Dr. Wilson Compton Discusses Lumber Conditions

Seattle, Washington, July 3.-Faced by an abnormally low demand for lumber, the entire lumber industry of the United States is now operating at from 25/o to 5A/o below capacity, according to Dr. Wilson Compton, SecretaryManager of the National Lumber Manufacturers' Association, Washington, D. C., who visited Washington and Oregon lumbermen recently on a study trip around the United States. He had but recently spent several weeks in the South and reported that Southern pine mills are now operating at 25/o below capacity. His observations on lumber conditions throughout the country, as given to the West Coast Lumbermen's Association, follow :

"All regions of lumber industry, for the first time in the industry's history, are sharing the burden of keeping production of lumber within the range of consumption. Southern pine mills have accordingly reduced their production by 25 per cent; the small mills in the southeastern states from 40 to 50 per cent; the hardwoods 30 per cent.

"The clear necessities of the lumber industry's situation are apparent in the fact that during the past 52 weeks new supply has exceeded new demand by the equivalent of over 27 days of production. This is shown in reduced unfilled order files or in increased stocks on hand.

"That this condition is nation-wide and by no means confined to the Pacific Northwest is evident in the record of the principal lumbering regions during the past year. In Southern pine the production has exceeded the demand by over 6 per cent or 19 days''production; in Southern hardwoods 27 days' production; North Carolina pine 4O days; Northern hardwoods 80 davs: Northern hemlock over 7O days; Northern pine 14 dayi; Western pine 41 days; Cali- fornia pine 19 days; California redwood, l8 days, and West Coast 23 days. The lumber stocks in the hands of the sawmills throughout the country generally were not immoderate early last fall but since that time have increased to unwieldly proportions with 'consequent extensive price reductions, reduced operations and irregular employment.

"Substantial and sustained improvement is to be looked for only as the industry systematically reduces its overload of unsold stocks. Lumbermen throughout the country arb accepting this responsibility and continuous gradual improvement in this respect is looked for.

"A fundamental favorlble factor is the accumulating evidence that lumber is more than holding its own in competition with other materials. Also there has been a marked trend toward a return to the single family dwelling type of house construction. This type is the largest user of lumber.. The decline in small house construction during the past year has been less than half of the decline in apartment construction which comparatively uses little lumber. When the national residential building volume returns to within l0 per cent of lts tgD level it is probable therefore that the consumption of lumber for building purposes will be as gieat as it was a year ago. It is now about 4O per cent less.

"I look for a gradual improvement in the lumber situation because of the better control of production which now characterizes almost the entire lumber industry. Improvement from this source is dependent wholly upon the determination of lumber manufacturers themselves. Anv substantial increase in demand is in my judgment not to be looked for this summer or fall. I believe that we shall see marked improvement during the winter and a broad advance in business activity next spring and not until then."