Taking the long view

to less toxic and more eco-efficient products from socially responsible producers. Competition between "big box" chains and independent dealers will continue, with increasing activism from localization groups. The green d-i-y and urban agriculture movements will continue to take root across the country. And a host of global and domestic macroeconomic factors will attenuate or amplify these opportunities and threats.

55fN rHE LoNG nuu, we'll all be dead." That unfortunate lutterance from a now-dead economist has provided a handy excuse for shortsighted business planners focused only on extracting the maximum profit from the here and now. That kind of thinking is responsible for many business failures, yes, but also many environmental problems more daunting even than the federal deficit. Failure to consider the future implications of decisions made today virtually guarantees a legacy of difficulty and hardship for the next generation.

Taking the long view, on the other hand, is at the heart of green thinking. Therefore, this January, I encourage you to forget about 201l's top trends for a moment and invest some quality time considering the next decade, and the opportunities and threats it will present to your business and community.

The best place to start is at the end-what will your business look like in 2020? Has it been passed down to your children? Acquired, shut down or thriving with you securely at the helm? Is it connected to the same old supply chain? Is the local economy vibrant and strong, or struggling along? Most importantly, what do you want yout business to look like and what sort of realistic scenarios will lead you there? To answer these questions, one must first consider the long-term forces reshaping our industry.

The next decade will see plenty of change and probably as many surprises as the last. Obviously, green building is on its way to becoming the new normal. Whether it's LEED or another approach, it creates new opportunities for growth. Transport fuel prices are trending higher with the very real possibility that periodic episodes of price volatility will devastate marginal businesses. Households, businesses, and governments will continue to shift purchasing

But underlying whatever scenario one wants to envision for the next 10 years, there is the inescapable reality that the global climate system is changing, most likely due to human activity. The last decade was the warmest on record, but more important to consider are the local and regional impacts. Extreme weather is becoming more common. NASA has published a slideshow depicting the number of temperature anomalies each decade going back to 1880 (earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/worldofchange/). The trend is unmistakable. which should be cause for concern, especially in the context of the massively destructive heat wave that hit Russia last summer.

Regional climate patterns are changing in ways that dealers and distributors should understand and anticipate. The U.S . Global Change Research Program (www.globalchange.gov) provides useful analysis for each region of the country. Depending on your location, expect more drought, more fires, more floods, more heat waves and cold snaps, and more precipitation when it comes. And when these "anomalies" occur, they will probably be at the wrong time, disrupting water supplies, agricultural harvests, supply chain logistics, and more.

These broad trends suggest that merchandising and business model innovations will be required to sustain a successful business. Households. businesses and governments will be forced to invest in mitigation and adaptation strategies. Dealers will, too. But the long-term planners among them will be prepared to weather whatever the decade has tn store. with solutions that will help their customers and communities. too.

JaY TomPt Managing Partner William Verde & Associates (415) 321-0848

Northeastern Supply, Battimore, Md., has purchased the former 84 Lumber yard in Pocomoke City, Md., as its 34th location. 84 shuttered the 17-acre site nearly two years ago.

Crain Lumbof, PortMatitda, pa., closed Dec. 31 after 65 years.

Mary Jane Crain, 80-year-old widow of the founder, retains the property and may lease some of the business's five structures.

Modern Builders Supply, Youngstown, Oh., has opened its 25th branch, in Muncie, In.

ProBuild, St. Cloud, Mn., suffered extensive damage to a warehouse and two trucks in a Nov. 29 fire.

Quitman Building Supply, Quitman, Ms., has been opened by Larry Loftin.

Weaver's Hardware Co., Fleetwood, Pa., received preliminary approval for a 4,500-sq. ft. addition to store and display lumber.

T&T Hardwdre, pittsburgh, pa., has closed after 74 years.

lnnovations of Home has opened in the former Marion Center Home Center, Rayne Township, In.

Staff includes Brian Miller, mgr, of house design and co-mgr. of hardware; Mary Jarvie, co-mgr. of hardware; Scott Shaffer, mgr. of outside sales & building products; Cindy Gemmell, sales supervisor, and John Mock, pole building design and metal sales rep.

84 Lumber has sold the site of its stores in Tonawanda and Orchard Park, Pa., to a real estate investment trust group and will lease back the properties.

Lowe's opened a 103,000-sq. ft. store Dec. 17 in S. Naples, Fl. (Cecil Riner, mgr.).

Home Depot opened a new $2Smillion, 657,000-sq. ft. rapid deployment distribution center Dec. 14 in Westsfield, Ma., to serve 115 stores throughout New England.

The chain expects to open 10 new stores in 2011.

ProBuild Closes 20

ProBuild, Denver, Co., has shuttered 18 facilities. with two more closures yet to be announced.

According to a company spokesperson, ProBuild is aligning its business with current market needs by closing facilities in markets where customer dcmand no longer requires multiple locations or where market demand does not exist.

Some facilities were consolidated with nearby locations, while others are being mothballed in hopes of quickly reopening once the construction market improves.