INTERNATIONAL
Defence Ministry sizes up the international security environment The just-released Ministry of Defence Statement of Intent 2020-2024 provides an assessment of the international security environment that rings the alarm on the democratic health of New Zealand’s Western allies. Published in August, the Statement of Intent articulates the Defence Ministry’s strategy and priorities for the next four years. The Ministry’s success, according to the Statement, depends on its ability to “understand and advise in changes and trends in the security environment,” and to this end the Statement delivers MOD’s first international security assessment since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
NZSM Chief Editor Nicholas Dynon is a frequent commentator on New Zealand’s defence and international security outlook
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NZSM
The Statement is being published at a time of uncertainty as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic,” writes Secretary of Defence Andrew Bridgman in his Introduction. “Although the full impact and implications will only become clear over time, the spread of COVID-19 is exacerbating a range of global security and economic challenges impacting on both our strategic and operating environments.” According to the Statement, the rapid onset and global spread of COVID-19 has placed strain on the very foundation of our security – the international rules-based order. This is of importance to New Zealand, which, as a small trade-dependent state, regards the maintenance of the ‘rules based order’ as a pre-requisite to its security. Two years ago, the Ministry’s Strategic Defence Policy Statement 2018 (SDPS) identified that the single
greatest threat to New Zealand is posed not by any one country but rather by the accelerating erosion of the international rules-based order. The Statement of Intent maintains this position. “The pandemic is intensifying existing geopolitical trends and exacerbating a range of security challenges,” continues the Statement. “Although the full impact and implications for global security will only become clear over time, the spread of COVID-19 has accentuated geopolitical shifts, tested the robustness of democratic governance, and increased social inequalities.” In terms of COVID’s economic impacts, the Statement notes the World Bank’s forecast of the worst global recession since World War II, with global unemployment expected to rise to its highest level since 1965. “The pandemic has reinforced that New Zealand’s security outlook may be shaped most powerfully by a combination of forces increasing pressure on the international rulesbased order, which will play out in newly potent ways close to home.” Painting a stark picture pitting powerful against small states, open societies against closed, and indeed open societies against their own liberal traditions, it lists these ‘combination of forces’ as: • States pursuing greater influence in ways that challenge international norms and at times
October/November 2020
