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September 21, 2011

The Forrester Waveâ&#x201E;˘: Marketing Mix Modeling, Q3 2011 by Luca S. Paderni for CMO & Marketing Leadership Professionals

Making Leaders Successful Every Day

For CMO & Marketing Leadership Professionals

September 21, 2011

The Forrester Wave™: Marketing Mix Modeling, Q3 2011 MarketShare, Marketing Management Analytics, ThinkVine, And SymphonyIRI Are Leaders by Luca S. Paderni with Mike Glantz and Matthew Dernoga

Exec ut i v e S u mma ry The marketing mix modeling market is undergoing a transformation as marketers increasingly demand that vendors provide solutions that are updated frequently, can easily aggregate data streams, can provide forward-looking recommendations, and can account for the continuous evolution of digital channels, all in a package that is flexible and intuitive to navigate. In Forrester’s 49-criteria evaluation of marketing mix modeling vendors, we found that MarketShare is a Leader thanks to its software functionality, extensive data partnerships, and innovative strategy to integrate with media agencies. Marketing Management Analytics (MMA) is also a strong option with its granular attribution tool and flexible software. ThinkVine excels with its unique consumer-centric, agent-based methodology, and SymphonyIRI Group’s access to shopper and consumer data is unmatched. Marketing Analytics is a Strong Performer thanks to its strong modeling software but lacks access and shareability of models for agencies. Ninah is also a Strong Performer; it has a strong consultative approach but lacks a mature selfservice software platform.

table of Co n te nts 2 Marketing Mix Modeling Has The Power To Bring Order To Chaos 2 Marketing Mix Modeling Vendor Evaluation Overview We Evaluated High-Growth Vendors Serving Large Marketing Organizations The Evaluation Analyzes Three Core Aspects Of Each Vendor’s Offering 5 Evaluated Vendors All Offer Robust Software Tools And Predictive Modeling 7 Vendor Profiles

N OT E S & R E S O URCE S Forrester conducted in-person vendor evaluations of marketing mix vendors Marketing Analytics, Marketing Management Analytics (MMA), MarketShare, Ninah, SymphonyIRI, Group, and ThinkVine in June 2011 and interviewed 12 executives at marketing companies that use marketing mix models.

Related Research Documents “Marketing Mix Modeling Landscape Overview” May 18, 2011

Leaders: Flexible Software And Digital Prowess

“The Splinternet” January 26, 2010

Strong Performers: Powerful Methodologies From Proven Vendors

“Best Practices In Market Mix Modeling” August 25, 2005

9 Supplemental Material

© 2011 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Forrester, Forrester Wave, RoleView, Technographics, TechRankings, and Total Economic Impact are trademarks of Forrester Research, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Reproduction or sharing of this content in any form without prior written permission is strictly prohibited. To purchase reprints of this document, please email clientsupport@ forrester.com. For additional reproduction and usage information, see Forrester’s Citation Policy located at www.forrester.com. Information is based on best available resources. Opinions reflect judgment at the time and are subject to change.

The Forrester Wave™: Marketing Mix Modeling, Q3 2011 For CMO & Marketing Leadership Professionals

Marketing mix modeling has the power to bring order to chaos Since the early ’90s, when MMA first pioneered marketing mix modeling as a way to track the return on investment (ROI) of marketing budgets, the industry has evolved to keep up with the demand for marketing accountability as well as the increasingly fragmenting media landscape. In the age of the Splinternet, marketers can no longer afford to run mix models only for traditional marketing channels.1 The future evolution of marketing mix modeling will be challenging as marketers increasingly demand nuanced models to track where and how their customers interact with a fast-increasing number of marketing touchpoints. Why is this happening now?

· Media consumption is increasingly fragmented. Most consumers are no longer exposed to

marketing messages in a vacuum; they often interact with multiple media simultaneously.2 In this progressively complex environment, marketers need to understand precisely how efficiently their various marketing channel budgets are reaching their customers.

· The marketing accountability bar is rising. Because of the impact of the financial crisis and

the continuous rise of digital marketing, firms are pressuring their marketing organizations to ensure that investments in all marketing channels are more measurable, accountable, and transparent. More than ever, senior marketers have to demonstrate a direct link with business results and positive ROI for their entire marketing budget.

· The data deluge is just beginning. With new digital channels comes an abundance of rich but

complex data sources that marketers need to translate into coherent metrics. In 2009, individual consumers created more data than in the entire history of mankind through 2008.3 Marketing mix modeling vendors need to integrate current and emerging data streams into their mix models and help marketers interpret them to inform actionable business decisions.

Marketing Mix Modeling Vendor Evaluation Overview To assess the state of the marketing mix modeling market and see how the vendors stack up against each other, Forrester evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of six of the top marketing mix modeling vendors.4 In our examination and evaluation, we weighted the criteria toward crucial areas that our senior marketer clients look for in a vendor, namely:

· Mature self-service software. With market dynamics changing fast, marketers cannot rely

on quarterly PowerPoint updates on the effectiveness of their marketing efforts. Marketers need software tools that allow them to run multiple “what-if ” budget scenarios, predict future outcomes from current campaigns, and transparently share mix model insights within their organizations, all in an on-demand environment. Although Forrester believes that vendors need to provide consultative support in tandem with modeling software to help marketers translate model insights into action, this Forrester Wave™ gives an important weight to the hands-on modeling software tools each vendor has to offer.5

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The Forrester Wave™: Marketing Mix Modeling, Q3 2011 For CMO & Marketing Leadership Professionals

· Collaborative tools. To succeed with marketing mix modeling, marketers need clear, organized processes in place both within their organization and with their media agencies to share model insights, potential optimizations, and action plans.6 Modeling vendors that give media agencies and internal client teams access to software tools enable their clients to communicate and share model insights quickly. For example, one marketer explained that all his firm’s media agencies are now required to assess any potential campaigns or proposals using marketing mix modeling software to discern the impact on the client’s key performance indicators (KPIs).

· Organized integration of new data streams. As digital, mobile, and social marketing channels

proliferate, marketers need mix models that seamlessly incorporate and interpret these new data sets. To assist marketers with their data collection needs, modeling vendors have begun to invest in data integration and data management platforms that can manipulate data in various formats, and in some cases electronically aggregate them, with little effort from the marketers themselves.

We Evaluated High-Growth Vendors Serving Large Marketing Organizations To identify the marketing mix modeling vendors that are best suited to help marketers succeed in the current Splinternet age, we screened 50 vendors that range from pure technology vendors to consulting shops. From this group, we selected six vendors — all of which are new to a Forrester evaluation — that best embody the mix modeling services our clients need. Our evaluation included Marketing Analytics, Marketing Management Analytics, MarketShare, Ninah, SymphonyIRI, and ThinkVine because they (see Figure 1):

· Have at least 10 active clients. As this is Forrester’s first evaluation of the marketing mix modeling space, we wanted to focus on vendors that have established client bases of at least 10 marketers.

· Are growing aggressively. Marketing mix modeling is still a market in flux; therefore, we

filtered for vendors that are growing their business and are innovators within the field. Vendors selected for this Forrester Wave all had greater than 20% annual growth in 2010.

· Support large marketing organizations. We looked for marketing mix modeling vendors

dedicated to serving the same customers Forrester serves: companies with more than $1 billion in annual revenues. We did not consider vendors with an enterprise client base of less than 70%.

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The Forrester Wave™: Marketing Mix Modeling, Q3 2011 For CMO & Marketing Leadership Professionals

Figure 1 Evaluated Vendors: Vendor Information And Selection Criteria Vendor

Number of clients

2010 new Enterprise-level business growth clients

Date evaluated

Marketing Analytics

32%

90%

June 2011

Marketing Management Analytics

27%

90%

June 2011

MarketShare

42%

90%

June 2011

>40*

>20%*

80%

June 2011

SymphonyIRI Group

>20%*

100%

June 2011

ThinkVine

44%

73%

June 2011

Ninah

Vendor selection criteria Each evaluated vendor must have at least 10 active clients. Each evaluated vendor must be growing aggressively (greater than 20% annual growth in 2010). Each evaluated vendor must support large marketing organizations (an enterprise client base of more than 70%). *The vendor chose not to publicly disclose these figures but shared them with Forrester confidentially for verification. Source: Forrester Research, Inc.

The Evaluation Analyzes Three Core Aspects Of Each Vendor’s Offering For our first Forrester Wave evaluating the marketing mix modeling market, we leveraged past research, user need assessments, and vendor and expert interviews to develop a comprehensive set of evaluation criteria. In particular, we evaluated vendors against 49 criteria, which we grouped into three high-level buckets:

· Current offering. We evaluated vendors’ capabilities to help marketers translate multiple types of marketing data into actionable insights. This includes their software platforms, their ability to let media agencies leverage models on behalf of their clients, their data infrastructure, their familiarity with digital and social marketing channels, and their methodologies for helping marketers manage various types of objectives.

· Strategy. We assessed how well suited each vendor’s management team, executive vision,

product development road map, and global strategy are to the future needs of marketers as well as how the vendor is using innovation to shape the future of marketing mix modeling.

· Market presence. Lastly, we examined each vendor’s overall size and market position based on its 2010 revenue, employee training, existing partnerships, and customer retention.

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The Forrester Wave™: Marketing Mix Modeling, Q3 2011 For CMO & Marketing Leadership Professionals

Evaluated Vendors All offer robust software tools and predictive modeling The evaluation uncovered a market in which (see Figure 2):

· MarketShare, Marketing Management Analytics, and ThinkVine lead the pack. MarketShare

earns its position as a Leader in our first Forrester Wave evaluation of the marketing mix modeling market for its combination of compelling software tools, exceptional handling of digital data, and a focused strategy to innovate in the marketing mix modeling space. Marketing Management Analytics, with its impressive approach to digital metrics and granular attribution models, and ThinkVine, with its unconventional methodology that trains thousands of “agents” to behave similarly to real people and measures their interactions and engagement with client marketing messages, are also Leaders. A common thread through all three top vendors is their focus on enabling marketers to transparently share and collaborate on models within their organization and with their media agencies. This is a trend Forrester sees as increasingly important in marketing mix modeling as the pace of all marketing quickens and insights will need to be gleaned, communicated, and executed seamlessly.

· SymphonyIRI is a Leader but lacks collaborative functionalities. SymphonyIRI ranks as

a Leader, but its software tools are still confined to internal client users. In some situations, SymphonyIRI does grant agencies access to modeling tools, but this is not yet the norm. SymphonyIRI is aware of the need for agency access for its modeling tools and is focused on improving collaborative functionality in its software. At the same time, SymphonyIRI has very strong data integration and aggregation capabilities and unprecedented access to point-of-sale data from around the globe.

· Marketing Analytics and Ninah are competitive Strong Performers. Marketing Analytics

has Leader-level mix modeling software, but it restricts software access to the client marketing organization, making it more challenging for marketers to communicate models with agencies and actualize model insights. Ninah has a well-organized, thoughtful approach to marketing mix modeling but lacks software products that do not need to be custom-built to specification.

This evaluation of the marketing mix modeling market is intended to be a starting point only. We weighted the scoring based on the direction in which we see the marketplace moving overall and on the features marketers will ask for in the future. However, this is only a single lens through which to view the marketplace and is by no means an absolute ranking of the top vendors in this space. We encourage readers to view the detailed product evaluations and adapt the criteria weightings to fit their individual needs through the Forrester Wave Excel-based vendor comparison tool.

September 21, 2011

The Forrester Wave™: Marketing Mix Modeling, Q3 2011 For CMO & Marketing Leadership Professionals

Figure 2 Forrester Wave™: Marketing Mix Modeling, Q3 ’11 Risky Bets

Contenders

Strong Performers

Leaders MarketShare

Strong

ThinkVine Marketing Management Analytics

Go online to download the Forrester Wave tool

Marketing Analytics SymphonyIRI Group Ninah

for more detailed product evaluations, feature comparisons, and

Nielsen

customizable rankings.

Current offering

Market presence Full vendor participation Incomplete vendor participation

Weak Weak

Strategy

Strong Source: Forrester Research, Inc.

September 21, 2011

The Forrester Wave™: Marketing Mix Modeling, Q3 2011 For CMO & Marketing Leadership Professionals

Forrester’s Weighting

Marketing Analytics

Marketing Management Analytics

MarketShare

Ninah

SymphonyIRI Group

ThinkVine

Figure 2 Forrester Wave™: Marketing Mix Modeling, Q2 ’11 (Cont.)

CURRENT OFFERING General information Services Technology Data Methodology Analysis

50% 10% 10% 20% 20% 20% 20%

3.89 5.00 4.60 4.70 3.14 3.50 3.30

4.36 5.00 4.60 4.20 3.79 4.50 4.50

4.49 5.00 4.80 4.20 4.44 4.40 4.50

3.10 4.00 4.00 1.30 3.59 3.80 2.80

3.92 4.00 4.00 4.40 4.40 3.50 3.30

4.61 5.00 4.40 4.20 4.35 4.80 5.00

STRATEGY Strength of management team Corporate strategy Product strategy Global strategy

50% 15% 30% 30% 25%

3.05 5.00 3.00 3.00 2.00

4.40 5.00 4.00 4.00 5.00

4.75 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.00

3.50 5.00 3.00 2.00 5.00

4.10 5.00 3.00 4.00 5.00

4.13 5.00 5.00 5.00 1.50

MARKET PRESENCE Financial stability Company Partnerships Customers

0% 25% 25% 25% 25%

1.49 0.00 2.50 1.00 2.45

2.86 2.00 4.00 2.00 3.45

4.48 5.00 4.00 5.00 3.90

3.50 4.00 3.00 3.20 3.80

4.13 4.00 5.00 3.80 3.70

2.88 3.00 3.00 2.00 3.50

All scores are based on a scale of 0 (weak) to 5 (strong). Source: Forrester Research, Inc.

vENDOR PROFILES Leaders: Flexible Software And Digital Prowess

· MarketShare. With its robust software tools. MarketShare ranks as a Leader in this Forrester Wave. MarketShare’s Planner and Optimizer tools are accessible to analytically proficient end users and senior brand managers as well as outside media agencies. MarketShare also has excellent data processing and integration capabilities and can integrate client marketing data in multiple formats. MarketShare’s mix models are all built to be “forward-looking first” and pull data in from media agencies and various third-party data partnerships, including a partnership with Google to supply search and YouTube query data. MarketShare also works closely with its clients to understand how models’ results can affect the way they organize their marketing department. With a large global presence, aggressive plans to expand into new markets and new verticals, and a strategy to align closely with media agencies, MarketShare is a great choice for any type of marketer.

September 21, 2011

The Forrester Wave™: Marketing Mix Modeling, Q3 2011 For CMO & Marketing Leadership Professionals

· Marketing Management Analytics. Marketing Management Analytics is also a Leader thanks

to its dynamic software solutions. With Da Vinci, its data integration and processing tool; Market View, an easy-to-use reporting tool; and Avista, a forward-looking modeling tool, MMA helps marketers aggregate data, understand past effectiveness, and project future outcomes. The company has a strong emphasis on collaboration, and media agencies can leverage Avista to uncover optimal campaign allocations. Marketers can also grant limited access to high-level reports and scenarios to brand, sales, or finance teams within the organization. MMA also offers m360, a digital deep dive product, which goes a level deeper into digital media analytics to measure granular attribution. Marketers that are just beginning with marketing mix modeling should look to MMA to help build accurate models that can justify marketing budgets and effect transformational change within organizations.

· ThinkVine. The youngest and smallest vendor in this Forrester Wave, ThinkVine, ranks as

a Leader because of its innovative, agent-based approach to mix modeling and its robust technologies. ThinkVine’s unique methodology uses a system of “agents” that are trained to behave and react to marketing activities as real people. If marketers have custom segmentations, ThinkVine can create new custom rules for the system to reflect those segments. Its software platform is built on Force.com and is available to analytical end users, senior marketers, and media agencies. ThinkVine’s biggest strength is its focus on modeling how a group of consumers actually behaves when exposed to a communication or a promotional or social activity. Additionally, ThinkVine can create mix models with little proprietary marketer data, as its agent-based system can be trained with category data for any country. Marketers looking to expand into emerging markets where data might be difficult to come by can look to ThinkVine to build models that yield quick, actionable insights. However, the company has relatively little experience with global projects and has no international presence.

· SymphonyIRI. SymphonyIRI, with the strongest data offering of all of our evaluated vendors, rounds out the Leaders category. In addition to its strong relationships with digital and social media data providers, SymphonyIRI has a vast global network of partnerships to aggregate shopper and consumer purchasing data from 54 countries. SymphonyIRI has a particularly strong footprint among consumer packaged goods (CPG) and pharmaceutical marketers. SymphonyIRI has software tools for reporting and forecasting (Brand Advantage) and data aggregation and integration (Liquid Data) but needs to work on opening its tools up to nonanalytical users and media agencies.

Strong Performers: Powerful Methodologies From Proven Vendors

· Marketing Analytics. Marketing Analytics, which announced after this Forrester Wave’s review

period that Nielsen was acquiring it, ranks as a Strong Performer in our evaluation. Marketing Analytics has strong analytical rigor and prides itself on being at the forefront of methodological innovations in mix modeling. However, the vendor lags in its adoption of emerging marketing channels, such as digital, mobile, and social. Marketing Analytics’ suite of software tools, though

September 21, 2011

The Forrester Wave™: Marketing Mix Modeling, Q3 2011 For CMO & Marketing Leadership Professionals

robust, is restricted to client end users only, and the vendor has no plans to allow marketers to share any model functionality with their agencies.

· Ninah. Thanks to its strong consultative approach to mix modeling, Ninah ranks as a Strong

Performer in our evaluation. Ninah emphasizes a heavily strategic consultative approach to marketing mix modeling and, for large client engagements, can build custom modeling solutions as needed, but modeling software is not part of Ninah’s standard offering. Through its parent company, Publicis Groupe, Ninah has deep relationships with third-party data providers and the Publicis network of media agencies. Ninah’s deeply consultative approach to modeling is good for marketers looking for a vendor that will adapt to the client organization and take full ownership of the modeling effort. Ninah has a strong global presence and direct access to Publicis’ capabilities and resources.

SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIAL Online Resource The online version of Figure 2 is an Excel-based vendor comparison tool that provides detailed product evaluations and customizable rankings. Data Sources Used In This Forrester Wave Forrester used a combination of three data sources to assess the strengths and weaknesses of each solution:

· In-person briefings and scenario-based demos. Each vendor participated in a three-hour

briefing during which representatives discussed strategy and key differentiators as well as demonstrated technology and processes against three hypothetical client scenarios. We evaluated each product using the same scenarios, creating a level playing field by evaluating every product on the same criteria.

· Vendor surveys. Forrester surveyed vendors on their capabilities as they relate to the evaluation criteria. Once we analyzed the completed vendor surveys, we conducted vendor calls where necessary to gather details of vendor qualifications.

· Customer reference calls. To validate product and vendor qualifications, Forrester also conducted reference calls with two of each vendor’s current customers.

The Forrester Wave Methodology We conduct primary research to develop a list of vendors that meet our criteria to be evaluated in this market. From that initial pool of vendors, we then narrow our final list. We choose these vendors based on: 1) product fit; 2) customer success; and 3) Forrester client demand. We eliminate vendors that have limited customer references and products that don’t fit the scope of our evaluation.

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The Forrester Wave™: Marketing Mix Modeling, Q3 2011 For CMO & Marketing Leadership Professionals

After examining past research, user need assessments, and vendor and expert interviews, we develop the initial evaluation criteria. To evaluate the vendors and their products against our set of criteria, we gather details of product qualifications through a combination of lab evaluations, questionnaires, demos, and/or discussions with client references. We send evaluations to the vendors for their review, and we adjust the evaluations to provide the most accurate view of vendor offerings and strategies. We set default weightings to reflect our analysis of the needs of large user companies — and/or other scenarios as outlined in the Forrester Wave document — and then score the vendors based on a clearly defined scale. These default weightings are intended only as a starting point, and we encourage readers to adapt the weightings to fit their individual needs through the Excel-based tool. The final scores generate the graphical depiction of the market based on current offering, strategy, and market presence. Forrester intends to update vendor evaluations regularly as product capabilities and vendor strategies evolve. Endnotes 1

For more detail on the fragmentation of media and content consumption, see the January 26, 2010, “The Splinternet” report.

Seventy-three percent of US adults say that they multitask with their computer while watching TV. Source: North American Technographics® Entertainment And Media Online Benchmark Recontact Survey, Q2 2010 (US).

Andreas Weigend, “The Social Data Revolution(s),” Harvard Business Review, May 20, 2009 (http://blogs. hbr.org/now-new-next/2009/05/the-social-data-revolution.html).

Forrester reached out to Nielsen, but the vendor declined to participate in this evaluation. Nielsen’s position on the Forrester Wave graphic is estimated based on Forrester’s past research.

Based on our previous research and interviews with marketers, we focused this Forrester Wave on the functionality that marketers demand most from their modeling vendors.

For more detail on Forrester’s ideal marketing mix modeling processes for marketers, see the May 18, 2011, “Marketing Mix Modeling Landscape Overview” report.

September 21, 2011

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