INTERNATIONAL SECURITY New Zealand’s emerging Five Eyes challenge Dr Wayne Mapp writes that a new cold war has broken out and that New Zealand cannot avoid being drawn in. Staying on the right side of history will require deft diplomacy and smart strategy.
Hon Dr Wayne Mapp QSO was New Zealand’s Minister of Defence and Minister of Science and Innovation from 2008 to 2011.
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Over the next five years New Zealand will face its biggest foreign policy challenge since the nuclear free issue of 35 years ago. As with that issue, the essence of the challenge will be the relationship that New Zealand has with its traditional partners and allies. The dichotomy is easily described. As the Prime Minister notes, Australia is our oldest and most important ally. However, an increasingly assertive China is our most important trading partner. The Chinese relationship extends beyond trade. China is also a major source of investment and migrants. A nation as large as China is inevitably going to take up much of New Zealand’s diplomatic bandwidth. It is no mistake that New Zealand’s embassy in Beijing is among our largest. For many decades New Zealand has been able to successfully balance our major security and trading relationships. Beijing understood that New Zealand’s core security relationships were with our traditional Five Eyes partners. This is still the case, but there is now much greater tension in maintaining the balance. Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta clearly understood this with her Taniwha and Dragon speech. However, being aware of the challenge facing New Zealand is not the same as solving it. It is clear that a new Cold War has broken out, with our Five Eyes partners on one side and China on the other. Can New Zealand avoid being drawn in? In my view, the answer is probably not. New Zealand won’t be able to avoid carrying some of the increasingly heavy obligations of the expectations of our Five Eyes partners. The trick
will be doing enough to be counted as a creditworthy member of the Five Eyes Club, but not doing so much as to unnecessarily antagonise China. That is not going to be easy. Australia is making its choice abundantly clear. Unlike New Zealand, Australia is a formal ally of the United States. Successive Australian Prime Ministers, whether they are Labor or Liberal, have made it very clear that Australia’s most important international relationship is with the United States. It is the bedrock of Australian security, and Australia will do what it takes to be within the first circle of United States security partners. That means comprehensive military interaction, including the basing of core United States military assets and ongoing exercises. There can be no doubt that if the alliance relationship requires joint freedom of navigation patrols in the South China Sea, then Australia will participate. The ‘war drums’ rhetoric out of Australia clearly indicate that they will do more if necessary. New Zealand is not an ally of the United States. That means we can do less and, in any event, because of our size, will always do less. However, we can’t do nothing. Not if we value the Australian alliance. This is where the test will lie. New Zealanders do not like their country to be pressured into taking positions just because our other larger partners expect New Zealand to do so. New Zealand’s senior politicians and foreign policy establishment are going to have to work hard to determine what New Zealand can be reasonably expected to do as part of the Five Eyes partnership. Line of Defence
