NWQ Black Jack

N.W.Q. ♠ ♥ ♣ ♦

BLACKJACK CARD COUNTING SYSTEM

By Bryan Mitchell

i

To four people who are in my thoughts every day, even though they are no longer with us. My Grandparents (Nettie and Henry Harris), my Father, (Billy Mitchell) and my Aunt (Dorothy Woods). Ironically all of you were great card players. Much of what I know about cards, and life, came from your teachings.

ii

Acknowledgments

There have been no greater influences in my life than Diana, Petra and Dr. Arlene Mitchell (Mom). All of you have been supportive in ways you could never imagine.

I would also like to thank all of the blackjack experts who came before me. Special thanks goes out to Dr. Edward Thorp who set this entire thing in motion, the late Lawrence Revere who’s writings launched my blackjack career, and the late Ken Uston who taught all of us that you could make millions playing this game and have fun doing it.

I would also like to thank Jocelyn Webb for her editorial assistance and her decade of friendship, and Kevin Campbell of Nivek Designs for his design of the NWQ logo.

iii

Table of Contents Acknowledgments

iii

Introduction Welcome to NWQ

ix

Chapter One, Why the Game can be Beat The Cost of Losing at Blackjack The Value of Winning at Blackjack Why the Game can be Beat, The Law of Independent Trials

01 02 03

Chapter Two, How to Learn NWQ What is NWQ? How to Use this Book The Learning Process

05 06 07

Chapter Three, Playing Even with the House Introduction to Basic Strategy Basic Strategy without Surrender Basic Strategy with Surrender Basic Strategy (Common Mistakes) Chapter Three Test Questions Answers to Chapter Three Test Questions

10 12 13 14 15 18

Chapter Four, The Effect Rules Have on Basic Strategy All Rules are Not Created Equal 21 Scoring a Game for Basic Strategy 22 Chapter Four Test Questions 25 Answers to Chapter Four Test Questions 27

iv

Table of Contents Continued Chapter Five, Introduction to Card Counting And the NWQ Alpha Numeric Count The Basics of Card Counting Numeric Card Values for NWQ Numeric Count Example Hand How to Practice the Numeric Count NWQ Alpha Numeric Count (“Alpha”) Alpha Count Example Hand How to Practice the Alpha Count The Effect Rules have on Card Counting Scoring a Game for Card Counting Chapter Five Test Questions Answers to Chapter Five Test Questions Chapter Six, Advanced Card Counting True Count Adjustments for the NWQAN Count (Numeric Count) True Count Adjustments for the NWQAN Count (Alpha Count) Insurance Bets Chapter Six Test Questions Answers to Chapter Six Test Questions

v

30 32 35 38 40 43 46 47 54 56 58 61 63 64 67 69

Table of Contents Continued Chapter Seven, Money Management Intro to Money Management Money Management Terminology NWQ Betting Systems and Money Management Betting System X Betting System Y Betting System Z Alpha Adjustments for Betting 300 to 1 Shot of Losing Stop Losses Win Targets Chapter Seven Test Questions Answers to Chapter Seven Test Questions

71 72 74 75 76 77 79 80 82 84 85 87

Chapter Eight, Advanced Playing Strategies Strategy Variations Strategy Variations Without Surrender Strategy Variations With Surrender Chapter Eight Test Questions Answers to Chapter Eight Test Questions

89 92 96 97 100

Chapter Nine, Playing in the Real World Casino Play Dealing with Your Surroundings Tipping Scouting Games Playing with OPM (Other Peoples Money)

103 104 105 106 106

vi

Table of Contents Continued Chapter Ten, How Not to Get Barred They Will Not Like You Staying in Business Your Look Your Play Playing with Heat The Claridge Team Play

110 111 111 112 114 117 119

Chapter Eleven, Single Vs. Multi Deck Play Single-Deck Games Double-Deck Games Multi-Deck Games

122 123 124

Chapter Twelve, Increasing Expected Earnings Speeding Up the Game Multiple Hands Back Counting Flashes The Not So Random Shuffle Tracked Shuffles Team Play Getting Comped Cheating

126 127 128 129 130 131 132 134 135

Chapter Thirteen, Keeping Score Keeping a Players Log Win / Loss Records

138 139

vii

Table of Contents Continued Chapter Fourteen, Blackjack as a Business Turning Pro Playing as a Pro

142 144

Chapter Fifteen, The Inter Game of Blackjack The Psychology of Winning and Losing

147

Chapter Sixteen, Continued Education A Funny Thing Happened Other Blackjack Books Training Software The NWQ Web Site (www.NWQG.com)

152 154 155 155

Chapter Seventeen, Additional Thoughts Giving Advice Superstition Tournaments Closing Thoughts

157 158 159 162

Index

163

About the Author

170

viii

Introduction Welcome to NWQ Each year millions of people fill the casinos and blackjack tables of Atlantic City, Las Vegas, Rio and hundreds of other cities around the world. Many of these people arrive in hopes of making a killing at the tables, others simply want to enjoy themselves and pass time in a social environment with the chance that they might actually win some money. But when it is all said and done, all of these people would like to be winners. The bad news is that most of these people will lose money and some of them will lose a great deal of money.

Peppered among these millions of people is a subculture of people who actually win a significant amount of money playing blackjack. Some of these players are professionals who make their living playing blackjack; others are recreational or semiprofessional players who have chosen to become proficient at this game in order to turn the tables on the casinos.

NWQ is your step-by-step guide to becoming one of these winning players.

Whether you want to be a professional player or simply a winning recreational player, NWQ will set you well on your way. Once you have completed your reading of this book, and put in some practice time, you too will be able to turn the tables on the house at casinos all over the world.

You will learn from Bryan Mitchell, a professional blackjack and poker player with over twenty years experience playing winning blackjack. You will learn one of the world’s most powerful card counting systems. The NWQ system not only turns the casino’s edge into your advantage, it is also effective in limiting the risk and difficulty that goes along with most other card counting systems of play.

The letters NWQ represent the North West Quadrant of a chart showing risk versus return. The “Y” axis of the ix

chart represents return on investment and the “X” axes of the chart represents the risk involved in playing blackjack, the NWQ system falls into the upper left corner of the chart, known as the North West Quadrant. The basic premise of NWQ is to maximize your return without increasing your risk.

Even as a skilled blackjack player you will not always win; therefore, it is important to minimize your losses on these occasions when you do not win. This is an important factor that many systems of card counting fail to address. It is also important that a system be applicable in “real world” situations. This is another area where some other systems fail.

NWQ addresses each of these issues. NWQ, because of its advanced strategies and money management techniques, will increase your returns and reduce your overall risk of playing blackjack while being “real world friendly.” With a little work you will not only be able to master the system, but you will be able to play in real world situations without making errors that cost you money. And you will play with an edge over the casinos. This edge will make you one of the most feared entities in the casino industry: A highly skilled card counter.

R E

NWQ

T U R N R

I

S

K x

Chapter One Why the Game Can be Beat The Cost of Losing at Blackjack You have heard it said a thousand times in a hundred variations, “The house always wins.” Well this statement is only about fifty five percent true and a hundred percent illogical. If the house “always” won, no one would ever play.

The fact is that in many casino games the house has a very small advantage, and in others the house has a very large advantage.

For example the house edge on a double zero roulette game is 5.27%. What this means is that in the long run the player will lose and the house will win about $50.00 for every thousand dollars that is bet. That’s only 100 bets at a ten-dollar minimum table. The house edge on the "pass" or "don’t pass" lines at a crap table or on a bet at the baccarat table is less than 1.5%. The house edge on slot machines can range from 1% to over 20% and games like keno or the bigsix-wheel can carry a house advantage over 20%.

So where does blackjack fit in here? Well I have good news and bad news. I will give you the bad news first.

Because blackjack is the only “game of skill” played on the casino’s tables (other than poker where you play against other players and not the house) the house edge depends on your level of skill. Therefore the house enjoys an advantage of between 1% and 15% over the “average” player or even greater with some very bad players. Even at a low 2%, this means that the house wins $20 for every $1000 you bet. If that does not sound like much, let’s put this into perspective.

If you play at the $10 table and bet an average of $20.00 per hand you will have put $1,400 into action every hour. In this time you will lose an average of over $25 per xi

hour. If you manage to get in more than 70 hands per hour (such as in tables with 3 or fewer players other players) your losing rate will be even higher. Of course there will be times you lose less or the times that you win, but over the long run your loses will average about $25 an hour at these limits with your 2% disadvantage. Keep in mind that this 2% number is a conservative estimation of the house advantage.

The Value of Winning at Blackjack Now comes the good news. Once you have learned the techniques in this book you will enjoy an advantage over the house. Your advantage will be in the area of 1% to 3%, but will be on average, in the area of 1.5%. This means that given the same limits discussed above you will now earn an average of $21 an hour at a 70 hand per hour table and about $30 per hour in a heads up (you playing against the dealer alone) game. You will also learn how to speed a game up allowing you to get in more hands per hour, thereby increasing your earnings.

This earnings number will change depending on the limits that you are playing and how well you play. If you are playing at the $5 table making average bets of $10, your earnings will be closer to $15 an hour. And if you are playing at the $50 table with a $100 average bet, your earnings will be about $150 an hour on average.

The key is to play as fast as you can with as few errors as possible, within the guidelines of your bankroll.

You will learn how to do each of these things in future chapters.

There are many blackjack books that claim earnings in excess of 1.5% to 3%. But in real word play you are never going to be able to play perfectly, so a more realistic target will be the 1.5% range. If you manage to earn in excess of this amount you are playing very close to perfect. But it should be noted (for reasons we will talk about in chapter ten) that there are times that you should not attempt to make xii

perfect plays. So even if you played like a robot you would most likely not earn more than 2% on average.

Why the Game Can be Beat, The Law of Independent Trials Each table game in a casino, with the exception of blackjack, is subject to what is known as the “Law of Independent Trials.� For example, if you are playing craps and roll a (7) 5 times in a row, the odds of rolling another (7) on roll number 6 has not changed. The dice have no way of knowing that 5 (7s) have been rolled previously. This holds true at roulette, slots and every other table game. Even games such as baccarat, Caribbean stud and three-card poker that use standard decks of cards are subject to the Law of Independent Trials. This is due to the structure of the game or the number of decks that are being used by the casino.

So how is blackjack different? A deck of cards does have a memory, and this memory is a major factor in the outcome of future hands that will be played. For example, if you take a single-deck of cards and remove one ace from that deck, your odds of getting a blackjack on future hands have dropped by 25%. If all of the fives are removed from a deck of cards, the dealer is now at a great disadvantage, for reasons we will cover in later chapters.

As cards are dealt from a single-deck or multiple decks of cards, the odds of you winning the next hand changes in and out of your favor. If you know that these odds have changed, how much they have changed and in what direction they have changed, you can adjust your betting to reflect this information. If you know that there are a disproportionate number of high or low cards in the deck, the way you play each hand will also change. These are the basic concepts behind card counting.

xiii

NOTES

xiv

Chapter Two How to Learn NWQ What is NWQ? In the early sixties Dr. Edward Thorp’s book Beat the Dealer came on the scene and delivered the first “Basic Strategy” and system of “Counting Cards.” These strategies were derived from hours of computer analyses and as a result changed the game forever. By 1971 Lawrence Revere and Julian Braun had developed an even more complex system for beating the game of blackjack, with even further and more advanced computer analyses. Since the 70s other important contributors to the world of winning blackjack play have included Stanley Roberts, Dr. Lance Humble and Ken Uston. Many others have developed systems over the years, most of which fail to deliver any advantage to a player at all. Some systems would give the player a welcome advantage but they are unfeasible for use in the real world of casino play.

The idea of NWQ is to bring you the best of the best.

Unlike many blackjack writers, I actually play cards for a living. Therefore it is important to me that a system of play not only be extremely accurate but is easy to use in the real world. And it is important that you are able to stay in business. Even the best card counters in the world run into negative bankroll swings and NWQ will help you limit these swings by reducing the overall risk that you take at the blackjack table.

The strength of NWQ is that it maximizes your returns with powerful card counting techniques and playing strategies while limiting your risk with the use of outstanding money management systems. xv

In writing this book I am going to make the assumption that the reader already knows the basic rules of casino blackjack. If you do not know the basics of how to play and have never played blackjack in a casino; you should acquire this knowledge as a prerequisite to continuing with this book. You can acquire this knowledge though basic gaming lessons offered by a number of casinos and through small easy-to-read pamphlets that are offered by casinos.

How to Use this Book Each chapter of this book is designed to teach you one or two specific lessons. Your first voyage though this text should be taken slowly and with great attention to detail.

At the end of each lesson there will be a test that will help you gauge whether or not you are ready to go on to the next sections. If you fail the test (get less 100 % of the questions correct) you should not advance to the next section until you have reviewed the chapter again, focusing on the area of the test that you failed, and then passed the test. Once you have completed the last chapters of the book and practiced the techniques that you are being taught, you will develop into a complete blackjack player.

Throughout this book I will be relaying a number of anecdotes. In most cases the names of people have been changed but not the names of cities or casinos. These stories are included not simply for your entertainment but also so that you can learn from the things that I have done right and wrong over the years. The stories will also allow you to see what happens in a casino through the eyes of a professional.

Once you have completed this book and put in your practice time, the book will become more of a reference manual than a teaching tool. You should refer back to the book as often as needed in the future. At the end of each chapter and at the back of the book, you will find a section for making notes. I strongly suggest that you keep good xvi

notes that may be used as a reference on future readings of the book.

The Learning Process: The skills needed to become a winning player will be taught step-by-step throughout this book. You will learn these skills in the order listed below and it will all come to together at the conclusion of this book with you emerging as a winning blackjack player: Basic Strategy: This is where you will learn the basics of how to play every possible hand you can be dealt at a blackjack table.

Basic Card Counting: Here you will learn basic card counting skills. You will learn how to track the ration of high versus low cards remaining in a deck at the blackjack table.

Advanced Card Counting: You will be taught the NWQ Alpha Numeric count. This is a system that combines the use of numbers and letters to track the ratio of high and low cards remaining in a deck.

Money Management: In this section you will learn how much you can bet based on your bankroll. You will also learn how to cut losses and increase winnings.

Advanced Playing Strategy: Here you will learn when to make variations to your basic playing strategy based on the cards that have been previously dealt.

Playing in the Real Word: In this section of the book you will learn how to take the knowledge you have acquired throughout the book and put it to use in a casino environment. You will also learn how not to get barred and how to deal with casino staff.

xvii

NOTES

xviii

Chapter Three Playing Even with The House Introduction to Basic Strategy In this chapter you will learn the basic strategy for blackjack. This basic strategy is the way you will play each hand you are dealt at a blackjack table. It is of great importance that you learn the charts that follow and play each hand exactly as recommended by the charts.

Later in this book you will learn when to make variations to basic strategy, but before you can learn variations you must master the basics. Basic strategy is the result of countless hours of computer analysis done over forty years ago by the pioneers of winning blackjack play.

The only changes made to basic strategy have been changes made as a result of rule changes in the casinos. For example, if the casinos allow the player to double down after splitting a pair (such as two 4s or two 9s) the strategy will be different than it would be if this rule did not exist. Also if you find a casino that offers surrender, the way you play 16 versus a dealer’s up card of 10 will change.

Surrender is an option offered by some casinos that allow you, the player, to throw in your cards (first two cards) without playing the hand. As a result, you will lose only ½ of your bet. For example: You are betting $50 per hand. You are dealt 15 and the dealer shows a king. You can throw in your hand and say, “surrender.” The dealer will then take your cards and $25 of your bet, and you are done with your hand.

The surrender option is not available in many casinos these days, but I will be including a basic strategy that includes this option just in case you have an opportunity to play using this option. We often see some casinos bring this xix

option back from time to time. The main reason this option is rarely found is that skilled players have an even greater advantage over the house when the surrender option is offered. With surrender the player picks up about .07% in advantage if he plays each hand correctly. The reason it is a smart idea for casinos to offer this option is because surrender is misused by the unskilled player so often that it more than compensates for the proper use by skilled players.

In fact, the surrender option will attract many more unskilled players and result in even greater profits for the casinos. But today, it still remains a rare option.

You will be taught a basic strategy that covers just about every blackjack game in the U.S. There will also be special notations for rule changes such as not being allowed to double down after splitting pairs. And I will include a separate chart that shows how to play your hand when the surrender option is available.

Many casinos even sell small basic strategy cards in their gift shops, and for the most part these cards are accurate. But you should never be in a situation where you have to refer to a “cheat sheet� while playing. You must master the information in this chapter if you are going to develop into a winning player.

Insurance is an option offered when the dealer shows an up card of ace. She will offer you a chance to insure your hand. Insurance is a bet that the dealer has an X (ten valued card such as 10, jack, queen, or king) in the hole and does in fact have blackjack. The insurance bet may be no more than 50% of the bet you made on your hand before the cards were dealt, but insurance pays out 2 to 1. If you were to take insurance and the dealer did have blackjack, you would lose your bet on your hand but you would get paid 2 to 1 on the insurance bet, causing you to break even. If you and the dealer both have blackjack, you will tie your original bet and win your insurance bet. Until you have gotten to the chapters on counting cards you should never take insurance, even when you have blackjack. xx

For each basic strategy chart you will be presented with a set of letters that represent the different options available to the player when playing each hand. The keys for these playing options are: S = Stand H = Hit D = Double down P = Split U = Surrender Also in these charts and throughout the book you will find the letter “X” representing all cards that are valued as 10 in the game of blackjack. These cards include 10s, jacks, queens and kings. The letter “A” represents an ace.

If you are not familiar with the term “soft” or “soft hand” as it is used when talking about blackjack; a soft hand is any hand that contains an ace and therefore can be counted two different ways. For example, a hand containing an ace and a 7 can be counted as 8 or as 18 because the ace can be used as 1 or 11. So if your hand is (ace, 7) it is described as “soft 18.”Ace, X (blackjack) is the only two-card hand that is not described as a soft hand. Also if the use of the ace as 11 would take your total greater than 20, the hand is no longer described as a soft hand. For example a hand of ace, 7, 5 would be described as 13 and never soft 23.

Another term you will find throughout this book is “shoe” The “shoe” is the device that the dealer deals from in games that use four or more decks. The term shoe, as it is used throughout this book, also refers to the total number of decks that are in play at a table. For example, when discussing a four-deck game the “shoe” represents four decks. In a two-deck game “shoe” represents two-decks, even though the dealer holds all of the cards in her hand.

xxi

BASIC STRATEGY (WITHOUT SURRENDER) Note: The column on the right represents your starting hand and totals after hitting your hand. The row on the top of the chart represents the dealer’s up card after the cards are dealt. Also note that, you will split 4,4 vs. a dealer’s 5,6 when you are allowed to double after splitting pairs, otherwise you will hit.

Chart 3-1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 X A 17 S S S S S S S S S S 16 S S S S S H H H H H 15 S S S S S H H H H H 14 S S S S S H H H H H 13 H S S S S H H H H H 12 H H S S S H H H H H 2 D D D H

3 D D D H

4 D D D H

5 D D D H

6 D D D H

7 D D H H

8 D D H H

9 D D H H

X D H H H

A H H H H

A,8 A,7 A,6 A,5 A,4 A,3 A,2

2 S S D H H H H

3 S D D H H H H

4 S D D D D D D

5 S D D D D D D

6 D D D D D D D

7 S S H H H H H

8 S S H H H H H

9 S S H H H H H

X S S H H H H H

A S H H H H H H

X,X 9,9 8,8 7,7 6,6 5,5 4,4 3,3 2,2 A,A

2 S P P P P D H P P P

3 S P P P P D H P P P

4 5 6 S S S P P P P P P P P P P P P D D D H H/P H/P P P P P P P P P P

7 S S P P H D H P P P

8 S P P H H D H H H P

9 S P P H H D H H H P

X S S P H H H H H H P

A S S P H H H H H H P

11 10 9 8

Until you learn to count cards, never take insurance. xxii

BASIC STRATEGY (WITH SURRENDER) 17 16 15 14 13 12

2 S S S S H H

3 S S S S S H

4 S S S S S S

5 S S S S S S

6 S S S S S S

7 S H H H H H

8 S H H H H H

9 S U H H H H

Chart 3-2 X A S S U U U U H H H H H H

11 10 9 8

2 D D D H

3 D D D H

4 D D D H

5 D D D H

6 D D D H

7 D D H H

8 D D H H

9 D D H H

X D H H H

A H H H H

A,8 A,7 A,6 A,5 A,4 A,3 A,2

2 S S D H H H H

3 S D D H H H H

4 S D D D D D D

5 S D D D D D D

6 D D D D D D D

7 S S H H H H H

8 S S H H H H H

9 S S H H H H H

X S S H H H H H

A S H H H H H H

X,X 9,9 8,8 7,7 6,6 5,5 4,4 3,3 2,2 A,A

2 S P P P P D H P P P

3 S P P P P D H P P P

4 5 6 S S S P P P P P P P P P P P P D D D H H/P H/P P P P P P P P P P

7 S S P P H D H P P P

8 S P P H H D H H H P

9 S P P H H D H H H P

X S S U H H H H H H P

A S S U H H H H H H P

Until you learn to count cards, never take insurance.

xxiii

Learning Basic Strategy When learning the basic strategy charts it is best to look for patterns that will help you master the information.

Many of the hands played are common sense to anyone who has ever played the game of blackjack, but you should never assume that you know how to play a certain hand.

Make sure that you know these charts inside and out and that you are able to pass the test at the end of this chapter before you play any real word blackjack. When learning basic strategy you should deal out a series of hands as if you where at a seven player blackjack table. Deal one up card for the dealer and deal the other seven hands (players hands) face up. Play each hand (without any regard to bets or to whether the hands are won or lost.) After you have played each hand, check your charts to see if you played your hands correctly.

Some people will be able to master basic strategy in less than an hour while others might need many hours of practice to learn the charts. Either way, it is important that you strive for perfection.

Common Mistakes Many players who believe they know and understand basic strategy continue to make some errors over and over.

These errors can cost thousands of dollars. Playing errors also dilute the edge that you gain by counting cards.

There are many playing errors that even skilled players tend to make over and over. There are other playing errors that many people who are learning basic strategy for the first time tend to make repeatedly. In this section we will cover some of the most common playing errors.

Insurance: Until you have gotten to the chapters on counting cards you should never take insurance.

xxiv

12 vs. dealer’s 2 and 3: Many players fail to hit their hand when they have 12 and the dealer shows a 2 or 3.

11 vs. dealer’s X: Many players are afraid of a dealer’s X and fail to double their hand totaling 11. This can be a costly error.

X,X vs. 2 through A: You should never split tens and face cards. This is one of the biggest errors you can make as a player.

9,9 vs. 7: Because the player should split 9s vs. a dealer’s 8, players often fail to stand on 9,9 when the dealer is showing a 7 as her up card.

8,8, vs. 9, X, Ace: Unless the surrender option is available, you will always split a pair of 8s.

All soft hands (A,2 – A,8): Most players fail to play these hands correctly, make sure you pay special attention to these hands when learning basic strategy.

Surrender hands: Because surrender is not always available, many players fail to play these hands correctly when they are given this option. There are only seven surrender options that you will need to learn, so it is important that you know what the options are even if you do not play in these games very often.

Chapter Three Test You should spend as much time as needed to master basic strategy. What follows is a short test of some of the basic strategy options. You should not continue on to the next chapter until you not only know the answer to every question in this test, but the other (over 270) hands as well.

xxv

Chapter Three Test Questions (Write your answers to the questions on a separate sheet of paper. Do not write your answers in the book because this will not allow you to retake the test later without clues as to the answers.)

1) The dealer is showing an up card of 8 and you have 9,9; how should you play your hand? ( H S P D U ) 2) The dealer is showing an up card of 6 and you have A,3; how should you play your hand? ( H S P D U ) 3) The dealer is showing an up card of 7 and you have A,6; how should you play your hand? ( H S P D U ) 4) The dealer is showing an up card of 9 and you have 5,5; how should you play your hand? ( H S P D U ) 5) You are in a game that does not allow you to double after you split pairs, the dealer shows an up card of 5 and you have 4,4; how should you play your hand?

(HSPDU) 6) The dealer is showing an up card of ace and you have 6,4; how should you play your hand? ( H S P D U ) 7) The dealer is showing an up card of ace and you have been dealt blackjack; would you like to take insurance? (Yes, No) 8) The dealer is showing an up card of 2 and you have 9,4; how should you play your hand? ( H S P D U ) 9) The dealer is showing an up card of 2 and you have A,7; how should you play your hand? ( H S P D U ) xxvi

10) The dealer is showing an up card of 3 and you have 8,4; how should you play your hand? ( H S P D U ) The answers to these questions can be found on the next page.

xxvii

Answers to Chapter Three Test Questions 1) The hand is 9,9 vs. a dealer’s 8. With this hand you should SPLIT your 9s. You may often be tempted to stand but standing will cost you money in the long run.

2) The hand is A,3 (soft 14) vs. a dealer's up card of 6.

You should DOUBLE DOWN with this hand. Every soft hand from soft 13 through soft 19 doubles-down vs. a dealer’s 6.

3) The hand is A,6 vs. a dealer’s up card of 7. This hand should be HIT until your hand equals a hard 17 or greater. Another common mistake is to stand with this hand.

4) The hand is 5,5 vs. a dealer’s up card of 9. This hand should be played as any other hand that totals 10 and you should DOUBLE DOWN vs. a dealer’s 9. There is never a time when you should split two 5s.

5) The hand is 4,4 vs. a dealer’s up card of 5 in a game that does not allow you to double down after splitting. Whenever the double after splitting option is not allowed, you should play this hand like any other hand that totals 8 and HIT vs. a 5 until your hand totals 12 or greater.

6) The hand is 6,4 vs. a dealer’s up card of ace. Not only should you not take insurance, but you should also not double down. This hand should be HIT vs. an ace until you have a hand totaling 17 or greater. There are no hands that double down vs. a dealer’s ace.

7) The hand is A,X (you have blackjack) and the dealer is showing an ace. The answer is NO, you should not xxviii

take insurance even when you have blackjack. Many players always take insurance or even money when they have blackjack, because they have a no lose situation. This is indeed a bad play because you are surrendering 50% of your profits from your 3 to 2 payout on blackjack. Later in the book you will be taught when you should and should not take insurance based on your count. Until you have learned to count cards you will never take insurance.

8) The hand is 9,4 vs. a dealer’s up card of 2. This hand causes one of the more common errors that players make. You must HIT any time the dealer shows a 2 and your hand totals 12 or 13.

9) Your hand is A,7 vs. a dealer’s up card of 2. This is a borderline hand but you should STAND with this hand and do not double down.

10) Your hand is 8,4 vs. a dealer’s up card of 3. This hand should be HIT one time.

If your score totals anything less than 100% correct, you need to review your basic strategy charts and do not continue any further into the book until you know the chart to perfection.

xxix

NOTES

xxx

Chapter Four The Effect Rules Have on Basic Strategy All Rules Are Not Created Equal If you play perfect basic strategy (and do not count cards) you will be playing just about even with the house in almost any game in the country. But there are certain rules that add to or subtract from the player’s even status. In the next chapter we will discuss rule variations that alter your edge as a card counter, but for now we will concentrate on rules that apply only to basic strategy. It is very important that you learn to recognize the rules that alter your edge; because if too many of the negative rules are in place, you should avoid the game all together.

In chart 4-1 I will show two sets of numbers beside every rule variation that you might find in a casino. The first number is the actual edge you gain or lose in terms of percentages. The second number should be used to score the game. You will score the game by totaling up the numbers in the score column. If, after scoring the game, the total is greater than + 3, you have found an excellent game from a basic strategy standpoint. If the score is less than –3 you should avoid the game all together. If the score falls between - 3 and + 3 you have found a game that can be beat with good card counting skills as long as it passes the test for a good counting game. Remember that your game not only has to exceed the basic strategy score in this chapter, but also the card counting score found in chapter five. A game that scores well in the basic strategy category but does not score well in the card counting category is not worth playing. The same holds true for a game that scores well for card counting xxxi

but does not score well for basic strategy. Most of the games that you will come across will be playable. But do not break down and play a bad game, you should hold out for a better game or you will be simply gambling.

Scoring a Game for Basic Strategy Review each rule against the game you wish to consider playing. Add to or subtract from your score using the number in the rule score column. If after analyzing your game the total score is less than - 3, forget playing this game at all because this would not be a beatable game even with the advantages gained by counting cards. If your score is greater than - 3, you have found a playable game, assuming the game then passes the ranking for card counting (chapter five.)

If you are not sure of the rules that are offered in the game that you are analyzing you can usually figure them out by watching the game for about ten to fifteen minutes. Many of these rules, such as surrender and dealer hits soft 17, can be found printed on the felt blackjack table. For some other rules such as doubling after splitting pairs or re-splitting hands, you may need to ask a floor person or dealer what the house rules are in their casino. Many of the rules below will be hard to find in any casino. These include doubling on 3 or more cards, surrender and hitting split aces.

If you come across a game where the dealer wins all pushes (dealer and the player have the same hand total), do not play in this game at all, ever. If you find this in a house game (playing in someone’s home, party etc.) and the deal passes around the table or can be bought, you should try by all means to be the banker. Such a game has an edge that even the best card counters in the world cannot overcome.

Remember that you are looking for games that score greater than - 3. If the game falls below this mark you will have a hard time beating the game even with good card counting skills, therefore you should avoid playing in these games. xxxii

Chart 4-1

Positive Rule Variation

The Effect on Players Edge

Rule Score

Double Down after Splitting Double Down on 3 Cards Hitting Split Aces Re-splitting Aces Re-splitting Other Pairs Surrender

+ .14 + .20 + .16 + .03 + .16 + .08

+2 +3 +2 +1 +2 +2 Chart 4-2

Negative Rule Variation

The Effect on Players Edge

Rule Score

Dealer Hits Soft 17 No Double on Hard 11 No Double on Hard 10 No Double on Hard 9 No Double on Soft Hands Player Gets < 3 to 2 for BJ Dealer Wins All Pushes

- .20 -1 - .90 -9 - .60 -6 - .15 -2 - .15 -2 - .90 -7 (never play this game)

Most of the games found in the U.S. will fall into the playable score range. If you ever come across a game that charges a fee of any type for playing each hand, or for playing for a set period of time, you should not play in these games. This could also include a riverboat game that charges you a fee simply for going out on the boat, unless your expected earnings rate is more than 4 times the cost of going out on the boat. I call this the return to cost ratio. The return to cost ratio is equal to your expected earnings divided by the cost for playing the game.

For example, if your cost for going out on the boat is $20 and your expected earnings for the 2.5 hours that you xxxiii

will be playing will be less than $80, you should avoid this game. You will learn more about expected earnings rate and how to make the expected earnings calculation in chapter seven.

Now I will answer the question that is on the mind of everyone who only has local access to games on riverboats, some reservations and other unattractive blackjack games.

What do I do if the only games I have access to do not make it past the playable score range or the expected earnings ratio better than 4 to 1? The answer is; use your best judgment.

But if you are going to be a winning player, you will need to play beatable games. I spend many hours on airplanes simply so that I can play the most favorable games in the country; the games found in Las Vegas. Why do I travel three thousand miles to play blackjack in Vegas when I live just 90 miles from Atlantic City? The answer is, double deck.

Even though Atlantic City has some very favorable blackjack rules (as of the time of this writing) they do not compare to the rules of the single and double-deck games available in Las Vegas. So if you are serious about making major money playing blackjack, you may need to get on a plane, train or automobile to get to a more favorable game.

Chances are, if the games in your area do not score enough to be ranked playable by the standards I set in this chapter and in chapter five, you will still be able to make small gains with good card counting skills. But this does not apply to games that charge a fee for you to play unless that fee is less than one quarter of one percent of your smallest bet when averaged out over 70 hands per hour.

xxxiv

Chapter Four Test Your test for this chapter will cover how to spot playable and non-playable games. Most of the answers are available in charts 4-1 and 4-2. It is important that you have an understanding of how to use these charts and how each rule changes the games in which you are playing.

If you fail to score 100% correct on this test, you should review the information in this chapter and retake the test before going on to future chapters.

Chapter Four Test Questions (Write your answers to the questions on a separate sheet of paper. Do not write your answers in the book because this will not allow you to retake the test later without clues as to the answers.)

1) You are in a casino that has two different blackjack pits. Both sets of tables have the same limits, same number of decks in play and all the same rules with one exception. In pit “A” the dealer hits their hand when they have a soft 17 and in pit “B” the dealer stands when they have soft 17, which game should you play? (Game A, Game B) 2) If you are betting an average of $10 per hand, but you are in a game that charges a vig (a fee) of 50 cents for each hand you play, should you continue to play this game? (Yes, No, Depends on other rules) 3) Score the following game: The dealer hits soft 17, and surrender is not offered. You can double down on any two cards and you can double after splitting pairs. Re-splitting is allowed on all pairs other than aces. (+1, +2, +3, -2, -3) xxxv

4) What is the minimum score a game must achieve before being considered playable? (+3, +2, 0, -2, -3) 5) You are on vacation. The town you are in has a riverboat blackjack game. The expected earning for this game is $20 per hour and the boat will be out for 3 hours. The cost of going out on the boat is $15. If your trip on this boat is for money- making purposes and not simply the enjoyment of going for the trip and playing a little blackjack, is this game worth playing? (Yes, No, More info is needed) The answers to these questions can be found on the next page.

xxxvi

Answers to Chapter Four Test Questions 1) Any time you have a choice between two games that are equal in all other respects, you should chose GAME B where the dealer does not hit soft 17. There are a number of casinos that offer both games. In most cases the no hit soft 17 rule is used in a multi deck game using four to eight decks and the hit soft 17 rule is used in games played with single or double decks. Once you can count cards the answer to this questions will depend on the number of decks used in the game. As a skilled card counter you will sacrifice the edge gained on the no hit soft 17 rule for the edge you will gain in games with fewer decks. As of this writing, there is a situation at the Stardust in Las Vegas where there are two blackjack pits ten feet apart, both using double decks and both playing with the same rules with the exception of the dealer hitting soft 17 in one pit. You should keep a look out for such situations and take advantage of them whenever possible.

2) Any game that charges a fee for each hand or for admission to the game (such as a riverboat game that charges you to go out on the ship) needs to be given special consideration. In the game described in question 2 the house is taking 5% of your minimum bet off the top. NO. This is not a beatable game even once you are a skilled card counter.

3) In the game described in question 3 your score is as follows: Dealer hitting soft 17 scores â&#x20AC;&#x201C;1, doubling down after splitting is worth +2, and re-splitting pairs is worth +2 for a total of PLUS 3 for this game.

xxxvii

4) Before any game can be played it should score MINUS 3 or higher. A game of + 4 would be an outstanding game off the top even without counting cards.

5) The ship goes out for 3 hours, but in many of these riverboat games the gambling does not start until the ship is out to sea. In some other locations the ship may not even leave the dock but in others the ship goes out to international waters. So the answer to this question would be MORE INFO needed. If you get to play for the entire 3 hours you will meet the 4 to 1 return to cost ratio. But if you only get to play for 2 hours, (unless you can increase your expected earnings), you should avoid this game.

xxxviii

NOTES

xxxix

Chapter Five Introduction to Card Counting And the NWQ Alpha Numeric Count And now the part you have been waiting for has finally come. But if you have not successfully passed each test in the preceding chapters, you should go back and score 100% on each test before reading this chapter. In this chapter we will cover all of the basics of card counting as well as the NWQ Alpha Numeric counting system. It should also be noted at this time that in the long run you would not beat the game of blackjack without counting cards.

The Basics of Card Counting The reason card counting works is because as cards are removed from a deck, the odds of the player winning or losing the next hands change. These odds changes will continue in and out of the playersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; favor until the cards are shuffled again. This holds true whether the cards are dealt from a single-deck or from multiple decks.

The key factor that determines the playersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; odds of winning or losing the next hand is the ratio of high to low cards, along with the absence of specific cards. As an example: If you were to remove all of the aces from a deck of cards there would be no blackjacks dealt until the deck was shuffled again. This is a major advantage to the dealer because when a player gets blackjack, the player gets paid 3 for 2 on his bet. But when the dealer gets blackjack the player only loses even money. Also the shortage of aces will reduce the number of hands that the player has an xl

opportunity to double down, again reducing your chances of winning more money.

When there are a relatively low number of high cards in the deck, it also changes the number of blackjacks the player will be dealt since you need a face card or a ten as well as an ace to have blackjack. And many of the hands that you will be doubling down with (such as 11, 10 and 9) benefit by a ten-valued card being dealt as well.

And then there is the most critical aspect of the rules of blackjack. This being that the dealer must hit when they have a hand totaling less than 17, but the player can stand on any hand total. This means, once again, that a deck that is rich with high cards benefits the player and a deck that is rich with low cards benefits the dealer.

In fact, the worse possible hand the dealer can hold for the casinoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s benefit would be 16. With 16 the dealer now holds the highest value hand that she must hit. Therefore the card that is of the greatest value to the dealer in the game of blackjack is a 5. One of the ways players have been known to cheat at blackjack is to remove 5s from the deck during play and dispose of them. If two fives are removed from a single-deck game the player would enjoy an advantage over the house of about 2% off the top. Notice that every stiff (bad hand) the dealer might be confronted with will benefit from a 5. A hand of 12 would become pat (a good hand) by becoming 17, 13 would become 18 and so on.

There are even some very simple card counting systems that only count aces and fives. Counting only aces and fives will not give the player a major advantage but the fact that it will give you some advantage over the house does illustrate the overall importance of these two cards.

When learning the NWQ count you will have a value for every card that is dealt from the deck (not just aces and fives). Some cards will have a value of plus one, some will have a value of minus one and some will be valued at zero, but you will need to acknowledge every card that is dealt from the deck. xli

How, you might ask, are you going to follow every card that is dealt from a deck or even six decks for that matter? It’s not as hard as it might sound. For starters you will not be memorizing every card. You will simply keep a running count of high cards versus low cards as they are dealt during the game. You will get more instruction on how this is done, later in this chapter. The important thing is to pay close attention, reread anything that you don’t understand totally and practice often.

Numeric Card Values for NWQ For this section you should have a deck of cards in your possession. If the deck is new, do not shuffle the deck, as it will be helpful in finding specific cards if the deck is in numerical order. Also do not do anything with the cards until you are instructed to.

The first part (the Numeric count) of the NWQ system is the same as the Wong High Low count system.

This High Low count is possibly the most used system of card counting in the world. The count is very accurate yet it’s very simple to use in real world play. There have been many complex, multi level counts developed over the last forty years. Some of these count systems do give the skilled player a slightly higher edge than the more simple High Low count does. But there are three major problems with complex card counting systems: One, they are often too difficult to use over long periods of time. This simply means that if you are playing for five or six straight hours you will get more tired and mentally fatigued using a complex system. And in cases where you are counting more than one game at a time (a situation we will discuss later in the book) it is much harder to follow the game with a complex system. The second problem with complex counts is that it is very difficult for many players to appear as though they are not counting cards. It is important to look natural at a blackjack table and a complex system of counting may make this xlii

impossible. And the third reason complex systems are less than beneficial for most players is the fact that you will make more errors with more complex systems, and one extra error an hour could cost you hundreds of dollars in earnings.

The extra fraction of a percent advantage that would be gained from a complex system is diluted by losses that come about from the three situations I just discussed. This is the reason most successful professionals stay away from complex systems.

Even thought the NWQ count is called Alpha Numeric, the first and most important part of the count you will learn is the “Numeric” portion. For NWQ you will have three Numeric values for the cards that can be dealt at a blackjack table. Each card will be given a value of Plus 1, Minus 1, or Zero. As each card is dealt from the deck the value of all of the cards will be continuously totaled to give you what is known as a running count. The suit of a card has no bearing in the game of blackjack and therefore need not be acknowledged.

The Numeric value for each card of the deck is as follows: Each card that is dealt from the deck that includes a 2,3,4,5, or 6 will be counted as PLUS 1 for your running count.

Each card that is dealt from the deck that includes 10, jack, queen, king (all of the X cards) and ace is counted as MINUS 1 for your running count.

Each card that is dealt from the deck that includes 7,8,9 will be valued as ZERO for your running count.

As each card is dealt from the deck, or, in face down games, as each card is dealt or exposed at the end of the hand (including all of the dealer’s cards) you will add or subtract that card’s count value from your running count.

For some examples, let’s get out your deck of cards.

Also you should write the value of the cards on a piece of xliii

paper to help you follow each example. Write 2-6 = +1, X and Ace = - 1, and 7,8,9 = 0.

For your example you are going to place cards where each of five hands plus a dealer hand would be played at a blackjack table. We will then count down each hand, card by card, creating a running count. The running count is your total count from each hand dealt since the cards were shuffled. Remember that in a real blackjack game you will always start each new shuffle with a count of zero and you always return your count to zero after each shuffle. If you are feeling a little lost right now hang in there, we will be going very slowly through our examples.

For this example we will go step by step into how you will count each card and place that count into your running count. Before we get started I am going to give you a tip that will make counting cards faster and easies and this is also the process that I will take you through with each example.

The key is to count sets of cards as opposed to individual cards. For example, in a face up game with four players (you and three other players) and a dealer, since the initial cards are dealt with each player getting two cards, instead of counting each card, you will count the sets of cards that you see on the table. If the first player’s hand has a 6 and a 3 (both cards valued at +1), instead of counting, “plus one, plus two”, in your head you should look at this combination of cards and say “plus two”. If the next two cards are a king and a 4 (a value of +1 for the king and -1 for the 4 for a total of zero) you will not count this hand as, plus one, minus one, you will count a hand like this as zero when you see it. Therefore your running count is still at +2. The first player’s hand is +2 and the second player’s hand is zero.

This makes your running count +2. If the next hand contains a 5 and a 2 (both cards valued at +1) your running count is now +4; +2 from hand one, zero from hand two, and +2 from hand three for a total of +4. The last player is dealt a 7 and a jack (a value of zero for the seven and -1 for the jack) making your running count +3; +2 from hand one, zero for xliv

hand two, +2 for hand three and –1 for hand four. Then the dealer’s up card is an 8, keeping your running count at +3 since the 8 is valued at zero.

You will then count each additional card dealt during the hand. This will become easier after we have run through a few more examples.

For each example we will assume 5 players and a dealer are at the blackjack table. When you are told to put a specific card on the table at a specific seat, remember that card suits do not matter. For cards described as X it does not matter whether you put down a ten, jack, queen or king, and the letter “A” represents an ace.

Your seat at the table will be seat number 1, with seats 2,3,4 and 5 being in order clockwise around the table starting from your seat. The dealer’s cards will be dealt in the 6th spot, which will be to your immediate right at the table.

Numeric Count Example: Deal out the following hand: Your cards: A,5 Seat two: X,X Seat three: 8,3 Seat four: A,X Seat five: 4,7 The dealer’s up card: 2 The dealer’s down card: 6 (unseen at this point) Now put the following cards on the top of the deck in this order: 3, X, 6, 9.

Counting Down the Hand (Numeric Count) As the hands are dealt we start counting with your hand (remember to try to count two cards at a time). Your count from a new shuffle always starts at zero. First you count your hand containing A,5 (these cards zero out with a xlv

-1 for the ace and +1 for the 5). Your running count remains at zero.

Seat two has two face cards, XX (these cards together equal -2) giving you a running count of - 2; zero from your hand and -2 for seat two’s hand.

The seat three hand equals +1, (zero for the 8 and +1 for the 3) and your running count goes to –1. Your running count was –2 and you added one point from this seat to take your count to -1.

Seat four has blackjack and the hand value is -2. When incorporated into your running count this moves your running count to -3. Your running count that was -1 before this hand was counted then the -2 from the blackjack hand (-1 for the ace and -1 for the ten valued card) moves the running count to –3.

Seat five’s hand is worth +1. (+1 for the 4 and zero for the 7) making your running count -2.

You now count the dealer’s up card, which is a 2 and this card counted on it’s own since you cannot see the down card yet. This card is valued at +1 making your running count -1 so far for this hand.

Now each player must play his or her hand. Using perfect basic strategy and playing against the dealer up card of 2 you will hit your hand.

You draw a 3 (the 3 is worth +1) and your running count now moves to zero.

Seat two stands, and the running count remains at zero.

xlvi

Seat three has eleven and doubles-down drawing an X (the face card is valued at -1) and your running count will become –1.

Seat four has blackjack and is paid, and then their cards are picked up right away, your running count stays at –1.

Seat five has eleven and doubles-down drawing a 6 (the 6 is valued at +1) moving your running count to zero.

The dealer turns over her down card and has a 6 in the hole (the 6 is valued at +1) making your running count +1.

She must take a hit, and she draws a 9 (the 9 is valued at zero) keeping your count at +1.

You will now go into the next hand counting down each hand the way you did here but this time starting your count at the beginning of the had at +1. You will not reset your count to zero until the card are shuffled, so wherever your end your running count for hands 2, 3, 4 etc. will be carried over to the next hand until the shuffle.

In the example above all of the card were dealt face up (other than the dealer’s whole card). This is the most common way for cards to be dealt in major casinos, but there are a number of games where the player’s first two cards are dealt face down. In this situation you will simply count each hand as it is exposed at the end of the hand. You will have to be careful not to miss any cards. Blackjacks and busted hands will be picked up very quickly and will need to be counted quickly.

Over time you will develop your own way of counting down the table. The example above is only a starting point for most players. After over twenty years of counting cards, I find myself counting two and three hands (4 to 6 cards) in sets rather than counting two cards at a time.

The bottom line is that you will have to get very good at counting card values very quickly. The faster you count, xlvii

the less likely you are to miss any cards and the more natural you will look playing at the table.

How to Practice the Numeric Count When you are first learning to count cards you will need to put in quite a bit of practice. You will need to be able to count down decks much faster then they could actually be dealt in a casino. The reason you must be able to count faster than the fastest of dealers can deal the hands, is that you cannot spend too much time staring at the cards on the blackjack table. You will need to hold conversations, look around, and simply look natural while playing. So your goal is to be fast, very fast at counting cards.

You have already learned how to count down a hand using pairs of cards to save time. This is also the same way you will practice counting, by counting down decks two cards at a time. Using your practice deck remove the jokers and make sure that there are 52 cards in the deck. Shuffle the deck and then holding the deck face down, remove one card and set this one card aside. This card will be used to confirm that you have counted down your deck correctly. Now take two cards off the top of the deck turning them over and place them down on the table. Count the cards using the NWQ Numeric count and create a running count by repeating this until you have turned over the entire deck two cards at a time. When you have gone through the entire deck and counted the last card you have left in your hand, you should have a current running count of +1, -1 or zero. If your running count ends at zero, the card that you set aside should be a 7, 8, or 9. If your ending count is +1, your extra card should be an X or Ace, and if your ending count is -1 your extra card should be a 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6. Any count higher than +1 or lower than -1 means that you have made at least one error during your count. If you are incorrect with your ending count do not shuffle the deck, recount the same cards in the same order until you get it right. xlviii

When you are successful in getting the deck counted down correctly, shuffle and repeat the process over and over as often as you have a chance to practice. Your goal is to be able to count down a single-deck of cards in less than twenty-five seconds and get the count correct each and every time. You will practice, practice, and practice until you get it right over and over again. You are not looking to be correct 90% or even 99% of the time. You want to be perfect. If you make a 1-card error counting a single-deck, this is like making a 6-card error counting six decks. This could result in your making a bet that is hundreds of dollars out of line.

You should also put in time practicing by dealing out hands as we did in our earlier exercise When you deal hands out on a table, you also get a chance to practice basic strategy as well as your counting skills. But as valuable as this type of practice can be, it does not build speed, and you will need speed to play successfully in the real world. Trust me when I tell you that you will not appreciate just how fast the hands are dealt at a blackjack table until the first time you try to count cards while playing in a live game. Until you are able to count down a deck, consistently in less than twenty-five seconds, do not even attempt to count cards in a live game. It will take about 10 hours of practice to achieve this type of speed.

Once you have mastered the numeric portion of the NWQ count, basic strategy and proper money management, you will be playing blackjack with a greater than 1% edge over the casinos. This is about the same edge that the house has over a player at the baccarat table or the crap table on a pass line bet. The two sections of NWQ that will take you beyond this 1% edge will be the numeric portion of the count (found in this chapter) along with the variations to basic strategy that you will find in chapter eight. If you are planning on playing blackjack only in lower limits (the $2 to $10 minimum tables) you can play successfully without the use of the alpha portion of the NWQ count and without the use of the variation to basic strategy discussed in chapter eight, But, you should take the time to study these portions xlix

of the book even if you do not use the information in live games. If you are going to play in games with limits higher than the $10 table you should take the time to learn the entire NWQ system. The alpha section along with the basic strategy variations will take your edge from an average of 1% to over 1.5% depending on the game you are playing.

If you choose not to use the alpha portion of the system, you can disregard each reference to Alpha Adjustments in future chapters.

The NWQ Alpha Count As with most other powerful card counting systems, NWQ, when played to its fullest requires you to side count aces. What this means is that not only are you counting aces along with your Numeric count (-1) but you will also keep track of all of the aces that are dealt in a separate count.

Some systems require that you keep a separate number in your head for each ace dealt. In such a system, if the count were -7 with three aces dealt you would have two numbers in your head (-7 and 3 aces). Some other systems require you to side count aces with your foot. You rock your foot on the floor at different angles to help you keep track of the number of aces dealt, and then you make adjustments to your running count to compensate for the number of aces that have been dealt.

After playing thousands of hours of blackjack using both of these techniques I learned that there are inherent problems with both. First, using the technique of keeping a second number in your head can become confusing in real world play. You often find yourself getting the numbers mixed up or forgetting one or both numbers. The problem with using your foot to track aces has a totally different problem. When you are sitting on a standard chair at a standard blackjack table, chances are your feet do not comfortably sit flat on the floor. I am over six feet tall and l

my feet do not lay flat on the floor at a standard blackjack table.

Because of these problems, I developed another technique for tracking aces. I found that by assigning a letter to each ace as it was side counted, you not only remembered the number of aces played with greater ease, you never confused your ace count with your running count.

When using NWQ, the Alpha count will be your system of tracking the ratio of aces to non aces dealt since the last shuffle, just as your Numeric count shows you the ratio of high cards versus low cards. The Alpha count is most effective in games that are played with four or fewer decks, so in games using six or eight decks you can disregard the Alpha count and any Alpha count conversions. Later in this chapter we will discuss the effects that the rules of the game and number of decks have on your card counting advantages.

For now, just keep in mind that, everything else being the same, the fewer decks in play, the more the game will be to your advantage. This rule does not apply to single-deck games for reasons we will discuss later.

Using the Alpha Count Should it really be called counting if you are using letters to track cards in place of numbers? We will leave this question open for debate. In the meantime let’s teach you how to use Alpha to track aces.

As each ace is dealt at the table you will continue to make it part of your Numeric count, but you also add each ace dealt to your Alpha count as well. The Alpha count is simply the use of the letters of the alphabet to monitor the number of aces that have been dealt, aside from your running Numeric count. After each shuffle, as you start your Numeric count over at zero, you will do the same for your Alpha count. The first ace dealt will be ace “A”, the second ace will be “B” the third ace will be “C” and so on.

Your side count of aces will be used in two areas.

One will be so that you have an idea of the number of aces li

that are represented in your running count, and this will affect your betting if there is a disproportionate number of aces that have or have not been dealt.

As an example: If you are playing in a deck game, there are eight aces in the deck. This means that when one deck has been dealt if your Alpha count is lower than a “D”, there are more aces still in the two-deck shoe than normal. If one and a half decks are dealt and your Alpha count is “H” you know that every ace has been dealt.

How will you use this information? For starters, if every ace has been dealt and you have a running Numeric count of +5, even though you have a favorable deck, you know that you will not be getting blackjack. So you will be making smaller bets than you might if you had a running count of +5 and four aces remained in the decks. You will learn how to make these adjustments in betting in chapter seven.

The second area affected by your side count of aces will be your insurance count. As mentioned in the chapter on basic strategy, if you cannot count cards you will not ever take insurance when it is offered. But as a card counter you will actually take insurance about 40% of the time. You will be using your true Numeric count to determine whether this is a good bet or not. And your Alpha count will come into play here as well. For example: When you are determining whether to take insurance or not you consider your true count. But what if your true count is +3 and there have not been any aces dealt yet out of the 50 or 60 cards that have been dealt? Even though the shoe is rich with high cards making an insurance bet (a bet that the dealer has a face card in the hole) a good bet, the deck is also rich with aces. This makes the running count inaccurate as far as telling you the ration of high to low cards remaining unless you make an adjustment for this disproportionate number of aces remaining. The reason is that aces are counted as high cards in your running count but they would be considered low cards in consideration of the number of cards that will win lii

the insurance bet for you. You will learn how to make this adjustment in chapter six.

Alpha Numeric Count Example: Deal out the following hand: Your cards: A,5 Seat two: X,X Seat three: 8,3 Seat four: A,X Seat five: 4,7 The dealer’s up card: 2 The dealer’s down card: 6 (unseen at this point) Now put the following cards on the top of the deck in this order: 3, X, 6, 9.

Counting Down the Hand (Alpha Numeric Count): As the hands are dealt we start counting with your hand.

(Remember to try to count two cards at a time.) Your count from a new shuffle always starts at zero. First you count your hand containing A,5 (these cards zero out with a -1 for the ace and +1 for the 5, but you assign the letter “A” to your Alpha count for the one ace that is dealt). Your running count remains at zero/ A. Seat two has two face cards, XX (these cards together equal –2 with no aces) giving you a running count of -2/A; zero from your hand and -2 for seat two’s hand and the “A” carried over from the first ace dealt.

The seat three hand equals +1, (zero for the 8 and +1 for the 3 with no aces) and your running count goes to -1/A. Your running count was -2 and you added one point from this seat to take your count to -1/A. Seat four has blackjack and the hand value is minus two with one ace. When incorporated into your running count this liii

moves your running count to -3/B. Your running count was -1/A before this hand was counted, then take the -2 from the blackjack hand (-1 for the ace and -1 for the ten valued card and moving your Alpha count up one letter for the ace dealt) moves the running count to -3/B. Seat five’s hand is worth +1. (+1 for the 4 and zero for the 7 and no aces) making your running count -2/B. You now count the dealer’s up card, which is a 2 and is counted on it’s own since you cannot see the down card yet.

This dealer’s 2 is valued at +1 making your running count -1/B so far for this hand.

Now each player must play his or her hand. Using perfect basic strategy and playing against the dealer up card of 2, you will hit your hand.

You draw a 3 (the 3 is worth +1) and your running count now moves to zero/B. Seat two stands and the running count remains at zero/B. Seat three has eleven and doubles-down drawing an X (the face card is valued at -1). Your running count becomes -1/B. Seat four has blackjack and is paid, and their cards are picked up right away. Your running count stays at –1/B because you have already counted this hand.

Seat five has eleven and doubles-down drawing a 6 (the 6 is valued at +1) moving your running count to zero/B The dealer turns over her down card and has a 6 in the hole (the 6 is valued at +1) making your running count +1/B. She must take a hit, and she draws a 9 (the 9 is valued at zero) keeping your count at +1/B. liv

You will now go into the next hand counting down each hand the way you did here but this time starting your count at the beginning of the hand at +1/B. You will not reset your count to zero until the cards are shuffled. So wherever you end your running count for hands 2, 3, 4 and so on, will be carried over to the next hand until the shuffle.

Associating the Alpha Count with Decks Played The Alpha count is of no use to you unless you are able to use this information to determine a shortage or surplus of aces remaining in the decks to be played. You will need to become accustomed to associating the letters that represent each ace played, with number of decks that have been dealt.

If you are playing a single-deck game, there will be 4 aces in the deck. The highest count you will get for Alpha will be “D”. So when playing single-deck, what you are looking for are situations where your Alpha count might be “A” late in the deck. This would be a deck that is rich in aces. If you were in the same game and had an Alpha count of “C” or “D” and only one hand has been dealt, you now have a deck that has a shortage of aces.

The most powerful use of the Alpha count will show up in double-deck games (games played with two decks of cards). This is my favorite game for reasons we will discuss later in the book. But for now you need to understand that the highest Alpha count you will have in a double-deck game will be “H”. Also remember that “B” is a standard count for a game where one half of one deck has been dealt. “D” is a standard count for a game where one full deck has been dealt. “F” is a standard count for a game where one and one half decks have been dealt, and if you were close to the bottom of a double-deck game, the standard Alpha count would be “G” or “H”.

If the decks remaining to be played are outside of these parameters you have a deck that is either rich or deficient of aces, and you will have to make adjustments for lv

your count. Chapters six and seven will teach you what to do with this information. For now you will need to associate the number of decks that have been played with the number of aces that have been dealt from these decks. In chart 5-A you will find the standard Alpha count levels associated with the number of different decks that have been dealt.

Chart 5-A

Number of Full Decks Dealt 1 2 3 4

Alpha Count Letter Representing a Full Decks D H L P

Because NWQ recommends playing in games that use four or fewer decks and the fact that the ratio of aces remaining does not have as great an effect on games played with more then four decks, I have only included Alpha letters up to â&#x20AC;&#x153;Pâ&#x20AC;? and four decks in the chart above. If you do end up playing in six or eight deck games you can disregard the Alpha count, because there is not much more gained from the side counting of aces with that many decks.

How to Practice the Alpha Numeric Count Just as with the Numeric only count, you will practice the Alpha Numeric count by running down decks as fast as possible and by dealing out hands while playing basic strategy, counting as fast as you can play each hand.

Another facet you should add to your practice regimen is to add another deck of cards to your practice deck. Now you are going to practice by counting down two decks. It is also a good idea to make two practice decks. To build your two practice decks you will actually need three ordinary decks of cards. What you will do is take two of the decks and add 15 cards to each deck from your third deck. lvi

For one of the decks you will add 4 aces and 11 face cards.

This will in effect give you a positive deck, that when counted down properly will give you a count of â&#x20AC;&#x201C;15/H, because of the 15 additional -1 valued cards and 4 aces that you have added to the deck. With your other practice deck you will add 15 low cards (2 to 6). This deck when counted down properly will have a count of +15/D, because of the 15 plus valued cards that have been added to the deck.

These two practice decks will allow you to become accustomed to counting down decks that have greater and fewer random swings in the count. In the real world you have counts as high as +15, +20 and even higher. You also get counts of â&#x20AC;&#x201C;15, -20 or lower. When counting down with a standard deck of cards you rarely have a chance to practice these super high and super low counts, but your two practice decks will give you this opportunity.

Just as when you are learning the Numeric count alone; you need to put in considerable practice time with the full Alpha Numeric count. You can never be too fast at counting down decks. Remember that the quicker you can count down hands in real world play, the more natural you will look while playing.

The Effect Rules Have on Card Counting As with basic strategy, there are certain rules offered by different casinos that effect how favorable the game is for you as a card counter. Most of the rules that affect basic strategy do not necessarily change the benefits of card counting. Rules such as being allowed to double after splitting or the dealer hitting soft 17 (change your benefits gained by playing good basic strategy.) Rules such as the number of decks used, and where the cut card (the plastic card that is put in the deck showing the dealer where to stop dealing and shuffle the cards for a new round) is placed change the benefits gained by counting cards.

Earlier in the book you where taught how to score a game based on the rules that affect basic strategy play and lvii

you were taught that you need a score of - 3 or higher for the game to be playable. You are now going to learn how to find a good game from a card counting perspective. The games that you choose to play should score playable in both grading systems (the game ranking for basic strategy and for counting) before you consider playing the game with the intention of making a decent amount of money. This does not mean that a game that does not score -3 or higher for the basic strategy test and -3 or higher for the counting cannot be played at all. You might have reasons to play games that are not truly favorable for a number of reasons. You might end up playing a game that does not fit the criteria because you are playing lower limits simply for the sake of practicing. Or you may not have a favorable game close to where you are located, but you still wish to put in some playing time. But if you are going to enjoy a 1.5% or higher edge, your game will have to score -3 or higher in both grading systems.

Before getting to our grading system for counting let’s look at a few rules and the effects they have on the game: Number of decks in play: For the last twenty-two years I have heard people say things like “Nobody can count cards in a six-deck game” or “That’s too many decks for card counters to beat the game.” None of these people were card counters or they would understand that the number of decks in play makes no difference when it comes to counting down decks. Because you do not have to memorize anything, it’s as simple to count twenty decks of cards, as it is to count down one deck.

What does change based on the number of decks that are in use at the table is how accurately your count reflects the nature of the next hands to be dealt. For example a +20 count after the first three rounds in a six-deck game would not be the same as a +20 count after three rounds in a twodeck (double-deck) game. The six-deck game could show another 40 low cards over the next three rounds, but the twodeck game does not have but 20 additional low cards lviii

remaining. In the example of the six-deck game you would have an edge of about 2% in the next hand. In the doubledeck example your edge would be over 5%.

Another thing that changes with the number of decks in play is how wide the swings are in your bankroll, as well as your odds of winning a specific session. I best describe this to my students this way: We are playing a game where there are 100 beans in a jar, (we will call it the â&#x20AC;&#x153;Hundred Beanâ&#x20AC;? game). There are 50 white and 50 black beans in the jar. You cannot see inside the jar but the contest consists of you reaching inside the jar and pulling out a black bean. You get to bet anything from $1 to $10 before each pull, and you will get to pull beans out of the jar until there are no beans left. Knowing that there are 50 white and 50 black beans in the jar, this will be a very profitable game for you if you simply count the number of black versus white beans that you have already pulled out. If you started out by betting $5 and ended up pulling out a white bean, you could increase your bet knowing that the odds of pulling out a black bean on your next turn have increased slightly. If after 20 pulls you have pulled out 3 black and 18 white, you could bet $10 on all of your next pulls and be assured to win, even if you never changed your bet. But most likely you would have a count that ranged from 5 too many white beans left to 5 too many black beans left. As long as you bet correctly, you should do very well at this game. But you could have some major bankroll swings along the way. Even though your count might go to +10 black beans or higher, you might still pull out 20 white beans in a row causing a swing of $200 from your $10 bets. This game is similar to a six-deck blackjack game.

What if you played the same game but this time there were only 30 beans in the jar, 15 white and 15 black. Your odds of winning have not changed but the odds of your bean count reflecting what you might actually pull on your next turn have greatly improved. Also since you cannot pull out 20 white beans in a row, your bankroll swings will be greatly reduced. This 30-bean game would be the bean game lix

equivalent of playing a double-deck blackjack game rather than a six-deck game. This is why the number of decks used in the game make a major difference for you when selecting where you will want to play.

There is one exception to this rule that the fewer decks in play the better. That would be in most single-deck games played in casinos today. We will examine these single-deck games in chapter eleven.

You will learn in chapter six how to make adjustments to your count based on the number of decks in play.

Placement of the cut card: The “cut card” is the card that is placed in the shoe showing the dealer where to deal her last hand and shuffle the cards. Depending on where you are playing, who the dealer is, and how the game is being managed, the cut card could be placed anywhere from half way into the shoe to 80% or even deeper into the shoe. This placement of the cut card is called the “percentage of penetration.” The deeper the penetration into the shoe (the greater percentage of the cards that will be dealt) the better it is for the card counter. Remember our bean game. Imagine the Hundred Bean game, but this time instead of getting 100 pulls of the 100 beans, you would only be allowed to pull 50 beans and make 50 bets. You would still play this game with an advantage because you know how to count the number of black beans remaining in the jar versus white beans, BUT there could be any number of black beans at the bottom of the jar that never come into play. Suppose there are 35 or more black beans at the bottom. You can still beat the game because you will be changing your bet from $1 to $10 based on your chances of pulling a black bean, but the game is not as favorable as it would be if you got to see 80 or 90 beans before the game ended.

The bottom line is that you want a game that has good penetration, so learn to watch where the dealer places the cut card. This may vary from casino to casino, and sometimes from dealer to dealer. In fact some double-deck lx

games do not even use a cut card. The casino simply gives the dealer a guideline to follow by telling the dealers to deal 75% (1 ½ of the 2 decks) of the cards. So you have one dealer dealing out 65 cards and another dealer coming to the same table and deals out 85 cards.

There are other situations when you will see the penetration change suddenly. If you, or another player at the table is suspected of being a card counter, the dealer might be instructed to deal only 50% of the cards to your game.

You must watch out for this situation because you might be in danger of being barred. We will discuss this further in chapter ten.

Automatic shuffle machines: Look closely when you are analyzing blackjack games in different casinos. You will notice that many places have automatic shuffle machines, designed to shuffle the cards for the dealer. These machines are not all created equally. Or at least not all of these games are created equally. In some of these games there are as many as six decks being used. The dealer only has two in her hand at a time but the other decks are being continuously shuffled. These games must be avoided at all times by the skilled and unskilled player! This is the worst game in the house for a card counter and has an even greater dilution of your advantage than an eight-deck game with 50% penetration.

Other games using machines are “true” two or fourdeck games. If there are two different sets of cards (you will know because they will be different colors) you can play these games without any problems. But be very careful that you are not playing a game with a continuously shuffled set of four or six decks. You cannot beat that type of game by counting cards.

lxi

Over-watched games: This is not so much a rule, as it is a situation. Games where the pit boss or the floor person is watching the game too closely should be avoided. If there is more than one person from the â&#x20AC;&#x153;floorâ&#x20AC;? watching the game, there could be a suspected card counter (it could be you) sitting at the table. Avoid this game. Most floor people do not actually watch the entire game unless they suspect something. So even one set of eyes on your game might be a problem.

There is one casino is Las Vegas that has what would be a very good double-deck game, but they have put all of the double-deck games in a semicircle. From this setup, the games can be watched by one floor person standing in the center, but they often have three people watching 4 games.

Any game watched this closely should be avoided unless you are playing with a count team. See chapter twelve about team play.

Speed of the game: Another situational issue that is not related to any rules but is very important to your success would be the number of hands that are being dealt per hour.

Because you are playing with an advantage over the casino, the more hands you play in a favorable game, the more money you will earn. A card counter with a 1% edge playing 140 hands an hour would make more money than a superior card counter with a 2% edge getting only 60 hands per hour.

You will learn in chapter twelve how to speed up the game but you can only control the speed of the game to a limited extent.

There are three things that often influence the speed of the game. One: How fast is the dealer? If the dealer is noticeably slower than other dealers, or they appear to be in training (you will know this is the case if there is another dealer standing by their side) avoid this game. Sometimes you are playing at a table where you have a very fast dealer and they go on break. Then, a much slower dealer comes in for the next twenty minutes. If you can be assured that the lxii

slow dealer is only the relief person and a faster dealer will return, it might be ok to remain at this table.

Years ago I would play in the high limit pit at The Sands in Atlantic City during the graveyard shift. Then one night something very interesting happened. Our regular dealer left for home and the slowest, most awkward dealer I have ever seen came to deal at my table. I did not understand why this was happening. Where did this guy come from?

Why was he so slow? I am not kidding when I say that “I” could have dealt this game three times faster than this guy. I had to ask him “Are you a new dealer?” He replied, “No, I have been dealing for five years.” Now even more curious I asked, “Have you been dealing blackjack?” He said “Yes, but I work at the crap table ninety percent of the time and late at night when business is slow, they send the regular blackjack dealers home, many of the crap tables close down and I am sent to deal blackjack.” If you know of situations like this taking place at certain casinos where you play, try to avoid the game during these times. Slow dealers equal smaller earnings per hour for you.

Another thing that will slow your game down is a slow player. If there is someone very new to the game, drunk, or just simply very slow at playing their cards, this could slow down your game as much as 20%. Sometimes it will be worth putting up with this player if all other factors of the game are favorable. But if you get two or more players like this at your table, move on to a faster game.

The number of players at your table can be the most important factor in the speed of the game. I often play during off hours (such as the graveyard shift) so that I can play head up or with just one other player at my table. You can triple the number of hands you are dealt simply by finding tables with fewer players or playing during non-peak hours.

lxiii

Scoring a Game for Card Counting It will take much less time to score a game for counting than it takes to score a game for basic strategy. In most cases you can walk past a table and know what rules are in use. You are looking for key things in your analysis of the game. Where is the cut card being placed (penetration)?

How many decks are in use? How many sets of eyes are on the game? How fast is the game? In some cases the score you give the game will be subjective. For example, how fast the dealer or the players are will be up to you to judge. When trying to gauge the speed of the game, simply compare it to other games that you have played in or other games in the same casino.

Remember that you are looking for games that score greater than -3. If the game falls below this mark you will have a hard time beating the game even with good card counting skills, therefore you should avoid playing in these games.

Chart 5-1

Positive Rules Or Situation

Est. Effect on Players Edge

Two Decks Used + .00 Four Decks Used (vs. 2deck) N/M 70% Penetration N/A 75% Penetration + .10 80% or > Penetration + .15 Unmonitored Game N/A 2 or Fewer Other Players N/A Dealer Above Average Speed N/A

lxiv

Rule Score +3 +0 +0 +2 +3 +1 +2 +1

Chart 5-2

Negative Rules Or Situations

Est. Effect on Players Edge

Rule Score

Six Decks Used (vs. 2deck) - .30 -2 Eight Decks Used (vs. 2deck) - .60 -5 50% Penetration -1.50 -8 60% Penetration -1.00 -6 Over watched game N/A -3 Full Table (all spots played) N/A -2 Dealer Below Average Speed N/A -2 Continuous Shuffle Machine (Do not play this game at all) * Remember that some shuffle machines are using two different sets of decks. These are not the continuous shuffle machines that we are talking about in the chart. We are talking about machines that continuously shuffle the same 6 or 8 decks constantly.

When scouting out games to play, remember to score the game for basic strategy play (chapter four) and card counting play (this chapter). If both tests do not score -3 or better, you should avoid these games. This does not mean that you combine the basic strategy rating with the card counting rating. Each test is done independently. A game that is great for basic strategy play yet falls below par for card counting play should still be avoided.

Once you have posted a few hours of analyzing games, you will eventually be able to score a game without using the scoring systems. You will simply be able to look at a game and in two minutes tell it is a game you should be playing. Just remember that the key things that make a game unfavorable for counters, in order of importance are: 1) Continuous shuffle machines 2) Bad penetration 3) Six or more decks 4) Too many eyes on the game.

lxv

Chapter Five Test Your test for this chapter will cover how to spot playable and non-playable games as well as how to count down decks. Many of the answers are available by using charts 5-1 and 5-2. It is important that you have an understanding of how to use these charts and how each rule affects the games in which you are playing. Part of the test will include counting down decks. You should have a standard deck of cards available before starting the test.

If you fail to score 100% correct on this test, you should review the information in this chapter and retake the test before going on to future chapters.

Chapter Five Test Questions (Write your answers to the questions on a separate sheet of paper. Do not write your answers in the book because this will not allow you to retake the test later without clues as to the answers.)

1) You are scouting out a game and you notice the following: There's six decks in play and only three players at the table, each playing one hand. The dealer, who is above average in her speed, is dealing out 75% of the cards in the shoe. The floor person does not seem to be watching this game too carefully.

How would you score this game? (-1, -2, 0, +1, +2) 2) In the above situation, should you play this game?

(Yes, No, Depends on other rules) 3) You are in a game where two decks are being used.

There have been 3 aces dealt so far. What should your Alpha count be at this point? (A, B, C, D, E)

lxvi

4) Remove one card from a standard deck and count down the deck using the Numeric count only. Time yourself. Did you count the deck down in less than 25 seconds? (Yes, No). Was your count correct? (Yes, No) 5) Count the following cards: XX, A5, X3, AA, 73, X6, A2, 87, 44, 57, A9. What is the Alpha Numeric count? (–1/E, -3/D, -1/D, -5/E, +1/E) 6) Should you play in games that use continuous automatic shuffle machines? (Yes, No, Depends on other rules) 7) You have your choice of three games. Game “A” uses two decks and has 70% penetration. Game “B” uses four decks and has 75% penetration, and game “C” uses eight decks and has 80% penetration. Which game should you play? (Game A, Game B, Game C) 8) You have an Alpha Numeric count of +5/H. How many aces have been dealt? (3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9) 9) In the above question, if there have been three decks of a six-deck shoe dealt so far, is the remainder of the decks rich or poor with aces? (Rich, Poor) 10) You have your choice of three games. Game “A” uses two decks and has 70% penetration. Game “B” uses four decks and has 70% penetration, and game “C” uses eight decks and has 70% penetration. Which game would have the greatest bankroll fluctuations?

(Game A, Game B, Game C) The answers to these questions can be found on the next page.

lxvii

Answers to Chapter Five Test Questions 1) Using your score sheet, this game scores PLUS 1.

You give this game -2 for the six-deck shoe, -2 for the 75% penetration and +1 for the faster than average dealer. Having 3 players at the table does not score a plus or minus count.

2) This game is not automatically playable. You have to determine if it qualifies under your scoring for basic strategy play as well. So playing this game DEPENDS ON OTHER RULES. 3) It does not matter how many decks are used, if there are 3 aces dealt your Alpha count is C. 4) If you did not count down this deck in less than twenty-five seconds with the correct count at the end, you need to recount until you get the count right in the allotted time frame.

5) This hand has 9 high cards, 8 low cards, and 5 of the high cards are aces. This makes your count MINUS 1/E. 6) NO. You should never play in games that use machines that continuously shuffle six or eight decks.

There are some machines that shuffle two sets of double-decks. These games are fine to play in. You can spot the difference because the true double-deck game uses different colors for each deck. You may need to watch a full round played out before you know for sure which type of game you are watching, or you can ask the dealer.

lxviii

7) In this example GAME A is the best choice. For a four or six-deck game to win over a double deck game with the same rules, there would need to be much greater penetration.

8) The â&#x20AC;&#x153;Hâ&#x20AC;? in your count shows that EIGHT aces have been dealt.

9) If three decks have been dealt and only eight aces, the remainder of the shoe is RICH four aces. Anything short of 12 aces being dealt from the three decks would result in a rich shoe. Anything greater than 12 aces out of the three decks would make the deck ace poor.

10) All other factors being the same, GAME C would show the greatest fluctuations in bankroll. Remember the Hundred Bean game.

lxix

NOTES

lxx

Chapter Six Advanced Card Counting True Count Adjustments for the NWQAN Count (Numeric Count) Up to now you have learned how to acquire and keep a running count for the Alpha Numeric system. In the real world you will need to make an adjustment in your count to reflect the number of decks that are in play. For example, a running count of +15 in a single-deck game, has much greater meaning than +15 in a six-deck game; therefore there are adjustments that need to be made. When these adjustments are made, you will have what is known as a true count. The true count is the count that you will use to determine the size of your bets, variations to basic strategy and whether or not you will take insurance.

To get your true count you will need to do some simple division. What you will be doing is dividing your running count by the number of decks remaining in the dealer shoe, or remaining in her hand for a double-deck game (the number of decks that are yet to be dealt). For example, if you are playing a six-deck game with your running count at +12, and only two of the six decks have been dealt there are four decks left in the dealerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s shoe.

Therefore you will divide your running count of +12 by 4 to get a true count of +3. In the same example, if your running count were -12, your true count would be â&#x20AC;&#x201C;3.

Another example would be a game using four decks.

You have a running count of +2 and two of the four decks have been dealt. Once you divide the +2 count by the two remaining decks you have a true count of +1.

You will need to become accustomed to looking at the discard pile (the stack of cards that have been already lxxi

dealt) and estimating the number of decks remaining to be played. This will come easier and easier to do as you gain more and more experience. Until then you should practice identifying what one, two, three, and four decks look like when they are stacked one on top of the other. You can practice this by simply stacking decks of cards one on top of each other until you have a visual imprint of what a specific number of decks looks like.

Below are a few examples to assure that you understand how to convert a running count into a true count.

Notice that any time there would be a half number we always round to the conservative side. This means that you always round your true count number down. Also, anytime there are half decks remaining you round the number of decks remaining up and divide by the higher number.

Chart 6-1

Running Count

Decks in Use

+12 +10 + 4 + 8 + 9 +13

6 6 4 4 2 2

Decks Decks True in Take-up Remaining Count 2 2 1 2 ½ ½

4 4 3 2 1½ 1½

+3 +2 +1 +4 +4 +6

Your conversion to true count is to allow you to make bets, and basic strategy variations during the hand that you are playing or about to play. Once you have converted to the true count and used the information to place your bet or make your playing decision, you will revert back to your running count until the next hand is played and you need this true count information again. There will always be a moment during the play of each hand that you have both numbers in your head. Simply stated, your true count does not follow you from hand to hand but the running count does.

lxxii

True Count Adjustments for the NWQAN Count (Alpha Count) The other true count conversion you need to make is the conversion for the number of aces played. This conversion is not as important as the conversion for the Numeric count and will very rarely be used. As you become more advanced at counting, you will look for discrepancies in the number of aces played versus the number that should have been played. You will use this information when the size of your bet falls on a dividing line. As you recall from chart 6-1 you always round your count down to the conservative side. But what if you have a remaining deck that is super rich with aces? This may change how you bet your hand. You will also learn, later in this chapter, how to make insurance bets. This is another bet that can be affected by the number of aces that have been played versus the number that should have been played.

In a single-deck game, you would be looking for situations where one or more aces are out of place. Likewise, in double-deck games you will be looking for situations where there are two or more aces out of place and in fourdeck games, you are looking for situations where there are four or more aces out of place. Remember, in six-deck or eight-deck games you will not need to side count aces or make conversions for your Alpha count at all.

For now you will simply learn how to spot these discrepancies in the number of aces that have been played.

You will learn later how to use this information. In chart 6-2 you will see examples of Alpha conversions and the discrepancies in the number of aces that have been played.

lxxiii

Chart 6-2

Decks in Use 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 1

Decks Decks Alpha Aces in Take-up Remaining Count + Rich/ -Poor 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 ½ ½ ½

2 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 ½ ½ ½

H H A A A H D C B D A

even - 4 +3 +7 +3 - 4 even +1 even -2 +1

Insurance Bets A reminder as to what an insurance bet is: This is a bet that you make after the hands have been dealt and the dealer is showing an ace as her up card. She will offer insurance to all the players at the table. You are betting that she has an X (ten valued card) in the hole and does in fact have blackjack. If she does not have blackjack the insurance bets are collected and the hand continues. If she does have blackjack, she collects all of the bets from losing hands (everyone who does not have blackjack) and she pays out the insurance bets at $2 for each $1 bet.

Knowing when to take insurance is a very important decision to make at a blackjack table. This is a bet that pays 2 to 1 and can save or cost you thousands of dollars over time. The reason I use the word save as opposed to earn is that most of the time when you win an insurance bet, you lost the hand and simply broke even. The reason this is the

lxxiv

case is simply that you can only win an insurance bet if the dealer has blackjack.

The most you can bet on an insurance bet is ½ of your initial bet, so you can never show a net gain from an insurance bet unless you also have blackjack, because you will push (tie the dealer) the initial bet, and win the insurance bet.

Most unskilled players know only two things about insurance bets. One, insurance is a sucker bet. Two, you should take insurance if you have blackjack because you will always show a net gain equal to your initial bet. Well, as usual, the unskilled player is wrong on both accounts.

For starters, insurance is a bad bet if you cannot count cards, because the odds are greater than 2 to 1 that the dealer does not have blackjack. Next, you should not always take insurance when you have blackjack and the dealer shows an ace. The odds that the dealer does not have a ten in the hole still have not changed. In fact, the odds are lesser because you are holding one of the cards needed for the dealer to have blackjack. Insurance should be looked at as an independent bet. You should take insurance when the count justifies taking insurance, regardless of your hand.

So when do you take insurance? Now that you can count cards, you will take insurance anytime the dealer is showing an ace (the only time this bet is offered) and your TRUE count is +2 or greater. Regardless of what hand you currently hold, you should always take insurance with a true count that is +2 or greater.

The only exception to this rule and one of the reasons for the Alpha count is that a true count of +2 with a deck that is overly rich with aces is not favorable for an insurance bet.

So if you are playing in a double-deck game and the true count is right at +2 but the deck is rich with 2 or more aces you will not take insurance. If the deck is rich with 2 or more aces in a double-deck game you need a true count of +3 or higher to take insurance. In a four-deck game that is rich with 4 or more aces, you will need a count of +3 or higher. lxxv

And in six-deck or eight-deck games you will always take insurance with a true count of +2 or higher.

In chart 6-3 we will examine situations where you should or should not take insurance. Review each situation until you understand why you should or should not take insurance in the situation presented.

Chart 6-3

True Count

Decks Used

Decks Played

Alpha Count

Should You Insure

+2 +3 +2 +3 +4 +1 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2 +2

4 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 1

3 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 ½ ¼ ½

L L A A A E D A C A A A

YES YES NO YES YES NO YES NO YES NO YES NO

These examples should give you some guidelines as to when you should and should not take insurance based on your running Numeric count along with your adjusted Alpha count. In time you develop a feel for the “ace adjusted” insurance counts, but until that time comes you should take the time to calculate the adjustment. If your true count is equal to or greater than +3, you do not need to do any calculations. You will always take insurance with a count of +3 or higher, and you will never take insurance when the true count is +1 or lower. The only time you will need to look for Alpha adjustments before taking insurance is when you have a true count of +2 exactly.

lxxvi

Chapter Six Test This will be the shortest (only five questions) test you have taken so far but it will be the most difficult. You will need to do calculations for true counts, number of remaining decks and Alpha conversions.

If you fail to score 100% correct on this test, you should review the information in this chapter and retake the test before going on to future chapters.

Chapter Six Test Questions (Write your answers to the questions on a separate sheet of paper. Do not write your answers in the book because this will not allow you to retake the test later without clues as to the answers.)

1) You are playing in a six-deck game and there have been four of the six decks dealt. You have a running count of +10, what is your true count? (+2, +4, + 5, +6, +10) 2) You are playing in a four-deck game and there have been two of the four decks dealt. You have a true count of +2 and your Alpha count is “A” should you take insurance? (Yes, No) 3) You are playing in a four-deck game and there have been two of the four decks dealt. You have a true count of +2 and your Alpha count is “J” should you take insurance? (Yes, No) 4) You are playing in a double-deck game and have a running count of +2 with one deck remaining to be played. Your Alpha count is “B”. Should you take insurance? (Yes, No)

lxxvii

5) You are playing in a four-deck game and two decks have been dealt. You have a running count of +4 and an Alpha count of “G”, should you take insurance?

(Yes, No) The answers to these questions can be found on the next page.

lxxviii

Answers to Chapter Six Test Questions 1) Regardless of the number of decks used in a game, you always divide your running count by the number of decks remaining to be played. With a running count of +10 your true count will be PLUS 5. (10 divided by 2 equals 5.)

2) The game described is ace rich by 7 aces. Your true count is +2 but with 7 too many aces remaining in your deck your insurance count is deceptive. This ace rich deck is favorable for betting but not for an insurance bet. If the true count were +3 you could take insurance. But the answer to this question is NO, you should not take insurance in this situation.

3) This is the same situation as described in question number two, but this time you have a much different Alpha count. With your Alpha count at â&#x20AC;&#x153;Jâ&#x20AC;? and a true count of +2, YES you should take insurance. In fact your remaining decks are ace poor making your insurance bet more likely to win than a normal +2 count.

4) The game described in question four is ace rich by two aces. Even with a +2 true count the extra two aces would make your answer NO, you should not take insurance. If there were only one extra ace in the double-deck game, or a true count of +3 or more, you would take insurance.

5) In question five your true count would be +2 and your Alpha count is only one ace short of normal for two remaining decks. In this case, YES you should take insurance.

lxxix

NOTES

lxxx

Chapter Seven Money Management Intro to Money Management How much will you win (on average) playing blackjack? How much will you bet on each hand? What are the odds of you winning?

These are the questions we will answer in this chapter. Money management is the heart and soul of any successful gambling system and because the primary feature of the NWQ system is to maximize your wins while limiting your losses, money management is even more important here.

In this chapter you will analyze the size of your bankroll, the types of games you will be playing and the limits that you will be playing. We will then determine a betting strategy to fit your tolerance for risk and the size of your bankroll.

Playing Multiple Hands While you are playing, you will often choose to play more than one hand at a time at the blackjack table. This strategy will have plusses and minuses associated with it, and they will be discussed later in the book. But for now you should know that when playing two hands at the same time you can bet a slight bit more money without increasing your overall risk. Do not overuse this idea because the increase in amount that you can bet is slight. In fact, this amount is less than 15%. For example, if you are playing at a $50 table and the system allows for you to bet $200 on the next hand, you lxxxi

could play two hands of $115 each without taking on any additional risk.

Money Management Terminology There are a few terms you will need to understand in order to follow this chapter, and they are: Player’s Edge- When you play NWQ perfectly without the benefit of strategy variations you will be playing with a 1% to 1 ½ % edge over the casino. When you learn strategy variations in the next chapter, you will be learning to increase this advantage even more, while reducing your overall risk. Until then you must assume your edge over most games will be from 1% to 1 ½% Total Bankroll- The total amount of money that you have allocated for playing blackjack. This is money that serves no other purpose. Your total bankroll can get larger or smaller over time and you will have to make adjustments to your play to accommodate these fluctuations.

Session Bankroll- The total amount of money you have allocated for one specific session of play. For example, you may have a $10,000 total bankroll but you enter the casino for your playing session with only $2000 of this total bankroll. One fifth of your total bankroll is a good number to work with until you have a better understanding of how you will handle wins and losses and major bankroll fluctuations.

Unit- The smallest amount you will use for betting. NWQ recommends that you play using a unit that is equal to your total bankroll divided by 200. More conservative players might use an even smaller unit size but the maximum unit you should use will be 1/200 th of your total bankroll. I will at times discuss playing with a half unit. This situation might occur if you had a $10,000 bankroll and you were playing lxxxii

$50 units at a $25 table. If you ran into a negative count, you might lower your bet to $25, which would be a half unit.

Table Limit- The minimum size bet (not the maximum) for the table at which you are playing. Most table limits are $2, $5, $10, $15, $25, $50, $100, $200, $500 and higher. You should never find yourself playing in a game where the table limit is greater than your unit size, but you may often play at tables where the limit is smaller than your unit size.

Expected Earnings- The amount that you are expected to win over the long run if you play NWQ to it’s fullest. This means making very few playing or betting errors. We will also discuss in later chapters how to increase your expected earnings.

Element of Ruin- A measurement of your odds of losing your entire bankroll. EOR measures in percentages the chances of you going broke, while playing NWQ accurately within the guidelines of each specific betting system. None of the NWQ betting systems will set your EOR greater than 5%, which is equal to a 20 to 1 chance of your losing your entire bankroll. Also note that if you follow the advice given later in this chapter (300 to 1 Shot) you can reduce your odds of losing to even better than 20 to 1. Remember that EOR does not represent the odds of having a losing session or losing your session bankroll, but the odds of you losing your entire bankroll.

Chance of Winning- A measurement of your the odds of having a profit after a specific number of hours of play. In each of the three betting systems we cover your chances of winning after 100 hours of play, will be greater than 90% (assuming you play NWQ with a high degree of accuracy).

In chart 7-4, in the column titled “chances of winning” we will use a 50-hour of play time period. We will use this number instead of l00 so that you will have a clearer example of the amount of risk associated with each system. lxxxiii

NWQ Betting Systems NWQ uses three different betting systems X, Y and Z with X being the most conservative and Z being the most aggressive. It is up to you to choose the system that best fits your circumstances. We will review each betting system individually and discuss the reasons you might have for choosing one system over the other. I, personally, play all three of the systems that are covered here depending on the situation. You might choose one system and use it each and every time you play or you may change the system you are using, from time to time, based on game situations or bankroll fluctuations.

The key to each betting system is to make sure you do not get creative with your betting. Stay as close to the recommended betting levels as possible. If you ever find yourself in a situation where your count puts you between two betting levels, always move in the direction of the most conservative bet.

If you do choose to change systems in mid-session, do not do this in mid-shoe unless you are moving from a more aggressive system to a more conservative system (for example moving from Z to Y or X). Once a complete shoe has been dealt and the cards are being shuffled, you can then change in any direction you wish, but try not to make too many changes in your betting system during any given session.

One reason you might have for changing systems in mid session might be that your game was not being closely watched but now suddenly is being watched. Or you might have discovered a rule that changes the nature of the game.

Years ago I played a game for over an hour before realizing lxxxiv

that the casino offered surrender. No one during that entire time ever surrendered and it was not printed on the table anywhere. Once I discovered that the game offered surrender I was able to make more aggressive plays and use a more aggressive betting system. So there very well could be a situation that comes about that offers you a chance to move to a more or less aggressive system.

As we discuss each system, remember that you will always use the TRUE COUNT and any time the count is discussed in this chapter we will be referring to the true count.

Betting System X System “X” is designed to be the most conservative of the three betting systems used in NWQ. There are three reasons you might chose to play System X. •

You are playing in a game that is less than favorable.

You have entered a game which scores low on your basic strategy and/or your card counting ranking system but there are not any better games available.

Rather than losing your opportunity to earn, you choose to play the game, but in a conservative manner.

•

You are getting a lot of “heat” from the floor people or pit boss. Your game is being watched very closely and you do not wish to tip off the floor personnel that you are counting cards, so you play this conservative betting system to keep from drawing too much attention to the way your are playing.

•

You are playing in favorable games with little heat but you would rather play with a very low EOR than trying to increase your expected earnings.

lxxxv

To get your unit size for System X, divide your total bankroll by a minimum of 200. This will be your unit size for each example given in the section. Your expected earnings for System X will be in the area of 1 ½ betting units per hour, assuming you play accurately in favorable games and you are getting at least 70 hands per hour. For example, if your betting unit is $25 you can expect to earn an average of $37 an hour. Also given the same circumstances, your EOR for System X will be in the area of 3% or a 33 to 1 chance of tapping out.

System X Betting Formula True Count

Units Bet

(Any minus count) ½ to 1 unit Between 0 and +1 1 unit Between +2 and +4 2 units Between +5 and +7 3 units Counts +8 or greater 4 units

Chart 7-1

Two Hands (two ½ unit hands) (two ½ unit hands) (two 1 unit hands) (two 1 ½ unit hands) (two 2 unit hands)

Your maximum bet when using System X is always 4 units Betting System Y System “Y” is designed to be a middle of the road system between X, the most conservative, and Z the most aggressive of the three betting systems used in NWQ. There are three reasons you might chose to play System Y. •

You wish to get a greater return than system X without the bankroll fluctuations of System Z.

•

You are moving up from system X to the more aggressive System Z and you are using Y as a transition point.

lxxxvi

•

You were using System Z in a game that changed or was discovered to be less favorable than you initially thought, so you merge into System Y in order to limit some of the risk involved with playing System Z.

To get your unit size for System Y, divide your total bankroll by a minimum of 200. This will be your unit size for each example given in this section. Your expected earnings for System Y will be in the area of 2 betting units per hour, assuming you play accurately in favorable games and you are getting at least 70 hands per hour. For example, if your betting unit is $25 you can expect to earn an average of $50 an hour. Also given the same circumstances, your EOR for System Y will be in the area of 4% or a 25 to 1 chance of tapping out.

System Y Betting Formula True Count

Units Bet

(Any minus count) ½ to 1 unit Between 0 and +1 1 unit Between +2 and +3 2 units Between +4 and +5 3 units Between +6 and +7 4 units Between +8 and +9 5 units Counts +10 or greater 6 units

Chart 7-2

Two Hands (two ½ unit hands) (two ½ unit hands) (two 1 unit hands) (two 1 ½ unit hands) (two 2 unit hands) (two 3 unit hands) (two 3 ½ unit hands)

Your maximum bet when using System Y is always 6 units Betting System Z System “Z” is the most aggressive of the three NWQ betting systems. This is the system that I use 75% of the time when playing. If you are getting too much of heat from the floor or your game is less than favorable, you will need to be less aggressive than System Z allows. But given the right lxxxvii

conditions, Z will give you the greatest overall earnings per hour. The reasons you might have for using System Z: • •

•

You are playing in a very favorable game and would like to maximize your returns.

Your card counting skills have developed to a very high level and you would like to maximize your earnings per hour. You have also learned to recognize “heat” and understand the art of making good cover bets (see chapter nine).

You are playing in a low limit game (low in comparison to your bankroll).

To get your unit size for System Z, divide your total bankroll by 200 to 300. This will be your unit size for each example given in the section. Your expected earnings for System Z will be in the area of 2 to 3 betting units per hour, assuming you play accurately in favorable games and you are getting at least 70 hands per hour. For example, if your betting unit is $25 you can expect to earn an average of $50 to $75 an hour. You will enjoy this higher return (3 betting units) once you have mastered the strategy variations in chapter eight. Your EOR for System Z will be in the area of 5% or a 20 to 1 chance of tapping out.

lxxxviii

System Z Betting Formula True Count Units Bet (Any minus count) ½ to 1 unit Zero to Plus 2 1 unit Plus 3 2 units Plus 4 3 units Plus 5 4 units Plus 6 5 units Plus 7 6 units Plus 8 7 units Greater than Plus 8 8 units

Chart 7-3

Two Hands (two ½ unit hands) (two ½ unit hands) (two 1 unit hands) (two 2 unit hands)* (two 2 unit hands) (two 3 unit hands)* (two 3 unit hands) (two 4 unit hands)* (two 4 unit hands)

Your maximum bet when using System Z is always 8 units * These are aggressive bets but fall within the 5% EOR range.

Chart 7-4 illustrates your odds of being ahead of the game after 50 hours of play using the various betting systems.

Betting Systems Overview Betting *Expected Maximum System Earnings Unit Bet X Y Z

1 ½ units 2 units 2 - 3 units

4 units 6 units 8 units

Chart 7-4

*Chances of Winning 87 % 86 % 84 %

Element Of Ruin 3% 4% 5%

* Expected earnings equals the number of betting units you will earn per hour on average.

Alpha Adjustments for Betting lxxxix

Just as with your insurance bets, your Alpha counts should also be considered when placing your regular bets.

The major difference is that when you are using the Alpha count for betting you will rely more on art than science, for two reasons. One, your Numeric count is extremely accurate for betting purposes even without Alpha adjustments. Two, because you do not lose much by making bets without Alpha adjustments, you should not risk making count errors while trying to make these adjustments. Keeping these points in mind, I will give you a couple examples of where your Alpha count might influence your betting: Example 1: You are playing a double-deck game with one deck remaining to be played. You have a true count of +4 and an Alpha count of “G”. In this situation, where one full deck remains to be played, but only one ace remains in the deck, I would not make a +4 type bet. In this case you should make a more conservative bet.

Example 2: You are playing in a four-deck game with two decks remaining to be played. You have a true count of +6 and an Alpha count of “D”. In this situation where two full decks remain to be played, yet only 4 aces have been dealt (you have a shoe that is rich with 4 additional aces), I would make a more aggressive bet than a true +6 type bet.

As your experience grows you will recognize more and more of these opportunities as they arise. These situations are more important when playing single or double deck games than they are in games using four or more decks.

But until you are skilled enough to spot and take advantage of these situations, you should follow your betting charts very strictly.

300 to 1 Shot

xc

All three of the betting systems used with NWQ are based around a 5% Element of Ruin. This puts your odds of going bust at about 20 to 1; but there is a way to reduce this chance of losing your entire bankroll to even smaller odds. If your bankroll is large enough, or the table limits you play are small enough you can use a technique I call SBA (Systematic Bankroll Adjustments).

SBA works like this: If you ever suffer a 50% drop in your total bankroll, you readjust your betting by dividing what is left of your bankroll by 200, setting a new unit size.

And, should you lose 50% of your new bankroll you would do the same once again. This practice will give you about a 300 to 1 shot of going bust. It works great with large bankrolls but you have to be willing to reduce your playing unit and play at lower limits than you have been in the past.

Some players have a hard time â&#x20AC;&#x153;moving downâ&#x20AC;? because they think of themselves as $100 or $50 limit players and they do not like to play smaller. But keep in mind that this is not about ego or looking like a high roller. You are there to make money, and even more importantly not to go out of business by losing your bankroll. As a gambler, your bankroll is your inventory. Protect this inventory with your life. Chart 7-5 illustrates what your bank and limits would look like when using SBA. Betting Systems Overview

Chart 7-5

Starting Bank

Starting Unit

1st50% SBA

$20,000

$100

$10,000

Unit 2nd 50% Size SBA $50

$5,000

Unit Size $25

Keep in mind that the odds of you ever losing even half of your total bank are 10 to 1; so there is a very good chance that you will never have to make an SBA. But one key thing you should remember whether you make a xci

bankroll adjustment or not is that you should always play more conservatively when losing.

Stop Losses Over time you will read a number of opinions, from gambling writers, as to where you should set win and lose targets. When we talk about win targets we are talking about how much you win during a session before you call it a day and stop playing. And when we talk about stop losses or loss targets, we are talking about how much you will allow yourself to lose during a single session before you stop playing.

What many people fail to understand about these targets is that they should be looked at purely for psychological reasons and not as some magical target that will allow you to win, or prevent you from losing more money.

What does all of this mean, you might ask. It simply means that you are playing with an advantage and the only time it benefits you to stop playing is when other conditions dictate you should stop playing. You should not stop playing simply because you have won or lost a set amount of money.

The reason you should not stop playing is that you still have an advantage over the house. This advantage that you enjoy is reflected over the long run. It means that the more hours you play, the more likely you are to win an amount equal to your expected earnings rate.

You might recall that in the earlier section titled Money Management Definitions, I suggested that your session bankroll be about 20% of your total bankroll. This number was used as a guide until you have an understanding of how to handle big losing sessions. But if you have an understanding of what is happening to you when you are losing, and you understand how to deal with this loss, you xcii

can go beyond this 20% mark and continue to play. But if you are losing and changes have taken place that dictate that you should stop playing, then you should call an end to the session. Some of these situations include: •

The rules of the game have changed for some reason and the game is not as favorable as it was when you first started. In this situation you should stop playing whether you are winning or losing.

•

You find yourself playing too aggressively to try to make back what you have lost.

•

You are tired and may be making mistakes in your play.

•

You are mentally hung up on the idea that you are losing.

There are other reasons that might dictate calling your losing session to an end, but keep in mind that as long as you play with an edge, the more hours you post, the better your chances of winning in the long run. At that same time though, if your heart and your mind are not in the game you should stop playing.

I have had situations where I have driven an hour and a half to Atlantic City and played only an hour. That hour may have been a winning or losing session but I ended the session after only an hour because I was not “feeling it”.

Feeling it has nothing to do with not feeling lucky because I do not believe in such things. When I say I was not “feeling it”, I mean that my mind was not in the game. I was distracted, annoyed or upset about something that prevented me from playing my “A” game.

Why should you flush money down the drain simply because you have driven so far to play? This time would be better spent in other ways. For example, you might want to xciii

scout out other games in town as described in chapter nine.

Or maybe playing another table or casino will allow you to clear your mind. At times the thing that annoyed me most would be something that was unique to one table (a drunk, a smoker, someone that is rude to the dealer etc). If that happens, you can simply go to another table or casino. But there have been times in Atlantic City when there was only one game worth playing because of unfavorable rules in every other casino. If this should happen, you should consider driving back home and saving a few dollars rather than playing a bad game.

Win Targets Win targets are much like stop losses when you are playing with an edge over the house. You have to look at yourself the same way the casinos looks at themselves. Do they close the doors and call it a day because they have made enough money for that day? Of course they do not. Why should you set limits on your wins? There are a few reasons you may want to set limits on a winning session, but they have nothing to do with how much you have won.

•

The game has changed and it is not advantageous to play any longer.

•

You are tired and you are starting to make mistakes.

•

Your mind is not on the game even though you are winning.

•

You are getting too much heat from the floor. You will learn more about playing with heat in chapter nine.

xciv

â&#x20AC;˘

You have suffered some losing sessions recently and would like to post a win simply for psychological reasons. See the inter game of blackjack in chapter fifteen.

Chapter Seven Test In this test you will need to answer questions relating to money management. Many of the answers can be found in the charts presented in this chapter. You should try to answer the questions without referencing these charts because mastering the information in the charts will better equip you to make adjustments on the fly, during real world play. If you fail to score 100% correct on this test, you should review the information in this chapter and retake the test before going on to future chapters.

Chapter Seven Test Questions (Write your answers to the questions on a separate sheet of paper. Do not write your answers in the book because this will not allow you to retake the test later without clues as to the answers.)

1) If you are playing two hands at a time, how much more can you bet without taking on any additional risk? (5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 50%) 2) What is the minimum number you should divide your total bankroll by when determining your unit size?

(50, 75, 100, 200, 300) 3) If you are playing with a 5% element of ruin, what are your chances of losing your entire bankroll?

(5 to 1, 10 to 1, 20 to 1, 40 to 1) xcv

4) You are using system Z betting, and you have a true count of +3, how many units should you bet? (1 unit, 2 units, 3 units, 4 units) 5) Which of the three betting systems will enjoy the largest expected earnings? (X, Y, Z) 6) Which of the three betting systems will you see the greatest fluctuations in your bankroll? (X, Y, Z) 7) What is your maximum unit bet when using betting system Y? (3 units, 4 units, 5 units, 6 units) 8) You are using betting system Y and you have a true count of +8, how many units should you bet?

(4, 5, 6, 7, 8) The answers to these questions can be found on the next page.

xcvi

Answers to Chapter Seven Test Questions 1) When playing two hands you can bet FIFTEEN PERCENT more than a one hand bet without taking on additional risk.

2) The minimum number you should divide your total bankroll by when determining your unit size is 200.

3) When you are playing with a 5% EOR, your chances of losing your entire bankroll are 20 to 1.

4) When using system Z betting, you should bet TWO UNITS with a true count of +3.

5) SYSTEM Z will show you the greatest expected earnings.

6) Besides showing the greatest expected earnings, SYSTEM Z will also show you the greatest fluctuations in your bankroll.

7) When using system Y betting, your maximum bet will be SIX UNITS. 8) If you are using betting system Y and you have a true count of +8, your bet will be FIVE UNITS.

xcvii

NOTES

xcviii

Chapter Eight Advanced Playing Strategy Strategy Variations (Variations to Basic Strategy) As you learned in chapter three, there is a specific way to play every hand that can possibly be dealt to you at a blackjack table. This is called basic strategy. But by reaching this point in the NWQ system, you are a skilled card counter and therefore you can make variations to the standard basic strategy based on the current true count.

These variations are a very powerful tool when it comes to increasing your edge over the house. In fact, other than counting cards and changing the size of your bets based on the true count, playing variations will be the most powerful tool in your arsenal. How powerful is the use of this information? Well, if you are playing with an edge of 1.5%, the use of strategy variations (without errors being made) will increase your edge to as much as 2%. This is an increase in your earnings per hour of over 30% versus playing without strategy variations. If you are a $25.00 unit player, using System Z betting and earning $50.00 per hour, strategy variations will take your average earnings per hour to the area of $75.00 per hour.

How Strategy Variations Work As we discuss strategy variations, remember that you will always use the TRUE COUNT and any time the count is xcix

discussed in this chapter we will be referring to the true count.

With chart 8-1 you will see what appears to be a basic strategy chart. Instead of the hit, stand, double and split options, you will find numbers in some places. These numbers represent the true count at which you will no longer play the hand as described in basic strategy. If there is nothing in the box you should play the hand the same way all the time (basic strategy). Where there is a negative number, you will be playing the hand more conservatively than basic strategy demands. For example: If you have 9 versus a dealer’s 3, you will not double but HIT if the true count is –1 or lower. Another example would be 13 versus dealer’s 3.

With this hand you would HIT and not stand whenever your true count was –2 or lower. Note that you will hit and not double more often with negative counts.

Where there is a positive number you will play more aggressively then basic strategy demands. For example: If you have 8 versus a dealer’s 6 you will DOUBLE instead of hit with a true count of +2 or higher. Another example would be to STAND with 16 versus a dealer’s X if your true count was +1 or higher. Note that you will stand and double more with positive counts.

It is important that you learn the strategy variations charts and play as close to perfect as possible. Many players try to “feel” their way around strategy variations. For example, they know that they should double more so they say to themselves “I have a true count of +3 so I will double on 10 versus the dealer’s ace.” The problem is that they needed a true count of +4 for this bet to be correct. So make sure you actually learn the numbers in the chart before you try to use them in actual play.

Below each chart I will list the most important variations so that you will know which ones to learn first. If you cannot manage to memorize all of them, remember this list of key numbers first.

Learning the Numbers c

I have found that the best way to learn the numbers in the strategy variation charts is to make flash cards. You can do this by buying some index cards and writing the hand on one side of the card. For example: A,6 vs. dealerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 2. And on the other side you write +1. Review your flash cards over and over again, especially right before a trip to the casino.

Remember that you are striving for perfection. If you make errors in this area it is no more beneficial to you than playing a simple basic strategy; so if you are ever in doubt as to the correct play, always go back to your basic strategy.

Something that might aid you in learning the charts is to note that there are no variations that use the numbers 3 or 5. Also there is only one variation that uses a number greater then 5 and that is 16 versus a dealer up card of 9.

ci

STRATEGY VARIATIONS (WITHOUT SURRENDER) 2 3 17 16 15 14 13 -1 -2 12 +4 +2

4

2 11 10 9 +2 8

4

A,8 A,7 A,6 A,5 A,4 A,3 A,2

6

7

8

+6

5

6

-1

7

+1 +4

8

9

X A -4 +1 +4 +4

7

8

9

X

A

7

8

9

X

A

+4 +4 +2

2

3

+2 +1

-4

4

5 6 +1 +1

+4

+4 2

X,X 9,9 8,8 7,7 6,6 5,5 4,4 3,3 2,2

3

5

Chart 8-1 9 X A

3

4

5

6

+4

-6 -1

cii

A,A With 4,4 vs. a dealerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 5 and 6 you will Split when double after split is allowed, otherwise you will play your hand as 8 and double down.

Take insurance with counts greater than a true +2

Chart 8-1 Key Hands Below you will find a list of the most important hands on the strategy variations chart. These are the hands that you should learn first when you are trying to memorize chart 8-1. Note that most of the key hands are double down and split hands. The reason is simple. These are the hands where you will be putting the most money into action; so making an error with these hands can be very costly.

16 vs.10: Outside of the double down and split hands, this is your most important hand. This hand will come up more than any of the double or split hands, so it is very important that you understand that you should stand on 16 any time you are against a X and have a true count of +1 or higher.

11 vs. Ace: Many players fear this hand. The reality is that in this situation the dealerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s ace is not as powerful as your 11. If the dealer has blackjack your double down bet is not going to be valid so that is not a concern. Also, since the dealer must hit until they get 17, there are more cards that can hurt the dealer than can hurt you. For example, you double down and draw a 5, you have 16 and a very bad hand, but you will not be taking another card. If the dealer turns over the very same hand, she must take a hit and unless one of four cards comes (2,3,4,5) on her hit, she will be forced to hit again.

10 vs. X: This is an aggressive play, much more aggressive than 11 vs. ace. The aggressive nature of this play is why you need a true count of +4 or higher before it is made. But this hand can be a great moneymaker for you. Similar to 11 vs. ace, if the dealer has a card 6 or lower in the hole you are ciii

in great shape. Yet if you hit and turn a stiff, you will not be taking another hit but the dealer will have to hit again.

9 vs. 3 and 8 vs. 6: There is not much that needs to be said about these hands other than the fact these are borderline doubles downs and often misplayed by players.

A,8 vs. 5 and 6: Here you have two borderline hands that are often misplayed. To many players this looks like an aggressive move but you are actually in great shape regardless of what card comes on your double down. Even if one of the only five cards (7,6,5,4,3) that can turn your hand into a stiff does come, the chances of the dealer busting out are great. And not only are there only five cards that kill your hand (should the dealer not bust) but there are also two cards (duce and ace) that improve your hand.

An Added Bonus In chapter ten you will learn ways to disguise the fact that you are counting cards. Ironically the higher skill level involved in using strategy variations also makes you appear to be an unskilled player. When the floor is watching your game and they see you make plays such as; doubling down on 10 vs. a dealerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s ace, or not doubling down on 9 vs. a dealerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 3 they think that you are making mistakes. These are mistakes that skilled players would never make. The reason these look like amateur errors to most floor people, even those who can count cards, is that most of these people never advance to the point that they understand these variations to basic strategy.

The funny thing is that the average player who is sitting at your table will often think that you do not know what you are doing. I have actually had three or four situations where a player at the table told me that I did not play my hand correctly. Here I am sitting at a table making complex calculations in microseconds as each card hits the board, and a guy that adds up his hand on his fingers is telling me how to play. As my maturity has grown I have civ

learned to say nice things like: “Oh yea, I just had a hunch, aren’t we all here to gamble.” But what I really want to say is: “If I forgot half of what I know about this game, I would still know ten times more than you; so keep your advice to yourself” Of course lines like this will not reflect well on your image as a casual player or worse might lead to you getting barred by drawing additional attention to your play. So if this should this happen to you, just try to be nice. If you are lucky you will run into one of the many uninformed tourist who thinks that your “misplay” will cause them to lose. This is great if it leads to them leaving the table and ultimately speeding up your game.

Surrender Variations When you are playing in a game that offers the surrender option, the strategy variations become very important. There are only eighteen hands that you need to remember, but these are all of great importance. Note that 16 versus a dealer’s X or ace are the only negative numbers in chart 8-2. This means that you will surrender unless your count is below these numbers. All of the other numbers are positive numbers stating that you will surrender anytime your true count is equal to or greater than that number.

cv

STRATEGY VARIATIONS (SURRENDER) Chart 8-2 7

16 15 14 13 8,8 7,7 7

8

9

X

+8 +8 +8

+1 +4 +8 +8

-4 +1 +4 +6 +4 +1

+2

Ace -2 +2 +6

+2

Chart 8-2 Key Hands Unlike the key hands in chart 8-1 that are often important because you are putting more money into play, the key hands in chart 8-2 are important because of the frequency with which you will see the hands.

16 vs. 9 and 15 vs. X: These hands are important because they are common situations. Not common just because of the cards you are holding but also because of the low count needed to make a variation play. Any of the +1 hands are important to learn because your true count will range from â&#x20AC;&#x201C;2 to +2 about 75% of the time.

7,7 vs. 10: If you have learned to think like a skilled player, you will ask the question, why would 7,7 be played differently than 14 when I was not going to split my 7s anyway? Note that 14 surrenders at +4 and with 7,7 you only need a count of +1. The reason you will surrender with 7,7 cvi

more often than other hands totaling 14 is because with 7,7 two of the cards that you need to improve your hand are already in your hand. This is easier to understand if you think in terms of playing with a single-deck. If you hold 7,7 and you are going to hit your hand, two of the 4 most important cards for your hand are already dead. In fact they are in your hand. Because of this fact an advanced play for you to make would be to surrender any 14 at +1 if there are two or more other 7s already in play, even if they are in other peoplesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; hand.

Chapter Eight Test Learning, memorizing and using strategy variations can be the most difficult part of any card counting system.

NWQ is no different in that respect. Even without the use of strategy variations you will be playing with enough of an edge to be a consistent winner at the blackjack tables. But strategy variations will take you to the next level.

If you are playing only at low limit tables ($3, $5, $10) you might choose not to bother learning the strategy variations. But if you wish to become a complete player and if you are going to play at higher limits, strategy variations will be an important part of your game.

The answers to the chapter eight test questions can be found in chart 8-1, but you should attempt to answer the questions without the use of the charts. This means learning the numbers in the chart before taking the test. Unlike all of the tests in earlier chapters, I am not going to hold you to 100% correct answers before advancing through the book.

The reason I will give you a pass on this test is because it could take you many days to master the information in charts 8-1 and 8-2. Also the fact that you can be a winning player without the use of strategy variations, a score of less than 100% should not prevent you from advancing.

cvii

Chapter Eight Test Questions (Write your answers to the questions on a separate sheet of paper. Do not write your answers in the book because this will not allow you to retake the test later without clues as to the answers. All of the questions below assume that you are in a game that does not offer the surrender option.)

1) You have a true count of zero, your hand is 4,4 and the dealer’s up card is a 6. The game allows you to double down after splitting. How should you play your hand? (H S P D U) 2) You have a true count of +4 and a hand of 5,5. The dealer’s up card is an ace. How should you play your hand? (H S P D U) 3) You have a true count of +2 and a hand of 7,8. The dealer’s up card is a king. How should you play your hand? (H S P D U) 4) You have a true count of +3 and a hand of 4,4. The dealer’s up card is a 2. How should you play your hand? (H S P D U) 5) You have a true count of +1 and a hand of 5,8. The dealer’s up card is a 3. How should you play your hand? (H S P D U) 6) You have a true count of +5 and a hand of 9,9. The dealer’s up card is a 7. How should you play your hand? (H S P D U) cviii

7) You have a true count of +2 and a hand of 9,9. The dealer’s up card is a 7. How should you play your hand? (H S P D U) 8) You have a true count of +4 and a hand of 3,6. The dealer’s up card is a 7. How should you play your hand? (H S P D U) 9) You have a true count of +7 and a hand of X,X. The dealer’s up card is a 6. How should you play your hand? (H S P D U) 10) You have a true count of +4 and a hand of 9,3. The dealer’s up card is a 2. How should you play your hand? (H S P D U) The answers to these questions can be found on the next page.

cix

Answers to Chapter Eight Test Questions 1) With a hand of 4,4 you will SPLIT against a dealer’s 6 unless the true count is –1 or lower.

2) With a true count of +4 you will DOUBLE with a hand of 5,5 or any hand totaling 10, even against a dealer’s ace. You will never split two fives regardless of the count.

3) With a true count of +2 you would HIT with a hand totaling 15 vs. a dealers X. If your true count were +4 or greater, you would stand.

4) With a true count of +3 you would HIT with 44 vs. a dealer’s up card of 2. In fact you will never split or double 4,4 vs. any cards other than a dealer’s 5 or 6.

5) With a true count of +1, you would play your hand totaling 13 vs. a dealer’s 3 the same way you would normally and STAND. If your true count were –2 or lower, you would hit.

6) With a true count of +5 you would SPLIT your hand of 9,9 vs. a dealer’s up card of 7. You only need a count of true +4 before splitting these cards vs. a 7.

7) This is the same hand you have in question six, but this time your true count is +2. In this case you will STAND with your hand of 9,9. Vs. 7.

cx

8) With a hand totaling 9, you will DOUBLE vs. a dealerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 7 and a true count of +4.

9) With a true count of +7 and a hand of X,X you will STAND. In fact you will never split two cards valued as 10s. Some counting systems recommend splitting tens with extremely high counts. NWQ recommends against this practice for two reasons. One, even with the highest of counts, the act of breaking up the 2 nd best possible hand you can get is a risky play. One of the features of NWQ is to keep you away from such risk. The other reason not to make this play is that it draws far too much attention from the floor people.

10) With a count of +4 you will STAND with a hand equaling 12 vs. a dealerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 2.

cxi

cxii

NOTES

cxiii

Chapter Nine Playing in the Real World Casino Play Sitting at your kitchen table and learning to count cards is nothing compared to playing in the real world. You may be able to run down decks in twenty five seconds, play basic strategy and know all of the strategy variations at home, and totally fall apart when it comes time to play the real game. There are many distractions in a casino and you need to learn how to deal with these distractions. Before ever playing at higher limits, you should take a practice trip and play a low limit game.

When you make this low limit practice trip, you may need to play a less favorable game in order to find a low limit game. Many of the lower limit games have less favorable rules or a greater number of decks in use than the higher level games that you might ultimately play. This is fine because your practice trip or trips are not about trying to make money. These are sessions where you are going to work on your skills and make sure you can not only keep up with the dealers, but play without making errors as well.

Once you have learned to do this consistently you will be ready to play at your regular limits, but until then you should put in workouts at the lower limits. Practice sessions are a good idea even if you have acquired great skills over time but have been away from the game for a while. Just like anything else, you will play better when you have put in some practice time.

cxiv

Dealing with Your Surroundings You may put in some practice time and then find out weeks later that there are things that you have never thought about before, that seem to get in the way of you playing well.

It might be that you do not deal well with having drunks, smokers or talkative people at your table After over twenty years counting cards, there could be a pink elephant dancing on the table and it would not cause me to make errors. But there are tables that I sometimes hate to play. For example, if there are more than two smokers at my table, I usually will get up and find a new game. If there is a drunk that is making a scene or some loud mouth yelling at the dealer or swearing every time he loses a hand, I will usually find a new game.

You might find that these things do not bother you, or maybe they bother you too much. It seems silly but one of the things that bother me most is a dealer that “talks” the game. What I mean by this is a dealer that after a hand is played has to comment about the hand. They say things like, “Oh, if she took a hit, I would have busted” or “Why didn’t you double down on your ten?” Even worse are dealers who give advice. Even when the player asks the dealer, it bothers me. I can say with great confidence that no less than 50% of the time I have heard dealers advise players the advice has been incorrect. This is not because the dealer intentionally gave misinformation, because most of the dealers I know are really nice people who want the players to win. They give bad info because many of them are bad players. Dealers who play cards on their time off are some of the biggest donors to the bottom line of casinos all over Atlantic City, Las Vegas and casinos around the world. Just because someone spends forty hours a week dealing cards does not mean they know the correct way to play hands. All they need to know to do their jobs is how to play their own hand, which is simply “Hit until you have 17 or more.” Even though there are a few dealers who truly understand how to pay the game properly, there seem to be many more who do not. cxv

Tipping While we are on the subject of dealers, I will tell you something that I tell all of my students. TIP your dealers.

They have a very difficult job and they cannot change tables when the chain smoker or drunk customer shows up. They have to deal with people yelling at them all day, blaming them for losses etc. I have never seen a group of people who get more verbally abused at work than dealers; not to mention the pressure they are under not to make errors.

Think about this: You win a hand and the dealer pays you out in two black ($100) chips instead of red ($5.00) chips. This is recorded on camera and may give the impression you are in cahoots. If this should happen (it did happen to me once and nobody knew it but me) do as I did and tell the dealer about her error and give the money back.

This is even better than a big tip because it might save her job.

How much should you tip? First remember how much you are expected to earn per hour before coming up with any numbers. If you play $25 or $50 units and your expected earnings are in the $75 range, tipping $5 every hour or so will not hurt you. But if you are playing $5 units and you tip $5 an hour, you are giving almost 50% of your earnings to the dealer. Some people tip the dealer after they have just won a big hand, but I like to tip the dealers early in our time together.

Use your own judgment based on what I have told you so far, but be careful not to under or over tip. I know many players who will give the dealer $5.00 after they have won a $100 bet. Well this is 5% of your winnings and that is 200% more than the edge you have over the house. So think in terms of time when it comes to tipping, and keep good track of how much you have given your dealers. We want to take care of the dealers without going broke doing so.

cxvi

Scouting Games In chapters four and five you learned how to score a game for playability. Once you have played for some time you will be able to look at a game and quickly know whether the game is favorable for play or not. It is important that you become good at this because half your battle as a skilled player is to find good games. In some areas of the country you will find good games everywhere you look. Las Vegas has some outstanding and very favorable games. Most likely this is because of the number of games that are available.

Because of competition, there is a need to have favorable games. This is also why you find some of the best odds on crap tables and slot machines in Vegas.

My recommendation is to know where the good and bad games are before you go out to play. There are two ways to do this, one; you can scout the games by walking thought the casinos in your areas making notes. How many decks are in use? How closely are the games watched? What are the limits? When are the slow and busy times? What rules are in use at the casino, etc? Keep good notes, update those notes and refer to them often.

The other way to get information on games is to refer to another information source. For example, my web site gives updated information on games in Las Vegas, Atlantic City and occasionally other areas of the country. You will find information on where some of the best games are, when the best times to play might be and who the floor people are that you might need to watch out for when you are playing.

You can find this information at www.NWQG.com Playing with OPM OPM stands for “Other People’s Money”, and there are a couple of ways you could end up playing with OPM. One, you might borrow money, using a credit line or a loan from another individual. The other is to have someone “stake” you, meaning that they put up the money and you cxvii

play the game, extracting a percentage of the winnings at the end. We will look at playing with borrowed money first. If you get a credit line at a casino and use this credit line to play blackjack, you are not really using other peopleâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s money. It is in effect a short term, no interest loan. Using credit lines have pluses and minuses. On the plus side, if you are playing high limits, $50, $100 tables and higher, you could use your credit line instead of carrying tens of thousands of dollars round with you. Also I have found that if you are playing with a credit line, the service you get from the casino staff tends to be a little bit better. But this last idea could all be in my mind.

The negative side of playing with a credit line would be you are drawing additional attention to yourself when you sit down to play. Also, it prevents you from playing with an alias. Many professionals often get comp cards or playerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s cards with fake names. Also keep in mind that when you play with a credit line, you do have to pay the money back.

So if you are playing on a short bankroll, or you do not already have the money in the bank that the casino is giving you on your credit line, do not borrow from them to play.

These same rules apply to borrowing money from someone else or borrowing from a credit card to play. Do it only out of convenience, not as a tool to leverage your borrowing power in order to play cards.

The other type of OPM is where you have someone who wants to stake you, putting up the cash while you play.

As a professional blackjack player, I tend to stay away from these situations because the only reason for me to have someone stake me would be so that I could play in higher limit games than usual. The reality is that there really are not that many good games at limits higher than where I currently play. On the other hand, as a poker player, I often have people who want to stake me to play a higher limit game, and I will usually accept if the person is someone that I like.

With most of these arrangements, the player would get 50% and the person putting up the cash (who we will call the investor) would get the other 50%. But the investor takes cxviii

on 100% of the risk. There are other arrangements that can be made, but this is a starting point for many of these situations. I have also had people put up half of the money while I play for them, where we both take on 50% of the risk. Whatever arrangement you make, you should be careful and play only with the understanding that the investor understands the risk. You might think that you will feel greater pressure to win if someone else is putting up his or her cash. If you find that this keeps you from playing your â&#x20AC;&#x153;Aâ&#x20AC;? game, then you should not do it. But I find that I play even better when someone elseâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s money is at stake.

cxix

NOTES

cxx

Chapter Ten How Not to Get Barred They Will Not Like You In case you did not know this before, or you have not figured it out from the first nine chapters, the casinos do not like card counters. In fact they spend tens and in some cases hundreds of thousands of dollars to protect themselves from card counters. What are some of the steps they take to protect themselves from you?

•

The casinos make rule changes that make the game less favorable for card counters. Some of these rules include using more decks, automatic shuffle machines, etc.

•

The casinos teach their staff (pit bosses and floor people, rarely dealers) to spot card counters. This does not mean that they all learn to count cards, but they learn to look for the large bet swings that go along with counting cards.

•

The casinos watch the game from the “eye in the sky”, (the hidden cameras that are trained on every table) and look for indications that someone is counting cards.

•

If you are suspected of counting cards, they will often shuffle the deck early, or tell the dealer to only deal 50% of the shoe.

cxxi

•

I have also been in games in Atlantic City where the pit bosses lowered the table limit to keep me from making larger bets on positive counts. (Atlantic City cannot bar you for counting cards so they use many other techniques to reduce your advantage).

•

And of course, if you are a known card counter, you may get barred from playing blackjack in some casinos. As mentioned above, Atlantic City does not bar counters, but the rules they put in place equate to being barred. The casinos keep your picture on file and alert the staff when you sit down to play. I often play at casinos where I have previously been barred, and I will tell you how later in this chapter.

Staying in Business Now that you know that the casinos do not like card counters and some of the techniques used to neutralize your advantages, lets look at how to overcome some of these obstacles. If you get barred from all of the favorable games in your area, you will be out of business. So the number one way to overcome anything the casino might do to slow you down, is to never be identified as a card counter in the first place. Here we will examine ways to stay off of the “counter list” and what to do if you end up on this list.

Your Look Your first step to not being labeled as a potential card counter is to not look like a card counter. But what does a card counter look like? Well the stereotypical model they will be looking for is: A white male, in his early 20s to late 40s, playing alone (no wife or girlfriend sitting with him) and if the wife is there, she is not playing. He does not drink and if he does drink he tends to nurse his drink. He is paying a lot of attention to the game and tends not to talk much, not cxxii

even to the wife or girlfriend who is sitting with him. He does not get very upset when he loses and does not get overly excited when he wins.

So what do you do to keep from looking like this guy? If you are not a white male in his early 20s to late 40s, you have a good start. It is very rare for a woman or a minority to be thought of as a counter. It does happen, but it usually takes the casinos a bit longer to spot these people. Also you should follow these rules to help prevent detection when you are playing: •

Play with a companion sitting at your table. If they are going to play, give them some basic rules to follow and have them make small bets so as to not lose the money that you are earning.

•

Order virgin drinks and actually drink them.

•

Get your skills to the point where you can hold down conversations and count without errors while you play.

•

Avoid looking too interested in the hands of the other players.

•

Dress like a tourist.

•

Show emotion when you win or lose a big hand, this is what most gamblers do and you should as well.

Your Play We talked about not looking like a counter, but how should you play in order to not look like a card counter. One thing you should know is that even when you do not think you are being watched, you are being watched. But the eye in the sky cannot watch and count down your game the entire cxxiii

time you are playing unless they have reason to suspect you.

So lets put them off of your trail early so that you can get down to business.

With many of the people who are semi-trained to watch out for card counters, the only thing they know is to look for wide swings in betting. For this reason it is a good idea to flat bet (betting the same thing on every hand) or bet the first full shoe or first 15 minutes within a 2 unit range.

Many casinos (we list some of them on the web site from time to time) are not good at spotting counters early from the eye in the sky, and therefore you can play your usual game off the top unless the floor person is watching closely.

Another tactic you should use is called “cover betting.” Cover betting means that any time you think your game is being watched you might want to make bets that do not coincide with the actual count. For example, instead of betting one unit at the start of a freshly shuffled deck (as most card counters tend to do), you can bet two or even three units off the top. If you are playing a game that ranked zero or higher on the scorecard in chapter four, you have an edge over the house even with a count of zero, so you can bet three units at the start of the deal without giving up too much in the long run. Cover betting might also include keeping away from your larger bets when you have high counts.

These are things that you will only do when you feel your game is being watched and you need to camouflage your true skills. Some things that you should not do in order to “cover” are continue to make larger bets than the count allows, and not taking insurance when you should be taking insurance.

On the other hand, a good “cover” bet would be to take insurance on a negative count, because here you have a small bet out and your insurance bet will be relatively small. So in this case you are not giving up as much as you would by not taking insurance when you have a larger bet out.

Also do not wait until the end of the shoe to make your larger bets, but try to avoid swings of greater than 2 units. For example if you win a 2-unit bet and the true count jumped up to +7, do not increase your bet to 6 units. cxxiv

You should press your bet (take the winnings and stack them on top of your original bet) making it 4 units and then if the count remains high, press it again making your bet 6 to 8 units. Real gamblers press bets all the time and this will draw less attention than simply adding a bunch of chips to your bet. Also try not to lower your bet too quickly. If you lose a hand, you can go from 8 units to ½ unit without much of a problem. But if you win a larger bet and then drop down to ½ or 1 unit, you might draw some attention. If your count drops greatly after you have just won a large bet, cut your bet in half and then half again if you win. And if you lose a hand, feel free to get back on track with your true betting formula.

As we discussed earlier, the strategy variations found in chapter eight are also another way to camouflage your skills. Because even some of the best card counting floor people do not understand how to use strategy variations, when you use them in front of these people, you appear to be making playing errors.

Playing with Heat There will be times that you will be suspected of being a card counter and you will know that you have been identified. In most cases you will know that this has happened because changes are occurring all around you. You might notice the floor person watching your game a little more closely than before. In many cases another floor person might even join the first floor person in watching your game.

Sometimes the floor person may suddenly engage you in conversation. “Hi, where are you from? Are you staying at our casino? How long are you going to be in town? Have you seen any shows while in town?” You might notice the floor people talking quietly among themselves and looking your way. They might even tell the dealer to deal only ½ the shoe. They will do this by whispering to the dealer and you will notice that suddenly the penetration is not what it was when you first sat down. All of these activities fall under the cxxv

heading, “heat.” One thing that I have noticed about floor people, even the ones that are good at spotting card counters, is that they are not very good at not revealing the fact that they suspect you of counting cards. I think one of the reasons this occurs is they are hoping that you will just pack up and go and they will not have to come over and bar you from playing. I do not think that many floor people and pit bosses enjoy having to do this at all.

I did have one woman who literally ran to boot me out of the Flamingo recently. I had been barred from playing blackjack (I can still play other games) at the Flamingo over two years ago but have played there about six times since then. I was playing in disguise for almost an hour one day, when a shift supervisor came into the pit where I was playing. She looked at me from across the room and then came closer. She stood less than one foot away from me and looked into my eyes. Then she made her way over to the desk in the middle of the pit. I stood up so that I could see what she was doing, as she opened a folder with color-copied pictures in it. When I saw this I got up with a hand full of chips and made my way quickly to the cashier. Before I could get to the cage I saw this woman out of the corner of my eye running out of the pit and towards me. In her defense, I can walk very quickly. She yelled out my name, “Bryan, Bryan…” but I just kept walking until she caught up with me. She looked me dead in the eye and said, “You can’t play blackjack here any more,” and then she walked away as quickly as she pursued me.

In 90% of these cases where you feel you are a suspect, you should get up and leave the game. I do have a rule that applies to this situation as well as other situations where I am about to end my session. I never leave a positive shoe. If the true count is +2 or higher, I will not end my session for any reason, until the count drops or the cards are shuffled. This is not a rule that you have to live by, but positive decks are what counters live for, so leaving one behind is something that I do not do very often. The bottom cxxvi

line is, you want to get out of this overly watched game and find another game to play.

The other 10% of the time are situations where you have a good reason to play with heat. Playing with heat simply means that you are playing the game, knowing that you may have been identified as a card counter but you have good reason to stay. One reason you might need to stay and not leave the game is that this is the only game in town. Or maybe it is the only beatable game in town. If you are playing in a town such as Atlantic City where barring of card counters is not allowed, you might have to play with restrictions if you choose to keep playing. Some of these restrictions include, not being allowed to play more than one hand at a time or not being allowed to bet over a set amount before the floor tells the dealer to shuffle. They will never tell you what this amount is and it might change depending on the limit you are playing and who else is playing at your table. But the most common tactic is when the casino has the dealer deal only 50% of the cards before shuffling again.

Because most of your advantages come at the end of the shoe this can be a major obstacle for you to overcome.

So what should you do if you might be suspected of card counting but you cannot leave the game? Well, you will have to play differently than you would normally play. This not only includes cover bets but also might include making flat bets or 1 to 2 unit bets for an hour or so. It might also mean making some intentional playing errors. Keep in mind that if you are making minimum bets (as you should do if you are being watched too closely) you can make certain “misplays” that will not cost you too much in the long run.

These plays include: •

Standing on 16 vs. a dealer’s 10

•

Not doubling on some soft hands

cxxvii

â&#x20AC;˘

Failing to split aces (this will really make you look like an unknowledgeable player, yet the lost advantage you experience from not splitting will be minimal).

There have been times when I have played for hours at a time in certain casinos by altering my play when I see the heat starting to build. But in most cases you should limit your sessions to an hour or two when there are other games in town that you can play.

The Claridge In the late 80s, The Claridge in Atlantic City had the absolute, most favorable game for card counters on the east coast. The game was four decks with good penetration, the dealer did not hit soft 17 and surrender was offered. Also, you could double down after splits and double on any hand.

And on top of all of this there was a shuffle you could track (see chapter twelve).

So here you have a small casino in a town that, at the time had less than ten casinos, and they had the only favorable game. And the game was extremely favorable. As a result, every card counter in the area, including myself, showed up at the Claridge each day to beat up on this game.

Also keep in mind that Atlantic City could not bar card counters. There were times that I would play at a table where there were three or four other card counters playing. There were many counters who simply back count and then jumped in the game when the count shot up. I only did this on one occasion and only as a test. I stood between two tables and counted down the decks on each game and then I sat down at the first table to have a count jump to an attractive level. But most of the time I would sit down and play off the top. This was the only way to assure that you would have a seat, because this was a time when almost every blackjack table in Atlantic City was full, all of the time. cxxviii

I was one of the twenty to thirty (just my guess) regular card counters that the Claridge had identified, and they would go through great means to watch my game. Any time I sat at a table, they would put a floor person there to watch the entire game. Any time my bet exceeded $100, they would tell the dealer to shuffle. The other thing they would do is always deal with a 50% penetration when I was playing. But there was one catch to the penetration issue.

They were dealing four decks. They had to place the cut card (the yellow or orange card that tells the dealer when to shuffle) at the 50% mark or the 75% mark before putting the cards in the shoe. If I was not at the table, they would put the card at 75%, if I was at the table they would put it at 50%. So I made an art out of taking a seat right after the card went into the dealer’s shoe. What this means is that the floor would have to verbally tell the dealer to shuffle if they did not want me to get to the latter parts of the deck. It also meant that they would have to watch the game the entire time, waiting for my big bets to come out.

My estimation is that the Claridge lost many thousands of dollars more from the misuse of manpower and lost hands than the actual dollars the other card counters and I took from them. What I mean by misused manpower is all of the time spent watching over these games and the extra staff that was needed to spot and deal with card counters.

The other losses came from all of the hands of blackjack that were never dealt to the thousands of bad players who were sitting at these tables over time and hands never dealt because so much time was spent shuffling the cards.

I had three very good friends that worked at the Claridge at this time. Even though I was a known card counter, I was liked because I always tipped the dealers well and I was always nice to everyone there. I remember bragging, rightfully so, to each of my friends, (one of them was on the Claridge Count Team, (a group of floor people and pit bosses assigned the task of dealing with card counters) that “I Bryan Mitchell controlled the shuffle at the Claridge.” My friends would ask me “How is this the case?” cxxix

And I would tell them, “If I want to play out the shoe, I simply keep my bets under $100 and the floor people do not tell the dealer to shuffle. Or I could play with a partner unknown to the casino and have my partner make the large bet on the high counts sparked by a signal I give them. If I had a negative shoe and wanted the dealer to shuffle, I would simply place a $200 bet and they would be told to shuffle the cards, giving me a fresh deck and a zero count.” This was a very cocky statement to make (I was twenty three years old and even more cocky than I am today) but the statement was true. The point being, the Claridge, with the right guidance could have avoided the problems the counters were giving them and at the same time benefited from the thousands of bad players who came in to their casino every day of the week.

Spotting Counters A funny thing is that with all of the efforts the casinos put into place to spot counters, they miss some of the best tells. I spot other counter at the tables all the time. Most times I can spot them within the first five minutes that I have been watching them. Many of the things that give them away are not things related to bet size or the way they play. Small eye movements, blinks at certain times, and posture often tip me off that I am watching a counter. I think that playing poker has trained me to recognize these subtle giveaways.

The good news is that most casino floor people are not aware of these things and you are not likely to get barred without sending some much larger clues.

Team Play Another way to lower your chance of getting barred is to form a card counting team. The ideas around forming and operating a card counting team could fill a book, but I will cover some of the basics in chapter twelve, “Increasing Expected Earnings.” For now, make a mental note that one cxxx

way to reduce your chances of getting barred includes team play.

cxxxi

NOTES

cxxxii

Chapter Eleven Single Vs. Multi Deck Play No Choices In some parts of the country or in some casinos outside the US, you may not have a choice of games. Many times there will be a four, six or eight-deck game and that is all you will be able to find. As of this writing (early 2003) there are only two games in Atlantic City, six and eight-deck games. The six-deck games tend to be found in the high limit pits, (as if high rollers will not tolerate playing eight-deck games). The rest of the casino floor is covered with eightdeck games regardless of the table limits. Occasionally a casino will introduce a four-deck game, but it tends to not last very long.

In areas such as Las Vegas, you will find casinos using one, two, four, six and eight decks. As we discussed in earlier chapters, the fewer decks in use, the better it is for the skilled card counter. But there are exceptions to this rule that we will look at one at a time.

Single-Deck There are a number of single-deck games in Las Vegas these days. Some of these games have extreme limitations and rule changes that put them in the not playable category. For example, the casinos usually deal only about 50% of the cards in the single-deck games. They also pay out only 6 to 5 to a player who is dealt a blackjack. With these rules in effect this single-deck game is not worth your time.

At best you will be playing even with the house in the long run. For unskilled players or basic strategy players, this is simply a sucker game. Why any non-counting player would cxxxiii

play in these games will remain a mystery to me. It certainly speaks to the fact that, “People don’t know, what they don’t know.”

Many other single-deck games that do have legitimate rules may be playable, but there is another problem with these games. These games are watched so closely that your chances of getting barred increase substantially. In fact, many of these single-deck games seem to be set up to lure every card counters to the same tables, so that the casino can identify them. You will need to be very selective in what single-deck games you choose to play if you play any at all. I spend less than 10% of my playing time in single-deck games even though I could post some substantial wins. Winning a lot of money in a session will not do you any good if you get barred and won’t be able to play again.

Double-Deck This is where you will find me sitting 90% of the time. Playing with two decks is by far my favorite game. If you do your homework you will often find double-deck games that have a good set of rules and great penetration.

Where many of these games are watched closely, it’s nothing compared to the single-deck games. Double-deck also has obvious advantages over multi deck (more than 2 deck) games, such as your true count being more accurately reflected. There also might be some advantages that you may have overlooked. For starters, with double deck you get a large number of hands per hours because two decks can be shuffled much faster then six decks. Also you can control the game quite a bit with a double-deck game. By this I mean that you can “run the deck out” if you have a negative count.

You can do this by spreading your bet to 3 small bets covering 3 hands, eating up cards quickly to get to a new shuffle. Also because double-deck games are not dealt out of a shoe, you can speed the dealer up more in a double-deck game (when you are head up) because most dealers deal cxxxiv

faster with the deck in their hand than they do out of a shoe.

For these and other reasons, when given a choice I will be found playing double- deck blackjack.

Multi Deck Games If you find yourself playing in four, six or eight-deck games because there are no other choices, there are certain advantages you will enjoy. First, multi deck games are not watched as closely as single and double-deck games, so your chances of being spotted as a card counter are reduced. Also you will not have to make as many cover bets and will not have to make playing errors to camouflage your play.

Another advantage with multi deck play is that you can make larger bet swings without drawing too much attention. All of this does not mean that you will never get caught counting in a six or eight-deck game, it only means that your chances of being caught are reduced.

I have beaten eight-deck games over and over again in Atlantic City without any heat. This happens because the casinos don’t think that counters can make money at these games, so they do not watch them very closely. I have played with betting spreads as much as 16 to 1. Yes, my big bet was 16 times larger than my smallest (negative count) bet. With a spread like this and good counting skills, in the long run, you can run all over just about any game that has favorable rules.

As described in chart 7-3, I start out playing two hands of $25.00 each off the top. If the count drops to negative, I drop my bet to one hand of $25.00. On max bets I would play two hands of $200.00 each; in effect getting a 16 to 1 spread. This type of spread would draw considerable attention in a double-deck game in Vegas, but in an eightdeck game in Atlantic City it goes almost unnoticed.

Pick your game and play it to the best of your abilities. Once you have learned and practiced NWQ you will beat any of these games (regardless of the number of decks used) over the long run as long as the rules of the game fall in the “playable” range. cxxxv

NOTES

cxxxvi

Chapter Twelve Increasing Expected Earnings There are a number of ways to increase your earnings potential at a blackjack table and in this section we will cover some of these techniques. Many of the ideas presented here will only increase your edge slightly, but when a number of these techniques are used in conjunction, the small increases can add up to major dollars. Some of these increases in earnings will come from simply speeding up the game, while others will come from advanced playing strategies such as variations to basic strategy that you learned earlier. The key is to use as many of these techniques as possible during your playing session. Most of the techniques are not very difficult to implement yet they can be very powerful.

Speeding Up the Game One of the easiest ways to increase your overall earnings per hour is to play fast and to play in fast games.

This is the reason we scored faster games higher in chapter five when we covered how to rate a game for play. Finding a fast game is not very difficult. You can simply try to play heads up as often as possible, play at tables with fewer players or play with faster dealers.

But how do we speed up a game that we are in? One way is to simply play as fast as you can. Once you have mastered the skills in this book, you will be able play your hands faster than any dealer could possibly deal. In fact, most good card counters can count every card dealt, make adjustment for aces, and calculate betting strategies and still make their playing decisions faster than the average unskilled player. cxxxvii

Your commands to the dealer (hit, stand, double, etc) should be given to the dealer quickly and clearly, but not so quickly that you make mistakes. And your bets should be placed without hesitation, but do not sacrifice accuracy for speed. Of course this faster play on your part has a much greater impact on the game if you are playing heads up than it would if you were playing at a full table.

Multiple Hands You learned in the money management chapter that by playing two hands at the same time, you could increase your bet by 15% without increasing your risk. You can also increase your bets by 22% by playing three hands at the same time without taking on any additional risk. But there is an even more powerful use of multiple hands than simply putting more money in play.

I will often use multiple hands to control the speed of the game. Now on first reading this, you might think this means that I get more hands per hour by playing more hands at the same time. And yes this would be true, but actually we use this technique in a manner that is much different than what many people might think.

Instead of spreading our bets to three hands to make three larger bets when we have a high count, we do the opposite. When the count is high we play one hand with our larger bets. Playing only one hand allows us to get more hands with the higher count, thereby putting more money in action with our positive deck. We then spread our bets to two or three smaller hands when the count is on the negative side in order to eat up cards and get to the end of the deck sooner, so that the cards will be shuffled or so that we might run into a positive count.

There are three exceptions to this playing technique.

One, if you have a positive count and you are near the end of the shoe (only one round will be dealt from the remaining cards before the dealer shuffles) you should then spread your bet when you have higher counts. What you are doing in this cxxxviii

case is getting deeper into the deck, thereby increasing the penetration that you are getting from a positive deck by forcing the dealer to deal two additional hands to you.

Another exception is when you have a situation where there is a high count and there are a disproportionate number of aces remaining to be played. In such a case you might spread your bets to three hands in an attempt to catch one of these extra aces. This is an even more powerful move in a single or double-deck game.

The third exception to this rule might be a situation like the one described in the previous chapter where I use multiple hands to cover an extreme betting spread in a multi deck game. A 16-unit bet played on one hand draws much more attention than two 8-unit bets.

Back Counting Back counting is the act of standing and watching a blackjack game without actually sitting and playing at the table. What the card counter does is watch the game from the point of a new shuffle and does not enter the game until the count moves up. Then the counter sits at the table and plays until the count drops, where he then moves to another table and starts the process over again. Using this technique the back counter never plays negative shoes because he only sits down to play when there is a high plus count.

In the early years of card counting this technique was used much more than it is today. Years ago the casinos were not as good at spotting card counters as they are today, and back counters are the easiest of all counters to spot. Also many casinos have games that have a no mid shoe entry rule.

This means that no one can enter the game after the first cards of a new shoe are dealt until the cards are reshuffled.

Naive players think that this rule is to prevent players from being annoyed by people who jump in and out of the game mid shoe. This rule is in place for one reason only; to prevent back counting. cxxxix

Back counting is not something that I recommend to my students unless they are involved in team play, which we will cover later in this chapter. But there are times when back counting might be used other than in team play.

You walk up to a table with the intention of playing the game. There are a number of open seats in the pit and you have your choice of two or three games that allow mid shoe entry. As you walk up to the table the cards are being shuffled. Instead of taking a seat, you stand and casually watch the game. Four or five hands are dealt while you are watching and the count drops to a true count of –5, so you leave and look for another table to play. Notice that you are not planning on spending your day back counting table after table. You are only back counting for the first hands that you are going to play. This will allow you to make a larger bet on your first hand than you would normally make at the start of a new shuffle. This type of back counting before you start playing will only add a small advantage but it’s an advantage that does not cost you anything.

Flashes Flashing is what happens when a dealer exposes a card that you should not have seen. For example you are sitting at first base, (the first hand to be dealt) and the player in seat four has 13 vs. a dealer’s 10. The dealer starts to give the player a hit and just as the card comes off the deck or out of the shoe the player signals “stand.” The dealer immediately returns the card to the deck and there it sits until the next hand is dealt or the next hit is called for by another player. In the mean time, you saw the card. Sitting at first base and playing the first hand that will be dealt on the next round, this undealt, flashed card will be yours. If that card was an ace or a ten you could make a max bet regardless of the true count. If this card was a seven, or lower, you might want to make a minimum bet. Knowing what the card is does not mean that you are assured to win or lose the next hand cxl

(you still have another card to come) but this information is of extreme value.

This flashing situation does not happen very often but there are times that you can identify dealers who flash. I once knew a dealer in Atlantic City that dealt so fast that she often anticipated a player’s next move and came out with cards before the player’s signal. Because I identified this situation with her dealing, I would always sit in the first seat when playing at her table. About one time in every ten hours or so played at her table, there would be a flash that I could take advantage of when playing my hand. This might not sound like much, but imagine knowing what the next card to be dealt to you will be before placing your bet.

Even when I have not identified a flashing dealer, I still tend to sit at first base any time I play, especially in hand held games like double deck. Keep an eye out for dealers who flash and keep good notes. If you find such a dealer you should play their table as often as possible and sit in the first seat.

The Not So Random Shuffle Have you ever watched the cards being shuffled at a blackjack table? If there is any constant when it comes to dealers, it’s that none of them deliver random shuffles. This is not the fault of the dealer; it’s the fault of the casino and the nature of the business. For a deck to be truly random, a deck would have to be shuffled over twenty times. This would take quite some time in a four, six or eight-deck game.

Even in a single or double-deck game the cards are not shuffled enough to truly mix the cards. So how can you use this information?

If you are playing a single or double-deck game and notice something happen that you will be able to identify later, such as a card pattern, take mental note. For example, you are playing double deck and you notice that four aces (spade, club, heart, heart) come off the deck in a row and are placed in the discard rack on top of each other. Then the cxli

cards are shuffled and a new round of hands are dealt. You are sitting in seat one and the player in seat seven takes a hit and draws an ace of spades. He then takes another hit and draws an ace of clubs. The hand ends and a new round is about to start. There is a higher than average chance that your next card will be an ace, most likely an ace of hearts.

Remember that thereâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s two of each card in a doubledeck game, so you might not even be looking at the same two aces that you tracked in the previous round. And even if these are the same two cards, there is no guarantee that the ace of hearts will follow. But if these cards fall one after the other you can feel free to make a bet one or two units higher than normal because of your increased chance of catching one of these aces.

This technique also applies to other patterns you might spot, but it takes a great deal of effort to spot the patterns and a great deal of patience to wait until you have an opportunity to use the pattern that you have identified. If you are playing heads up, these opportunities become much more frequent.

Tracked Shuffles Tracked shuffles fall into the same category as shuffles that are not totally random. But now you are looking for clusters of cards. For example, you are playing in a fourdeck game and the dealer is dealing out with a 75% penetration rate, meaning that three of the four decks are dealt before the dealer shuffles again. You have been counting down these cards while playing and your ending count is +12. This means that the remaining deck (the one still in the shoe) contains twelve too many high cards and the dealing of those cards would be very favorable to you. The dealer gets to the cut card, deals her last hand, pulls the remaining cards from the shoe and shuffles them in with the cards that were previously dealt.

But you notice that an interesting thing happened.

When she removed the cards from the shoe she placed them cxlii

on top of the four decks and started to shuffle leaving a lot of the cards that were in the unused pile together as she went through her shuffle routine. You followed this pile of cards as she shuffled and notice that these cards are left together.

At this point the dealer offers the cut card to a player (hopefully you) to place in the four decks, cutting the cards for the next round of play.

What do you do if you are the person who gets to cut the cards? Simple, you will cut the cards right at the top of this high card rich group of cards that you have been tracking. And what you have done by placing the cut at this point is put this group of cards at the top of the deck for the next round of dealing.

If you are successful in tracking a cluster of plus cards this way, you would be able to bet three or even four units off the top of the deck, even though your true count would be zero for the new shuffle.

What would you do if your ending count was a deep minus count, and you were able to track the cards in the same fashion? In this case you would place the cut card at the bottom of the pile of low cards, taking them out of play and putting them at the bottom of the four decks.

Shuffles that can be tracked are rare to find these days because the casinos have gotten better at training their dealers to mix up the unused cards, but at times you will get a chance to use this technique.

Years ago at the Claridge in Atlantic City the shuffle was so easy to track that skilled players were offering other people as much as $5.00 for the privilege of cutting the cards. Little did these other players know it, but having one of us cut the cards would benefit the entire table. Win, win for the players, lose, lose for the casino.

Team Play Using a BP: The BP stands for â&#x20AC;&#x153;Big Player.â&#x20AC;? One way the BP concept is played, you have a number of card counters playing at different tables around the casino. These counters cxliii

play relatively low limits and flat bet. When the count rises to a predetermined point the counters signal the BP to come to the table and play. The BP, looking like a gambler just walking around and occasionally jumping in a game, makes a large bet. The BP sits and plays at the table until the count drops and the counter signals the BP to leave the game. At this point the BP walks around again and waits for another counter to signal him into the game. This is the most common example of team play.

Another way to use a BP is to have him sit at a table with the counter. The counter plays his hands making flat bets but signaling the BP how much to bet and how to play his hands. The reason the BP does not draw heat as a card counter has much to do with his â&#x20AC;&#x153;act.â&#x20AC;? The BP can drink, flirt with cocktail waitress, look around, talk to everyone at the table, and never have to worry about the count. Because he seems to not pay much attention to the game, he is rarely suspected of counting cards.

Combined Bank, Everyone Plays: This is the simplest of the team concepts. Here you have a number of card counters that combine their bankrolls in order to play at higher limits while reducing their overall risk. This falls right into the NWQ concept; higher returns with lower risk.

Letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s say you have four skilled card counters. Each of the four has a bankroll of $10,000. If each counter were to play individually, they would divide their bankrolls by 200 and play $50 units, earning about $100 an hour. But if the four counters played with a combined bankroll of $40,000 they would divide this total bankroll by 200 and each of the four would be able to play $200.00 units without taking on any additional risk. This is a very powerful concept that is used by many professionals.

The key to any type of team play is trust. If you have as many as five or six other people playing with your money, it is important that you are able to trust each and every member of the team. There have even been teams that use polygraphs (lie detectors) to assure that each member is cxliv

honest about the amount they have won or lost during a session.

Getting Comped If you are not familiar with the term â&#x20AC;&#x153;compsâ&#x20AC;?, these are the freebees that casinos give players to entice them to play in their casino. These freebees can include rooms, dinners, shows and even limos or private planes for high rollers. But you do not have to be a high roller to get comped by a casino.

The value of the comps you receive from the casino will be a direct reflection of the action you give them when you play. Keep in mind that you do not have to lose in order to get comped, you only have to play for an amount of time, averaging a certain level of betting. As an example, if you play 5 hours a day at a hundred-dollar table in Las Vegas, you can expect to qualify for a free room, dinner and show tickets. If you play 5 hours at a five-dollar table, you might get a free buffet and maybe a discount on your room.

As a card counter you have an important decision to make when it comes to comps. If you play at higher limits in a casino for an extended period of time you qualify for a lot of good stuff. A free room, dinner and a show can add (in value) $200-$300 a day to your earnings. Over time this can really add up, but you take on a special risk when you post too many hours at one casino to try to qualify for comps. If you are going to qualify for comps you will need to play many hours in one place, which will set you up to get spotted as a card counter and ultimately barred.

Many excellent players who would have normally been able to drain tens of thousands of dollars from a good game over time have been barred while trying to build up comp time. In the long run you may actually lose money out of the deal if you end up getting barred. Also, if you play for comps you will need to be rated by the casino. This means that you will need to give the casino your name in order to get a players card so that they can track your play and cxlv

measure how much action you are giving them. If you have been barred in the past or you worry about being barred in the future, the fact that the casino has your name on file will not help you if you try to return to play at a future date.

Remember that as a skilled player, you do not want to play in any one place for more than two hours straight. If you are trying to post time for the benefit of scoring comps, you might tend to play too long, so be very careful.

Cheating Many blackjack books have entire chapters on cheating by casinos. I am here to tell you that a cheating casino would be very hard to find these days. For starters, the casinos make too much money honestly to risk throwing away their business by cheating customers. There have been cases in recent years where dealers were caught cheating, but it was not on behalf of the casino. They were cheating to allow a partner sitting at their table to win. They might have even cheated the other players at the table to offset some of the payout going to the partner. But this is a very rare occurrence.

Most dealers, as expert as they look shuffling and dealing out hands of blackjack, do not come close to having the skills needed to deal seconds or bottoms in a live game, under the watchful eye in the sky. And if there were going to be any cheating done by the casinos, it would not be done at the levels you will most likely be playing. Why risk cheating a $25 player out of 20 hands when you could cheat a $500 player out of one hand? So strike being cheated by a casino off of your worry list.

Our focus here is on players that cheat. There are a number of ways for players to cheat at a blackjack table, especially in games such as double-deck in Vegas where the player touches the cards. The player can palm and switch cards, mark cards, hold out cards, alter bets in mid play etc.

And there are a number of people out there cheating the casinos every day. But over time, just about each and every cxlvi

one of them will get caught. The bottom line is, do not even think about cheating. You will be spotted on camera, by the floor person or by the dealer and you will get caught. And you might even do some jail time.

cxlvii

NOTES

cxlviii

Chapter Thirteen Keeping Score Keeping a Players Log This should be obvious to most players but it needs to be said anyway: You have to keep good records of your play.

These records should not only include win / lose records, as we will discuss later, but other information as well. In this chapter we will cover some of the types of records you should keep, and you can add your own ideas later. Keep in mind that the more information you record and the more notes you take, the more it will benefit you later.

Player Notes: This is where you will record information on how you played. Did you make any errors, did you forget your count, and did you make any over or under bets?

Maybe you played perfectly or did not notice yourself making any errors. This is the type of information you should cover in your player notes.

Casino Notes: This is where you will record information about the casinos you have played in. What rules were in effect, how many decks were in use and what kind of penetration did you get. Did the dealers flash cards? Did the dealers deal fast, slow, etc. What kind of heat did you experience? Did you get barred and if so on what shift were you barred? What were you wearing? (Note: If you ever get barred, make note of what shift you where playing and how you were dressed. I have often played at a casino where I have been barred, a day later during a different shift. If you are barred while wearing a baseball cap and jeans, try going back in a business suit a week or two later.) cxlix

Win / Lose Records This part of your record keeping should be obvious.

Here you are going to record your win / lose records. But you will need to cover more than simply whether or not you won or lost and how much. Your records should be of great detail. If you have the basic knowledge of how to build a spreadsheet this will make your job a little bit easier. But even if you do not have these basic computer skills (or know someone that can help you with this) you can still keep outstanding records on paper.

Below I will show you a sample win / lose log. Note that I not only recorded the date, net win or loss, but also the name of the casino, decks in use, times the session started and the hourly earnings.

Sample Win / Lose Records Date 10/04 10/04 10/10 10/10 11/05 11/05 11/14 11/14

Time 13:30 15:00 01:15 13:15 10:30 15:30 03:00 12:00

Chart 13-1

Casino #Dks Hrs $Win Flamingo 2 2 390 NYNY 2 1 125 BarCoast 2 3 ----Parris 2 2 450 Stardust 2 4 100 Treas Isl. 2 3.5 350 Trump Taj 6 2 ----Trump Taj 6 3 1275

$Lose $Per Hr. ----195 ----125 75 -25 ----250 ----25 ----350 250 -125 ----425

Note that our records list sessions that were played on the same day as individual sessions. Also the reason you want to log the number of decks in use is so that you can see if there are games that you do better in than others. It is also a good idea to put the name of the casino and time in your records so that you will know not to overplay a given casino during a specific shift.

If you are changing unit size from session to session you might want to include this information as well. For cl

example, you might play $100.00 units in a two-deck game but play $50.00 units in a four or six-deck game the same day. If the game is a little tougher or you are getting extra heat you might want to play more conservative units. I also tend to play smaller units in smaller casinos. There are some places where $100 bets at the blackjack table are so rare that you will draw heat the minute you start playing. Other larger casinos might see bets as high as $2000 without batting an eye.

You might also want to log how much heat you have gotten from the floor people during your session. I will rate the session on a scale of 1 to 5 with one being zero heat from the floor and 5 being very high heat. Even though you have this information in your playerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s notes, you may want to include this in your win / lose records so that you have a snap shot of your sessions. Maybe you are getting more heat at the two-deck game and no heat in the six-deck game.

Maybe you are only getting heat when you are winning.

Maybe you are getting heat only when you play larger units.

These are all things that you should try to include in your records (in the win / lose section, the casino notes section or both).

cli

NOTES

clii

Chapter Fourteen Blackjack as a Business Turning Pro I have had a number of my friends tell me, “Bryan you live every guy’s fantasy.” They say this because I fly from Atlantic City to Vegas and play cards for a living. Well, my answer usually comes in two parts. First, I think Hef is living every man’s fantasy (every straight man). And second, this is not an easy job.

For starters, I am away from my family far too often.

Also as a professional gambler (I hate this term because I do not think of it as gambling) you must do many of the same things you do in any other profession. You have to get out of bed at some point. You have to go to the office, or in my case, the casino. You deal with traffic, being on time and having to work when you do not really want to. Add to that the fact that you do not get any sick days, vacation time or benefit packages. And you still have to pay taxes on your earnings. Then there is the studying, practicing, reading and other factors that go along with being good enough to play as a professional.

Other people say, “yea playing blackjack and poker for a living is great but you can lose thousands of dollars in one day at that job.” The reason I don’t buy this as a reason not to play as a pro is; if I owned a retail store, or worked as a stockbroker (my previous life) you can easily have a day when you lose money. What happens when no one comes in the store for ten days because there is 12 inches of snow on the ground or the economy is so bad that people are not buying your product? You lose money each of these days because you still have to pay employees and turn on the lights. cliii

But yes, you can lose money at this job when you go to work for the day; but you as a professional need to learn how to deal with this fact. If you saw me walking to my car after a session at the Taj Mahal Casino in Atlantic City, you could not tell looking at my face whether I just won $10,000 or lost $10,000. Knowing that I am going to win in the long run is what keeps me going and keeps me from getting upset about losses. Yes, it is a much better day when you win, but it is not such a bad day when you lose.

As I mentioned, my previous occupation was as a regional manager for a brokerage firm. I made a ton of money and it was a great job. But I got up in the morning knowing that there would be a major issue that day. There was one every day. I had over forty people reporting to me and another forty that had a dotted line reporting to me.

Simple probability tells you that someone is going to screw something up. Or one of the tens of thousands of customers my staff dealt with was going to be a problem that day. As a professional gambler your day is simple. Put in the hours and win some money before going home. I can honestly say that my worst day as a professional card player is still better than a good day as a regional manager.

Of course there are some other issues that go along with being a professional gambler. Things such as what are you going to tell your wife? “Honey I am going to quit my job and play cards every day to pay the bills.” “Honey, remember that book on blackjack you bought me for my birthday, well the author Bryan Mitchell says that I could make a living playing cards, so I think I will do that starting next week.” Even if your spouse and others who depend on your income buy into the idea, what do you tell other people?

I altered a joke I once heard to illustrate a point: My wife is at a PTA meeting at my daughter’s school and the teacher running the meeting is going around the room asking each parent what they and their spouses do for a living. They get to my wife and she says, “I am a Vice President at a major bank and my husband Bryan is a nude dancer in a gay cliv

bar.” The teacher hearing this quickly sits my wife down and goes on to the next parent. The rest of the startled parents go on to tell the group what they and their spouse do for a living until everyone has spoken. At the end of the meeting the teacher comes over to my wife and asks, “Is your husband really a nude dancer at a gay bar?” My wife replays, “No, he is a professional gamble, but I was too embarrassed to say that to the group.”

Besides the “What will people think” issue, there are another two or three hundred issues that will come up over time. Some are things that you would never think about unless you actually played cards every day of the week.

Things like second hand smoke. Some card rooms and casinos are filled with smoke. If you work in an office, chances are you can go your entire day without being exposed to second hand smoke. If you work in a casino, you learn quickly that there is no other subset of Americans that smoke more than gamblers. As a non-smoker myself, this can often be an issue as to where I will play.

For each individual, there are scores of issues that need to be examined before making this move to pro, or remaining a pro, and many reasons will be different from person to person. So think carefully before making any major life changes with the idea of playing blackjack for a living. I may even return to a more traditional line of work some day, as many successful professional gamblers have done.

Playing as a Pro I played blackjack as a card counter for many years before becoming a professional; and there is a major difference when playing as a pro. For starters, if you are playing casually or part time and you have a regular job, chances are you do not have to win. If you have five or ten losing sessions in a row, your bills will still get paid and your family will still eat. But if you play for a living, you are not living unless you win. clv

The game has a different meaning when you must win. You cannot afford to over bet your hand, or drop counts, or make playing errors. If you make one error per hour, it could cost you your expected earnings for that entire hour. So you have to play as close to perfect as possible. And you have to do this without getting barred, because once you are known all over town, you are out of business. So keep in mind that the casual over-bets and errors you might have made as a non-pro, cannot be allowed as a professional.

Your goal is 100% betting accuracy in your playing and betting, unless you need to lay down cover bets to keep from getting barred.

clvi

NOTES

clvii

Chapter Fifteen The Inter Game Of Blackjack The Psychology of Winning and Losing It’s not difficult to deal with winning. You simply take the money and go on with your day. But there are a couple of things to keep in mind when it comes to the psychology of winning. Yes, your state of mind can determine whether or not you are more likely to win. I am not saying that you can “will” yourself to win, but you can put yourself in the proper state of mind to play well and in return increase your chances of winning. For starters you should go into every session expecting good things to happen. You should expect to win, expect not to get barred and expect not to make playing errors.

Will you win every time you play, even if you are in the right state of mind every time you play? No. But you need to see yourself winning. If at any time during your session you do not feel like a winner, you need to take a break. Playing in the wrong state of mind not only leads to losses, but other problems as well.

Soon after turning professional I flew out to Vegas for a ten-day trip to log some playing time. Prior to this trip I had been barred for counting cards at only two Las Vegas casinos. This was fine because I simply did not play at these two casinos any longer. But a strange thing happened on this one trip. I was playing at Treasure Island where I was being comped a room, dinners etc. On a prior trip to Vegas I put in a number of hours at this casino and really enjoyed playing there. I had so much fun with the dealers in the high limit pit, the hostess was very nice and the games were great. So when I was labeled as a high roller and invited back with free room clviii

and meals, I jumped right on it. But this time I was returning to town as a professional.

This is where the problem starts. As discussed earlier, as a pro or even as a serious semiprofessional card counter, you should never play at any one casino more than an hour to two hours at a time. I made the mistake of falling in love with Treasure Island. The dealers might be the nicest and most fun dealers on the strip. They have some of the best double-deck games in town, and they treat the players very well. During the course of falling in love with this place I ended up playing four to six hours straight in the high limit pit and on the casino floor. And then suddenly on my third day there, BINGO, I got barred.

I did get a little upset about this, for two reasons.

One, I had just turned pro and did not want to start getting barred all over town. Two, I was (up to this point) known as a good customer in this place, and I was given a number of freebees because of this fact.

But there were still a ton of favorable games in town and I had only been barred from three of them (counting Treasure Island). So I got in a cab and started to work the strip. Suddenly I got caught off guard and got barred at another casino, and then one more within two hours. Did I have a big sign on my head that said “I’m a professional and you should bar me from your casino today?” How could I get barred in three casinos in two hours? Was my picture being circulated all over town, and in just two hours? Well, as much as the casinos would like you to think it works that way, it does not.

I went back to my room at Treasure Island (at least when you are barred from playing blackjack they do not kick you out of your room). I took out a pad and paper and started doing some freeform thinking. What is going on, and why am I being barred left and right? Then it hit me. It was my mindset. For starters, Treasure Island was the first time I was ever truly upset about being barred. Prior to turning pro, it did not make much of a difference to me. I did not need to play blackjack to make a living, so if I got barred, so be it. clix

Also, once I was barred from the second casino I made two mistakes that got me barred from the third casino. I played more aggressively in an effort to make up for the lost revenue at Treasure Island. And because I spent so much time finding a new game and worrying about the fact that there were two less places I could play, I am sure I looked a little too serious to be the average Joe playing a few hands for kicks. And I really looked too serious for a guy that was sitting at a table winning. All of this drew more attention to my play and caused the third barring. So, remember that the wrong frame of mind might not only lead to losing but to other negative outcomes as well.

When you are in fact having a losing session you need to work even harder on keeping the right mindset. Are you losing focus? Are these losses bothering you more than they should? Are you making playing errors as a result of these losses? If you answer yes to any of these questions, it’s time to take a break.

Even though as a skilled player, the odds of you winning are greater then the odds of losing, you will still suffer some losing sessions. And at times these losses come back to back. In fact, if you play for any extended period of time you will eventually run into some very long losing trends that can last for weeks or even longer. The way you deal with these losses will determine your success or failure as a serious player. If you are playing well, not making errors and you are playing in good games, you will ultimately pull back ahead. And once you understand this fact, you will have a better time dealing with losses.

I once had a dealer friend of mine tell me that I sometimes drew heat from his floor people because I never looked upset when I was losing. He told me that they would say things like: “That guy is too at ease with his loss, he must be a professional.” Well it’s true that I do not get very upset when I lose but I have never known anyone to get barred for losing with grace.

In the money management sections of this book I stated that there might be reasons for you to leave a session clx

early even though you are winning and the game is favorable. One of these times might be following a series of losing sessions. If I have a number of bad sessions in a row, I will often take a small win or two to break this cycle. This is something that helps me and might also be of use to you as well.

When it is all said and done, you will have to find your own ways to deal with losses. If you understand that losses will eventually happen, and that you still have an edge over the house, losses will be much easier to handle. Also if you play well within your bankroll so that no losing session can be so meaningful as to put your total bankroll in jeopardy, you will also have a better time dealing with losses. Remember, anyone can handle winning, but the best measurement of a true professional is how well you handle losing.

clxi

NOTES

clxii

Chapter Sixteen Continued Education A Funny Thing Happened Part of your goal as a skilled player is to continue your education as a player. What this means is keeping up with what is going on in the industry, and what changes have taken place in the game. For this reason I have launched a web site that will allow you to keep up with happenings in the card playing world, NWQG.com But before we get to the website, let’s discuss the other types of information you might come across.

A funny thing happened this morning. I was driving to Atlantic City to play poker as I do just about every weekday that I am not playing blackjack. I was listening to Howard Stern on the radio when a “so called” blackjack expert called in. He told Howard that he had a system that won 78% of the time and it did not involve card counting. He went on to say that he plays every other day and has made his living playing blackjack for years. His “system” was to play basic strategy and use the Manhattan area code system for betting. In case you have never heard of this betting system: You start out by betting 2 units on your first bet. If you lose a hand you bet 2 units again. But if you win the hand, you drop to 1 unit and should you win that hand you go back to 2 units (2-1-2 is the area code for Manhattan) and if you win the third hand in a row you go to 3, 4 and then 5 units until you lose a hand then you return to 2 units and start over again.

After listening to the call for 2 minutes I actually started to worry about all of the people who were listening to this misinformation that was filling the airwaves and I started thinking about the hundreds of thousands of dollars these clxiii

people were going to lose collectively over the next few months. In fact it made me so angry that I had to change the station rather than listen to this guy go on and on and Howard buying into this crap.

Well changing the station did not help me deal with my anger. I just could not handle the idea that this was happening and it was going to ruin my day if I did not do something about it. So I called the station. Within two minutes I was on the air with Howard and this writer.

I started out by explaining that blackjack could not be “beat” without counting cards and that the system this guy was talking about was actually about 200 years old and only works to limit some of the losses you might take from overbetting in games like craps and baccarat.

Then a funny thing happened. This “expert” suddenly backtracked and said, “Yes, well this system is for the average guy who just wants to play and not lose too much money.” Well, not losing too much money is a far cry from winning a lot of money. And the funny thing is that this is not so funny. There is a great deal of bad information out there and a number of people are charging a lot of money for bad information. There are also a lot of people paying for this bad information.

So, when you are reading other books and articles on the game, remember that you have to be careful about what advice you follow. What you have learned from this book should be your base for what makes sense and what does not make sense when it comes to beating this game. No betting systems will ever take away the fact that the odds of winning or losing your next hand change with the dealing of each and every card. And there is no magic formula like “2-1-2” or the most favorite “451”, that will win money for you in the long run.

What is "451"? This is the system you thought you invented as a kid. It is better known in the world of gambling as the Martingale system. You bet 1 unit, lose and then bet 2 units, lose and bet 4 units, continuing to double your bet until you win. Then you start over again at 1 unit. The 451 comes clxiv

from the theoretical odds 451 to 1 of you losing every bet in an even game if you repeat this doubling process to a certain level. I like the name 451 because this is the temperature at which paper burns. And this is exactly what you will be doing with your money if you follow such a system.

You see, there are three problems with this system.

One, you could lose 10, 20 or even more bets in a row. And after only 5 bets at a low limit table using $5 units, you have put $155.00 in action and you now have an $80 bet on the layout (this is not counting double downs and splits). And if you win this hand, do you know how much you will have won? Yes, $5. You just risked $155.00 in an even money game with the chance of winning $5.00. You just laid the house over 30 to 1 odds on an even money bet.

The next of the three problems, as if you needed two more reasons, is that you might just run out of money before you get to the hand where you get to pull down your one unit profit. If you get to 10 hands without a win, you will have put $5115.00 in action to win $5.00. And the third problem is that you might very well run into the table limit (max bet) before you ever win your one unit.

Other Blackjack Books Some of the best books on blackjack were written over twenty years ago, and some of the worst have been written in the last five years. The problem is that the good books that were written a long time ago contain dated information and much of this information is not useful in todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s game. And many of the books written in the last five years, contain systems that do not beat the game.

So how will you know what to read and what not to read? I will be reviewing books now and then on the NWQG web site to hopefully make this easier for you. But without a review, you should understand that, barring any radical changes in the game of casino blackjack, what you have learned in this book should take you as far as you wish to go. clxv

Therefore you might not need to read another blackjack book in your entire life, yet continue to enjoy great success.

There are some things that you might learn from other books that you might find useful. There are many things about the world of blackjack that could never be covered in one book. You may wish to have information on how to successfully play in blackjack tournaments or you may want to learn how to maximize comps. For example, as a follow up to this book we offer workbooks on how to run blackjack teams or win at tournaments. This information is available through the website. Also if there is a book or program that you are considering and you would like a second opinion before making your purchase you can email me with your questions before investing your money.

Training Software One purchase that I strongly recommend is a good blackjack program for your computer. These are programs that allow you to practice many hands per hour without any financial risk. There are many of these simulators out there and I do not want to recommend one over another; but if you have one in mind, send me an email and I will tell you what I think of the program. If you are going to be a great player, you will need to practice often and training software is a great way to practice.

The NWQ Website As I mentioned earlier there is a NWQ website. On this site you can read a free monthly newsletter and find out about what is happening in different casinos when it comes to blackjack games. You will also find ideas and articles to help you improve your game. And you can use the website to review other NWQ books and information. Please feel free to visit the site often and use it as a tool to keep yourself informed and at the top of your game. The web address is: www.NWQG.com clxvi

NOTES

clxvii

Chapter Seventeen Additional Thoughts Giving Advice If you have gotten this far in this book, and successfully passed all of the exams, chances are you will be the best player at any blackjack table you ever choose to play. This puts you in a unique position. You may at times feel obligated to help another player who is sitting at the table. Some players, in fact many players, truly believe that when a player at the table makes an error it affects the outcome for everyone else. Well this is only partly true.

Three things have to happen for this to be totally truthful.

One, the player’s error must include them taking or not taking a card that would help or hurt the dealer. Two, the dealer needs to be obligated to take a hit. Three, the card the dealer does take has to be of a totally different meaning than the card the dealer would have taken.

An example would be a player who hits 13 when the dealer is holding a 6. The player pulls a 10 and busts. The dealer’s hole card is a 10 and she draws a 5, making her hand 21. This situation causes just about every player to look at the player who hit his 13 and think (or sometimes say out loud), “If that fool did not take a hit, the dealer would have busted and everyone would have won.” Well, in the real world of real players who have even the smallest understanding of what just happened, we know that the player could have just as easily drawn a 5, leaving the dealer a 10 and causing her to bust.

This fact seems to be overlooked by just about every unskilled player. But the bottom line is that the player making the error will help you as often as they hurt you. And on many occasions their misplay will not change any clxviii

outcomes at all. This said, there is no (selfish) reason for you to advise another player as to how to play their hand. The funny thing is that once you become a highly skilled player, and you play using the variations in chapter eight you may look, to other players, as though you are making playing errors.

By the way, if a player misplaying their hand could cause everyone else at the table to lose over an extended period of time, casinos all over the world would hire people to sit at third base (the last seat at the table) and play badly.

Getting back to the advice issue: I never give advice at the blackjack table. And even when I am asked by another player, “Should I take a hit?” I usually reply “Use your gut feeling and do whatever you feel is best.” I have enough to worry about at the table, I don’t need to worry about how my advice helped or hurt someone else’s hand.

Superstition I have a friend who is one of the best dealers in Vegas. She deals with lightning speed, makes very few errors and is great with customers. Even though she understands basic strategy and gives good advice to players on how to play their hands, her understanding of the game is cloaked in a cloud of superstition. In most cases, this superstition does not come to light at the table where she is dealing, but if you talk to her when she is not dealing you hear some interesting remarks. She says things like, “Don’t play his table, he has been hot for a week.” She even believes that she can change the way she shuffles the cards and influence the game. The good news for her is that she does not gamble, other than hitting a nickel slot machine now and then.

If this type of superstition exists in the mind of someone that deals 40 hours a week, imagine how some players think. Even skilled players think that a dealer can be hot or cold. The reality is that the player has simply run into a winning or losing trend that will end as quickly as it clxix

started. When you think about this logically, a dealer will (in the long run) deal a set percentage of winning hands, so someone who is “running hot” is overdue for a cool down.

I have often sat down at a table where players have said to me, “Oh, you don’t want to play here, this dealer has been killing us.” Or my favorite, “The guy who was sitting there before you lost $10,000 in 30 minutes.” In just about all of the cases when I was warned about the hot dealer or the cold seat, I have gone on to win. I did not win because the tables were turning on the dealers luck, but because I was more skilled than the other players who were being beaten.

It’s funny how the players rarely blame their poor play for their losing session. You never hear players say, “This dealer is killing us because none of us have a clue what we are doing.”

Do not let yourself become a victim to superstitious thinking. I am here to tell you that there are no such things as hot dealers or cold tables. There are trends that show up at the table now and then that yield a series of wins or losses that are out of line with the norm. But these trends always come to an end and it can happen in a hundred hands or it could end on the very next hand. Since you have no idea when the trend will change, there is no reason to try to avoid it.

Tournament Play For many years I avoided playing in blackjack tournaments. My reasons for avoiding tournaments ranged from: Not wanting to showcase my blackjack skills in casinos where I need to play with anonymity, to there is simply too much luck and too little skill involved in winning a blackjack tournament. I was wrong on both of these counts.

First, the way tournaments are formatted and the way they must be played in order to be successful, your skills as a card counter are very rarely on display. Next, even though there is a great deal of luck involved in winning a tournament, skill can also play a major part in your success. clxx

The interesting thing is, the skills that are needed to win tournaments, are rarely the same skills needed to win a regular live game. For starters, with tournaments, you are trying to not only win (play money), but you must win more than the other players at the table. This means that you may need to make maximum bets when the count is negative or make small bets when you have a positive count.

Over the last twelve months, I have played in two tournaments in Las Vegas. In both cases, it was my betting skill, not my counting skill, which allowed me to advance.

Also in both cases it was the turn of one card by a player making a very large bet in the last hand of the tournament round that leads to my elimination. In both cases I was the chip leader until that final hand.

If you advance to later rounds, chances are you will be playing against other players who understand the fundamental betting strategy of winning a tournament. That strategy is to bet very conservatively at the beginning of the round of play, and more aggressively during the last 5 hands of the round. The result of everyone understanding this strategy is that you have four or five of the original seven players at your table all within one bet of winning the game.

This means that unless you are lucky enough to get your chip count out of reach of the other players at the table, you will need to be lucky enough to win the final hands played. Very rarely are the tournament winners skilled card counters, but skilled tournament players do win more often.

There are some books out that help you learn to play better in tournaments, but my advice would be to play in a tournament before making the investment of money and time in a tournament book. The reason I say this is because tournaments are best played for the fun of playing them. You have a much better chance racking up $30,000 playing regular â&#x20AC;&#x153;liveâ&#x20AC;? games than by winning tournaments. But tournaments are fun for many players. I have started playing tournaments after over 20 years of playing blackjack, and I have done so simply because it is fun. clxxi

NOTES

clxxii

Closing Thoughts I once made a list of the best purchases (investments) I have ever made. On this list I included things such as my first BMW that I paid $12,500 for (used) and sold eight years and 100,000 miles later for $5,000. The list also includes the $300 I paid for my dog Hamlet, who has given my family friends and me years of love and entertainment. And also on the list is the $20 I spent in 1978 for the first blackjack book I ever read. I hope that NWQ becomes as valuable to you and delivers the returns that I enjoyed from my investment.

Have fun and make a ton of money.

clxxiii

INDEX A alpha adjustments · lxxvi, lxxxix, xc alpha count · li, lii, liii, liv, lv, lxvi, lxviii, lxxiii, lxxv, lxxvi, lxxvii, lxxviii, lxxix, xc alpha numeric count example · liii Atlantic City · ix, xxxiv, xciii, xciv, cxv, cxvii, cxxii, cxxvii, cxxviii, cxxxiii, cxli, cxliii, cliii, cliv, clxiii, 180 automatic shuffle machines · lxi, lxvii, cxxi B baccarat · xiii back counting · cxxxix, cxl basic strategy · xix, xx, xxi, xxiv, xxv, xxix, xxxi, xlvi, xlix, lii, liv, lvi, lvii, lxiv, lxv, lxviii, lxxi, lxxii, lxxxv, xcix, c, ci, civ, cxiv, cxxxiii, cxxxvii, clxiii, clxix basics of card counting · xl Beat the Dealer · xv betting systems · lxxxiii, lxxxiv, lxxxv, lxxxvi, lxxxvii, lxxxix, xci, xcvi, clxiv betting systems · system X · lxxxv system Y · lxxxvi system Z · lxxxvii Big Player · cxliii big six wheel · xi BP · cxliii, cxliv Braun, Julian · xv C Caribbean stud · xiii chances of winning · lxxxiii Charts · Chart 3-1 · xxii Chart 3-2 · xxiii

Chart 5-1 · lxiv Chart 5-2 · lxv Chart 5-A · lvi Chart 6-1 · lxxii Chart 6-2 · lxxiv Chart 6-3 · lxxvi Chart 7-1 · lxxxvi Chart 7-2 · lxxxvii Chart 7-5 · xci Chart 8-1 · cii Chart 8-2 · cvi cheating · cxlvi Claridge · cxxviii, cxxix, cxliii combined bankroll · cxliv comp cards · cxviii comps · cxlv, cxlvi, clxvi computer analyses · xv continuous shuffle machine · lxv counting down the hand · xlv, liii counting team · cxxx cover betting. · cxxiv craps · xiii credit lines · cxviii cut card · lvii, lx, lxiv, cxxix, cxlii, cxliii D deal seconds · cxlvi dealers who play cards · cxv discard pile · lxxi double-deck · xxxiv, lv, lviii, lx, lxii, lxviii, lxxi, lxxiii, lxxv, lxxvii, lxxix, xc, cxxxiv, cxxxv, cxxxix, cxli, cxlvi, clix E eat up cards · cxxxviii eight-deck · lxi, lxxiii, lxxvi, cxxxiii, cxxxv, cxli element of ruin EOR · lxxxiii, xci errors · x, xii, xxiv, xxv, xxix, xliii, lxxxiii, xc, xcix, ci, civ, cxiv, cxv, cxvi, cxxiii, cxxv, cxxvii, cxxxv, cxlix, clvi, clviii, clx, clxix

expected earnings · xxxiii, xxxiv, xxxviii, lxxxiii, lxxxv, lxxxvi, lxxxvii, lxxxviii, xcii, xcvi, xcvii, cxvi, cxxx, cxxxvii, clvi eye in the sky · cxxi, cxxiii, cxxiv, cxlvi F Flamingo · cxxvi, cl flashed card · cxl flashing dealer · cxli four-deck · xxi, lxi, lxxiii, lxxv, lxxvii, lxxviii, xc, cxxxiii, cxlii freebees · cxlv G giving advice · clxviii grading system · lviii graveyard shift · lxiii H Hamlet · clxxiii heat · lxxxv, lxxxvii, lxxxviii, xciv, cxxvi, cxxvii, cxxviii, cxliv, cxlix, cli, clx hidden cameras · cxxi High Low count · xlii hitting soft 17 · xxxvii, lvii hourly earnings · cl house game · xxxii Howard Stern · clxiii Humble, Lance · xv hundred bean game · lix, lx, lxix I increase your earnings · cxxxvii insurance · xx, xxii, xxiii, xxiv, xxvi, xxviii, xxix, lii, lxxi, lxxiii, lxxiv, lxxv, lxxvi, lxxvii, lxxviii, lxxix, xc, ciii, cxxiv insurance · when do you take insurance · lxxv insurance counts · ace adjusted insurance count · lxxvi K keep good records · cxlix

keno · xi L Las Vegas · ix, xxxiv, xxxvii, lxii, cxv, cxvii, cxxxiii, cxlv, clviii, clxxi Law of Independent Trials · xiii M Manhattan area code · clxiii Martingale system · clxiv memory · xiii mid shoe entry · cxxxix, cxl money management · x, xv, xlix, lxxxi, xcv, cxxxviii, clx moving down · xci multi deck games · cxxxv multiple hands · cxxxviii N negative rules · xxxi, lxv North West Quadrant · ix nude dancer · cliv numeric count · xvii, xlii, xlviii, l, li, lii, lvii, lxvii, lxxiii, lxxvi, xc O other books · clxiv, clxvi other people’s money OPM · cxvii over-watched games · lxii P penetration · lx, lxi, lxiv, lxv, lxvii, lxviii, lxix, cxxv, cxxviii, cxxix, cxxxiv, cxxxix, cxlii, cxlix player’s edge · lxxxii playing as a pro · clv poker · ix, xi, cxviii, cxix, cxxx, cliii, clxiii, 180 polygraphs · cxliv positive rules · xxxiii practice deck · xlviii, lvi practice sessions · cxiv practice the alpha numeric count · lvi practice the numeric count · xlviii press · cxxv psychology of winning · clviii

R random shuffles · cxli re-splitting · xxxii, xxxvii return to cost ratio · xxxiii, xxxviii Revere, Lawrence · iii, xv riverboat · xxxiii, xxxvi, xxxvii, xxxviii Roberts, Stanley · xv roulette · xi, xiii running count · xlii, xliii, xliv, xlvi, xlvii, xlviii, l, li, lii, liii, liv, lv, lxxi, lxxii, lxxvii, lxxviii, lxxix S Sands in Atlantic City · lxiii scoring a game · xxxii, lxiv second hand smoke · clv session bankroll · lxxxii shoe · xxi side count · l, li, lii, lxxiii simulators · clxvi single-deck · xiii, xl, xli, xlix, li, lv, lx, lxxi, lxxiii, cvii, cxxxiii, cxxxiv six-deck game · lviii, lx, lxix, lxxi, lxxvii, cli slot machines · xi, cxvii slow dealers · lxiii soft hand · xxi speed of the game · lxii speeding up the game · cxxxvii splitting pairs · xx, xxii, xxxii, xxxv, xxxvii splitting tens · cxi spotting counters · cxxx tells · cxxx staked · cxviii Stardust · xxxvii, cl stiffs · xli, civ stop loses · xcii, xciv strategy variations · l, lxxxii, lxxxviii, xcix, c, ciii, civ, cv, cvii, cxiv, cxxv superstition. · clxix surrender · xix, xxv, xxxiii

systematic bankroll adjustments · xci T table limit · lxxxiii Taj Mahal · cliv team play · lxii, cxxx, cxxxi, cxl, cxliv Thorp, Edward · iii, xv three-card poker · xiii tipping · cxvi total bankroll · lxxxii tournaments · clxvi, clxx, clxxi tracked shuffles · cxlii training software · clxvi Treasure Island · clviii, clix true count adjustments · lxxi, lxxiii turning pro · cliii U unit · lxxxii, lxxxix, xci Uston, Ken · iii, xv W win targets · xciv Wong High Low · xlii www.NWQG.com · cxvii, clxvi Y your look · cxxii Z zero out · xlv, liii

About the Author

Insert picture number one here

Bryan Mitchell learned to count cards at a very young age and started playing winning blackjack in the casinos of Atlantic City at the age of eighteen. Bryan went on to be a successful stockbroker and Vice President at a major bank brokerage firm, while playing pro-level blackjack and poker part time. He later developed the NWQ counting system. Today Bryan is a professional gambler and writer, playing winning blackjack and poker at casinos around the country. Other than spending time with his family, Bryan enjoys driving racecars (Porsches), riding motorcycles, and playing basketball.