BREAKBULK MIDDLE EAST
Rates to Remain High in 2022 Rising Demand to Put More Pressure on Capacities BY SIMON WEST
The project industry has been contending with sky-high freight rates for almost a year, with little consensus on when they will return to “normal.” Capacities meanwhile have been at a premium, with little room for maneuver. What are the prospects for change? Are there opportunities amid the high-price environment? And what are some of the strategies for navigating the situation? Those were some of the questions panelists tackled during the session: Managing Rates and Capacity: Outlook, Key Drivers and Remaining Competitive at Breakbulk Middle East 2022 in Dubai. Cyril Varghese, head of global logistics at U.S.-based construction firm Fluor, and the panel moderator, kicked off the discussion by reminding delegates that demand for capacity is on the rise, driven by rapid offshore wind development, higher commodity prices that are supporting oil and gas projects, and a new mining super cycle. “We see quite positive trends in terms of the demand for cargo going up, certainly for the next couple of years at least,” Varghese said. A global container shortage is pushing rates, with new build orders from operators unlikely to come online in 2022. And while those rates remain elevated, MPV tonnage is getting pulled into the lucrative container market. As a result, this year is likely to be another challenging one, panelists agreed. “Everybody expects a correction in the container market, and once the correction comes in, and once we see from the order book new containers coming into the market, I think less and less focus will come on the MPVs from the container operators,” said Kyriacos Panayides, CEO
AAL Shipping’s Kyriacos Panayides makes a point in a discussion with moderator Cyril Varghese of Fluor; and, left from Panayides: Amadou Diallo, DHL Global Forwarding; Kristian Lund Knudsen, Maersk; and Martin Harren, Harren & Partner, SAL Heavy Lift.
at AAL Shipping. “But at least for the short term, there will still be demand from the container operators, and we do not see this changing in the short term.” MPVs meanwhile have been hampered by a lack of shipyard capacity, not just for new builds but for repairs to an aging fleet. Martin Harren, CEO of Harren & Partners – SAL Heavy Lift, said new tonnage in the MPV market is not expected for another two years. “Every ship owner has ambitions to do new builds for very good reasons. The first of course is to replace old tonnage. We are the same, and hopefully we can get delivery in 2024,” he said. In the meantime, Harren offered advice for shippers on booking capacity, especially for projects of more than 500 tonnes. “My recommendation would be to book as early as possible. Maybe one year ahead would be sufficient I would say. Anything shorter is a risk.”
ISSUES FOR FORWARDERS?
Kristian Lund Knudsen, global head of special cargo solutions at A.P. Moller – Maersk, dismissed fears that amid the high-price environment, carriers in the future could cut out forwarders and deal directly with shippers. Some see the shift from manual to digital, accelerated by the pandemic, creating an environment
in which shippers bypass forwarders and go directly to carriers. “This is a narrative that has been very popular in the media. It creates a lot of attention and a lot of heat and I think quite frankly it has been blown out of proportion,” he said. “We are not moving towards a world where we do not want to deal with freight forwarders, or where there will be no room for freight forwarders, because I believe there is a very important space for freight forwarders and there is a very important role that they play in the market.” Amadou Diallo, head of DHL Global Forwarding Middle East & Africa, said the cash flow situation for freight forwarders has been very challenging. “We have all tried to find inventive ways of being able to manage our supply invoices and manage the fluctuations we have seen in the market,” such as hedging as a tactic to managing the situation. So how can the industry manage high rates? For Varghese, it is a question of supply chain relationships. “The relationships between stakeholders is not a one-way street. I cannot expect to treat the shipping lines like slaves when the rates are down and when the choices are plenty. It is a relationship that is built over multiple years,” the Fluor executive said. BB www.breakbulk.com
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