Year's Manufacture

of \(/estern Pine--Probable Fourth Quarter Consumption

Portland, Oregon, September 29-An analysis of the current year's manufacture of Idaho White Pine, Ponderosa Pine, Sugar Pine and associated rvoods, and probable fourth qrlarter consumption was released today by S. V' Fullaway, Jr., Secretary-Manager, Western Pine Association. The statement in full is as follows:

"The third quarter of 1945 witnessed the end of the Japanese war, the lifting of practically all government controls on lumber distribution, the release of many men by war industries, and definite indications of the tremendous potential civilian demand for lumber. Notwithstanding such developments, the decline in the production of lumber in the United States during this period was g'reater than in the two previous quarters. 'The first half reduction ol loo/o under the same 1945 period is compared to a probable l8/o loss in the third quarter and to an even greater recession during the fourth quarter, even though the current strike situation in the West is ended quickly. Developments in the Western Pine region are indlcative of tl-ris condition.

"First quarter lumber production in the \Atestern Pine region rvas down only 2l/o below the same 1944 peroid. This was excellent performance under existing conditions since the 1944 first quarter production r,vas the largest in the industry's history. The decline of more than 8/o under 1944 during the second quarter was due primarily to the manpower situation which was more unfavorable than at any time during the u'ar. Extremely bad rveather in many sections of the region was also a contributing factor. The third quarter record, a decline over 18/o from 1944, was the result of vacations, V-J celebrations, and rvidespread strikes together with the already serious manpou'er shortage. The average 11/, loss in production for the first nine months of. 1945 can be expected to increase further during the fourth quarter even sl.rould a prompt solution of the current strike situation be found.

"To summarize the first 9 months performance of the Western Pine industry in 1945; lumber production was down 7l/o under same 1944 period, shipments were 1O/o lower, and stocks at the end of September are lower at this date than for many years.

"An accurate estimate of fourth quarter shipments (con- sumption) of lumber from the Western Pine industry is impossible because of the indeterminate factors in the situation today. With probably 4O/o of the industry's productive capacity idle because of strikes and the threat of more widespread tie-ups, the only forecast which can be made is that there will be a ready market for every foot of lumber which the industry can ship during the next 3 months.

"'Ihe position of the Western Pine industry today is a difficult one. The average hourly earnings of $1.16 in 1944 were 4O/o above those in 1941 and the average minimum wage advanced 3l /o tn that period. Total production costs increased 28/o during this period and the average tealization for Ponderosa Pine lumber advanced 24/o' Current rvage increases demanded by the striking unions represent, in terms of added costs, from $5.00 per M in some districts 'to $8.00 per M in others.and must of course be reflected in the selling price of lumber if granted. With reconversion and full employment depending so much upon a tremendous ' expansion in the construction industry, which must have a plentiful supply of lumber, further advances in lumber prices are a matter of vital concern to the nation. Such an inflationary factor might well dry up construction demand and seriously delay the economic recovery so necessary to the reemployment of our veterans and of former war industrv workers."

San Francisco Hoo-Hoo Club to Hold

Luncheon at Palace Hotel Oct. 23

San Francisco Hoo-Hoo Club No. 9 will welcome all lumbermen to their luncheon to be held at the French Room, Palace Hotel, San Francisco, on Tuesday, October 23.

The luncheon will start promptly at 12:19, and adjournment will be at 1 :D p.m.

Plans will be formulated for a montl-rly meeting and the rejuvenation of Hoo-Hoo Club No. 9. The committee feels sure that San Francisco lumbermen will like the idea of a monthly luncheon.

After the initial meeting plans will be made for a golf tournament and a Concatenation.

Lumbermen are asked to phone Dave Davis, Sutter 6170; Norm Cords, DOuglas 2469, or Lew Godard, GArfield 7752, it they expect to attend. This will assist the committee in estimating the number to be provided for.