PATTERN

yama has already changed the standings, but his likely stardom in the NBA might reconstruct the NBA’s geography. North America tends to import their giants from overseas. Many of basketball’s tallest players have been foreign: Fall is from Senegal, Marjanović is from Serbia, and 7’6” Yao Ming is from China. Indeed, only seven of the tallest twenty-six players in NBA history are from the United States. These players frequently bring the sport to a new part of the world. Ming is considered one of the most infuential players in basketball history because he helped the NBA become the most popular sports league in China. 7’6” Manute Bol from Sudan and 7’2” Dikembe Mutombo from the Democratic Republic of the Congo have extraordinary humanitarian accomplishments and helped establish basketball facilities and youth camps on the African continent. When someone is that tall, even if they’re not from a traditional basketball nation, they come to play in North America but force the game to expand globally. European and African players have been immensely successful this decade. Luka Dončić from Slovenia, Joel Embiid from Cameroon, Nikola Jokić from Serbia, and Giannis Antetokounmpo from Greece are arguably the four best players in today’s NBA. These stars have made the NBA more accessible and popular to overseas fans. In 2019, Reuters reported a 200% increase in NBA viewership in Serbia, Jokic’s country. In 2022, they reported a 272% increase in NBA viewership in Cameroon, the home nation of Joel Embiid. Adding a French superstar to this list might intensify this trend to an unknown new status quo. Basketball is an American sport, but if the majority of the world’s best players come from Europe and Africa, the center of basketball could veritably be pushed overseas. NBA fans make the teenager from the Paris suburbs seem ethereal and godlike, with capacities beyond what any mortal could do. Wembanyama, like LeBron, might somehow exceed these mammoth expectations. But some promises are just too good to be true. History has shown us that there is one obstacle that constantly undermines players who are the size of Wembanyama – injuries. There have only been twenty-six players in NBA history who stand 7’3” or taller. Of those, there are only a handful - I count seven - who have had something of a noteworthy NBA career. Nearly all of these seven skilled skyscrapers were too injury-prone to fulfll their like-sized potential. Hopefully Wembanyama’s story will not follow the arc of Yao Ming. 7’6” Ming was drafted frst overall by the Rockets in 2002 and quickly became the best player ever in his height range. He excelled as a scorer in his frst few seasons, boasting strong post moves and a soft jumpshot. Ming was one of the most valuable injuries. He missed the entire 2018-19 season and has played more than sixty games in a season just three times. 7’4” Ralph Sampson retired at the age of thirty-two due to knee injuries. Of each player above 7’3”, there are only two who had somewhat prolifc NBA careers, never missed an entire season, and were not forced to retire because of an injury. Those two are Rick Smits from the Netherlands and the late Mark Eaton, neither of whom made more than one All-Star team. Injury potential is the critical caveat to consider when we stare up in awe at Victor Wembanyama. Nobody of his height has ever maintained a level of sustained All-Star production for longer than a couple of seasons, and injuries have centers of the early 2000’s but saw his career quickly derail due to a myriad of lower-body injuries. From 2005-2009, Ming missed substantial portions of seasons due to injuries like osteomyelitis, sprained ankles, a broken knee, and stress fractures. He retired in 2011 at the age of thirty-one due to a third fracture in his left foot and never made as much as the Western Conference Finals.

Nearly every talent at this height has a similar story. The career of 7’3” Latvian Kristaps Porziņģis has been marred by not become less frequent in the 2020’s. Predicting Wembanyama’s career requires a negotiation between possibility and precedent, between potential and pattern. His height coupled with his ability to score from any place on the court is unmatched in the history of the sport. His story in the NBA, whatever it may be, will be seismic. If he defes the injury precedent, we will certainly be looking at the NBA’s next young star, and possibly its next all-time great.