Structural panels, EWP to rise slightly

L.TORTH American structural wood

I \ panel (plywood and oriented strand board) production is expected to reach a record-setting 40.8 billion sq. ft (3/8" basis) this year, up nearly 420 million feet or about I 7a from 2002, according to the latest annual five-year forecast by APA-The Engineered Wood Association. Glulam timber, wood l-joist and laminated veneer lumber (LVL) production also is forecast to rise.

The forecast is based on the expectation that continued low interest rates will support 1.67 million U.S. housing starts this year, and that the economy wilf grow about 3Vo, giving a modest boost to demand in the remodeling, industrial and nonresidential construction markets.

Housing starts last year totaled 1.7 million, a l6-year high. Military action in the Middle East and the ongoing threat of terrorist attacks are, of course, wildcards that could have both short and longer term impacts on demand and production.

Residential construction in the U.S. and Canada combined is forecast to consume 21.4 billion sq. ft. of structural panels, down less than 17o from last year. Residential construction will consume nearly 53Va of total North American production.

The remodeling market is expected to consume 9.2 billion sq. ft., the industrial market 6.8 billion, and nonresidential construction 3.3 billion.

The volumes in each of those three markets represent about a 3Vo increase over last year. International market demand is expected to remain steady at about 700 million sq. ft.

OSB production is forecast to rise 990 million sq. ft. this year, to 23.7 billion, or 587o of total structural wood panel production. Plywood output will decline about 570 million ft., to 17.1 billion sq. ft.

Introduced around 1980, OSB production matched that of plywood for the first time in 1999 and its share of total North American panel production is expected to continue to rise over the next five years.

The vast majority of OSB panels continue to be used in construction and remodeling applications, while plywood dominates the industrial market with an 85Vo share of total structural wood panel demand. Those applications include material handling, such as pallets, bins and crates; furniture and fixtures, and transportation equipment, such as truck trailer liners.

Engineered wood framing products, such as glulams, wood l-joists and LVL, now represent about 57o of North American structural lumber demand. That share is expected to continue to rise slowly, reaching 6Vo by 2006.

Glulam production this year is forecast to total 343 million bd. ft., up aboutl.5vo from last year. New technology and product development efforts, such as glulams made with LVL and synthetic fiber reinforced polymer tension lams, provide a basis for expecting glulams to continue making market share inroads.

Wood l-joist production is expected to reach 1.03 billion linear ft. this year, an increase of nearly 5Vo from 2002. More than 807o of l-joist output is used in new residential floor construction, with the balance in nonresidential construction, remodeling and new residential roof and wall applications.

Production of LVL, used primarily as headers and beams and as the flanges of l-joists, is forecast to rise nearly 1Vo in 2003.