WNWR 2019 — 6. COSTS AND FINANCING
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In the US, a 2016 audit by the US Office of the Inspector General concluded that the cost estimates should be based on the best available knowledge from research and operational experience. Yet, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) formula for estimating decommissioning costs is based on studies conducted between 1978 and 1980. The audit recommended that the funding formula be revaluated to determine whether a site-specific cost estimate would be more efficient. During the audit, an operator stated that the NRC’s minimum formula estimated decommissioning costs of US$600 million, while the site-specific decommissioning cost estimate done by the operator was around US$2.2 billion.256 In Germany, the cost of both decommissioning and long-term waste management is based on expert opinions. On behalf of the operators, the private company NIS (Siempelkamp) uses cost models for both types of light water reactors to estimate decommissioning cost by adjusting the strategy and the reactors in question. On behalf of the utilities, the private and utility-owned GNS estimated the costs for waste management based on schedules and cost estimates produced by the German Federal Office for Radiation Protection (BfS, now BfE) for the disposal facilities. The cost estimates produced by the private companies for the utilities are not public.257 DECOMMISSIONING COSTS As of today, only a few reactors have been decommissioned, while hundreds of plants worldwide are preparing to be decommissioned in the coming decades. In early 2018, 154 units were awaiting or are in various stages of decommissioning, while only 19 reactors (with a capacity of only around 6 GW) had been fully decommissioned (see Table 1).258 This poor outcome and a lack of country-specific decommissioning experience also leads to generally underestimated decommissioning costs. Nuclear power plants were built with operation in mind, and until now, most plants currently in the decommissioning process or entering it were built at a time when the idea of decommissioning was not yet fully conceptualized. As a result, countries have to approach decommissioning using trial-and-error methods.
A lack of country-specific experience leads to generally underestimated decommissioning costs. Nuclear power plants were built with operation in mind and at a time when the idea of decommissioning was not yet fully conceptualized. As a result, countries approach decommissioning using trial-and-error methods. In order to make different estimates between different countries comparable, the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) developed the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC), which recommends categorizing decommissioning costs into eleven distinct categories. However, most cost estimation methodologies do not use this classification. The cost estimations for decommissioning also heavily depend on the reactor technology and the decommissioning strategy. For example, at some plants in the US, large components such as the reactor pressure vessel and the steam generators were removed and disposed of in one piece, a strategy that heavily reduces costs. However, in Germany, large components must by law be taken apart on site. In general, the owners or licensees are responsible for developing cost estimates for decommissioning, which they submit periodically to the competent authority for review or approval (for example, every three years in Finland, and every five years in Switzerland). 256 US Office of the Inspector General 2016, Audit of NRC’s Decommissioning Funds Program, US Nuclear Regulatory
Commission, Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board. 257 Irrek, W., and Vorfeld, M. 2015, “Liquidity and valuation of assets in unrestricted funds from provisions set up for nuclear de-
commissioning, dismantling and disposal — Brief study”, Alliance 90/The Greens parliamentary group in the German Bundestag. 258 Schneider et al. 2018
