The Navy: What do our partners really think of us, hypothetically?

In this fictional brief, a Chief of Navy of a fictional regional power provides insights to his defence Minister on New Zealand’s maritime capability prior to navy to navy talks. A hypothetical by Andrew Watts.

Minister, In preparation for your upcoming talks with the New Zealand Minister of Defence, you asked for an assessment of the contribution made by New Zealand’s navy (the Royal New Zealand Navy - RNZN) to regional security. This assessment is provided herewith.

The RNZN is divided into a number of functional forces – combat, patrol, sustainment, and littoral warfare. The capabilities these forces bring to regional security are as follows:

Combat

The combat force is based on two Anzac class frigates. Although over 20 years old, their combat systems are in some respects near leading edge, particularly in relation to what is known as local area air defence. The Sea Ceptor missile with which they are equipped is very advanced, featuring “active homing” capability.

They can provide meaningful defence against aircraft and missiles to a small sea area containing up to about three “high value” units, such as our amphibious force ships. They have reasonable Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance capability, meaning that they can contribute to what is known as maritime domain awareness – an understanding of the maritime environment and who and what is operating in it.

Anti-submarine warfare capabilities are basic but are supplemented by high quality defensive systems against submarine launched torpedoes. In summary, these ships make a very useful contribution to maritime security in partnership with our own forces.

However, there are only two of them, which makes the likelihood of their availability in the event of a regional crisis somewhat problematic – probably no greater than 50%. Although New Zealand naval people have a well-deserved reputation for commitment and professionalism, the challenges that the RNZN must face in maintaining a naval combat workforce must be serious, given the typical personnel attrition rates that both their defence forces and our own must accept as permanent features of our capability landscape.

Sustainment

In 2020 the RNZN introduced into service a new replenishment ship, HMNZS Aotearoa. This ship is a very valuable addition to regional maritime capability. Replenishment ships are essential components of any maritime force and regionally there are very few of them. Aotearoa is comparable in capability to replenishment ships recently acquired by the Royal Navy and Royal Australian Navy.

Sealift

The acquisition of a sealift capability resulted from a major defence re-orientation following the election of a Labour government in 1999. The highly regarded, highly professional air combat capability based on modernised A-4K Skyhawk aircraft was abandoned, together with their planned replacement by the F-16. New Zealand land forces received a long overdue re-equipment, and funds which had been set aside for a third Anzac class frigate were instead allocated to sealift and patrol capabilities.

HMNZS Aotearoa sails from Devonport naval base to participate in RIMPAC 22.

Image courtesy NZDF.

The sealift element, HMNZS Canterbury, is based on an adapted roll on/roll off ferry design. This ship has proven itself in a range of maritime exercises and real world disaster relief operations.

Its main limitation is that it lacks a well dock, which means that it can only operate landing craft in almost calm sea states. In an operation which required forces to be landed quickly and in a specific area, this limitation could be serious, even in the Pacific.

Nonetheless, our own naval and land forces have operated extensively with Canterbury, and her capabilities are significant. In common with our own amphibious sealift ships, she requires escort by combatant forces in anything but the most benign threat conditions.

Patrol

The RNZN operates two Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPV) and two (formerly four) Inshore Patrol Vessels (OPV). These are not combat capabilities. They are equipped with sufficient armament for law enforcement operations and no more. They are also constructed to commercial standards, which means they are much less damage resistant than combat ships like frigates.

Nonetheless, these ships make a substantial contribution to regional security. They conduct patrols in support of Pacific nations’ maritime enforcement and domain awareness in the course of which they have built enduring relationships with Pacific security forces. We ourselves have noted that this type of engagement builds capacity and makes our Pacific partners more resistant to what we might consider malign external influences.

It could also be said that the RNZN patrol ships are “right sized” for the Pacific – our partners view their capabilities as more relevant to their needs than frigate/destroyer type ships. In summary, RNZN patrol capabilities make a significant contribution to collective regional security interests, and thus our own.

Hydrographic and Diving Support

The RNZN operates a highly capable, ex-commercial, hydrographic and diving support ship, HMNZS Manawanui. This acquisition is in some respects a case study in adaptability and innovation. For a much smaller outlay than a new build ship with much less capability would have required, the RNZN has acquired a highly versatile, highly capable ship of a type not found in our own navy or in that of our other regional partners.

If we were required to undertake a major underwater salvage operation, say to recover parts of a crashed aircraft, Manawanui’s capabilities would be invaluable, particularly as our own diving and hydrographic specialists are used to working with their New Zealand counterparts.

Littoral Operations

The RNZN maintains a small but highly professional littoral operations capability. The Operational Diving Team is able to conduct expeditionary reconnaissance and mine countermeasures operations, albeit with equipment limitations that are being addressed. Littoral operations teams routinely operate from Manawanui.

Sustainment and Availability

As indicated above, RNZN personnel have a reputation for commitment and professionalism. Nonetheless, the range of capabilities that they operate must create serious sustainment challenges. Each type of ship operates different platform and mission systems, creating multiple supply chains and training pipelines which even a navy as professional as the RNZN must have great difficulty in addressing.

Assessment

Our region faces a wide range of serious security threats, including great power competition and what appears to be the imminent collapse of the rules based order on which our security and prosperity has hitherto been based. New forms of aggression are being encountered at sea in the form of “grey zone” tactics, responses to which require a high level of naval presence.

Our own resources are insufficient for the level of presence required; the support of our security partners not only makes up that deficiency but also signals to aggressors and the world at large that threats to our maritime sovereignty will not go unchallenged.

The contribution made by the RNZN to regional security in the form of patrol, sustainment and sealift capability is substantial as explained above. We would not wish to see any of these capabilities abandoned or reduced. However, the form of maritime support that we most require is naval combat capability.

The upgraded RNZN frigates are capable combatants, and their presence would add to the overall deterrent and combat value of regional naval forces. However, their availability is problematic, as there are only two of them.

Our partners defence capability investments are a matter for their governments, but our interests would be better served if our New Zealand friends could offer naval combat capability on a more frequent and sustained basis.

If additional frigates are beyond their means, they could perhaps consider more specialised and thus affordable combat capability. For instance, our region abounds in narrow choke points through which shipping must pass and which are vulnerable to a range of air, surface and sub-surface threats, include asymmetric “swarming” attacks.

Combat capability effective in such zones would free up larger multi-mission combatants such as those which form our own naval combat force for “high end” operations, including theatre antisubmarine warfare and area air defence.

I am not suggesting that you seek to influence your New Zealand counterpart in any particular capability direction. However, should the concept of defence “complementarity” arise in discussion, the above example may provide a useful reference point.

In summary, the existing New Zealand naval fleet makes a significant contribution to regional maritime security. It is flexible, versatile, and its contribution to Pacific security in particular is noteworthy. Its people have a high reputation for commitment and professionalism.

However, it is assessed that wide system diversity presents major sustainment and availability challenges. Viewed purely through the lens of our own interests, a New Zealand Navy that was able to make a more regular and sustained naval combat presence contribution would be welcome. Whether this comes about or not is solely a matter for the New Zealand government.