1. Executive summary

The Sea Freight Flowers project aimed to test the viability of exporting flowers from Kenya to Europe/UK, spurred by the impact that COVID-19 has had on reduced availability and increased cost of air freight. Thirteen refrigerated containers of flowers were organised by the project over a nine month period to assess the quality of product on arrival compared to air freight. The project also commissioned an economic analysis of the long-term impact of sea freight on the growth of the Kenyan flower sector and a study on the carbon emissions reductions potential of sea freight.

Quality case: The quality and vase life assessments confirmed that when the prescribed processing conditions and treatments are adhered to, sea freighted flowers are of a comparable standard to those that are air freighted.

Financial case: As freight is paid per kilo, the comparison with sea freight shows that commercially material savings can be achieved for ‘heavy’ roses and carnations but are less significant for lighter flower varieties. Average savings for a base case scenario and based on trial data was $4,934 per container, equivalent to 1 euro cent per stem.

Interviews with industry experts support a conservative estimated freight increase of 10% in the medium term (five years) and 25% in the long term (ten years). Optimistic scenarios of 25% and 50% would only likely be achieved through increasing importance placed on environmental benefits/carbon emission reduction, and investment in port logistics. These estimates equate to cumulative direct savings of $35.5m and $89.5m over five years for conservative and optimistic scenarios respectively, increasing to $141.8m and $305.9m over ten years.

Employment: The Kenyan flower industry currently directly employs around 200,000 people (Tulezi, 2021). This is projected to increase by between 2,513 (conservative) and 5,050 (optimistic) over five years and respectively by between 7,626 and 15,510 over ten years as a direct result of adopting sea freight measures. This employment will be generated at the farm level from increases in production area, expansion of existing operations and from new entrants to the sector and transport and processing in Kenya.

Environmental case: The project funded a study by Cranfield University to update carbon emissions analysis using data from the trials. This shows that a carbon emission reduction of up to 95% is achievable if sea freight is used rather than air freight to bring flowers from Kenya to the Netherlands (Williams, 2021).

Using the projections for growth in the Kenyan flower sector, the carbon savings from transporting flowers from Kenya to Europe by sea could be between 650m (conservative) to 1.4bn (optimistic) kg CO2 Eq. per annum in ten years’ time.

Conclusion: The insights gained from the sea freight trials, and the subsequent carbon impact and economic analyses, show that exporting flowers by sea from Kenya to Europe/UK is a burgeoning opportunity with positive commercial, employment and carbon reduction outcomes.