HOMELAND SECURITY Interview: Soft defences and managed retreat against climate change Dr Judy Lawrence, Senior Research Fellow at Victoria University Wellington’s Climate Change Research Institute, says that greater central government direction is needed on climate change adaptation. LoD: You’ve stated that the recent Nelson fires are a climate change warning for New Zealand. Are we likely to see more of the same, or can we expect worse? JL: Parts of New Zealand are expected to get dryer especially in the east. With this comes enhanced risk of fire in rural areas and where people are close to those areas. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report in 2014 categorised fire as a key risk for New Zealand. LoD: You’ve called for leadership in the form of a National Adaptation Plan for climate change, based on a national risk assessment. Who would carry out this risk assessment, who would devise the plan, and who would you expect be responsible for its implementation?
JL: This was a recommendation of the Climate Change Adaptation Technical Working Group (CCATWG) in 2018 and has now been included in the Zero Carbon Bill currently before Parliament. The first Climate Change Risk Assessment is currently being undertaken and the Bill envisages that the proposed Climate Change Commission would prepare the National Adaptation Plan based on the National Risk Assessment and do the second National Risk Assessment and review the National Adaptation Plan as an independent agency much like in the UK. The NAP would be done by the Government with reporting to the Climate Commission who would independently review and monitor its implementation. Local government and sectors would develop their own plans to complement the national adaptation plan. LoD: Hard defences against rising sea levels and the relocating of new development away from areas prone to flooding are capital intensive endeavours. Is there a need for more focused management of funds for adaptation (and for crisis response), a climate change war chest so to speak?
Dr Judy Lawrence, Senior Research Fellow at Victoria University Wellington’s Climate Change Research Institute.
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JL: The New Zealand Coastal Policy Statement 2010 specifically takes a precautionary approach and discourages hard defences as an adaptation option while encouraging soft defences and
managed retreat ahead of hard defences where practicable. The National Policy Statement (NPS) mandated in the Resource Management Act 1991 (RMA) has direction powers for local government to implement its policies. The RMA also has provisions to reduce hazard risks like sea-level rise and also to have particular regard to the effects of climate change. Those exercising functions under the RMA also must recognise and provide for the effects of significant natural hazards (this includes climate change impacts). All councils have the function of controlling the use of land for avoidance and mitigation of natural hazards. Regarding a “war chest”. Yes, this issue has been raised in a paper prepared by Jonathan Boston and myself in 2017. Some risks are different from others. Some can be adapted to more readily through preparation and the residual by the emergency services and the Defence establishment (note the residual becomes greater as the frequency of events increases and sea levels rise while we do not plan to avoid the risks). There is a case for a Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) Fund but it needs careful design to avoid moral hazard. We do want to see taxpayers money rewarding bad council or individual decisions on the one hand while cases of specific need are crowded out where decisions have been made that leave Line of Defence
