Britain in Hong Kong March-April 2022

C H A I R M A N ' S M E S S A G E

Dear Members

I am writing this month’s statement from the isolated comfort of my quarantine hotel room. After an absence of 11 weeks, covering Christmas and New Year in the UK, I am on the last lap. When I left in December I expected to be back in Hong Kong by mid-January. But the twists and turns of COVID variants (combined with flight suspensions and a “wash-out”) have only gone to prove the adage that “The best laid schemes o’ mice an’ men gang oft a-gley”.

Those of you who have completed some form of quarantine will know that the evenings and weekends are a vacuum filled with endless hours watching all sorts of nonsense on TV.

“Quarantiners” have, for a few weeks only, an entirely defensible excuse to binge watch all those Netflix and Amazon Prime dramas that we otherwise only hear about from our teenage children.

This time has been different.

I have been unable to turn my eyes away from the news channels.

The local Hong Kong ones have been filled with reports of the unfolding COVID crisis and the Government response. The international ones have been pretty much dedicated to the terrible events in Ukraine. I have sat, surreally, in the cossetted surroundings of my hotel room, with a supply of brown paper bags delivering me breakfast, lunch and dinner and I have started to become concerned.

A fortnight’s isolation in a crisis with unlimited access to TV news and too much food is really not good for either the mental or physical well-being.

Just the rumours of tougher restrictions and isolations are having a material impact on business activity and at the same time causing a number of people – expats and Hong Kongers – to move away from the SAR, perhaps for an extended but temporary period, perhaps permanently.

Economists’ GDP growth forecasts have been adjusted downwards and the international border crossing statistics are not encouraging. There has been a net exit from Hong Kong of some 72,400 people in the month of February (95,000 departures and 22,600 arrivals)

Of course this is a cause for concern in the Chamber.

From my quarantine room I have tried to stay as close to the situation as possible by speaking to members, engaging with my friends and my colleagues and attempting to answer the question whether we are experiencing a systemic change or a temporary moment of anxiety.

One of the problems is that Hong Kong’s current COVID case load and the heavy pressures on the healthcare system are being experienced for the first time.

The rest of the world went through this phase of pandemic management some two years ago. We can all recall events from around the world in 2020: the harrowing scenes which began to emerge from Wuhan in January; the collapsing healthcare system in northern Italy in March; the lockdown for the winter and most of the spring in the UK, including the hospitalisation of the Prime Minister; the utterly fatigued faces of the healthcare workers in New York overwhelmed by the ambulances of sick and dying delivered to A&E. Hong Kong never went through any of this.

The second problem is that whilst Hong Kong seems to be taking a step back into the winter of 2020, the rest of the world is moving forward into the spring of 2022 and developing ways of ‘Living with COVID’. The rest of the world is ditching quarantine, PCR tests on arrival and isolation arrangements, Hong Kong is imposing some of the strictest versions we have seen so far. An asymmetry of COVID measures has emerged as a result.

The key take-away is that like Wuhan, northern Italy, the UK and New York, Hong Kong will emerge the other side of this moment and we will eventually see normal operations resume.

We have debated these issues at the General Committee and engaged with the membership through one Town Hall. I have also had many one-on-one virtual conversations with members from my quarantine hotel.

We can analyse the way forward in three phases:

- Dealing with and defeating the 5th wave;

- Exit and recovery from the 5th wave; and

- The longer term restoration of business confidence.

As we go to press with the magazine, we are writing to the Government along these lines and will make our letter available on the Chamber’s website so that you can see what we have said.

One of the key features of Hong Kong’s attractiveness as a business centre is the exceptional quality of the city’s international schools, many of which are members of the Chamber. Through the Education Sub-Committee we addressed one particular area of concern for students, parents and teachers – the proposal by the Government to close all schools during the Universal Testing programme in March and most of April and to reschedule teaching during July and August.

This arrangement clearly would not work for students studying an international curriculum and working to an international timetable. It was therefore pleasing that an exception was granted for international schools and they are now able to continue with their existing timetable arrangements, albeit on-line, until in-person schooling can be resumed – hopefully at the end of April. You can see the letter we wrote to the Education Secretary on this matter through this link.

The SME sector is the backbone of any vibrant business community and that is as true for Hong Kong as it is for much larger and more diverse economies. As the 5th wave began and before the Financial Secretary’s budget it was clear that we would need some more additional support for this critical business group. The chamber’s SME Sub- Committee wrote a letter with some substantive proposals and you can see this by following this link.

The current pandemic measures will have an impact on the spirit and prosperity of the community in which we live. In that context I am delighted with the Chamber’s initiative to launch a Community Outreach Programme. Through the Chamber’s Social Sustainability Committee (formerly the "CSR Steering Group”) we will be focusing on four areas:

- Environment & Energy;

- Youth & Education;

- Poverty alleviation; and

- Diversity & Inclusion.

These are important areas of concern for the future of Hong Kong and I hope as many members as possible can show their support.

I am convinced that it is at times of crisis that the business voice is critical. At the Chamber we will continue to advocate and lobby for the actions and outcomes that will allow Hong Kong to resume normal operations as quickly as possible. I do urge all members to get involved and participate in the discussion and debate. We value your input.

As a result of the current COVID measures the Chamber has had to revert to online events and zoom calls. Our events programme is, however, packed. Working from home makes it easier to squeeze in an hour over lunch from time to time.

As an active participant in Chamber webinars I can tell you that they are far superior to the hours you could otherwise spend on Netflix or Amazon Prime psycho dramas.

As we plan the Chamber’s calendar for the rest of the year the support for our members and business in general will be top of our programme. We know these are tough times and it is easy to believe, like the fabled chicken, that the sky is falling. Hong Kong is resilient and the opportunities for businesses are not going away. The sky will not fall.

Peter Burnett, OBE

Chairman, The British Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong