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TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................. 2 CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................... 5 INVESTOR PITCH (BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS).................................................................................... 13 FINANCIAL DASHBOARD (EXPECTATIONS) ......................................................................................... 16
CHAPTER 2: BUSINESS MODEL .................................................... 17 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................ 17 COMPANY OVERVIEW ...................................................................................................................... 18 Problem worth Solving – Market Needs................................................................................................. 18 The Solution – Our Company and Its Products ....................................................................................... 19 The Services Offered ............................................................................................................................... 20 Fulfillment and Support .......................................................................................................................... 21 Milestones .............................................................................................................................................. 22 Management Team and Shareholding ................................................................................................... 23 Organizational Structure......................................................................................................................... 24 Supplier Analysis ..................................................................................................................................... 25 STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES..................................................................................................................... 26 KEYS TO SUCCESS ............................................................................................................................. 27 SWOT ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................... 28 STRATEGIC RISK ANALYSIS (360° STRATEGIC DIAGNOSTICS) ............................................................... 30 INDUSTRY AND MARKET ................................................................................................................... 33 Industry Highlights and Synopsis ............................................................................................................ 33 The Construction Industry ...................................................................................................................... 34 Home Improvement in South Africa ....................................................................................................... 35 Housing Backlog in South Africa ............................................................................................................. 36 The RDP Program .................................................................................................................................... 37 The E-Commerce Industry ...................................................................................................................... 40 2017 © All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 2 of 120
The Retail Industry .................................................................................................................................. 57 A Macro-Economic Analysis of South Africa........................................................................................... 58 A Risk Analysis of the Global Economy ................................................................................................... 66 Major Disruptive Global Trends (That Will Impact All Industries) .......................................................... 68 HIGH-LEVEL MARKETING PLAN.......................................................................................................... 72 Marketing Objectives.............................................................................................................................. 72 Market Segments.................................................................................................................................... 72 Key Differentiators (Competitive Advantage) ........................................................................................ 73 Competitive Analysis .............................................................................................................................. 74 Marketing Initiatives (Programmes) ....................................................................................................... 75 Digital (Online) Marketing Strategy ........................................................................................................ 77 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENTAL FORCES ANALYSIS ................................................................................ 80 Political Analysis ..................................................................................................................................... 82 Economic Analysis .................................................................................................................................. 83 Social Analysis ......................................................................................................................................... 85 Technological Analysis ............................................................................................................................ 87 Environmental Analysis .......................................................................................................................... 88 Legal Analysis .......................................................................................................................................... 89 SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT .................................................................................................... 90
CHAPTER 3: FINANCIAL MODEL ................................................... 94 FINANCIAL ASSUMPTIONS AND NOTES.............................................................................................. 94 General ................................................................................................................................................... 94 Debtors Days........................................................................................................................................... 94 Creditors Days......................................................................................................................................... 94 FUNDING/FINANCING (INVESTMENT) ............................................................................................... 95 Funding/Financing (Investment) Requirement ...................................................................................... 95 Funding/Financing Allocation (Use of Funds) ......................................................................................... 95 Investments to be made on fixed assets (Use of Funds) ........................................................................ 96 Beginning Balance Sheet ........................................................................................................................ 97 SALES ............................................................................................................................................... 98 Sales Projections | Annual | Year 1-5 ..................................................................................................... 98 Sales Projections | Monthly | Year 1-2 .................................................................................................. 99 PERSONNEL REQUIREMENTS .......................................................................................................... 101 Personnel Plan ...................................................................................................................................... 101 2017 © All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 3 of 120
Job Categories....................................................................................................................................... 102 Payroll Expenses | Annual | Year 1-5 ................................................................................................... 103 INCOME STATEMENT ...................................................................................................................... 104 Income Statement | Summary ............................................................................................................. 104 Income Statement | Annual | Year 1-5 ................................................................................................ 105 Income Statement | Monthly | Year 1-2 .............................................................................................. 107 CASH FLOW STATEMENT................................................................................................................. 111 Cash Flow | Annual | Year 1-5 .............................................................................................................. 111 Cash Flow | Monthly | Year 1-2 ........................................................................................................... 112 BALANCE SHEET.............................................................................................................................. 116 Balance Sheet | Annual | Year 1-5 ....................................................................................................... 116 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS (WHAT-IF SCENARIO STUDY)......................................................................... 117 Projected Income Statement vs. What-If Scenario .............................................................................. 118 Projected Cash Flow Statement vs. What-If Scenario .......................................................................... 119
DISCLAIMER ......................................................................... 120
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CHAPTER 1: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Business Model Overview: The purpose of this Business Plan is to provide investors and financial institutions with the information necessary to evaluate the scope of Kentile Roofing’s offering in the market and its strategic priorities for its future growth. Additionally, it will serve as a guide for the management by establishing goals against which performance can be measured. Our pre-market research has shown the market to have sufficient room for a business such as Kentile Roofing intends to run. The management style is flexible, progressive and energetic. The enthusiasm of the management, as well as the employees, will greatly stimulate the envisioned growth. Kentile Roofing is a newly established Company that was formed to close the gap and break the monopoly nature of the roof tiling market in the KZN (Kwazulu-Natal) region in South Africa. The company identified its opportunity through its involvement in the construction industry by its founders and management. There is a huge demand for concrete roof tiles in the RDP housing market with only a few big companies controlling the market now due to the prohibitive cost associated with the machinery and equipment to set up a concrete roof tile business. With many of previously disadvantaged individuals not having access to capital markets, controlling the value chain of the roof tile market can only be a pipeline dream. Kentile Roofing has taken a step further than secondary market analysis to secure its target market through letters of intent to do business with the company and off-take agreements with key customers. Key to the company’s success will be its highly organized operations as detailed in this plan coupled with management experience and key contacts (relationships) in the industry.
Opportunity Rationale: One of the key questions that raises up when one is planning to start a business is how the opportunity of business was identified and why that particular business is the one they are starting than any other? In this particular case, the biggest motivation behind the business is that all shareholders run successful construction companies and have seen an opportunity within their value chain that is worth exploiting and doing so in a profitable and sustainable way. The construction companies (owned or run by management) all use concrete roof tiles in some of the projects they are involved in. Besides their own construction companies, a lacuna exists within the region for a new black owned company that will produce quality products at market related prices. Under Michael Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, the establishment of Kentile Roofing will lower the bargaining power of suppliers for the construction companies and thereby increase industry attractiveness of the businesses they currently run. Roof tile manufacturing will be a complementary vertical integration proposition to the partners of the business.
Market Research: Detailed Market Research has been conducted on the Primary Industry in which the company operates, i.e. Construction and Tiling Industry of South Africa. The findings of the research are included under the Industry Analysis section of this Business Plan. Further supporting Market Research that has been conducted (Secondary- and Tertiary Industries) is included in the Industry and Market Section of this Business Plan. The Secondary- and Tertiary Industries referred to are those markets/industries that have either a direct/indirect impact on Kentile Roofing.
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Financial Model Overview: It has been assumed that Non-Equity Funding (Business Loan/Debt Financing) will be applied for by the Kentile Roofing. For the purposes of this Business Plan and Financial Projections Model, the company has prepared its projected financial performance over a five (5) year, sixty (60) month period. Private Investor sources (equity financing) may be considered by Kentile Roofing. The investment could be in the form of a shareholders’ loan with an equity component. The extent of the equity taken in the business could be calculated in proportion to the contribution made by the investor(s) and would be for a minority stake (less than 50.0%). During the period of the investment agreement, the investor(s) would share in both the risks and rewards of the venture, receiving dividends and benefiting from capital appreciation. Once the shareholders’ loan(s) have been repaid in full, the investor(s) will provide Kentile Roofing with first right of refusal in the event of the investor(s) wishing to sell their shares and exit the business/project. The required funding assumes that the repayment of the business loan will be completed within no more than ten (10) years for buildings and land whilst equipment and vehicles will be repaid over five (5) years, with monthly Capital- (Principal Amount) and Interest Repayments accounted for (as detailed in both the Profit and Loss and Cash Flow Statements). For the purposes of the Financial Projections Model, the annual interest rate is expected not to exceed 9.50% per annum (Prime Lending Rate1 minus 1.0%). Included in Kentile Roofing’s funding requirement is an amount needed to acquire various Fixed Assets. This loan could be treated as Senior Secured Debt2. The balance of the company’s funding requirement will be allocated towards Start-Up Expenses, Inventory, and Working Capital. Kentile Roofing requires Funding to establish its operations and initiate various marketing initiatives, acquire fixed assets, and fund its start-up costs. An amount has been allocated towards Working Capital to sustain the company during the first year of the projected Financial Model. Kentile Roofing’s funding requirement from External Sources amounts to R50,000,000.00. The owners are looking to obtain its first instalment of funding by the end of December 2017. The currency used throughout the Financial Projections Model is South African Rand (ZAR). 140,000,000 120,000,000 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Total sales
79,375,000
97,477,600
104,359,519
111,727,301
119,615,248
Gross profit
29,567,453
38,415,146
41,305,109
44,404,326
47,734,405
Operating expenses
5,139,950
4,894,095
5,202,415
5,531,023
5,881,282
Net business result
12,569,908
19,457,816
21,690,948
24,097,290
26,695,107
Figure 1: Five-Year Profit and Loss Projections
The Prime Lending Rate as at January 2017 amounts to 10.50%, with the 3-month average JIBAR (Johannesburg Interbank Average Rate) at 7.30%; Repo Rate at 6.75%; and the South African Treasury Bills (364 day) averaging 7.38%. Currently, institutions like the IDC, NEF and DBSA are providing financing through either preference shares or standard business loans. It is expected that debt is currently priced at 6-9% above JIBAR, equating to a range of 13-16% at the time of writing, and is typically repaid through periodic (e.g. annual, quarterly, etc.) project/business dividends and/or monthly capital- and interest repayments. 1
Senior Secured Debt refers to debt backed or secured by collateral to reduce the risk associated with lending. An example would be a mortgage; the house is considered collateral towards the debt. If one default on repayment, the bank seizes the house, sells it and uses the proceeds to pay back the debt. Assets backing debt or a debt instrument are considered security, which means they can be claimed by the lender if default occurs. Obviously unsecured debt is higher risk, and as such lenders of unsecured money typically require a much higher return. 2
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Financial Projections Model Summary: (R)
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Total
Operating results
Kentile Roofing Compound annual growth rates
Total sales
79,375,000
97,477,600
104,359,519
111,727,301
119,615,248
512,554,667
10.80%
Discounts & returns
-1,587,500
-1,949,552
-2,087,190
-2,234,546
-2,392,305
-10,251,093
10.80%
Cost of goods sold
48,220,047
57,112,902
60,967,220
65,088,429
69,488,538
300,877,135
9.56%
Gross profit
29,567,453
38,415,146
41,305,109
44,404,326
47,734,405
201,426,438
12.72%
5,139,950
4,894,095
5,202,415
5,531,023
5,881,282
26,648,765
3.43%
24,427,503
33,521,050
36,102,694
38,873,303
41,853,123
174,777,673
14.41%
Operating expenses EBITDA Non operating income (expense) Depreciation and amortization Interest on loans
2,423,259
2,423,259
2,423,259
2,423,259
2,423,259
12,116,297
4,546,036
4,073,048
3,553,117
2,981,584
2,353,327
17,507,113
-15.18%
17,458,207
27,024,743
30,126,318
33,468,459
37,076,537
145,154,264
20.72%
Company tax
4,888,299
7,566,927
8,435,370
9,371,169
10,381,430
40,643,195
20.72%
Net earnings
12,569,908
19,457,816
21,690,948
24,097,290
26,695,107
104,511,069
20.72%
438,884
955,192
1,056,633
1,175,977
1,303,570
4,930,255
31.28%
Current assets
29,862,701
48,550,020
67,061,614
87,380,332
109,627,557
342,482,224
38.42%
Current liabilities
22,817,961
22,932,943
20,974,094
18,792,137
16,350,714
101,867,849
-7.99%
Net profit / loss
Dividends
Financial position
Working capital
7,044,740
25,617,077
46,087,520
68,588,195
93,276,844
240,614,375
90.76%
Fixed assets (net)
36,945,231
34,521,972
32,098,713
29,675,453
27,252,194
160,493,563
-7.33%
Total assets
66,807,932
83,071,992
99,160,327
117,055,786
136,879,751
502,975,787
19.64%
Shareholders' equity
12,131,024
30,633,648
51,267,963
74,189,277
99,580,814
267,802,727
69.27%
Capital expenditures
-
Shareholders' capital Number of shares issued
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
EBITDA per share
24,427.50
33,521.05
36,102.69
38,873.30
41,853.12
14.41%
Earnings per share
12,569.91
19,457.82
21,690.95
24,097.29
26,695.11
20.72%
Net asset value per share
66,807.93
83,071.99
99,160.33
117,055.79
136,879.75
19.64%
25,482,366
22,298,854
21,678,883
20,990,495
20,222,000
Return on revenues
16.16%
20.37%
21.21%
22.01%
22.77%
Return on assets
25.14%
29.13%
26.11%
24.30%
22.81%
160.40%
70.81%
47.00%
35.98%
2.12
3.20
4.65
6.70
Financial ratios Break even point (R)
Return on equity Current ratio
1.31
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Gross profit vs. Operating expenses 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 Gross profit
30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Figure 2: Gross profit versus Operational Expenses
160,000,000 140,000,000 120,000,000 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Cash in
84,477,500
108,871,085
116,557,383
124,786,335
133,596,250
Cash out
68,642,009
90,483,449
98,366,626
104,811,172
111,716,835
Figure 3: Five-Year Cash Flow Projections
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120,000,000 104,049,973
100,000,000
82,170,558
80,000,000
62,195,395
60,000,000 44,004,637
40,000,000 25,617,001 20,000,000
0 2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Figure 4: Five-Year Ending Cash (Bank) Balance Projections
140,000,000 120,000,000 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Tile Manufacturing
77,175,000
94,894,380
101,593,923
108,766,454
116,445,366
Supporting Services
2,200,000
2,583,220
2,765,595
2,960,846
3,169,882
Figure 5: Sales Projections by Distribution Channel
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14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2,592,000
2,947,520
3,112,371
3,287,113
3,472,340
General & Administrative
200,200
211,432
223,338
235,958
249,336
Sales & Marketing
413,500
437,260
462,446
489,142
517,441
Management
Drivers Production
824,600
871,256
920,711
977,134
1,034,702
10,405,400
11,024,024
11,679,765
12,374,851
13,111,642
Figure 6: Five-Year Personnel (Payroll) Projections
Key Financial Ratios: Profitability ratios & Break even
2018
Gross profit margin %
38.0%
Return on assets
25.1%
Return on equity
2019
2020
2021
2022
40.2%
40.4%
40.6%
40.7%
29.1%
26.1%
24.3%
22.8%
160.4%
70.8%
47.0%
36.0%
Break even point (R)
25,482,366
22,298,854
21,678,883
20,990,495
20,222,000
Break-even sales monthly average (R)
1,779,879
1,860,478
1,808,428
1,749,208
1,685,167
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Liquidity ratios Current ratio
1.31
2.12
3.20
4.65
6.70
Quick ratio
1.31
2.12
3.20
4.65
6.71
Cash ratio
1.12
1.92
2.97
4.37
6.36
Interest coverage
3.84
6.64
8.48
11.23
15.75
Solvency ratios
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Total assets / Total liabilities
1.22
1.58
2.07
2.73
3.67
Total liabilities / Total assets x 100%
81.84
63.12
48.30
36.62
27.25
Shareholders' capital / Foreign capital
0.22
0.58
1.07
1.73
2.67
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Shareholders' capital / Total assets x 100%
18.16
36.88
51.70
63.38
72.75
Debt to worth ratio
4.51
1.71
0.93
0.58
0.37
Net worth (R)
12,131,024
30,633,649
51,267,964
74,189,277
99,580,813
Working capital
2018 Net working capital (R)
Activity ratios
2019
7,044,740
2018
2020
25,617,077
2019
2021
46,087,520
2020
2022
68,588,195
2021
93,276,844
2022
Inventory turnover Average collection period
19.79
17.25
17.25
17.25
17.25
Total asset turnover
1.16
1.15
1.03
0.94
0.86
Dividend payout
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
Sustainable Growth Rate (SGR)
2018
2019
ROE x Earnings retention ratio ROA x Retention ratio x Debt-to-equity
Z-score Bankruptcy Prediction Model
107.6%
2018
Z-score ratio
2020
2022
152.4%
67.3%
44.7%
34.2%
47.4%
23.2%
13.3%
8.1%
2019
2.51
2021
2020
3.09
2021
3.30
2022
3.58
3.97
(R)
Operating cash flow & Free cash flow
2018
EBIT
2019
2020
2021
2022
22,004,244
31,097,791
33,679,435
36,450,043
39,429,864
2,423,259
2,423,259
2,423,259
2,423,259
2,423,259
Income tax
6,161,188
8,707,382
9,430,242
10,206,012
11,040,362
Operating cash flow (OCF)
18,266,315
24,813,669
26,672,452
28,667,290
30,812,761
Capital expenditure (Capex)
0
0
0
0
0
Change in working capital
7,044,740
18,572,336
20,470,443
22,500,675
24,688,649
Free cash flow (FCF)
11,221,575
6,241,333
6,202,009
6,166,615
6,124,112
+ Depreciation & Amortization -
-
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Internal Rate of Return (IRR): Annual Interest Rate (Discount Rate3)
12.900%
Investment/Funding (Investments from External Sources)
50,000,000
Year
Net Cash Flow (Change in Cash)
2018
15,835,491
2019
18,387,636
2020
18,190,758
2021
19,975,163 21,879,415
2022
15,315,056
Net Present Value (NPV4)
24.166%
Internal Rate of Return (IRR5)
3 Discount Rate refers to the interest rate used to discount future cash flows to the present value, which is a key variable in the process of determining
the NPV. A company’s weighted average cost of capital (after tax) is often used, but many people believe that it is appropriate to use higher discount rates to adjust for risk, opportunity cost, or other factors. Another approach to choosing the discount rate factor is to decide the rate which the capital needed for the project/business could return if invested in an alternative venture. If, for example, the capital required for Business A can earn 15.00% elsewhere, use this discount rate in the NPV calculation to allow a direct comparison to be made between Business A and the alternative. For some professional investors, their investment funds are committed to target a specified rate of return. In such cases, that rate of return should be selected as the discount rate for the NPV calculation. In this way, a direct comparison can be made between the profitability of the project/business and the desired rate of return. The higher the potential risk of the Project/Business, the higher the discount rate to be used. Net Present Value (NPV) refers to the different between the present value cash inflows and the present value of cash outflows. NPV is used in capital budgeting to analyse the profitability of an investment or project. In finance, the net present value (NPV) or net present worth (NPW) is defined as the sum of the present values (PVs) of incoming and outgoing cash flows over a period. 4
The discount rate often used in capital budgeting that makes the net present value of all cash flows from a project equal to zero. The higher a project's internal rate of return, the more desirable it is to undertake the project. As such, Internal Rate of Return (IRR) can be used to rank several prospective businesses/projects to invest in. Assuming all other factors are equal among the various projects/businesses, the project/business with the highest IRR would probably be considered the best and undertaken first. IRR is sometimes referred to as ‘economic rate of return (ERR)’. 5
One can think of IRR as the rate of growth a project/business is expected to generate. While the actual rate of return that a given project/business ends up generating will often differ from its estimated IRR rate, a project/business with a substantially higher IRR value than other available investment options would still provide a much better chance of strong growth. IRR’s can also be compared against prevailing rates of return in the securities market, e.g. the JSE (Johannesburg Stock Exchange). If an investor can't find any projects/businesses with IRRs greater than the returns that can be generated in the financial markets, it may simply choose to invest its investment funds into the market (in this case, the local Johannesburg Stock Exchange). Over the past 90 years, i.e. since the beginning of 1925, the South African equity market has delivered an average annual real return of 8.4%, which means that a lump sum equivalent of R1,000 today, invested in 1925, would have grown to more than R1,35 million at the end of 2014 after inflation is stripped out. Over the past 10 years (January 2006 to December 2015) annual returns on the FTSE/JSE All-Share averaged 12.900% per annum (before inflation). The FTSE/JSE Top 40 return 12.750% during the same period. The SA All Bond Index (ALBI) returned an average 8.910% per annum and the money market, represented by the three-month interbank lending rate (JIBAR) returned an average 7.300% per annum before any fees and inflation. With the above being said, a potential investor – when comparing an investment into a project/business to the rates of return of the South African equity market – would seek an IRR of at least 12.900%. Index % (ZAR)
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
FTSE/JSE All-Share
41.2%
19.2%
-23.2%
32.1%
19.0%
2.6%
26.7%
21.4%
10.9%
5.1%
FTSE/JSE Top 40
40.9%
19.0%
-23.6%
31.7%
17.2%
22.2%
26.1%
22.8%
9.2%
7.5%
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INVESTOR PITCH (BUSINESS MODEL CANVAS)
Key Partners
Key Activities
Construction Company Owners
Design and Manufacturing of Concrete Roof Tiles
Implementation Agents
Reaching the Target Market through Online and Retail Distribution Channels
Hardware Stores
Key Resources
Marketing Companies
Designers and Production Engineers
Protile Manufacturers (Plant Supply)
Raw Material Suppliers Marketing and PR Expertise (Management Team/Shareholders)
Value Proposition 100% Black Owned Company High-Quality Products Customisation of product quality to suit different environments when necessary Add to low-cost housing capabilities Price of products in comparison to the market but with a service advantage Accessibility of products through leading retailers Convenience/Usability
FINANCIAL DASHBOARD (EXPECTATIONS)
24.166% IRR R79.4 million R119.6 million (Year 5)
(Year 1)
R50 million Repayment Period: 120 Months for Building and Land | 60 Months for Equipment Annual Interest Rate: 9.50%
Funding Required
Sales
(R24.4 million)
R41.8 million
(Year 1)
(Year 5)
EBITDA
R29.6 million R47.7 million (Year 1)
(Year 5)
Gross Profit
Around - R1,8 million on first year
Company Tax
Break-Even Point
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Operational Expenses
R4.8 million
R10.3 million
(Year 1)
(Year 5)
R5.1 million
R5.8 million
(Year 1)
(Year 5)
With Start-up Expenses
...............................................................................................
CHAPTER 2: BUSINESS MODEL INTRODUCTION The successful delivery of the government and the private sector infrastructure programmes depends on the effective functioning of many stakeholders - including the building and construction materials sector. Without the necessary building and construction materials being available and delivered timeously, and at an appropriate price and quality, these infrastructure delivery programmes could well falter. Against the need for a healthy building and construction materials sector, Kentile Roofing was formed. Economic Cooperation According to SADC regional standardisation president Dr Eve Gadzikwa, industrialisation is the most effective driver of structural poverty reduction, owing to its capacity to expand employment opportunities, boost productivity and increase wages. She stresses that industrialisation can contribute to transformation in the agriculture, trade and transport sectors, and is key to economic development. “Industrialisation requires a focus on improving competitiveness and ease of doing business, as well as enhancing the quality of products that can compete internationally,” she says, adding that it is crucial to strengthen economic cooperation among SADC countries. Strengthening regional economic cooperation, however, also requires reforming the business environments in SADC member States. Barriers to Entry It is evident that the market power of large firms within the roof tiling industry of South Africa, whether exerted unilaterally or through coordination with each other, harms economic development and low-income groups. Such power means higher prices for goods and services and distorts the development path of economies where it relates to the pricing of important inputs. The recent work of the South African competition authorities has highlighted the extent of such arrangements and the regional and international scope that many take. For example, cartels have operated across southern Africa in cement, concrete products and fertilizer. Barriers to entry, by creating and reinforcing the market power of large firms, tend to lead to higher prices, lower levels of innovation and a less competitive economy. In a country like South Africa where there are significant challenges of unemployment, poverty, and inequality, it is critical to understand the nature and extent of barriers to entry in the economy, in order to ensure that regulatory and policy interventions have a meaningful impact on creating inclusive and shared growth. We are a small player within a small and fast-growing market and we do not want to be part of the cartels of the industry. By offering a unique solution to our customers coupled with service and operational excellence, we expect to break barriers to entry within this industry.
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COMPANY OVERVIEW
Problem worth Solving – Market Needs Kentile Roofing is a newly established Company that was formed to create a Truly African High-Quality Tile Manufacturing Brand aimed at an African market. With a strong focus on the development of Skills and the creation of jobs for Local People, the company seeks to penetrate the South African Stage with bespoke roof tiling solutions distributed through three unique platforms, i.e. E-Commerce, Retail Stores (e.g Hardware Stores), and direct sales from the manufacturing site to large entities like construction companies. Our market opportunity has been evaluated on these 10 key points: 1. Growing Urbanization of cities like Durban in South Africa can only grow the housing backlog of the local government. As early as in 2012, the city of Durban had a housing backlog of over 410 000 units6. While the private housing market in South Africa has generally catered for the upmarket segment, new policies have had a positive effect on the democratization of access to secure housing across the country. These include offering low-income families access to mortgages. 2. There is an increase in infrastructural development spending by the government of South Africa. Govt budgets R987bn for infrastructure spending. National Treasury has budgeted R987.4bn for infrastructure over the next three years, with investments set to be made in energy, transport, and telecommunications7. This is according to Treasury’s medium-term budget, which outlined how the government plans to prioritise infrastructure investment to ease bottlenecks and boost growth. In many types of infrastructure, primary construction materials like roof tiling are needed and the impetus is that an increase in spending is a positive indicator for the success of our company. 3. RDP Housing will continue for the foreseeable future. Ever since the RDP Housing program was started in 1994, it has continued to enjoy success as a key government socioeconomic initiative to undo the effects of apartheid. As long as RDP Houses are being built, the need for the products produced by Kentile Roofing will continue to be present. How we price ourselves and serve the market will, however, remain the key to this market. 4. B-BBEE procurement policies have shifted the way business is done in South Africa. Although completely voluntary, companies now prefer to procure services and products from other companies that comply with the relative legislation. Kentile Roofing which is at B-BBEE level 1, has positioned itself as a viable alternative and partner of first choice for construction companies in the KZN region. 5. B-BBEE Levels of our competitors show that the industry is not yet fully transformed. By analyzing a few of our competitors, we find that they are B-BBEE level 3-6 contributors and this shows how the industry is not yet transformed. 6. Recent reports in the media show that major players in the industry are consolidating to save costs and streamline operations and efficiency. However, we as Kentile Roofing see consolidation as being two faced in that although it reduces costs for both players, it tends to lean towards building industry monopolies. Industry Consolidation will leave a few key players to control the market and hence increase monopolization in all aspects. 7. Legislation meant to support the construction industry in South Africa shows an increase in standards of building materials used on buildings. Accreditation of building material through SABS can only mean that quality will consistently be a need in the market; a need we can fulfill. 8. We have industry contacts and Industry Experience that uniquely qualifies us to run this business. We will not sit down and watch numerous opportunities along our value chain disappearing before us.
6 7
https://www.iol.co.za/dailynews/news/city-housing-backlog-will-take-82-years-to-clear-1312608 http://www.fin24.com/Budget/Budget-and-Economy/govt-budgets-r987bn-for-infrastructure-spending-20161026-2 2016 © All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 18 of 120
Management Team and Shareholding
Details of shareholders
Shareholder A
Shareholder B
Shareholder C
Shareholder D
Name and Surname or Name of Institution
Edwin Pillay
Lebogang Zulu
Sydwell Zulu
Kessa Pillay Family Trust
Shareholding (%)
40.00%
20.00%
10.00%
30.00%
Details of Directors and/or Management Team
Manager A
Manager B
Manager C
Manager D
Manager E
Name and Surname
Sydwell Zulu
Michele Pillay
Edwin Pillay
TBA
TBA
Position
Director
Director
Director
Production Manager
Sales Manager
Monthly basic salary
R20,000
R20,000
R20,000
R30,000
R30,000
Responsibilities
Name and Surname
Position
Responsibilities and job specifications
Manager A
Sydwell Zulu
Director
Sales and Marketing
Manager B
Michele Pillay
Director
Day to Day Financial Management
Manager C
Edwin Pillay
Director
Overall running of the company
Manager D
TBA
Production Manger
Production Management
Manager E
TBA
Sales Manager
Sales and Marketing Management
2016 Š All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 23 of 120
Shareholder E
Management Team Gaps We believe that the only outstanding management team member is the production manager whom we are currently in search of. The machinery we use is semi-automated which should make it easier for the new production manager to use and manage. However, we do realize the importance of experience in production management and that is why we offer a higher salary for such a position.
Organizational Structure
Director(s)
Secretary
Administration
Accounting/Financial staff
Purchasing/Procurement
Procurement staff
Production
Sales & Marketing
Sales staff Marketing & PR staff
Production staff Quality control
Support
Distribution
Distribution staff
Service staff
2016 Š All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 24 of 120
The E-Commerce Industry Growth in Mobile E-Commerce ‘Immense’ Opportunity for Retailers Mobile spend projected to increase by 123% by 2018, according to PayPal and Ipsos. TechCentral/20 February 2017 Online spending in South Africa is expected to reach R53 billion by next year, from R37.1 billion in the past 12 months, according to new research commissioned by PayPal and conducted by Ipsos. It’s the third time the companies have done the annual research, which focuses on cross-border e-commerce. It surveyed online domestic and cross-border shopping habits of more than 28 000 consumers in 32 countries, including South Africa. Online shopping has been slow to take off in South Africa, but in recent years has picked up steam, the researchers found. “The research indicated that 58% of online adults in South Africa shopped online over the past 12 months, amounting to an estimated total spend of R37.1 billion,” the companies said. “The increase in online spending is also forecast to continue, with over half of online adults interviewed (53%) saying they will increase their online spending in the next 12 months.” Respondents cited convenience of shopping online, planning to save more money and change in disposable income as reasons for the expected increase. When it comes to buying products online, the most popular online categories for South African consumers were downloadable digital entertainment and education items (purchased by 53% of online shoppers in the past 12 months), event tickets (47%), and clothing, apparel and footwear (45%). Cross-border online spending is common in South Africa, with 43% of South African online shoppers stating that they shopped online from websites in another country in the past 12 months. The main drivers encouraging South African online shoppers to buy cross-border online were free shipping (60% of online shoppers say this would make them more likely to shop from websites in another country), availability of local currency for payment (58%) and secure ways to pay (56%). An estimated 1.4 million South Africans shopped internationally, spending an estimated R8.8 billion. Cross-border shopping is estimated to grow by 38% in 2017 based on shoppers’ own predictions. Cross-border shoppers from South Africa are making purchases all over the world, with the US being the most popular destination (24% of online shoppers claim to have made a purchase from websites in America in the past 12 months) followed by China (13%) and the UK (12%). The research shows that South African cross-border shoppers who buy from the US did so instead of purchasing from local websites because of access to products that they can’t find here (selected by 71% of those who shop in the US). Other reasons cited for shopping on US websites included discovery of new and interesting products (59%) and the reputation of online stores in the US (59%). The top reason to buy from China was better prices (selected by 88% of those who shopped in China). Mobile E-Commerce With high rates of mobile penetration in South Africa, online shoppers are increasingly opting to make purchases on their mobile devices, resulting in an estimated 65% growth in online spend via mobile devices (smartphone or tablet) between 2015 and 2016, to reach about R9.5 billion, with momentum expected to continue. This provides an immense opportunity for online retailers, as mobile spend is projected to increase by 123% by 2018, PayPal and Ipsos said. In the past 12 months, 43% of cross-border shoppers stated that they shopped cross-border via smartphone, while 21% stated they used a tablet for their cross-border purchases. For cross-border shopping, 72% of online shoppers admitted to abandoning a cross-border purchase. The main reasons for this abandonment included high shipping costs (a reason for 55% of those who abandoned a purchase), uncertainty about duties/taxes/customs fees (33%) and long delivery times (32%). Those who do not shop cross-border cited delivery or shipping costs (48%) as concerns. Customs fees and concerns that they might not receive the item also featured highly.
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2016 Š All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 41 of 120
Key Findings: Effective Measure14 surveyed over 12,000 Internet users in South Africa on their online shopping habits and uncovered the following key insights: 56% of respondents have shopped online. 48% are 25-44 years old. Both men and women shop online. Respondents live in Gauteng, KZN and the W Cape. 50% of respondents have a household income of R20,000+. The respondents are educated, with 58% having a post matric qualification and they are economically active, with over 60% working full-time. 57% are in a relationship or are married, and 20% have children aged 4-10, while 21% have no children. They are joint decision makers with 48% being a joint decision maker and 40% being the main decision maker. 87% accessed the internet yesterday and 26% spend 5+ hours on the Internet on an average day - a significantly higher proportion than those who spend 5+ hours a day on TV, radio or print. 38% are accessing the Internet via a mobile phone and 29% access from a work or personal computer. 59% of online shoppers prefer to do their online shopping on a desktop computer or laptop and 27% prefer to use their mobile phone. 55% are digital natives, being very similar to people who are at ease with computers, cell phones and new technology. 87% are very or quite similar. Email, search, banking, social networking, checking the weather and finding directions are the top six activities that online shoppers partake in online. 56% shop weekly or monthly. Books, tickets for events, travel tickets, hotel reservations and DVDs, videos or music are the top five items they purchased via the Internet. 59% say that an “on delivery” payment option would motivate them to do more online purchases. 58% of respondents prefer to pay on card and 23% would prefer to pay on delivery. Guaranteed returns at 41% is the overriding assurance that would make them feel most comfortable shopping online. They felt most comfortable doing their first online payment with bill payment merchants and least comfortable with automobile merchants. Travel tickets and books were the items most online shoppers purchased last. 45% received their online purchases within 1-2 working days. 74% received their purchase within 5 working days. 58% were very satisfied with the speed of delivery. 49% pay for delivery and 38% did not pay any delivery fee. Of those that paid, 58% paid between R200-299. Saving time, access to product reviews, special offers and price comparisons are the four main reasons online shoppers like to shop online. 72% use price comparison sites. Cheaper or free delivery, a payment method they can trust and an easy return policy are the three most important improvements that would make them shop online even more. Credit cards, bank transfers and debit cards are their preferred method of payment. Purchase discounts are the overriding incentive which would motivate online shoppers to do online shopping with a card. 65% shop online occasionally or only for certain products or services. 60% are happy with the level of online shopping they are doing at the moment.
14 Effective Measure is a leading provider of digital audience, brand and advertising effectiveness measurement and targeting solutions, bringing best practice
online measurement data to premium publishers, agencies, networks, advertisers and researchers. The EM solutions offer brands, media and agencies invested in Oceania, Europe, Southeast Asia, Middle East North Africa and South Africa, a clear insight into their online audience and the ever-growing Internet population. www.effectivemeasure.com.
Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) is a global payments technology company that connects consumers, businesses, financial institutions, and governments in more than 200 countries and territories to fast, secure and reliable electronic payments. We operate one of the world’s most advanced processing networks — VisaNet — that is capable of handling more than 65,000 transaction messages a second, with fraud protection for consumers and assured payment for merchants. Visa is not a bank and does not issue cards, extend credit or set rates and fees for consumers. Visa’s innovations, however, enable its financial institution customers to offer consumers more choices: pay now with debit, pay ahead with prepaid or pay later with credit products. The Interactive Advertising Bureau South Africa, formerly the DMMA, is an independent, voluntary, non-profit association focused on growing and sustaining a vibrant and profitable digital industry within South Africa. The IAB South Africa represents the digital industry across all sectors including the media, the marketing community, government and the public, and also acts as the channel through which international bodies can enter the South African digital market. The IAB South Africa currently represents over 96 local online publishers and over 93 creative, media and digital agencies, between them accounting for more than 16 million local unique browsers and 440 million page impressions. The IAB South Africa strives to provide members with a platform through which they can engage, interact and address digital issues of common interest, thereby stimulating learning and commerce within the South African digital space. SAARF is the name by which the South African Audience Research Foundation is familiarly known (following a name change in July 2012 from the South African Advertising Research Foundation, to correctly reflect what the company does: audience research). SAARF’s main objective is to direct and publish media audience and product/brand research for the benefit of its stake-holders, thereby providing data for target marketing and a common currency for the buying and selling of media space and time. SAARF has thus the responsibility to measure the audiences of all traditional media such as newspapers, magazines, radio, television, and cinema and out of home media. This is done by ensuring that the necessary joint industry research surveys are conducted every year to provide updated audience information for all traditional media (AMPS, RAMS, TAMS and OHMS). 2016 © All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 42 of 120
Competitive Analysis Main Competitors Name Location
Key Strengths
Key Weaknesses
Competitor A Monier Coverland
Competitor B Marley Roofing
Competitor C Kulucrete Roofing
Durban, South Africa
Trurolands, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
Durban, South Africa
Well branded with own retail stores
High level quality designs. Classified as closest practical competitor
Designs can be competitively capitalised on
Lack of local skills development
Competitor D Timber Rooftech
Competitor E Durban Waterproofing
Phoenix Industrial Park, Durban
Durban, South Africa
Relatively cheaper products than most of the market. Good customer support
Strong history and emphasis on timber for roofing
Well-designed website and multiple complementary offerings for the construction industry
Highly expensive and not market related. Very high overheads. Very small customer base.
Expensive materials and only suited for a few segments like Gazebos and any thatched roofing solutions.
Their lack of specializing makes them a jack of all trades and master of none
Kentile Roofing will as part of its continuous market research; employ the following strategies to combat competitive pressures: 1.
Detailed Analysis of our Competitors: Who they are, what they are offering and what their unique selling point (USP) is. This will identify the areas we need to compete in, as well as giving us a platform for differentiating ourselves.
2.
Detailed Analysis of our Customers: Our customer expectations, establishing what matters to our customers and revising our marketing strategy accordingly.
3.
Communicating a Tangible Differentiation Strategy: It's essential to give our customers good reasons to use our products/services rather than a rivals’ products/services. Our USP (Unique Selling Proposition) will tap into what customers want and it will be clear and obvious; no-one should have to ask what makes you different.
4.
We will Step up our Marketing: We will make every effort to tell people who we are, what we sell and why they should buy from us.
5.
We will Continuously Update our Image: Simple steps such as the design of our business cards, stationery, and our website and email correspondence will reflect our USP.
6.
We will look after our Existing Customers: They will be our competitors’ target market. We will provide better customer service by being more responsive to their needs and expectations. If feasible, we will consider offering low-cost extras such as improved credit terms, discounts or loyalty schemes. We understand that it's cheaper and easier to keep customers than to find new ones.
7.
We will Target New Markets: Selling into a greater number of markets can increase our customer base and spread our risk.
8.
We will have a Long-Term Outlook: Businesses that plan for growth are more successful than those that are happy to follow the status quo. We will keep up with developments in our sector, follow consumer and industry trends, invest in new technology and - crucially - have a clear idea of where we want to be in one, three and five years' time.
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Marketing Initiatives (Programmes) All “first prospective customer contacts” will be loaded onto Kentile Roofing’s CRM software platform. An Elevator Pitch Script, professional introduction and/or welcome script will be crafted for all scenarios where new business contacts may occur. This systematic information gathering will focus on obtaining five (5) key pieces of data – first name, email address, contact number, enquiry details and outcome. The capturing of such information will state where such contacts originate from and who they are. All staff will be trained on and provided with these scripts for use at any points of contact to ensure that the core message being conveyed is homogenous, yet allowing for individual tweaking to match individual personalities. Pre- and Post-Purchase Communications will be vital to identify the level of satisfaction of customers to ensure that referrals are obtained from highly satisfied clients. Crucial to this will be the capturing of pertinent information such as level of satisfaction, overall customer experience and customer recommendations. Further strategies to assist in building brand awareness include:
Client testimonial page on the website; Search Engine Optimisation (SEO) and Web Optimisation to ensure high search engine listings; Defined Complaint and Resolution Policy as well as on-going staff training to empower them to take corrective measures at time of incidents as well as to define parameters and code of conduct; and Contact details and a personal undertaking by management detailing processes, procedures and promises for the prompt and personal resolution of any dissatisfaction/complaints.
Initial market penetration, branding and exposure will require both direct-response and conventional advertising to achieve rapid market share and develop appropriate barriers to entry. Consistent and methodical tracking of the result of each advertising campaign (through media statistics and the tracking of lead sources) will ensure that such campaigns and choice of media are focussed on the sole objective of ROI maximisation from such activities. Kentile Roofing will research the media industry in the target market area to focus on and endeavour to form relationships with credible and reputable media partners. Media and Communications Companies are always looking for partnerships and most of these can be utilised at minimal or low cost. Kentile Roofing will seek co-branding initiatives that spread advertising costs while increasing brand awareness and expanding the organisational footprint. There are numerous companies within the target market area that are willing to pay to co-brand, provided you have the right deal/or marketing opportunity for them in place. Kentile Roofing will explore new and innovative ways to increase online exposure by advertising on partner websites, search engines, business directories and online newsletters. Kentile Roofing will use several relationships to promote the company. Through participation in Chambers of Commerce and relevant Business Associations, the company will contact key stakeholders across various industries.
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EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENTAL FORCES ANALYSIS
Evaluation Methodology: As an integral qualitative input to this market analysis, and considering the difficulty to quantify certain of the identified market segments uptake potential, the inclusion of a detailed PESTEL Analysis is deemed to be of importance. The purpose of this analysis is to assist in the isolation of the behaviours and habits of institutions in this industry and market, as evaluated from a macro industry perspective. PEST stands for ‘Political, Economic, Social, and Technological’ and describes a framework of macro-environmental factors used in the environmental scanning component of strategic management. Some analysts added Legal and Environmental factors expanded it to PESTEL. It is a part of the external analysis when conducting a strategic analysis or doing market research, and gives an overview of the different macro environmental factors that the company should take into consideration. It is a useful strategic tool for understanding market growth or decline, business position, potential and direction for operations. Political factors are how and to what degree a government intervenes in the economy. Specifically, political factors include areas such as tax policy, labour law, environmental law, trade restrictions, tariffs, and political stability. Political factors may also include goods and services which the government wants to provide or are provided (merit good) and those that the government does not want to be provided (demerit good or merit bad). Furthermore, governments have great influence on the health, education, and infrastructure of a nation. Economic factors include economic growth, interest rates, exchange rates and the inflation rate. These factors have major impacts on how businesses operate and make decisions. For example, interest rates affect a firm's cost of capital and therefore to what extent a business grows and expands. Exchange rates affect the costs of exporting goods and the supply and price of imported goods in an economy Social factors include the cultural aspects and include health consciousness, population growth rate, age distribution, career attitudes and emphasis on safety. Trends in social factors affect the demand for a company's products and how that company operates. For example, an aging population may imply a smaller and less-willing workforce (thus increasing the cost of labor). Furthermore, companies may change various management strategies to adapt to these social trends (such as recruiting older workers). Technological factors include technological aspects such as research and development activity, automation, technology incentives and the rate of technological change. They can determine barriers to entry, minimum efficient production level and influence outsourcing decisions. Furthermore, technological shifts can affect costs, quality, and lead to innovation. Legal factors include discrimination law, consumer law, antitrust law, employment law, and health and safety law. These factors can affect how a company operates, its costs, and the demand for its products. Environmental factors include ecological and environmental aspects such as weather, climate, and climate change, which may especially affect industries such as tourism, farming, and insurance. Furthermore, growing awareness of the potential impacts of climate change is affecting how companies operate and the products they offer, both creating new markets and diminishing or destroying existing ones. The ‘tool’ consists of a library of statements that the prospective entrepreneur (user) must consider. Each statement is linked to a specific category. Prior to awarding a rating to each component, the user must firstly answer the question as to whether he/she agrees or disagrees with the statement. In answering each statement, the ‘tool’ will determine whether the statement is in fact an external environmental force that may impact the business. For example, a statement under the category of ‘Economic’ may read: “The unreliability of electricity provision and periodic, unscheduled load shedding impacts my business”. If the user agrees with the statement, the ‘tool’ will classify the statement as an external (economic) force. Subsequently, each potential external force must be rated by rank of importance. In evaluating the external forces (e.g. technological), the following components are to be considered:
Importance. Importance shows how important each external force is to the prospective entrepreneur in its industry as some might be more important than others. A number from 0.01 (not important) to 1.0 (very important) should be assigned to each force. Probability. Probability of occurrence is showing how likely the external force will have any impact on the business. It should be rated from 1 (low probability) to 3 (high probability). Score. Importance multiplied by probability (Importance x Probability) will give a score by which a prospective entrepreneur can prioritise all the external forces. The highest scores will be earmarked as the external forces of highest priority. Attention should primarily be given to forces that have the highest score.
External forces with the highest priority should be addressed by applying the relevant resources and strategies. 2017 © All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 80 of 120
Rating Key: No/Low Probability of Occurrence
Medium Probability of Occurrence
High Probability of Occurrence
1
2
3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.9
0.4
0.4
0.8
1.2
0.5
0.5
1
1.5
0.6
0.6
1.2
1.8
0.7
0.7
1.4
2.1
0.8
0.8
1.6
2.4
0.9
0.9
1.8
2.7
1
1
2
3
Importance to Business
Probability of Occurrence
High Probability of Occurrence
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Political Analysis Timing of Strategic Action
Category
Statement
High Probability of Occurrence
BBBEE
Medium Probability of Occurrence
Geopolitical Environment
Medium Probability of Occurrence
Government Confidence
Medium Probability of Occurrence
Government Economic Policies
No/Low Probability of Occurrence/Not Applicable
Government Grants
Government grants exist for certain industries to apply for
No/Low Probability of Occurrence/Not Applicable
Government Pressure
Unwarranted pressure from government
Medium Probability of Occurrence
Government Service Delivery
Effective government service delivery is lacking
Medium Probability of Occurrence
Government Trade Policies
Restrictive government trade policies hamper economic growth
Medium Probability of Occurrence
Government's Incentives
Government’s incentives for ‘specific’ industries exist
No/Low Probability of Occurrence/Not Applicable
Lobbyists and Activists
Lobbyists and activist activity are preventing the business from implementing certain strategies
High Probability of Occurrence
Political Instability
The local political environment is very unstable
High Probability of Occurrence
Social Instability
The local economy us plagued by political unrest and social instability
Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (BBBEE) legislation has an impact on our business The geopolitical environment lends itself to further economic uncertainty and challenges The private sector’s confidence in the local government is low which impacts strategic decisions and investments The current government economic policies do not support economic growth
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CHAPTER 3: FINANCIAL MODEL FINANCIAL ASSUMPTIONS AND NOTES
General First Year of Operations
2018
First Month of Accounting
January 2018
First Month of Sales
February 2018
Company Tax %
28.00%
Employee Tax % (PAYE, UIF, etc.)
20.00%
VAT %
14.00%
VAT Payment Method
Bimonthly
Debtors Days Year
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
% Sales 30 Days
50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
% Sales Credit Card
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
Total Sales on Credit
75.0%
75.0%
75.0%
75.0%
75.0%
% Sales on Cash
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
Creditors Days Year Cash Purchases % Number of Days Payable
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
30
30
30
30
30
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FUNDING/FINANCING (INVESTMENT)
Funding/Financing (Investment) Requirement (R) Short term or Long term
Principal amount
Start date
Term in months
Interest %
Monthly payment
Initial payment starts 1 month after receipt?
Property Bond
Long term
8,000,000
Jan 2018
120
9.50%
103,518
Yes
Building Finance
Long term
10,000,000
Jan 2018
120
9.50%
129,398
Yes
Machinery and Equipment
Long term
16,000,000
Jan 2018
120
9.50%
207,036
Yes
Vehicle Finance Working Capital + Inventory
Short term
6,000,000
Jan 2018
60
9.50%
126,011
Yes
Short term
10,000,000
Jan 2018
60
9.50%
210,019
Yes
Funding/Financing Allocation (Use of Funds) Start-Up Costs
Expenses to be Funded
Amount
Marketing and Advertising
200,000
Conveyancing Fees
300,000
Architect / Engineer
300,000
Company Identity
50,000
Subtotal
850,000
VAT %
119,000
Total
969,000
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Investments to be made on fixed assets (Use of Funds) (R)
New fixed assets
DISINVEST Remaining life in years
Original book value
Accumulated depreciation
Salvage value
Depreciation method
Buildings Main building
39
10,000,000
SLN
10
50,000
SLN
5
300,000
SLN
10
300,000
SLN
Jessop Tile Plant
10
14,370,291
SLN
Bobcat
10
500,000
SLN
10
5,848,200
SLN
Office equipment Office equipment
Electronic equipment Workshop Equipment
Furniture & Fixtures Desks, Chairs etc
Machinery
Vehicles Powerstar Trucks
Non-depreciable assets Land
8,000,000
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Date of sale
Sales amount
Beginning Balance Sheet Kentile Roofing (R)
ASSETS
01/01/18
Current assets Cash/Bank
9,781,509
Start-up costs
850,000
Stock/Inventory Short term investments Other Total current assets
10,631,509
Fixed assets Bonds & Securities Buildings
10,000,000
Office equipment
350,000
Furniture & Fixtures
300,000
Machinery
14,870,291
Vehicles
5,848,200
Goodwill Non-depreciable assets
8,000,000
Less: Accumulated depreciation Total fixed assets
39,368,491
TOTAL ASSETS
50,000,000
LIABILITIES AND EQUITY Current liabilities Suppliers' credit Short term loans
16,000,000
Other short term liabilities Total current liabilities
16,000,000
Long term liabilities Long term loans
34,000,000
Other long term debts Total long term liabilities
34,000,000
Shareholders' equity Common stock TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY
50,000,000
2017 Š All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 97 of 120
Job Categories No. of
Start
End
Staff
date
date
Monthly rate
Overtime
Overtime
wkday hrs
wkend hrs
2018 No. staff
Payroll
Overtime
Bonus
Burden
Total
Management Managers
3
20,000.00
3
720,000
144,000
864,000
Sales Manager
2
30,000.00
2
720,000
144,000
864,000
Production Manager
2
30,000.00
2
720,000
144,000
864,000
Office Manager
1
8,000.00
1
96,000
8,000
19,200
123,200
Receptionist
1
5,000.00
1
60,000
5,000
12,000
77,000
General & Administrative
13,000 Sales & Marketing Sales Rep
2
10,000.00
2
240,000
10,000
48,000
298,000
Accounts Clerk
1
7,500.00
1
90,000
7,500
18,000
115,500
17,500 Drivers Truck Drivers
2
12,000.00
2
288,000
24,000
57,600
369,600
Tipper Driver
2
8,000.00
2
192,000
16,000
38,400
246,400
Driver Assistants
2
3,500.00
2
168,000
7,000
33,600
208,600
47,000 Production Dry Stack Area Staff
12
3,500.00
12
504,000
21,000
100,800
625,800
Plant Operators
6
15,000.00
6
1,080,000
45,000
216,000
1,341,000
Dispatch Clerk
2
144,000
6,000
28,800
178,800
2
6,000.00
Workshop Mechanic
2
6,000.00
2
144,000
6,000
28,800
178,800
Machine Assistant
40
5,000.00
40
2,400,000
5,000
480,000
2,885,000
Machine Operator
30
12,000.00
30
4,320,000
12,000
864,000
5,196,000
2017 Š All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 102 of 120
Payroll Expenses | Annual | Year 1-5 Kentile Roofing
(R)
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Total
Management Headcount Payroll
7
7
7
7
7
7
2,160,000
2,289,600
2,426,976
2,572,595
2,726,950
12,176,121
200,000
200,000
200,000
200,000
800,000
Overtime Bonuses Payroll burden Total cost
432,000
457,920
485,395
514,519
545,390
2,435,224
2,592,000
2,947,520
3,112,371
3,287,113
3,472,340
15,411,345
General & Administrative Headcount
2
2
2
2
2
2
156,000
165,360
175,282
185,798
196,946
879,387
Bonuses
13,000
13,000
13,000
13,000
13,000
65,000
Payroll burden
31,200
33,072
35,056
37,160
39,389
175,877
200,200
211,432
223,338
235,958
249,336
1,120,264
Payroll Overtime
Total cost
Sales & Marketing Headcount
3
3
3
3
3
3
330,000
349,800
370,788
393,035
416,617
1,860,241
Bonuses
17,500
17,500
17,500
17,500
17,500
87,500
Payroll burden
66,000
69,960
74,158
78,607
83,323
372,048
413,500
437,260
462,446
489,142
517,441
2,319,789
Payroll Overtime
Total cost
Drivers Headcount Payroll
6
6
6
6
6
6
648,000
686,880
728,093
771,778
818,085
3,652,836
Overtime Bonuses
47,000
47,000
47,000
51,000
53,000
245,000
Payroll burden
129,600
137,376
145,619
154,356
163,617
730,567
Total cost
824,600
871,256
920,711
977,134
1,034,702
4,628,403
92
92
92
92
92
92
8,592,000
9,107,520
9,653,971
10,233,209
10,847,202
48,433,903
Production Headcount Payroll Overtime Bonuses
95,000
95,000
95,000
95,000
95,000
475,000
1,718,400
1,821,504
1,930,794
2,046,642
2,169,440
9,686,781
Total cost
10,405,400
11,024,024
11,679,765
12,374,851
13,111,642
58,595,683
Overall total
14,435,700
15,491,492
16,398,632
17,364,199
18,385,461
Payroll burden
Headcount Payroll
110
110
110
110
110
110
11,886,000
12,599,160
13,355,110
14,156,416
15,005,801
67,002,487
Overtime Bonuses Payroll burden Total personnel cost
172,500
372,500
372,500
376,500
378,500
1,672,500
2,377,200
2,519,832
2,671,022
2,831,283
3,001,160
13,400,497
14,435,700
15,491,492
16,398,632
17,364,199
18,385,461
82,075,484
2017 Š All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 103 of 120
INCOME STATEMENT Income Statement | Summary Kentile Roofing
(R)
2018
%
2019
%
2020
%
2021
%
2022
%
Revenue on operations Total sales
77,787,500
100.0%
95,528,048
100.0%
102,272,328
100.0%
109,492,755
100.0%
117,222,943
100.0%
Cost of goods sold
48,220,047
62.0%
57,112,902
59.8%
60,967,220
59.6%
65,088,429
59.4%
69,488,538
59.3%
Gross profit
29,567,453
38.0%
38,415,146
40.2%
41,305,109
40.4%
44,404,326
40.6%
47,734,405
40.7%
2,680,250
3.4%
3,099,823
3.2%
3,317,890
3.2%
3,551,298
3.2%
3,801,125
3.2%
Personnel
613,700
0.8%
648,692
0.7%
685,784
0.7%
725,101
0.7%
766,777
0.7%
Promotion
300,000
0.4%
309,000
0.3%
318,270
0.3%
327,818
0.3%
337,653
0.3%
Insurance
204,000
0.3%
210,120
0.2%
216,424
0.2%
222,916
0.2%
229,604
0.2%
Transportation
108,000
0.1%
219,420
0.2%
232,585
0.2%
246,540
0.2%
261,333
0.2%
Production
384,000
0.5%
407,040
0.4%
431,462
0.4%
457,350
0.4%
484,791
0.4%
5,139,950
6.6%
4,894,095
5.1%
5,202,415
5.1%
5,531,023
5.1%
5,881,282
5.0%
24,427,503
31.4%
33,521,050
35.1%
36,102,694
35.3%
38,873,303
35.5%
41,853,123
35.7%
Depreciation & Amortization
2,423,259
3.1%
2,423,259
2.5%
2,423,259
2.4%
2,423,259
2.2%
2,423,259
2.1%
Interest
4,546,036
5.8%
4,073,048
4.3%
3,553,117
3.5%
2,981,584
2.7%
2,353,327
2.0%
17,458,207
22.4%
27,024,743
28.3%
30,126,318
29.5%
33,468,459
30.6%
37,076,537
31.6%
4,888,299
6.3%
7,566,927
7.9%
8,435,370
8.2%
9,371,169
8.6%
10,381,430
8.9%
Net business result
12,569,908
16.2%
19,457,816
20.4%
21,690,948
21.2%
24,097,290
22.0%
26,695,107
22.8%
Break-even sales
25,482,366
32.8%
22,298,854
23.3%
21,678,883
21.2%
20,990,495
19.2%
20,222,000
17.3%
EBITDA per share
24,427.50
33,521.05
36,102.69
38,873.30
41,853.12
Earnings per share
12,569.91
19,457.82
21,690.95
24,097.29
26,695.11
Operating expenses General & Administrative
Total operating expenses EBITDA Non operating income (expense)
Net profit / loss Company tax
2017 Š All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 104 of 120
Income Statement | Annual | Year 1-5 Kentile Roofing
(R)
2018
%
2019
%
2020
%
2021
%
2022
%
Revenue on operations Total sales
79,375,000
100.0%
97,477,600
100.0%
104,359,519
100.0%
111,727,301
100.0%
119,615,248
100.0%
Discounts & returns
-1,587,500
-2.0%
-1,949,552
-2.0%
-2,087,190
-2.0%
-2,234,546
-2.0%
-2,392,305
-2.0%
Cost of goods sold
34,398,047
44.2%
42,270,102
44.2%
45,254,372
44.2%
48,449,330
44.2%
51,869,853
44.2%
Labor cost
13,822,000
17.8%
14,842,800
15.5%
15,712,848
15.4%
16,639,099
15.2%
17,618,685
15.0%
Total cost of goods sold
48,220,047
62.0%
57,112,902
59.8%
60,967,220
59.6%
65,088,429
59.4%
69,488,538
59.3%
Gross profit
29,567,453
38.0%
38,415,146
40.2%
41,305,109
40.4%
44,404,326
40.6%
47,734,405
40.7%
Operating expenses General & Administrative Bank interests/charges
18,000
Printing and Stationery
54,000
Website Hosting
12,000
12,840
13,739
14,701
15,730
Computer Expenses
36,000
38,520
41,216
44,102
47,189
Media Subscriptions
24,000
25,680
27,478
29,401
31,459
Maintenance/repairs
30,000
32,100
34,347
36,751
39,324
Office expenses
16,200
17,334
18,547
19,846
21,235
Professional fees
42,000
0.1%
44,940
48,086
51,452
55,053
180,000
0.2%
192,600
0.2%
Staff Training Telephone/fax/mail
19,260 0.1%
57,780
20,608 0.1%
61,825
22,051 0.1%
206,082
0.2%
66,152
23,594 0.1%
220,508
0.2%
70,783
0.1%
235,943
0.2%
60,000
0.1%
64,200
0.1%
68,694
0.1%
73,503
0.1%
78,648
0.1%
Security
144,000
0.2%
154,080
0.2%
164,866
0.2%
176,406
0.2%
188,755
0.2%
Fuel and Oil
600,000
0.8%
642,000
0.7%
686,940
0.7%
735,026
0.7%
786,478
0.7%
12,058,500
15.5%
12,971,660
13.6%
13,727,610
13.4%
14,532,916
13.3%
15,384,301
13.1%
2,377,200
3.1%
2,519,832
2.6%
2,671,022
2.6%
2,831,283
2.6%
3,001,160
2.6%
-13,822,000
-17.8%
-14,842,800
-15.5%
-15,712,848
-15.4%
-16,639,099
-15.2%
-17,618,685
-15.0%
Personnel Salaries and benefits Payroll burden Adjustment labor cost
2017 Š All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 105 of 120
Other Promotion Digital Marketing
180,000
0.2%
185,400
0.2%
190,962
0.2%
196,691
0.2%
202,592
0.2%
Conventional Marketing & PR
120,000
0.2%
123,600
0.1%
127,308
0.1%
131,127
0.1%
135,061
0.1%
42,000
0.1%
43,260
162,000
0.2%
166,860
Insurance Public Liability Business and Merchandise
44,558 0.2%
171,866
45,895 0.2%
177,022
47,271 0.2%
182,332
0.2%
Transportation Travel
36,000
Vehicle costs
72,000
38,160 0.1%
181,260
180,000
0.2%
60,000
40,450 0.2%
192,136
190,800
0.2%
0.1%
63,600
120,000
0.2%
5,139,950
42,877 0.2%
203,664
202,248
0.2%
0.1%
67,416
127,200
0.1%
6.6%
4,894,095
24,427,503
31.4%
2,423,259
Interest on short term loans Interest on long term loans
45,449 0.2%
215,884
0.2%
214,383
0.2%
227,246
0.2%
0.1%
71,461
0.1%
75,749
0.1%
134,832
0.1%
142,922
0.1%
151,497
0.1%
5.1%
5,202,415
5.1%
5,531,023
5.1%
5,881,282
5.0%
33,521,050
35.1%
36,102,694
35.3%
38,873,303
35.5%
41,853,123
35.7%
3.1%
2,423,259
2.5%
2,423,259
2.4%
2,423,259
2.2%
2,423,259
2.1%
1,407,669
1.8%
1,147,175
1.2%
860,828
0.8%
546,061
0.5%
200,054
0.2%
3,138,368
4.0%
2,925,873
3.1%
2,692,289
2.6%
2,435,523
2.2%
2,153,273
1.8%
17,458,207
22.4%
27,024,743
28.3%
30,126,318
29.5%
33,468,459
30.6%
37,076,537
31.6%
4,888,299
6.3%
7,566,927
7.9%
8,435,370
8.2%
9,371,169
8.6%
10,381,430
8.9%
Net business result
12,569,908
16.2%
19,457,816
20.4%
21,690,948
21.2%
24,097,290
22.0%
26,695,107
22.8%
Break-even sales
25,482,366
32.8%
22,298,854
23.3%
21,678,883
21.2%
20,990,495
19.2%
20,222,000
17.3%
EBITDA per share
24,427.50
33,521.05
36,102.69
38,873.30
41,853.12
Earnings per share
12,569.91
19,457.82
21,690.95
24,097.29
26,695.11
Production Research & development Electricity Costs Cleaning Expenses Repairs and Maintenance Total operating expenses EBITDA
24,000
25,440
26,966
28,584
30,299
Non operating income (expense) Depreciation Amortization
Net profit / loss Company tax
2017 Š All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 106 of 120
CASH FLOW STATEMENT Cash Flow | Annual | Year 1-5 Kentile Roofing
(R)
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Total
Beginning balance Credit/Debit
9,781,509
25,617,001
44,004,637
62,195,395
82,170,558
Cash sales
18,256,250
22,419,848
24,002,689
25,697,279
27,511,507
117,887,573
Collections from debtors
55,756,250
72,841,685
77,984,308
83,447,234
89,338,608
379,368,085
10,465,000
13,609,552
14,570,386
15,641,822
16,746,135
71,032,895
84,477,500
108,871,085
116,557,383
124,786,335
133,596,250
568,288,553
7,861,575
9,677,595
10,360,832
11,093,496
11,876,696
50,870,194
Suppliers payments
23,155,275
31,331,636
33,543,647
35,910,707
38,459,945
162,401,209
Other cost of goods
883,047
1,084,438
1,161,000
1,242,966
1,330,720
5,702,171
2,680,250
3,099,823
3,317,890
3,551,298
3,801,125
16,450,386
Personnel
14,435,700
15,491,492
16,398,632
17,364,199
18,385,461
82,075,484
Promotion
300,000
309,000
318,270
327,818
337,653
1,592,741
Insurance
204,000
210,120
216,424
222,916
229,604
1,083,064
Transportation
108,000
219,420
232,585
246,540
261,333
1,067,878
Production
384,000
407,040
431,462
457,350
484,791
2,164,644
4,546,036
4,073,048
3,553,117
2,981,584
2,353,327
17,507,113
Short term loans repayment
2,624,688
2,885,182
3,171,530
3,486,296
3,832,303
16,000,000
Long term loans repayment
2,141,053
2,353,547
2,587,131
2,843,898
3,126,147
13,051,776
4,888,299
7,566,927
8,435,370
9,371,169
30,261,765
8,879,500
13,497,616
14,450,547
15,470,756
16,562,991
68,861,410
Dividends
438,884
955,192
1,056,633
1,175,977
1,303,570
4,930,255
Subtotal
68,642,009
90,483,449
98,366,626
104,811,172
111,716,835
474,020,090
Credit/Debit
25,617,001
44,004,637
62,195,395
82,170,558
104,049,973
Change in cash
15,835,491
18,387,636
18,190,758
19,975,163
21,879,415
Cash in
Non operational income (expense) Sales tax in Sale of common stock Subtotal Cash paid out Cash purchases
Operating expenses General & Administrative
Interest payment Stock issue costs Other payments
Income tax payment Sales tax payments/refunds
Ending balance
2017 Š All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 111 of 120
94,268,463
Cash Flow | Monthly | Year 1-2 30,000,000 25,617,001
25,000,000 22,895,726
22,115,951 20,000,000
19,442,126
18,662,351 15,768,576
15,207,736
15,000,000 12,313,961
11,534,187 10,000,000 8,616,787
7,512,078
7,004,287
5,000,000
0 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Figure 7: Ending Cash (Bank) Balance 2017
2018 (R) Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Beginning balance Credit/Debit
9,781,509
7,512,078
7,004,287
8,616,787
11,534,187
12,313,961
15,207,736
15,768,576
18,662,351
19,442,126
22,115,951
22,895,726
Cash sales
891,250
1,736,500
1,736,500
1,736,500
1,736,500
1,736,500
1,736,500
1,736,500
1,736,500
1,736,500
1,736,500
Collections from debtors
968,750
3,825,000
5,662,500
5,662,500
5,662,500
5,662,500
5,662,500
5,662,500
5,662,500
5,662,500
5,662,500
271,250
799,750
1,057,000
1,057,000
1,057,000
1,057,000
1,057,000
1,057,000
1,057,000
1,057,000
1,057,000
Cash in
Non operational income (expense) Sales tax in
-119,000
Sale of common stock 2017 Š All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 112 of 120
Subtotal
-119,000
2,131,250
6,361,250
8,456,000
8,456,000
8,456,000
8,456,000
8,456,000
8,456,000
8,456,000
8,456,000
8,456,000
1,500
371,450
741,775
749,650
749,650
749,650
749,650
749,650
749,650
749,650
749,650
749,650
Suppliers payments
4,500
1,211,250
2,416,725
2,440,350
2,440,350
2,440,350
2,440,350
2,440,350
2,440,350
2,440,350
2,440,350
Other cost of goods
43,109
83,994
83,994
83,994
83,994
83,994
83,994
83,994
83,994
83,994
83,994
101,350
172,400
240,650
240,650
240,650
240,650
240,650
240,650
240,650
240,650
240,650
240,650
Personnel
1,188,600
1,188,600
1,188,600
1,188,600
1,188,600
1,188,600
1,188,600
1,188,600
1,188,600
1,188,600
1,188,600
1,361,100
Promotion
25,000
25,000
25,000
25,000
25,000
25,000
25,000
25,000
25,000
25,000
25,000
25,000
Insurance
17,000
17,000
17,000
17,000
17,000
17,000
17,000
17,000
17,000
17,000
17,000
17,000
9,000
9,000
9,000
9,000
9,000
9,000
9,000
9,000
9,000
9,000
9,000
9,000
32,000
32,000
32,000
32,000
32,000
32,000
32,000
32,000
32,000
32,000
32,000
32,000
395,833
392,824
389,790
386,733
383,652
380,546
377,415
374,260
371,080
367,874
364,643
361,387
Short term loans repayment
209,363
211,021
212,691
214,375
216,072
217,783
219,507
221,245
222,996
224,761
226,541
228,334
Long term loans repayment
170,785
172,137
173,500
174,873
176,258
177,653
179,060
180,477
181,906
183,346
184,797
186,260
Cash paid out Cash purchases
Operating expenses General & Administrative
Transportation Production Interest payment Stock issue costs Capital investments Vehicles Non-depreciable assets Other payments
Income tax payment Sales tax payments/refunds
423,500
2,114,000
2,114,000
Dividends Subtotal
2,114,000
218,935
2,114,000 219,949
2,150,431
2,639,041
4,748,750
5,538,600
7,676,225
5,562,225
7,895,160
5,562,225
7,676,225
5,782,174
7,676,225
5,734,725
7,512,078
7,004,287
8,616,787
11,534,187
12,313,961
15,207,736
15,768,576
18,662,351
19,442,126
22,115,951
22,895,726
25,617,001
Ending balance Credit/Debit
2017 Š All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 113 of 120
50,000,000 45,000,000
44,004,637 41,219,018
40,324,147
40,000,000 37,410,772
36,515,902
35,000,000
33,357,782
32,706,541 30,000,000
29,772,920
25,000,000
29,548,422
28,653,551
26,463,408
25,748,472
20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Figure 8: Ending Cash (Bank) Balance 2018
2019 (R) Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
25,617,001
26,463,408
29,772,920
25,748,472
28,653,551
29,548,422
32,706,541
33,357,782
36,515,902
37,410,772
40,324,147
41,219,018
Cash sales
1,933,944
1,894,936
1,859,097
1,859,097
1,859,097
1,859,097
1,859,097
1,859,097
1,859,097
1,859,097
1,859,097
1,859,097
Collections from debtors
5,877,113
6,263,938
6,140,183
6,062,273
6,062,273
6,062,273
6,062,273
6,062,273
6,062,273
6,062,273
6,062,273
6,062,273
1,117,092
1,165,311
1,142,532
1,131,624
1,131,624
1,131,624
1,131,624
1,131,624
1,131,624
1,131,624
1,131,624
1,131,624
Beginning balance Credit/Debit Cash in
Non operational income (expense) Sales tax in Sale of common stock 2017 Š All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 114 of 120
Subtotal
8,928,148
9,324,184
9,141,811
9,052,994
9,052,994
9,052,994
9,052,994
9,052,994
9,052,994
9,052,994
9,052,994
9,052,994
832,892
818,616
802,909
802,575
802,575
802,575
802,575
802,575
802,575
802,575
802,575
802,575
Suppliers payments
2,440,350
2,711,768
2,664,768
2,613,640
2,612,639
2,612,639
2,612,639
2,612,639
2,612,639
2,612,639
2,612,639
2,612,639
Other cost of goods
93,544
91,657
89,924
89,924
89,924
89,924
89,924
89,924
89,924
89,924
89,924
89,924
263,560
260,473
257,579
257,579
257,579
257,579
257,579
257,579
257,579
257,579
257,579
257,579
Personnel
1,259,916
1,259,916
1,259,916
1,259,916
1,259,916
1,259,916
1,259,916
1,259,916
1,259,916
1,259,916
1,259,916
1,632,416
Promotion
25,750
25,750
25,750
25,750
25,750
25,750
25,750
25,750
25,750
25,750
25,750
25,750
Insurance
17,510
17,510
17,510
17,510
17,510
17,510
17,510
17,510
17,510
17,510
17,510
17,510
9,540
19,080
19,080
19,080
19,080
19,080
19,080
19,080
19,080
19,080
19,080
19,080
33,920
33,920
33,920
33,920
33,920
33,920
33,920
33,920
33,920
33,920
33,920
33,920
358,105
354,796
351,462
348,101
344,714
341,300
337,858
334,390
330,894
327,370
323,819
320,239
Short term loans repayment
230,142
231,964
233,800
235,651
237,517
239,397
241,292
243,203
245,128
247,068
249,024
250,996
Long term loans repayment
187,735
189,221
190,719
192,229
193,751
195,285
196,831
198,389
199,960
201,543
203,138
204,746
Cash paid out Cash purchases
Operating expenses General & Administrative
Transportation Production Interest payment Stock issue costs Capital investments Vehicles Non-depreciable assets Other payments
Income tax payment Sales tax payments/refunds Dividends Subtotal
4,888,299 2,114,000
2,330,622
214,778
2,263,248
2,263,248
252,039
2,263,248
243,630
2,263,248 244,745
8,081,741
6,014,671
13,166,259
6,147,915
8,158,123
5,894,874
8,401,753
5,894,874
8,158,123
6,139,619
8,158,123
6,267,374
26,463,408
29,772,920
25,748,472
28,653,551
29,548,422
32,706,541
33,357,782
36,515,902
37,410,772
40,324,147
41,219,018
44,004,637
Ending balance Credit/Debit
2017 Š All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 115 of 120
BALANCE SHEET
Balance Sheet | Annual | Year 1-5 Kentile Roofing
(R)
ASSETS
31/12/18
31/12/19
31/12/20
31/12/21
31/12/22
Current assets Cash/Bank Debtors/Accounts receivable Stock/Inventory Total current assets
25,617,001
44,004,637
62,195,395
82,170,558
104,049,973
4,303,500
4,607,327
4,932,604
5,280,846
5,653,674
-57,800
-61,944
-66,385
-71,072
-76,089
29,862,701
48,550,020
67,061,614
87,380,332
109,627,557
Fixed assets Buildings
10,000,000
10,000,000
10,000,000
10,000,000
10,000,000
Office equipment
350,000
350,000
350,000
350,000
350,000
Furniture & Fixtures
300,000
300,000
300,000
300,000
300,000
14,870,291
14,870,291
14,870,291
14,870,291
14,870,291
5,848,200
5,848,200
5,848,200
5,848,200
5,848,200
8,000,000
8,000,000
8,000,000
8,000,000
8,000,000 12,116,297
Machinery Vehicles Goodwill Non-depreciable assets Less: Accumulated depreciation
2,423,259
4,846,519
7,269,778
9,693,037
Total fixed assets
36,945,231
34,521,972
32,098,713
29,675,453
27,252,194
TOTAL ASSETS
66,807,932
83,071,992
99,160,327
117,055,786
136,879,751
Suppliers' credit
2,440,350
2,612,639
2,797,091
2,994,566
3,192,040
Sales tax payable
2,114,000
2,263,248
2,423,034
2,594,100
2,777,243
Income tax payable
4,888,299
7,566,927
8,435,370
9,371,169
10,381,430
13,375,312
10,490,129
7,318,599
3,832,303
22,817,961
22,932,943
20,974,094
18,792,137
16,350,714
Long term loans
31,858,947
29,505,400
26,918,269
24,074,372
20,948,224
Total long term liabilities
31,858,947
29,505,400
26,918,269
24,074,372
20,948,224
Retained earnings
11,941,413
30,426,338
51,032,738
73,925,164
99,285,516
Dividends payable
189,611
207,310
235,225
264,112
295,298
Total shareholders' equity
12,131,024
30,633,648
51,267,963
74,189,277
99,580,814
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY
66,807,932
83,071,992
99,160,327
117,055,786
136,879,751
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
66,807.93
83,071.99
99,160.33
117,055.79
136,879.75
LIABILITIES AND EQUITY Current liabilities
Short term loans Other short term liabilities Total current liabilities Long term liabilities
Shareholders' equity Common stock
Number of shares issued Net asset value per share
2017 © All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 116 of 120
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS (WHAT-IF SCENARIO STUDY) Methodology18
2019 What if Sales
-45.0%
Cost of goods sold
15.0%
Operating expenses General & Administrative
15.0%
Personnel
15.0%
Promotion
15.0%
Insurance
15.0%
Transportation
15.0%
Production
15.0%
A technique used to determine how different values of an independent variable will impact a dependent variable under a given set of assumptions. This technique is used within specific boundaries that will depend on one or more input variables, such as the effect that changes in interest rates will have on a bond's price. What-if Analysis (also known as Sensitivity Analysis) is a way to predict the outcome of a decision if a situation turns out to be different compared to the key prediction(s). Sensitivity analysis is very useful when attempting to determine the impact the actual outcome of a variable will have if it differs from what was previously assumed. By creating a given set of scenarios, the analyst can determine how changes in one variable(s) will impact the target variable. For the purposes of this Business Plan and Financial Projections Model, the ‘Projections Model’ or Expected Case Financial Projections have been used as a point of departure. The Financial Model’s ‘sensitivity’ to changes has been tested to determine the outcome on the company’s profitability. 18
2017 © All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 117 of 120
Projected Income Statement vs. What-If Scenario
(R) Projected
What if
Change
Revenue on operations Total sales
95,528,048
52,540,426
-45.00%
Cost of goods sold
57,112,902
39,293,160
-31.20%
59.8%
74.8%
15.00%
38,415,146
13,247,266
-65.52%
40.2%
25.2%
-15.00%
3,099,823
3,126,148
0.85%
Personnel
648,692
745,996
15.00%
Promotion
309,000
355,350
15.00%
Insurance
210,120
241,638
15.00%
Transportation
219,420
252,333
15.00%
Cost of goods sold % Gross profit Gross profit margin %
Operating expenses General & Administrative
Production
407,040
468,096
15.00%
4,894,095
5,189,560
6.04%
5.1%
9.9%
4.75%
2,423,259
2,423,259
-
Interest on short term loans
1,147,175
1,147,175
-
Interest on long term loans
2,925,873
2,925,873
-
27,024,743
1,561,398
-94.22%
28.3%
3.0%
-25.32%
7,566,927
437,192
-94.22%
19,457,816
1,124,207
-94.22%
20.4%
2.1%
-18.23%
Total operating expenses % of total sales
Non operating income (expense) Depreciation Amortization
Stock issue costs Net profit / loss Net profit margin % Franchise fee Company tax Net business result % of total sales
2017 Š All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 118 of 120
Projected Cash Flow Statement vs. What-If Scenario
(R) Projected Beginning balance
What if
Change
25,617,001
25,617,001
-
Cash sales
22,419,848
12,330,916
-45.00%
Collections from debtors
72,841,685
40,062,927
-45.00%
13,609,552
7,485,254
-45.00%
108,871,085
59,879,097
-45.00%
9,677,595
6,658,098
-31.20%
31,331,636
21,555,882
-31.20%
Other cost of goods
1,084,438
746,084
-31.20%
Operating expenses
19,736,895
20,928,446
6.04%
4,073,048
4,073,048
-
5,238,730
5,238,730
-
Cash in
Non operational income (expense) Sales tax in Sale of common stock Loans Loans Subtotal Cash paid out Cash purchases Suppliers payments Royalties payments
Interest payment Stock issue costs Capital investments Loans repayment Change in other current assets Income tax payment
4,888,299
4,888,299
-
13,497,616
7,423,689
-45.00%
Dividends
955,192
55,188
-94.22%
Subtotal
90,483,448
71,567,463
-20.91%
Ending balance
44,004,637
13,928,635
-68.35%
Change in cash
18,387,636
-11,688,366
-163.57%
Sales tax payments/refunds
2017 Š All Rights Reserved. Business Plan and Financial Model Prepared by Bplans Africa™ Page 119 of 120