US bank regulator reports key risks and effects of COVID-19 The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s Semi-annual Risk Perspective for Fall 2021 reports that risky times continue for banks as the COVID-19 pandemic persists and the outlook remains uncertain.
The Office of the Comptroller’s (OCC) Semiannual Risk Perspective addresses key issues facing banks in the US, focusing on those that pose threats to the safety and soundness of banks and their compliance with applicable laws and regulations.
Published in November 2021 by the OCC’s National Risk Committee, the report identifies ongoing risk exposures in the areas of credit risk, strategic risk, operational risk and compliance risk associated with the continuing impacts of COVID-19. Credit risk According to the OCC, credit risk among US banks remains moderate with loan portfolios remaining resilient and the fact that “widespread credit deterioration has not materialized from the crisis due to appropriate risk management by banks, improvements in economic activity, and the remaining effects of pandemic-related government actions and relief programs.” On the flip side, the duration of the pandemic, its impact on demand for credit, and non-bank competition have the potential to place pressure on some banks’ credit discipline as economic recovery continues and opportunities for loan growth return. Commercial real estate remains an area of particular concern for the OCC. “Changing consumer and business preferences related to shopping, travel, and returning to the 18
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office may lead to medium- and longterm income and valuation challenges in certain commercial real estate sectors,” states the report. Stress in the retail sector remains, particularly in retail strip malls, and the hospitality sector continues to face challenges. Leasing activity for office space remains subdued and sublease availability continues to rise in many markets. Despite jobless figures, retail delinquency and losses remained stable and did not significantly increase as expected at the outset of the pandemic. The report attributed this to government stimulus packages, widespread mandated and voluntary forbearance programs (involving mortgage servicers/lenders allowing mortgagees to pause or reduce their mortgage payments for a limited time while they build back their finances), more resilient underwriting, and strong residential real estate and automobile values. With improving economic conditions, most banks are re-entering credit markets or easing credit standards that had been tightened earlier in the pandemic, and the OCC recommends that banks avoid complacency in their lending activities. Strategic risk According to the OCC’s Fall 2020 report twelve months beforehand, banks’ net income declined sharply due to higher loan loss provisions and historically low net interest margins (NIM) primarily due to banks holding high levels of low yielding assets.
A year later, the latest report, identifies elevated strategic risk associated with banks’ management of NIM compression and efforts to improve earnings. “Stimulus measures, low-yield investment options, and reduced lending opportunities fuelled deposit inflows that resulted in additional highly liquid assets and lower margins as banks struggled to find yield,” stated the report. Banks may attempt to further improve earnings through measures including increasing credit risk (in both loans and investments), extending loan duration, and cost cutting. Operational risk The move to remote working and an evolving and complex operating environment are elevating financial institutions’ exposure to operational risk. Cybersecurity threats are a key contributor to this heightened operational risk environment. According to the report, the OCC has observed an increase in ransomware attacks in financial services. “These attacks continue to leverage phishing emails targeting employees and compromised credentials to gain access to networks through remote access channels. Once access is gained, the attackers conduct ransomware and other extortion campaigns.” “Expansion of remote financial services via personally owned computers and mobile devices, remote work options, such as virtual private networks, and reliance on third party providers to include cloud-based February/March 2022
