Increase in HIV case must not be blamed on tourism

I came a across a news item and The Ghana AIDS Commission (GAC) disclosed that illegal mining is a major factor in the increase of HIV/AIDS infections in the country. The Director-General of the GAC, Dr Kyeremeh Atuahene also indicated that tourism may increase infection rates in the country. In stressing his point, he referred to a recent study that assessed the impact of national resource extraction projects on HIV transmission risks in local communities in sub-Saharan countries, including Ghana. It reports that mine openings increase the odds of HIV infections almost two folds “Mining activities, particularly mining more than double the rate of HIV infections. In addition, tourism may increase infection rates.” Tourism investment are bene cial, but the more tourists who visit a country, the higher the rate of new infection”

Well he did not quote the aspect of the report which blamed tourism investment as a contributing factor to HIV increase infection rates and again he used the word may therefore it is presumed not to be a statement of fact. There is however no doubt that when some tourists visit a country they probably may engage in sexual activities. This is why the UNWHO has a report on the e ect of sex tourism and now sex child tourism. However, it’s also a fact that not all tourists do engage in sex tourism. Again not all travelers are considered tourists or visitors. We don’t classify all travelers to have contributed to tourism statistics. It therefore means that, there may be foreigners who travels to Ghana and yet do not fall into the category of tourist and will not engage into any kind of tourism activity. Travelers such refugees, nomads, diplomats, border post workers, security agents, and so are travelers alright but are not classi ed to have been engaged into tourism therefore may not fall under the category of tourists. Someone travelling for work is not considered a tourists. A tourist is simply de ned as a person who travels to a destination and spends at least a day. A person seizes to be a tourists after spending more than 12 months at the destination. Such a person may be classi ed as an immigrant after spending a year. It could be very confusing for a lay man to classify people who travel to Ghana as tourists when in actual fact they may be here for work such as illegal mining or any other kind of job. Again, when tourists travel to a destination, they have reasons

By Philip Gebu

for doing so. For example health reasons, sport reasons, culture or religious reasons, business i.e. attending a conference or meeting or exhibition, visiting friends or relatives and on. Those who fall under the above categories visit tourist attractions and contribute to tourist statistics. They make use of one form of accommodation, they visit entertainment centers, and they eat in restaurants and engage in shopping of souvenirs etc. Another reason why tourism cannot be blame on HIV infection rate going up is because, there is no relationship between countries that have high rate of tourist arrivals yearly and those countries recording high HIV infections rate.

A look and the list below show the Countries with the highest HIV infection rates in the world. This was published by the world population review 1. Eswatini, 2. Lesotho 3. Botswana 4. South Africa 5. Zimbabwe 6. Namibia 7.Mozambique 8. Zambia 9. Malawi, 10. Equatorial Guinea 12. Uganda, 13. Tanzania 14. Kenya 15. Republic of the Congo 14. Cameroon 17. Gabon 18. Guinea-Bissau 19. Central African Republic 20 Rwanda 21. South Sudan 22. Ivory Coast 23. Togo 24. Haiti 25. Angola 26. Gambia 27. Ghana 28. Mauritius 29. Sierra Leone 30. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 31. Guinea 32. Jamaica 33. Nigeria 34. Guyana 35. Russia, 36. Bahamas,

The above list show that a high number of countries with high HIV infection rate are in Africa. Africa receives just about 5% of all international arrival per UNWO data. If the high in ux of tourists in a country were a contributing factor, then countries like France, USA, China, Germany, UK, Spain that receive the highest number of tourists would have been up in the list. This is clear evidence that clearly that is not the case.

Here are the 10 countries with the most tourism:

1.France - 89.4M

2.Spain - 83.7M

3.United States - 79.3M

4.China - 65.7M

5.Italy - 64.5M

6.Turkey - 51.2M

7.Mexico - 45M

8.Thailand - 39.8M

9.Germany - 39.6M

10.United Kingdom - 39.4M

Source: World population review

Again when it comes to sex tourism, many destinations that facilitate the growth of this type of tourism by legalizing prostitution are nowhere near the country with high infection cases. Below are the list of some of these countries for your own perusal.

1. Hungary

Hungary’s capital Budapest is the hottest sex tourism destination as prostitution is legal here

2. The Caribbean

The Caribbean is a place on earth where female sex tourism is wildly popular. Dominican Republic, Cuba, Jamaica and Barbados are the top sex tourism countries.

3. Japan

In Kabukicho -Tokyo, girls are dressed as nurses, secretaries, maids etc. Paid companionship are acquired by going to the hostess club.

4. Hong Kong is the marketplace for sex. At its bars and restaurants, you will nd full of prostitutes for a wild nightlife as prostitution is legal.

5. Belgium

Prostitution in Belgium is also legal, shocking right? Villa Tinto in Antwerp is one of the cleanest and safest red light areas in Belgium.

6. Brazil

Brazil is very well known for football, but also famous for its exotic-looking beauties. As prostitution is legal in Brazil, you can visit Brazil’s red light area in Rio De Janeiro.

7. Malaysia

If you want to visit Malaysia do spend time in Penang, Kuala Lumpur and Ipoh the hub for sex tourism.

8. Argentina

Buenos Aires, Argentina is famous

By Mohamed A. El-Erian

Nearly two years into the current bout of in ation, the concept of “transitory in ation” is making a comeback as the COVID-related supply shocks dissipate. This comes at a time when it is critically important to keep an open mind about the trajectory of in ation, including by avoiding an over-simpli ed transitory narrative that risks obfuscating the real issues facing the US economy.

“Transitory” is a comforting notion suggesting a short-lived, reversible phenomenon. Critically, the concept assumes away the need to adjust behaviors. After all, if an in ation scare is only temporary, the best way to deal with it is simply to wait it out (or, to use a policy and market term, “look through it”).

That is why this narrative is particularly dangerous. By encouraging complacency and inertia, it could exacerbate an already serious problem and make it harder to solve.

The US Federal Reserve’s initial response to rising in ation is a case in point. In 2021, the world’s most powerful and in uential central bank rushed to characterize higher in ation as transitory. It doubled down on this approach even after the data went against it, refusing to pivot for too long.

The Fed’s repeated mischaracterization delayed crucial policy responses at a time when the for “transitory hotels”, a place where couples can book private room for sex tourism.

9. Singapore

The great part of Singapore is that it has its o cial red-light district known as Geylang. There are more red light areas in Singapore such as Orchard Towers, Petain Road Desker and Rowell Road.

10. Ukraine

Extreme sex tourism in Ukraine can be found in Kiev and Odessa.

11. France

France has so many X rated stu to o er. Cologne is where you can visit Pascha, the rst-ever high rise brothel in Europe.

12. Germany

Germany is known as Europe’s biggest brothels as prostitution is legal in this country.

13. Greece

Athens, its capital is the favorite hotspot, as prostitution is technically legal. Brothels can be found in certain areas of the city like Metaxourgeio and Filis St.

14. Indonesia

Bali is the go-to place in Indonesia for strip clubs, massage parlours and a top-class destination for parties and nightlife. There are a lot of massage parlours and karaoke bars in Kuta, Legian, Sanur and Denpasar. Bali also has a lot of pubs, clubs and beach club bars which o er fantastic food and world-class DJ. Prostitution is a huge business in Bali.

15. Netherlands

The Redlight area in Amsterdam -

Capital of Netherland has an area known as the “De Wallen” famous for sex shows, strip clubs, brothels.

16. Mexico

The most popular destinations in Mexico are Mexico City and Tijuana. The most visited brothels include Zona Norte in Tijuana and Adelitas, the largest and oldest brothel in Mexico..

17. Philippines

Sex tourism in the Philippines is most common in Manila and Boracay.

18. Thailand

Bangkok and Pattaya are popular for Go Go Bars famous for red-light districts and sex shows.

19. Czech Republic

Prostitution is legal in the Czech Republic, which makes it a part of everyone’s bucket list.

20. Cambodia

Street prostitution is widely popular with karaoke bars and massage parlours

21. Spain

Sex tourism in Spain is most common in Madrid, the capital of Spain and also Ibiza and Barcelona. Source: feedingtrends.com/ sex-tourism-countries-legal-prosti tution

The above information is clear on what happens in this high tourist generating countries yet HIV infec tion rate is low. The earlier we looked at the real reasons and no blame tourism the better it will be for Ghana. Tourism has the poten tial of improving our economy. The positive aspect of tourism is what we must focus on and not the negative aspect. persistence of in ation was starting to in uence corporate price-setting and workers’ wage demands. As a result, the Fed not only lost credibility but also in icted unnecessary pain on millions of American households, particularly the most vulnerable segments of the population. While a few economists have never given up on the transitory in ation thesis, the vast majority already realized last year that it was a regrettable analytical and policy error. That makes the current re-emergence of this narrative even more perplexing.

Philip Gebu is a Tourism Lecturer. He is the C.E.O of FoReal Destinations Ltd, a Destinations Management and Marketing Company based in Ghana and with partners in many other countries. Please contact Philip with your comments and suggestions. Write to forealdestinations@gmail.com / info@forealdestinations.com. Visit our website at www.forealdestinations.com or call or WhatsApp +233(0)244295901/0264295901.Visist our social media sites Facebook, Twitter and Instagram: FoReal Destinations.

A recent article in Politico noted that “There is also at least some reason to believe that [the economists and policymakers] who assured [Americans] that in ation would be transitory, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, might have been kind-of-sort-of right, though the transitory period was just longer and uglier than expected.”

This is unfortunate. Not only does it force a time dimension on an inherently behavioral concept, but it also ignores the fact that the Fed’s initially fumbled response forced it into one of the most aggressive, front-loaded series of interest-rate hikes ever, including four consecutive 75-basis-point increases. Moreover, while US in ation has been slowing, it is dangerous to suggest that the problem is behind us.

Looking ahead to the rest of the year and early 2024, three possibilities stand out for me. The rst is orderly disin ation, also known by critics as “immaculate disin ation.” In this scenario, in ation continues to come down steadily toward the Fed’s 2% target without damaging US economic growth and jobs. The dynamics involve primarily a labor market that avoids excessive wage increases while continuing to anchor strong economic activity. Given what else is going on in the economy, I would put the probability of this scenario at 25%.

The second scenario is one in which in ation becomes sticky. The in ation rate continues to decrease but then gets stuck at 3-4% over the second half of this year as goods prices stop declining and services in ation persists. This would force the Fed to choose between crushing the economy to get in ation down to its 2% target, adjusting the target rate to make it more consistent with changing supply conditions, or waiting to see whether the US can live with stable 3-4% in ation. I do not know what the Fed would choose in such a case, but I would put the probability of such sticky in ation at 50%, so I hope it has given this scenario some thought. Lastly, there is the possibility of what we can label “U in ation”: prices head back up late this year and into

2024, as a fully-recovered Chinese economy and the strong US labor market simultaneously drive persistent services in ation and higher goods prices. I would put the probability of this outcome at 25%. This is not just about multiple scenarios with no single one dominating. It is also about probabilities that must be viewed with caution. Former US Secretary of the Treasury Lawrence H. Summers captured well the prevailing mood among many economists: “It’s as di cult an economy to read as I can remember,” he recently said.

This sense of uncertainty is evident in the short-term outlook for economic activity, prices, and monetary policy, as well as long-term structural shifts like the clean-energy transition, the rewiring of global supply chains, and the changing nature of globalization. Heightened geopolitical tensions also play a role. Whatever happens, the worst thing we can do is fall back into complacency. Powell, after championing “transitory in ation” for too long, is now warning against it. “There has been an expectation that [in ation] will go away quickly and painlessly and I don’t think that’s at all guaranteed,” he said recently. “The base case, for me, is that it will take some time. And we will have to do more rate increases…”

Simplistic economic narratives, espe- cially comforting ones that entice those looking for shortcuts, often mislead much more than enlighten. This was the case with the transitory in ation narrative that, while discredited in 2021-22, is now reemerging. It is also the case with those who are predicting with a high degree of condence a US recession (I am not in that camp), only to dismiss it as “short and shallow” in order to regain their economic comfort zone.