Line of Defence Magazine - Spring (September) 2022

Page 25

New Zealand’s Defence and National Security Magazine Line of Defence Issue 25 • Spring 2022 www.defsec.net.nz Defence: NZDF maintains strong tempo in Pacific Aerospace: NZ firsts fuelling space sector takeoff International: Climate change is complicating things Homeland: Retail crime? It’s the economy stupid!. Cover image courtesy of Fiona Harding.
MQ-9B SeaGuardian • Mu lti-agen c y I S R fo r re sour ce pr otection, disaster response, c r i t ical infrastructure monitoring and security across land and m a ritime e nvi r on me nt s • Capable of securin g Ne w Ze al and’s vast area of interest – from th e m a in l a nd t o off-shor e ter ri tor ie s • Lo ng en d ur a nce c ap ab le o f suppor ting m issions in the South P a c if i c or S ou thern O ce an s Cost-effective, multi-role ISR THE MOST VERSATILE MULTI-DOMAIN SURVEILLANCE CAPABILITY ga-asi.com ©2021 GENERAL ATOMICS AERONAUTICAL SYSTEMS, INC. Airborne Situational Awareness 24/7, Worldwide

CONTENTS

Kia ora and welcome to the Spring 2022 issue of Line of Defence Magazine! In this special 25th issue of Line of Defence we welcome a new addition to the magazine – our new Aerospace section!

The launch of the Government’s Aerospace Strategy at the inaugural New Zealand Aerospace Summit in Christchurch is just one of the many recent developments shaping Aotearoa’s burgeoning aerospace sector. This country has joined the commercial ‘space race’, and it’s fitting given the strategic and security implications of the outer atmosphere and space that we devote a section of the magazine to it.

Line of Defence’s Aerospace section is a permanent new inclusion within the magazine, and we look forward to it becoming a key platform for news and analysis on this increasingly important sector.

With a Defence Policy Statement somewhere on (or over) the horizon, Dr Wayne Mapp and Professor Alexander Gillespie weigh in on what Defence capabilities the government should be eyeing and how much it should be looking to spend. 2% of GDP anyone?

Climate is a big topic in this issue of the magazine, and rightly so. According to SIPRI’s report Environment of Peace: Security in a New Era of Risk, an eminent advisory panel – which includes former PM Helen Clark – points to now ample evidence that the adverse weather impacts of climate change are converging with other security threats to create new and complex crises.

It’s a topic that echoes throughout this issue, with Dr Kevin Trenberth noting that climate extremes are creating disasters on top of disasters, Insurance Council of New Zealand CE Tim Grafton imploring local councils to start investing in climate resilience, and New Zealand and Australia’s respective disaster management agencies seeking greater cooperation and a more connected approach.

Also of note in this issue of Line of Defence is the announcement of Aotearoa’s new ambassador to China, career diplomat Grahame Morton. He’s got significant China experience and a CV reflecting a track record of engagement with some of our key international partners, but he walks into a role in which he will likely be tested in new potentially unprecedented ways.

While no one in Wellington should now be under the illusion that Beijing considers New Zealand’s claims of foreign policy independence to be credible, we can still be diplomatic about it… and we should be. As geopolitical tensions inevitably rise in the so-called Indo-Pacific, a key to successful navigation of these stormy seas will be a relationship with Beijing in which the potential for strategic miscalculation is minimised.

Importantly, I’d like to give special thanks to our excellent sponsors who have made this 25th issue of LoD possible: General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Nova Systems, Oshkosh Defense, and PFG Group. By partnering with Line of Defence Magazine, these organisations contribute to an informed and vibrant Defence, Aerospace and National Security sector.

Nicholas Dynon, Auckland.

CONTRIBUTORS & INTERVIEWEES

Hon Dr Wayne Mapp QSO Prof Alexander Gillespie

Oshkosh Defense General Atomics Aeronautical PFG Group Ade Morris (Nova Systems) Dr Nicholas Borroz

Dr Kevin Trenberth Nicholas Dynon George Moawad

EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD

Dr Peter Greener

Prof Rouben Azizian

Dr Bridgette-Sullivan Taylor Dr Reuben Steff

Dr John Battersby Paul Howard

Debbie Howarth John Deal

Jennie Vickers Douglas Pauling

Hon Dr Wayne Mapp QSO John Campbell MNZM

Ruth Currie DSD

Pat Cullen

SPONSORS & PARTNERS

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Summer - December

Main themes: Landforces 2022 review, Air Domain; Women in Security, Avalon 2023.

Copy Deadline: 20 November 2022 Publication: 05 December 2022

INDUSTRY ASSOCIATIONS

Chief Editor: Publisher: Nicholas Dynon Craig Flint M: +64 (0)22 366 3691 T: +64 (0) 274 597 621

E: nick@defsec.net.nz E: craig@defsec.net.nz

Postal 27 West Cresent, Te Puru 3575, Thames RD5, New Zealand

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5Line of Defence ISSN 2463-5774 (Print) • ISSN 2463-6258 (Online) INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Defsec Media Limited publishes Line of Defence, FireNZ Magazine and New Zealand Security Magazine premier publications covering industry sectors that help keep Kiwis safe. Find us online www.defsec.net.nz Copyright: No article or part thereof may be reproduced without prior consent of the publisher. Disclaimer: The information contained in this publication is given in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be reliable and accurate. However, neither the publishers nor any person involved in the preparation of this publication accept any form of liability whatsoever for its contents including advertisements, editorials, opinions, advice or information or for any consequences from its use. HOMELAND SECURITY 40 Emergency monitoring centre opened to keep New Zealand safer 41 Insurance Council calls on councils to prioritise climate resilience 42 The Evolution of Physical Security Systems 44 What’s behind New Zealand’s Retail Crime Wave 46 Joint IPCA/OPC investigation recommends overhaul of Police privacy practices 47 Trans-Tasman Cooperation on disaster management 35 2022’s supercharged summer of climate extremes 36 CTBT successes remain limited as several countries yet to ratify 37 New Ambassador to China announced 38 SIPRI Report: World stumbling into a new era of risk AEROSPACE 6 Quiet Achiever: Hybrid-electric Joint Light Tactical Vehicle 8 RIMPAC 2022 Underscores Game-Changing Value of MQ-9B SeaGuardian 11 RNZAF flight signals start of Antarctic summer season 12 Strengthening trade across the Tasman 14 NZDF working with Pacific partners to support regional security 15 P-8A Poseidon: Maritime surveillance capability delivery on schedule 16 Nova Systems Solving Challenges for the NZDF 18 Construction begins on NZDF/ MFAT Leadership Centre in Tonga 20 What a realistic increase in Defence spending can deliver 22 Nukes, allies, weapons and cost: 4 big questions NZ’s defence review must address DEFENCE 24 Kea Aerospace unveils NZ-first stratospheric aircraft design 25 New Aerospace Engineering Degree Launches In Christchurch 26 Trans-Tasman partnership to provide world-class satellite positioning services 28 Christchurch-based Fabrum joins team pushing aviation towards hydrogen flight 30 Microgravity Experimentation Services on the Rise 33 Clock ticking on New Zealand Space Policy Review

Quiet Achiever: Hybrid-electric Joint Light Tactical Vehicle

Oshkosh Defense’s hybrid-electric eJLTV will offer silent drive, extended silent watch, increased fuel economy and exportable power, enabling its use in combat and reconnaissance scenarios.

Early 2022 saw the unveiling by Oshkosh Defense of the first-ever silent drive hybrid-electric Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV), the eJLTV. The new hybrid-electric variant builds upon the performance and protection of the proven Oshkosh Defense JLTV.

Since winning the $6.7 billion US Army Joint Light Tactical Vehicle Contract in 2015, Oshkosh Defense has delivered around 15,000 JLTVs to the US Army and Marines.

Hybrid evolution

Retaining the base JLTV engine and transmission, an integrated motor generator and a high voltage energy storage system were added to the eJLTV as part of the powertrain, delivering 20% better fuel economy and increased exportable power.

The addition of silent drive, extended silent watch eliminate noise and heat signatures associated with diesel engines, enabling the eJLTV

to be used more stealthily in combat and reconnaissance scenarios.

Although the current system adds an estimated 1,200 lbs. to the base vehicle, the eJLTV is capable of handling the same challenging terrain and offering the same level of protection as the JLTV.

“For many years, we’ve been developing, testing and evolving hybrid-electric variants of our heavy and medium-duty tactical wheeled vehicles,” said John Bryant, Executive Vice President for Oshkosh Corporation and President of Oshkosh Defense.

“Now, with the eJLTV, we’re offering our military customers an affordable way to electrify their light tactical wheeled vehicle fleet without compromising the off-road performance or superior protection necessary in combat operations.”

Charging, battery, and exportable power

The eJLTV’s 30kWh capacity lithium-ion battery charges while the diesel engine is in use, and can fully recharge within 30 minutes. This eliminates the need for a charging

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infrastructure, which remains one of the most significant challenges to the widespread electrification of the tactical wheeled vehicle fleet.

The battery also provides a 115 kilowatt power-take off for electrical equipment, so troops can avoid the need to use separate, noisy generators in the field. It also eliminates the need for a towed generator.

The eJLTV can be configured to supply export power at 240Vac, 208Vac, or 480Vac using military grade power inverters. More than 250kW is also available in 20 second bursts.

Conventional Mode

The traditional operational mode of the JLTV (diesel engine).

Silent Drive Mode

In this mode the vehicle utilises the battery and integrated motor generator for power – no engine.

Silent drive reduces overall risk to the Warfighter during approach by eliminating the noise and heat associated with the diesel engine. When stationary in silent drive

mode, Silent Watch capability increases by more than three times (2.5-8.5 hours).

An operator can seamlessly transition from Silent Drive mode to conventional mode with the switch of a button. There is no need to stop or turn off the vehicle.

Hybrid Mode

In this mode the vehicle utilises the diesel engine and the battery, reducing idle time, improving fuel economy, and enhancing acceleration. This mode also includes active idle and start/stop functionality.

Active idle manages vehicle readiness in extended idle situations. The vehicle utilises the battery when the parking brake in engaged. Active idle saves fuel and reduces engine hours, thereby increasing PMCS intervals.

This is accomplished by leveraging the onboard energy storage to cool/heat the cabin, run C4ISR systems, and start/stop the engine automatically, keeping the vehicle ready for action.

During start/stop the engine shuts off when the vehicle stops and restarts when the vehicle accelerates again.

Setting the standard

Oshkosh Defense and its parent company, Oshkosh Corporation, have a rich history in electrification and are pushing the boundaries of innovation for customers.

Oshkosh Defense is a global leader in the design, production and sustainment of best-in-class military vehicles, technology solutions and mobility systems. Oshkosh develops and applies emerging technologies that advance safety and mission success. Setting the industry standard for sustaining fleet readiness, Oshkosh ensures every solution is supported worldwide throughout its entire life cycle.

For more information please visit: www.oshkoshdefense.com

The vehicle can operate in three modes:
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RIMPAC 2022 Underscores Game-Changing Value of MQ-9B SeaGuardian

New and current UAS prove ready for new roles and missions in major international naval exercise

Unmanned aircraft have always contained virtually limitless promise, though sometimes people need to be able to see to believe.

A generation of American troops, their allies and leaders got to know the MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper as intelligence and counterterrorism tools, with important combat air support roles, too. But could these and newer aircraft play a different position in different environments elsewhere?

The answer is a resounding yes – one the U.S. military, its allies and other civil security agencies are expanding rapidly.

Some recent examples included the diverse tasking undertaken by unmanned aircraft systems in support of the international Rim of the Pacific 2022 exercise, known as RIMPAC, the world’s largest event of its kind. Twenty-six nations including New Zealand, more than 25,000 personnel, 38 surface ships and more than 30 unmanned systems all took part in weeks of simulated combat and other operations in the Pacific off Hawaii.

At the centre of it all was the MQ-9 Reaper and its newer sibling, the MQ-9B SeaGuardian, which served as the hub and the spokes

of vast, integrated air, surface and subsurface operations.

Unique capabilities

The MQ-9B SeaGuardian can stay aloft longer than any crewed aircraft, giving maritime and defence commanders platforms that can do things they wouldn’t be able to accomplish any other way. With many hours of endurance, the aircraft can search huge sections of ocean, keep track of targets – groups of surface vessels, or submarines –for long periods of time, serve as networking nodes for the battle force and much more.

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An MQ-9B SeaGuardian, operated for the U.S. Navy in the exercise by manufacturer General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc., notched a number of first-ever milestones.

Over 15 missions totalling more than 111 flight hours, the aircraft took off and landed automatically over satellite and handled virtually any assignment to support the exercise, assist specific units and handle multiple assignments simultaneously and seamlessly.

The aircraft used its electrooptical infrared sensor to positively identify targets at long range. It used its synthetic aperture radar to feed detailed surveillance to other units. And it used its suite of intelligence and networking equipment to nest deeply within the secure communications and operations of the expansive exercise.

The SeaGuardian hunted for submarines, conducted long-range targeting, collected electronic and signals intelligence, managed radar tracks and more all at the same time, over many hours of long-endurance operation above the ocean.

Advanced sensing, integrated operations

The aircraft’s multiple sensors and other capabilities reinforce each other: it might, for example, detect electronic intelligence suggesting that a distant contact might be present, then cue its radar to search for that ship, which enables it to detect the vessel, and then it can look at the ship with its own electronic eyes and provide full-motion video to its human operators and share data to anyone else who needs it in real time. During RIMPAC, the MQ-9B networked with many nations’ surface ships and aircraft, such as the P-8A Poseidon.

These kinds of capabilities are what make the MQ-9B one of the most in-demand aircraft of its class. The United Kingdom’s Royal Air Force, Japan’s Coast Guard and others are acquiring them to carry out these kinds of missions and many others, including civil surveillance and reconnaissance missions.

New users prize the ability to adapt these aircraft to their specific needs. An aircraft can flex easily from missions over land to those

over coastal areas or the open ocean. Or it can flex from supporting naval operations to a real-life open-ocean rescue, as another unmanned aircraft – an MQ-9A Reaper – did during RIMPAC.

These aircraft also can serve as the centerpiece for humanitarian assistance and disaster recovery operations. It can help with the fight against wildfires. It can monitor wildlife and perform important resource protection tasks over broad areas. A nation such as New Zealand could adopt all of these roles and more.

RIMPAC and other exercises have proved again that these aircraft are valuable units on their own, patrolling wide areas of ocean or an important strait, or over land, to provide constant awareness about what’s taking place in the area on or below the surface. Artificial intelligence and machine learning mean that much of this surveillance can take place without human attention, if necessary – but when the aircraft makes a detection, it alerts the users.

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SeaGuardian also has the ability to do more than just scan. It can assess if things look unusual: if two vessels are too close together, for example – which could suggest they’re trans-shipping oil or other contraband – or if a vessel is sailing through an area without broadcasting on the Automatic Identification System, which might suggest it’s trying to evade detection. MQ-9B isn’t fooled.

These aircraft also are invaluable when matched with other units, whether aircraft like the P-8A or other surface or airborne civil surveillance platforms.

Manned-unmanned teaming GA-ASI’s extensive experience with manned-unmanned teaming gives it and MQ-9B a huge advantage. The SeaGuardian’s crew work from a ground control station that can be sited anywhere and integrate into the same secure command and control networks as any other unit. The aircraft can be re-tasked as needed or take on unplanned assignments just as any other unit might do.

It also can be additive to many other operations. For example, imagine a crewed maritime patrol aircraft dropped a line of sonobuoys – special sensors that sit under the ocean surface to detect submarines. But that conventional aircraft runs low on fuel and must return to base. MQ-9B could take on the task of monitoring the data from those sonobuoys over a lengthy period, as it handles its other duties. Or MQ9B might drop sonobuoys of its own, monitor them and, when it detected a contact, call in a crewed aircraft for further investigation.

All these advantages scale up when more aircraft are available. Working in shifts with several aircraft in a squadron, where one replaces another on a task, or several operating together with others relieving them, maritime commanders obtain constant, realtime, vast domain awareness that isn’t possible in any other way.

The promise afforded by these kinds of operations over multiple domains – open ocean, coastal

areas, land and more – is what has prompted the U.S. Marine Corps to add the MQ-9A Reaper as the centerpiece of its strategy for advanced expeditionary basing operations. With a growing fleet of aircraft and a dedicated military occupational specialty devoted to unmanned aircraft operations, the Marines are a great example of a sea service taking advantage of new ways to exploit what UAS have to offer.

As RIMPAC and other military exercises this year have shown, there’s virtually no limit to what the MQ-9 series of aircraft can achieve. Multi-domain and multi-mission capabilities for cross-department and cross-agency employment spanning civil and defence applications appear well suited to the requirements of New Zealand.

With broad geographical areas of interest, a small workforce and limits in other resources, the cost-effective and versatile MQ-9B SeaGuardian has the ability to provide a muchneeded solution; and it’s available now.

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RNZAF flight signals start of Antarctic summer season

The first group of New Zealand Defence Force personnel have arrived in Antarctica on the Royal New Zealand Air Force’s first ice flight for the 2022/23 season.

Each year, through Operation Antarctica, the NZDF provides support to Antarctica science and research programmes, including air transport, New Zealand Antarctic Programme personnel, and personnel for the New Zealand/United States Joint Logistics Pool.

Over the 2022/23 summer season, the NZDF will deploy around 200 personnel in a variety of roles to support New Zealand and United States’ Antarctic programmes.

According to an NZDF media release, the flight of 20 September was the first of six return flights scheduled for RNZAF Boeing 757 aircraft, taking passengers and cargo to the continent between now and March next year. Another nine flights by RNZAF C-130 Hercules aircraft are scheduled between November and January.

Over the season, 27 personnel will be based at Harewood Terminal, assisting air movements of cargo and passengers on Antarctic flights including those of other nations.

Nine NZDF personnel were on the RNZAF Boeing’s first flight south. They will be using their skills in logistics, as supply technicians, and in communications as part of the Scott Base Support Team. The group also includes a Navy chef, and two plant operators who operate heavy machinery.

Those working as watch keepers and in communications at Scott Base work 24/7 shifts, keeping in contact with scientists working in the field, with helicopter and fixed-wing

aircraft operations, and providing safety checks and communications with staff working off base.

Other personnel being deployed to Antarctica include firefighters, fuel operators, a ship offload-team, a driver support team, instructors for Antarctic field training, and a 10-strong Army light engineering team who will help with building maintenance and construction tasks.

Antarctica NZ is undertaking redevelopment of Scott Base, some materials for which were delivered to Antarctica earlier this year on Navy tanker HMNZS Aotearoa’s maiden voyage to the ice.

Senior National Officer for Operation Antarctica, Major Lucy Wright, says the deployment is a special one for NZDF personnel, who use their skills and training to

support important scientific and research programmes while living and working in the unique Antarctic environment.

There will also be a special moment for the youngest member of the NZDF team who has the honour of lowering the winter flag and raising the summer flag, marking the handover from the team wintering over to the incoming summer team.

“It’s an opportunity of a lifetime. They might experience temperatures of -40 degrees Celsius, run their first marathon on ice, learn firsthand about scientific and research developments, keep in touch with research teams who are out in the field for more than two months, see wildlife and ice formations,” she said.

“Whatever role they’re in, they’re part of something special.”

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Strengthening trade across the Tasman

The return of direct international flights between Tasmania to New Zealand this year is a welcome relief for business. Providing an easy connection across the Tasman Sea has opened the possibilities between the two islands for trade and tourism.

Tasmanian based business PFG was invited recently to participate in a Trade mission in New Zealand, led by Tasmania’s Minister for Primary Industries and Water, Jo Palmer. PFG’s CEO, Robert Inches joined in the opportunity to build upon existing relationships, increase awareness, and secure business between New Zealand and Tasmania. Accompanied by other like-minded SMEs from Tasmania with relevant capability, the itinerary covered the main centres of Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch, along with the Tasman Nelson region to visit defence and emergency service industries.

Delegates gained valuable insight into New Zealand’s ingenuity and strengthened partnerships during their four-day tour. Stopping by

Shark Seating and at Hamilton Jet’s Christchurch factory provided the opportunity to share industry knowledge. An excursion on ARIA; a hybrid-electric vessel, bolstered further trading links between PFG and Hamilton Jet.

PFG’s CEO, Robert Inches said ‘We have a solid relationship with our Kiwi counterparts, and events like these enable us to strengthen these ties. Tasmania and New Zealand have a lot in common, including great food, amazing scenery, ingenuity, and a long maritime history. We are able to work with New Zealand suppliers to grow our domestic supply chain, develop their product range and capability, to better meet our requirements and bring onshore components that have previously been sourced from overseas’.

PFG is renowned for creating durable, high-quality products for harsh environments - when failure is not an option. With over forty

years’ experience in the design, manufacture, and sales of polymer and marine products to the maritime security, aquaculture, mining, and civil construction sectors.

PFG’s The Sentinel range is manufactured in Tasmania with robust partnerships within the New Zealand industry ensuring a reliable supply chain. This enables PFG to provide durable vessels which incorporate critical design and operational components that set a benchmark in safety and performance and offer in-service support in collaboration with trusted local partners.

Specifically designed for the harsh conditions of the Southern Ocean, vessels are configured to individual requirements, targeting safety for all personnel and crew. The Sentinel range are constructed using traditional boatbuilding methods and are made from High Density Polyethylene (HDPE), a next generation boatbuilding

PFG CEO Robert Inches on the right during the Trade mission
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material with unparalleled safety and durability properties. These boats have superior longevity, will not corrode, and are incredibly strong, buoyant, and virtually maintenance-free. HDPE’s vibration absorption properties dampen noise, minimise slamming and personnel

fatigue, while its high stability and responsive handling reduce rollover risk.

To ensure the boats are truly fit for military purpose, PFG established a Defence Advisory Committee comprising recently retired naval officers to Flag level

(both ex-Royal Australian and Royal New Zealand Navy) and a retired water police inspector. This committee has provided extensive guidance in the development of The Sentinel watercraft. Our initiative in establishing this committee is industry leading.

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NZDF working with Pacific partners to support regional security

From tactical field training in Fiji to fighting illegal fishing on the high seas, the NZDF has been maintaining a steady tempo of activity across the Pacific.

NZ Army conducts mortar firing and tactical field training with partners in Fiji

For the first time in more than 27 years, the New Zealand Army has undertaken 81mm mortar demonstrations as part of Exercise Cartwheel in Fiji.

According to a 22 September report, the tactical field training exercise was an US and Fiji-led multinational exercise conducted in the Nausori Highlands in Fiji and involved defence personnel from the Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF), United States Army Pacific, British Army and Australian Defence Force.

Located in the interior of Fiji’s main island Viti Levu, the Nausori Highlands rise to the east of Nadi on the island’s western side.

A total of 55 combat soldiers from 1st (NZ) Brigade in Linton and Burnham participated in the exercise, designed to enhance capability in both urban and jungle environments. Training also included demonstrations of sustained fire machine guns, section attacks and ambushes, reacting to enemy indirect firing and ethical decision-making scenarios.

A light infantry platoon from Delta Company, 2nd/1st Battalion Royal New Zealand Infantry Regiment (RNZIR), also conducted reconnaissance operations, section and platoon harbours drills, survival and tracking training.

HMNZS Wellington combats illegal, unreported and unregulated Pacific fishing

An NZDF 05 September media release reports that offshore patrol vessel HMNZS Wellington has completed two fishing monitoring operations in the Pacific as New Zealand contributes to the battle against illegal fishing.

Nearly 60 percent of the world’s tuna stocks is fished in the Pacific and the Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency (FFA) believes approximately 192,000 tons of tuna is associated with illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing there each year.

With Ministry for Primary Industry (MPI) officers embarked, HMNZS Wellington and her crew of 60 supported the annual fisheries policing operation, Operation Nasse, for the Pacific Quadrilateral Defence

Coordination Group, which includes Australia, France, New Zealand and the United States of America.

The operation involved identifying, hailing and boarding vessels of interest on the high seas of the South West Pacific.

HMNZS Wellington was assisted in its work by a Royal New Zealand Air Force P-3K2 Orion, a United States Coast Guard C-130 Hercules, the French naval patrol vessel BSAOM D’Entrecasteaux patrol ship and a Falcon 200 Gardian aircraft from the French Armed Forces in New Caledonia.

In total, 18 surveillance flights and 14 high seas boardings and inspections were undertaken.

Eight potential compliance issues were identified and these were reported to the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission and the flag states of the vessels.

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P-8A Poseidon: Maritime surveillance capability delivery on schedule

Fabricated, painted, test flown and now receiving a systems fitout, the first of four P-8A Poseidon maritime surveillance aircraft is just about ready to make the journey to its new home in Aotearoa.

The first of four P-8A Poseidon’s is due to arrive in New Zealand in December. The remaining three aircraft that make up this significant investment in strengthening Aotearoa’s maritime surveillance capability will be delivered to the Ministry of Defence by April 2023.

Official keeling ceremony took place in Wichita, Kansas, in March this year, ahead of the fuselages making their way to the Boeing factory in April. In July, the first of the P-8As rolled out of the paint factory, and in August the first P-8A got airborne for the first time, completing a test flight ahead of its systems fitout.

The project is on schedule to replace the P-3K2 Orion fleet from 2023. Like the Orions, the Poseidon aircraft will deliver support to New Zealand’s peace and security operations, maritime surveillance, resource protection, humanitarian

and disaster responses, here in New Zealand, the Pacific, and further abroad.

The P-8A Poseidon is a multimission aircraft that was developed to replace the P-3C Orion for longrange maritime patrol in the United States Navy. It has also been selected by Australia, the United Kingdom and Norway and a variant is used by India. The P-8A has been designed and purpose built to patrol maritime environments and monitor vessels on and below the surface.

The P-8A is a military aircraft based on the commercial Boeing

Statistics

Aircraft P-3K2 Orion P-8A Poseidon

Wingspan 30.4m (99ft) 37.64m (123.6 ft)

Length 36m (117ft) 39.47m (129.5 ft)

Height 0.3m (34ft) 12.83m 942.1 ft)

Propulsion Four Allison T56-A 14 engines, Two CFM56-7B engines (4,600 shaft horsepower) 27,300 lbs thrust

Speed 630km/h (340kts) 902km/h (490 kts)

Range 1,000nm with 4 hours on station 1,200 nm with 4 hours on station

737-800 fuselage. However, it has been substantially modified to include a weapons bay, hard points, increased electrical generation capacity, Boeing 737-900 wings, and structural strengthening for military operations.

The aircraft is produced by Boeing Defense, Space and Security in Seattle, USA.

The P-8A has modern surveillance sensors, electronic support measures, self-protection systems and a communications suite of radios, data links and satellite communication. A fuel capacity of almost 34 tonnes, gives the P-8A the ability to remain on station 2,000 kilometres from base.

The RNZAF took delivery of five P-3B Orions in 1966, and in 1985 an ex-RAAF P-3B was purchased. All six Orion aircraft were upgraded under project RIGEL in the early 1980s and the re-designation P-3K was applied to these aircraft. Their latest upgrade saw them redesignated as P-3K2.

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Nova Systems Solving Challenges for the NZDF

When Nova Systems launched in New Zealand in 2008, the global engineering and technology solutions company was initially focused on delivering test and evaluation expertise in the aerospace domain.

Fast forward to today and Nova Systems is establishing its reputation as a leading force in the New Zealand defence industry supporting the delivery of critical land projects, as well as across maritime, air and information domains.

“One of the biggest obstacles for the New Zealand Defence Force in the land domain is the challenge of recruiting qualified engineering staff with the expertise to apply engineering rigour,” Morris said. “Nova Systems is essentially helping solve this problem by working with the Directorate of Land Engineering within the NZDF.”

In April, Nova Systems began a three-year project to deliver Land Engineering Optimisation for the NZDF. The project is tasked with implementing essential engineering systems within the NZDF to ensure the safety and effectiveness of all land materiel in everything from a basic field generator to complex armoured command and control vehicles.

“Specifically, Nova Systems is upskilling the NZDF around the rigours that are required in areas like design control and configuration management of equipment and capability they are procuring or modifying through engineering change,” Morris said.

“To support these developing systems, the Nova Systems team is also helping to deliver an engineering professional development framework which will enable the continuing force generation of suitably qualified and experienced personnel within Land Domain.

It’s critical work because it needs to have that military lens over it and that’s our teams’ expertise. If we get it right at the beginning of the asset lifecycle, there are big cost saving benefits for the NZ Government. Not only that, it minimises any rework after delivery into service and assures fitness for purpose and safety in operation.

“From a Systems Engineering perspective, we call it left shifting the risk.”

Morris said engineering rigour as part of a robust procurement system was essential. “You can’t expect to buy something off the shelf and out of the box and it provide the required effect in a military environment,” he said.

“In the long run there are huge benefits to getting it right first time and delivering a sustainable and supportable product.”

Nova Systems won the coveted Land Engineering Optimisation bid after the company successfully delivered a suite of Land Engineering Policy documents for the NZDF.

“We started off supporting the Director of Land Engineering with a small body of work where we were tasked to provide some expertise from our subject matter experts in New Zealand and Australia to deliver industry leading engineering policy for the land environment,” Morris said.

“We delivered a high-level policy document supplemented with material based on engineering best practices as content for supporting Defence Manuals. Through the sheer quality of Nova Systems’ deliverables, we were asked to come back and deliver outputs for the NZDF.

“We really look forward to continuing this critical partnership with the NZDF and provide quality outcomes that are above their expectations.”

After just over two years delivering for New Zealand’s land domain, Nova Systems is fast becoming a “go-to” advisory services provider and trusted partner to the Defence Force, the organisation’s Systems Engineering Lead Ade Morris says.
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Ade Morris , Nova Systems Systems Engineering Lead

Morris said Nova Systems’ New Zealand business was rapidly expanding – and the company was garnering interest from prospective employees world-wide.

“We’ve gone from two people to nearly a dozen people in an 18-month period and we can continue to draw on the expertise of our people world-wide in Australia, the UK, Norway, Ireland and Singapore,” he said.

“We’re constantly getting expressions of interest from high calibre, smart people living in the UK, Australia and even the US who want to come and work in New Zealand for Nova Systems.

I think we’re attracting this interest for a number of reasons, but primarily because we’ve got a great team, esprit de corps and candour. We are really focused on growth but without losing the cultural focus of what being a Novan is all about.

We are now a key service provider to the NZDF so when

they’ve got a problem that they need solved, they turn to the likes of Nova Systems. Nova Systems also sits on the New Zealand Ministry of Defence’s Technical and Support Service Panel.

Across the ditch in Australia, Nova Systems recently placed 11th in the 2022 WRK+ Best Places to Work study as the company continues to strive to be an employer of choice.

“Nova Systems is building a reputation that we solve complex challenges and deliver quality work to the client and that word of mouth is spreading so it’s great news for us,” Morris said.

Morris said Nova Systems would continue to build on its strong track record with the NZDF. “It’s always an honour to work for the defence force and really get in there, walk in their shoes, understand their needs and come up with solutions that really solve their problems,” he said.

“It is about earning the right to do business.”

Morris said working as a trusted advisor to the NZDF was incredibly rewarding. “It’s really good just to see how our influence within the defence force can help them, upskill them and take a burden off what they need to do and work they need to deliver,” he said.

Nova Systems is continually growing its global footprint. The organisation has more than 850 talented and dedicated professionals across its strategically located offices.

Founded more than 20 years ago by two Air Force veterans, Nova Systems is an employer of choice among ex-defence personnel and their contribution remains a powerful driving force within the organisation, including in New Zealand.

“We recognise the great value that ex-defence personnel bring as members of the Nova Systems team – their experience and ability lay the foundations for our team of the future,” Morris said.

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Construction begins on NZDF/ MFAT Leadership Centre in Tonga

Construction of Tonga’s Pacific Leadership Development Centre at His Majesty’s Armed Forces (HMAF) Masefield Naval Base, Nuku’alofa, has begun.

Funded by a joint New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) and New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) initiative, the new Leadership Centre is and will provide a location for HMAF leadership training, meetings and talanoa (conversation).

The $NZ5.2 million centre will incorporate a fale-inspired conference centre, and classrooms and staff facilities. Construction is expected to be completed by the end of 2023. It is the second of four centres that the NZDF and MFAT are funding in the Pacific region.

“The first, the Kumul Leadership Centre at Murray Barracks in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea, opened in April and the Papua New Guinea

Defence Force has been making full use of it since then,” said Lieutenant Colonel Gordon Milward, Programme Principal for the Pacific Leader Development Programme (PLDP).

The final two centres will be built in Fiji and Vanuatu, in support of the Republic of Fiji Military Forces and Vanuatu Mobile Force.

The Leadership Centres are a component of the NZDF-led and co-MFAT funded Pacific Leader Development Programme which commenced in June 2019.

The programme supports the military forces of Fiji, Tonga and Papua New Guinea, and the Vanuatu Police Force, in the development of bespoke leadership frameworks

and the delivery of different levels of leadership training for their personnel.

According to Lieutenant Colonel Milward, the number of personnel who are completing leadership training was increasing rapidly.

“Over the past three years the NZDF has supported the training of about 2500 leaders across all four nations, with 327 of those being in Tonga, ranging from Lead Self through to Lead Organisation levels,” he said.

Each nation’s Leadership Framework is based on the NZDF Leadership Framework, but incorporates each nation’s specific values and culture.

The NZDF provides advanced design, development, delivery and facilitation training support for each nation’s leadership programme through a team of six NZDF Institute for Leader Development personnel based at Trentham Military Camp.

Senior uniformed NZDF personnel, with the role of Technical Advisor – Leadership Mentors, will also be seconded to each country for a period of three years.

“As a result of the programme, Tonga, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and Fiji are collaborating for an exciting and innovative future in leader development that will be of increasing benefit for all five nations,” Lieutenant Colonel Milward said.

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Image courtesy NZDF

POSTGRADUATE CERTIFICATE IN INTELLIGENCE

The qualification develops and advances critical research, critical thinking and writing, analytical best practice as well as exploring relevant twentieth and twenty-first century intelligence operations. It is aimed at those wishing to develop advanced critical skills in relation to their existing or prospective intelligence sector careers in New Zealand.

Graduates of this year long programme will possess an advanced knowledge of intelligence analysis processes, be grounded in relevant previous operational intelligence experiences and have a critical understanding of the ethical and professional issues involved

The programme of study consists of two 30-credit courses:

Qualification Requirements

Semester One, 294.741: Intelligence in the International Security Environment

A critical examination of intelligence theory and practice, focusing on key concepts and methodologies of intelligence collection and analysis, analytical tools, frameworks and concepts applied to investigations and operations in the contemporary international security environment.

Course Controller: Dr Rhys Ball, Centre for Defence and Security Studies (Auckland)

Semester Two, 294.744: Intelligence Operations

A comprehensive grounding in the operational intelligence environment in the second half of the 20th century, into the 21st century. Participants will consider the development of intelligence practices both in New Zealand and around the world, and the evolution of intelligence contributions from the end of World War Two, to the intelligence challenges of the 2020s. Intelligence operations are critically reviewed, including intelligence success and intelligence failure, espionage against friends and allies, policing and private intelligence formats.

Course Controller: Dr John Battersby, Teaching Fellow, Centre for Defence and Security Studies (Wellington)

To enroll in this qualification, students must have been awarded or qualified for a relevant Bachelor's degree, or be able to demonstrate scholarly work in conjunction with extensive relevant professional experience for Admission with Equivalent Status.

For further information, please contact CDSS@massey.ac.nz

MASSEY’S POSTGRADUATE CERTIFICATE IN INTELLIGENCE HAS BEEN SPECIFICALLY DESIGNED AS AN ADVANCED INTELLIGENCE PRACTITIONERS COURSE WHICH CRITICALLY EXPLORES STRUCTURED ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES AND THE INTELLIGENCE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH THEY APPLY.

What a realistic increase in Defence spending can deliver

New Zealand can afford an appreciably enhanced defence force that will cost less than 2% of GDP, writes Dr Wayne Mapp, and the strategic environment has changed sufficiently to justify it.

My last article canvassed whether New Zealand should increase defence spending to 2% of GDP, and what would a decision entail. Since then, the case to do so has become stronger. However, this also means developing a clear understanding of how best to undertake this goal.

What would be the priorities and over what time frame would such a plan be implemented? Would it be possible to get a cross party political sign up to this plan?

evenly spread through to 2030, the annual increase would still need to be around $200 million each and every year. This is between 7 and 10% of all of the projected annual increase in government spending.

This is probably not realistic. Neither the Prime Minister or the Finance Minister, whether the government is National led or Labour led, would be prepared to make such a commitment.

Hon Dr Wayne Mapp QSO was New Zealand’s Minister of Defence and Minister of Science and Innovation from 2008 to 2011.

To answer the second question first. It would only be possible to get cross party political sign up if the increase could be staged in such a way so as to not disrupt overall government spending plans. Defence is never the first priority of the New Zealand electorate. Other things matter more, particularly education and heath spending. Therefore, any increase in defence spending has to be phased in such a way so as not seriously affect other government priorities.

To get a sense of the scale of the task, an increase to 2% of GDP from the current 1.5% is an increase of $1.5 billion above the current level of defence spending.

Delivering the whole of such an increase in defence spending in one year would take up most of the annual new allowance in government spending, which is typically up to $3 billion per year, excluding inflation. Even if the increase to 2% of GDP is

Much more likely would be a commitment to 5% of the annual new allowance. This would be between an extra $100 and $150 million on defence per year, excluding inflation. It is worth noting the increase is cumulative. An annual increase of $100 million per year represents an extra $800 million in 2030, due the baseline effects, and would lift defence spending to 1.7% of GDP.

Some may ask why I started by answering the second question first. Surely the approach should be to work out what capabilities defence needs, then tailor defence spending to that. My reasoning is based on political experience. Even if the case can be made out to increase defence spending, it still has to fit within the competing priorities of government. Ministers would baulk at defence consistently taking 7 to 10% of the annual increase in government spending. Five percent is much more likely to be achievable.

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If we accept this premise, then it will be possible to match capabilities to the available budget. In my last article I argued that it will only be possible to expand on existing capabilities, not introduce major new capabilities, at least not of the scale of a traditional air combat force.

Some things would have to be done soon, if they are to be done at all. A decision to increase the Poseidon P 8 fleet from four to six (or to five) would have to be made within the next two or three years, before the end of the production of the aircraft. Similarly, a decision to purchase surplus Australian NH 90 helicopters or the purchase of additional fixed wing aircraft.

Replacing the Project Protector fleet can be made after 2025. These ships will be around 25 years old in 2030. However, the nature of the ships is such that they need not take a decade to procure and then bring them into service.

Building the Army to a force of 6,000 personnel is something that would be progressively achieved. An additional training intake in each year would build numbers to around 6,000 by 2030.

The overall cost of these decisions is reasonably manageable. The replacement of the Project Protector fleet would be the most expensive, costing up to $1.5 billion, depending on the specification of the ships. The overall cost of all these decisions would be in the order of $3 billion.

Spread over eight years, the additional cost requires an additional

$100 million each and every year. These procurements will be additional to the existing capital plan.

As ever, the real challenge is beyond 2030 and it is the replacement of the ANZAC frigates. No matter what the choice of the replacement combat ship, the cost won’t be less than $1.5 billion per ship. If only two ships are purchased, then this will fit within the existing capital plan.

Defence spending at 1.7% of GDP, with the expansion of the NZDF as suggested above, will readily allow the replacement of the ANZAC frigates on a one-to-one basis. Increasing the combat fleet to three ships will require a further increase in defence spending from 1.7% of GDP to 1.8% of GDP.

It is worth noting that when the ANZAC frigates were purchased in the 1990s, the New Zealand population was four million. By the 2030s the population will be six million. The same comment could also be made about the size of the Army and the numbers of aircraft in the Airforce.

In relative terms the NZDF has been progressively shrinking since the 1990s as a percentage of both the population and the economy, the recent change to NATO accounting standards notwithstanding. The sort of increases envisaged here will restore the relative size of defence, both in terms of personnel and overall capability, to where it was at the turn of the century.

Some readers will recall that in the 1990s, New Zealand had a small air combat force of A4 Skyhawk aircraft. At the beginning of the 1990s, New Zealand spent 2% of GDP on defence, but this had declined to less than 1.5% of GDP by the end of the 1990s. At this point the air combat force was fundamentally unaffordable. The 35-year-old A4 aircraft were not replaceable except by what was virtually a gift of ten-year-old F16s.

To re-establish a small, one squadron, air combat force of new F35s would cost $4 billion in capital with ongoing annual costs in the region of $500 million. This would push up the defence budget to beyond 2% of GDP. The same arguments about the utility of such a capability, given the cost, would be as applicable today as they were in the 1990s.

New Zealand can afford an appreciably enhanced defence force that will cost less than 2% of GDP. The increase in both capability and cost can be spread over the next decade, so that Ministers are not faced with the prospect of defence squeezing out other expenditure that is likely to have greater appeal both to the government and the public.

Over the last decade the strategic environment has changed sufficiently to justify an increase in defence spending. The government’s own defence policy documents clearly testify to this change. That rhetoric now has to be translated into a tangible increase in military preparedness.

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Nukes, allies, weapons and cost: 4 big questions NZ’s defence review must address

With regional and global pressures increasing, the Defence Policy Review has four vital questions to address, writes University of Waikato Professor of Law Alexander Gillespie.

New Zealand’s commitment last month to send a further 120 defence staff to assist with training the Ukrainian military underlines how quickly the geopolitical landscape is changing.

Earlier, US Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s provocative (some would say reckless) Taiwan trip set off another round of sabre-rattling by China and a breakdown in bilateral discussions with the US.

More recently, US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman suggested New Zealand could be invited to join AUKUS, the defence alliance focused on the Indo-Pacific region and aimed at countering China’s rising influence.

Taken together, these events show why the government’s newly commissioned Defence Policy Review is both timely and urgent.

The review follows the 2021 Defence Assessment, which highlighted the challenges presented by climate change, China and Russia. But even in the nine months since the assessment was released, the scale of the climate crisis has only become more evident, while relations with Russia and China have become more complicated.

In particular, China’s influence in the Pacific came into sharp relief in April when it signed a security

agreement with Solomon Islands. With regional and global pressures increasing, the defence review has four vital questions to address.

1. What is the nuclear risk?

Because of New Zealand’s nuclearfree status and the suspended ANZUS agreement, some might assume the country is safe. In fact, nuclear tensions are high and the review needs to make this clear.

Just what impact a nuclear conflict would have on New Zealand would depend on its scale and location, including whether the country was a direct target. Either way, it would be enormous. Aside from the need to factor this into the national security system, the review has to be clear about associated risks.

Since New Zealand is part of the Five Eyes security partnership, it’s possible the Waihopai spy base could be a direct target. The larger and more sophisticated Pine Gap facility in Australia likely already is –which in turn raises the issue of what happens if New Zealand’s closest and most important ally is attacked.

After the AUKUS defence pact was signed last year, China warned Australia could become a “nuclear war target”. Regardless of the estranged ANZUS relationship, New Zealand would likely be pulled into any such conflict.

Alexander Gillespie is Professor of Law at the University of Waikato.
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2. What would NZ fight for?

For all those reasons, the defence review will need to look at New Zealand’s diplomatic settings in a world of changing military alliances.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has stressed the values underpinning the country’s foreign policy to both the US and NATO, but these should be made explicit in the review. How are these values defended, and how can New Zealand’s independent foreign policy be reconciled with collective security goals?

With Australia, what are the commitments, responsibilities, benefits and implications of the Anzac relationship in the 21st century? And what is New Zealand’s position on Australia’s connection to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) with the US, Japan and India, and the AUKUS agreement with the US and Britain?

Critically, the review should also assess the costs and benefits of New Zealand joining such arrangements.

And while New Zealand can’t join NATO, a clear assessment of this evolving relationship is clearly warranted, given current cooperation to supply weapons, intelligence and military training to Ukraine.

Finally, while the relationship with the US has improved since the signing of a defence arrangement in 2012, what are the future prospects? Can the ANZUS commitment to “mutual aid […] and collective capacity to resist armed attack” be revisited without compromising New Zealand’s non-nuclear stance?

3. Which weapons systems?

As the war in the Ukraine is demonstrating, the technology of warfare is evolving fast. Preparing for that change will be essential if New Zealand is to have a credible defence system.

New Zealand may have no capacity for nuclear-powered submarines or aircraft carriers, but its armed forces will need access to some of the equipment already being deployed against Russia’s invasion.

The defence review should also examine the next generation of platforms, including quantum technologies, hypersonic weaponary, advanced cyber capabilities, electronic warfare, artificial intelligence and potentially some autonomous systems.

Inter-operability with allies will be crucial. And the review should explore the possibility of New Zealand contributing

proportionately to joint allied military budgets for things beyond its own capacity to supply, such as fighter aircraft or advanced weapons systems.

4. How much should NZ spend?

New Zealand’s defence spend was boosted in the last budget to NZ$5.2 billion and is projected to keep increasing to 2030. The country spends about 1.5% of its GDP on defence, compared to an OECD average now at 2.5% (3.7% for the US, 2.2% for Britain, 2.1% for Australia and 1.4% for Canada).

Whether New Zealand’s defence budget is sufficient is always a difficult question to answer. Every tax dollar has an opportunity cost – each one spent on the military represents one not spent on health, education, social housing or other pressing needs.

At the same time, New Zealand has to spend enough to defend itself and also carry its fair share for friends and allies. The pendulum will swing when the external threats are perceived to be greater than domestic ones – which is why the defence review must ask the right questions.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.

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AEROSPACE

Kea Aerospace unveils NZ-first stratospheric aircraft design

According to Christchurch-based Kea Aerospace, the final design of New Zealand’s first stratospheric aircraft has been finalised and construction is well underway.

With a wingspan of 12.5 metres and weighing under 40 kilograms, the solar-powered ‘Kea Atmos Mk 1’ is designed to fly at 65,000 feet (20 kilometres) – around twice the altitude of commercial airliners.

The aircraft will be capable of flying high altitude test flights of up to 16 hours and subsequent versions will be developed to fly continuously for months at a time.

“This is the first stratospheric aircraft built in New Zealand,” said Kea Aerospace chief executive Mark Rocket. “We started construction in July, and we’re planning for the first stratospheric flight to take-off in early 2023.

At that height it will be flying in extreme conditions – at about -65 degrees Celsius, and in less than 10% of the air density we have at sea level. The aircraft needs to be extremely light, but also be incredibly robust to operate successfully in those conditions.

Kea Aerospace has been building and flying a range of electricpowered aircraft and high-altitude balloons as part of its program to build a global fleet of solar-powered uncrewed aircraft that will fly in the stratosphere for months at a time. Each aircraft will carry aerial imagery equipment, vastly improving the data available for activities including environmental monitoring, precision agriculture, disaster management and maritime awareness.

The first stratospheric flight is planned to take-off in early 2023 from Tāwhaki, on Kaitorete, located

around 50 kilometres south of Christchurch.

In May this year, Dawn Aerospace was listed in the Matchstiq Top 100 of 2022, a list of high-growth startups and tech companies to work for in New Zealand.

Also in May, the company announced it was selected by Blue Canyon Technologies (a whollyowned subsidiary of Raytheon Technologies) to provide turnkey propulsion systems for the X-SAT Saturn satellite bus. Dawn Aerospace will supply thrusters, tanks, control electronics, and full-service support in logistics and propellant loading for the ESPA Grande-class satellite.

Blue Canyon Technologies (BCT) has supported missions for the U.S. Air Force, NASA, and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. It also provided the Attitude Control Systems for the first interplanetary CubeSats, which successfully travelled to Mars.

According to BCT CEO Stephen Steg, given the fast-moving nature of their business, they need suppliers that can match their cadence and

quality. “The in-space-heritage, creative thinking and solutionsfocused approach we’ve seen from Dawn Aerospace, gives us great confidence in their ability to deliver,” he said.

Dawn Aerospace earlier announced it had been contracted to produce more than 100 thrusters for clients across the US, Europe, Japan, India, and Indonesia. It has propulsion contracts for a series of constellations, including Pixxel’s hyperspectral imaging constellation and the Indonesian Space Agency’s (LAPAN) early-tsunami warning constellation. Other contracts include the continued supply for a series of Orbital Transfer Vehicles, such as D-Orbit’s ION spacecraft and UARX’s OSSIE spacecraft.

The comapny has achieved a series of significant milestones recently, including launching 27 propulsion units and flying on all SpaceX Transporter missions to date; significant funding from tech investment firm – Movac; and signing a series of commercial satellite customers globally.

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New Aerospace Engineering Degree Launches In Christchurch

In July, the first class of University of Canterbury students embarked on a new minor in Aerospace Engineering as part of their Bachelor of Engineering (Hons) degree.

Aerospace engineering involves the design, development, testing, and production of aircraft, spacecraft, and related systems and equipment, and currently the University of Canterbury (UC) is the only university to offer an undergraduate Aerospace degree in Aotearoa.

The new Mechanical Engineering minor will give 40 students an enhanced pathway into the aerospace industry in Christchurch, New Zealand and beyond.

The Aerospace Engineering programme is coordinated by Mechanical Engineering lecturer Dr Natalia Kabaliuk, whose expertise includes thermo-fluids engineering within a wide range of applications including combustion systems.

Dr Kabaliuk led the innovative UC team that redesigned the sit-ski used by athlete Corey Peters to win gold and silver medals in the Beijing Winter Paralympics this year.

“We’re thrilled to welcome the first enthusiastic bunch of future Aerospace Engineers to begin learning and grow knowledge in this burgeoning field in Aotearoa New Zealand,” Dr Kabaliuk said.

“We know there’s a critical shortage of aerospace expertise in this country and we are pleased to work with and support the aerospace industry to grow engineering talent and develop the country’s aerospace sector.”

She said that more students applied for the minor in Aerospace Engineering than could be accepted into this first cohort, demonstrating that there exists keen interest in entering the aerospace field.

UC’s Deputy Vice-Chancellor Research Professor Ian Wright commented that it’s an exciting time to be part of the growing local and national aerospace industry.

“The University has an important role to play in the aerospace industry, creating a pathway for aspiring students through our world-class science and engineering degrees including the new Aerospace Engineering minor, as well as attracting research and teaching talent to Canterbury,” Professor Wright says.

“UC research and facilities are already supporting and working alongside various aerospace

companies with wide-ranging benefits for other technologies. UC alumni have founded some of these local aerospace companies and UC is proud to be working with them.”

Expanding aerospace technology and capability is part of UC’s research strategy and Christchurch’s city’s aerospace strategic plan.

Last year, the university welcomed the announcement of Project Tāwhaki, which will see a joint environmental and aerospace project on the Kaitōrete Spit in Canterbury.

“UC has been working with ChristchurchNZ and emerging aerospace companies to progress ambitious aerospace technologies for years, including sponsorship of the recent Christchurch Aerospace Challenge. This development aligns with our existing AV (aerial vehicle) flight testing range at Kaitōrete – the only one of its kind in the country,” Professor Wright said.

UC is also engaging with local rūnanga to build capacity for highvalue, high-tech employment in Christchurch.

Dr Natalia Kabaliuk , lecturer at University of Canterbury Aerospace Engineering UC Aerospace Club launch the Black III rocket at Kaitorete Spot (January 2022)
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AEROSPACE

Trans-Tasman partnership to provide world-class satellite positioning services

Southern Positioning Augmentation Network to deliver more accurate, reliable satellite positioning system for Australasia, bringing benefits to a range of sectors over next 20 years.

Land Information Minister Damien O’Connor announced on 16 September a joint TransTasman partnership that will provide Australasia with worldleading satellite positioning services that are up to 50 times more accurate, boosting future economic productivity, sustainability and safety.

New Zealand and Australia have partnered to deliver the Southern Positioning Augmentation Network (SouthPAN), with the first services available in the next few weeks.

SouthPAN is a partnership between Geoscience Australia and Toitū Te Whenua Land Information New Zealand (LINZ) under the Australia New Zealand Science, Research and Innovation Cooperation Agreement. Lockheed Martin Australia has been awarded a $1.18bn, 19-year contract by Geoscience Australia to deliver the project.

“The SouthPAN project will immediately improve the accuracy, reliability and availability of existing satellite positioning systems in Australasia,” Minister O’Connor said.

“Independent analysis of SouthPAN shows it has the potential to benefit many major sectors in New Zealand from transport, construction and utilities to agriculture, forestry, and horticulture.

The quantified economic benefits from this are estimated to be $864m over the next 20 years and will provide New Zealanders with greater economic security into the future.

According to a 2019 report by EY the Satellite-Based Augmentation System (SBAS) “signals, are anticipated to set the foundation for a present value (PV) AUD $7.6b economic impact on the Australian and New Zealand economies over 30 years.”

SouthPAN will deliver a signal augmenting GPS and Galileo, which are only accurate to between 5 to 10 metres, making them accurate to as

little as 10 centimetres – without the need for a mobile phone signal or internet.

“That will mean search and rescue can operate in poor weather conditions and remote places,” said the minister. “It will help drive innovation in fenceless farms and precision agriculture in ways that improve productivity and lift our sustainability credentials. Future applications will also help with tracking shipping as well as the use of drones and unmanned vehicles.”

According to LINZ, SouthPAN will achieve Safety of Life certification in 2028, which will allow aeroplanes, helicopters, and

26 Line of Defence

unmanned aerial vehicles to use SouthPAN for navigation and landing. This will enable aircraft can fly safely in adverse weather conditions that they’re unable to currently operate in, reducing the likelihood of travel disruptions and enabling rescue services to be faster and safer.

“Space is among our fastest growing areas, and our local technical team will play an important role in delivering the benefits of SouthPAN capability to service many sectors including aviation, agriculture, transport, mining and other industries,” said David Ball, Regional Director of Space for Lockheed Martin Australia and New Zealand.

“Lockheed Martin is a global leader in satellite navigation technology, providing recent upgrades to the US Government’s GPS constellation. We look forward to working with the Australian and New Zealand Governments to deploy this worldclass technology.”

SouthPAN is the Southern Hemisphere’s first satellite navigation augmentation service.

Australia’s Minister for Resources, Hon Madeleine King, said the investment is a major commitment between the Australian and New Zealand governments, providing broad benefits for all of Australasia.

“SouthPAN will allow visually impaired citizens to navigate cities with pinpoint assistive technologies. For our Royal Flying Doctor Service, it will allow light aircraft to land more safely in remote rural areas in all weather conditions,” said Minister King.

Lockheed Martin Australia will work with the SouthPAN project team to establish a network of Global Navigation Satellite System reference stations and satellite uplink facilities that will enable communications and transmissions with the SouthPAN space infrastructure.

According to Minister O’Connor, New Zealand’s partnership with Australia was vital to accessing this technology and acknowledged them for partnering on this investment. “Without this partnership, the cost of entry would simply be too great for New Zealand to take on alone,” Damien O’Connor said.

The system is expected to be fully operational by 2028, and will be provided as a service for 19 years with an option to extend.

How it works

The program will use a unique, Lockheed Martin-developed, Second-Generation Satellite-Based Augmentation System (SBAS), broadcasting on two frequencies to augment signals from two Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) constellations: the US Global

Positioning System (GPS) and the European Union’s Galileo system.

The use of dual frequencies and multiple GNSS constellations results in enhanced integrity of data and accuracy, and it eliminates dependency on just one GNSS.

According to Lockheed Martin, the Second-Generation SBAS technology will receive and monitor basic signals data from multiple GNSS via a network of widelydistributed ground stations. The data will be collected by a SBAS testbed master station, which will compute corrections and integrity bounds for each GNSS satellite signal, and generate augmentation messages.

The new messages will be sent to an SBAS payload hosted aboard an Inmarsat geostationary Earth orbit satellite via an uplink antenna. The satellite then rebroadcasts the augmentation messages containing corrections and integrity data to the end users’ GNSS receivers.

The entire process takes less than six seconds.

Lockheed Martin provided the systems integration expertise in addition to a radio frequency uplink in Uralla, New South Wales. GMV-Spain provided “magicGNSS” processors, Inmarsat provided the geostationary satellite hosted navigation payload, and the Australia and New Zealand Cooperative Research Centre for Spatial Information coordinated the demonstrator SBAS test-bed SBAS test-bed projects.

Lockheed Martin’s experience with space-based navigation systems includes having produced the longlasting GPS IIR and IIR-M satellites in the GPS satellite constellation; and having developed (and producing) the US Space Force’s next generation GPS III/IIIF satellites.

It also maintains the GPS Architecture Evolution Plan ground control system, which operates the 31-satellite GPS constellation.

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AEROSPACE

Christchurch-based Fabrum joins team pushing aviation towards hydrogen flight

Filton Systems Engineering and Fabrum support GKN Aerospace on hydrogen fuel to shift aviation closer to a sustainable zero-emissions future.

New Zealand-based Fabrum, a world leader in zero-emissions transition and British engineering consultancy Filton Systems Engineering (FSE) announced on 25 August that they had joined forces with GKN Aerospace to help shift aviation towards hydrogen flight with end-to-end hydrogen fuel system technology.

This collaboration leverages FSE’s aerospace capability in fuel systems and designing fuel, air, hydraulic, inerting and engine systems, and Fabrum’s cryogenic and fuel tank storage technology and expertise in hydrogen fuel systems, with GKN Aerospace’s position as the world’s leading multi-technology tier 1 aerospace supplier. With 38 manufacturing locations in 12 countries, GKN Aerospace serves over 90% of the world’s aircraft and engine manufacturers.

The announcement coincides with FSE’s upgrade to their existing hot and cold fuel test facility to now offer both gaseous and liquid hydrogen in a world-first commercial test environment in Bristol. These test facilities enable aerospace companies to produce and test liquid hydrogen as a fuel for hydrogen test flights, with FSE providing further support towards certification for flight status.

Fabrum developed the groundbased end-to-end liquid hydrogen production solution for the test facility, including hydrogen conditioning, liquefaction and liquid hydrogen storage. Further upgrades are planned, including combining Fabrum’s cryogenic technologies with a membrane-free electrolyser to remove dependence on gaseous hydrogen supply.

At the FSE test facility, a ground-based demonstrator of a 2.4 kW liquid hydrogen system has been jointly designed with GKN Aerospace, and built by FSE, under the Innovate UK-funded Safe Flight project. This end-to-end system demonstrates the feasibility of liquid hydrogen as an aircraft fuel source and addresses many of the safety concerns raised by the introduction of such a novel fuel.

The project has developed storage and dispensing technologies, optimised purging systems, and integrated fuel tank design with distribution on aircraft (including vaporisation and conditioning) through to supplying a fuel cell with gaseous hydrogen at the required temperature and pressure over a range of electrical loads representative of a typical flight.

“The successful adoption of zeroemission fuels requires both ground-

based infrastructure development for liquid hydrogen provisioning at airports and aircraft that will use it,” said Fabrum CEO Dr Ojas Mahapatra.

“Point-of-use liquid hydrogen production is the most economical short to medium-term solution to enable zero emission flight.

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We’ve already proven our ground hydrogen fuel solutions for small and medium-scale hydrogen production. Now, with FSE, we’re taking these refuelling solutions to the aviation industry - right through to the onboard fuel cell.”

Ben Richardson, Commercial Director, Filton Systems Engineering, said the company is ready to support the aviation industry as it innovates towards a hydrogen future – as its world-first solutions are a reality.

“We’ve combined our worldleading aerospace expertise in fuel system and equipment design and certification with Fabrum’s unique and complementary expertise to achieve significant liquid hydrogen milestones,” he said. “We looked globally for the best people to help us shift aviation towards a hydrogen future, and Fabrum is an ideal partner as they’re the best at what they do in the world.

Together, we’ve already delivered break-through test facilities with ready access to hydrogen on-site and on-demand. We see this as a vital asset to the Aerospace, and other industrial sectors, if hydrogen is going to be developed as an alternate fuel source. There is now a facility in the UK where product

development can be performed safely with a continuous supply of liquid hydrogen.

In addition, US-based NI (previously National Instruments) with expertise from involvement in recent Space programmes, are providing gauging and control hardware and methodologies to solve the challenges associated with the control and instrumentation of such a challenging and relatively unknown fuel.

According to Fabrum’s Managing Director and cofounder, Christopher Boyle, the company’s partnership with FSE leverages Fabrum’s years of experience delivering components into aviation for future flight, including superconducting motors and battery technology for electric aeroplanes.

“We’re excited to now tie our aerospace and hydrogen systems together for actual flight and full certification with FSE,” Boyle said. “We’ve always believed hydrogen is the ideal alternative fuel for aviation, and over 17 years, we’ve developed enormous capability and understand the drivers for aviation systems. Liquid hydrogen offers a new future for sustainable long-distance travel –and energy self-sufficiency.”

Boyle likens challenges for hydrogen-powered aviation to Formula One: “It demands the best tech to achieve the outcomes the industry is after and requires highperformance, high reliability and consciousness around weight.

“We’re the only company in the world with capability in electrolysis, liquefaction, distribution and fuel ground storage through to aircraft fuelling on onboard fuel tankswith the ability to vaporise liquid back to gas at the right pressure and temperature for the fuel cell.

Our technologies are a gamechanger for aviation innovators and researchers – as we’re enabling liquid hydrogen production on-demand as close as possible to the point of use, storage, and containment. This is a paradigm shift from liquid hydrogen produced at large-scale plants and transported to the site of use.

Fabrum is leading the world in end-to-end zero-emission transition technologies to enable a lowercarbon economy. Formerly known as Fabrum Solutions, the company recently merged with AFCryo, a world leader in cryocoolers and liquefiers, to provide end-to-end mission-critical solutions, including hydrogen fuel solutions for heavy transport, marine and aviation.

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AEROSPACE

Microgravity Experimentation Services on the Rise

Increasing Interest in Microgravity Experimentation Services

Microgravity offers unique conditions for experimentation. Objects experience near weightlessness when they are located on platforms that are in free fall. One can access microgravity environments via various platforms such as satellites, parabolic flights, and drop towers. In such environments, phenomena occur differently than they do normally.

On some microgravity platforms, objects are also exposed to increased levels of radiation. This is because Earth’s atmosphere offers protection against various sources of radiation coming from beyond Earth. The extent of exposure depends on altitude, proximity to radiation belts around Earth (zones of charged particles held near the planet by Earth’s magnetosphere), and other factors.

Objects do not experience total weightlessness in microgravity because various phenomena mean g-forces are not totally absent – e.g. tidal effects, gravity from other objects, air resistance, and movements onboard the platform. It is also worth noting that platforms are not “gravity-free” – they are still falling due to Earth’s gravity.

Many firms are trying to sell services to facilitate microgravity experimentation. In line with growing popular interest in the space industry,

there has been an increasing number of firms offering to put payloads in microgravity environments for experimentation purposes. Many of these firms focus on facilitating access to orbital platforms in particular. Several of these firms have successfully raised rounds of capital.

The prospects of these firms, though, is uncertain; enthusiasts believe there is growing demand for services, but sceptics question how much demand exists, especially in the absence of government support. Sceptics problematise factors that enthusiasts often cite as spurring demand for microgravity research. Three such factors – lowering launch costs, proliferating platforms, and returning mass – are discussed below.

Lowering launch costs are one factor that is arguably spurring demand for microgravity experimentation services. A common argument amongst enthusiasts is as follows: sending payloads to space entails a launch, and launch costs have been lowering, so lowering launch costs make microgravity research cheaper and thus spur more demand for such research.

Critics, though, debate this. What portion of overall costs do launch costs represent to most customers? How do savings from lowering launch costs compare to government subsidies financing microgravity experimentation? If

Based on interviews with experts, Dr Nicholas Borroz summarises the apparently increasing demand for microgravity research services and categorises the reasons why clients are looking for these services.
Dr Nicholas Borroz is Principal at strategic advisory firm Rotoiti.
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launch costs only represent a small portion of overall costs, or if the benefits of lowering launch costs pale in comparison to the benefits of government subsidies, then lowering launch costs are unlikely to significantly affect demand.

Another factor that may be spurring demand for microgravity experimentation services is a proliferation of platforms on which such experimentation may be conducted. The number of satellites orbiting Earth has grown dramatically in recent years. Many of these satellites might conceivably host microgravity experimentation payloads. If the supply of microgravity platforms is increasing, then all else equal, this should lead to an increase in demand. But again, this argument can be problematised.

Depending on the type of experiment, many existing satellites are unsuitable. And though there are planned platforms which could rival the ISS in terms of hosting microgravity experiments, that’s all they are for now: plans. Will plans inspire demand?

Another factor potentially driving demand for microgravity experimentation services is easier return of mass, not just data, to Earth. A shortcoming of orbiting platforms besides the ISS (and a limited number of other platforms) is that it is difficult to return their payloads to Earth.

In space, payloads’ responses to microgravity are often detected by onboard sensors which transmit data to Earth. Upcoming technologies may facilitate the returns of payloads to Earth, though. And this would make experimentation more valuable by allowing more comprehensive testing.

Sceptics question if these new mass-return-from-space options will be more expensive than those that already exist, and if there will be enough customers willing to buy them. Sceptics also note suborbital platforms already exist for customers prioritising return of mass.

• Several plans are in place to develop new platforms that spend time in orbit and then return, thus bringing payloads back to Earth. Other technologies are in development to allow more

satellites to survive atmospheric re-entry and thus return payloads.

• Parabolic flights and drop towers do not face such difficulties in returning mass to Earth. Of course they have other limitations, though, notably briefer stints in microgravity.

As is the case with many business segments of the space industry, it is debatable whether there is enough demand for microgravity experimentation services to justify supplying them. There are two common perspectives on this matter. One is optimistic. It acknowledges there is limited demand for such services, but believes greater supply will spur corresponding growth in demand. The other view is pessimistic. It doubts demand will catch up with supply, and thinks microgravity experimentation service providers are acting prematurely. Where one stands on the issue largely corresponds to one’s sympathies for and extent of investment in the business.

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AEROSPACE

Reasons Customers Want Microgravity Experimentation Services

Though the extent of demand for microgravity experimentation services is debatable, there is more consensus about the reasons why customers find such services valuable.

Microgravity experiments are often classified according to fields of study – life sciences or materials science, for example. But it is also possible and perhaps more useful to conceptualise demand according to categories defining what experimentation enables customers to do; thinking about what experimentation enables is useful for understanding why customers value experimentation, and thus also perhaps for assessing how commercially viable such experimentation services are. Experts identified five reasons customers demand experimentation services, discussed below.

One reason customers demand microgravity experimentation services is to conduct fundamental research. Typically associated with government or academia in some way, such customers conduct research that is not specifically linked to any plans for commercialisation.

Life sciences and materials science are two fields where there is a significant amount of such fundamental research. For these customers, microgravity research services help advance research agendas and also justify spending resources that are allotted to such research.

Another reason customers demand microgravity research is it helps them develop proofs of concept that they can use to justify operations back on Earth. There are operations on Earth that can theoretically be done, but which are very costly to do. Before spending significant resources to carry out such operations, therefore, stakeholders seek proof that the

operations will function according to expectations.

This is one reason why some customers may find value in microgravity experimentation services; they are willing to spend a relatively small amount of resources in microgravity to then justify spending significantly more resources back on Earth.

Yet another reason customers demand microgravity services is to test and validate space systems. For systems meant to function in space (e.g. satellite-borne computers), it is important to show the systems work in space. This convinces customers and other stakeholders that the systems are worth developing and buying.

There are many stages of testing and validation in systems’ development. And the scope of focus varies, sometimes looking at overall systems or at other times looking at specific subsystems. Relatedly, systems developers seek to gain “flight heritage”, a somewhat nebulous term connoting successful performance in space. Note that a large amount of space systems’ testing and validation can occur on Earth.

A fourth reason, or rather a collection of reasons that customers demand microgravity experimentation services is that they help sell novelty, aesthetic, or luxury products. Though this perhaps stretches the concept of

“experimentation”, it was identified in many conversations with experts.

There is an obviously exotic quality to products that have been to space; for most humans, space is inaccessible and about as strange or unusual a setting as can exist. Some market actors can leverage this exotic quality as a selling point – whether by selling products that have been to space (e.g. cosmetics or wristwatches), or by selling products whose space origins help “transport” customers there (e.g. movies, advertisements, or video games).

A final reason customers find value in microgravity experimentation services is to enable them to manufacture products in space, to be sold either in space or back on Earth. This was noted by several of the experts, though they admitted it is the most “sci-fi” reason for demand for microgravity experimentation services.

Most experts believe there will come a time when it will make sense to manufacture certain products in space, whether to be sold to customers in space or back on Earth. Ultimately, to be economically justifiable, the value of manufacturing in space will need to outweigh the costs. Long-term thinking customers may be willing to pay now for microgravity services that test and validate technologies that enable such manufacturing. This article was originally published on 21 July 2022 as a Rotoiti brief.

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Clock ticking on New Zealand Space Policy Review

MBIE is seeking feedback on your interests in space and the values and objectives that underpin New Zealand’s space policies. Submissions close on 31 October.

Global space industry revenues are now more than NZ$600 billion per annum, and in 2018/19, New Zealand’s space sector contributed $1.69 billion to the national economy and supported 12,000 jobs.

“Space is also becoming more crowded and complex, and making sure it is used sustainably is a global challenge,” stated Minister for Economic and Regional Development Stuart Nash in the foreword to the New Zealand Space Policy Review Consultation document. “As a small nation, we have an interest in having a strong international rules-based system that ensures space is used responsibly and peacefully.

“As the Minister responsible for all payloads launched from New Zealand, I am acutely aware that we must ensure our system, and the principles and policies that we adhere to, remain consistent with the expectations of New Zealanders.

“Your feedback on this consultation will help us develop a National Space Policy that reflects the values and interests of New Zealand in space, and will guide our future policies, regulations, and international engagements.”

Feedback will be collated into a summary of feedback report and will inform thinking around:

• Creating a National Space Policy: a document which outlines New Zealand’s values and objectives on space, including for our international partners.

• Articulating New Zealand’s broad interests on space

across multiple activities and engagements: including at United Nations fora and with international space and security partners.

• Developing future space strategies, policies and regulatory changes: including adjusting our policies and regulations to meet advancements in space technology.

• Further engagement on space policy with the New Zealand public: including on any key areas of interest identified through the consultation.

• Considering whether any legislative changes are required to the Outer Space and Highaltitude Activities Act 2017.

MBIE has commissioned PublicVoice to produce a summary of feedback report on the space policy review consultation. The summary of feedback report will ultimately be made available on the MBIE website.

The New Zealand Space Policy Review Consultation document outlines:

• The role of government: The New Zealand government’s role in space policy development.

• Values: New Zealand values which are reflected through our space activities and engagements.

• Interests: The range of crosscutting interests that the New Zealand government has in space; including economic, national security, regulatory, international and environmental interests.

• Policy objectives: Existing policy objectives which reflect the government’s interests in space.

Five public meetings are scheduled to take place between 11 and 20 October: in Mahia, Auckland, Christchurch, Wellington and online. Registration is now open via MBIE’s New Zealand Space Policy Review webpages.

The government is also consulting on an Aerospace Strategy which sets out a vision and goals to grow the wider aerospace sector (which includes space and advanced aviation) in New Zealand.

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2022’s supercharged summer of climate extremes

Dr Kevin Trenberth of the US National Center for Atmospheric Research and University of Auckland explains how global warming and La Niña fuelled a year of disasters on top of disasters.

There’s an old joke about the fellow who has his left foot in a bucket of ice water and the right in a bucket of hot water, so that his overall temperature is average. That seemed to apply to the climate during 2022’s northern summer of extremes.

Global warming is undoubtedly a factor, but just how the increasing extremes – heat waves, droughts and floods, sometimes one on top of the other – are related can be bewildering to the public and policymakers.

and even broke 122 F (50 C) in Jacobabad, Pakistan, in May.

The Asian heat helped to melt some glaciers in the Himalayas, elevating rivers. At the same time, three times the normal annual rain fell in Pakistan during the weekslong monsoon. More than 1,500 people died in the flooding, an estimated 1.8 million homes were damaged or destroyed, and hundreds of thousands of livestock were lost. Food for the coming seasons will be in short supply.

Dr Kevin Trenberth is a Distinguished Scholar at the US National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and an Honorary Academic in the Department of Physics, University of Auckland.

As a climate scientist, I’ve been working on these issues for more than four decades, and my new book, “The changing flow of energy through the climate system,” details the causes, feedbacks and impacts. Let’s take a closer look at how climate change and natural weather patterns like La Niña influence what we’re seeing around the world today.

The Northern Hemisphere’s extreme summer Summer 2022 has indeed seemed to feature one climate-related disaster after another.

Record-breaking heat waves baked India and Pakistan, then monsoon flooding left about a third of Pakistan under water, affecting an estimated 33 million people. Temperatures exceeded 104 degrees Fahrenheit (40 Celsius) for prolonged periods in many places,

Extreme heat in Europe led to wildfires, especially in Spain and Portugal. The drought in Spain dried up a reservoir, revealing the long-submerged “Spanish Stonehenge,” an ancient circle of megalithic stones believed to date back to around 5000 B.C. Electricity generation in France plummeted, with low rivers reducing the ability to cool nuclear power towers, and German barges had difficulty finding enough water to navigate the Rhine River.

In the United States, the West and the Midwest suffered through intense heat waves, and the crucial Colorado River reservoirs Lake Powell and Lake Mead hit record lows, triggering water restrictions. Yet, the country also saw major disruptive flooding in several cities and regions, from Death Valley to the mountains of eastern Kentucky.

In China, heat waves and drought stretched over eight weeks and dried

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up parts of the Yangtze River to the lowest level since at least 1865 – until parts of the same area were inundated with flooding rains in August.

Climate change exacerbates the extremes

Yes, these are all manifestations of climate change brought about by human activities.

Climate change for the most part does not directly cause the rainfall or drought, but it makes these naturally occurring events more intense or severe. Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, largely from power plants, vehicles, buildings, industry and agriculture, trap heat in the atmosphere, heating the planet.

In addition to raising temperature, global warming increases evaporation of surface waters into the atmosphere, drying areas that have had little rain. Warmer air increases the amount of water vapor the atmosphere can hold, and the thirstier atmosphere sucks moisture from the surface.

That extra moisture is carried away by winds and eventually flows into storms, often a thousand miles distant, that rain harder. Atmospheric moisture has increased by 5% to 20% in general compared with the pre-1970s.

The increase in water vapor, a greenhouse gas, further amplifies warming. When water evaporates, it absorbs heat, and when it later falls as rain, that heat is released back into the atmosphere. This extra energy fuels storms, leading to more intense systems that may also be bigger and last longer, with up to 30% more rain as a consequence of warming.

On average, precipitation falls on only about 8% of the land globally at any time. It is the intermittency of precipitation that leads to the exaggerated extremes, resulting in localized heavy rains and widespread dry spells.

So, with the accelerated water cycle, wet areas get wetter, and dry areas get drier, while over the oceans, this results in salty waters becoming saltier and fresh waters becoming fresher.

Infrastructure isn’t ready for the consequences

The impact of these events and whether they turn into disasters depend in part on how prepared communities are for the changes. Most infrastructure, forests and farms are adapted to a previous climate.

Whether heavy rains result in flooding depends critically on drainage systems and surface water management.

When populations grow, as Pakistan’s has, more people become vulnerable when they settle in flood plains. It takes time for surface waters to evaporate, and flood water runoff is affected by rising sea levels that slow and may even reverse stream and river flows to the ocean.

Natural variability also plays a major role

While the observed increases in extremes are a consequence of climate change, the weather events themselves are still largely naturally occurring.

Two naturally reoccurring weather patterns are important to understand: La Niña and El Niño – the two opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

In 2022, we are likely headed into a third year of a La Niña event, in which cool waters dominate the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The pattern affects atmospheric circulation, keeping the main rains over southern Asia and the Indonesian region, and with associated record-breaking marine heat waves in the North and South Pacific. In North America, it typically means the southern half of the U.S. is drier than normal.

In the Southern Hemisphere, that marine heat wave over the South Pacific led to the warmest and wettest meteorological winter (June-August) on record in New Zealand, with several major floods. Rain was 141% of “normal,” and nationwide temperatures averaged 2.5 F (1.4 C) above the 19812010 average. The exceptionally high sea surface temperatures not only contributed to warmer temperatures on land, but also fed atmospheric rivers and provided extra moisture to onshore winds and storms.

The La Niña cooling in the tropical Pacific can readily reverse, with an El Niño pattern effectively pumping heat out of the ocean and into the atmosphere. A preliminary analysis colleagues and I conducted suggests that the global ocean heat content is at record-high levels. Exceptionally warm deep waters in the tropical western Pacific right now suggest prospects for the next El Niño event in 2023, potentially resulting in more global temperature records in 2024 as some ocean heat returns to the atmosphere.

All La Niñas are not the same, however. Because of how sea temperatures responded to the heat in the extratropics, the environment today is very different than it was two years ago. Warmth in the North Pacific could have consequences for the “pineapple express” and other West Coast U.S. storms this coming winter.

The natural variability component means that we should not simply expect more of the same every year. As we likely go into an El Niño next year and global temperatures get a boost, extremes will shift to new locations.

This article was originally published on The Conversation, 15 September 2022.

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CTBT successes remain limited as several countries yet to ratify

In this abridged excerpt from her speech at the 10th meeting of the Friends of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test Ban Treaty, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern states nuclear threat is alive and well.

This gathering provides an important opportunity to reiterate our unwavering commitment to achieving a world without nuclear weapons, for which the entry into force of this treaty would be a muchneeded boost.

As a firm opponent of nuclear weapons, including nuclear weapons testing, Aotearoa New Zealand has been a steadfast supporter of the CTBT since it was first proposed. The Treaty’s adoption in 1996 was a clear statement of our shared determination to end nuclear testing, and was a critical factor in the indefinite extension of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

As the threat posed by nuclear weapons continue to rise, and the international community is divided over a choice between disarmament or a new nuclear arms race, both treaties require our urgent care and attention.

An overwhelming majority of the world’s countries – 174 in fact – have already signed and ratified the CTBT, sending a clear message that nuclear testing is unacceptable and must remain consigned to the past. Lying behind this unity is our acknowledgement of the devastating humanitarian consequences of nuclear weapons and our firm conviction that they must never be used or tested again.

A formative experience for New Zealand was witnessing the devastating impacts of nuclear

testing in the Pacific, the legacy of which is still being felt by Pacific peoples. The tests dislocated communities and forced people from their lands and traditional ways, causing immense and intergenerational harm to human health and the environment. Addressing the legacy of historic nuclear testing must be pursued alongside efforts to ensure no one else has to endure it in future.

New Zealand is proud to support the CTBT and I acknowledge the particular dedication it has taken among member states and the Provisional Technical Secretariat to continue to progress implementation of the Treaty over the past quarter century. The status of the Treaty’s International Monitoring System is testament to our collective determination to bring the Treaty’s aims to fruition, and has yielded many benefits for the international

community, including with respect to tsunami warning.

It also allows us to determine whether the global norm against nuclear testing has been violated, something that only North Korea has done since 2006. I urge North Korea to refrain from conducting any further tests, and to heed longstanding international calls to return to diplomacy.

While I am pleased to celebrate the Treaty’s successes, we must not gloss over the fact that it has not yet delivered us the disarmament benefits promised all those years ago.

The Treaty’s entry into force cannot be achieved until eight specific countries have ratified it. I therefore take this opportunity to urge India, North Korea and Pakistan to sign and ratify the Treaty, and China, Egypt, Iran, Israel and the United States to ratify it.

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New Ambassador to China announced

A career diplomat has been appointed to the role of Ambassador to China. A former High Commissioner to India, Grahame Morton has significant China experience in a range of MFAT roles.

Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta today announced on 15 September the appointment of Grahame Morton as New Zealand’s next Ambassador to China.

“Aotearoa New Zealand and China share a long and important relationship,” said Minister Mahuta. “We will continue to support New Zealand companies, including many iwi businesses, in order to further boost and diversify our growing exports, and provide greater economic security to all New Zealanders.

“We continue to engage directly with China on a range of regional and global priorities. As our links with China continue to grow, I know Mr Morton’s extensive experience across Asia will enhance our relations even further,” Nanaia Mahuta said.

Grahame Morton is a senior diplomat with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT). He has served as High Commissioner to India, Principal Adviser on Americas and Asia, and as the divisional manager of North Asia Division.

Mr Morton was also the lead negotiator of the NZ-Singapore Enhanced partnership and he has led the whole of government New Zealand China Capable Public Sector Programme. He will take up his new role in December 2022.

According to his LinkedIn profile, between May 2018 and August 2018, Mr Morton was

Deputy Head of Mission at the New Zealand Embassy, Washington. In that role he undertook targeted US lobbying in support of major New Zealand economic and security objectives, including Congressional ratification of the KIWI Act, defence relations, Indo pacific policy, and the Pacific.

From March 2014 to January 2017, Mr Morton was New Zealand High Commissioner to India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal, where he led growth in education, tourism and fruit exports, and strengthened social and sporting ties. He led the New Zealand Consular response team following the devastating Nepal earthquake of 2015.

As Principal Adviser, Asia and Americas (February 2017 to October

2020) in Wellington, he provided strategic policy advice covering security, economic, and political issues across the Asia and Americas region.

In this role, he was also a member of the MFAT Overseas Investment Board, and a CEOs representative on the New Zealand China Council and Asia New Zealand Foundation boards.

As North Asia Divisional Manager/Director (December 2010 to March 2014), Mr Morton was responsible for New Zealand’s representation to China, Japan, South Korea, DPRK, Mongolia, Hong Kong and Macao. In this role he supported numerous high level political and economic engagements with China, Japan and Korea, and led New Zealand’s economic cooperation agreement engagement with Taiwan.

As Head of MFAT’s China Unit from August 2009 to December 2010, he led New Zealand policy development on China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Mongolia and Macao. He led cross government engagement strategy for the Shanghai Expo, supported the conclusion of the Hong Kong-New Zealand Closer Economic Partnership, and completed China-NZ negotiations in film co-productions, fisheries, political relations and food safety.

He served as First Secretary at the New Zealand Embassy Beijing from May 2004 to September 2007.

Grahame Morton New Zealand’s new ambassador to China
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INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

SIPRI Report: World stumbling into a new era of risk

World leaders are failing to prepare for a new era of complex and often unpredictable risks to peace as environmental and security crises converge, according to a recent report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

The report, Environment of Peace: Security in a New Era of Risk, explores how different aspects of environmental crisis—including climate change, mass extinctions and resource scarcity—are interacting with a darkening security horizon, offering governments recommendations for action, and principles to guide them.

“Our new report for policymakers goes beyond simply showing that environmental change can increase risks to peace and security. That’s established,” said SIPRI Director and Environment of Peace author Dan Smith. “What our research reveals is the complexity and breadth of that relationship, the many forms it can take. And most of all, we show what can be done about it; how we can deliver peace and security in a new era of risk.”

Twin crises, complex risks Painting a vivid picture of the escalating security crisis, the report notes a doubling in the number of state-based armed conflicts (and conflict deaths) between 2010 and 2020, as well as a doubling in the number of forcibly displaced people to 82.4 million over the same period.

And it doesn’t look like states are uniformly invested in reversing this pattern, with the report’s authors noting an increase in 2020 in the number of operationally deployed nuclear warheads increased after years of reductions, and the

surpassing in 2021 of $2 trillion in military spending for the first time ever.

On the environmental front, it notes species extinctions and resource over-utilisation. Climate change is making extreme weather events such as storms and heatwaves more common and more intense, reducing the yield of major food crops and increasing the risk of largescale harvest failures.

These crises are converging, with droughts and crop failures in various regions combining with other factors, such as poverty, weak government, resource competition, and corruption, to drive populations towards competition, conflict, irregular migration, and extremism.

Cooperation is the new realism Amid increasingly tense geopolitics, simmering interstate disputes, and the rise of populism, the report argues that cooperation is essential for managing the environmental and security crises, along with the risks they create.

“No government can secure the well-being of its citizens against the escalating global crises without international cooperation,’ stated former New Zealand PM and member of the Environment of Peace advisory panel Helen Clark.

“We must urgently find ways to cooperate on addressing common environment-related security threats, even in today’s toxic geopolitical

landscape. Against global threats, cooperation is self-interest. In fact, cooperation is the new realism.”

Pandemic highlights need to expect the unexpected

The Covid-19 pandemic, states the report, has highlighted the gains countries make by preparing for an event whose potential for devastation is clear even if its timing and nature may not be.

It cites the example of South Korea, which managed to keep its Covid-19 mortality rate down to around 10 percent of that of countries with comparable populations in the first two years of the pandemic, by applying lessons from the 2002 SARS outbreak. This approach not only saved lives but also allowed the country to avoid much of the destabilising economic and social impact felt in other countries that chose not to prepare.

“The pandemic shows us clearly the risks we run when we choose not to prepare,’ stated Margot Wallström, Environment of Peace advisory panel leader and former Swedish Foreign Minister and European Commissioner for the Environment.

“As the environmental and security crises get worse, governments need to assess what risks lie ahead, to develop the capacity to deal with them, and to make societies more resilient. The poorest countries will need

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international support to do this, and they should receive it.”

Accordingly, the report recommends that environmental stressors be included in early-warning systems for conflict risk, and urges that treaties on sharing resources such as fisheries, water and forests should be updated to make them fit for purpose.

Only a just and peaceful transition will succeed To tackle climate change and the wider environmental crisis, the report urges governments around the world to bring about major transitions in areas such as energy and land use.

Keeping global warming to the Paris Agreement 1.5C target means reaching net zero carbon emissions globally within three decades. In the area of biodiversity, governments are discussing initiatives such as 30x30—protecting 30 percent of land and ocean area by 2030.

These transitions must succeed, insists the report, because of the immense security risks that would

result from failure. Yet change at the scale and pace needed is unavoidably fraught with risk. The history of measures such as biofuels and hydropower dams shows that they can exacerbate insecurity, with hydropower alone having displaced an estimated 80 million people from their homes.

“We must learn from the mistakes of the past so we do not repeat them on a much larger scale,” said Geoff Dabelko, one of the report’s lead authors and a professor at Ohio University’s Voinovich School of Leadership and Public Service.

“Conservation needs to happen, but it cannot be coercive. A rapid zero-carbon transition is essential but it must be done fairly. Tackling the environmental crisis must go hand-in-hand with justice, equity and rights, building peace rather than undermining it.”

Fund peace, not risk According to the report, governments spend an estimated $5–7 trillion per year on activities that can harm the natural

environment, such as subsidising fossil fuels, destructive fishing and forest clearance.

“If governments want to secure peace in this new era of risk, they need to redirect their financing away from activities that undermine it,” said Environment of Peace expert panellist Arunabha Ghosh of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water.

“Funding conflict risk is in noone’s interest. But many governments continue to fund non-essential and ill-targeted fossil fuel development and other environmentally destructive activities, which neither serve the interests of sustainability nor protect vulnerable communities. We need a wholesale redirection of investment towards peace, environmental stability and resilience.”

To be effective, observes the report, solutions need to be inclusive, with sectors of society that are often marginalised (such as indigenous peoples, women and youth) included in decision-making processes and sharing the benefits.

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HOMELAND SECURITY

Emergency monitoring centre opened to keep New Zealand safer

Staff at NEMA’s new Monitoring, Alerting and Reporting (MAR) Centre monitor, assess and report on potential hazards 24/7, and they provide situational awareness when emergencies arise.

Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty launched the new Monitoring, Alerting and Reporting (MAR) Centre at the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) on 28 June. The new centre is in response to recommendations from the 2018 Ministerial Review following the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake and 2017 Port Hills fire.

The 2018 Ministerial Review into Better Responses to Natural Disasters and Other Emergencies recommended establishing a roundthe-clock operation for monitoring and alerting emergencies enabling more rapid distribution of alerts –particularly in the case of tsunami warnings.

The MAR Centre replaces NEMA’s previous Duty/On-call arrangement with a 24/7 “awake” approach. It is staffed by teams on a rotating roster, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year.

“Today’s launch of the MAR Centre marks another step towards keeping families and communities in Aotearoa New Zealand safer from natural disasters and other emergencies,” Mr McAnulty said.

“In an emergency, every second counts. In the event of an emergency or natural disaster the MAR Centre will provide fast and accurate alerts to the Government and New

Zealanders about what’s happening and what to do.

The new centre’s mission statement is to inform our partners, the government and the New Zealand public of emerging and imminent natural hazard risks to support a safe and resilient Aotearoa New Zealand.

“Today’s launch is part of our comprehensive plan to strengthen the emergency management system and support inclusive, communityled responses, which has been supported by $46.6m over four years in Budget 2021.

“Until now, NEMA operated on an on-call duty system, and so this new centre will make a massive difference to how quickly NEMA can respond to rapidly escalating events, and the ability to foresee and

prepare for other emerging risks.”

“Aotearoa New Zealand experiences many hazards, and the MAR Centre will provide fast and accurate information so that New Zealanders know what to do.” Director of Civil Defence Gary Knowles says.

“Particularly where there is a tsunami threat, we need timely and geographically accurate warnings, and the MAR Centre will provide these.

“Our watch teams will monitor threats, alert the public when it’s needed and report to Government on unfolding situations.

“It will also help regional Civil Defence groups and first responders respond to emergencies in their communities, and provide advice to local and central government.’

The MAR Centre will connect with other agencies and the wider emergency sector so that in the event of an emergency, CDEM groups, local authorities and communities will have the support they need at a national level. They will also get consistent messages about the actions or precautions they can take.

The MAR Centre also brings increased situational awareness of emerging risks, better information sharing with CDEM groups and other 24/7 centres, and faster responses to tsunami alerts.

Kieran McAnulty , Minister for Emergency Management
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Insurance Council calls on councils to prioritise climate resilience

With record claims being posted for extreme weather events, Insurance Council of New Zealand Chief Executive urges local councils to invest in community-centred climate resilience.

New claims data released midSeptember by the Insurance Council of New ZealandTe Kāhui Inihua o Aotearoa (ICNZ) show that weeks of extreme weather over July resulted in 6,266 general insurance claims with a provisional value of $43.7 million.

“Extreme weather continues to hit Aotearoa New Zealand’s communities hard”, said ICNZ Chief Executive, Tim Grafton. “We must act now to increase resilience and so lessen the impact of climate change on our way of life.

“This is not just about those things typically covered by general insurance such as our homes, vehicles and businesses, he said. “We also need to protect our infrastructure, environment and general way of life which is all too easily disrupted by climate-driven extreme weather events.”

Three extreme weather events were declared by the general insurance sector in July, resulting in over $12m each in claims.

Preliminary figures of 807 claims valued at $8.1 million for 20 May’s Levin tornado have been finalised at 930 claims worth $11m.

While preliminary claims data for August’s extreme weather-related claims are expected around the end of the month, July’s events take the running total for such claims in

2022 to around $245m, compared to $324 million for all of 2021, which in itself set a new record.

“The rising cost of climate change is plain for all to see, both within Aotearoa and overseas. This comes at a time when we are facing rising general inflation, outsized building cost inflation and ongoing supply chain issues. These are tough times for customers and insurers alike,” said Tim.

The ICNZ’s Tim Grafton has called upon local councils to invest in community-centred climate resilience. “Incoming mayors, councillors and community board members must prioritise investing in community-centred climate resilience,” he said.

No matter how well current coastal, flood or landslip measures stand up to today’s climate-driven extreme weather events, the ICNZ stated that it is expected that such events will get more frequent and their impacts and costs more severe.

“Investing in measures to reduce climate risks will have widespread benefits for communities and will help support the affordability of insurance the length and breadth of the motu,” said Tim. “Incoming councils must understand the risks facing their communities and to put in place proportionate and timely measures to manage them.”

According to the ICNZ, we are also now seeing the consequences of repeat extreme rain events, sometimes compounded by our background seismic activity, on the incidence of slips and related damage and disruption. Some communities are being cut off for days at a time several times a year, and questions are being raised over the long-term viability of some roads.

“Our communities face multiple climate related risks. All incoming councils have must act to address these if they are to maintain the viability of their communities over the medium to long terms,” said Tim.

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HOMELAND SECURITY

The Evolution of Physical Security Systems

By strengthening their physical security systems, organisations can better adapt to uncertainty and enhance their business operations, writes George Moawad, Country Manager ANZ at Genetec.

As organisations have adapted to new working conditions and to changing priorities since the start of the pandemic, they have also started to closely review how data gathered from their physical security systems can optimise, protect, and enhance their business operations in unique ways.

Larger organisations especially are seeing value in the data gathered by their physical security systems, with more than 46 percent saying they use their security systems to improve overall business efficiency, productivity, and asset optimisation.

It is not surprising then to see why physical security has evolved from the days when it was deployed as a reactionary measure to fight crime and it’s now central to business digital transformation plans, with unified security platforms helping unlock value from the data gathered across physical security systems, allowing organisations to proactively address unforeseen events and unfolding challenges.

As we emerge from the pandemic, organisations are also contending with significant new undercurrents around changes to the physical dimension of work and a corresponding need to achieve operational resilience through integrated risk management.

Although this is not the only challenge they are facing.

While managing hybrid workplaces is top of mind, the recently released Genetec’s State

of Physical Security Report found organisations are also focused on addressing cybersecurity vulnerabilities, adopting cloud-based solutions and driving enterprise transformation by integrating key insights gathered from their physical security systems’ data.

Genetec’s State of Physical Security Report.

In the early days of the pandemic, managing employee and visitor safety were the top priorities, but this year’s report found, not surprisingly, that cybersecurity has now taken over as the number one challenge to address and invest resources in, while visitor management dropped to fifth position.

One of the key reasons for this shift in focus is the rapid increase in the number of employees working remotely, specifically physical operations staff. More than 25% of physical security options staff

are now set up to work remotely which, whilst offering considerable advantages, also unlocks increases in cybercrime potential.

As a result, respondents have re-prioritised budgets, with 36 percent of respondents increasing their investment in cybersecurity related tools for physical security and 49 percent planning to invest in video analytics. More than half of the State of Physical Security Report respondents noted they will at least maintain or increase their investment in physical security between 10 and 50 percent.

Driving cloud adoption

While most physical security deployments still remain on-premises thanks to cybersecurity concerns, 35 percent of respondents in Genetec’s report noted the pandemic had either triggered or accelerated their physical security cloud strategy in the last 12 months.

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All signs suggest the trend toward the cloud is set to continue, with 47% of companies who have currently less than half their physical security environment deployed to the cloud, indicating they plan to further deploy their security solution to the cloud.

Moving physical security environments to the cloud or hybrid cloud offers significant benefits including the ability to enable remote monitoring and functionality across video and camera control, recording management, system health maintenance and applying firmware updates and software patches. For example, the adoption of cloud-based video analytics in particular has now become the newest trend in physical security, with 49% of organisations looking to invest in it.

No matter the installation objective or size, organisations can minimise system maintenance and costs, while enhancing their cyber resilience using cloud solutions, enjoying a shared responsibility for security between the cloud provider and organisation.

Physical security systems drive enterprise transformation

By adapting quickly and using security technology to solve problems, physical security departments have proven that they play a mission-critical role in the digital transformation of organisational processes and in addressing new challenges for their organisations.

Having sufficient data management and structure is key to unlocking additional value from data gathered across physical security systems, and larger organisations intend to invest in data management solutions to advance or improve the functionality of their physical security environment in the next year.

91 percent of respondents now report running both video surveillance and access control in their physical security deployments, allowing them to handle visitor management solutions, capacity management and remote access.

Additionally, exploring how physical security and IT departments can work together as a unified team to develop a coordinated strategy for hardening systems based on a common understanding of risk, responsibilities, strategies, and practices will be critical to improve security monitoring across all network-connected physical security devices, strengthen protection measures for these devices, implement encryption on video streams and data, enhance access defences with multifactor access authentication and improve updates management.

By strengthening their physical security infrastructure and aligning it with data and privacy protection policies, and in that investing in a unified physical security solution deployed through cloud-enabled services, organisations can take a strong step towards adapting to their uncertain future, as well as optimise and enhance business operations into the future.

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HOMELAND SECURITY

What’s behind New Zealand’s Retail Crime Wave

For three decades our crime rates have fallen, but retail theft has ramped up in the past five years, and ram raids have shot up in the past 12 months. Is truant kids or woke policing to blame? Neither, writes Nicholas Dynon, it’s the economy, stupid!

Crime in New Zealand is falling, and it’s been falling since the 1990s. We are living in a society that has been experiencing less and less crime. Youth crime in particular has taken a massive dive.

According to the Ministry of Justice’s Youth Justice Indicators Summary Report – December 2021, for example, offending rates among youth have dropped by 63 percent over the past decade.

But this is probably not what your news feed is telling you.

shows us that nationally in the 12 months to 01 June 2022:

• Theft from a Retail Premises: monthly count for May 2022 was 5,092, up from 4,088 for May 2021. Temporary dips due to COVID lockdowns aside, these crimes have steadily increased over the past five years to over double what they were (2,000 -2,500 per month) throughout 2018.

• Unlawful Entry with Intent

Nicholas Dynon is Chief Editor of Line of Defence Magazine and a widely published commentator on New Zealand’s defence and security affairs.

On the contrary, the media is awash with news of an apparent crime wave. Almost daily we’re confronted with news images of the mangled facades of retail outlets across the country ram raided for jewellery, cigarettes, and sportswear.

What do the statistics tell us?

According to Radio NZ, there has been a 400 percent increase in ram raids in five years, and between 2020 and 2021 they more than doubled from 191 to 436 with 76 percent of those caught under the age of 18. Of 129 ram raids since May this year, “almost all of them”, according to Police Minister Chris Hipkins, were committed by people under 18.

While the jump in ram raids is clearly extreme, what are the statistics telling us in relation to other property crimes? Analysing New Zealand crime data in the SecIntel risk intelligence platform

/ Burglary / Break and Enter: monthly count for May 2022 was 5,619, up from 4,951 for May 2021. The initial COVID lockdowns in mid-2020 significantly reduced these crimes from a peak of 6,802 in January 2020, and it is only since October 2021 that they have returned to levels similar to those throughout 2017 to 2019.

• Aggravated Robbery: monthly count for May 2022 was 231, which closely resembles the count of 232 for May 2021. Temporary dips due to COVID lockdowns aside, these crimes have hovered either side of the 200 per month mark since 2018.

In aggregate, the incidence of these crimes has increased in the 12 months to 31 May 2022. Having said this, out of the above three, it’s only

44 Line of Defence

Theft from a Retail Premises that has shown significant growth over the past five years. Of course, it’s been a strange old five years, with COVID lockdowns causing statistically outlying retail crime troughs in mid2020 and late-2021.

It’s the economy, stupid! The above line was made famous by Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign strategist James Carville. It was a campaign that took full advantage of economic recession in the US to unseat George Bush and relegate him to one-term president status.

New Zealand of 2022 is thankfully not in recession, and our 3.3 percent unemployment rate isn’t at all shabby, but we are in the midst of what many commentators are referring to as a cost of living crisis.

Statistics NZ’s second quarter CPI revealed in July that annual inflation was at 7.3 percent – the highest inflation rate in three

decades. Stats NZ announced last month that annual food prices increased by 5.9 percent from January 2021 to January 2022 – the highest amount in over a decade.

A recent report by Australia’s ABC News noted that in New Zealand supermarkets, “butter is pushing $10 a tub and milk is more than $8 for three litres: this in a country where there are more dairy cows than people.”

Historically, and as Scott LaFranchie eloquently noted in a recent issue of Line of Defence Magazine, there is strong correlation between economic stressors and the incidence of economic crime, and the king of these is inflation. Several pieces of international research have established a pattern of statistical increases in crime during historical periods of rising inflation.

One of the many examples of these is a study published in 2007 by the journal Global Crime, which examined the relationship between crime and inflation and

unemployment in the United States from 1960 to 2005. According to the authors: “Crime rates rise as the inflation rate rises. Because of the lag between price and wage adjustments, inflation lowers the real income of low-skilled labour, but rewards property criminals due to the rising demand and subsequent high profits in the illegal market.”

Basically, as rising inflation erodes consumers’ purchasing power, this causes them to ‘trade down’, or buy cheaper. Those who are already buying the cheapest goods are inevitably faced with the prospect of having to turn – knowingly or unknowingly – to markets in stolen goods, and this increased demand in the shadow economy incentivises criminals to create supply.

In New Zealand, along with historically low inflation since the mid-1990s, our crime rates have generally kept to a downward trend, but it’s no surprise that we’re now seeing rising property crimes amid historically high levels of inflation.

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HOMELAND SECURITY

Joint IPCA/OPC investigation recommends overhaul of Police privacy practices

Independent Police Conduct Authority and Office of the Privacy Commissioner Joint Inquiry into Police conduct when photographing members of the public finds systemic privacy breaches.

The report found that a general lack of awareness amongst Police of their obligations under the Privacy Act has led to officers routinely taking, using and retaining photographs when it is not lawful for them to do so. It also found that thousands of photographs of members of the public were either incorrectly stored or retained.

The Joint Inquiry was initiated in March 2020 after Wairarapa whānau complained that Police officers were photographing their rangatahi in circumstances they felt was unfair or unjustified.

After subsequent media coverage led more people to report similar experiences, it became apparent that the issues these incidents raised had much broader application. The Inquiry considered wider concerns about the way in which photographs or video recordings of members of the public were being taken, used, and retained in a variety of policing contexts.

The Joint Inquiry highlighted that while Police will sometimes have lawful and valid reasons to take photographs, it must be done in a privacy-compliant way. “Digital photography can be a powerful policing tool,” stated an OPC media release, “but as sensitive biometric personal information it must also be collected, used, stored and retained lawfully and safely.”

The Joint Inquiry found that Police were not justified in photographing the rangatahi, as the photographs were not necessary for a lawful policing purpose. We also found that, in these incidents, Police had not properly sought consent from the rangatahi or their parents or caregivers before taking the photographs, and had not adequately explained why the photographs were being taken and what they would be used for.

Police had also developed a practice of regularly taking duplicate sets of “voluntary” fingerprints and photographs from youths who ended up in Police custody for suspected offending and retaining them for a longer period than permitted by the regime for compulsory prints and photographs under the Policing Act.

The joint inquiry also found a widespread belief amongst

officers that “there is no difference between photographing adults or youths for intelligence-gathering or investigative purposes, notwithstanding the fact that children and young people have special protections in the NZ criminal justice system, set out in both the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (UNCROC) and the Oranga Tamariki Act.”

“Many officers mistakenly see consent as allowing them to collect personal information, including photographs and prints, in situations where the law does not otherwise allow them to do so,” stated the OPC. “We found that a person’s consent cannot make the otherwise unlawful or unnecessary collection of personal information lawful or compliant with the Privacy Act.

46 Line of Defence

Trans-Tasman Cooperation on disaster management

Strengthening Trans-Tasman cooperation on disaster management issues was a key area of focus when Australia and New Zealand’s disaster management ministers met in September on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction.

Australia’s Minister for Emergency Management, Senator Murray Watt, met with New Zealand’s Minister of Emergency Management, Kieran McAnulty, to discuss experiences in preparing for and responding to natural hazards and severe weather events.

Officials from New Zealand and Australia’s National Emergency Management Agencies also signed a Memorandum of Cooperation on disaster management.

The agreement will encourage greater information-sharing on emergency management research and best practice, facilitate shared disaster assistance such as technical advisors where required, and explore opportunities for joint activities and exercises, between the two countries.

The agreement will also enable a more connected approach to regional and international engagement.

“This agreement gives us the chance to continue to work together and figure out how we can help each other prepare for an event, and respond when it comes,” Minister McAnulty said.

“Australia and New Zealand face similar natural hazards, and so

there’s a lot our countries can learn from each other. Each response gives us the opportunity to improve our systems, and the more information we have, the better prepared we can be.”

“With the rate and scale of emergencies increasing globally, it’s important, now more than ever, that friends work together to build resilience and reduce risk.”

Minister Watt highlighted the importance of this conference, which brings together ministers to discuss approaches to reducing the impacts of disasters.

“Working with other countries, such as New Zealand, will help us to build greater awareness and capability on disaster issues, particularly as we face continued wet weather conditions this summer, caused by a third consecutive La Niña event,” Minister Watt said.

“I look forward to a very collaborative partnership with New Zealand across a range of disaster management issues.

The establishment of Australia’s newly formed National Emergency Management Agency provides a strong driver for us to enhance

this collaboration further, given the similarity in our emergency management structures.

Ministers recognised there was significant value in strengthening cooperation between Australia and New Zealand, to share experiences in disaster management and build the respective capability of their National Emergency Management Agencies.

Australia and New Zealand already have a long-standing relationship in cooperating on disaster management, including sharing resources and incident management personnel to assist with the response to significant disaster events.

The signing of the Memorandum of Cooperation with the Australian National Emergency Management Agency follows the recent signing of another Memorandum of Cooperation between NEMA and the United States’ Federal Emergency Management Agency.

The agreement is part of NEMA’s wider with a specific focus on the Pacific and our commitments under the United Nations and regional frameworks.

Joint Statement by New Zealand and Australian Ministers for Emergency Management recognises value in strengthening cooperation, sharing experiences, and building National Emergency Management Agency capability.
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Articles inside

Trans-Tasman Cooperation on disaster management

2min
pages 47-48

Joint IPCA/OPC investigation recommends overhaul of Police privacy practices

2min
page 46

What’s behind New Zealand’s Retail Crime Wave

4min
pages 44-45

Emergency monitoring centre opened to keep New Zealand safer

2min
page 40

The Evolution of Physical Security Systems

4min
pages 42-43

New Ambassador to China announced

2min
page 37

Insurance Council calls on councils to prioritise climate resilience

2min
page 41

SIPRI Report: World stumbling into a new era of risk

5min
pages 38-39

CTBT successes remain limited as several countries yet to ratify

2min
page 36

2022’s supercharged summer of climate extremes

3min
page 35

Trans-Tasman partnership to provide world-class satellite positioning services

4min
pages 26-27

Microgravity Experimentation Services on the Rise

7min
pages 30-32

Christchurch-based Fabrum joins team pushing aviation towards hydrogen flight

4min
pages 28-29

Kea Aerospace unveils NZ-first stratospheric aircraft design

2min
page 24

Nukes, allies, weapons and cost: 4 big questions NZ’s defence review must address

4min
pages 22-23

Clock ticking on New Zealand Space Policy Review

4min
pages 33-34

New Aerospace Engineering Degree Launches In Christchurch

2min
page 25

What a realistic increase in Defence spending can deliver

7min
pages 20-21

NZDF working with Pacific partners to support regional security

2min
page 14

RNZAF flight signals start of Antarctic summer season

2min
page 11

Nova Systems Solving Challenges for the NZDF

5min
pages 16-17

P-8A Poseidon: Maritime surveillance capability delivery on schedule

2min
page 15

Construction begins on NZDF/ MFAT Leadership Centre in Tonga

3min
pages 18-19

Strengthening trade across the Tasman

3min
pages 12-13

Quiet Achiever: Hybrid-electric Joint Light Tactical Vehicle

4min
pages 6-7
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