APA Forecasts Down, Then Up

Production of North American structural wood panel and engineered wood framing products will be down this year, but will rebound in 2008, according to the latest annual five-year forecast from APA-The Engineered Wood Association.

Structural panels (plywood and OSB) production is expected to total 40.2 billion sq. ft. (3/8" basis) this year, down 2.2 billion ft. from 2006 and 2.9 billion from the record mark of 43.1 billion ft. in 2005. Declines are also forecast for engineered wood framing products such as glulam timber, wood I-joists, and laminated veneer lumber (LVL).

The outlook is based on the expectation that U.S. single- and multi-family housing starts will fall this year to 1.52 million units, compared with 1.8 million last year. New residential construction accounts for 777o of I-joist demand, 75Vo of LYL demand, TjVo of OSB demand, and 617o of glulam demand. Softwood plywood, by contrast, is consumed in greater volume by industrial markets, with only about 257a of production going to new residential construction.

North American OSB production is forecast to total 24.55 billion sq. ft. this year, down 7Vo from last year. Plywood output is expected to total 15.69 billion ft., off about I .87o from 2006. Glulam production is forecast to decline 7Vo,I-joists almost 6Vo, and LYL nearly 127o.

The industry's production to capacity ratio also is forecast to drop, from 937o7ast year to 897o this year. During the peak of the housing boom in 2004 and 2005, the rate was 98Vo and 97Vo respectively. This year's ratio, which matches the historical average, is likely to continue over the next five years as substantial new production capacity is added to meet rising demand.

Offshore imports of plywood and OSB, which peaked in 2005 at 2.12 billion sq. ft., fell to 1.71 billion ft. last year and are expected to decline to l.l7 billion feet this year. Nearly 807o of panel imports are plywood.

The outlook appears more promising in the long term, based primarily on the expectation that the housing market will begin recovery next year and continue to grow. U.S. single- and multi-family housing starts are fore- cast to climb to 1.65 million units in 2008, peaking at 1.9 million in 201l.

New Life For 98-Year-Old Yard

Harry T. Williams Lumber Co., Torrance, Ca., has added two key executives to its management team and, effective May 31, will change its operating name to Blue Ox Lumber Co. Blue Ox Lumber will retain its Torrance facility and set up a larger Southern California production facility in mid-2007.

Lonnie Schield. former head of The Terry Cos./Stock Building Supply, has joined HTW as chairman of the board.

Bob Erskin, previously general sales manager for Stock's Southern California division, is new as vice president of sales.

General manager Jason Fraler has been promoted to chief operating officer. Matt Ogden remains president and c.e.o.

Founded in 1909, HTW was acquired by Ogden and an investor group in May 2005.

Schield and Ogden are also principals of Building Materials Partners, LLC, a Los Angeles-based merger & acquisition advisory firm specializing in the building industry.

Our purpose - a long-standing commitment to excellence, providing the finest hardwoods available today for commercial and residential use.

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At Swanson we've synchronized our gears to serve you better. It's a beautiful thing. Call 1-800-331-0831 to find out how we can help your business run smoother.

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