1st Quarter, 2011
Global Online Consumer Confidence, Concerns and Spending Intentions A Nielsen Report May 2011
Global recovery, despite its slow pace, is heading in the right direction • Asia Pacific and Middle East/Africa Regions Reach Highest Confidence Levels on Record • North America Rises Two Index Points • Southern and Eastern European Countries Dip to New Lows • Increasing Food Prices Trump the Economy as Biggest Global Concern • Rising Fuel/Utility Prices Impact Spending Intentions
Global online consumer confidence rose two points in the in a recession for at least another year.” Regional differences first quarter of this year to an index of 92 driven by record prevail, with 37 percent of Asia Pacific consumers saying they confidence gains in the Middle East/Africa following social are in a recession today compared with 82 percent of North and political unrest in the region and strong-performing Asia Americans and 68 percent of Europeans. Pacific economies, according to an online study released by The Nielsen Company (NYSE:NLSN). Asia Pacific’s* Consumer Consumer Confidence Index Confidence Index jumped 10 points from last quarter to reach 107 – the highest score on record and Middle East/Africa 5 Regions + Global surged 17 points to a new high of 106. Consumer confidence 110 107 above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of tilize sparelevels cash after What are the top 10 concerns over the next 6 months? essential living expenses 105 106 optimism and pessimism. 102
y – Quarterly Trend – Q1 2011 – GLOBAL AVERAGE
ns
cks/
d
3
Q1-2011 BIGGEST Q3-2010 2nd BIGGEST The Nielsen Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey tracks CONCERN CONCERN
consumer confidence, major concerns and spending intentions among more than 28,000 1) Internet Increasing consumers in 51 countries. 49% 47% 13% March 13% Food Prices In the latest round of the survey, conducted between 23 and April 12, 2011, the number of global online consumers 11% 11% 2) The Economy saying they are in a recession has receded across all regions. “Global recovery, slow pace, is heading in the 33% despite3)its 35% 8% Work/Life Balance right direction,” said Dr. Venkatesh Bala, Chief 9% Economist at The Cambridge Group, a part of The Nielsen Company. “Still, 4) Increasing 8%say they 9%are more than half (55%) of global online consumers Fuel Prices currently in a recession, and of those, 51 percent expect to be 34% 34% 8% 8% 5) Health
100
101
95
93
6) Job 90 Security
BIGGEST 982nd BIGGEST 97 CONCERN 96 CONCERN
89 88
85
7) Increasing Utility Bills 80 79 etc) (electricity, gas,
8%
2010-Q2
9) Childrens’ Education Global Average
and/or Welfare
7%
83
7%
75
70 8) Debt
90
78
10%
6% 5% 2010-Q3 AP 6%
EU 5%
100 97
92
90
90
89 83
85
78
73
2010-Q4
MEAP
2011-Q1
LA
NA
Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Consumer Survey Q1 2011
10) Parents’ Welfare
and Happiness
3%
4%
Among those who say they’re in recession now, how many think they’ll be out of the recession in 12 months?* 31%
32% Global Average
4
Among those who say they’re in recession now, how many think they’ll be out of the recession in 12 months?* Q1-2011
Q4-2010
Q3-2010
Q1-2010
No
51%
51%
48%
48%
28%
29%
26%
26%
Don’t Know
29%
30%
30%
28%
21%
21%
Yes
19%
19%
21%
24%
* % saying in a recession now: Q1 ’11 (55%), Q4’10 (57%), Q3 ’10 (56%), Q1 ’10 (58%)
5
Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey Q1 to 2011 Is now a Consumer good or bad time buy things you want and need?
21%*Due to sampling 21% restrictions caused by the March earthquake/tsunami, Japan was not included in the Q1 survey.
15%
11%
Q1-2011
Q4-2010
Q3-2010
Q1-2010
Bad
18%
17%
17%
16%
Not So Good
46%
48%
44%
46%
14%
11%
Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company.
Good
30%
30%
32%
33%
2
Divergent Economies “It’s been an action-packed start to the year marked by widespread social and political reforms in the Middle East, natural disasters and food inflation in Asia, skyrocketing fuel prices in North America and the searing reality of painful austerity measures in southern Europe,” said Dr. Bala. “In the last 18 months, we have seen a clear divergence in how regions and countries are emerging from the global recession and this trend has become even more pronounced in first quarter for better or worse.”
Top 10 Most Optimistic
Top 10 Most Pessimistic
1. India (131)
1. Portugal (39)
2. Saudi Arabia (118)
2. Hungary (41)
3. Indonesia (116)
3. Greece (45)
4. Australia (110)
4. Romania (46)
5. Philippines (110)
5. Croatia (47)
6. Switzerland (110)
6. South Korea (51)
Seven out of the top ten optimistic countries hailed from Asia Pacific, while European markets dominated nine out of the top ten most pessimistic nations. India remained the most optimistic country in first quarter with a Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of 131 followed by Saudi Arabia and Indonesia.
7. Singapore (109)
7. Italy (57)
8. United Arab Emirates (109)
8. Latvia (57)
9. China (108)
9. Ukraine (60)
10. Hong Kong (107)
10. France (61)
Q1 2011 Nielsen Global Online Consumer Confidence Index 51 Countries — 3-Month Trend
Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey 51 Countries – 3-Month Trend Q1 2011 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index -22
+3
-5
102
98
+29
CANADA
VIETNAM
102
EGYPT
97
NORWAY
-9
+1
-5
83
UNITED STATES
AUSTRIA
-4
+1
IRELAND
60
TURKEY
+2
96
HUNGARY
41
80
CROATIA
51
-1
BRAZIL
0
95
NEW ZEALAND
92
0
GERMANY
94
+12
109
NETHERLANDS
110
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
0
AUSTRALIA -10
110
PHILIPPINES
Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Consumer Survey Q1 2011
Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company.
108
CHINA
TAIWAN
-2
3
+8
+5
91
+9 -4
INDONESIA
UNITED KINGDOM
ESTONIA
95
116
-10
69
CZECH REPUBLIC
-13
SWEDEN
67
-7
75
HONG KONG
-12
91
POLAND
47
-7 SOUTH KOREA
FINLAND
-10
66
+2
ITALY
+1
80
+8
107
ROMANIA
GLOBAL AVERAGE
57
DENMARK
LITHUANIA
46
-14
-3
95
COLOMBIA
-8
92
LATVIA
MEXICO
91
+6
63
45
+2
57
-7
-3 GREECE
from Q4 2010
-1
-6
SAUDI ARABIA
PORTUGAL
SPAIN
+ or - Change
ISRAEL
THAILAND
61
-18
UKRAINE
+4
106
-9
-6
39
-16
83
131
ARGENTINA
61
61
0
88
-4
FRANCE
+11
MALAYSIA
SOUTH AFRICA
+2
97
118
105
88
BELGIUM
INDIA
-2
+4
87
109
0
110
SWITZERLAND
SINGAPORE
Asia Pacific is Most Optimistic Region Thailand surged ahead four points to 106 and Taiwan increased five points to a record high index of 91. “In Thailand, the recovery in consumer confidence was boosted by the government’s recent policy to maintain the diesel price below Baht 30 per liter, strong export growth since the beginning of the year and the rise in the stock exchange index in Q1 2011”, said Aaron Cross, Managing Director, Nielsen Thailand. “According to the Nielsen Retail Index, significant price competition exists between leading fast-moving consumer goods retailers, which is delivering overall better value to consumers on everyday food, beverage and household product categories.”
Confidence in Asia was boosted by continuing high employment, which is energizing consumers to spend again. Sixty-six percent of Asia Pacific online consumers described their job prospects for the next year as good/excellent, up 11 percentage points from last quarter. “The recession is over for 63 percent of Asia Pacific online consumers and they are gearing up for a spending spree. However, lingering concerns over rising food prices may prompt many to seek value in their daily necessities,” said Cheong-Tai Leung, President Nielsen Asia Pacific, Middle East & Africa. Latest Nielsen data reports that nearly half (48%) of Asia Pacific consumers will spend discretionary funds on holidays in the next six months, as well as clothing (44%), entertainment (41%) and new technology (38%).
South Korea, with an index score of 51 is the only outlier in the region, with the sixth lowest consumer confidence score of 51 countries measured. “Since 2010, the consumer inflation rate has been steadily rising due to unusually cold weather and an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease among dairy, beef and pig farms,” said Cindy Eun-Hee Shin, Managing Director, Nielsen South Korea. “Although the unemployment rate has been slightly decreased by job creation in the private sector, overall consumer sentiment has continued to weaken due to the sluggish housing marketing, rising interest rates and high oil prices.”
In China, the world’s second largest economy, confidence rose eight points to an index of 108. “The good news is that income is rising faster than inflation, particularly in rural areas, and living standards continue to improve,” said Karthik Rao, Managing Director, Nielsen Greater China. “As a result, we continue to see strong growth in marketplace demand, even in discretionary categories.” Hong Kong also witnessed an eight point consumer confidence boost to a score of 110. “Optimism is driven by good employment prospects and the close ties Hong Kong enjoys with China,” said Oliver Rust, Managing Director, Nielsen Hong Kong. “The economy also got a boost from tourism, with more than 27 million tourists a year coming to Hong Kong from Mainland China. Declining property values, stock market inflation and rising U.S. interest rates, however, will have an impact on the future outlook.”
The Japan earthquake/tsunami impacted the New Zealand economy, where confidence scores dipped four points to 99. Vietnam also declined by five points to 98 driven by electricity prices, which shot up to over 15 percent along with petrol prices increasing over 18 percent as well.
Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey Asia Pacific Q1-2011Confidence Survey – Quarterly Trend – Q1 2011 – ASIA PACIFIC Global Online Consumer
1
Compared to last year, which actions have you taken in order to save on household expenses?
2
How to utilize spare cash after covering essential living expenses Q1-2011
ACTIONS WILL YOU CONTINUE NEXT YEAR? THIS YEAR
Use My Car Less Often
23%
14%
62%
What are the top 10 concerns over the next 6 months?
63%
BIGGEST CONCERN
Increasing Food Prices 20%
28%
10%
Cut Down on Out-of-Home Entertainment
49%
22%
Cut Down on Take-Away Meals
37%
Cut Down on Smoking Spend Less on New Clothes
Holidays/ Vacations
48%
41%
18%
New Clothes
44%
40%
16%
11%
Out-of-Home Entertainment
41%
39%
54%
23% Pay off Debts/ Cred. Cards/ Loans
28%
27%
Switch to Cheaper Grocery Brands
37%
17%
Cut Down on Telephone Expenses
32%
17%
6)
Increasing Fuel Prices
7%
8%
12%
11%
7)
Job Security
7%
7%
3) The Economy
10%
10%
8)
Childrens’ Education and/or Welfare
6%
5%
4) Health
8%
8%
9)
Global Warming
4%
4%
5) Increasing Utility Bills
7%
10%
10) Parents’ Welfare
3%
6%
Try to Save on Gas and Electricity
44%
30%
Cut Down on Holidays/Short Breaks
32%
11%
Cut Out Annual Vacation
15%
6%
Cut Down/Buy Cheaper Brands of Alcohol
20%
10%
Look for Better Deals on Loans, Credit Cards, etc
(electricity, gas, etc)
New Technology Products
38%
34%
Home Improvement/ Decorating
21%
21%
Investing in Stocks/ Mutual Funds
39%
37%
I Have No Spare Cash
4%
5%
Retirement Fund
14%
14%
33%
13%
Delay Upgrading Technology, e.g. Pc, Mobile, Etc
44%
18%
7%
4%
Don’t Know/ Undecided
4
and Happiness
Among those who say they’re in recession now, how many think they’ll be out of the recession in 12 months?*
No
Q1-2011
Q4-2010
Q3-2010
41%
47%
42%
46%
Q1-2010
Don’t Know
31%
30%
31%
27%
Yes
28%
23%
27%
27%
* % saying in a recession now: Q1 ’11 (37%), Q4’10 (41%), Q3 ’10 (39%), Q1 ’10 (35%)
13%
Delay Replacement of Major Household Items
BIGGEST 2nd BIGGEST CONCERN CONCERN
2nd BIGGEST CONCERN
16%
1)
2) Work/Life Balance
Cut Down on At-home Entertainment
I Have Taken Other Actions Not Listed Above
Putting into Savings
3
Q3-2010
2%
2%
5
Is now a good or bad time to buy things you want and need? Q1-2011
Q4-2010
Q3-2010
Q1-2010
Bad
11%
15%
14%
12%
Not So Good
46%
49%
44%
46%
Good
36%
30%
35%
34%
3%
4%
3%
3%
Excellent
Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Consumer Survey Q1 2011
Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company.
4
Middle East / Africa Reports Biggest Rise in Consumer Confidence countries tracked and United Arab Emirates rose 12 points to a score of 109. Three out of four online respondents in Saudi Arabia rated their job prospects and personal finances in the next 12 months as good/excellent. Job prospects and personal finances in UAE are also strong among 63 percent of Internet consumers. One of the biggest concerns among residents in both countries as well as in the region is political stability.
In the Middle East/North Africa, Egyptians’ overwhelming elation of a new nation led to a 29 point surge to a score of 102 for the country – the highest confidence increase among all markets tracked in first quarter. “The joy of gaining civil and political freedom and experiencing the first truly free voting has raised consumers’ expectations and hopes for faster economic growth,” said Khaled El Tohami, Managing Director, Nielsen Egypt. Egypt’s new-found confidence spread to neighboring Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates countries, which both enjoyed double-digit increases compared to the previous quarter.
South Africa, while increasing four index points from three months ago, reports the lowest consumer confidence in the region with a score of 88. Sixty-one percent of South Africans report job prospects over the next 12 months as not good/ bad and 70 percent do not think it is a good time to buy the things they want and need at the moment.
Saudi Arabia increased 11 points from the previous quarter to an index of 118 – the second highest index recorded of 51
Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey Middle East, Africa, Pakistan Q1-2011
Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey – Quarterly Trend – Q1 2011 – MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA, PAKISTAN*
1
Compared to last year, which actions have you taken in order to save on household expenses?
2
How to utilize spare cash after covering essential living expenses Q1-2011
Q3-2010
Putting into Savings
41%
40%
Holidays/ Vacations
18%
21%
ACTIONS WILL YOU CONTINUE NEXT YEAR? THIS YEAR
Use My Car Less Often
15%
7%
Cut Down on At-home Entertainment
29%
8%
Cut Down on Out-of-Home Entertainment
51%
15%
Cut Down on Take-Away Meals
56%
Cut Down on Smoking
15%
12%
50%
16%
Spend Less on New Clothes
34%
Switch to Cheaper Grocery Brands
35%
16%
Cut Down on Telephone Expenses
48%
27%
Try to Save on Gas and Electricity
39%
30%
Cut Down on Holidays/Short Breaks
32%
9%
Cut Out Annual Vacation
22%
6%
Cut Down/Buy Cheaper Brands of Alcohol
5%
2%
New Clothes
Out-of-Home Entertainment
28%
25%
21%
BIGGEST 2nd BIGGEST CONCERN CONCERN
Political Stability
BIGGEST 2nd BIGGEST CONCERN CONCERN
6) Increasing Utility Bills
18%
13%
2) Increasing Food Prices
10%
11%
7) War
6%
4%
3) Job Security
10%
9%
8) Crime
4%
7%
4) The Economy
6%
11%
9) Work/Life Balance
5%
5%
5) Debt
6%
7%
10) Childrens’ Education
5%
4%
1)
4
(electricity, gas, etc)
and/or Welfare
6%
6%
Among those who say they’re in recession now, how many think they’ll be out of the recession in 12 months?** Q4-2010
Q3-2010
Q1-2010
No
20%
39%
45%
38%
26%
Don’t Know
30%
34%
32%
35%
23%
Yes
50%
27%
23%
27%
26%
21%
New Technology Products
20%
Home Improvement/ Decorating
21%
Investing in Stocks/ Mutual Funds
10%
13%
21%
17%
** % saying in a recession now: Q1 ’11 (65%), Q4’10 (69%), Q3 ’10 (72%), Q1 ’10 (71%)
15%
9%
Delay Replacement of Major Household Items
28%
7%
Retirement Fund
5%
7%
Delay Upgrading Technology, e.g. Pc, Mobile, Etc
38%
14%
I Have Taken Other Actions Not Listed Above
2%
3%
13%
8%
Don’t Know/ Undecided
* Pakistan was not included in Q1 2011 and Q4 2010 due to insufficient sample.
Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Consumer Survey Q1 2011
Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company.
What are the top 10 concerns over the next 6 months?
Q1-2011
Pay off Debts/ Cred. Cards/ Loans
I Have No Spare Cash
Look for Better Deals on Loans, Credit Cards, etc
5
28%
3
5
Is now a good or bad time to buy things you want and need? Q1-2011
Q4-2010
Q3-2010
Q1-2010
Bad
13%
21%
14%
16%
Not So Good
44%
42%
42%
41%
Good
35%
27%
34%
32%
Excellent
5%
7%
6%
8%
Southern & Eastern Europe Dip to New Lows percent – the highest rate since 2004. Furthermore, inflation reached a record high of 2.4 percent in March compared to year ago results for consumer packaged goods and a three percent rise for just food products alone.
Consumer confidence levels in Europe continued to decline in 18 out of 28 countries measured for a regional consumer confidence drop of five points from last quarter to a score of 73. Eleven posted record lows: Portugal (39), Hungary (41), Greece (45), Romania (46), Italy (57), Ukraine (60), Ireland (61), Spain (61), Poland (66), Russia (74) and Norway (97).
In contrast, Germany, Europe’s largest economy, surged ahead 18 points within one year to record its highest consumer confidence level on record at 92 index points, driven by declining unemployment rates and good job prospects. Neighboring Austria also posted its highest consumer confidence reading on record at 97 index points (+1), while Switzerland remained Europe’s most optimistic country at 110 index points (unchanged from previous quarter).
“In Italy, the consumer confidence index declined 14 points from last quarter due to a pessimistic view of job prospects and personal finances,” said Roberto Pedretti, Managing Director, Nielsen Italy. “According to the latest data released by Istat (National Institute of Statistics, Italy), the unemployment rate among young people is now 29.4
Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey Europe Q1-2011
Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey – Quarterly Trend – Q1 2011 – EUROPE
1
Compared to last year, which actions have you taken in order to save on household expenses?
2
How to utilize spare cash after covering essential living expenses
ACTIONS WILL YOU CONTINUE NEXT YEAR? THIS YEAR
Use My Car Less Often
36%
21%
Cut Down on At-home Entertainment
26%
10%
Cut Down on Out-of-Home Entertainment
57%
21%
Putting into Savings
32%
31%
35%
25%
29%
21%
Cut Down on Smoking
17%
13%
Spend Less on New Clothes
Out-of-Home Entertainment
62%
25%
Cut Down on Telephone Expenses
39%
23%
Try to Save on Gas and Electricity
56%
44%
Cut Down on Holidays/Short Breaks
39%
11%
Cut Out Annual Vacation
29%
9%
Cut Down/Buy Cheaper Brands of Alcohol
36%
30%
40%
29%
34%
3 1)
What are the top 10 concerns over the next 6 months?
Increasing Utility Bills (electricity, gas, etc)
2) The Economy
New Clothes
57%
Q3-2010
Holidays/ Vacations
Cut Down on Take-Away Meals
Switch to Cheaper Grocery Brands
Q1-2011
BIGGEST CONCERN
2nd BIGGEST CONCERN
11%
13%
10%
9%
BIGGEST 2nd BIGGEST CONCERN CONCERN
6) Increasing FoodPrices
7%
11%
Increasing Fuel Prices
6%
8%
6%
6%
7)
8) Childrens’ Education
3) Job Security
10%
6%
4) Health
9%
8%
9) Work/Life Balance
6%
5%
5) Debt
8%
5%
10) War
3%
4%
4
and/or Welfare
Among those who say they’re in recession now, how many think they’ll be out of the recession in 12 months?* Q1-2011
Q4-2010
Q3-2010
Q1-2010
No
58%
56%
54%
51%
21%
Don’t Know
29%
30%
29%
27%
27%
Yes
13%
14%
17%
23%
Pay off Debts/ Cred. Cards/ Loans
23%
27%
New Technology Products
18%
Home Improvement/ Decorating
24%
Investing in Stocks/ Mutual Funds
5%
7%
21%
19%
* % saying in a recession now: Q1 ’11 (68%), Q4’10 (69%), Q3 ’10 (70%), Q1 ’10 (79%)
11%
Look for Better Deals on Loans, Credit Cards, etc
17%
12%
I Have No Spare Cash
Delay Replacement of Major Household Items
35%
11%
Retirement Fund
9%
10%
Delay Upgrading Technology, e.g. Pc, Mobile, Etc
37%
13%
I Have Taken Other Actions Not Listed Above
3%
6%
Don’t Know/ Undecided
3%
11%
5
Is now a good or bad time to buy things you want and need? Q1-2011
Q4-2010
Q3-2010
Q1-2010
Bad
25%
21%
21%
20%
Not So Good
46%
48%
45%
47%
Good
24%
27%
29%
29%
2%
2%
2%
2%
Excellent
Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Consumer Survey Q1 2011
Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company.
6
North America Rises Two Index Points North America rose two index points to a consumer confidence score of 85 driven by increases in both the United States and Canada. “In the U.S., an improving labor market drove a two point rise in consumer confidence, but the resulting score of 83 is still precariously close to the recession low of 80 recorded in 2009,” said James Russo, Vice President, Global Consumer Insights at The Nielsen Company. “Concerns over rising fuel prices rose to 18 percent this quarter – up from only four percent three months ago. These results support Nielsen sales trends, which declined 0.5 percent in the first quarter. Spending, however, is moderately increasing especially at the more affluent levels as households earning more than $100K continue to increase shopping trips.” “Planning of shopping trips is very evident as 60 percent of U.S. shoppers are using shopping lists on most trips, 52
percent are comparing unit prices, 47 percent are using store circulars and 41 percent are using coupons,” continued Todd Hale, SVP Consumer & Shopper Insights, Nielsen U.S. In Canada, consumer confidence bounces back to a score of 102 in first quarter to levels reported in the first half of 2010 after a modest decline the second half of last year. “Fueling the increase in confidence are two factors: Canadians are feeling more optimistic about job prospects/personal finances and the strength of the Canadian dollar, which has sheltered consumers from the impact of rising global food prices,” said Carman Allison, Director, Shopper & Industry Insights, Nielsen Canada. “Unemployment levels have remained solid at 7.7 percent and most jobs lost during the peak of the recession in 2009 have been regained. Retail sales (across all sectors) increased five percent after a three percent decline in 2009.”
Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey North America Q1-2011
Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey – Quarterly Trend – Q1 2011 – NORTH AMERICA
1
Compared to last year, which actions have you taken in order to save on household expenses?
2
How to utilize spare cash after covering essential living expenses
ACTIONS WILL YOU CONTINUE NEXT YEAR? THIS YEAR
Use My Car Less Often
49%
27%
Cut Down on At-home Entertainment
26%
13%
Cut Down on Out-of-Home Entertainment
63%
27%
Cut Down on Take-Away Meals
57%
37%
Cut Down on Smoking
12%
10%
Spend Less on New Clothes
60%
29%
Switch to Cheaper Grocery Brands
56%
33%
Cut Down on Telephone Expenses
27%
17%
Try to Save on Gas and Electricity
64%
52%
Cut Down on Holidays/Short Breaks
31%
14%
Cut Out Annual Vacation
31%
11%
Cut Down/Buy Cheaper Brands of Alcohol
13%
7%
Putting into Savings
Q1-2011
Q3-2010
37%
36%
Holidays/ Vacations
20%
20%
New Clothes
16%
17%
Out-of-Home Entertainment
17%
Pay off Debts/ Cred. Cards/ Loans
32%
34%
New Technology Products
11%
12%
Home Improvement/ Decorating
19%
14%
Investing in Stocks/ Mutual Funds
8%
6%
28%
27%
Look for Better Deals on Loans, Credit Cards, etc
19%
14%
I Have No Spare Cash
Delay Replacement of Major Household Items
30%
12%
Retirement Fund
12%
9%
Delay Upgrading Technology, e.g. Pc, Mobile, Etc
32%
12%
I Have Taken Other Actions Not Listed Above
6%
7%
Don’t Know/ Undecided
4%
15%
Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company.
What are the top 10 concerns over the next 6 months? BIGGEST 2nd BIGGEST CONCERN CONCERN
6%
4%
5%
7%
8) Work/Life Balance
4%
5%
11%
9) War
3%
4%
6%
10) Childrens’ Education
3%
4%
19%
18%
2) Increasing Fuel Prices
18%
16%
3) Debt
10%
8%
4) Increasing Food Prices
7%
5) Job Security
7%
1)
The Economy
4
BIGGEST 2nd BIGGEST CONCERN CONCERN
6) Health 7) Increasing Utility Bills
(electricity, gas, etc)
and/or Welfare
Among those who say they’re in recession now, how many think they’ll be out of the recession in 12 months?* Q1-2011
Q4-2010
Q3-2010
Q1-2010
No
59%
54%
51%
48%
Don’t Know
26%
27%
30%
29%
Yes
14%
19%
19%
23%
* % saying in a recession now: Q1 ’11 (82%), Q4’10 (84%), Q3 ’10 (84%), Q1 ’10 (87%)
Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Consumer Survey Q1 2011
7
16%
3
5
Is now a good or bad time to buy things you want and need? Q1-2011
Q4-2010
Q3-2010
Q1-2010
Bad
18%
18%
21%
19%
Not So Good
47%
46%
41%
43%
Good
27%
30%
28%
30%
Excellent
4%
3%
4%
5%
Latin American Confidence Declines, but Sales Trends are Up Latin America declined 10 points to an index of 90, driven largely by Brazil’s 13 point index drop amid rising inflation and interest rates and a new political scenario. “The current results put Brazil back to levels recorded in early 2009 when the world felt the effects of the global crisis more strongly,” said Eduardo Ragasol, General Manager, Nielsen Latin America. “While sales have slowed since the previous period, they are still growing at a rate of 2.3 percent.” Across the region, consumer confidence scores dropped in Colombia, Mexico and Argentina. In Colombia, consumer confidence declined seven points from three months ago to a score of 91, Argentina dipped five points to 88 and Mexico decreased six points to a score of 80. In relative terms, Latin America’s regional consumer confidence score of 90 continues
to outpace both North America and Europe. The decline is largely driven by a negative perception of local job prospects over the next 12 months as well as prices increased for petroleum products, goods and services. Major concerns over crime also increased four percentage points to 15 percent, which is now the number one concern for the region. Retail sales trends across the region, however, continue to grow, but at a slow pace. In Mexico, sales are up 6.8 percent in first quarter. “Consumers are more careful about their purchases, but they continue to buy essential products that are part of their day-to-day,” said Germán Gutiérrez, Country Manager, Nielsen Mexico. “Nonetheless, consumers are very concerned about security, which creates uncertainty and a feeling of unrest to their immediate present and near future.”
Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey Latin America Q1-2011
Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey – Quarterly Trend – Q1 2011 – LATIN AMERICA
1
Compared to last year, which actions have you taken in order to save on household expenses?
2
How to utilize spare cash after covering essential living expenses Q1-2011
Q3-2010
Putting into Savings
35%
39%
Holidays/ Vacations
22%
ACTIONS WILL YOU CONTINUE NEXT YEAR? THIS YEAR
Use My Car Less Often
27%
17%
Cut Down on At-home Entertainment
15%
4%
Cut Down on Out-of-Home Entertainment
57%
15%
Cut Down on Take-Away Meals
53%
27%
New Clothes
28%
36%
Cut Down on Smoking
11%
9%
Out-of-Home Entertainment
31%
36%
Spend Less on New Clothes
48%
18%
Switch to Cheaper Grocery Brands
49%
29%
Cut Down on Telephone Expenses
49%
34%
Try to Save on Gas and Electricity
47%
36%
Cut Down on Holidays/Short Breaks
36%
10%
Cut Out Annual Vacation
25%
6%
Cut Down/Buy Cheaper Brands of Alcohol
23%
13%
26%
3
What are the top 10 concerns over the next 6 months? BIGGEST 2nd BIGGEST CONCERN CONCERN
Crime
BIGGEST 2nd BIGGEST CONCERN CONCERN
6) Childrens’ Education
15%
10%
2) Job Security
13%
9%
7)
3) Work/Life Balance
11%
7%
8) Health
4) Debt
9%
9%
5) Increasing Food Prices
8%
10%
1)
4
and/or Welfare The Economy
9) Increasing Utility Bills
(electricity, gas, etc)
9) Increasing Fuel Prices
8%
9%
8%
8%
7%
10%
4%
7%
3%
4%
Among those who say they’re in recession now, how many think they’ll be out of the recession in 12 months?* Q1-2011
Q4-2010
Q3-2010
Q1-2010
No
41%
50%
43%
46%
28%
Don’t Know
35%
35%
33%
31%
19%
Yes
24%
15%
23%
23%
Pay off Debts/ Cred. Cards/ Loans
33%
36%
New Technology Products
24%
Home Improvement/ Decorating
20%
* % saying in a recession now: Q1 ’11 (48%), Q4’10 (49%), Q3 ’10 (46%), Q1 ’10 (56%)
Investing in Stocks/ Mutual Funds
7%
9%
19%
16%
Look for Better Deals on Loans, Credit Cards, etc
22%
17%
I Have No Spare Cash
Delay Replacement of Major Household Items
32%
8%
Retirement Fund
3%
5%
Delay Upgrading Technology, e.g. Pc, Mobile, Etc
42%
12%
I Have Taken Other Actions Not Listed Above
2%
1%
20%
13%
Don’t Know/ Undecided
5
Is now a good or bad time to buy things you want and need? Q1-2011
Q4-2010
Q3-2010
Q1-2010
Bad
24%
16%
16%
14%
Not So Good
48%
46%
49%
46%
Good
25%
34%
32%
36%
Excellent
2%
4%
3%
3%
Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Consumer Survey Q1 2011
Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company.
8
Increasing Food / Fuel Prices Take a Toll
Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey
Replacing the economy as the number one concern among Global Average Q1-2011 globalConsumer online consumers, the rise Survey in food prices is now what lobal Online Confidence – Quarterly Trend – Q1 2011 – GLOBAL AVERAGE worries consumers most, increasing four percentage points Compared from to last year, actions to utilize spare after lastwhich quarter tohave 13you percent. 2TheHow economy, thecash second taken in order to save on household expenses? covering essential living expenses 3 What are the top 10 concerns over the next 6 months? biggest concern, dropped seven points to 11 percent in first ACTIONS WILL YOU CONTINUE Q1-2011 BIGGEST 2nd BIGGEST Q3-2010 YEAR? THIS YEAR CONCERN CONCERN quarter. Fuel pricesNEXT also increased significantly as a major concern for consumers, escalating sixintopercentage points to Putting 1) Increasing 6) Job Security My Car 49% 47% 13% 13% 32% 19% Food Prices s Often eight percent compared to threeSavings months ago. Rising utility 7) Increasing Utility Bills bills remained a top concern among seven percent of online 11% 11% 2) The Economy Down on At-home (electricity, gas, etc) 10% 26% ertainment respondents. Holidays/
33% 35% Vacations Down on Out-of-Home “Rising fuel55% and food prices 22% are taking a toll on consumers ertainment
around the world as more and more households are spending a Newincome Clothes on these 34% necessities,” 34% 23% limited 44% of their higher proportion said Dr. Bala. “As spare cash continues to dwindle, consumers Down on Smoking 15% 11% on household are taking actions to save Out-of-Homeexpenses by spending 32% 31% Entertainment More than half of less on non-essential items and activities.” nd Less on 24% respondents57% indicate that they will spend less on new clothes, w Clothes out-of-home entertainment andPay gas/electricity. Forty-seven off Debts/ 29% 28% tch to Cheaper Cred. Cards/ Loans 24% 47% percent of consumers plan to switch to cheaper grocery brands cery Brands and 44 percent will cut down on take-away meals. Down on
3) Work/Life Balance
9%
8%
4) Increasing
8%
9%
5) Health
8%
8%
Fuel Prices
Down on e-Away Meals
8) Debt
9) Childrens’ Education
and/or Welfare
10) Parents’ Welfare
and Happiness
BIGGEST 2nd BIGGEST CONCERN CONCERN
8%
7%
7%
10%
6%
5%
6%
5%
3%
4%
4
Among who say they’re in recession how many thinkQ1 they’ll Source: The those Nielsen Company, Global Onlinenow, Consumer Survey 2011be out of the recession in 12 months?* Q1-2011
Q4-2010
Q3-2010
Q1-2010
No
51%
51%
48%
48%
Don’t Know
29%
30%
30%
28%
Home 21% 19% 19% Yes 21% 21% Improvement/ Global Average Q1-2011 Down on 34% 12% – GLOBAL AVERAGE DecoratingSurvey – Quarterly Trend – Q1 *2011 % saying in a recession now: Q1 ’11 (55%), Q4’10 (57%), Q3 ’10 (56%), Q1 ’10 (58%) idays/Short BreaksGlobal Online Consumer Confidence
24%
35%
ephone Expenses
20%
New Technology Products
26%
26%
Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey 38% 51%
to Save on Gas Electricity
1
Out Annual Vacation
2
Compared to last year, which actions have you How to utilize spare cash after taken in order to save on household 23% Stocks/ essential living expenses 8% expenses?Investing incovering
Mutual Funds
ACTIONS WILL YOU CONTINUE NEXT YEAR? THIS YEAR
Down/Buy Cheaper nds of Alcohol Use My Car
19%
Less Often
10%
32%
19%
k for Better Deals Cut Down on At-home 20% Loans, Credit Cards,Entertainment etc
13% 26%
ay Replacement ofCut Down on Out-of-Home Entertainment 33% or Household Items
55% 11%
22%
Cut Down on Take-Away Meals ay Upgrading Technology,
44%
23%
15%
11%
Pc, Mobile, Etc
40%
Cut Down on Smoking
ave Taken Other Spend Less on ions Not Listed Above
11%
15% 6%
10%
Holidays/ Vacations
Retirement Fund New Clothes
Don’t Know/ Out-of-Home Undecided
Entertainment
57%
24%
Switch to Cheaper Grocery Brands
47%
24%
Cut Down on Telephone Expenses
35%
20%
Try to Save on Gas and Electricity
51%
38%
Cut Down on Holidays/Short Breaks
34%
12%
Cut Out Annual Vacation
23%
8%
Cut Down/Buy Cheaper Brands of Alcohol
19%
10%
Look for Better Deals on Loans, Credit Cards, etc
20%
Delay Replacement of Major Household Items
New Clothes
Putting into
Savings I Have No Spare Cash
21%
21%
Q1-2011
Q3-2010
47%
49%
15% 35%
11% 34%
2%
31%
14% 33%
11%
32%
Pay off Debts/ Cred. Cards/ Loans
28%
29%
New Technology Products
26%
26%
Home Improvement/ Decorating
21%
21%
Investing in Stocks/ Mutual Funds
21%
21%
13%
I Have No Spare Cash
15%
14%
33%
11%
Retirement Fund
11%
11%
Delay Upgrading Technology, e.g. Pc, Mobile, Etc
40%
15%
I Have Taken Other Actions Not Listed Above
3%
6%
Don’t Know/ Undecided
2%
11%
Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company.
1)
Increasing Bad Food Prices
2) The Economy
Not So Good
13% 11%
3) Work/Life Balance
9%
4) Increasing
8%
5) Health
8%
FuelGood Prices
4
18% 13%
Q4-2010 6) Job Security 17%
8%
7) Increasing Utility Bills
7%
11%
(electricity, gas, etc)
46%
8%
8) Debt
48%
9) Childrens’ Education
9%
and/or30% Welfare
30%
BIGGEST Q3-2010 2nd BIGGEST CONCERN CONCERN
10) Parents’ Welfare
8%
and Happiness
6% 6% 3%
7% 17%
5%
5%
32%
Among those who say they’re in recession now, how many think they’ll be 3% 3% 3% * Excellent out of the recession in 12 months? Q4-2010
Q3-2010
Q1-2010
No
51%
51%
48%
48%
Don’t Know
29%
30%
30%
28%
Yes
19%
19%
21%
24%
Is now a good or bad time to buy things you want and need? Q1-2011
Q4-2010
Q3-2010
Q1-2010
Bad
18%
17%
17%
16%
Not So Good
46%
48%
44%
46%
Good
30%
30%
32%
33%
3%
3%
3%
3%
Excellent
16% 46% 33%
4%
Q1-2011
5
Q1-2010
10%
44%
* % saying in a recession now: Q1 ’11 (55%), Q4’10 (57%), Q3 ’10 (56%), Q1 ’10 (58%)
Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Consumer Survey Q1 2011
9
now a good or badover time buy things you want and need? WhatIs are the top 10 concerns theto next 6 months? BIGGEST Q1-2011 2nd BIGGEST CONCERN CONCERN
34%
3%
5
3
3%
Country Abbreviations: Argentina Australia Austria Belgium Brazil Canada China Colombia Croatia Czech Republic Denmark Egypt Estonia Finland France Germany Great Britain Greece Hong Kong Hungary
AR AU AT BE BR CA CN CO HR CZ DK EG EE FI FR DE GB GR HK HU
About the Nielsen Global Online Survey The Nielsen Global Online Survey was conducted between March 23 and April 12, 2011 and polled more than 28,000 consumers in 51 countries throughout Asia Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa and North America. The sample has quotas based on age and sex for each country based on their Internet users, and is weighted to be representative of Internet consumers and has a maximum margin of error of ±0.6%. This Nielsen survey is based on the behavior of respondents with online access only. Internet penetration rates vary by country. Nielsen uses a minimum reporting standard of 60 percent Internet penetration or 10M online population for survey inclusion.
India Indonesia Ireland Israel Italy Latvia Lithuania Malaysia Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Philippines Poland Portugal Romania Russia Saudi Arabia Singapore South Africa
IN ID IE IL IT LV LT MY MX NL NZ NO PH PL PT RO RU SA SG ZA
South Korea KO Spain Sweden Switzerland Taiwan Thailand Turkey United Arab Emirates Ukraine United States Vietnam
ES SE CH TW TH TR AE UA US VN
Region Abbreviations: AP EU LA MEA NA
Asia Pacific Europe Latin America Middle East, Africa North America
About the Nielsen Company The Nielsen Company (NYSE: NLSN) is a global information and measurement company with leading market positions in marketing and consumer information, television and other media measurement, online intelligence, mobile measurement, trade shows and related assets. The company has a presence in approximately 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA. For more information on The Nielsen Company, visit www.nielsen.com.
For more information visit www.nielsen.com
Copyright © 2011 The Nielsen Company.
10