This ls Postwar

By Richcrd A. Colgon, Jr., Executlve Vlce President Notional Lumber Monufoclurers Association

During the dreary war years we fell into a habit of thinking and talking wistfully about the post-war period as though it were some dream millennium, some happy but impossible Shangri-La, complete with lemonade springs, cigarette trees, and a big rock candy mountain. This is it ! We are in it, and the rock candy mountain is there, sure enough, but we find that we need pickaxes and calloused hands to mine it.

It has been often said that the lumber industry would lead the way torvard reconversion. That is still true. War's end brought merely a change of customers, not a need to retool or alter our products or processes.

Our industry, like any other, is governed by the two great variables: supply and demand. All indications point toward a heavy demand for lumber in 1946. The pent up consumer urge and need for new houses, and other products of which wood is a constituent, is straining at the dam. Given the bredks, I am confident that the''lumber industry can produce a supply of its commodity tiat rvill match or surpass the output of the other essentials of construction.

The War Production Board predicts a new construction job of $6,300,000,000 in 1946. Department of Labor figures are much higher. Moderately estimated, lumber's share of these dollars should be about 25 per cent. The market for furniture and similar related products parallels closely the curve of the building market.

The question is: Can lumber cash in on the golderr opportunity before it in 1946? I believe so, granted two major hypotheses: freedom from labor disturbances and a far'orable price structure.

Where shall we set our production sights for 1946? A realistic and attainable figure would be from twenty-eight to thirty billion feet which, I believe, would come pretty close to keeping pace with demand or, at least, copper the capacit,v of the market to absorb. Accepting thirty billion as a working figure it would probably be apportioned, according to a preliminary estimate of the Lumber Branch, WPB, possibly subject to early revision, roughly as follows: rrew housing,4.Oi repairs, 5.6; other construction, 3.0; millr.r'ork and flooring, 1.0; industrial, 10.4; export, 1.0; military, 1.0; and stocks, 4.0.

Construction sirould hit its full stride in the spring. The comparatively quiet interim of fall an<1 rvinter is giving us an opportunity to re-establish our inventories and strengthen oltr position to meet the real rush. A comfortable retail inventorv on a national basis totals from five to six billion feet. At this moment there are slightly less than two ltillion feet in retail yards, and retailers are doubtless ..t.?tuSning qter their stocks nearly as fast as they receive sliipments.

"Greater use may be expected of certain materials introduced within recent years," says a report of the Department of Labor, discussing the outlook for the construction irrdustry, "and there are strong indications that other new materials will be introduced.'

We lumbermen should guard against being lulled to sleep by the present urgent demand for lumber as such. The industry is now entering an era of fierce competition.

If lumber is to cut its full slice of the'rich, potentizrl market offering itself, in the face of the intensive competition that.is battling to encroach on its territory, it will require more concentrated and co-ordinated effort on the part of lumbermen than they have ever put forth before.

The antidotes lie in two words : research and merchatrdising.

A good start has been made in our industry nationally. and by several regional groups, states, and about 3O universities, in addition to the well-recognized work of the U. S. Forest Products Laboratory. But that is only a start. We still lag far behind other major industries both in extent and in proportidnal expenditures for research.

The hardvvood arm of the industry has taken important strides in t'ood research. Eight hardwood associations, six of them affiliated vvith the National Lumber Manufac turers Association, took positive action by forming thc Hardu'ood Research Project of the American Foiest Products Industries. In just 18 months that project has established a pilot plant rvhich has successfully developed a practical plocess for pulping hardwood wastes for the production of fibrous products, and carried forward researclr in manl' other directions which is improving the established uses o{ u'ood and creating new ones.

IResearch, too, can become the most potent factor in corrservation of our forest resources as well as the creation erf new forest industries and countless new jobs. Its ultimatt: objective is the practical use of the whole tree.

The principal present need of the lumber industry is mcr'chandising, aggressive merchandising. Here, too, a begin ning has been made. A trend is visible toward a prepared (not prefabricated), packaged product. Further strides in standardization--and that is the direction in rvhich we are rnoving-lvill pcrmit more processing at the mill. I expect to see a great proportion of lumber delivered partially finished and cut to sizes which will reduce operations and waste on the job. In short, lumber will be delivered to the market as a manufactured rather than a semi-manufactured product. tr{ass production macle possible by standardization will tend to lower, not increase, the costs of lumber to the ultinrate user and make for more satisfactorv merchandise.

Let's sell lrrmber I