Scenario Planning DMGT 783 Spring 2021 by brieisadesigner

Scenario Planning

DMGT 783: Design Futures, Foresights, & Trends | Spring 2021

Brie Nestler | Service Design MFA Chair & Professor Jonathan Denham

INTRODUCTION Learn what scenario planning is and more about Spotify’s past and present before diving into the future

SCENARIO for 2026 Exploring the volatile nature of the music industry as Spotify seeks to set themselves apart from competitors.

SCENARIO for 2031 Main Content

An analysis of the future ways music will join people together virtually, leveraging technical advancements. Areas

SCENARIO for 2036 An analysis of music acting as an educational tool that is linked heavily with emotions is not that far fetched.

CONCLUSION Wrapping up the potential futures that could exist within 5, 10, or 15 years for Spotify and how they can prepare.

114

Press Play

06 SCENARIO PLANNING 08 RESEARCH & ANALYSIS 10 ABOUT SPOTIFY 12 BRAND ATTRIBUTES 14 THE MYTH 16 CHALLENGE QUESTION

d o r n t o i In t o c r t u n d I o r n t o i n I t o c r t u n d I o r n t o i In t c r t u n d I o r n t o i In t c r t u n d I o r n t o i In t c t u n d I o r n t o i n I t c u n d I o r n t o i In t c u n d I o r n t o i In t c u d I o r n t o i In t c u d o r n t o i In t c u d o r t In

Scenario Planning

In 2020 with the COVID-19 pandemic, globally everything was transformed overnight by an event that seemed to appear out of nowhere. However, research and popular media shows potential of a deadly virus sweeping the world for years. Netflix released with VOX a show entitled “The Next Pandemic” in November 2019 and many would say we were overdue for this event. How do companies, small businesses, and organizations even begin to prepare for the plethora of futures that could be out there? Scenario Planning provides a set of tools and methods for large groups to prepare for the unpredictable and unforeseeable events that may be hiding in plain sight like COVID-19. Predictions & accuracy however, are not the purpose of Scenario Planning. The goals is to expand mindsets and create a portfolio of futures to be wary of when navigating the uncertain waters ahead. The future will be here before we know it and we must begin preparing before it is too late…

Research & Analysis

There are many tools utilized during Scenario Planning and over 10 weeks for the SCAD Design Futures, Foresight, and Intuition course in 2021 the following research and analysis were prepared for Spotify.

Following a 5, 10, and 15 year linear trajectory, the below are how the different scenarios are communicated for each timeline. Each scenario was shaped by online research and discussions.

DRIVING FORCES

SIGNIFICANCE & CERTAINTY

What are the Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, and Political (STEEP) drivers that will shape the future?

On a 2×2 matrix, the significance and certainty of each Driving Force is mapped, with attention paid to the upper right quadrant.

CAUSALITY

PLOT DIAGRAM

With the most uncertain and significant Driving Forces prioritized, what effects can be foreseen?

Follow a traditional structure of Setting, Rising Action, Turning Point, Falling Action, and Resolution.

VISUAL RHETORIC

LOGIC DIAGRAM

How can the plot be expressed through pictures that are unrelated to the industry, but convey the story?

On a 2×2 matrix, the most uncertain and significant Driving Forces are mapped for logic to identify futures.

STORY NARRATIVE

BLACK SWAN

What is the full scenario being expressed within a 5 chapter structure with supporting visuals?

What unexpected, but drastically impactful events are potentially on the horizon of the future?

About Spotify Originating in Sweden in 2006 by Daniel Ek, Spotify is a music streaming service. While it only launched in 2008, Spotify has become synonymous with music streaming, similar to Netflix with television and movies in just 12 years. Following a freemium business model, Spotify’s services are available on 21 other devices, more than any other on the market. Available in over 158 different markets globally, somehow Spotify still lags behind its competitors financially and in user rankings. The one differentiator for Spotify is its algorithmic design. Chosen by its users frequently, because of the end of year “Wrapped” playlists and perfectly curated “Daily Mixes”, but there is still so much opportunity to leverage the technology preparing for the future.

158

Million Subscribers

178 Markets

356

Million Active Users

Brand Attributes

Rational AFFORDABLE A brand that offers freemium service plans with different levels for all budgets.

CREATIVE A brand that is driven by passion for driving human creativity through ethical user centered design.

GLOBAL A brand that offers music streaming in and from 80+ countries across the world.

Emotional PERSONAL A brand that knows what music listeners like and makes personalized playlists.

NOSTALGIC A brand that remembers and shows what listeners were playing at different moments of their lives.

CONNECTED A brand that connects listeners with musicians, artists, and friends through the power of listening.

The Myth

Music connects everyone

VIDEO KILLED THE RADIO STAR Spinning off of the original tagline and Spotify motto that they provide music for everyone will not be enough going into the future. Shrouded in unpredictability and disruptions from different driving forces and potential black swan events can set Spotify out of business. Currently, ranked as the 2nd streaming service falling behind Apple, Spotify must address the upcoming challenges.

Challenge Question

How might Spotify ADVANCE & DIFFERENTIATE their freemium service in the rapidly evolving & volatile music industry?

Scenario for 2026 20 DRIVING FORCES 22 SIGNIFICANCE & CERTAINTY 24 CAUSALITY 28 PLOT DIAGRAM 30 VISUAL RHETORIC 32 LOGIC DIAGRAM 34 STORY NARRATIVE 40 IMPLICATIONS & RESPONSES 42 BLACK SWAN

6 2 6 0 2 2 6 0 2 2 0 2 6 2 6 2 20 6 0 2 2 0 2 6 2 6 0 2 2 6 0 2 2 0 2 6 2 6 0 2 2 6 0 2 2 0 2 6 2 6 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 2 6 2 6 2 20 0 2 2 0 2 6 2 6 0 2 2 0 2 0 2 6 2 6 0 2 2 0 2 0 2 6 2 6 0 2 2 0 2 0 2 6 2 6 0 2 2 20 2

Driving Forces SOCIAL

TECHNOLOGICAL

Millennials buying nostalgia - as a

Disruptive technologies will be the standard

generations, millennials tend to buy items and

way of innovating and conducting business,

services that can provide them a sense of

like blockchains and Internet of Things

nostalgia and as the dominant buying power, this dictates much of the products available. Virtual events, concerts, live streams, etc. Since the COVID 19 pandemic, digital interactions still are preferred over in person Gen Z creative engagement, as a generation they tend to create and share these creations with others, which is how social media is used

5G Streaming capabilities will begin to be available globally and companies will invest in this technology for their own benefit Music quality demands, as internet quality increases, so will demand for almost original vinyl like replication of music quality digitally

ENVIRONMENTAL The amount of data stored will grow exponentially, and with it the space required to store it impacting both land usage and increasing greenhouse gas emissions Increased speed in data transfer will need to be supported by a larger consumption of power, accelerating the effects of how it is generated Extreme climate will limit the amount of time spent outside enclosed spaces Improving health, both mental and physical, will need to become a priority, because of food security, increased spread of illnesses, pollution, and extreme weather events

ECONOMIC

POLITICAL

Streaming platforms move from buying rights

to stream and distribute content, to creating

(NFTs) are revolutionizing the way ownership

the content themselves. Artists are being

is viewed legally regarding creative materials

employed by streaming services to produce content that is owned by the specific streaming service

Cause-washing versus actionable impact, people want to ensure companies are not just putting on PR stunts, but truly believe in

Global internet equity and accessibility,

change for the betterment of society (not just

while the internet is available how many

profit centricity)

remote areas will be able to afford this access

Exploitive labor practice for components will

Competitor differentiation and truly setting

continue to grow in demand as users demand

themselves apart as a streaming service from

more devices.

Apple, their biggest competition

Significance & Certainty Competitor Differentiation Disruptive Tech 5G

Virtual Events

Certain

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Power & Electricity Demands

Millennials buying nostalgia KEY SOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMIC POLITICAL

Significant Artist Licensing Fees Internet Access Inequity

Music Quality Demands Gen Z Creative Engagement

Cause-washing Exploitive Labor Practices

Causality

Cause

Effects

ARTIST LICENSING FEES

ECONOMIC

Streaming platforms move from buying rights to stream and distribute content, to creating the content themselves. Artists are being employed by streaming services to produce content that is owned by the specific streaming service

Content will be specific to the streaming service (i.e. Amazon or Apple Music will have exclusive content that platform) leading users to potentially purchasing multiple services for different content.

POLITICAL Artists become further commodified for profit, and as a result value is linked to the number of subscribers and followers they can bring in (like influencer culture)

POLITICAL Artists will be in contract with the specific streaming service and this may lead to creative freedom being limited (i.e. collaborating with artists across platforms)

Causality

Cause

Effects

INTERNET ACCESS INEQUITY

TECHNOLOGICAL

The internet is now a truly global high speed phenomenon in every corner of the world with 5G, even the most remote areas have access like never before. These new users however, are not taken into account and could be neglected as potential markets.

UX Design evolves to incorporate semantic interaction that does not rely on the need to know a language (written and read), so that anyone can use it.

ECONOMIC There is a growth in demand for tech decided due to the new markets that have opened up. As a result the range of devices also opens grows to accommodate different types of users

SOCIAL It becomes harder and harder to group people into target groups due to the globally diverse markets

Plot Diagram

N O I T C GA RISIN ING T T E S

Musicians and artists no longer have contracts with music labels. Instead they compete to become Creators for big music streaming companies like Apple, Amazon, and Google. Spotify continues lagging behind its competitors, but as the beloved cult favorite amongst fans with more underground, indie, and "non-mainstream" global content available.

Apple absorbs both Universal Music Group and Warner in the largest merger of the 2020s. This rocks the industry with Apple owning the exclusive rights for both labels copyright library.

TU RN IN G

Spotify decides to move from being the middle man, buying dying labels to becoming a recruiter of new artists. Rather than seeking the rights to old songs, with the increased internet access they begin seeking Creators across the globe.

PO IN T

N CTIO ING A FALL

While Apple maintains a stronghold on the market of "classic" and the most mainstream popular artists, Spotify gains a new market of global users through their artist recruitment efforts and initiatives.

N LUTIO RESO

Spotify solidifies their spot in the market as being the "different" and more unique of the streaming services available.

Visual Narrative

EAL D A E MAK ERE H N G SI

OK IE CU TT ER TA

OBAL G GL

GOIN

ROAD

LLED RAVE

LESS T

Logic Diagram

Leader of Global Music

Internet Equity

Consistently creating targeted music for specific places.

HARMONIOUS & UNSUSTAINABLE HARMONIOUS & SUSTAINABLE

Spread the Word Globalized music preferences with new devices to stream specific content in specific areas

Producing

Follow the Fool

CHAOTIC & UNSUSTAINABLE CHAOTIC & SUSTAINABLE

Internet Inequity

Undiversified content creation with the same generic sounds

Stuck in the Middle The same boring thing, licensing the same popular artists and doing business as usual

Streaming 33

Scenario Narrative

Old Time Rock N Roll 5 YEAR SCENARIO 2026

1. WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS In the age of social media musicians, artists, and other creatives no longer seek lucrative contracts with traditional music labels. Instead, they compete to become Creators (similar to TikTok) for big music streaming companies like Apple, Amazon, and Google. Spotify continues lagging behind its competitors, but as the beloved cult favorite amongst fans with more underground, indie, and "non-mainstream" global content available. The internet is now a truly global highspeed phenomenon in every corner of the world with 5G. Even the most remote areas have access like never realized before, providing true interconnectivity globally. These new users are often neglected as potential markets. In a newly post pandemic society, more connected than ever, people not only use the internet for consumption, but they also express themselves and want to share their creativity with others.

2. ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST As the music industry has been continually shifting from physical artifacts like albums, merchandise, and in person events, to solely digital content accessibility to electronic music production increases. More artists work and sign on with specific streaming services, Big Tech dominates the market in exclusive content from the biggest and most popular names in the industry.

This exclusivity leads many users to purchase multiple platforms for different content. Apple absorbs both Universal Music Group and Warner in the largest merger of the 2020s. This rocks the industry with Apple owning the exclusive rights for both labels copyright library, meaning they could immediately cease and desist any other streaming service from posting content from beloved artists like Aretha Franklin, Led Zeppelin, and The Doors.

3. INTO THE GREAT WIDE OPEN With only so many labels after the huge merger, Spotify’s innovation team decides the company needs to move from being the middleman by no longer buying the dying labels to instead becoming a recruiter of new artists directly. Rather than seeking the rights to old songs, with the increased internet access they begin seeking Creators across the globe through a global online initiative searching for hidden talents across social media and encouraging them to upload as a Spotify artist and see if they’re the next big thing.

The already famous and big Artists are commodified for profit by their contracts and their value is linked to the number of subscribers, likes, saves, and downloads they receive. Spotify seeks to disrupt that mindset, by fostering a community of unique creatives with its users, subscribers can discover artists before they become famous.

4. GO YOUR OWN WAY While Apple maintains a stronghold on the market of "classic" and the most mainstream of artists, Spotify gains a new market of global users through their artist recruitment efforts. Artists and consumers alike see Spotify as “the good guy” because of its consideration and regard towards the greater populace. They feel connected to their music once again and can relay those feelings to whomever will listen. The streaming service’s “Artists Supporting Artists” or “ASA” initiative launches the careers of numerous aspiring musicians all over the globe. The program pairs industry professionals with budding artists and teaches them the ins and outs of what to expect in today’s ever-evolving digital world of music production. The interconnectedness of social media makes contacting once untouchable or elite celebrities as easy as the click of a button, breaking down barriers.

5. BREAK ON THROUGH TO THE OTHER SIDE Spotify solidifies their spot in the market as being the different and more unique of the streaming services available with their experimental and bold initiatives to find new talent across the globe. While many still choose to have an Apple or another Big Tech streaming service due to the classics they have, most music lovers continue to download and subscribe to Spotify for its varied and eclectic offerings, as well as their support for creativity.

With the unpredictable nature of the future of the entertainment industry, one thing is for certain – music connects everyone because it transcends language, feeling, and movement that unifies us all as human beings seeking an escape.

Implications & Responses

Shift to Content Production

Multiple Streaming Services

Response: Investing in research to identify the music that users like and reverse engineer their algorithms to tell them the music their users desire and making that content.

Response: With customers choosing multiple streaming services, subscription prices must stay lower or equal to competitors to ensure accessibility to a larger base.

Artists Choose Best Contracts

Digital Dominating Market

Response: Identify what attracts artists to services beyond money (artistic freedom, benefits, fan bases, etc.) as Spotify can’t compete with Goliath yet when it comes to sheer spending power for all artists.

Response: Non-Fungible Tokens (NFT) demonstrated that limited edition media does not have to be in a physical form like vinyl, must provide these exclusive digital products.

IN 5 YEARS TIME By the year 2026, based on the current trajectory of the music industry, artists and creators will begin to gain more ownership of their content. This is because of technologies like NFTs and 5G accessibility. Licensing rights, as well as internet inequity are not the only driving forces, but served as the basis for this scenario. What other plausible futures could be explored moving into the next five years?

Black Swan

What if… global warming and climate change reaches a literal boiling point. There is rapid destruction as natural disasters like hurricanes, tsunamis, wildfires, and more lead to massive global power outages. Entire grids go offline during the most extreme temperatures recorded, the coldest of places are even colder, while other areas rise to dangerous heat levels. These extremes and unpredictable, volatile environments lead to global civil unrest.

Black Swan

ENVIRONMENTAL

N CTIO ING A FALL N LUTIO RESO

While Apple shook the music industry, the effects of global warming and climate change begin to severely limit travel internationally as frequent natural disasters wreak havoc globally.

Spotify decides to shift their efforts from music recruitment and investing in sustainability solutions and finding creatives around the world to combat the rapid destruction.

F THE

END O

WORL

TIME

EAL TO H

End of the World

5 YEAR BLACK SWAN SCENARIO 2026

4. WILD WORLD The world’s climate changes rapidly and radically what seems like overnight. The effects of global warming drastically appear daily. The glaciers that were once melting had started to recede completely and disappear, the sea levels had started to rise. Storms had become more violent and frequent then ever before.

Engineers, economists, environmentalists, and all other industries began to search for a viable means of sustaining life and the growth of the human species. As a result, borders drastically shut down and all international travel ceases completely. Extreme temperatures cause global unrest to erupt

5. AGAINST ALL ODDS Spotify decides to shift its focus and budget for its recruitment efforts to creatives around the world aiming for rapid solutions to the natural disasters. They know that throwing money and technology at the problem won't be enough.

It will take creativity and mindsets that have not been discovered. Rather than trying to compete with each other, Apple decides to join forces with Spotify to tackle this global travesty.

IMPLICATIONS & RESPONSES

Damage Control Response: Strive to improve the situation by providing both emotional support through the platform and creates a space for a call to arms on the platform to think of ways to improve the situation Competing Interests Response: While working with other big names like Apple, Spotify will still need to remain protective over their own intellectual property. No Quick Fix Response: The climate was not ruined overnight and will not be fixed overnight, major organizational changes will need to be made to allocate limited resources.

Scenario for 2031

52 DRIVING FORCES 54 SIGNIFICANCE & CERTAINTY 56 CAUSALITY 60 PLOT DIAGRAM 62 VISUAL RHETORIC 64 LOGIC DIAGRAM 66 STORY NARRATIVE 72 IMPLICATIONS & RESPONSES 74 BLACK SWAN

1 3 1 0 3 2 1 0 3 2 0 2 1 3 1 0 3 2 1 0 3 2 0 2 1 3 1 0 3 2 1 0 3 2 0 2 1 3 1 0 3 2 1 0 3 2 0 2 1 3 1 0 3 2 0 3 2 0 2 1 3 1 3 20 0 3 2 0 2 1 3 1 0 3 2 0 2 0 2 1 3 1 0 3 2 0 2 0 2 1 3 1 0 3 2 0 2 2 1 3 1 0 3 2 20 2

Driving Forces SOCIAL

TECHNOLOGICAL

Reduced interaction with people outside the

Advances in technology will lead to the

home, working and socializing in physical-

creation of a new generation of devices that

virtual hybrid spaces, resulting in a redefinition

replace todays cell phones and computers and

of social and cultural norms

with them new methods of interaction.

Post-Millenials (both Gen Z & Alpha) most

Real time connectivity, large data will be

diverse, socially, and politically aware group,

transferred at a speed as never before so that

heavily impacted and influenced toward more

it moves seemingly instantaneously without

sustainable options

loss in quality

Youngest of Gen Z enters early and mid-

Physical and digital realities will merge to form

adulthood, dominating the buying and hiring

a single interconnected space (i.e. Augmented

markets

& Virtual Reality)

Gen Alpha (born post 2012) are introduced to

AI level 5 and have devices that are truly

and very adept with digital devices early

autonomous, design for transparency will be the number one priority

ENVIRONMENTAL Extreme climate will limit the amount of time spent outside enclosed spaces Improving health, both mental and physical, will need to become a priority, because of food security, increased spread of illnesses, pollution, and extreme weather events.

ECONOMIC

POLITICAL

Internet Influencers, micro-content creators,

Definition of human rights will need to be

and underground musicians/celebrities will be

radicalized to go beyond the

the industry leaders

“basics” (healthcare, shelter, water, education

Death of Personas and the rise of bespoke and customizable offerings, individuality and

etc.), to include internet, tech devices, and data

uniqueness as a person will be the focus

All personal identification will be digital,

targeting customers

security of data and its associated rights is

Companies moving from one specific offering,

now a number one priority

to a range of offerings, redefining themselves

Net neutrality and government censorship will

as companies targeting the “why” rather the

evolve to control the internet at an even more

“how” they do things

extreme level redefining what is an “open

Wealth inequity creates a stratified access to

internet”

private, safe internet connections (elites can

Tech companies will be the most influential

afford to avoid slow speeds, increased ads,

stakeholders in the formation of laws and

and corporately selected content)

regulations globally

Significance & Certainty

New Generation of Devices AI Level 5 Autonomy Data Centers

Data Transfer Speeds

Certain

Power Consumption & Generation Gen Z Market Power

Extreme Climate Conditions Health Affected by Climate KEY SOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMIC POLITICAL

Gen Alpha Early Adopters

Significant Music & Social Norms Bespoke & Customizable Offerings

Net Neutrality & Censorship Human Rights

Big Tech Power

Diverse, Politically Active Generation

Influencers & Micro-Content Creation Internet Stratified Inequity Physical-Virtual Hybrid Spaces Diversified Services Digital Identification & Security

Causality

Cause

Effects

SOCIAL

The SARS COVID-19 Pandemic that ended in 2023 (7 years ago) led to a forced development of virtual interaction practices and technologies. These practices didn't stop post pandemic and became standardized in the years to come, leading to reduced interaction with people outside the home, working and socializing in physical-virtual hybrid spaces, thus resulting in a redefinition of social and cultural norms.

Travel is reduced significantly and the travel that does happen is done for leisure rather than for business.

TECHNOLOGICAL With fast growing hybrid technologies that merge physical and digital interaction, Interfaces will evolve to incorporate and trigger physical actions and senses.(create a digital environment that is 4-D & ‘real')

ECONOMIC Customers move from consumers to “prosumers” and help create the database of open source designs and ideas for products or services.

Causality

Cause

Effects

ECONOMIC

TECHNOLOGICAL

With a rising need to be unique & stand out among the crowd, and technologies that allow the production of more small batch manufacturing, there is a rise of bespoke and customizable offerings, individuality and uniqueness as a person will be the focus for companies.

Technologies to rapid build one off products will grow and similarly, modular and DIY design will gain popularity.

ECONOMIC Customers move from consumers to “prosumers” and help create the database of open source designs and ideas for products or services.

ECONOMIC Instead of one offering, companies will provide a library of offerings that the customer can choose from and further modify to fit their unique needs.

Plot Diagram

N O I T C GA RISIN ING T T E S

Even though the pandemic ended 5 years ago, people still stick to work from home practices and as a result the home has become the center of all human interaction.

Big tech dominates the smart home device market allowing customers instant access to their streaming services. Instead of competing.

Everyone works, creates, and spends leisurely time at their own abodes.

Spotify focuses on its core competency as a music streaming service by leveraging the existing home devices and focusing on human connection

TU RN IN G

All smart devices around the house (while being very advanced) are now more or less the same and provide similar features. In this sea of devices that all do the same thing, customers start looking to services that are uniquely designed for them and help express their identity and share with others. Sales begin declining in this market.

PO IN T

N CTIO ING A FALL

People get bored with the devices availability and capability, Spotify launches a new line of collaborative tools for both artists, users, and more specifically family accounts. Spotify focusing on software rather hardware pays off, with their new features available across any device users already own, including Mixed Reality.

N LUTIO RESO

Spotify continues focusing on developing better algorithms and services that help build Experiences with others and music that are specifically designed for its subscribers. Spotify becomes known as the “family” streaming service.

Visual Narrative

OME H T E E E SW M O H

RUE T & TRIED

TT ING BO RE D

TO LI

MADE

JUST

FOR U

Logic Diagram

At Your Door

Mass Production

All services are provided and delivered directly to your home

HARMONIOUS & UNSUSTAINABLE HARMONIOUS & SUSTAINABLE

Marketing Over Quality Over flooded markets with everyone making the same/ similar products

Hybrid Digital Interaction

Made for You

CHAOTIC & UNSUSTAINABLE CHAOTIC & SUSTAINABLE

Bespoke Offerings

Smart devices help place 'You' at the center, and everything is designed, curated and displayed uniquely for you. Every service experience is like ordering from a menu at a restaurant

Stuck in the Middle Death of stores and the rise of maker studios - Think build a bear but for everything

Face to Face Interaction

Wanna Dance With Somebody 10 YEAR SCENARIO NARRATIVE 2031

1. TAKE ME HOME TONIGHT The COVID-19 Pandemic officially was eradicated in the year 2026. But, now 5 years later in 2031 society has become accustomed to being in their own domiciles more than ever before in history. People still stick to work from home practices, both for the sheer comfort of it, as well as a sense of impending doom that another pandemic will be discovered and spread at any moment. As a result the home has essentially become the center of all human interaction. Everyone works, creates, and spends leisurely time at their own abodes making wearables and Smart Home Devices in the majority of people’s lives an essential parts of their daily routines. However, customers are continually seeking the best and most authentic ways to replicate interaction and connection with others who live far away. Because Social Media and video calls are not enough anymore to keep people together.

2. UNDER PRESSURE Big tech dominates the smart home device market as expected, which allows customers instant access to their respective streaming services. Apple, Google, and Amazon create seamless product and service experience designs and they feel confident in their ability to maintain that stronghold.

Faced with a serious business strategy, the Innovation teams pushes that instead of competing, Spotify, the music purist’s favorite underdog focuses on its core competency as a music streaming and Artificial Intelligence service by leveraging existing home devices and focusing on human connection with others through music experiences.

3. I CAN’T GET NO SATISFACTION All smart devices around the house while being very advanced and practically invisible second nature to so many, are now more or less replicas of each other and provide similar features. In this sea of devices that all do the same thing, customers start looking to services that are uniquely designed for them and help express their identity and share it with others. Sales begin declining in this market and increasing in Mixed Reality devices as a form of social escapism. No company has perfected the interaction or fully replicates the social experiences society desired during the pandemic, but it’s a start and gaming with others as an avatar is more interesting than another Zoom call.

4. COME TOGETHER A need grows and grows for a virtual way to truly connect with others, but is still not being met. As people get more and more bored with the device’s availability and capability and anxious for something new, Spotify decides it is the perfect time to launch their new line of collaborative interactions for both artists, users, and more specifically joint accounts. Accounts can now have as many or as little members as the user wants, with every user added after the 10th being an additional charge to these joint accounts.

But it is not just limited to the home, Businesses, Schools, and other organizations can also create accounts for their teams as part of the culture building and creation together. Spotify’s decisions to focus on software and cloudware rather than hardware pays off, with their new features available across any device users already own. Even Mixed Reality, concerts that are livestreamed or already recorded on Spotify can now be viewed in VR with social interaction capabilities for users to watch together.

5. WE ARE FAMILY Establishing these core values of connection across multiple devices, Spotify continues focusing on developing better algorithms and services that help build experiences with others and music. Consistently updating and integrating new features and interactions gradually, Spotify becomes known as the best social music streaming service. In the end, Spotify decides it is now the time to begin venturing into developing their own devices for the future of music and the evolution of how society uses it.

Implications & Responses

Preference for Immersive Reality

Device Permission

Response: Start looking at the concept of listening to music as an experience rather than a background activity and invest in ways to make that experience engage more than just the auditory senses to enhance music.

Response: Strengthen relations with and acquire long lasting contracts with multiple big tech companies from the start so that their presence doesn't disappear.

Personalization

Social Creatures

Response: redouble efforts to develop algorithms that are more intuitive and create personalized listening experiences for users creating a following.

Response: Even with technology, at our core as humans we are innately social beings that crave interaction with others. Spotify can leverage immersive music technology to create social networks and replicate in person interactions digitally.

But also making these algorithms copy proof so that other companies find it hard to replicate their USPs

IN 10 YEARS TIME By the year 2031, immersive reality will become a dominant market power that companies will need to specialize in to differentiate themselves from others. Customizable offerings and music social norms are not the only driving forces, but served as the basis for this scenario. What other plausible futures could be explored moving into the next five years?

Black Swan

What if… the Western economic powers crumble. Capitalism has proven itself to be an unstable and unsustainable economic system that is not infallible. What would happen if the next depression is the worst yet leading to a total collapse, who will rise to power?

Black Swan

N CTIO ING A FALL N LUTIO RESO

Capitalism with its typical boom and bust cycle, collapses after the boom of the creator economy. The US, once the top prosumer market for smart devices, is no longer.

The decision to maintain focus on software still benefits Spotify during the collapse, however they also must adapt their financial strategy outside of Western markets.

BOOM

OR BU

VE URVI ILL S

WE W

Money

10 YEAR BLACK SWAN SCENARIO 2031

4. CHANGES The US economy collapses as the result of a stock market crash followed by a protracted financial crisis. Everyone is focused on day-to-day survival. There's no shopping, no new housing construction, no vacations. The stock market is idle. No one's investing or borrowing.

Because of the global power that the US holds, this impacts other markets and soon another collapse happens in the UK and European markets. The once leading Western powers, fall to shambles.

5. THIS IS THE TIME With digital markets suffering a global slowdown, Spotify has to manage itself through some form of 'hard landing' to reduce their risk while being the only major streaming company that focuses on emerging markets rather than the Western hemisphere.

China is now the biggest market in the world, with over a billion potential customers--more than all other countries combined. Spotify sets their sites on advancing their technology with Start-Ups in China.

IMPLICATIONS & RESPONSES

Cutting Expenses Response: Increasing free-trials or offering temporarily reduced subscription prices, since customers will eliminate any monthly cost that is no deemed necessary.

Rise of Non-US Powers Response: Scandinavian countries that have been forward thinking for years could lead the world into a new era of redefined progress. Being a brainchild of Sweden, Spotify is already in a position of power with its disruptive views

Scenario for 2036

84 DRIVING FORCES 86 SIGNIFICANCE & CERTAINTY 88 CAUSALITY 92 PLOT DIAGRAM 94 VISUAL RHETORIC 96 LOGIC DIAGRAM 98 STORY NARRATIVE 104 IMPLICATIONS & RESPONSES 106 BLACK SWAN

6 3 6 0 3 2 6 0 3 2 0 2 6 3 6 3 20 6 0 3 2 0 2 6 3 6 0 3 2 6 0 3 2 0 2 6 3 6 0 3 2 6 0 3 2 0 2 6 3 6 0 3 2 0 3 2 0 2 6 3 6 3 20 0 3 2 0 2 6 3 6 0 3 2 0 2 0 2 6 3 6 0 3 2 0 2 0 2 6 3 6 0 3 2 0 2 0 2 6 3 6 0 3 2 20 2

Driving Forces SOCIAL

TECHNOLOGICAL

Sharing music is now second nature and a

Sensing Technologies are able to suggest and

way to communicate with others beyond

play media based on your, mood, mental state,

words to express feelings and emotion,

actions and surroundings so that it can predict

technology enhances this interaction

needs and perform actions before any human

Music becomes an integral part of everyday activity and people are plugged into some

Bespoke and personalized offerings from

form of media for almost all the time they are

companies is now the norm and brands that

awake

cater to the widest variety of needs are most

Millennials become the new older generation and finally start showing up in positions of power, and thus, impose their thoughts and ideologies onto the younger generations

intervention.

successful

ENVIRONMENTAL The idea of ownership especially in the context of land, natural resources, and Indigenous sovereignty is completely reevaluated The widespread and legal use of an open source ideology with communal resources being shared (i.e. community gardens, mutual aid, etc.) All companies will be “environmental first” B corps, whatever their offering, those that continue unsustainable practices will go to the corporate graveyard

ECONOMIC

POLITICAL

Money will no longer be the primary reason

Political dynamics have shifted in favor of

for work. Job satisfaction and alignment with

more neoliberal with Millennials and Gen Z

beliefs and goals will be primary drivers

now in positions of power

All transactions will happen through

Globalized political scene with universally

blockchains

standardized laws & regulations so that above

Jobs involving tedious repetitive work will

national there is now a global legislature

completely disappear becoming fully

Borders of nations represent what we used to

automated, but the logistic maintenance of

think of as “states” of a country and states will

machines an essential job

become the new cities, cities becoming the

Complete dependence on a “Creator” or

new suburbs, etc.

“Knowledge” economy and value is determined by social capital

Significance & Certainty

Constantly Plugged In Sensing Tech Predicts Needs

Certain

Sustainable B Corp Standards

Millennials & Global Power Faster Travel & Physical Connectivity KEY

Neoliberal Powers

SOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMIC POLITICAL

Full Automation

Music & Emotion Creator/Knowledge Economy

Catering to Pre-Needs

Global Politics

Land Rights & Ownership

Border Evolution Non-Financial Motivations Communal Ideologies Physical Money Gone

Causality

Cause

Effects

SOCIAL

TECHNOLOGICAL

Music has always been a way of externalizing how you feel inside. But now with ways to share music (streaming & OTA transferring) in an instant, it has become the easiest way to share your feelings with others too.

Advancements in technology will allow you to feel the music with more than just one of your senses to make it more immersive. Listening to music is not just entertainment but an experience of emotion that can be replicated and shared with others

TECHNOLOGICAL Similarly, tech is used to enhance the feeling by triggering responses in your brain and body. (Ex. when listening to high intensity music, adrenaline in the body is increased using tech, so you feel that jumpiness within you)

ECONOMIC Music becomes a way of teaching children about emotion using this advanced technology to trigger responses.

Causality

Cause

Effects

ECONOMIC

SOCIAL

With machines being smart enough to take over repetitive work, human involvement is only required in the spaces of creative thinking

Education will evolve to shift focus on creative problem solving skills and artistic expression rather than learning to do tasks that can be performed by a computer.

ECONOMIC The number of human employees will reduce but population will not and as a result, “work” as we currently understand it will no longer be the primary source of income. Reproduction vs creation.

POLITICAL Worker’s rights and intellectual property will be radicalized by NFTs shifting ownership from big labels and companies to individual creators connecting directly with their audience

Plot Diagram

N O I T C GA RISIN ING T T E S

Music streaming companies are now transitioning to become communication companies with music as a language that tells others how you're feeling. Technology allows you to feel the music with more than just one of your senses to make it more immersive.

TU RN IN G

Listening to music in not just entertainment but an experience of emotion that can be replicated and shared with others. As a result, music becomes a way of teaching children about emotion using this advanced technology to trigger responses.

PO IN T

N CTIO ING A FALL

Music eventually becomes a subject taught as a secondary language (like French or Spanish) in schools. However, given that music is still an art form and just learning the theory is not enough, tools need to be developed to help expression of the language the language along.

N LUTIO RESO

Spotify focuses on developing tech to enhance the feelings and energy of the music by triggering responses in your brain and body.

Visual Narrative

MUSIC

ONAL I T O IS EM

EAT B E H T FEEL

EO UR FU TU RE

KID

ELL EM W H TH

TEAC

T IN

INVES

E UTUR

OUR F

Logic Diagram

Talk to Me

Consumer Economy

Music goes beyond entertainment to form a universal language

HARMONIOUS & UNSUSTAINABLE HARMONIOUS & SUSTAINABLE

Just What I Needed Music is a part of everyday life (80% of the day)

Music Communication

Sing It to Me

CHAOTIC & UNSUSTAINABLE CHAOTIC & SUSTAINABLE

Creator Economy

I know what you're thinking - FEEL the music that someone shared with you

Dear Diary There are more songs than there are words as everyone begins creating and sharing music

Music for Self

So Emotional 15 YEAR SCENARIO 2036

1. HOOKED ON A FEELING Music has always been a way of externalizing how you feel inside. Since we have had a way to record human voices and instruments, we also have had a way to express ourselves and then share that with others. When people are happy, they sing a happy song. When they are sad, they sing a sad song. Our culture is full of songs that express emotions. People share their feelings through music. They share their identity through music. It has always been the easiest way to transmit innermost feelings and thoughts to someone else creatively. In the year 2036, music and technology have evolved, utilizing ubiquitous devices, facial recognition, and AI to be a new form of communication. Sharing how anyone feels with another is as easy as just saying someone’s name, then a song is created using facial recognition of the emotions displayed and sent to the other individual in seconds. While the technology exists, many do not adopt it initially because they do not trust who is releasing the devices: the Big Tech giants.

2. I SECOND THAT EMOTION Music streaming services are now transitioning to become newly realized communication companies with music now being pushed politically as a universal global language that tells others how you're feeling without words. Immersive technology like AR and VR extends the reach of human senses, allowing people to become aware of things that weren't previously accessible. In doing so, it allows them to acquire new knowledge, experience pleasures and sufferings they hadn't encountered previously, and to engage more fully with the people around them.

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The globe becomes more and more empathetically connected through these immersive experiences and the creator economy booms. Society is no longer rampant with consumers mindlessly buying the latest trends, but prosumers who use their products and devices to pursue artistic endeavors. Spotify, who has never launched a standalone physical product, realizes the potential for innovating devices used to share music using mixed reality.

3. ANOTHER BRICK IN THE WALL With machines being smart enough to take over repetitive work, human involvement is only required in the spaces of creative thinking. Education evolves to shift focus on creative problem-solving skills and artistic expression rather than learning to do tasks that can be performed by a computer. No more tests, no more homework, no more grades. Actors for example would take acting classes their whole lives, starting in kindergarten and continuing through college, learning everything from theater history to singing and dancing to writing and performances.

No longer choosing a major based on what seems like a safe bet or what will pay the most. Music becomes a way of teaching children about emotions, even if they are not musicians. Musical instruments however are still largely the same as they had been for years, made of wood, strings, and metals. While the electronic versions of instruments have been replicated reasonably well, the motion and physicality of playing an instrument has not and cannot be satisfied with the click of a button or scrolls of a mouse.

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4. MORE THAN A FEELING The United Nations supports the initiative to have Music become a subject taught as a secondary language in all schools, like Latin, Spanish or French. However, given that Music is still an art form and just learning the theory is not enough, tools desperately need to be developed to help expression of the language become more formalized. Spotify focuses on utilizing the existing technology to enhance the feelings and energy of the music by triggering responses in the brain and body.

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Partnering directly with schools they create a line of virtual instruments that work in combination with facial and gesture recognition, tracking movements and expressions to produce the track you create instantly. Emotions can be controlled from the beginning, when feeling sad you can choose to use the sadness as the core emotion of the track being created or transform the sadness through the power of music. Creators can create full immersive experiences for each song, with scents, visuals, and temperatures customizable.

5. SWEET EMOTION In the end, Spotify leads the way in a new market because of the trust they have established throughout the years as a company that fosters creativity and connects everyone through music.

Implications & Responses

Art versus Science

Trust in Technology

Response: Focus on creating tools based in logic to speak the language of music but it will do so without letting the essence of music (as an art form) disappear

Response: Utilizing technology that could be considered intrusive, such as body and facial scanning, Spotify will need to invest in creating trust.

Childproofing Response: When it comes to music as a language for educational purposes, steps will need to be take to make sure that it does nor instill negative attributes through words or meanings (especially when teaching emotions like rage).

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IN 15 YEARS TIME By the year 2036, music has always been emotional and as technology advances with devices becoming more and more emotionally intelligent, companies that stream services will need to leverage it to their advantage. Especially with more and more people becoming prosumers. Music’s connection to emotion and the creator economy are not the only driving forces, but served as the basis for this scenario. What other plausible futures could be explored moving into the next five years?

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Black Swan

What if… the scientists are wrong about the Aphophis asteroid? Previous predictions have sparred earth from facing a disastrous fate with the over 300 foot asteroid which could damage an area as large as New York City or even Phoenix. Predictions are not always correct and there is always the possibility that if not Aphophis then another asteroid or galactic material interceptsthe atmosphere.

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Black Swan

N CTIO ING A FALL N LUTIO RESO

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Aphophis, a 340 foot asteroid’s trajectory is heading dangerously closer than expected. An emergency space redirection mission is launched by the main global entities uniting for the cause.

Music is used therapeutically to cope with the impending doom, as Spotify utilizes their tech to calm the general public. They seek partnerships with NASA.

SPACE

ODDIT

S ING I

THE

WAIT ART EST P HARD

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Space Oddity

15 YEAR BLACK SWAN SCENARIO 2036

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4. ROCKETMAN While previously predicted to steer clear of Earth, Aphophis, a 340 foot asteroid’s trajectory is heading dangerously closer than expected. An emergency space redirection mission is launched by the main global entities uniting for the cause. The mission aims to take control of Aphophis and attempt shift its trajectory to avoid a disastrous collision with Earth. The redirection mission is a risky one. With the new advancements in technology, it is now possible for a small team to orchestrate the deflecting of an asteroid. Spotify reaches out to collaboration with NASA, with their technology its have been developing for communication.

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5. LIFE ON MARS? The redirection mission is a success, the world narrowly escaped a disastrous fate. Because of NASA and Spotify’s collaboration, future projects include Music Lab which is aimed at exploring the potential for deep space communication.

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IMPLICATIONS & RESPONSES

Calming Fears Response: Utilizing algorithms in a positive way to qualm the anxiety that exists with impending doom and connect people.

Space Exploration Response: Thinking beyond Earth as a potential platform for services that Spotify can provide.

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Press Pause

116 WRAP UP 118 REFERENCES

Open search on Spotify and scan the code to listen the songs mentioned in this book

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n u l o c C n o n u o C l i c s n u l o c C n Co lusion onclu c C n o n o C l i c s n u l o c C n o n o C i c s n u l o c C n o n o C i c s n u l o c C n Co lusion on c C n o n o C i s n u l o c C n o n o C i s u l o c C n Co lusion o c C n o n o C i s u l c C n o C

Wrap Up

Looking at the potential trajectories of the future scenarios that Spotify could face helps the company shift gears and navigate the uncertainties ahead. Shifting mindsets and exploring the future possibilities, through scenario planning provides a proven structured methodology. COVID-19 has proven how valuable it is to be prepared for the worst of events. Through scenario planning, organizations, like Spotify, will be able to navigate anything that comes their way.

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TOMORROW NEVER KNOWS The music industry is always evolving, what is popular today may not be true tomorrow. It will take more than keeping up with trends to set streaming services apart in the future. Companies will need to set the trends themselves. As explored in this project, there are many different directions that may unfold as the world becomes more and more globalized. Spotify will not only need to set trends, but they will need to research ways that creativity and music connect us all.

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References https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-features/environmental-impact-streamingmusic-835220/ https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/the-hidden-costs-of-streamingmusic https://www.toptal.com/finance/market-research-analysts/state-of-music-industry https://www.charleskochinstitute.org/impact-stories/mainstream-disruptive-tech-madestreaming-music-new-normal/ https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/technology/how-streaming-ischanging-the-music-industry.html https://medium.com/@carsonsmadsen/embracing-innovation-in-music-deliveryc908363aa740 https://gizmodo.com/what-will-the-internet-look-like-in-2030-1837984973 https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-humanhealth_.html https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/5-jobs-2040-210837011.html https://soundcharts.com/blog/music-industry-trends https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcGL8QKsi70 [The Future of Music] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYb3Wimn01s [ How AI could compose a personalized soundtrack to your life] https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercsathy/2020/02/02/the-future-of-music-where-it-istoday--where-its-going-in-the-next-decade/?sh=1707267a707e https://www.sageaudio.com/blog/music-news/what-is-the-future-of-music.php https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20190521-what-will-music-be-like-in-20-years

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Brie Nestler | Service Design MFA Professor Jonathan Denham | Spring 2021 DMGT 783: Design Futures, Foresights, & Trends