Moving forrvard and upwards

trrtnsr. A BELATED but Happy New Year. I hope you had a chance to enjoy the holi- r-' days. recharge the batteries, and prepare for what could be a good year-provided a deal was struck to solve the "fiscal cliff'crisis. I have no doubt a deal of some type will be reached, but I hope it is one that it is reasonable. I already sense during my calls that small business owners are very wary of the outcome. I can already hear that with the impact of the new health care plan really coming to light, we are still in a fragile space and the recovery we are beginning to sense could go back in the other direction. we have all fought hard to keep our businesses operating, we have all cut costs and seen diminished returns, and we have done our very best to keep our people employed-we do not need any additional hits. I hope by my next column the uncertainty will be over, as uncertainty can cause more harm than the outcome.

once a year, we tend to look back and reflect on the year just passed-the successes and failures, in both our personal and business lives. There is no doubt that in both cases our expectations have been lowered compared to perhaps any time in our lifetimes-especially in this industry. Downturns are normally l8 to 24 months, not six years.

After all that has happened these past years, by all accounts 2ol2 was a steady year. It was relatively quiet, despite the divisive election. In our industry, we started to sense for the first time that the tide is turning. So, perhaps a B-. Not great, but welcome stability after a horrendous 201 1.

As I reported last month and sensed everywhere I traveled, the mood is changing. You can already see some smiling, and hope is hanging in the air. Most stats show improvement. Employment is modestly better. Banks seem to be giving our mongages and loans a little easier (although maybe not to this industry). The housing numbLrs are improving, albeit shadows of their former selves. The stock market is hanging in there, despite worry about the cliff. Manufacturing is slighttly improving. EvenApple announced it will start making some Macs here. While the stats show we still liive some way to go, improvement is measured in inches and the transition to a growing economy has begun. we are all mostly more efficient out of necessity, and this is perhaps both good and bad for the market to come.

so what can go wrong? External to our industry, bad economies elsewhere could bring a chill. Europe is in duress pretty much everywhere and the Middle East seems under constant stress. The good news is that the U.S. economy has stood tall this year throughout the various crisises abroad.

I think the biggest issue in this industry in a growth scenario will be lack of supply. I.am already hearing about sold-out positions and with so much less capacity, proauition cannot be increased at the flip of a switch. Also, with so much human capital experience having been lost in the downturn, it will be difficult to staff up again. Credit limits and lines that have been lowered in recent years might not be abie to change fast enough to keep pace with higher volumes of business. Transportation will be a huge issue at some point again, too. Therefore, it will be hard to meet market demand at some point (with all that means), and it takes very brave senior management to recommend to the board to start expansion ahead of the curve, with always a sense of insecurity about what will hit next. But I am getting ahead of current realitywe are not there yet.

In some ways, it's a nice position to be in after what we've had to deal with in recent years. I suspect, though, that we have leamed the hard way and will not succumb to the excesses of 2004 to 2006. If 2013 shows a steady increase over 2012,I will be happy to take that! Again, have a great year and I look forward to seeing you on my travels. Stop me and say hello.

Alan Oakes, Publisher ajoakes@aol.com

www.building-products.com

A publication of Cutler Publishing 4500 Campus Dr., Ste.480, Newport Beach, CA 92660

Publisher Alan 0akes ajoakes@aol.com

Publisher Emeritus David Cutler

Director of Editorial & Production David Koenig dkoenig@building-products.com

Editor Karen Debats kdebats@building-products.com

Contributing Editors

Dwight Curran

James 0lsen

Jay Tompt

Carla Waldemar

Advertising Sales Manager

Chuck Casey ccasey@building-products.com

Administration Director/Secretary Marie Oakes mfpoakes@aol.com

Circulation Manager Heather Kelly hkelly@building-products.com

How to Advertise

Chuck Casey

Phone (949) 852-1990 Fax 949-852-0231 ccasey@building-products.com

Alan Oakes www.building-products.com

Phone (949) 852-1990 Fax 949-852-0231 ajoakes@aol.com

CLASSIFIED David Koenig

Phone (949) 852-1990 Fax 949-852-0231 dkoenig@building-products.com

How to

Subscribe

SUBSCRIPTIONS Heather Kelly

Phone (949) 852-1990 Fax 949-852-0231 hkelly@building-products.com or send a check to 4500 Campus Dr., Ste. 480, Newport Beach, CA 92660

U.S.A.: One year (12 issues), 922

Two years,936

Three years, $50

FOREIGN (Per year, paid in advance in US funds): Surface-Canada or Mexico. $48 Other countries, $60 Air rates also available.

SINGLE COPIES $4 + s5;OO'nn

BACK TSSUES $5 + shipping

Building-Products.com

Lp' FlameBlock- Fire-Rated OSB Sheathing offers you the best of both worldq-impressive sfuctural shength and remarkable burn-through fire resistance. Created by applying a patented, non-combustible Pyrotite" coating to Lp'OSB panels, LP FlameBlock Sheathing is an ICC certified (ESR-1365), PS2-rated strudural sheathing with a Class A flame Spread Rating. It provides extended burn-through resistance delivering a 20-minute thermal barrier (ASTM E119). It's durable on the job site, easy to work with, and is E:rposure-l rated to withstand rain during normal construction delays. LP I'lameBlock Sheathirrg is cost effective and available in a variety of Ps2-rated thicl<nesses and lengths, including Stuc-l. And from an environmental perspective, it contains no hazardous chemicals. Backed by a 2O-Year Transferable Limited Warranty, LP flameBlock Sheathing is the panel to count on when every minute matters. For more infomation on LP llameBloc} Fire-Rated Sheathing call LP Building Pmducts at 1{88-820-0325.