Military Headcount: A numbers game

Defence personnel numbers are lower than they’ve ever been, writes Ross Browne, providing the Defence Policy Review with some challenging calculations.

As the Government’s Defence Policy Review slowly builds momentum, personnel numbers and the ability for NZDF to have an impactful contribution to support New Zealand’s foreign and domestic interests are topical.

The harsh reality is that Defence personnel numbers are lower than they’ve ever been relative to New Zealand’s population.

Size matters. Numbers create career opportunities, help population affinity with roles and missions, and shape the impact Defence can make supporting national objectives.

An analysis of a century of Defence personnel data shows that today, there are just two Regular personnel in the armed forces for every 1,000 civilians in the population. That’s down from about five per 1,000 in the 1950s and 1960s and between three to four per 1,000 in the 1970s and 1980s.

At its peak during World War II, Defence numbered some 150,000 and accounted for about eight percent of the total population, or 80 per 1,000 people.

Aside from a brief spike during the Korean War, Regular numbers remained relatively consistent at about 12,000 throughout the Cold War period.

The 1990s brought a steady decline in headcount, with almost 4,000 regulars (or about 30 percent of the total force) lost by the early 2000s.

Afghanistan involvement saw numbers pick up again and grow by 1,000 between 2005 and 2011, peaking at close to 10,000.

Once some 2,700 territorials and 3,000 civilian staff are included, the total size of the NZDF in 2021 was about 15,000. However, on a per capita basis the size of the defence force remains at record low levels of 1.9 per 1,000 people.

A uniformed comparison

In contrast, Police has seen a strong increase in numbers in recent years, keeping pace with population growth.

In 1990 there were more than twice as many Regular Defence personnel than there were Sworn Police. Police numbers recently surpassed Defence for first time.

Army of 6,000?

The 2019 Defence Capability Plan headlined Army growth to 6,000 personnel by 2035. Army Regulars haven’t exceeded 6,000 personnel since 1953. In 1953 that meant Army had 3.2 people per 1,000 of population. In 2019, the ratio was 1.3 people – roughly the same as Australia’s.

So What?

The devil is always in the detail, and commentators scrutinising the output of the upcoming review should be mindful of where headcount is applied, and what it means in a relative sense.

Today’s Defence Force undertakes a whole host of environmental, estate and facilities, and administrative IT tasks that the Cold War force didn’t. All of that reduces headcount available for the unique tasks the military is suited to. As Australia has just announced, a firm commitment to structures that deliver capability in the near term is where impact will be measured.