Douglas Fir, Tod.y and Tomorrow

An address delivered bv H. V. Simpson, Executive Vice President, \West Coast Lumbermen's Association, Portland, Oregon, at the onnual meeting oF the Southern California Retail Lumber Association at Los Angeles on April 21st is ever going to reach it. Then we have another figure of 13 billion feet, which is within the realm of possible accomplishment, but not likely to be reached. It is like asking a ball player to hit .500. It might, by super-human effort, be done, but it's not probable ! Then u'e have another figure of 8l billion feet. lVe should make that.

When I rvas first invited to appear before this audience it was to be as part of a panel that might attempt to ansrver some of your questions on lumber. This plan was subsequently changed but I shall nevertheless try today to answer some of the questions that I think you might have asked.

It compares to a batting average of .3@ for a ball player, just a good average performance. 8l billion feet of grorvth in our area means 7 billion feet of lumber annually forever rvith present plywood, shingle and_ pulp requirements also met. Better utilization will mean a still larger yield in products, and better utilization is certain to come.

H, V. Simpson

Recently newspapers have carried headlines to the effect that an acute timber shortage was imminent. There is much confused thirrking on this subject. Whether we eventually have a shortage or not depends on many factors; present stands of timber, growth capacity of our forests, utilization of the forest, and future demand for forest products. Actually there is not enough known today on any of these factors to justify the conclusions that have been drawn.

Listen to these statements from an authoritative source referring to forest depletion in the South-"The South is following the course of other regions, and the remaining supplies of virgin pine are only about one-fifth of the original stand. Within a single decade Southern Pine production promises to exceed by little. if any, the needs of the South." "In 15 years the South will become dependent for its own needs upon large importations of lumber from the Pacific Cbast."

These statements were made in l9N. Norv let's see what happened. In 1945, 25 years after the above statements were made Southern Pine production was 7,728,000,000 feet BM compared to Douglas Fir production of 5,954,000,000 feet BM. Last year, 1946, Southern Pine produ'ction was9,474,ON,000 feet BM compared with Douglas Fir production of 6,253,000,000 feet BM; about 50/o it't excess of Fir production. And in 1947 the South produced, in addition, 4,96I,000,0@ feet BM of hardwoods. Incidentally, national production of hardwoods in 1947 totaled 9,562,000,000 feet BM, an astounding figure to me. More is probably known today about future timber supply thar-r was known in 1920 but there is still no sound reason to doubt that adequate timber supplies will be availablc in the foreseeable future. There is certainly no shortage today.

In the Douglas Fir area we have been tossing around some figures on potential timber growth. We have one estimate that the region might produce 20 billion feet annually. Well, we might, but that's like asking a l>aseball plaver to bat 1.000. It's a standard to shoot at but no one

There is much confusion on another subject: Conservation. You have all heard the accusations aimed at our industry for decades. Despoilers and devastators. Unfortunately there has been some basis for these charges. But let's see what the same authoritative source quoted above says about it. In 1920 there were 80,950,000 acres of forest land in the United States classed as "Poor to Non-stocking areas." In 1936 after 16 years of "despoiling and devastating" this same source lists only 76,738,400 acres as "Poor to Non-stocking areas," and by 1944 this acreage had fur. ther shrunk to 75,303,000 acres. This proves several things to me, the first and most important is that trees grou'. The second is that the lumber inclustry hasn't done as bad a job as l-ras been so frequently pictured. And the third thing is that the figures used by the prophets of gloorn aren't rnuch good anyway.

Actually, there is waste left in the u'oods by the loggers. But there is nothing left in the rvoods that the logger cannot bring out. Our loggers have the equipment, the manpower, the "Knolv-how" to bring in anything that grow's in the forests. I have frequently said they could bring in the mountain tops themselves and that is literally true. But there is no use bringing in tops and limbs and bark and needles when there is no market for them. If no one rvants them down in the valleys they are left on the hillsides. The solution to the logging waste problem is solely a problem of product promotion and marketing. There is no easy quick solution to this. In our area any material coming from the woods in handled by labor rn'hose aver. age wage is $1.79 per hour, then by mills rvhere tl-re average rvage is $1.47 per hour and then the final product is one, tu'o or three thousand miles away from our principal markets. It is a substantial problem to convert limbs, tops and bark from remote mountain sides into usable products at salable prices. Progress is being made, will continue to be made, but a ,complete answer will not be found soon.

There have been some marked changes in distribution of Douglas Fir lumber since pre-rvar. There has been a substantial shift in mill production tovvards the South; an increase in production in Southern Oregon and some in Northern California. Capacity of waterfront mills has dropped about 2O/o but is still more tha,n 5O/o of the total. Meantime cargo business dropped from 3B/o of our total in 1939 to l5/o in 1946. Pre-war over a billion feet annually moved to the Atlantic Coast by water, last year the total was 360 million. Pre-war over a billion feet annually moved to California by water, last year only 167 million moved in this route. And there will probably be a further difference in these figures after July lst when the United States Maritime Commission .ivithdraws its ships from the domestic trade.

This decline in cargo shipments has been due to increased costs of ship operations. Atlantic Coast water rates have increased. from $16.00 pre-war to $21.00 today with operators indicating that further increases are necessary if full service is to be maintained. But rail rates to most Atlantic Coast regions are now competitive with water rates and rvhile this relationship exists further increases in water rates are of questionable value. Steamship operators are asking for an increase in rail rates to be followed with increases in water rates and that subject is being tossed about by the Maritime Commission and the I.C.C. now.

In the California trade rvater rates have increased from $5.50 per M feet to the present rate of $13.50. Rail rates, rneantime have increased only 9 cents per hundred pounds from Portland, 7 cents from Southern Oregon. Except for rough timbers and other heavy items freight charges to California are less by rail than by water. Substantial cuts in operating costs of water transportation must be made if the ,coast-wise fleet is ever again to resume the place in this trade held prewar. Meantime mills in Southern Oregon and Northern California which enjoy a freight difterential into California and whose production probably exceeds 750 million feet annually can be expected to make a strong effort to maintain their position in the California market.

Barring strikes production of lumber in the Western half of Oregon and Washington should total 7,000,000,0@ leet in 1947. Last estimate of number of operating mills is 901 and that is probably too low. Compare this with 616 in 1939, 383 in 1932, 765 in 7929. There is ample timber, ample mill capacity, ample labor. Limiting factor will be transportation. The railroad car shortage is already being felt, will become increasingly serious as the year progresses. Shortage of water transportation and increasing production have thrown a burden on the railroads they cannot handle. And more railroad ,cars are being laid up monthly than are being built. Transportation is our most serious problem today.

There should be ample construction lumber in 1947 ior housing and much left for industrial and commercial use. Flooring, siding and other clear items may continue in short supply. Competition from plywood manufacturers for clear logs affects this. And we were thrown months behind on clear items by the government ,,subsidy" lvhich channeled nearly all clear logs to plywoocl cluring six nronths of 1946. When kiln equipment is available, there will be more dry framing lumber available for those who want it.

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