DEFENCE
The Next Three Years: Less deployments, less dollars for the NZDF Former Defence Minister Wayne Mapp forecasts a decline in NZDF deployments over the next three years, and less money to spend. For the time being, he writes, deployments and spending should be targeted closer to home.
Hon Dr Wayne Mapp QSO was New Zealand’s Minister of Defence and Minister of Science and Innovation from 2008 to 2011.
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The final withdrawal of NZDF personnel from Afghanistan will take place this May. By then New Zealand will have fewer NZDF personnel on overseas deployment than at any time over the last 25 years. It is therefore timely to look ahead for the next three years, being the current term of this government. The next three years is likely to be a time of minimal deployments overseas, and also a time of relatively modest defence procurements. Let’s look at each of these in turn. Over the next three years there will be a lot spoken and written about the rise of China’s military power. However, China’s rise will not affect NZDF deployments. It is unlikely that New Zealand will join the freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea. Other than regular freedom of navigation exercises, China and US tensions will not result in major new deployments in the region, except for a possible build-up of US air and naval assets on their existing bases in Guam and the Northern Marianas. Although there is already much talk about the military threat to Taiwan, the actual prospects of an invasion are minimal. China does not have the military capability, neither do they have any real incentive to do so. The risks vastly outweigh the gains. Any action, at least within the next five to ten years, will be little more than sabre rattling. What else could happen that will engage New Zealand?
The situation in the Middle East is unlikely to get worse, certainly not on the scale of the last 20 years. More likely it will remain similar to the present, or in fact, improve. It is likely that Iran-US relations will get better as the US rejoins the Iranian nuclear deal. In that case, the NZDF is unlikely to be further engaged in Middle East Affairs. This leaves two scenarios. The first being continuing instability in the Sahel region. New Zealand might contribute a small number of forces under UN auspices. The other scenario is continuing climate and natural disasters in the South Pacific. These tend to be dealt with as they arise and from out of New Zealand. The South Pacific may well be the forcing issue for the NZDF. Since international deployments outside of the South Pacific are unlikely, there will be an incentive for the NZDF to build skills that are relevant to HADR. There will be opportunities for HADR deployments to provide permanent benefits for the host nations, particularly civil infrastructure for the more remote South Pacific Islands. For instance, an airfield for Tokelau. There will also be opportunities in New Zealand for the NZDF to expand the range of things they do. The Limited Service Volunteers (LSV) provides military style training to young people who gain from adventurous activity undertaken within a disciplined environment. The LSV concept could be expanded so it reaches a wider group. Line of Defence
