Mainland investment slows down FDI-ODI Page 16
Wednesday, August 16 2017 Year VI Nr. 1362 MOP 6.00 Publisher Paulo A. Azevedo Closing Editor Oscar Guijarro Borrowing
Seasonal effects drag down new loans on Mainland Page 8
IPO
Hengqin
Melco explores double listing in States Page 4
Talent recruitment programme thriving Page 5
www.macaubusiness.com Forex
Forecast
Local reserves shrink in July Page 2
IMF finds outlook of Chinese economy improved Page 16
Case closed
Ho Chio Meng
It has been the local case of the century. And yesterday just three of the nine defendants were absolved. With the wife of the former Prosecutor General given a two-year prison sentence suspended for three years and six months. Page 2
Airport service linking the world
AL closes cycle debating housing The last session before local elections. Marked again by interpellation and debates related to public housing. A return to a points-based system to allocate economic units met with widespread approval.
Air Link AirAsia and Airlink Express have launched a direct shuttle bus service. Connecting the Border Gate to Macau International Airport. The service shortens time with just one Customs clearance to navigate. Page 6
Local property prices rebound
Real estate Average prices in the real estate market bounced back in July. With just Coloane experiencing a slight decrease. Consensus is that the tougher mortgage policy implemented by the MSAR Gov’t in May has had little impact. Page 4
Trade relations sour Housing Page 3
HK Hang Seng Index August 15, 2017
27,174.96 -75.27 (-0.28%) Worst Performers
Industrial & Commercial
+2.78%
Hengan International Group
+0.66%
China Shenhua Energy Co
-3.85%
Tencent Holdings Ltd
-1.60%
China Resources Power
+2.66%
Bank of Communications
+0.53%
Wharf Holdings Ltd/The
-3.27%
CNOOC Ltd
-1.49%
Bank of China Ltd
+1.56%
AIA Group Ltd
+0.51%
China Petroleum & Chemical
-3.07%
Cheung Kong Property
-1.31%
AAC Technologies Holdings
+1.49%
Ping An Insurance Group Co
+0.35%
PetroChina Co Ltd
-1.82%
China Merchants Port Hold-
-1.26%
China Construction Bank
+1.09%
CLP Holdings Ltd
+0.30%
Hang Lung Properties Ltd
-1.63%
Geely Automobile Holdings
-1.04%
26° 31° 27° 31° 27° 31° 27° 31° 27° 31° Today
Source: Bloomberg
Best Performers
THU
FRI
I SSN 2226-8294
SAT
SUN
Source: AccuWeather
Intellectual property U.S. President Trump requested China be investigated about alleged theft of intellectual property. The Ministry of Commerce said it will not just sit and watch, if trade relations are affected. Page 8
2 Business Daily Wednesday, August 16 2017
Macau Crime
Winners and losers Six of the nine defendants in the parallel court case connected to former Prosecutor General Ho Chio Meng were found guilty, including the former top official’s wife Nelson Moura nelson.moura@macaubusinessdaily.com
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f the nine defendants in the parallel case against convicted former Prosecutor General Ho Chio Meng, six were convicted yesterday by the Judiciary Council of Macau, while three were absolved of all charges. The former Prosecutor’s wife, Chao Sio Fu, was found guilty of two crimes of failing to correctly declare assets and of one crime of unjustified enrichment, for which she was given a two-year prison sentence suspended for three years and six months. Meanwhile, the Prosecutor’s older brother Ho Chiu Sun and his brother-in-law Lei Kuan Poon were sentenced to 13 years and 12 years in prison, respectively. Businessmen Wong Kwok Wai and Mak Im Tai, were given 14 years and 12 years in prison, with the two being the only defendants already in detention. Of the nine defendants, Wong Kwok Wai and Mak Im Tai were the only ones present at the sentencing yesterday and without the presence of their lawyer Pedro Leal. Accused of several crimes of fraud for enjoying several benefits provided by the Public Prosecutor’s Office after being hired as a “fake employee”, Wang Xiandi was sentenced to six years in prison. All charged defendants will be able to file an appeal against their sentences. Ho Chio Meng will not be able to appeal against the 21 years prison sentence he was handed by the Court of Final Appeal on July 14 due to his former position as a high official of the MSAR. The former chief of the Public Prosecutor’s Office, Antonio Lai Kin Ian, and the former chief of the Group of General Administration, Chan Ka Fai, were both absolved of all charges. Despite
having worked on the fake companies set up by the other defendants, Alex Lam Hou Un, was also absolved. Currently, the whereabouts of Ho Chiu Sun, Lei Kuan Poon, Wang Xiandi and Alex Lam Hou Un are unknown; Chan Ka Fai was uncontactable by the court, while Ho Chio Meng’s wife and Antonio Lai Kin Ian were absent from the sentencing for medical reasons.
Criminal team
Over a three-hour period, Judge Lam Peng Fai read the full sentences for the nine defendants, with the majority of charges pertaining to Wong Kwok Wai, Mak Im Tai, Ho Chiu Sun and Lei Kuan Poon, all of whom were considered to have formed a criminal association with Ho Chio Meng to obtain illicit profits from the Public Prosecutor’s Office. According to the accusations, the defendants created 10 front companies that operated on the 16th floor of the Hotline Building, obtaining more than MOP50 million through 1,300 service contracts for the Public Prosecutor’s Office, during Ho Chio Meng’s term spanning 1999 to 2014. “While Wong Kwok Wai and Mak Im Tai created the
companies (…) Ho Chiu Sun and Lei Kuan Poon were responsible for the companies’ daily operations, accounting and expenses,” Judge Lam announced. Arguments were presented that the former Prosecutor had maintained a special relationship with the defendants, with the judge mentioning Mak Im Tai said he had been a friend of Ho Chio Meng since the 1980’s, attended one birthday party of Ho’s father’s and with records showing that they had met several times in a sauna. Meanwhile, Mak and his wife had six companies under their name solely dedicated to providing services to the Public Prosecutor’s Office, while “rarely appearing at the companies’ offices and only to sign cheques for worker payments”. Wong Kuok Wai was considered someone “of great status” at the department, being allowed to enter the 16th floor while other department employees were not, with its companies continuously receiving service contracts from the public office. Both businessmen were charged as co-authors of one crime of criminal association, one crime of fraud of considerable amount, 49
crimes of money laundering, and 1,096 crimes of illicit economic gains from public funds. Meanwhile, Ho Chiu Sun and Lei Kuan Poon were also charged in the same amount, but being charged of 1,084 crimes of illicit economic gains from public funds, due to 31 cases of the same type having been prescribed. All four defendants were absolved of seven accusations of aggravated money laundering.
Out and about
Meanwhile, Wang Xiandi was charged with four crimes of fraud and one crime of fraud of considerable amount. Ms. Wang was hired for two periods from 2005 to 2006, first as consultant and from 2010 to 2014 as a non-resident worker assistant for judicial matters. In the sentencing it was mentioned that it could not be proved that she had law qualifications that would allow her to obtain a position in the department, with regulations mandating residents should be favoured for public positions with “residents with legal degrees being plenty”. “Other witnesses said they only saw her two or three times and only for one-hour
Money
Foreign exchange reserves reach MOP157.9 bln in July The MSAR’s foreign exchange reserves amounted to MOP157.9 billion (US$19.62 billion) at the end of July, down 0.8 per cent month-on-month, according to the preliminary estimation made by the Monetary Authority of Macao (AMCM). The foreign exchange reserves in July represented 11 times the currency in circulation, or 89.5 per cent of pataca M2 as at the end of May. The pataca trade-weighted effective exchange rate index, according to AMCM data, dropped 0.84 points when compared to June, also going down by 0.73 points year-on-year, to 105.7 in July. This suggests that both monthly and yearly, the exchange rate of the pataca weakened against the currencies of Macau’s major trading partners on a monthly basis, but grew on an annual basis. N.M.
periods (…) She didn’t have to use a uniform, punch in for work or present reports,” Judge Lam said. It was considered that Ms. Wang had obtained several benefits from the department, such as having her phone call expenses covered and having a personal driver take her on several trips to Mainland China, with Ho Chio Meng “wanting to create the illusion” she worked in the department. The court, however, absolved Ms. Wang from the trip to Dubai she took in 2009 with Mr. Ho with expenses paid by the office, since “there was no evidence she collaborated” in planning the trip.
Just following orders
Meanwhile, Antonio Lai Kin Ian and Chan Ka Fai, despite having approved and signed several service contracts during their management positions in the Public Prosecutor’s Office, were absolved of all charges, with the court considering both only following orders and with no knowledge of an illicit scheme. “Mr. Ho was a respected justice authority in Macau; it would be hard for someone to suspect the orders,” the judge concluded.
Business Daily Wednesday, August 16 2017 3
Macau
Affordable housing
Keep calm and carry on Government and legislators agree that the extant regime for attributing economic housing units should be changed by adopting a points-based system, but securing the attendant legislation and the current construction of units should take priority Sheyla Zandonai sheyla.zandonai@macaubusiness.com
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he Secretary for the Land, Transport and Public Works Bureau (DSSOPT), Raimundo Arrais do Rosário, asked legislators to be patient and trust the government in its commitment to improving the situation of public housing in Macau, claiming the incorporation of a points-based system is on the agenda. “We agree with the points-based system, so there is no problem in that regard. We also said we will review the law of social and economic housing,” said the Secretary. Rosário’s answers were voiced during a debate in the Legislative Assembly (AL) in reply to a written interpellation by legislator Au Kam San, who proposed that a pointsbased system – effective in the 1980s and later discontinued – be re-enacted as the preferred method to allocate economic housing in the city. Where several legislators and the Secretary did not agree was on keeping the lists of candidates who do not make every round of public tender opened for applications. “Keeping the lists is a point [on which] I have to disagree. We will not keep the lists because we cannot keep a stable offer.” According to the Secretary, the problem of keeping the lists in view of a limited and unstable property offer is that people’s situation, including conditions such as age, income and patrimony, change with time. “If we open a period of public tender and there are not enough houses available, many people have their situation change in the meantime, so that the criteria for attributing units
may no longer apply when new ones are made available,” he stressed. The Secretary reiterated that it is important that enough residential units are available before the government commits to launching new procedures for tendering. “When I assumed the job, I faced a problem back them. There was a tender, and there were 40,000 candidates and we only had 1,000 units to allocate. Due to time limitation, we had to proceed by attributing them on a random basis,” he remarked. Rosário clarified that there are currently 48,000 public housing units on offer in the city, while the number of private housing units is 172,000. “In the future, we are planning to have some 48,000 more public housing units in Zone A, and there might also be some more 52,000 private units in Zones A and E,” he disclosed. That makes for some 317,000 residential units, both private and public in the future, which the Secretary said he thinks “enough.”
Going about
The Secretary’s stance could be summarised as resistance to compromise with a plan without the proper conditions in hand to materialise it. “It does not make sense to open a tender when we only have some 200 houses available. I said in the past, August 3, that I will do big things and not small things, and for that we need to work on the law first,” Rosário said in reply to Ng Kwok Cheong’s questions about the government’s stance on the law and a potential public consultation on the matter. The Secretary recalled that the law on social housing will be voted upon in the next AL session, after the local elections, and that the law of
economic housing “could be discussed during the LAGs” at the end of the year. Claiming that the will to act fast also has its limits, the DSSOPT Secretary said in reply to Melinda Chan’s comments about the population’s need to receive more information from the government that he is not trying to “deceive” legislators by committing to promises he cannot fulfil. “That which I am capable of doing, I will do. That which is out of my reach, I won’t say I’ll do, while we do not have a timeframe to work on this agenda,” he said, supported by the head of the Housing Bureau, Arnaldo Ernesto dos Santos.
“For the time being, we can say that the quickest units to be available will be the ones on Avenue Wai Long,” Santos said. Wai Long, with some 8,000 planned residential units, became available after the Ao Man Long case, according to a comment made by Au Kam San. Rosário added that they expect to have the public housing units in the Mong Ha area ready by 2020, and that construction in Toi San for the private market would commence this year. “In the short term, we will have more units available in the private sector,” the Secretary pledged. advertisement
4 Business Daily Wednesday, August 16 2017
Macau Opinion
José I. Duarte*
On rental limits The Legislative Assembly has just approved the new law on house rental contracts. Contrary to expectations, the most contentious measure proposed, which would allow constraining rent increases, was not approved, with two legislators abstaining on that particular Article. Speculation on why that happened deserves surely to be analysed, and the conclusions that we might reach would be instructive about the nature of our polity. However, there is a more fundamental question to ask. Was it appropriate, justifiable, or desirable to set such limits? Is it possible that different people, facing dissimilar circumstances or based upon distinct premises, may reach contrasting, yet reasonable, conclusions? How should we choose? As a general rule, provided a market is reasonably competitive and transparent, it is better to leave the settlement of ‘private trades’ to the agents concerned. If one could argue that the housing market in Macau is open, competitive and transparent, the case could be quickly settled, and no limit should be set. Market interference by governments in such situations, however well intentioned, may result in unintended consequences and distortions that create additional problems. Property rights and the freedom of contracting should be the only guides and, consequently, that vote, as it happened, was the best outcome we might expect. However, to my knowledge, those three words – open, competitive, transparent – have never been invoked, now or in the past, by anyone when the topic was the real estate market (or markets) in Macau. Thus, one can argue that the presumption in favour of no governmental interference does not stand by itself anymore. It may be appropriate, then, to look for solutions that in the abstract are less good. The problem becomes how to select wisely, among those that are viable in practice, the one that seems less detrimental for society as a whole. The solution retained and the balance of interests it entails is always, by definition, a political choice. Inevitably, if the limits Article had been approved, some people were likely to lose something, others to benefit. The first would include mainly those who have seen the value of their real estate assets grow extremely fast in the last ten years; the latter would include mainly those who have seen their real, post-rental incomes squeezed in the same process. What the vote told us – and that is possibly the main conclusion we can extract from this episode – is that such a prospect is not politically acceptable. *economist and permanent contributor to this newspaper.
New York Stock Exchange.
Double listing
Spinning off Studio City Studio City International Holdings is considering a potential IPO and listing of its Macau property in the U.S. Sheyla Zandonai sheyla.zandonai@macaubusiness.com
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asino operator Melco International Development is planning to spin off Studio City on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq, according to a filing by the company with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Monday after trading hours. Studio City International Holdings, the operator of the Macau property, has initiated procedures to enable the initial public offering (IPO) of Studio City by submitting ‘on a confidential basis to the SEC [U.S. Securities and exchange Commission] a draft registration statement for a possible IPO in the United States of ADSs [American Depositary Shares] representing ordinary shares of Studio City.’ The company noted that following the ‘completion of the proposed spin-off, the company’s interest in Studio City will be reduced although it is intended that the company will remain Studio City’s majority shareholder after the IPO.
The company added that the reduction of its interest in Studio City will be a ‘disclosable transaction.’ As at the date of announcement, Studio City was 60 per cent owned by Melco Resorts and Entertainment Ltd., which in turn is owned at approximately 51.2 per cent by the company. The remaining 40 per cent stake of Studio City is held by New Cotai Holdings LLC, a Las Vegas-based company incorporated in 2006, of which affiliates include Silver Point Capital LP and Oaktree Capital Management LP. Through its subsidiaries, New Cotai owns and operates casinos. According to a note from brokerage Stanford C. Bernstein although ‘there is limited information on the rationale or the potential economics of any transaction’ there are at least two potential reasons for the IPO offer. ‘New Cotai is looking to sell and wants a price validation,’ the note reads. On the one hand, it ‘may be willing to sell secondary shares in
the IPO.’ On the other hand, Melco ‘may be willing to pay a similar price to acquire New Cotai’s interest,’ it added. The second reason for pursuing the IPO, still according to Bernstein, is that it may be a way to set a valuation on the property. ‘There may be pressure to begin work on Phase 2. New Cotai likely does not want to put new capital into the property. Melco may be willing to dilute NC, but at what valuation?’ the brokerage enquired. Bernstein concluded the note by arguing that the IPO, if materialised, would not make much sense from the perspective of Melco. ‘At this stage, we do not foresee Studio City receiving an adequate valuation based on the property’s current performance and structure. If it were to go ahead, the pricing would be at a substantial discount to Melco valuation in our view.’ Down the line, according to the brokerage analysis, the ‘best option would be for Melco to own the entire entity.’
Property
Housing prices rebounded in July Real estate prices rose 3.4 pct in July having plummeted in June Cecilia U cecilia.u@macaubusinessdaily.com
The city’s average housing price r e b o u n d e d f r o m M O P 94 , 2 6 5 (US$11,698) per square metre in June to MOP97,502 per square metre in July, registering an increase of 3.4 per cent despite the mortgage policy rolled out by the MSAR Government
in May, latest official data released by the Financial Services Bureau (DSF) reveals. Of the three districts, the average housing price in Coloane was MOP131,808, marking it as the only one to experience a decrease in prices, down 1.5 per cent month-on-month. When compared to a year ago, however, prices in Coloane posted an
increase of 46.2 per cent. The average price for second-hand units increase 8.5 per cent in July to MOP92,397 per square metre when compared to MOP85,157 per square metre in June. A slight increase also appeared in the price of off-plan units, which stood at MOP136,338, up 1.6 per cent month-on-month. Regarding the number of transactions, the city saw a month-onmonth drop of 9.8 per cent to 764. DSF data shows that all districts in the city - namely the Macau Peninsula, Taipa Island and Coloane experienced declines in the number of sales in July when compared to a month ago. However, the number of home sales in Taipa was the only district that had decreased when compared to the same month last year, down 57.6 per cent when compared to 118 in July this year and 278 last year. In particular, both transactions for completed and off-plan units decreased, down 27 and 56 sales monthon-month, respectively.
Business Daily Wednesday, August 16 2017 5
Macau Hengqin
Hengqin magnet for overseas Chinese experts Cecilia U cecilia.u@macuabusinessdaily.com
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he neighbouring Chinese city of Hengqin New Area has so far attracted some 46 people via the ‘Thousand Talents Plan’ (TTTP) - amounting to 61 foreign Chinese specialists recruited in the area, according to information released by the official Zhuhai Government portal. The central government introduced TTTP, also known as the Recruitment Programme of Global Experts, in 2008. Consequently, authorities in Hengqin have launched a series of
preferential policies and promotional events such as talent exchanges. With the recruitment of experts from outside of the country, the development of the area’s economy has been significantly enhanced by harnessing their experiences. Startups and innovative projects initiated by these recruited experts relate to electronics and information, new materials, aviation and aerospace, biological products and new drugs, plus new-energy and energy-saving technologies and other fields. An official from Hengqin’s leadership group office responsible for talent work expressed that exponential
growth is being experienced in the number of high-end talent attracted to Hengqin as well as the significant impact of the aggregation of talent. Issued earlier this year by the Hengqin Administration, the Implementation Opinions on Prioritising Talent Development in the Hengqin Free Trade Zone loosens restrictions on incentive offerings. Subsidies of RMB2 million (MOP2.42 million/US$300,300) and RMB5 million are offered to startup and innovation teams led by members of the TTTP or specialists from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Chinese Academy of Engineering upon registering a company.
Moreover, the ‘expert green channel’ opened by the Hengqin Administration enables members of TTTP to complete business registration and obtain a business licence in just one day. In terms of financial support, the authorities are currently striving to provide financial services for projects initiated by high calibre talent, with the support of a state-owned comprehensive financial institution - Hengqin Financial Investment Co. Ltd. - affiliated with the Hengqin New Area Administration Committee. According to the portal, ‘nearly 10’ projects headed by TTTP members have received financial support.
Provident Fund
FSS goes on fact-finding hunt in Hong Kong Both sides also exchanged technology experience regarding the establishment of an electronic information platform Yesterday, officials of the Social Security Fund (FSS) visited their counterparts at the Hong Kong Mandatory Provident Fund Schemes Authority (MPFA) to gain implementation experience and to learn about the latest developments in Hong Kong’s MPF system, using it as a reference for the future implementation of a non-mandatory central provident fund system, as official information system GCS said on its website yesterday. The official source indicated that Iong Kong Io, President of the
Administrative Committee of the FSS, had led a delegation of 11 people to Hong Kong MPFA on August 15 and had had a meeting with Diana Chan Tong Chee-ching, Managing Director of the MPFA, and Cheng Yan-chee, Chief Corporate Affairs Officer and Executive Director. Iong introduced the two-tier social security system of Macau and said that Hong Kong’s MPF system had been implemented for many years and had laid a solid foundation, GCS explained. According to the information the
representatives of MPFA introduced the latest developments in the MPF system, including the Default Investment Strategy launched in recent months and the e-enquiry of personal account service, as well as the work plan of the future establishment of eMPF or central electronic platform of eMPF. Both sides also exchanged technology experience of the establishment of an electronic information platform. The FSS is now building a onestop information platform for the non-mandatory central provident
fund system. Through the platform, account owners will be able to get information on their personal account, its performance and the fees and charges of pension funds in order to achieve information transparency, thus enabling account owners to easily understand their own provident fund situation. Iong described the visit as very fruitful and rewarding in terms of gaining a better insight into the development of the MPF system in Hong Kong and also learning more about the practical ramifications, as per GCS. advertisement
6 Business Daily Wednesday, August 16 2017
Macau
(L-R) Manager of Airlink Express (Macau) Co. Ltd Huang Fu Quan, CEO of AirAsia Hong Kong and Macau, Celia Lao Sio, Eric Fong, director of the marketing department of the Macau International Airport Co., Ltd. Source: Cecilia U.
Aviation
Express Link to connect Gongbei to Airport AirAsia collaborates with Airlink Express (Macau) Co. Ltd, to provide a direct shuttle bus service for individual tourists from the Gongbei Border to Macau International Airport Cecilia U cecilia.u@macaubusinessdaily.com
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n collaboration with Airlink Express (Macau) Co. Ltd., Malaysian budget carrier AirAsia’s branch AirAsia Hong Kong and Macau yesterday launched a direct shuttle bus service - Express Link - specifically for individual tourists from the Gongbei Border to Macau International Airport. According to the manager of Airlink Express (Macau) Co. Ltd., Huang Fu Quan, an hour or more would be saved compared to the regular process. The service would allow individual tourists to enjoy one clearance procedure at one checkpoint at the Gongbei Border and travel directly on shuttle buses to the restricted area ofMacau International Airport (MIA) without crossing the Macau border. “It is very similar to the ferry
transfer at Hong Kong International Airport,” Huang said prior to yesterday’s press conference in Zhuhai. He pointed out that the Express Link has already been serving tourists on package tours and collaborated with 12 flight carriers of MIA with the focus of destinations Southeast Asia, such as Air Macau, Air Seoul and Tiger Taiwan. “Over 80 per cent of MIA carriers collaborate with us and we hope to expand the service to all carriers in the future,” said Huang. In addition to Gongbei Border, the manager said the service is also available at the Hengqin Border, Taipa Ferry Terminal and the Outer Harbour Ferry Terminal. When asked about the number of tourists who use the service, Huang said around 150,000 tourists used the service in a year, with 15,000 tourists a month on average, 80 per cent of whom were Chinese tourists.
Starting yesterday to December 15 this year, the Express Link service for individual travellers is free of charge.
Expectations of significant growth
The CEO of AirAsia Hong Kong and Macau, Celia Lao Sio Wun, told the press that 20 to 50 per cent growth in the volume of AirAsia customers was expected when the service is launched for individual tourists. “Over 80 per cent of our clients are individual tourists,” said Lao. “Therefore the launch of the service would greatly impact our [market of] individual tourists.” With the recent inauguration of the new route between Macau and Jakarta, the CEO expects more Chinese to be tempted to visit the Indonesian city and vice versa. The CEO also revealed that around 30 per cent of AirAsia customers are Chinese tourists from the Pearl River
Delta (PRD). “Different routes have different conditions […] For example, 50 per cent of PRD tourists take the flight to Bangkok but there are fewer for Kuala Lumpur because more Malaysians visit Macau instead,” said Lau. When queried by the press about any future plans, Lau replied that AirAsia is seriously considering routes to islands, while noting that decisions can be made after the Express Link service runs for a certain period of time and reviewed. However, the CEO disclosed that the route connecting Macau to Phuket would be highly possible as the next new route. According to the press release from AirAsia, six routes are currently established with 61 flights operating every week. AirAsia has carried over 8 million customers since its inauguration in 2004.
Aviation
Extended reach to the Philippines Two daily flights to and from Cagayan Province in the Philippines will start operating in the last quarter of this year to serve the MSAR and other Chinese cities The airport in Cagayan Province in the Philippines will operate two daily international flights to and from Macau in the last quarter of this year, according to The Manila Times. Apparently, flights will be provided by International Pacific Airways, which will operate an Airbus 320 and a Boeing 737 to transport tourists and casino players from the MSAR to the province in northeast Luzon Island. The flights will also cater to the logistics needs of Hong Kong incorporated company Pai Hao Investment Company. The Cagayan North International Airport (CNIA) in Lallo town will also host flights from other Chinese
cities, with the Cagayan Economic Zone Authority (CEZA) announcing large firms from Hong Kong and Taipei would be contacted to make use of CNIA as the parking hub for airplanes and helicopters. The airport was completed in 2014 for P1.67 billion (MOP262.7 million/ US$32.6 million) but is still in the process of fulfilling the requirements of the Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines (CAAP) in order to accommodate larger aircraft. In order to fulfill the requirements, Cagayan Airport will still have to purchase and install new equipment for the control tower, navigational aids, and terminal building. N.M.
Business Daily Wednesday, August 16 2017 7
Macau Debt
Winning time Scientific Games Corporation extends maturity of US$3.28 billion debt to 2024
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eveloper o f gaming technology-based products and services Scientific Games Corporation has announced its subsidiary Scientific Games International, Inc. managed to extend the ‘maturity’ of US$3.28 billion (MOP26.43 billion) in existing term loans until August 14, 2024. However, the debt could be ‘subject to accelerated maturity under certain circumstances’ the release announced. Overall, Scientific Games possessed a total outstanding debt of US$8.18 billion as of the end of July, the company’s financial report for the
second quarter of this year revealed. “Our ongoing attention toward improving operating execution, generating stronger cash flows and deleveraging our balance sheet has enabled us to amend our credit agreement on more favourable terms (…) Moreover, by improving our capital structure, future cash flow is further strengthened,” said Kevin Sheehan, Chief Executive Officer of Scientific Games. The company posted total revenue of US$766.3 million in the second quarter of this year, a 5 per cent yearly rise from last year, with net losses of US$39.1 million. N.M.
Overseas gaming
IPI appoints Guam’s former Chief Prosecutor as general counsel The new general counsel of Imperial Pacific International Holdings Ltd. is Guam’s former Chief Prosecutor, the Marianas Variety reported yesterday. During a meeting with members of the House Chamber this week, Philip Tydingco abstained from providing information on current IPI operations claiming he is still
getting acquainted with the matter. Tydingco also met with members of the Senate in a closed-doors meeting in the Senate president’s conference room. Hong Kong-listed IPI is the operator of Best Sunshine casino in Saipan, in the Northern Marina Islands in the Pacific Ocean, a U.S.
Commonwealth, closer to Mainland China than Hawaii. The company, which has the monopoly of casino operations in Saipan, counts several former directors of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) amongst its high-profile members and advisors, according to media reports. S.Z advertisement
8 Business Daily Wednesday, August 16 2017
Greater china Lending
July new loans slip on seasonal effects, tighter rules Household loans accounted for 68 per cent of total new loans last month
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hinese banks extended RMB825.5 billion (US$123.7 billion) in net new yuan loans in July, falling sharply from June due to seasonal effects, restrictive property measures and efforts by regulators to alleviate financial risks. Still, July’s lending was above the RMB800 billion expected by analysts, compared with RMB1.54 trillion in new loans doled out in June. Beijing is trying to reduce financial risks by containing rising debt and defusing property bubbles amid fears they could derail the world’s second-largest economy if not handled well, but policymakers will be treading warily ahead of a key party meeting later this year. In July, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the establishment of a new financial oversight body to improve coordination among regulators with the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) taking on a bigger role in managing risks in the financial market. Household loans, mostly mortgages, fell to RMB561.6 billion in July from RMB738.4 billion in June, according to Reuters calculations based on the central bank’s data. Household loans accounted
for 68 per cent of total new loans last month, up from 48 per cent in June. Economists believe Beijing will handily meet its 2017 growth target of around 6.5 per cent after a surprisingly strong expansion of 6.9 per cent in the first half of the year. But most China watchers expect activity will slow slightly in coming months as signalled by a raft of data for July, mainly as higher financing costs and government measures to cool the heated property market dent economic output. The weighted average lending rate for non-financial firms, a key indicator reflecting corporate funding costs, rose 14 basis points in the second quarter to 5.67 per cent, following a rise of 26 basis points in the first quarter to 5.53 per cent, the central bank said in its second-quarter policy report. Broad M2 money supply (M2) in July grew 9.2 per cent from a year earlier - the slowest since records began in 1996, central bank data showed yesterday, missing forecasts for an expansion of 9.4 per cent and compared with June’s 9.4 per cent. China’s central bank has said that the slowing M2
growth could be a “new normal” due to the stepped-up crackdown on risky shadow lending activities. Total social financing (TSF), a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, fell to RMB1.22 trillion in July from RMB1.78 trillion in June, the data showed.
Modest tightening
The PBOC switched to a modest tightening stance at the start of this year to help cool explosive growth in debt, but it injected substantial liquidity in June to avoid a
quarter-end cash crunch, market participants said. The central bank will strike a balance between deleveraging and maintaining stable liquidity, it said in the latest quarterly policy report that underscored policymakers’ efforts to keep the economy on an even keel. Policy insiders say China’s central bank will hold off on further monetary policy tightening and could even slightly loosen its grip in coming months as a deleveraging drive threatens economic growth and job
creation ahead of a leadership reshuffle The PBOC said on Friday that it is zeroing in on negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) which are popular funding vehicles for smaller banks to borrow from each other to speculate in wealth management products (WMPs), which are often linked to shadow banking. Outstanding yuan loans at the end of July grew 13.2 per cent from a year earlier, faster than economists’ expectations of 13 per cent and above June’s 12.9 per cent. Reuters
Intellectual property
Beijing says it will defend interests if U.S. harms trade ties Trump administration officials have estimated that theft of intellectual property by China could be worth as much as US$600 billion Michael Martina
China will take action to defend its interests if the United States damages trade ties, the Ministry of Commerce said yesterday, after U.S. President Donald Trump authorised an inquiry into China’s alleged theft of intellectual property. Trump’s move, the first direct trade measure by his administration against China, comes at a time of heightened tension over North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, though it is unlikely to prompt near-term change in commercial ties. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will have a year to look into whether to launch a formal investigation of China’s policies on intellectual property, which the White House and U.S. industry groups say are harming U.S. businesses and jobs. The United States should respect objective facts, act prudently, abide by its World Trade Organization pledges, and not destroy principles of multilateralism, an unidentified spokesman of China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement. “If the U.S. side ignores the facts, and disrespects multilateral trade principles in taking actions that harms both sides trade interests, China will absolutely not sit by and watch, will inevitably adopt all appropriate measures, and resolutely safeguard China’s lawful rights.” The ministry said the United States should “treasure” the cooperation and favourable state of China-U.S.
trade relations, and warned that any U.S. action to damage ties would “harm both sides trade relations and companies”. China was continuously strengthening its administrative and judicial protections for intellectual property, the ministry added. China’s policy of forcing foreign companies to turn over technology to Chinese joint venture partners and failure to crack down on intellectual property theft have been longstanding problems for several U.S. administrations. Trump administration officials have estimated that theft of intellectual property by China could be worth as much as US$600 billion. Experts on China trade policy said the long lead time could allow Beijing to discuss some of the issues raised
by Washington without being seen to cave to pressure under the threat of reprisals. China repeatedly rebuffed attempts by previous U.S. administrations to take action on its IP practices, and has insisted it rigorously protects intellectual property. State news agency Xinhua said the U.S. investigation is a unilateralist “baring of fangs” that will hurt both sides. Jacob Parker, vice president of China operations at the U.S.-China Business Council said Trump’s memo is only the beginning of the process, but that he expected a decision on how to move forward from the administration in 60-90 days. “I think it will be much faster than a year,” Parker said. Coming to terms on a bilateral
investment treaty would be a better way to get China to address the IP issues, he added. “This isn’t a surprise. Our companies have been honing their crisis communications and internal planning processes since the election. The rhetoric that came up during the campaign led them to take proactive action then. They are prepared, aware and ready for these types of actions going forward.” The investigation is likely to cast a shadow over U.S. relations with China, its largest trading partner, just as Trump is asking it to put more pressure on North Korea to give up its nuclear programme. Trump has suggested he would be more amenable to going easy on China over trade if it were more aggressive in reining in North Korea. China has said the issues of trade with the United States should not be linked to the North Korea problem. Ken Jarrett, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, said in a statement yesterday that trade and North Korea should not be linked, but that the investigation was a “measured and necessary step”. “The president’s executive order reflects building frustration with Chinese trade and market entry policies, particularly those that pressure American companies to part with technologies and intellectual property in exchange for market access,” he said. “Chinese companies operating in the United States do not face this pressure.” Reuters
Business Daily Wednesday, August 16 2017 9
Greater China Adviser comments
In Brief
Central bank unlikely to tighten policy further in H2 The adviser’s comments come at a time China’s de-risking program to contain debt continues China’s central bank is unlikely to tighten policy further in the second half of this year, which could cap rises in market interest rates, a central bank adviser yesterday was quoted as saying by the state-run China News Service. Under its “prudent and neutral” stance, the central bank shifted to slight tightening at the start of the year, guiding market interest rates higher during the first quarter. But it later pumped out substantial cash in response to a surge in short-term rates caused by a financial deleveraging drive. “Financial market rates, in general, will not go up again in the second half, but will stay stable or even fall slightly,” Sheng Songcheng, an advisor to the People’s Bank of China, was quoted as saying.
The weighted average lending rate for non-financial firms, a key indicator reflecting corporate funding costs, rose 14 basis points in the second quarter to 5.67 per cent, following an increase of 26 basis points in the first quarter to 5.53 per cent, the PBOC said on Friday in its second-quarter policy report. The adviser’s comments come at a time China’s de-risking program to contain debt continues, and as weaker-than-expected July data suggested the economy is starting to cool under the weight of higher financing costs and a slowing property market. In June, sources told Reuters that the central bank would hold off on further policy tightening and could even slightly loosen its grip in coming months.
Responding to market expectations that the PBOC could cut banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) again if it aims to achieve a steady money supply growth, Sheng said an RRR cut would send too strong a signal on policy loosening to the market. “The central bank is much happier to increase money supply via monetary tools like SLF, MLF and PSL,” he added. Standing Lending Facility, Medium-term Lending Facility and Pledged Supplementary Lending are the monetary policy tools devised by the PBOC to provide short-term funds to the interbank market. The PBOC is expected to cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points (bps) in the first quarter of 2018 to 16.5 per cent, a Reuters poll showed in July. Reuters
Debt
National economic speed bump may reignite bond default wave China’s industrial profits have had a good run, growing 19.1 per cent in June Lianting Tu
China had unexpected buoyancy in its economy to thank for an easing off in corporate defaults in the first half. But as growth shows signs of pulling back, the question is: will it last? Despite alarm over the risks posed by China’s daunting debt pile ticking up in the first six months of the year, the country actually saw a drop in corporate distress, with 0.27 per cent of issuers defaulting, versus 0.55 per cent in all of 2016, according to China Lianhe Credit Rating Co. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., too, saw Chinese company leverage drop in the first half. Economists including Raymond Yeung at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. put the improvement down to the economy, which seemed to turn a corner in late-2016. Growth accelerated in the fourth and first quarters, the first successive gains in seven years, which bolstered company earnings, says Yeung. “The macroeconomic conditions are much more favourable to Chinese corporates compared with the same time last year,” Yeung said in an interview in Hong Kong. “However, this cyclical adjustment will still face a limit. It is still too early to call the improvement a trend.”
Disappointing data
And cracks may already be forming. Data Monday showed growth in both retail sales and factory output slackened in July, coming in weaker than economists had anticipated. In the same Aug. 4 research note in which they detailed the decline in corporate leverage, Goldman analysts including Asian credit research chief, Kenneth Ho, said defaults could pick up “as the pace of growth in the second half of 2017 slows.” Beijing’s campaign to reduce overcapacity and re-orient the US$11 trillion economy away from industrial and low-end manufacturing drivers has helped fuel profit growth this year, says Xia Le, chief Asia economist at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA in Hong Kong. But it’s “unimaginable” that the government will persist with the reform program while ignoring how it is affecting downstream industries, he said. “That’s why I expect profit growth to slow down.”
Profit growth
China’s industrial profits have had a good run, growing 19.1 per cent
in June. The move to cut capacity has helped bolster commodity prices such as coal, steel and cement, and the recovery in those sectors -- which saw the most bond defaults over the past two years -- means banks’ asset quality is improving, Goldman analysts wrote in a note dated Aug. 3. After the second-quarter read on Chinese gross domestic product came in better than expected, analysts boosted their forecasts for the coming quarters. The world’s second-largest economy will grow 6.7 per cent this year, from a previous forecast of 6.6 per cent, according to a survey conducted July 17-24. “Low housing inventory, recovering private investment, and a strong infrastructure pipeline suggest that economic growth will remain robust for the foreseeable future,” said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economics at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. “Over the longer term, a further improvement of corporate fundamentals will not only depend on stable demand and cash flow, but also on structural reforms to raise productivity growth.”
Builder defaults
Bloomberg calculations put the number of corporate bond defaults at 14 in the first half, versus 17 in the same period of 2016. For the second
half, the tally is already at five defaults, with Wuyang Construction Group Co. failing to pay back some principal and interest on an RMB800 million bond puttable, which in turn triggered its default on a RMB560 million note, according to a filing on Monday. ANZ’s Yeung says the stronger yuan also underpinned company profits and helped stave off defaults by mitigating foreign-currency losses. The currency has gained 3.3 per cent versus the dollar over the past three months but forecasters still expect it to weaken from current levels by the end of the year. China’s property sector is also losing steam, which could underpin a wider economic pullback -- read more here. Jenny Zeng, a Hong Kong-based portfolio manager and head of credit research for Asian fixed income at AllianceBernstein Holding LP, is worried about the refinancing factor. Chinese firms will see RMB3.1 trillion (US$465 billion) of local debt mature next year, on top of the record RMB5.2 trillion coming due in 2017, data compiled by Bloomberg show. “We are yet to see better earnings translating into better cash flow,” she said, adding refinancing was a “key risk” faced by private companies in China going in to next year. Bloomberg News
Expansion
Cheniere Energy sets up Mainland office U.S. natural gas exporter Cheniere Energy Inc is setting up an office in Beijing to help it clinch long-term supply deals with Chinese buyers, four industry sources said. Cheniere, which held extensive talks with China earlier this year, will be the first operator of a U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility to establish a presence in the country. The move follows an agreement in May between the U.S and China to boost trade under the so-called 100day trade talks that will allow Chinese buyers to purchase long-term supplies from the U.S. directly. Debt
Official sees limited impact from NCD inclusion in risk assessment China’s planned inclusion of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) - a popular short-term debt instrument for smaller banks - in its quarterly risk assessments will have limited impact on the banking sector, a senior central bank official said. The People’s Bank of China said on Friday that it would start to include NCDs, tenors within one-year, issued by banks with assets of more than RMB500 billion (US$74.94 billion) in its quarterly macro-prudential assessment (MPA) from the first quarter of 2018. Data safety
Guizhou province to oversee Apple’s data project China’s Guizhou province, where Apple Inc has set up its first data centre in the country, plans to create a working committee chaired by communist party members to oversee the U.S. company’s iCloud facility. China has started to police the Internet more closely and introduced a new cyber security law on June 1 that imposes tougher controls over data than in Europe and the United States, including mandating that companies store all data within China and pass security reviews. The Guizhou government said on its website that the Apple iCloud working committee would be made up of around 10 members.
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South China Sea
Philippines weighs energy deal with Beijing The Philippines is considering potential ways to jointly develop oil and gas resources with China in a disputed part of the South China Sea, according to Foreign Affairs Secretary Alan Peter Cayetano. Any joint ventures would conform to Philippine law and wouldn’t lead to the loss of Philippine territory, Cayetano told a House of Representatives hearing yesterday in Manila. Shortly afterward, he sought a closed-door meeting with legislators, citing national security. “If we can come up with a commercial deal better than Malampaya in the disputed areas, how can any Filipino argue with that?” Cayetano said.
10 Business Daily Wednesday, August 16 2017
Greater China Investment
Airbnb will quadruple its Mainland tech team to target millennials The company has handled more than 5.3 million guest arrivals by Chinese travellers at its listings around the world Yoolim Lee and Haslinda Amin
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irbnb I n c . i s ramping up its investment in China, quadrupling its engineering team over the next 12 months to focus on affluent millennials who’re increasingly exploring the world’s second largest economy. Airbnb will grow its technical cohort to more than 100
in Beijing -- the only office outside the U.S. where the home-sharing giant employs an engineering division, according to co-founder Nathan Blecharczyk. That move, part of a previously announced doubling in investment and tripling in local workers to 300, will help it tailor a relaunched service for some 400 million younger people acquiring a taste for independent travel, he added.
“The most important thing is that we have an engineering team on the ground and local people in charge of the China business,” Blecharczyk, Airbnb’s chief strategy officer, said in an interview in Singapore yesterday. “They understand their country the best. Even though we are a global technology platform, they have the technical ability to go and change things.” After years of feeling out
the market, the world’s fourth-largest start-up in 2017 appointed a Chinese chief and declared its intention to take on domestic market leaders such as Tujia and Xiaozhu. The company, which counts China’s sovereign wealth fund among its investors, is wooing a young middle class by adopting the moniker “Aibiying” (welcome each other with love), integrating local payment options and providing 24-7 customer support in Mandarin. But it’s adopting a strategy it deems more sustainable than local rivals that’re raising “unreal” amounts of cash and burning it quickly to drive growth “artificially,” Blecharczyk said. While it established a dedicated engineering team for China in the U.S. about three years ago, it relocated to Beijing at the end of 2016. Domestic travel within the nation now accounts for almost half of its business there, he said. It currently lists 100,000 homes, still well behind sector leaders such as Tujia. Airbnb however has handled more than
5.3 million guest arrivals by Chinese travellers at its listings around the world. Outbound travel from China -the world’s biggest source of international tourists -- grew 142 per cent in 2016.
“The most important thing is that we have an engineering team on the ground and local people in charge of the China business” Nathan Blecharczyk, Airbnb’s chief strategy officer “Some might say we got off to a slow start in China, but if you look at how we’ve grown, it demonstrates a strong organic traction that I think is going to benefit us in the long term,” he said. Bloomberg News
Technology
Mainland drone maker steps up security after U.S. Army ban DJI had about 70 per cent share of the global commercial and consumer drone market Alwyn Scott
Chinese drone maker SZ DJI Technology Co Ltd is tightening data security on its drones after the U.S. Army ordered its members to stop using DJI drones because of “cyber vulnerabilities,” a company official told Reuters on Monday.
‘Goldman analysts estimated the market, including military, to be worth more than US$100 billion over the next five years’ The privately held Shenzhen-based company is speeding deployment of a system that allows users to disconnect from the internet during flights, making it impossible for flight logs, photos or videos to reach
DJI’s computer servers, Brendan Schulman, vice president of policy and legal affairs at DJI, said in an interview. The security measure had been in the works for several months but DJI said it is bringing it out sooner than planned because of an Army memo earlier this month that barred service members from using DJI drones. DJI said it has not had any communication with the Army about the issue. The Army had no immediate comment. The other branches of the military have not banned the use of drones by DJI, the largest consumer drone maker with millions of the devices sold. “The Army memo caused customers to express renewed concern about data security” and prompted DJI to speed up data security changes, Schulman said. Some drone pilots choose to share images and video with DJI, which makes them visible on its SkyPixel website. But many businesses and government customers have raised concerns about sensitive video and pictures - such as movie footage or images of critical infrastructure and want to ensure it is never sent
to DJI, he said. DJI said it does not collect images, video or flight logs from users unless they share them. But turning on the new “local data mode” will prevent accidental syncing with DJI’s servers. Its drones do not rely on an internet connection to fly. Cutting the link between the internet and DJI’s controller apps that run on tablets and mobile phones will disable updates of maps, flight restrictions and other data that the controller application receives from the internet while the drone is in use, he said. Schulman said DJI plans to make
updates to its controller applications available by the end of September, earlier than previously planned. The new apps with local data mode may not be available in all countries if there are regulations that require pilots to have the most updated maps and information. DJI had about 70 per cent share of the global commercial and consumer drone market, analysts at Goldman Sachs and Oppenheimer estimated in 2016. Goldman analysts estimated the market, including military, to be worth more than US$100 billion over the next five years. Reuters
Business Daily Wednesday, August 16 2017 11
Asia Diplomacy
South Korea to prevent war at all costs, President Moon says Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe spoke with Trump by phone yesterday and agreed on the need to prevent North Korea from launching missiles more engagement with North Korea following almost a decade of conservative rule. Last month, he said that under the right circumstances he’s willing to meet Kim “ anytime, anywhere.” The U.S. has almost 30,000 military personnel stationed in South Korea and has assured the country’s security since the Korean War ended without a peace treaty almost six decades ago. South Korea is positioned to suffer the most from any hostilities with North Korea, with Seoul’s 10 million residents in range of North Korea’s artillery and rockets.
Peter Pae
S
outh Korean President Moon Jae-in said that any military action against Kim Jong Un’s regime requires his nation’s approval, and vowed to prevent war at all costs. “There will be no war repeated on the Korean Peninsula,” Moon said in a speech yesterday marking the anniversary of the end of Japanese occupation in the 1940s. Military action against North Korea should be decided by “ourselves and not by anyone else,” he said. While Moon said that South Korea would work with the U.S. to counter security threats, he emphasized the need to focus on diplomatic efforts. Sanctions were designed to bring North Korea to the negotiating table over its nuclear and missile weapons programs, he said. The comments from a key U.S. ally contrast with the threats of war coming from President Donald Trump, who vowed to unleash “fire and fury” on Pyongyang if Kim persists with advancements in his arsenal, particularly intercontinental ballistic missiles. Trump’s rhetoric has raised concerns that a miscalculation -- or unilateral action by the U.S. -- could spark a military conflict that risks devastating North Korea’s neighbours. The diminishing prospects of war have helped equities to rally. Stock indexes from Tokyo to Hong Kong to Sydney climbed on Tuesday after the S&P 500 Index surged 1 per cent, while havens such as gold, Treasuries and the yen retreated.
‘Game on’
Defence Secretary Jim Mattis warned on Monday that it would be “game on” for war if North Korea fired
Dr. Strangelove
South Korean President Moon Jae-in delivers a speech at the Sejong Center For The Performing Arts in Seoul, South Korea, 15 August 2017. Source: Lusa
missiles that hit the U.S. or its territories, including the Pacific island of Guam. “It could escalate into war very quickly -- yes, that’s called war,” Mattis told reporter at the Pentagon. “If they shoot at the United States, I’m assuming they hit the United States -- if they do that, then it’s ‘game on’.” Asked if he considers Guam part of the U.S., he said, “Yeah, it sure is.” Kim discussed plans to fire four intermediate-range ballistic missiles over Japan into waters near Guam with his commanding officers during an inspection of military forces on Monday, the state-run Korean Central News Agency reported. The North Korean leader said he will watch the U.S.’s conduct “a little more” and praised his strategic force for drawing up “a close and careful plan,” KCNA said. North Korea first fired a missile over Japan in 1998, prompting the Japanese
government to initiate its current ballistic missile-defence system with the U.S. While a second attempt failed in 2005, North Korea again succeeded in launching one in 2009 that flew over northern Japan and continued for another 3,000 kilometres before landing in the Pacific.
Unprecedented tensions
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe spoke with Trump by phone yesterday and agreed on the need to prevent North Korea from launching missiles. Pyongyang is raising tensions to unprecedented levels, Abe told reporters in Tokyo. “In this situation, we are highly appreciative of President Trump’s commitment to the safety of U.S. allies,” Abe said. He said it’s important to work with South Korea and countries like China and Russia to stop the threat from North Korea. Moon took power in May promising
One of Moon’s advisers earlier this week criticized Trump’s rhetoric against North Korea, calling it “very unusual.” The president’s comments have raised concerns that the U.S. might be willing to accept collateral damage among its Asian allies to protect the American homeland. South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican, told NBC News that Trump told him that “if thousands die, they’re going to die over there.” Joseph Dunford, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said last month that it was “unimaginable” to allow North Korea to develop the capability to strike a U.S. city with a nuclear weapon. On a trip to Seoul this week, Dunford told Moon that the Trump administration is putting a priority on diplomatic and economic pressure. Mattis echoed those comments on Monday, cautioning against portraying his words as a virtual declaration of war. “It’s not that I’m over here -- Dr. Strangelove,” he said, but “you don’t shoot at people in this world unless you want to bear the consequences.” Bloomberg News
Real estate
Singapore home sales rise 35 per cent in July Property prices have dropped for 15 straight quarters, the longest slide since the data were first published in 1975 Pooja Thakur
Singapore home sales rose 35 per cent in July, as more new projects were launched. Developers sold 1,108 units last month, compared with 820 in June, according to Urban Redevelopment Authority data released yesterday. A total of 692 new units were offered, up from 159 in June, the data showed. Singapore’s leaders, determined to keep a lid on home prices in the city-state, have unleashed a series of cooling measures since 2009. The government in March rolled back some property-market restrictions for the first time in eight years, although it has also cautioned that
those adjustments don’t signal an unwinding of the measures. Property prices have dropped for 15 straight quarters, the longest slide since the data were first published in 1975. An index tracking private residential prices fell 0.1 per cent in the three months ended June 30 from the previous quarter. Home values have dropped 12 per cent from their 2013 peak. Developers are seeing signs of a recovery. CapitaLand Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Lim Ming Yan this month said the residential property market is “bottoming out,” while City Developments Ltd. Executive Chairman Kwek Leng Beng said the “heartbeat” of Singapore’s residential property market appears to be getting
stronger. Projects launched last month include The Martin Modern, which
sold 109 of 210 units marketed, while Symphony Suites sold 73 units last month. Bloomberg News
12 Business Daily Wednesday, August 16 2017
Asia Consumption
Japanese shoppers open their wallets, raising hopes for sustained revival There have been previous such advances that have turned out to be temporary during Japan’s many years of economic weakness since the early 1990s people to move to better-paying jobs, are also starting to pay off.
Stanley White and Chehui Peh
J
apan’s cautious consumers are starting to loosen up, spending more on cars and home appliances and offering hope that domestic demand - and not just exports - will be strong enough to reflate an economy that has been sluggish for many years. The tightest labour market since the 1970s seems to be a playing a role. Temporary and part-time workers are getting paid more to help fill shifts, and that is helping lift sales. Consumption was the main driver behind Japan’s second-quarter economic growth, which expanded at an annualized 4 per cent, gross domestic product data released on Monday showed, the strongest in more than two years and much higher than the growth achieved by the United States and the European Union. “I ended a big project today, and I wanted to give a present to my girlfriend who has always been supportive, so I bought her a Tiffany necklace,” said Yusuke Kawashima, a 29-year-old freelance software programmer in Tokyo. “Quite a few of my friends have said they either had a pay raise or received a large bonus, so I think they’ll be spending as well.” Wage hikes for part-time workers in Japan have accelerated, rising to 2.3 per cent year-on-year in May from 0.7 per cent in August 2016. Salaries for full-time workers, though, have been little changed. Susumu Ikeda, 70, says shoppers are buying more at his musical instrument shop in Tokyo’s tony Ginza shopping district, and senses the economy is taking a turn for the better. “Some may be cynical about our growth, but compared to our worst we are getting much better,” he said. Furniture maker Nitori Holdings Ltd, convenience store leader Seven
Deflationary mind-set
& i Holdings Co and coffee shop chain Doutor Nichires Holdings all reported rising domestic sales in their recent earnings reports. Sales of new cars accelerated in April-June from the previous quarter, and GDP data showed higher purchases of appliances, such as air conditioners. Private consumption - which accounts for almost 60 per cent of GDP - rose in the second quarter at the fastest pace in more than three years, offering the most definitive sign yet that consumers have shaken off the impact of a sales tax hike in 2014. For some, like 31-year-old Tokyo office worker Natsuki Abe, the economy just feels healthier. “I do think the economy is doing better than it was before, but it’s just a feeling,” she said. “My company is doing well, and I think I do have the money to spend on things that I like and want. I mainly spend on clothes, as I want to look good.”
Competing for workers
There have been previous such advances that have turned out to be temporary during Japan’s many years of economic weakness since the early 1990s, with consumer spending often a culprit as it loses momentum.
This time may be different, though, some economists argue. That is because the unemployment rate is now low enough - 2.8 per cent - to lift wages. Many economists say Japan reaches full employment, the lowest level of joblessness before upward wage pressures arise, when the jobless rate falls to 3 per cent. Japan’s aging population, and the resulting big drop in the size of its workforce, is a major reason for this. “Wage growth will accelerate going forward, because companies have to raise wages to compete for new workers and to retain workers,” said Takuji Adia, chief economist at Societe Generale. “This happens when the unemployment rate falls below 3 per cent.” When Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office in late 2012, the jobless rate was at 4.3 per cent. Consumer spending boomed as a stock-market rally fuelled optimism about the new government but then lost momentum because wages were not rising that much. Some of Abe’s structural reforms, such as narrowing the wage gap between contractors and full-time employees doing the same work, raising the minimum wage, and encouraging
One major concern is that Japan’s consumer spending revival has yet to translate into faster inflation; core consumer prices rose a meagre 0.4 per cent in the year to June and inflation expectations remain weak. The United States and Europe are also struggling to generate inflation despite improving growth, but Japan’s case is peculiar because of the decades of deflation and stagnation following the collapse of the bubble economy in the early 1990s. That’s produced a deflationary mind-set among many people that cannot easily be changed. And as the country’s population shrinks and ages, saving for the future has become a top priority for many. “My husband’s parents and my parents are getting old, and their pensions will not be enough for them to sustain themselves,” said Chisa Tsubuki, a 28-year-old childcare worker. “So in anticipation for the future where nursing and healthcare costs will rise for us, we need to save.” Still, the economy looks like it is at long last starting to move in the direction the Bank of Japan predicted. The BOJ’s tankan survey shows more service-sector companies want to raise prices in the future. One example is family restaurant operator Skylark Co, whose president said earlier this month that it will hike prices from October. “Consumers’ perception of retail prices are changing, and people no longer buy something simply because it’s cheap,” a spokesman at the Takashimaya department store chain said. “During our summer sale, the items that were not discounted actually sold better than the discounted items.” Reuters
Banking
HSBC to hire Goldman veterans for Asia equities HSBC Holdings Plc to boost equities business in Asia Pacific region by hiring three executives from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Cathy Chan
HSBC Holdings Plc has hired three executives from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. as it seeks to bolster its equities business in the Asia-Pacific region, people familiar with the matter said. Michael Chandler, formerly Goldman Sachs’s co-head of Asia-Pacific research sales, has joined HSBC as head of equity sales for the region, the people said, asking not to be named as they are not authorized to discuss personnel matters. Martin Zoll, an equity derivatives specialist at Goldman Sachs, will become a global head of corporate equity derivatives and equity
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linked products, one of the people said. Chito Jeyarajah has been hired to help run HSBC’s equity capital markets business in the region, the people said. HSBC is bolstering its equities presence in the region after it became the first foreign bank to win permission for a majority-owned securities joint venture in China, a structure its competitors have unsuccessfully lobbied to secure for several years. Other banks have also been trimming jobs and cutting expenses in regional equities in recent years, at a time of tightening commissions and lackluster trading volumes. Additional pressure has been created ahead of the
January implementation of the MiFID II regulations in the European Union, which will force banks to charge separately for their equity research. Lauren Fraser, a Hong Kong-based representative for HSBC, declined to comment, as did Connie Ling, a Hong Kong-based spokeswoman at Goldman Sachs. Zoll will start around the end of October and will focus on broadening HSBC’s equity derivatives and equity-linked offerings, one of the people said.
Goldman Sachs last year to run the business. Earlier this year, it appointed Hossein Zaimi as Hong Kong-based global head of equities, and in June, it won approval to invest US$135 million for
51 per cent stake in a China securities joint venture with Qianhai Financial Holding s Co., based in southern China. Jeyarajah’s planned move to HSBC was reported earlier by IFR Asia. Bloomberg News
China venture
HSBC is reshaping its investment-banking unit after hiring Matthew Westerman from
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Business Daily Wednesday, August 16 2017 13
Asia Monetary policy
In Brief
Inflation surge shines light on India’s central bank minutes India sees worst business environment since the 2008 financial crisis, as inflation grows by 2.4 per cent year-on-year in July Investors will parse the minutes of India’s central bank meeting with a keen eye today as a steeper-than-expected rebound in inflation raises questions about this month’s interest-rate reduction and scope for further stimulus. Consumer prices rose 2.4 per cent in July from a year earlier, data showed Monday, faster than the 2.1 per cent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey and in line with the Reserve Bank of India’s 2 per cent to 3.5 per cent projection for April to September.
“From now on, India’s inflation rate is going to rise” Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings & Research
Wholesale inflation also accelerated, indicating pipeline pressures are building up just two weeks after the RBI cut its benchmark rate to a seven-year low and urged the government to help spur investment. The rupee strengthened in the offshore market soon after the CPI data was published. Investors who bought the rupee by borrowing dollars have earned some 10 per cent this year, the highest carry returns among Asian currencies. Local markets were shut yesterday for India’s Independence Day holiday. With indicators pointing to the worst business environment since the 2008 financial crisis, investors will assess how seriously Governor
Urjit Patel is looking at the growth-inflation trade off. He and his deputy Viral Acharya broke ranks with a colleague to vote for easing following months of pressure from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration for a cut. “Demand-driven inflation is still fairly subdued and that should worry policymakers,” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist at L&T Finance Holdings Ltd. in Mumbai. “It still remains below the RBI’s target and growth is also a worry.” Much of the surge in July’s prices can be explained by the fact that they’re no longer flattered by last year’s costs. A drop in food prices slowed to 0.3 per cent in July from 2.1 per cent in June. There are also additional signs of stress, including potential pressures from higher allowances for government employees. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to begin reducing its balance sheet this year too, which may trigger outflows from emerging markets. “As the favorable base effect unwinds, vegetable prices record a seasonal hardening and the impact of house rent allowances pushes housing inflation further, we expect the CPI inflation to ramp up over the next few months,” said Aditi Nayar, principal
economist at ICRA Ltd. near New Delhi. CPI will rise past 4 per cent by October, which means there’s little chance of any more policy rate cuts in the year through March, she said. However, when compared with global peers like Indonesia, India’s inflation is still relatively low and Modi’s Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian has been arguing that there’s a structural shift lower. In his economic survey published last week, Subramanian said the government will find it tough to meet his projection of as much as 7.5 per cent growth in the current fiscal year. His pessimism stems from a festering bad loan crisis that’s pushing companies to cut debt, keeping investments low and limiting job creation. To ward off rising stress among farmers, who form the bulk of voters, Indian states may write off their loans, further boosting price pressures. “From now on, India’s inflation rate is going to rise,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings & Research. “Lack of consumer demand and pricing power of producers makes conduct of monetary policy very difficult.” Bloomberg News
Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said yesterday that strong housing investment was the main driver of economic growth in the second quarter, while capital spending also contributed to growth. Speaking after a cabinet meeting, Aso also told reporters that capital expenditure could grow further as machinery orders remain at high levels. The government said on Monday second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at the fastest pace in more than two years as consumer and company spending picked up. Commerce balance
Indonesia posts first trade deficit in 19 months Indonesia posted its first trade deficit since late 2015 in July, as imports surged more than exports did, the statistics bureau said yesterday. Southeast Asia’s largest economy had a trade deficit of US$271.2 million in July. A Reuters poll had forecast a US$1.1 billion surplus. June’s trade surplus was revised yesterday to US$1.67 billion. During July, both exports and imports increased sharply on an annual basis, because of a low base from July 2016, when the Eid al-Fitr holidays at the end of the Muslim fasting month fell. This year, the holidays were in June.
Britain’s May to lead business delegation to Japan
Australia’s ANZ Bank rides housing boom to Q3 profit rise ANZ warned that a new mortgage levy on the country’s “Big Four” banks will impact that margin in the fourth quarter Australia’s No. 4 lender Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd said a booming housing market helped lift third-quarter profit 5.3 per cent above the previous two quarters, although it warned a new mortgage levy would squeeze margins. In a limited trading update yesterday, ANZ said cash net profit, which excludes various one-off items, was A$1.79 billion (US$1.41 billion) for the three months to June 30. It gave no comparable figure from the same period a year earlier, when it reported results only for the first nine months. ANZ said its A$243 million bad debt provision was “a decline”, without elaborating. Excluding provisions, profit grew just 0.3 per cent from
Japan’s Q2 GDP mainly driven by brisk housing investment
Commercial trip
Mortgages
Byron Kaye
Finance Minister
the average of the prior two quarters, while revenue fell 0.3 per cent, signs cost-cutting helped prop up profit growth. CEO Shayne Elliott said the bank had been cutting its business lending book and trying to build its owner-occupier mortgage book, which grew faster than the industry average. “We’ve been growing our business in owner-occupied home loans much faster than the market and actually really reweighting our portfolio towards that,” Elliott said in a transcript of an in-house interview published by the bank. The Australian economy had been “muddling through” with weak business confidence, but the credit environment was “benign”, he added.
The net interest margin, the difference between what a bank pays to borrow money and what it charges customers for loans, grew by a fifth of a percentage point, not counting a weaker contribution from markets. “It’s a very, very low loan-loss charge, so pre-provisioning it probably was a slight miss,” CLSA analyst
Key Points ANZ Q3 cash profit A$1.79 bln, up 5.3 pct Q1, Q2 average Bank provides no comparable earnings figures Bad debt provision “declined”, owner occupier mortgages rose Ed Henning said. “The number (including bad debt provisions) will probably slightly beat the consensus expectations for the cash NPAT.” ANZ warned that a new mortgage levy on the country’s “Big Four” banks - itself, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Westpac Banking Corp and National Australia Bank Ltd - plus Macquarie Group will impact that margin in the fourth quarter. On Aug. 11, NAB posted a 5 per cent rise in third-quarter cash profit, thanks to lower bad debt charges and higher interest rates, and on Aug. 9 CBA said growth in home lending and lower expenses had helped it beat forecasts with a A$9.83 billion annual profit. Reuters
British Prime Minister Theresa May will visit Japan this month for talks with her Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe to discuss Brexit, trade and defence, her office said yesterday. May will lead a business delegation drawn from a range of different sectors on the trip, which comes as her government looks to strengthen its relationship with key international investors ahead of Britain’s exit from the European Union. “The delegation will showcase the strength of British business, the shared confidence in the UK-Japan economic relationship as we leave the EU, and the potential for future growth,” a spokesman from May’s office said. Bond probe
Sri Lanka’s c.bank suspends bank’s primary dealer status Sri Lanka’s central bank suspended yesterday the primary dealer status of Pan Asia Banking Corporation (PABC) for six months, following an investigation into alleged irregularities in government bond sales. The central bank said in a statement it imposed the suspension because of the findings of an investigation carried out by the monetary authority related to PABC’s transactions with Perpetual Treasuries Ltd in the government securities market. Last month, the central bank suspended the business operations of Perpetual Treasuries, which is being investigated in relation to possible irregularities at a 30-year government bond sale in 2015.
14 Business Daily Wednesday, August 16 2017
International In Brief Angola
S&P downgrades debt but maintains outlook Rating agency Standard and Poor’s has downgraded Angola’s risk from B to B- claiming that the country is facing worsening economic perspectives and a gradual increase in state debt, but kept its outlook at ‘stable’. Standard and Poor’s has warned that is may take this step because of the lower oil prices and their effects on the country’s economy. Some important state-owned banks are going through restructuring processes laying on additional layers of risk for the government, the agency said. Trade
Europe’s tainted eggs hurting Netherlands The egg contamination scandal sweeping across Europe will hurt trade from the Netherlands, the region’s top exporter, and may spur other countries to increase domestic production, according to Chris Elliott, director of the Institute for Global Food Security. Worries about eggs tainted with the insecticide fipronil have led supermarkets in Germany, the UK, and Switzerland to pull fresh eggs, deli filler and egg sandwiches off the shelves. The incidents were first reported in the Netherlands and Belgium, and public prosecutors have opened investigations.
GDP
Domestic demand keeps Germany driving euro zone Overall growth was dampened by net foreign trade since exports rose less strongly than imports Michael Nienaber
S
trong household spending, rising state expenditure and higher company investments consolidated Germany’s role as the euro zone growth engine in the second quarter, although accelerating imports meant growth came in just below expectations. Seasonally and calendar-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.6 per cent on the quarter, the Federal Statistics Office said yesterday. This was slightly weaker than the consensus forecast of 0.7 per cent in a Reuters poll. But the growth rate for the first quarter was revised up to 0.7 per cent from 0.6 per cent, and the April-June expansion marked a 12th consecutive quarter of growth. “The German economy is proving its staying power, the upswing continues,” Bankhaus Lampe economist Alexander Krueger said, adding that the European Central Bank’s low interest rates were boosting the economy. The Statistics Office said that growth in the April-June period was mainly driven by domestic demand as households and state authorities
increased their spending and companies boosted investment in buildings and equipment. But overall growth was dampened by net foreign trade since exports rose less strongly than imports, which the vibrant domestic economy sucked in at a higher rate.
Risks ahead
“Germany’s economic success story goes on and on and on,” ING Bank analyst Carsten Brzeski said, adding there was very little reason to fear a sudden end to the current performance. He cautioned, however, that the main drivers supporting the domestic economy, such as rising employment, rising wages and increased government spending, could lose some momentum in the coming quarters. “The same holds for the export sector, where a stronger euro, weaker-than-expected U.S. growth and Brexit uncertainty could take some wind out of the sails without bringing exports to a halt,” Brzeski said. Unadjusted data had the economy growing by 0.8 per cent on the year in the second quarter. This compared with a consensus forecast of 1.9 per
Minister comments
Brazilian democracy risked without defence boost Brazil’s is at risk if the armed forces are not properly funded to fight organized crime, according democracy to the country’s Defence Minister, Raul Jungmann. The army has taken part in operations carried out by the Rio de Janeiro state’s security forces against organized crime. At the beginning of this month, a joint task force of around 5,000 military personnel and police officers targeted factions involved in drug-trafficking and cargo theft. Some communities are beyond the control of the state, Jungmann said, and criminal organizations stop their residents from voting freely. Trade
U.S. expected to impose steel tariffs U.S. President Donald Trump is still expected to impose steel import tariffs on national security grounds despite the delay of a probe into the matter and pursuit of multilateral talks to reduce excess capacity, industry players and trade experts say. U.S. steel stocks have fallen nearly 10 per cent since Trump delayed the release of the so-called “Section 232” review of the U.S. steel industry last month, partly reflecting fears that his promises to protect the industry may not materialise. But industry analysts say the falls might be overdone, and there is reason to think that import relief may still happen.
cent. Adjusted for calendar affects, the yearly growth rate was 2.1 per cent in the April-June period. The Statistics Office will publish its detailed GDP growth data on Aug. 25. The data, coming less than six weeks before a federal election in which Chancellor Angela Merkel seeks to win a fourth term, underlines the continued strength of the German economy compared with its peers.
Key Points GDP growth rate of 0.6 pct q/q in Q2 Slightly below forecast of 0.7 pct Q1 growth rate revised up to 0.7 pct Household and state consumption drive growth The French economy, the second-largest in the euro zone, grew 0.5 per cent in the second quarter, helped by stronger exports, according to preliminary data. In Italy, the third-biggest economy in the 19-member bloc, the national central bank expects a quarterly expansion roughly in line with the first quarter’s increase of 0.4 per cent. Preliminary data are due on Wednesday. The Spanish economy keeps powering ahead, however, with a growth rate of 0.9 per cent in the April-June quarter. This was well above the euro zone average of 0.6 per cent, according to preliminary estimates released by the European Union’s statistics agency this month. Outside the euro zone, Britain’s economic output grew by 0.3 per cent on the quarter, edging up from 0.2 per cent in the first three months. Reuters
Inflation
U.K. growth, inflation outlook cut, weakening BOE rate-hike case Economists in a Bloomberg survey see the first hike coming in the second quarter of 2019, slightly earlier than previously estimated Jill Ward and Harumi Ichikura
The U.K. economy will lose more momentum this year than previously forecast and inflation’s peak may be shy of 3 per cent, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists, lower than an earlier estimate. Growth is likely to slow to 1.2 per cent in 2018, the least since 2009, when output was shrinking. “The UK economy is now locked into a moderate growth path,” said Raj Badiani, an economist at IHS Markit. “Critically, the balance of risks is pointing to the south, with a higher probability of a downward rather than upward revision in the next few months.” The economy has cooled this year as accelerating inflation crimps household spending, undermining a key driver of growth in recent years. Data this week is set to show a continuation of that trend, with price growth picking up to 2.7 per cent in July from 2.6 per cent in June. That’s faster than average incomes are raising, which is leaving retail sales struggling to gain traction. Although the headline rate of inflation is expected to remain well above the BOE’s target rate of 2 per cent,
that overshoot is fully explained by the decline in sterling since the U.K. voted to leave the EU rather than domestic price pressures, according to Bloomberg Intelligence economists Dan Hanson and Jamie Murray.
“The balance of risks is pointing to the south, with a higher probability of a downward rather than upward revision in the next few months” Raj Badiani, economist at IHS Markit
If growth continues to be subdued and the economy maintains some spare capacity, policy makers should be able to tolerate above target inflation, the BI analysts said, limiting
the chances of a rate hike this year or next. Economists now see the pace of UK expansion slowing to 1.5 per cent this year, based on the latest Bloomberg survey, compared with the BOE’s forecast of 1.7 per cent. The central bank lowered its projections for growth and wages earlier this month, and Governor Mark Carney said that uncertainty surrounding the U.K.’s exit from the European Union will weigh on consumer and business decisions. The institution sees GDP rising 1.6 per cent in 2018, with investment and exports at least partially offsetting the slowdown in consumer spending. Despite the downgrade, policy makers Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders maintained their push for a 25 basis-point rate hike this month, which would reverse the cut put in place in the aftermath of the 2016 Brexit referendum. Carney was among the majority voting for no change, though he said that the key rate may need to rise by a “somewhat greater extent” than investors anticipate. Economists in the Bloomberg survey see the first hike coming in the second quarter of 2019, slightly earlier than previously estimated. Bloomberg News
Business Daily Wednesday, August 16 2017 15
Opinion Business Wires
The Korean Herald The world’s top three manufacturers of memory chips saw their combined revenue from server chips gain about 30 per cent for the second quarter of this year, helped by a surging demand for high-end servers, according to industry data yesterday. The combined server DRAM revenue of three suppliers -Samsung Electronics Co., SK hynix Inc. and Micron Technology Inc. -- stood at US$4.43 billion for the second quarter, up 30.1 per cent from a quarter ago, the data by industry tracker DRAMeXchange showed.
Taipei Times President Tsai Ing-wen’s approval rating has dropped to below 30 per cent, the lowest of her presidency, while Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je has an approval rating of about 70 per cent nationwide, one of the highest for any politician in the nation’s history, according to a monthly poll by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation released yesterday. Tsai’s approval rating has fallen to 29.8 per cent, the lowest since the foundation began tracking her popularity in May last year, with 50 per cent of respondents saying they are unsatisfied with the way she leads the government, the third-highest dissatisfaction rate since she took office.
The Times of India Reliance Industries and its partner BP Plc of UK will by year end submit a revised investment plan for the four satellite gas discoveries in the flagging KG-D6 block by integrating their development with two other nearby finds. Senior executives in the joint venture said four deepsea satellite gas discoveries -- D--2, 6, 19 and 22 are planned to be developed together with D29 and D30 finds in the Krishna Godavari basin of KG-D6 block. The four satellites and the other two finds are the ones on which RIL and BP had in midJune this year announced investing Rs 40,000 crore.
Inquirer.net Filipinos working and living abroad sent more money home in June, a threemonth high of US$2.467 billion, partly as the peso slid to almost 11-year lows and in time for the opening of classes that month. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Gov. Nestor A. Espenilla Jr. yesterday also attributed the 5.7-per cent growth in cash remittances last June from US$2.334 billion a year ago to sustained deployment of overseas Filipino workers. The latest BSP data showed that the yearon-year increase in remittances coursed through banks in June was also the fastest in three months.
Gold rally is fuelled by Trump’s tweets, but that’s not enough
G
old’s rally in recent weeks may be its first boosted by Twitter, but for the gains to sustain it will likely take more than just the ramping up of global geopolitical tensions amid bellicose tweets from U.S. President Donald Trump. Spot gold has jumped 7 per cent from its recent intra-day low on July 10 to close at US$1,288.81 an ounce on Aug. 11, it’s highest in two months. The precious metal is up 12 per cent since the end of last year, and while there have been other factors behind the gains, the froth in the rally is almost certainly down to its appeal as a safe haven in times of heightened political risk. Trump’s use of the social media site Twitter to threaten “fire and fury” against North Korea certainly raised the tensions around the isolated dictatorship’s pursuit of nuclear weapons capable of reaching the continental United States. The U.S. President later doubled down on his tweet, saying perhaps it didn’t go far enough, raising fears that Trump would go as far to consider a preemptive strike on North Korea, a move that could escalate into retaliatory attacks on neighbours and U.S. allies South Korea and Japan. The geopolitical tensions stoked by Trump are grist to the mill for gold, but it’s also likely the case that a sustainable rally for the yellow metal can’t be built on the threat of conflict alone. At some point the conflict either becomes real, or the tensions start to ease as calmer heads make their presence felt on all sides of the dispute. For gold to continue making headway, it’s generally the case that all, or at least most, of the drivers of the price are working in tandem. Gold slumped after Trump’s election last November as investors took the view that the insurgent Republican leader would be good for economic growth and thus inflation in the United States, thereby prompting interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve. With this optimism fading, but not quite gone yet, the outlook for monetary tightening by the Fed is being scaled back, which removes a headwind for gold. The state of physical demand, particularly in the top two consumers China and India, tends to take a backseat in coverage of the gold market, but it is a crucial component. On the positive side, India’s demand appears to be regaining strength, with World Gold Council data showing the South Asian nation’s demand at 167.4 tonnes in the second quarter, up strongly compared to both the 131 tonnes in the previous quarter and the 122.1 tonnes in the same period last year. It’s possible that India’s gold imports will continue
“
Clyde Russell a Reuters columnist
to increase in the second half of this year, given demand created by a good monsoon season, which boosts rural incomes.
China uncertainty
The picture is somewhat mixed for China, with overall second quarter demand at 200.3 tonnes, down from 281.5 tonnes in the first quarter, but up from the 185.8 tonnes in the same period in 2016. Jewellery demand growth in China has been on a declining trend in recent years, while investment demand for bars and coins has also slowed in the first half of this year from the second half of 2016 as fears over Yuan depreciation and government restrictions on other types of investment eased. India’s consumer demand is up by 69.1 tonnes in the first half of 2017 compared to the same period last year, while China’s is 35.5 tonnes higher. Together, this additional demand of 104.6 tonnes has helped support prices, but by itself probably isn’t enough to drive a sustained rally. For that to happen, investor flows will have to make more of a contribution, something that becomes possible if investors continue to seek a safe haven, or see increasing chances of declines in global equity markets as the optimism surrounding Trump’s hoped-for economic stimulus and tax cuts fades. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for gold recorded net inflows of just 56 tonnes in the second quarter, down from 111.9 tonnes in the first quarter, according to the Council statistics. The net flows into ETFs in the first half of 2017 was 167.9 tonnes, down 71 per cent from the 579.4 tonnes reported for the first half of 2016. So far inflows into gold ETFs have yet to show any meaningful response to rising tensions, total holdings across all funds monitored by Reuters ticked up to 53.15 million ounces in the week to Aug. 11, a gain of just 0.15 per cent from the 53.07 million ounces on Aug. 9, which was the lowest since early February. Overall, there is little to suggest that gold’s current rally has solid foundations, rather it is hostage to the news cycle. Gold does have some positives in the form of stronger physical demand in the top two consumers, and prospects of a less steep monetary tightening curve in the United States. The question for investors is whether those factors are enough to justify the continuing the current rally, or are they already reflected in the gains seen so far this year. Reuters
Spot gold has jumped 7 per cent from its recent intra-day low on July 10 to close at US$1,288.81 an ounce on Aug. 11
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16 Business Daily Wednesday, August 16 2017
Closing Cash flow
Mainland’s shadow banking takes a hit
China’s giant shadow banking industry shrank for the first time in nine months during July -- evidence Beijing’s campaign to quash risks to the financial system may be starting to bear fruit. At the same time, however, traditional forms of lending are seeing a renaissance. Net corporate bond issuance has been jumping as nonfinancial corporations opt for cheaper sources of finance than borrowing in the shadow banking sector, where costs have surged amid the government crackdown.
As China stares down a twice-a-decade leadership re-shuffle later this year, President Xi Jinping has made financial-sector stability a top priority. Regulators have been hiking short-term interest rates, reining in banks and targeting property speculators in their drive, which has pushed the cost of off-balance sheet lending higher, to the benefit of conventional borrowing. To be sure, the slowdown in lending in July is partly seasonal. This partly explains why key indicators like industrial output and investment pulled back, while overall activity held up. Bloomberg News
Forecasts
IMF sees faster Chinese growth as rising debt adds to risks Expansion is expected to remain unchanged this year at 6.7 per cent owing to momentum from last year’s stimulus, the IMF said
T
he International Monetary Fund increased its estimate for China’s average annual growth rate through 2020, while warning that it would come at the cost of rising debt that increases medium-term risks to growth. China’s economy will expand at an average pace of 6.4 per cent annually from 2017 through 2020, compared with a 6 per cent estimate a year earlier, the IMF said in its Article IV review. Household, corporate and government debt will increase to almost 300 per cent of gross domestic product by 2022 from 242 per cent last year, fund staff estimated. President Xi Jinping has been pushing financial regulators to address excessive borrowing at state enterprises and has said their indebtedness is “the priority of priorities.” But ending the addiction to debt requires measures that include allowing companies to fail and sweeping shifts in the way capital is allocated that policy makers have yet to fully embrace. “Given strong growth momentum, now is the time to intensify these deleveraging efforts,” the IMF said.
“Reform progress needs to accelerate to secure medium-term stability and address the risk that the current trajectory of the economy could eventually lead to a sharp adjustment.”
Sustainable credit
Lending to the private sector rose 16 per cent in 2016, twice the pace of nominal GDP growth, and since 2008 has risen about 80 per centage points to about 175 per cent of output, the fund said. Such large increases in other countries have been associated with sharp growth slowdowns and often financial crises, it said. IMF staff estimated that a healthier pace of credit growth would have kept real GDP growth around 5.5 per cent from 2012
to 2016, rather than 7.25 per cent. China is transitioning to more sustainable growth, as reforms are advancing widely, policy makers have taken initial steps to facilitate private-sector deleveraging and credit growth and corporate debt are both increasing more slowly, the IMF said. Progress also has been made on reducing excess industrial capacity, strengthening local government borrowing policies, and addressing financial sector risks, it said. Expansion is expected to remain unchanged this year at 6.7 per cent owing to momentum from last year’s stimulus, the IMF said. Inflation also is seen unchanged from a year earlier at 2 per cent this year, it said. The
future objective should be for policy makers to focus more on the quality and sustainability of growth and less on quantitative targets, it said. With the spotlight on trade tensions as U.S. President Donald Trump mulls a probe of how China handles intellectual property, the IMF report had some positive news for Beijing.
Trade surplus
China’s current account surplus, seen by many economists as a better measure than the merchandise trade surplus, fell almost 1 per centage point to 1.7 per cent of GDP last year on stronger domestic demand, the IMF said. It’s forecast to fall to 1.4 per cent of GDP this year. The narrower surplus was driven by a sharp recovery in imports and continued strength in tourism outflows, the IMF said. It added that data limitations suggest tourism imports may be overstated by half a per centage point of GDP and said the surplus is still “moderately stronger” than is consistent with China’s medium-term fundamentals. The yuan remains broadly in line with fundamentals, the report said. For more sustainable growth, China must boost
consumption and reduce its high savings rate in part by spending more on health care and pensions, the IMF said. At 46 per cent of GDP, China’s national savings rate is more than double the global average, it said.
“Given strong growth momentum, now is the time to intensify these deleveraging efforts” IMF statement China also needs to increase productivity, which can be done by better use of resources being allocated to unprofitable “zombie” companies, overcapacity industries and state-owned enterprises, the report said. It estimated that better allocation could increase the contribution of productivity to growth by 1 per centage point over the long term. Bloomberg News
Markets
Investment
Education
Wanda bonds trade like they’re junk despite AAA rating
China FDI and ODI gauges down
Harvard keeps top spot in Chinese ranking of best universities
Nearly two months after reports about Chinese regulators’ scrutiny of the country’s top dealmakers, the concerns have left a mark in the local bond market, where one of those companies is facing yields double the national average. Yields on onshore securities without put or call options of Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Co., which has an AAA rating onshore, are above 9 per cent, according to valuations compiled by Chinabond. That compares with the average 4.55 per cent yield on top-rated notes due in three years from all corporate borrowers in the country. It’s also higher than the 5.8 per cent average yield on threeyear notes with AA- ratings, considered junk in China. People familiar with the matter said in June that the Chinese banking regulator asked some banks to provide information on overseas loans made to top dealmakers including Dalian Wanda Group Co., the parent of the property subsidiary. Wanda’s disposal of tourism and hotel assets to two rival Chinese developers last month has added to investors’ confusion. “Chinese investors are concerned about non-operational risks,” said Qin Han, chief bond analyst at Guotai Junan Securities Co. in Shanghai. “Uncertainties about the risks may stay for some time. But it doesn’t mean any particular problem with the company’s credit fundamental.” Bloomberg News
Foreign direct investment into China in January-July fell 1.2 per cent from a year earlier to RMB485.42 billion (US$72.66 billion), the commerce ministry said yesterday. FDI in China’s high-tech manufacturing sector rose 8.3 per cent in the first seven months from a year earlier, while investment in its high-tech services sector grew 16.8 per cent, the ministry said in a statement. The ministry did not provide data for July FDI. According to Reuters calculation, July FDI declined 11.8 per cent from a year earlier to 43.88 billion yuan. China’s non-financial outbound direct investment plummeted 44.3 per cent on year to US$57.2 billion in January-July the ministry said. ODI in 50 countries involved in China’s “Belt and Road” initiative totalled US$7.65 billion in the January-July period, accounting for 13.4 per cent of the total, the ministry said. “Irrational” outbound investment had been curbed effectively, the ministry added. Rapid falls in the yuan currency prompted Beijing to tighten control over funds moving out of China since late last year, as it moved swiftly to quash expectations of a further steep depreciation and safeguard its reserves. Reuters
U.S. universities retained their dominance in an annual Chinese ranking of the world’s top academic institutions, with Harvard staying number one for the 15th straight year. In a top 10, little changed from last year, Stanford held on to the second spot in the “Academic Ranking of World Universities” compiled by the independent Shanghai Ranking Consultancy, which has ranked the top 500 institutions each year since 2003. A statement accompanying this year’s results said the rankings were based on a range of indicators including alumni and staff winning Nobel Prizes and Fields Medals, and papers published in the journals “Nature” and “Science”. The University of Cambridge and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology each moved up a slot to take third and fourth as the University of California at Berkeley dropped two rungs to fifth position. Princeton, Oxford, Columbia, the California Institute of Technology, and the University of Chicago rounded out the top 10. China’s prestigious Tsinghua University was one of the biggest upward movers, climbing 10 spots to number 48, entering the top 50 for the first time. AFP