Lumber Markets Face Historic Lows Before Recovery

Demand for lumber in the U.S. in 2009 will slide to the lowest level in modern history, then move toward a slow recovery starting next year, according to a new forecast by Westem Wood Products Association.

The poor economy and a housing market that has plummeted to historic lows are the chief reasons for the remarkable decline in lumber demand. WWPA predicts U.S. lumber demand will slide this year to just 28.9 billion bd. f.t, down almost 307o from 2008 totals.

Since reaching an all-time high of 64.3 billion bd. ft. in 2005, U.S. demand for lumber has dropped by more than 55Vo- the steepest decline in the history of the industry.

Home construction traditionally accounts for more than 457o of the lumber used each year. WWPA estimates just 432,000 houses will be started in 2009, down more than half from 2008 totals and one-fifth of what was built in 2005.

The volume of lumber used in new home construction is expected total 5.3 billion bd. ft. this year, compared to the 27 .6 billion bd. ft. consumed in home building in 2005.

In 2010, housing is forecast to improve modestly to 553,000 starts, bringing lumber consumption to nearly 30 billion bd. ft. WWPA does not expect housing starts to exceed I million units until2012.

The unprecedented decline in demand has taken its toll on lumber producers. Western lumber production is forecast to decrease nearly 267o to 9.7 billion bd. ft. That volume is the lowest since the 1930s and represents a little more than half the volume western mills produced five years earlier.

Mills in the South will see production declines as well, falling to 10.9 billion bd. ft. in 2009. In all, U.S. lumber production will total 21.8 billion bd. ft. this year, down 25Vo from 2008. As markets start turning up in 2010, U.S. production will rise to22.4 billion bd. ft.

Poor markets have been even tougher on Canada and other foreign lumber suppliers. Lumber imports from Canada are predicted to total 7.6 billion bd. ft. in 2OO9, a decrease of 34.7Vo from the previous year. Since

2005, Canadian lumber imports have declined by nearly two-thirds, or some 14 billion bd. ft.

Other imports, including lumber from Europe and Latin America, should decline by double-digit percentages for the fourth straight year and lose more market share to domestic producers.

Top Grades For West Mills

Setting the standard for lumber grading accuracy in 2008, 10 western lumber mills have been named by WWPA as Hi-Q mills, recognizing superiority in accurately grading lumber.

One new mill was honoredHills Products Group, Spearfish, S.D.-along with nine repeat winners: Boise Cascade, Kettle Falls, Wa.; Hampton Lumber, Tillamook, Or.; Idaho Forest Group, Laclede and Moyie Springs, Id.; Stimson Lumber. Forest Grove and Plummer, Id.; C&D Lumber. Riddle, Or.; Columbia Vista Corp., Vancouver, and Idaho Veneer Co., Post Falls,Id.

Assotialion llews

( Continue d from pa ge 2 3 ) single booth) Austin Hardwoods, Denver (double), and Bluelinx (multiple). (Photos of winners below)

North American Wholesale Lumber Association will hold its annual executive conference April 26-28 at Loews Lake Las Vegas Resort, Henderson, Nv.

Aubra H. Anthony Jr., president and c.e.o. of Anthony Forest Products, will be honored with the Mulrooney

Award during the conference. A regional meeting is slated for April 30 at the Vancouver Club, Vancouver, B.C. Speakers include NAWLA interim c.e.o. Mark Palmer; Mike Wisnefski, v.p., Bloch Lumber; Ken Shields, c.e.o., Conifex, and Paul Quinn, forest products analyst, RBC.

MOUNTAIN States Lumber & Building Material Dealers Association handed out booth awards at its recent buying show to (1) Austin Hardwoods' Ricky Valdez, Jack Liebsock, Dan Steiner, Nancy Shumbat, Randy Hass, Chris Stypinski, Don Herbel, Nadine Herbel.