Mainland keeps climbing steps of per capita GDP ranking Wealth Page 8
Tuesday, June 27 2017 Year VI Nr. 1326 MOP 6.00 Publisher Paulo A. Azevedo Closing Editor Kelsey Wilhelm Arrests
Crown employees charged with promoting gambling could get off in weeks due to time already served Page 7
M&A
Melco’s Cyprus consortium signs deal with gov’t for casino monopoly Page 6
www.macaubusinessdaily.com
LRT
New changes to Barra LRT section to cost gov’t MOP27.3 mln Page 2
Stock exchange
HKEx CEO Charles Li unveils future vision for neighbouring markets Page 10
Infrastructure
The fourth bridge linking the peninsula to Taipa has a group to oversee and manage the project and its budget, however Beijing has yet to confirm the project and a contractor for its construction has not been named, something “not very usual” says an expert. But given that the oversight group will receive MOP189 mln for their work, the bridge project is going to be sizeable. Page 2
Inevitable mass
Running for the third time as a directly-elected candidate in the Legislative Assembly elections, Agnes Lam, former journalist and current academic, says the gov’t has spoiled the population, failing to offer residents proper assistance and leaving them to seek jobs in casinos or the public sector, but not becoming competitive. Letting the gaming sector grow too fast and giving it ‘the best pieces of land’ are part of the problem. Interview | Politics Pages 4 & 5
HK Hang Seng Index June 26, 2017
Gaming Although the MSAR will never see the back of all VIP, the water-on-stone of mass will win out. Predicting CAGR growth of 4 pct for VIP, but 11 pct for mass between 2016-2022, any changes to pawnshop operations or UnionPay, or intensification of the anti-corruption campaign, could accelerate the process. Focusing on further penetration of the China market will be key in driving mass, say analysts. Page 6
The big-small Chinese player’s dichotomy Financing A short-term credit crunch in China is squeezing funding access to domestic small-to-medium companies. While big shots keep finding banks’ doors open, small players need to rethink their strategies or seek alternatives. Page 16 25,871.89 +201.84 (+0.79%)
Worst Performers
BOC Hong Kong Holdings
+6.35%
AAC Technologies Holdings
+1.61%
Belle International Holdings
-2.26%
New World Development
Geely Automobile Holdings
+4.58%
China Overseas Land &
+1.54%
Henderson Land Develop-
-2.16%
CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd
-0.15%
China Resources Land Ltd
+3.20%
Ping An Insurance Group Co
+1.53%
China Shenhua Energy Co
-2.12%
Power Assets Holdings Ltd
-0.14%
China Shenhua Energy Co
+2.13%
Tencent Holdings Ltd
+1.36%
Bank of East Asia Ltd/The
-2.02%
Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd
Galaxy Entertainment Group
+2.01%
Bank of China Ltd
+1.05%
Hong Kong & China Gas Co
-1.97%
Bank of Communications
28° 31° 27° 31° 27° 30° 27° 30° 27° 30°
-0.20%
-0.09%
Today
Source: Bloomberg
Best Performers
WED
THU
I SSN 2226-8294
+0.73%
FRI
SAT
Source: AccuWeather
First world goals, third world problems
2 Business Daily Tuesday, June 27 2017
Macau Infrastructure
Only lacking the bridge The Macau SAR Government has chosen a contractor to oversee and manage the project and the budget of the construction of the fourth bridge between Macau and Taipa. But it has not yet announced who is building it Sheyla Zandonai sheyla.zandonai@macaubusiness.com
T
he local government has granted a contract worth roughly MOP189 million to a Hong Kong company to oversee and manage the project and the budget for the construction of the fourth bridge between Macau and Taipa, according to an announcement in the Official Gazette yesterday. Last week, Business Daily advanced that the feasibility study project for the bridge was being evaluated by the central government, according to information provided to this newspaper by the Office for the Development of Infrastructure (GDI). The contract was granted to Ove Arup & Partners Limited, a design and engineering solutions company operating in Hong Kong since 1976. The company will provide the service for the next five years, from 2017 to 2021, with the first payment installment being the lowest, at MOP11 million. The other four installments range from MOP29.8 million to a maximum of MOP53.35 million. Speaking to Business Daily, an engineer with experience in infrastructure projects said that it is “not very usual that a contract for the oversight and management of a construction is granted before the contract for the actual construction is awarded, but it is not impossible.” As explained by the engineer, the reason for waiting for the construction contract to be granted is due to a need to know criteria such as the time necessary for the construction, the type of work required, and the conditions under which it will be developed. According to the source, the fact that it was Ove Arup which struck
the deal could also indicate that the bridge “is probably going to be one of certain wingspan, because Ove Arup is not usually involved with ordinary projects.” Within its portfolio, the engineering solutions company has the Sydney Opera House, the Centre Pompidou in Paris, and the Beijing’s Water Cube, designed for the 2008 Olympic Games. The company was also hired by the Macau SAR Government to elaborate the road infrastructure project on the Macau side for the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge (HZMB) in 2014, worth MOP13.7 million, as well as a study for the extension of the LRT (light rail transit) line to Hengqin, also in 2014, in a consortium with China Railway Siyuan Limited, worth nearly MOP90 million.
Oversight capacity
“Ove Arup has been more commonly involved in construction than oversight projects,” the engineer noted. Albert Chuck Chung Yin, also an engineer and Chairman of Big Four
Development Group Ltd., also told Business Daily that Ove Arup is “usually recognized for their design work.” But he mentioned that the Hong Kong company has carried out oversight work for the Venetian Macao and for another large resort in the city. “They have also conducted oversight in several construction sites in Hong Kong,” he stated. As for the construction of the bridge proper, Mr. Chuck believes that the contract will “most likely” be assigned to a mainland Chinese company, or a company from Hong Kong. “They would have the capacity to do so, even though they can always hire a local contractor for the work,” he explained.
Consideration
As for the total consideration of the contract awarded to Ove Arup by the MSAR Government, of MOP188.37 million, the engineer who spoke to us on condition of anonymity said that evaluating whether or not the price is fair depends on the specifications of the project, which have yet to be disclosed. “It depends on the number of technical personnel that will be involved, and it might be a big team, if the lab tests would be included or not in the costs, what is the scale of the project, the geological work necessary,” the
engineer explained. Other criteria involved would be the hiring of technical staff. The engineer explained that the average pay for engineers in this type of project in Macau is around MOP50,000-MOP60,000 monthly. “If they come from Hong Kong, however, it may be much more expensive than that,” he highlighted.
The Fourth Bridge
In previous replies to Business Daily’s enquiries, the GDI said that “a public tender will be launched after the conclusion of the works and proceedings” referred at this stage to the central government. The office had not yet replied to our enquiries about whether the central government had given the green light for the construction of the bridge by the time this story went to print. In September 2016, the Macau SAR Government announced that the contract for the initial design of the fourth Macau-Taipa connection project had been granted to CCCC Highway Consultants Co., Ltd., a mainland China-based infrastructure design company. The project involves a 3.5 kilometre-long bridge linking the eastern side of the new artificial island for the HZMB - reclaimed on the outer shore of the Macau peninsula (Zone A) - to the land reclaimed near the Macau International Airport in Taipa (Zone E1), with a total cross-sea section of 2.87 kilometres, according to information from the GDI.
The fourth bridge will be the newest link between the two islands, first established by the Ponte Nobre Carvalho
Confident local investors
Investment by Macau residents in securities issued by non-residents reached MOP484.7 billion at the end of 2016 At the end of last year, investment by Macau residents in securities issued by non-residents – excluding MSAR’s foreign exchange reserves – amounted to MOP484.7 billion (US$60.34 billion), an increase of 10.5 per cent year-on-year, according to the Co-ordinated Portfolio Investment Survey 2016, published yesterday by the Monetary Authority of Macau (AMCM).
This represented an average of MOP752,000 for every local resident, with long-term debt securities representing the largest portion of the external investment portfolio, at 59 per cent of the external portfolio investment, seeing a 15.6 year-onyear increase from 2015 to MOP285.9 billion. Meanwhile equity securities at the end of 2016 reached MOP183.9
million, going up 8.2 per cent yearly, while short-term debt securities saw a considerable 30.4 per cent yearon-year drop reaching MOP14.9 billion. Asia continued to constitute the largest share of Macau residents’ external portfolio investment, comprising 56.6 per cent, followed by the North Atlantic and the Caribbean with 15 per cent, Europe with 12.3 per
cent, and North America and Oceania with 10.4 per cent and 5.1 per cent, respectively. Investment in the North Atlantic and Caribbean region grew by 36 per cent yearly to MOP72.6 billion, with the market value of portfolio investment in the Cayman Islands known for offshore activity - seeing a year-on-year 21.1 per cent hike, to MOP32.8 billion. N.M.
Infrastructure
Changes unspecified on Macau LRT site PAL Asia Consult Ltd. has been awarded a contract worth MOP27.28 million by the Macau SAR Government to conduct a change to a Barra segment of the Light Rail Transit (LRT), according to a dispatch published yesterday in the Official Gazette. The company’s Civil and E&M Design division was previously awarded the contract for the construction of the LRT Macau-Taipa connection in 2011 for a total consideration of US$75
million (MOP602.44 million), according to the company. A company engineer contacted by Business Daily requested that enquiries be directed to the Office for Infrastructure Development (GDI), who was not able to provide any comment by the time this article went to print. No details were published in the dispatch in the Official Gazette as to what changes will be made to the segment, while the amount to be paid by the Macau Government
is slated to be distributed over seven years, from 2017 to 2021.
PAL Asia Consult was founded in 1978. Its main client is the Macau SAR Government. The company has developed projects such as the Jet
Foil Ferry Maritime Passengers Terminal in Macau and in Taipa, the Macau International Airport, and the Lotus Flower Bridge in Cotai.
Macao Water
In another dispatch, published in the Official Gazette yesterday, the government announced that it has granted a MOP4.17 million contract to Macao Water Supply Company Ltd (Macao Water) to execute the works for the creation of a system of water supply to the storage park and workshops of the Light Rail Transit (LRT). S.Z
Business Daily Tuesday, June 27 2017 3
Macau
4 Business Daily Tuesday, June 27 2017
Macau
Politics
We can all be special together Attempting for a third time to obtain a seat on the Legislative Assembly after running in 2009 and 2013, the former reporter and now Assistant Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences University of Macau (UM), Agnes Lam Iok Fong is hoping this year’s elections will see her express her views on the plenary. A communications and social sciences researcher and academic, Lam says the MSAR, as an equally crowded small territory with great wealth and lack of resources, could take some lessons from Singapore, implementing a balanced public housing policy and an open-minded employment policy for non-resident workers. Nelson Moura nelson.moura@macaubusinessdaily.com
W
hat aspects of Macau society concern you as an aspiring legislator? One of the key issues in the past years has been housing, which is strange because normally when an economy improves, people tend to be more concerned about universal suffrage or more middle class topics. However in Macau, the economy goes up and people worry about housing, transportation, medication - issues I think are more related to an under-developed status. We need to realise that the wealth and the money that we have, have cost us a lot of trouble. There must be a systematic error or something structurally wrong if having more money doesn’t help fix the problems. The housing issue is also a huge problem that is related to the lack of public housing for residents and the rent levels. Last time I ran for legislator [in 2013] I think we were the only electoral list that proposed that we should look at rent control, with a lot of people opposing this idea, due to the free market policy. However if you
look at Europe, they kind of control their rents and they also have a free market. We need to have a serious debate on how to maintain people’s living quality, while we’re selling some of our space at the same time to casinos or any other industry that can generate more gross domestic product (GDP). We haven’t looked at it before and that’s why we don’t have sufficient living resources.
What is your view on how the government has used the city’s financial reserves?
I think they use it as an uneducated parent spoiling their kids. As parents that don’t know a better way because they don’t research or talk to other parents to understand the better way, so they just give the kids money and an iPad. That’s what I feel. Macau residents get spoiled with things like the free cash hand-out, but no one is happy with government policies, aside from maybe the elderly population. However, young people don’t see the opportunities to have a steady salary apart from working for the government or in casinos or hotels. When I graduated from university, people were already saying there
were no other ways to make a living, apart from being a public or casino employee, but I still chose to be a reporter. I knew I would earn less than the other options, but I was happy. I believed I could have a future and buy an apartment and a car. Now, 20 years later, it’s harder for people to not choose that career path, with a lot of people feeling unhappy or that they have had to sacrifice themselves. Our economy is better, the starting salary is higher, but the residents’ perception of their future is worse.
You previously did academic research on public housing. What is your view on the issue: should the government continue allocating more reclaimed land plots for public housing projects?
I think we need a stable number of public housing, not more. There needs to be a true housing plan. It should be very easy to calculate how many couples are going to marry, what kind of income bracket they are included in, people looking to buy a first house, all the basic info. The housing policy should just be focused on providing shelter for people, be it economic or social housing. Then you’ll need some kind of
control, since if we only have economic housing it will mean the government will own all that land, while hurting the private real estate market. I think Singapore is a good model. From their thinking, they believe 80 per cent of their residents will be living in public housing, so they allow its development to a 10 or 16 per cent yearly increase, a decent, not too high, growth. At the same time they have a real free market for people looking to purchase luxury housing.
Do you think local residents should be favoured in the housing policies?
Maybe not directly. In Singapore the government doesn’t reserve any land just for Singaporeans; if you can afford it you can buy housing. They also don’t provide too much. Before the handover there was too much public housing in Macau, so the prices went down.
“Young people don’t see the opportunities to have a steady salary apart from working for the government or in casinos or hotels” What is your view of the gaming sector? Should it be more or less controlled?
I think it needs to be more controlled in some way. I think the central
Business Daily Tuesday, June 27 2017 5
Macau government slowly made sure that the sector wouldn’t hurt mainland China in terms of money laundering. I think it was in 2009 that I first heard of the central government showing the figures of how much money was being smuggled to the MSAR, something like US$30 million. We need to keep controlling it or else we’ll lose this card. We just need to make sure it doesn’t hurt mainland China, so we don’t lose that business. Part of the problem we’re facing is because we let the gaming sector grow too fast and too large without control, taking all our human resources and then the best pieces of land. That used up our potential to build something else.
“Part of the problem we’re facing is because we let the gaming sector grow too fast and too large without control, taking all our human resources and then the best pieces of land” Large or small companies and business people all complain about the lack of human resources. How do you believe this issue could be improved?
Current policies are very inconsistent. We say we’re an international city with world-class industries, while at the same time we’re very conservative. The government wasn’t prepared for this [development] and we need to be a bit more open-minded for people to hire non-residents. At the risk of always bringing up Singapore, they’re also a small region, but they never spoil or tell their
residents saying they’re special or the best and that they deserve everything. We’re told we should get any job we want, so even hyper-easy jobs will go to local residents. It’s a disgusting slogan. We shouldn’t aim for the government to create several easy jobs. We should focus on bringing the people with the ideas on how to make Macau the World Centre of Tourism and Leisure, and then work together. The government never explains its policy or the importance of immigrants, how they contribute to Macau. We don’t know how much domestic workers contribute to society, the economy or the families. If you see that just with locals our economy can’t sustain itself, then you need to make the groundwork to educate residents. On the United States Independence Day, migrant workers can obtain their citizenship and declare their loyalty to that country. That’s the attitude that allowed it to become a successful migrant country. [However] the election of Donald Trump kind of reversed their ideology, as localism and protectionism have appeared to become a more common worldwide attitude. If there’s protectionism, people should be explained its consequences. If mainland China had the same policy we would have no place to stand. I think a lot of issues related to migrant workers or expats need to be re-discussed, with the government having to educate the public on what amount of non-residents it allows to be hired. The government lacks credibility right now, so if the government said they would become more open-minded to hiring people, residents would think they’re bringing their own people not the best talents.
what these policies are, that OBOR can have a focus on Brazil, Portugal or other Portuguese-speaking countries, and understand what we can do there. We don’t have a lot of specific projects because I think not a lot of local people in management know about those countries. We need some basic research of what they need in the next 10 to 20 years, what they’re planning to do, and how locals can help them. I think a lot of the focus now is on construction projects from mainland Chinese state-owned companies, but they might need supplementary services after construction. I think the MSAR Government is just showing it because the Chinese central government is pushing it. There’s not a lot of government policies we can make a contribution to, but for OBOR we can use that Portuguese language legacy, the connections we have, while exploring the large Southeast Asian population and community here to reach out to that region.
The government has repeated several times the One Belt, One Road Policy (OBOR) as a mantra for Macau development. How do you think Macau can have a role in this initiative?
As a former journalist, how do you see the evolution of freedom of the press in the MSAR? Has it become more strict or controlled?
First we need people to understand
“The government never explains its policy or the importance of immigrants […] we don’t know how much domestic workers contribute to society, the economy or the families”
If you’re talking about the law, legislation doesn’t show more restrictions than before, but on the other hand, local society has become more dependent on the government and gaming operators. Before the handover, some companies like CEM – Companhia de Electricidade de Macau, Companhia de Telecomunicaçōes de Macau (CTM) and certain banks were really important, and they were kind of public, but not controversial. They were monopolies, but at the same time they wouldn’t mind so much what the media said. In terms of the execution of the law, there’s no people getting caught or shot but, because of the changes of the political environment, some issues become too sensitive easily without necessity. Maybe nowadays there is a bit more self-censorship or people are more cautious about what they say.
You were also involved in local protests parallel to the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989. Do you think Macau is closer to universal suffrage now?
I think Macau is stuck in a bipolar state. We have more people, especially in the middle class, who are psychologically prepared for direct democracy. But at the same time, the umbrella movement in Hong Kong affected people’s confidence in seeing democracy. People in Macau tend not to fight, thinking that if we need a fight, we’ll fight for something, but [only] if it’s a real war. There was a huge backlash after the movement and I noticed that when I was preparing the political platform and discussing with people the political terms, people that were so forward before, now are a bit hesitant about how we’re going to do it. People are avoiding being an advocate for democracy so as to not contradict mainland China.
Opinion
Albano Martins* Our beautiful prices We are witnessing a downward trend in (official) inflation in Macau, measured by the average change in the last twelve months of the CPI (consumer price index). We had 2.37 per cent inflation in December 2016, 2.2 in January, 1.91 in February, 1.69 in March, 1.51 in April and 1.37 last May. In one of my articles, I pointed to May registering “inflation in an interval between 1.35 and 1.38 percentage points”. On 23 May, the DSEC confirmed that inflation in Macau in May was exactly 1.37 percentage points, and as such was within my forecast, once again! Let’s make a similar exercise for June 2017. How much will inflation be this month? As in the past, we will try to be as accurate as possible using two decimal points. Inflation in June is expected to be between 1.27 and 1.29 per cent. Once again down! A big drop when compared to the value of 1.37 in May! It will be difficult to advance a number for the end of the year, because this pink variation of our inflation until May bothers me a lot, and in some cases leaves me perplexed! How can the rents continue to go down in a scenario of very high growth of the housing prices? Last month, I suggested in this column that inflation in Macau, at the end of the year, could be between 0.9 and 1.73 percentage points, a very large interval of 0.83 points, but I also stated that it would decline as we moved towards December. Now we can tighten this interval a little bit more. Inflation could fall between 1.24 and 1.67 percentage points in December 2017. Please remember when looking to the lower figures of 2017 that inflation in Macau reached a peak of 6.06 percent in November 2014! It seems, therefore, as a conclusion, that it will be below the forecasts of the UMAC and the Economist Intelligence Unit, that pointed to inflation for 2017 of 2.1 and 2.0 per cent, respectively. Our inflation in 2017 is likely to reach its lowest point in July, and in August we will enter an upward phase. Of course, that is if nothing unusual happens. With real estate prices growing 48.26 per cent year-onyear in May, who believes that housing rents, that occupy 19.37 per cent of the basket of goods and services, of a family, have declined 1.86 per cent over the same period? Not even a small growth? I am sorry, I cannot understand! * an economist and contributor to this newspaper
6 Business Daily Tuesday, June 27 2017
Macau Forecast
Slow transition to mass 2016-2020 compound average growth rate: VIP - 4 pct, mass - 11 pct, overnight visitation - 10 pct and non-gaming - 11 pct, say analysts Kelsey Wilhelm kelsey.wilhelm@macaubusinessdaily.com
W
hile VIP will never lose its impact on the gross gaming revenues of the MSAR, analysts believe that mass is the future, with the shift set to take place ‘over the coming years’ and driven by ‘incremental capacity expansion’ encompassing hotels, casinos, retail and entertainment, as well as the increased infrastructure offerings and transportation ‘in and around Macau, with increasing visitation and greater penetration of China’. This is according to analysts at Bernstein in a report entitled ‘Macau Gaming: The Ascent of the Masses’. Although noting that the shift is taking place, the group’s long-term forecast for the VIP
market is of ‘modest growth’ with a compound average growth rate (CAGR) of ‘more or less 4 per cent’, between 2016 and 2020 ‘especially facing headwinds from regulatory changes in Macau and continued scrutiny in China’. The junkets’ contribution to gaming revenues could be boosted by the ‘continued softening of the anti-corruption campaign’ in China, but ‘there is no guarantee that the campaign will continue to soften, but could even intensify again.’ However, immediate risks to the VIP contribution for this and next year from the China-side include ‘China government crackdowns on underground banking (dealing in forex transfers), scrutiny over invoicing of imports/exports, and limitations on corporate outbound transfers, and other
constraints or scrutiny over outbound money flows’. This, coupled with ‘any major changes to the way UnionPay is used in Macau,’ would affect the ‘Macau gross gaming revenue at the higher-end Premium Mass segment and to some VIP businesses’. In addition, given that ‘ATM and pawnshop utilization remain important avenues of funding gaming budgets’ - with analysts noting that ‘46 per cent of respondents used ATM withdrawals to fund a portion of their gaming budgets and nearly 20 per cent of respondents used pawnshops as a funding source’ - any
‘significant limitations on the pawnshop system in Macau would have a negative impact on gross gaming revenue, especially at mid-tier and higher-end Premium Mass and VIP’. The smoking ban and the continued tightening of anti-money laundering measures will also ‘create headwinds on the VIP’ the analysts note.
Growing mass
Mass gross gaming revenue is expected to have a CAGR of ‘more or less 11 per cent’ for the 2016-2020 period ‘driven by increasing overnight visitation and increasing average visitor spend’. CAGR for hotel rooms is expected to hit 6 per cent during the same period, ‘which can support an overnight visitation CAGR of 10 per
cent, with hotel occupancy increasing to more or less 90 per cent,’ note the analysts, pointing out that a reason for the occupancy drop ‘was the reduction in the number of hotel rooms being taken by junkets’. Improving the penetration of the Chinese market is needed to increase the ‘slightly above 3 per cent’ level of unique visitor penetration of the ‘addressable market in China’ notes the group, while pointing out that ‘Hengqin is a long-term driver in Macau’s growth’ and expecting the Lotus Bridge will ‘carry a much larger proportion of Chinese visitor arrivals in the future’. New capacity in hotel rooms and non-gaming offerings will help ‘to bring visitation to the area’. ‘Critical’ in this happening, is for operators to increase non-gaming offerings ‘as a draw to have customers visit, stay, spend money, and, most importantly, partake in gaming in the casinos’. The group predicts that non-gaming revenue will grow at a CAGR of ‘over 11 per cent’ in the 2016-2020 period ‘and represent over 10 per cent of the revenue contribution by 2020’.
Revenue
June revenue up 16 to 32 pct y-o-y: analysts Opinions on the uptick in gross gaming revenue for the month of June remain widely divided, ranging from
between 16 per cent and 32 per cent year-on-year, according to analysts from Bernstein and Wells Fargo. advertisement
Contributing to the estimates were the strong visitation results seen in May – 2.6 million visitors, a 4.4 per cent year-on-year uptick, with overnight visitors up 14 per cent and same-day down 6 per cent, year-on-year. For Wells Fargo, implied daily averages of MOP615 million to MOP645 million are behind their 16 to 22 per cent prediction for June, year-onyear, however the analysts point out that the current recovery ‘could stall once the stimulus from loose credit and the Chinese housing bubble wears off – as it did in 2013/2014’. Berstein analysts predict MOP20.9 billion to MOP21 billion in revenues for June, with a ‘slightly high’ monthto-date VIP hold rate at 3 per cent. Average daily revenues were up 2 per cent month-on-month and 38 per cent year-on-year, the group points out. Threats to this month’s revenue figures revolve around the visit
of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Hong Kong for the neighbouring SAR’s 20th handover anniversary, with Bernstein noting that ‘traffic control around the region may impact Macau’s gross gaming revenue negatively’. For Wells Fargo analysts, the smoking ban remains a ‘potential headwind’, coupled with the housing bubble in China as a negative, contrasted by the overnight visitor growth ‘given it signals that room supply is being absorbed and overnight guests tend to stay and play longer’. K.W.
Signing
Cyprus casino deal signed, Melco seeks Hard Rock shares Construction on the 500 million euro integrated resort in Cyprus by a consortium between local gaming operator Melco and Hard Rock can now begin, following the signing of the contract by the consortium and the government yesterday. Melco noted that it is ‘confident that its solid track record and unique
experience in creating the most spectacular integrated resorts in Asia can meaningfully contribute to the economy and tourism of Cyprus’ in a press release. The consortium’s bid for the 30-year gaming licence, plus the rights to a monopoly in the country for the first 15 years, was granted late last year, with Melco’s Chairman and CEO Lawrence Ho telling Macau Business that it was “a fantastic opportunity to have a monopoly somewhere within the EU”. However, the business mogul noted that “it is an untested market,” especially given a lower passion for gambling in Europe as compared to Asia, and that “hopefully it will turn out to be quite exciting […] and it might be a longer-term opportunity”. Melco has also entered into an agreement to assume a majority stake in the project, at 71 per cent, by purchasing Hard Rock's shares. K.W.
Business Daily Tuesday, June 27 2017 7
Gaming Sentence
Crown staff guilty of China gambling crimes to walk in weeks The verdict comes eight months after the arrests roiled the Melbourne-based company
M
ore than a dozen employees at Crown Resorts Ltd., billionaire James Packer’s gaming company that’s at the centre of a probe in China, were convicted of illegally promoting gambling in the most high-profile crackdown on overseas casino operators courting customers on the mainland. Among the 19 current and former Crown employees who pleaded guilty to organizing gambling was Jason O’Connor, Crown’s head of international high-roller operations, who was handed a sentence of 10 months in jail. Two other Australians received nine months from Shanghai’s Baoshan district court. They could have faced a maximum of three years under Chinese law. The sentencing takes into account the time they have served in detention since October, which means some of them could be released within weeks. The verdict comes eight months after the arrests roiled the Melbourne-based company and highlighted the fine line foreign casinos walk in courting customers from mainland China, where it’s illegal to gamble or promote gaming. The case comes at a time when the government wants to curtail hundreds of billions of dollars worth of outflow, some of which exit the Mainland via betting operations. “Crown remains respectful of the sovereign jurisdiction of the People’s Republic of China and does not intend to comment further at this time,” the company said in an exchange statement Monday. Sixteen of the 19 staff held since late October were fined a total of RMB8.62 million (US$1.3 million), which Crown said it would pay. Since
the crackdown, the company has sold out of its Macau venture and closed most of its offices across Asia. Crown’s VIP revenue plummeted 45 per cent in the six months ended Dec. 31 in the wake of the detentions.
‘Rap over knuckles’
Crown shares gained 0.3 per cent to A$12.79 in Sydney yesterday. That trimmed the stock’s loss since the detentions to about 1.2 per cent. “It’s a rap over the knuckles,’’ said Vivienne Bath, a professor at University of Sydney specializing in Chinese law. “To get away with nine or 10 months is not bad. They’re not handing out long sentences but their position is still clear.’’ Five individuals, including O’Connor and Malaysian Alfread Gomez, received 10-month terms, while three received no jail term and the remaining were sentenced to nine months, Ma Lang, an attorney for one of the defendants said yesterday.
‘Sixteen of the 19 staff held since late October were fined a total of RMB8.62 million’ Family and lawyers streamed out of the courthouse after the verdict and were escorted by security. They did not answer questions from the media, which were not allowed into the court room. Harry Liu, a Shanghai-based lawyer at King & Wood Mallesons who’s representing some Crown staff, didn’t
respond to a request for comment through his firm. In an unrelated South Korean case, employees of casino operators Paradise Co. and Grand Korea Leisure Co. were arrested in June 2015 for promoting gambling on the Mainland. The companies have said
their employees were released last year after serving jail terms. Seven Grand Korea Leisure employees each served about 17 months in jail, which included their detention during the investigation period. Six employees of Paradise were jailed for about a year. Bloomberg News
Column
Japan’s casinos will do just fine without high rollers Is Japan’s US$40 billion casino in- will want to pay attention to earnings, dustry about to be strangled in its too. On that front, the advantages of VIP gambling are much less apparent, cradle? That’s one way of looking at proposed because high rollers are notoriously regulations that would effectively ban low-margin customers. junket operators from the gambling A table dedicated to a VIP gambler resorts the country is due to start can see tens of millions of dollars opening early next decade. Activities staked over the course of a night. such as exchanging money for chips That’s attractive to casino owners and lending money for wagers will both in terms of productivity per have to be handled in-house rath- square meter of property, and cash er than farmed out to third parties, liquidity for the casino as a whole. VIP gamblers aren’t Isabel Reynolds and stupid, though. They Takashi Hirokawa of overwhelmingly play Bloomberg News wrote baccarat, where the Wednesday. probabilities are onS u ch a c rac k d o w n ly slightly more in the would certainly deal a house’s favor than a coin mortal blow if impleper cent of bets Las Vegas Sands’ Macau toss. Moreover, they mented in Macau. The VIP table winnings have the pick of Asia’s territory’s big six resorts gambling resorts to find rely on junket operators whichever table will ofto recruit mainland high rollers to its gaming tables, and get fer them the best chance of beating around rules that prevent Chinese their odds. They expect private-jet residents from taking more than flights, breathtaking penthouse US$50,000 a year out of the country. suites, and Michelin-class meals, Even in recent years when Beijing and the junket operators will want has tried to rein in the activities of their cut of the profits, too. high rollers, VIP gambling, where At Las Vegas Sands Corp.’s Macau junkets predominate, has made up casinos, winnings from VIP tables between 50 per cent and 60 per cent came to just 3.2 per cent of bets last fiscal year, versus 22 per cent of the of Macau’s casino revenue. That’s just revenue, though -- and any wagers on mass-market tables. VIP business with an eye to investment bets amounted to two-thirds of the
3.2
cash staked at the resorts, but just 29 per cent of the money that came in as revenue through house wins. That’s even before you consider some of the risks involved in getting enmeshed in the junkets trade. One issue, highlighted by the panel drafting Japan’s new regulations, is crime. “The junket system brings the risk of money laundering, organized crime and illegal high-interest loans,” Masayuki Watanabe, a lawyer with Miyake & Partners in Tokyo and a member of the panel, said in a report. Even chasing Chinese VIPs directly carries risks. Staff of Crown Resorts Ltd. are due to appear in a Shanghai court this week on charges related to promoting gambling, a crime on the mainland. The Australian company has shuttered most of its Asian offices and sold out of a 27 per cent interest in Macau’s Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd. since the employees were arrested last October. A much better model for Japan’s casinos can be found in Singapore, which bans junkets at its two casino resorts. That conservatism doesn’t appear to have done the city-state’s casino investors any harm: Operating return on assets at Marina Bay Sands has been markedly better in recent years than at Las Vegas Sands’ Macau properties. Return on invested capital
David Fickling a Bloomberg Gadfly columnist
at the other resort operator, Genting Singapore Plc, has only modestly underperformed Melco, the Macau company rated most highly by analysts. For all its gilded image, junket-based VIP gambling in some ways resembles a high-volume, low-margin business like discount retailing more than it does a luxury industry. Japan, with its vibrant pachinko-parlor gambling culture and wealth of tourist attractions, will find that its casinos get by just fine without it. Bloomberg Gadfly
8 Business Daily Tuesday, June 27 2017
Greater China Wealth
Mainland journey up per capita GDP ranking has no end in sight Over the next five years, China’s per-person economic growth will see it bypassing the likes of Mexico and oil-rich Azerbaijan Andre Tartar and Wei Lu
C
hina’s transformation from rags to riches isn’t over quite yet. Thanks to economic reforms put in place by Deng Xiaoping from the seventies that set off rapid industrialization and urbanization, the China miracle is set to continue with its per capita GDP seen rising to 64th out of 166 countries by 2022, up from being the 133rd-poorest in 1992 — on par with Haiti and with over half its population living on less than US$2 a day.
live six years longer on average and have full access to electricity, less than 2 per cent of the population live under the global poverty line and the average calorie deficit has been cut by more than half, according to World Bank data going back to 1992. Over the next five years, China’s per-person economic growth will see it bypassing the likes of Mexico and oil-rich Azerbaijan, putting it just shy of Argentina. The country’s on-going shift from
a manufacturing-based economy to a services-driven one will likely play a part in this, as may the recent end to China’s one-child policy. At the same time, additional progress could come at the cost of a widening income gap as well as increased environmental strains around the country’s pollution-plagued cities. Like China, fellow G-20 members India, South Korea and Indonesia are expected to achieve double-digit improvements in their per capita GDP rankings between 1992 and 2022. The United States will remain unchanged in tenth place globally, while 10 members will see their relative standings deteriorate. China also stands out among its
emerging market BRICS peers, modestly closing the gap with Russia’s mid-forties rank position and passing South Africa and Brazil in 2014 and 2016, respectively. Despite all this progress, China still hasn’t closed a yawning income gap between itself and the world’s wealthiest economies, currently around US$26,000 with Japan and nearly US$43,000 with the U.S. Five years from now, this sizeable divide will remain. Current-price purchasing power parity, used in this analysis, allows for a comparison of relative living standards by normalizing for pricing and currency differences across countries. Bloomberg News
‘Per capita GDP seen rising to 64th out of 166 countries by 2022’ The current US$16,676 per capita GDP level is already higher than Brazil’s when adjusted for purchasing power, according to a Bloomberg analysis of International Monetary Fund data. Importantly, this rise has translated into tangible benefits. The Chinese
Bonds
Mainland secretive regulators cast a cloud over Asian dollar debt A number of bond sales are being delayed as companies wait for NDRC approval Carrie Hong and Narae Kim
China’s regulatory moves can appear secretive and scattershot to outside observers. When it comes to the country’s current deleveraging drive, that’s presenting challenges for parts of the booming Asian dollar-bond market. Chinese regulators have tightened restrictions on offshore corporate debt as they try to rein in record leverage built up after the global financial crisis. The sometimes opaque way the curbs are being implemented is making it difficult for cash-strapped firms to plan and undertake bond sales. Given needs to roll over maturing debt, the uncertainty could even boost the risk of defaults, according to S&P Global Ratings. “It could cause some of these issuers to go into distress,” if restrictions prove to be prolonged and alternative funding channels aren’t available, said Christopher Lee, managing director of corporate ratings at S&P in Hong Kong. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) sowed confusion among real estate developers and local government financing vehicles after moves in April to start withholding approval for new foreign debt issuance by those issuers, according to bankers familiar with the matter. The two groups of issuers are the ones most associated with China’s debt woes. While some debt sales are still going ahead, the basis for approval continues to be unclear to many market participants. An official in the foreign media office of the NDRC, China’s chief economic
planning agency, said it wasn’t able to comment when contacted on Friday. The NDRC -- which has said little publicly about any deleveraging initiative -- appears to be getting stricter about issuers following the rules with regard to their borrowing intentions. Some companies were identified this month for failing to register foreign debt sales. That could be negative for high-yield issuance, Citigroup Inc. said at the time.
Sales delayed
Given how integral Chinese players are on both the buying and selling sides of the Asian debt market, this uptick in regulatory vigilance has wider implications, said Ken Hu, chief investment officer for Asia-Pacific fixed income at Invesco Hong Kong Ltd. “The offshore market has become an extension of China’s local market,” he said. “Investors may need to
pay attention to the risk of abruptly changing supply-demand market dynamics.” A number of bond sales -- among them deals that have already been mandated -- are being delayed as companies wait for NDRC approval, according to eight bankers who didn’t want to be identified because they aren’t allowed to speak publicly and the details of the deals are private. The restrictions -- which have also seen the NDRC’s Shenzhen branch limit offshore issuance to investment-grade firms -- have forced some companies to get creative. After authorities stymied companies seeking approval to issue longer-term notes, developers including Greenland Holdings Corp., Modern Land China Co., and Fantasia Holdings Group sold offshore notes maturing in less than a year. Yet this route also could be blocked, leaving companies scrambling for fresh funding when the securities come due, says Jini Lee, a partner in Hong Kong at law firm Ashurst LLP. International ratings agencies often don’t rate short-term debt, so these
notes are usually only attractive to private banks and private-wealth buyers, while buy-and-hold institutional investors steer clear, she said.
Different strokes
Another company, property developer China Jinmao Holdings Group Ltd., used the issuance quota of its parent, the oil firm Sinochem Group, to raise debt offshore, according to one banker and two investors with knowledge of the deal who asked not to be identified. Jinmao didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. If there are curbs on sales from developers, though, they’re not being uniformly enforced. Shenzhen-based real estate firm Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. and Guangzhou’s China Evergrande Group sold dollar debt this month. In fact, Evergrande, China’s most indebted property developer, last week pulled off the biggest ever high-yield dollar bond sale in Asia excluding Japan. And while many companies are still waiting for word from the NDRC on whether they can proceed with bond sales, the agency on Friday announced that a batch of firms had successfully registered for offshore debt issuance, including some developers. For some investors, at least, concerns about Beijing’s approach are enough to give them pause, at a time when the country is trying gradually to boost foreign participation in its markets. “The arbitrary rule changes by China’s regulators are convincing the buy side to skew away from Chinese supply,” said Sean Chang, head of Asian debt at Baring Asset Management Ltd. in Hong Kong. South Korean, Indian or Southeast Asian names could “fill the void” left by China, he said. Bloomberg News
Business Daily Tuesday, June 27 2017 9
Greater China Markets
Blue-chips at 18-month high, MSCI talks up A-shares Shanghai Securities News reported MSCI Inc Chief Executive Henry Fernandez saying MSCI could raise the future weighting of China ‘A’ shares in its Emerging Markets Index China’s blue-chip index closed at its highest in over a year yesterday, boosted by news of index provider MSCI saying it could substantially raise the future weighting of China ‘A’ shares in its emerging markets benchmark. The Shanghai SE 50 Index, an index tracking the 50 most representative blue-chips on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, advanced 0.6 per cent to an 18-month high. The index has gained 11.2 per cent in 2017, versus a gain of 2.6 per cent in the benchmark SSEC. The blue-chip CSI300 index rose 1.3 per cent, to 3,668.09 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index ticked up 0.9 per cent to 3,185.44 points. Shanghai Securities News reported MSCI Inc Chief Executive Henry Fernandez saying MSCI could raise the future weighting of China ‘A’ shares in its Emerging Markets
Index, potentially adding 195 midsized stocks. MSCI’s decision to add 222 China-listed large-cap stocks to its Emerging Markets Index (EMI), tracked by around US$1.6 trillion,
has already fuelled a blue-chip buying spree on the mainland. “For now we are optimistic about the ‘A’ share market, which has been picking up recently, aided by better policy and liquidity conditions,” Haitong Securities wrote in a report. Listed companies in the ‘A’ share market are also expected to record rapid profit growth in the second quarter and for the full year, the brokerage added. Sectors rallied across the board.
The top performing real estate sector jumped 4.6 per cent to a near seven-month high, led by bellwether China Vanke which soared 10 per cent for the second straight session.
‘Listed companies in the ‘A’ share market are also expected to record rapid profit growth in the second quarter and for the full year’ The market showed scant reaction to news that China imposed a penalty of nearly RMB700 million (US$102.30 million) on a Russian-controlled high-frequency trading firm on Friday for futures market manipulation. Reuters
Cybersecurity
Joint pledge with Canada against cyberattacks on private sector In 2015 China and the United States came to a similar understanding on corporate cyber-espionage China and Canada have signed an agreement vowing not to conduct state-sponsored cyberattacks against each other aimed at stealing trade secrets or other confidential business information. The agreement was reached during talks between Canada’s national security and intelligence adviser, Daniel Jean, and senior communist party official Wang Yongqing, a statement dated June 22 on the Canadian government’s website showed. “This is something that three or four years ago (Beijing) would not even have entertained in the conversation,” an unnamed Canadian government official told the Globe and Mail, which first reported the agreement. The new agreement only covers economic cyber-espionage, which includes hacking corporate secrets and proprietary technology, but does not deal with state-sponsored cyber spying for intelligence gathering. “The two sides agreed that neither country’s government would conduct or knowingly support cyber-enabled theft of intellectual
property, including trade secrets or other confidential business information, with the intent of providing competitive advantages to companies or commercial sectors,” the Canadian Government said in the statement. China’s foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Some countries, including the United States, have long accused Beijing of sponsoring hacking attacks on companies in an effort to acquire sensitive foreign technology. China denies those accusations, and says that it is also a victim of hacking.
“The two sides agreed that neither country’s government would conduct or knowingly support cyberenabled theft of intellectual property” Canadian Government statement In 2015 China and the United States came to a similar understanding on corporate cyber-espionage, after the Obama administration had mulled targeted sanctions against Chinese individuals and companies for cyber
attacks against U.S. commercial targets. U.S. cyber security executives and government advisors said breaches attributed to China-based groups had dropped around the time of that agreement.
China this month put into effect a new cyber security law designed to strengthen critical infrastructure, even as many global tech firms and lobbies said the rules skewed the playing field against foreign firms. Reuters advertisement
10 Business Daily Tuesday, June 27 2017
Greater China
Charles Li, chief executive officer of Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing HKEx
Hong Kong’s Mr. Market wants a piece of all your trades The trading links, which started with the Shanghai Connect in 2014 and expanded to Shenzhen in December, have helped keep HKEX relevant as China develops markets of its own Benjamin Robertson
A
fter three years of helping China open its stock market to the world, Charles Li wants to start bringing the world to Chinese investors. The chief executive officer of Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. is laying the groundwork for new trading platforms that he says will give the planet’s biggest population unprecedented access to overseas assets. The initiatives, which build on HKEX’s existing cross-border trading links, will allow Chinese investors to buy international exchange-traded funds and participate in stock offerings by global businesses in Hong Kong. While the city is currently home to just a handful of companies from outside Asia, Li says the prospect of tapping China’s vast army of savers could attract Hong Kong listings from the likes of Apple Inc. and Walt Disney Co. It’s all part of the 56-year-old former banker’s plan to turn HKEX into the primary conduit for capital-market flows to and from China. His ultimate goal: a trading hub in Hong Kong big enough to rival those of New York and London.
HKEX will become a “global deployment centre’’ for Chinese wealth, said Li, who detailed his long-term outlook in an interview with Bloomberg 20 years after Hong Kong’s handover to China. It’s an ambitious vision, one that could easily unravel if Chinese financial centres like Shanghai and Shenzhen open further to foreigners. But Hong Kong has thrived for years by staying one step ahead of China’s reforms, and Li is confident the city can expand its longstanding role as a gateway to the Middle Kingdom. “Charles has certainly taken the bull by the horns and is far more focused on making Hong Kong a more international exchange,” said Fraser Howie, who has two decades of experience in China’s financial markets and co-authored the 2010 book “Red Capitalism.” The trading links, which started with the Shanghai Connect in 2014 and expanded to Shenzhen in December, have helped keep HKEX relevant as China develops markets of its own. The platforms were cited as key reasons for the inclusion of domestic Chinese equities in MSCI Inc.’s benchmark indexes last week, and HKEX is expected to open a similar link for Chinese bonds this year. The platforms currently exclude
newly-listed shares, ETFs, derivatives and commodities. But Li hopes to eventually add all four, pending approval from Chinese and Hong Kong regulators. He’s particularly excited about the link for new-share sales. Because of China’s capital controls, international businesses have found it difficult to tap the country’s US$23 trillion of household wealth for equity financing. Li’s proposal, called Primary Connect, would allow companies like Apple to raise money from Chinese investors in Hong Kong by way of a secondary listing on HKEX -- a new twist on the dual-listing model used for years in the city by British firms including HSBC Holdings Plc and Standard Chartered Plc. “We will create an Asian timezone focused liquidity pool that ultimately is going to rival Europe and the U.S.,’’ Li said. The big risk for the former British colony is that China closes the gap between the two jurisdictions’ legal and financial systems. That could happen through an acceleration of reforms on the mainland, or via increased meddling by Beijing in Hong Kong’s affairs. Concerns over the latter flared up this year after a prominent businessman was allegedly taken by Chinese agents from a Hong Kong hotel. For now, China’s leaders appear happy to let Hong Kong serve as the country’s financial middleman. The closed-loop design of the exchange links, which means Chinese money invested in Hong Kong must return
home once traders sell, is particularly appealing to authorities who worry about capital outflows, according to William Barkshire, former co-president of Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange Ltd., a venue for commodity futures that shut in 2013.
“Charles has certainly taken the bull by the horns and is far more focused on making Hong Kong a more international exchange” Fraser Howie, “Red Capitalism” co-author The way Li sees it, Hong Kong stands to benefit whether or not China’s reforms continue. If the country opens its markets directly to foreigners, it would diminish Hong Kong’s role, but also trigger a flood of cross-border capital flows, Li said. In other words, it would leave the city with a smaller slice of a much bigger pie. “It’s a nice problem to have,” he said. “Either way, we’re going to be fine.” Reuters
Business Daily Tuesday, June 27 2017 11
Asia Monetary policy
Bank of Japan focusing on communication skills Growing signs of life in Japan’s economy have presented the BOJ with a fresh communications challenge Leika Kihara
B
ank of Japan (BOJ) policymakers focused on how best to communicate their intentions as improvements in the economy heighten market attention to the timing of an exit from ultra-easy monetary policy, a summary of opinions from the June rate review showed. While board members stressed the need to discourage markets from speculating that a withdrawal of stimulus was near, they also showed little appetite for additional easing despite subdued inflation. With inflation distant from the BOJ’s 2 per cent target and likely to take time accelerating, the best approach would be to maintain the current ultra-loose policy, the board members were quoted as saying in the summary released yesterday. “The price stability target cannot be achieved easily within a short time-frame. It is crucial to maintain
accommodative financial conditions and keep the economy expanding as long as possible,” one board member was quoted as saying. “It’s necessary to continue with the current easy policy persistently and wait for a steady increase in demand and further falls in the
unemployment rate to lead to higher wages, prices and inflation expectations,” another member said. Such comments align with a dominant market view that the BOJ will maintain a neutral policy stance, neither raising nor lowering interest rates for the time being, hoping that improvements in the economy will gradually push up inflation. The BOJ kept monetary policy steady at the June meeting, and upgraded its assessment of private consumption for the first time in six
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. Lusa
months, signalling its confidence in an export-driven economic recovery that is gaining momentum. Growing signs of life in Japan’s economy have presented the BOJ with a fresh communications challenge, pushing it to be clearer with markets on how it might dial back its stimulus - even though such a step remains a long way off. One board member said improvements in the economy, as well as the BOJ’s expanding balance sheet, were partly behind growing market attention to when and how the BOJ may withdraw stimulus. “As the economy continues to improve, the BOJ needs to be accountable for its thinking on monetary policy to avoid raising concern among market participants,” the board member was quoted as saying. “The fundamental problem ... is that the timing of an exit cannot be foreseen as achievement of the price target is still considerably distant,” another board member said. After three years of heavy asset buying failed to drive up inflation, the BOJ revamped its policy framework last year to one better suited for a long-term battle to beat deflation. Despite growing signs of strength in the economy, inflation remains subdued as companies remain wary of raising prices for fear of scaring away cost-conscious consumers. Data due on Friday will likely show core consumer inflation hit 0.4 per cent in May from a year earlier, a Reuters poll found. Reuters
Study
Great Barrier Reef a US$42 billion asset ‘too big to fail’ Canberra has been criticised for backing a huge US$16 billion coal project by Indian mining giant Adani near the reef Martin Parry
Australia’s under-pressure Great Barrier Reef is an asset worth A$56 billion (US$42 billion) and as an ecosystem and economic driver is “too big to fail”, a study said yesterday. The World Heritage-listed reef is the largest living structure on Earth and its economic and social value was calculated for the first time in the Deloitte Access Economics report commissioned by the Great Barrier Reef Foundation. Using economic modelling, it said the reef -- bigger than Britain, Switzerland and the Netherlands combined -- was worth A$29 billion to tourism, supporting 64,000 jobs. The “indirect or non-use” value -- people that have not yet visited the reef but know it exists -- was estimated at A$24 billion, with recreational users such as boaters making up the rest. The study, based on six months’ analysis, comes as the reef suffers an unprecedented second straight year of coral bleaching due to warming sea temperatures linked to climate change. It is also under pressure from farming run-off, development and the crown-of-thorns starfish, with the problems compounded this year by a powerful cyclone pummelling the area.
Great Barrier Reef Foundation director Steve Sargent said the study showed that no single Australian asset contributed as much to international perceptions of “Brand Australia”. “At A$56 billion, the reef is valued at more than 12 Sydney Opera Houses,” he said. “This report sends a clear message that the Great Barrier Reef -– as an ecosystem, as an economic driver, as a global treasure -– is too big to fail.” Commenting in the report, U.S. presidential candidate turned conservationist Al Gore said the study was a “much needed, holistic view of the incredible economic value and opportunities provided by the Great Barrier Reef”. “Any failure to protect this indispensable natural resource would have profound impacts not only to Australia but around the world,” he added.
‘Priceless and irreplaceable’
The study included a survey of 1,500 Australian and international respondents from 10 countries that found people value the reef for a range of reasons -– due to its importance for tourism but also the belief that Australia would not be the same without it. Lead author, Deloitte Access’s John O’Mahony, said it was clear the reef was “priceless and irreplaceable”.
But we’ve been able to look at it as an ‘asset’ that has incredible value on multiple fronts -- from its biodiversity and job creating potential to its support for critical industries and standing among international visitors to Australia,” he said. Australia last month hosted a summit of more than 70 of the world’s leading marine experts to work on a blueprint on how best to respond to the threats facing the reef. Options explored included developing coral nurseries, strategies to boost culling of crown-of-thorns starfish, expanding monitoring systems and identifying priority sites for coral restoration. Key to the talks was the need to slash greenhouse gas emissions to
prevent warming sea temperatures. Canberra in 2015 narrowly avoided UNESCO putting the reef on its endangered list, and has committed more than A$2.0 billion to protect it over the next decade. But it has been criticised for backing a huge US$16 billion coal project by Indian mining giant Adani near the reef, which environmentalists warn would harm the natural wonder. Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg insisted protecting the reef was a priority. “It is critical for reefs worldwide, including the Great Barrier Reef, that international efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are effective,” he said in response to the study. AFP
12 Business Daily Tuesday, June 27 2017
Asia In Brief C.bank
S.Korea economy to see mild improvement this year South Korea’s economy is expected to see gradual improvement this year thanks to manufacturing and services, the country’s central bank said in a regular report on regional growth yesterday. The overall pace of economic growth had improved slightly in most regions of the country during the April-June period, according to an assessment from the Bank of Korea’s 15 regional offices nationwide. Manufacturing is forecast to steadily improve in coming months due to higher shipments of semiconductors, display and petrochemical products, while services will gain from an increase in inbound tourists and freight, the report said. Japan’s trade min
Takata bankruptcy filing was unavoidable Japanese Trade Minister Hiroshige Seko said yesterday that Takata Corp’s filing for bankruptcy was unavoidable given the severity of its product recalls. Seko, speaking to reporters, said he asked ministry officials to devise a scheme to provide 100 per cent loan guarantees to small businesses that may be affected by Takata’s bankruptcy. Seko also said he wanted to closely monitor liquidity and funding conditions for small companies that dealt with Takata. Results
Metcash to resume dividend payments, shares surge Australia’s Metcash Ltd said yesterday it would resume dividend payments after reporting a 9.3 per cent rise in underlying annual profit, sending shares in the grocery and hardware firm up sharply. The improvement in underlying earnings was helped by income generated from its Home Timber & Hardware business, purchased last year, along with a strong performance from its liquor arm. “Significant progress has been made on the integration of Home Timber & Hardware, and we remain excited about the opportunities this acquisition presents,” Chief Executive Ian Morrice said in a statement. Markets
S.Korean stocks finish at all-time high South Korean shares closed at a life-time high yesterday, largely boosted by gains in major tech shares like Samusung Electronics and SK Hynix. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) ended up 0.4 per cent at 2,388.66 points, its highest closing level. Offshore investors were small net sellers of KOSPI shares for the day while individuals purchased a net 21.4 billion won (US$18.84 million) worth. The South Korean won edged up for its third day of gains as the dollar lost momentum due to weaker-than-expected U.S. economic indicators.
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Salaries
Aussies face consumer crunch of spiralling debt and sickly wages Household debt to GDP ratio has climbed almost 15 percentage points in four years Michael Heath
A
ustralians may soon be struggling to make ends meet. With real wages going backward in the first quarter and the developed world’s highest debt-to-GDP ratio after Switzerland, consumers are setting aside less cash for a rainy day: their savings levels have more than halved in five years. Further intensifying the squeeze is a rising cost of living, with electricity prices climbing as much as 20 per cent in New South Wales state next month. At stake is the economy’s trajectory: consumption accounts for more than half of gross domestic product, and any long-term weakness in spending will weigh on growth. As to ballooning debt, while the central bank can’t say how high is sustainable, it warns that the deeply indebted can be more sensitive to declines in income “and may respond by reducing consumption sharply.” “We’re starting to see signs the consumer is looking to see where they can take cheaper options,” said Daniel Blake, an interest-rate strategist at Morgan Stanley in Sydney, who also notes a rare drop in private-health insurance participation as households scale back. “There’s likely to be another meaningful slowdown in consumption.” Australia’s household debt to GDP ratio has climbed almost 15 percentage points in four years, to 123.1 per cent in 2016, data from Bank for International Settlements (BIS) show. Known as the central bankers’ bank, its annual report released Sunday said household debt outpacing GDP growth over prolonged periods is a “robust early warning” signal of financial stress. According to BIS, while rising household debt boosts short-term consumption, an increase of just 1 percentage point in the debt-to-GDP ratio “is associated with growth that is 0.1 percentage point lower in the long run.” At the heart of Australia’s problem: record-low interest rates. These
have allowed home buyers to borrow vast sums in order to break into the Sydney and Melbourne property markets, where prices have about doubled since 2009.
No buffer
Policy makers are now worrying about some borrowers’ resilience. The Reserve Bank of Australia noted in April that about a third of mortgage holders had either no buffer or not enough of one to cover a month’s worth of repayments. The most vulnerable tended to hold newer loans or come from “lower-income and lower-wealth households.” Moreover, it said almost a quarter of borrowers were on “interest only” mortgages.
‘Consumption accounts for more than half of gross domestic product’ That’s prompted the bank regulator, supported by the RBA, to enforce measures to rein in riskier mortgages and strengthen lending standards. Australians have historically been able to load up on debt and then inflate it away through wage gains and rising consumer prices. But this time it’s different: their huge debt just remains huge. Stagnant wages, meanwhile, are a problem confronted by a number of developed economies including Germany, the UK, Japan and the U.S., which are already at or near full employment, further compounding the dilemma. Down Under, it’s assumed that workers who have lost highly-paid jobs in mining and associated industries have moved to less well-paid positions. Jobs in health care, accommodation and food, professional services and transport accounted for most of the strong employment gains in the three months through May -- industries that generally pay
below-average wages. Meanwhile, the economy shed better paying jobs: the industries with the highest average weekly earnings are mining, utilities and finance, according to Citigroup Inc. Those sectors all cut positions in the three months through May.
Unfair share
But there’s also a distribution issue: the share of GDP going into workers’ pockets has slumped to a record low. Australia Institute research shows total compensation that includes wages, salaries, and pension contributions fell to 46.2 per cent of GDP in the first quarter, below the previous record low of 46.4 per cent in 1959. These factors last week prompted RBA Governor Philip Lowe to take an unprecedented step -- for a central bank chief -- urging Aussie workers to ask for bigger pay increases. Still, consumption in Australia is running close to its decade average -- unlike wage growth -- and motor vehicle sales reached an all-time monthly high in May. But it’s a mismatch that looks unsustainable in the longer term. Part of the RBA’s thinking behind slashing rates was to stimulate residential construction, providing a soft landing for workers leaving mining jobs amid the end of an investment boom. But the jobs outlook in construction is weakening as home building peaks, says Morgan Stanley’s Blake. The last thing the RBA wants is to take the cash rate below the current 1.5 per cent and stoke a new round of borrowing and house-price growth. It would prefer the government to undertake wide-ranging infrastructure stimulus -- with the added benefit of another soft landing for workers leaving the residential building sector. “If it starts to become clear that a crunch on incomes and a tighter credit environment is leading to a collapse of confidence in job security and consumers are really retrenching on their spending, then that’s when the RBA would have to consider cutting rates,” Blake said. “But if this is just a grind out, and the economy just disappoints against their forecasts, then they’re likely to choose to wait it out.” Bloomberg News
Founder & Publisher Paulo A. Azevedo, pazevedo@macaubusinessdaily.com Editorial Council Paulo A. Azevedo; José I. Duarte; Mandy Kuok Newsdesk Mike Armstrong; Óscar Guijarro; Nelson Moura; Kelsey Wilhelm; Matthew Potger; Cecilia U; Sheyla Zandonai Group Senior Analyst José I. Duarte Design Aivi N. Remulla Photography Cheong Kam Ka, Ruka Borges, Gonçalo Lobo Pinheiro, António Mil-Homens, Carmo Correia Contributors Albano Martins; James Chu; João Francisco Pinto; José Carlos Matias; Larry So; Pedro Cortés; Ricardo Siu; Rose N. Lai; Zen Udani Assistant to the Publisher Lu Yang, lu.yang@projectasiacorp.com Office Manager Elsa Vong, elsav@macaubusinessdaily.com Agencies Bloomberg, Reuters, AFP, Xinhua, Lusa, Project Syndicate Printed in Macau by Welfare Ltd. Address Block C, Floor 9, Flat H, Edf. Ind. Nam Fong, Av. Dr. Francisco Vieira Machado, No. 679, Macau Tel. (853) 2833 1258 / 2870 5909 Fax (853) 2833 1487 E-mail newsdesk@macaubusinessdaily.com Advertising advertising@macaubusinessdaily.com Subscriptions sub@macaubusinessdaily.com Online www.macaubusinessdaily.com
Business Daily Tuesday, June 27 2017 13
Asia Financial sector
Japan regional banks face further delays in merger plans 100-plus regional banks have struggled, particularly in rural areas, as the country’s dwindling population has led to weaker loan demand Takahiko Wada and Sumio Ito
A proposed merger between two banks in southern Japan will likely be delayed for a second time over monopoly concerns, sources said, highlighting the difficulty regional banks face in trying to consolidate to survive the shrinking market.
Key Points
poorer service and branch closures in remote areas. To overcome the objections, Shinwa Bank and Eighteenth Bank had been preparing to sell loans to other banks, but three officials familiar with the matter said reaching the target would be difficult. One official said the banks were not expected to sell enough loans to satisfy the FTC. Japan’s 100-plus regional banks
have struggled, particularly in rural areas, as the country’s dwindling population has led to weaker loan demand. Wafer thin lending margins under the Bank of Japan’s negative rates policy has also squeezed profitability. To survive, some have tried to merge with neighbouring rivals, but so far the sector has remained largely unchanged even as big city banks have contracted from 21 to three “megabanks” over the past 20 years. As of May, regional banks held about 235 trillion yen (US$2.12 trillion), or 53 per cent, of Japan’s outstanding bank loans of 447 trillion yen. Fukuoka Financial Group’s president said earlier this month that he
still hoped to complete the merger by October. A spokesman said the bank would have to decide in July whether to delay the transaction. “We are making our best efforts to complete the merger of our operations with Fukuoka Financial by October,” said a spokesman at Eighteenth Bank, who asked not to be identified. But another official familiar with the dealings said it would be “very difficult” to complete the merger by October. Elsewhere, two smaller banks in Niigata prefecture Sea of Japan coast, Daishi Bank Ltd and Hokuetsu Bank Ltd , agreed to merge and are awaiting authorities’ approval. Reuters
Big city banks have already consolidated They now number three compared with 21 previously Japan’s 100-plus regional banks lag behind They are under pressure from shrinking market, weak margins Last year, the largest banking group on the island of Kyushu, Fukuoka Financial Group Inc, said it wanted to buy local rival Eighteenth Bank. It intended to merge it with Shinwa Bank, which it already controlled. But Japan’s Fair Trade Commission objected because the merged entity would control an unprecedented level of about 70 per cent of loans in Nagasaki prefecture. The FTC argued the merger would undermine competition and lead to higher interest rates,
Aviation
Thai Airways aims to buy almost 30 planes to modernize fleet These purchases would add to the hundreds of aircraft worth billions of dollars ordered by Asian airlines Supunnabul Suwannakij
Thai Airways International Pcl said it plans to modernize its fleet by replacing almost 30 older aircraft over the next five years, adding to the climbing demand for planes in Asia. The state-run airline is seeking new generation aircraft offering greater comfort and fuel efficiency, and is talking with both Airbus SE and Boeing Co., Chairman Areepong Bhoocha-Oom said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Haslinda
Amin. “The portfolio of our airline will have new aircraft almost 100 per cent,” Areepong said. It’s the right step for Thai Airways partly because fuel costs could be volatile in future even though they are low currently, he said. Thai Airways’ purchases would add to the hundreds of aircraft worth billions of dollars ordered by Asian airlines, such as AirAsia Bhd. and IndiGo in India, amid a surge in the number of people traveling by air in advertisement
the region. Boeing forecasts a US$6.05 trillion jetliner market in the next two decades globally. The Bangkok-based carrier is trying to turn around performance after posting losses in three of the past four years. Thai Airways presently has a 100-strong fleet and will seek Cabinet approval for the plane replacement plan by the end of July, Areepong said in the interview Thursday on the side-lines of a conference in Bangkok. Airbus’s A380 superjumbos will remain a significant part of the company’s fleet, while older Boeing 747s will be replaced in the years ahead, he added. An overhaul of marketing and reservation contributed to record passenger cabin factor of about 85 per cent in the first quarter and the full-year target is 80 per cent, Areepong said. The airline’s goal is to exceed last year’s net income, Areepong said. Thai Airways swung to a profit of 15.1 million baht (US$445,000) in 2016. It lost money in each of the three prior years. The airline needs new airplanes to modernize its fleet and boost competitiveness, said Raenoo Bhandasukdi, an analyst at KT
Zmico Securities Co. in Bangkok. Thai Airways is expected to bolster profits this year, which would be a good outcome given that some other full-service carriers have struggled against competition from low-cost rivals, Raenoo said.
‘The Bangkokbased carrier is trying to turn around performance after posting losses in three of the past four years’ The carrier signed an agreement with Airbus in March to explore joint development of a maintenance, repair and overhaul facility at U-Tapao International Airport near the tourist destination of Pattaya. The project could involve about US$1 billion investment and the plans may be finalized in 2018, Areepong said at the conference in Bangkok on Thursday. Bloomberg News
14 Business Daily Tuesday, June 27 2017
International In Brief Forecast
Ifo economist upbeat on German consumption German private consumption remains a crucial driver of growth in Europe’s biggest economy, Ifo economist Klaus Wohlrabe said yesterday, adding he also sees further room for export growth. “The German economy is soaring at a high altitude,” Wohlrabe told Reuters. “Private consumption is and remains one of the most important pillars of the German economy,” he said, adding the industrial sector was also robust. He expects second quarter growth of 0.7 per cent in Germany and said the economic situation in the euro zone looks brighter. Hopes for a ‘soft’ Brexit were so far having no impact on sentiment. Judge
EU court seen ruling on Intel antitrust case next year Europe’s top court is likely to rule on Intel’s appeal against a record 1.06 billion euro (US$1.19 billion) EU antitrust fine next year, an EU judge said yesterday, a case that may affect companies such as Google and Qualcomm in the EU’s crosshairs. The European Commission hit Intel with the record penalty seven years ago, accusing it of trying to stifle rival Advanced Micro Devices by giving rebates to PC makers Dell, HewlettPackard Co, NEC and Lenovo for buying most of their computer chips from Intel. The U.S. chipmaker subsequently challenged the decision at the Luxembourg-based General Court.
Financial sector
Job cuts, branch closures loom for Italy’s troubled banks Under the rescue package, the government is paying five billion euros to cover the costs of integrating the two banks, restructuring them and laying off employees
U
p to 3,900 voluntary redundancies and 600 branch closures are on the cards as the Italian government winds up two insolvent Venetian banks to avert a possible threat to the country’s banking system, it was announced yesterday. The Italian government is stepping in to liquidate the two banks, Veneto Banca and Banca Popolare di Vicenza, at a total cost of up to 17 billion euros (US$19 billion). As part of the deal, the two failing lenders’ healthy assets are being sold to Intesa Sanpaolo, one of Italy’s biggest banks, for a symbolic price of one euro.
At the same time, their “bad” or “non-performing” loans are being transferred into a so-called “bad bank.” The healthy assets being taken over by Intesa represent a workforce of 9,960 in Italy and a further 880 abroad, as well as a total 960 branches. As part of the intervention, across the new Intesa group as a whole some 600 branches will be closed and 3,900 people offered voluntary redundancy, the bank said. The deal “makes it possible to avoid the serious social consequences that would have otherwise derived from compulsory administrative liquidation proceedings for the two banks,”
Fed’s Williams
Slowdown in U.S. inflation due to one-off factors A recent slowdown in U.S. inflation was mainly due to one-off factors and should not prevent further increases in interest rates, a top U.S. central banker said yesterday. Speaking to reporters before a speech in Sydney, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said three rate rises this year and three to four next year would be fine as long as the economy progressed as hoped, though much would depend on how the data unfolded. Williams said his own estimate of neutral policy -- a rate that was neither a stimulus nor a drag on growth -was a little below 3 per cent. M&A
Russian billionaire buys Holland & Barrett Russian billionaire Mikhail Fridman has bought British health food retailer Holland & Barrett for £1.8 billion (US$2.3 billion), his investment fund said yesterday. L1 Retail, which is a division of Fridman’s holding company LetterOne, said it has purchased Holland & Barrett from parent company Nature’s Bounty -- which is owned by U.S. private equity firm Carlyle. “Holland & Barrett is a clear market leader in the UK health and wellness retail market, with attractive growth positions in other European and international markets,” said LetterOne managing partner Stephan DuCharme in a statement.
Italian Prime Minister, Paolo Gentiloni, attends a press conference after the Council of Ministers in Rome. A measure, on the crisis of the Venetian banks, to creates the regulatory framework for the administrative liquidation of Veneto Banca and Popolare Vicenza was approved at the meeting. Lusa
Intesa said. The rescue “will safeguard the jobs at the banks involved, the savings of around two million households, the activities of around 200,000 businesses financially supported and, therefore, the jobs of three million people in the areas which record the country’s highest economic growth rate,” it said. In a separate statement, Italy’s central bank, Banca d’Italia, said that the two Venetian banks’ branches would open for business as usual yesterday.
‘The healthy assets being taken over by Intesa represent a workforce of 9,960 in Italy and a further 880 abroad, as well as a total 960 branches’ “Clients are not affected by this move. All banking operations will proceed as normal, but under the responsibility of Intesa Sanpaolo,” it said. Intesa said it would “allocate 60 million euros in total as restitution to small savers who hold subordinated bonds issued by the two banks.” Intesa Sanpaolo insisted that the acquisition of the two banks would be “fully neutral” to its core “Tier 1” capital ratio and dividend policy. Under the rescue package, the government is paying five billion euros to Intesa to cover the costs of integrating the two banks, restructuring them and laying off employees. The Italian government will also provide state guarantees worth up to 12 billion euros to cover potential losses at the “bad” bank. Reuters
Securities
Some banks risk research loss as MiFID gives low-cost players a leg-up A report forecasts that some research departments of big banks could face losses of up to US$240 million Some global investment banks risk losing up to US$240 million in business by 2020 as a regulatory overhaul, which will change the way securities research is priced and used, makes independent firms more attractive for clients, a financial consultancy said. Unlike the big banks, the smaller securities research firms do not offer trading or corporate finance. They rely entirely on what they charge for research, as will be required under the European Union’s Markets in Financial Instruments Directive, or MiFID II, due to take effect in January 2018. Independent research firms are steadily growing, reflecting their capacity to produce analyses at a considerably lower cost than major sell-side brokerages, Hong Kongbased Quinlan & Associates said in a report released yesterday. “The most important priority for brokers now is to start making decisions around the structural make-up of their investment research offering,” said Benjamin Quinlan, chief executive of the consultancy. The gradual shift to independent researchers and the high costs
associated with sustaining research divisions is piling up the pressure on large global investment banks, the report said. The Quinlan report forecast that some research departments of big banks could face losses of up to US$240 million post-MiFID II under their current structures. The potential loss does not take into account additional costs tied to a bank’s MiFID II compliance obligations, the report added. Under MiFID II, investment banks must charge fund managers an explicit fee for research rather than bundling the cost into trading commissions charged to clients, as at present. To mitigate the impact, banks can choose to transition from the current “fully-integrated” model to operating research out of a separate unit such as a joint venture or outsourcing research to independent research providers, the report said. The immediate impact of the regulation will be in Europe - a recent Greenwich Study predicts a cut of US$100 million by European money managers in research budgets over
the next 12 months - but Asia and the United States will be affected too. Global investment banks such as Standard Chartered, CLSA, Jefferies and Barclays among others, have already retrenched staff or pulled back from equity research and sales businesses in some markets.
“The most important priority for brokers now is to start making decisions around the structural make-up of their investment research offering” Benjamin Quinlan, chief executive of the consultancy Quinlan & Associates “Given the negative outlook for integrated brokerages, we feel current structures are generally unsustainable, and believe brokers will need to make a brave call around their future business models post-2018,” the Quinlan report said. Bloomberg News
Business Daily Tuesday, June 27 2017 15
Opinion
Stop fooling yourself about 8 per cent easy returns Lisa Abramowicz a Bloomberg Gadfly columnist
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here’s an amazing amount of denial going on right now. Investors are simply ignoring current market dynamics and are still expecting average annual returns of 8.6 per cent, according to a Legg Mason Inc. survey of income investors released this week. Those who were employed expected more than 9 per cent gains, with retirees expecting less. Actual returns have come in markedly lower of late, but hopes remain high. This is wishful thinking at best and dangerous at worst. Today’s stock and bond markets are profoundly different from those in decades past. Bond yields are near all-time lows. Stocks aren’t paying that much relative to history in terms of earnings yield. Yes, prices could continue to rise, but that’s becoming less certain as central bankers seek to tighten monetary policies and valuations get increasingly squeezed. This new dynamic is no secret to anyone who manages money professionally. It’s alarming that the hundreds of investors surveyed by Legg Mason still have such unrealistic expectations. Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Wealth Management, said he had seen similarly o v e r- o p t i m i s t i c expectations from n o n p r o f essi o n a l i n v e s t o r s h e’ s spoken with. “People want to look on a historical basis as to what they should expect in the future,” he said Friday on Bloomberg Radio. Many tell McKnight they need 8 per cent returns a year; he’ll tell them about 7 per cent is more possible over the next five to 10 years and only with more aggressive allocations to equities and emerging markets. About 5 per cent is more likely. They’ll often stick with their outlooks anyway. Here’s the problem: The only way to meet these lofty returns goals is to take much bigger risks than in the past, and to do so at a time when many are already accepting relatively little compensation for bigger gambles. For example, the earnings yield on the S&P 500 is just 4.6 per cent, compared with nearly 6 per cent over the past decade historically, while junk-bond yields are 5.6 per cent compared with 8.3 per cent historically. So far, many analysts say the market isn’t prone to a collapse because of a lack of leverage in financial markets. It’s true that valuations are high. And many companies have been increasing their debt relative to income. But this isn’t generally the type of leverage that will automatically sink markets in a fast, broad-based manner. That said, if investors cling to these inflated visions of future returns, problems will ensue. Unless people save more money and ratchet back their expectations, they’ll likely end up seeking classic methods to juice gains -- namely, investing in funds that borrow short-term money to invest in longer-term assets. It’s important that investors are realistic. If they’re not, fund managers will try to serve their hopes and dreams, making the financial system all the more fragile for it.
‘Investors are simply ignoring current market dynamics and are still expecting average annual returns of 8.6 per cent’
Bloomberg Gadfly
A South Korean protester holds a placard during a rally in front of the U.S. Embassy during a rally against the U.S. military’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, in Seoul, South Korea, 24 June 2017. Lusa
Trump’s unravelling Korea Policy
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ith every tweet or meeting with a foreign leader that U.S. President Donald Trump completes, American officials find themselves struggling to reassure allies that the United States remains committed to their security. Nowhere is this truer than in Asia, where longstanding U.S. strategic engagement, backed up by the world’s most advanced military, has maintained the balance of power for decades. Trump’s signature Asia policy – his pledge to stop North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons – should be a clear-cut example of American military resolve. Unfortunately for the region, it has proved to be anything but that. In early June, Defense Secretary James Mattis tried his best to convince Asian counterparts gathered in Singapore that U.S. support was unwavering. The presence of two U.S. aircraft carriers off the Korean Peninsula – the first time in 20 years that U.S. naval manoeuvres included two carrier groups – was meant as a “message of reassurance” against any aggression by North Korea. But neither Mattis’s speech, nor the muscle flexing at sea, did much to bolster U.S. credibility in South Korea, or to restrain the North’s nuclear ambitions. The problem wasn’t Mattis’s speechwriters, or the U.S. Navy’s “show the flag” naval exercise. It was Trump himself. From threatening military strikes on the North while all but inviting Kim Jong-un to a Mar-a-Lago tête-à-tête, to threatening to tear up trade and defence pacts with South Korea, Trump has thoroughly confused America’s Asian allies. The effects of his contradictory statements will come home to roost later this month, when South Korean President Moon Jae-in visits Washington, DC. Moon is crafting his own approach to dealing with Kim, while Trump’s behaviour could hardly be undermining U.S. influence more. Moon’s desire to take a different tack with the North should come as no surprise. A long-time advocate of a softer line, he acknowledges the North Korean threat, but believes that the South has time to seek a solution by reviving economic ties and dialogue. The strategy harks back to the South Korea’s decade-old “Sunshine Policy,” former president Roh Moo-hyun’s unsuccessful outreach to the North, which Moon supported. Today, Moon is entertaining a range of similar “soft” options – such as reducing military tensions, increasing people-to-people contacts, and offering more humanitarian aid – to help shift course gradually. More fundamentally, Moon believes that the U.S. has steered the alliance’s North Korea strategy off course. He wants South Korea to be in the driver’s seat, with his government as mediator between the U.S. and North Korea. Moon laid down his marker on June 7, when he announced a freeze on deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) U.S. anti-missile system in South Korea, because of his questions about allied decision-making. The freeze, which includes an “environmental review,” is a none-too-veiled signal to expect more assertiveness on national security and North Korea policy. Moon is well positioned to capitalize on Trump’s
“
Kent Harrington a former senior CIA analyst, served as National Intelligence Officer for East Asia, Chief of Station in Asia, and the CIA’s Director of Public Affairs
self-inflicted wounds – which have included threats of unilateral military action, protectionist mantras, and the abandonment of the TransPacific Partnership trade agreement. Moon, who was elected to boost jobs and curb corruption, campaigned on sweeping away his predecessor’s policies, including her hard-line approach toward North Korea. Even if sparks fly in Washington later this month, Moon is unlikely to pay a political price at home. South Koreans broadly support a strong relationship with the U.S. But they also follow American politics closely, and these days, many regard the dangers of erratic leadership as no longer being confined to Kim’s regime. Indeed, Trump’s statements about the U.S.South Korean relationship have ranged from the impolitic to the bizarre – such as accusing the South of unfair trade deals and then threatening to send South Korean leaders a bill for the THAAD system. He has also issued unnerving military pronouncements, like an April prediction of a possible “major, major conflict” on the peninsula. Those comments, made during an interview with Reuters, seemed to overlook the deployment of 700,000 North Korean soldiers just above the demilitarized zone, which would make any war with the North devastating to the South. Trump’s approach to the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula has produced equally troubling knock-on effects. China, South Korea’s leading trade partner, is a case in point. With South Korea’s economy struggling to sustain growth, China is leveraging its position by registering its opposition to THAAD. Calling the system a threat, the Chinese have been boycotting South Korean goods, stalling investment, and curbing what had been a booming tourist trade. How hard Moon presses Trump for a different approach to North Korea remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: Trump’s standing among South Koreans won’t be what keeps Moon mum. According to the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, a Seoul-based think tank, Koreans gave Trump exceptionally low approval ratings during his 2016 presidential campaign, and his popularity remains at rock-bottom levels. Even with China’s recent THAAD-related arm-twisting, Chinese President Xi Jinping rates more favourably among South Koreans than Trump. Moon will have many questions for Trump about U.S. leadership in Asia – questions that Mattis was unable to answer. Given the risks posed by an unpredictable U.S. president, South Koreans’ unease is easy to understand. Before Trump, 11 U.S. presidents helped maintain stability on the Korean Peninsula by building alliances, using diplomacy, calibrating their rhetoric, and deploying American military strength. Since the end of the Korean War, no president has even casually, much less flippantly, called the U.S. role on the peninsula into question. None, that is, until now. Project Syndicate
Trump has thoroughly confused America’s Asian allies
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16 Business Daily Tuesday, June 27 2017
Closing Lenders
New credit crunch hits China Inc as banks rein in short-term lending Syndicated offshore loan volumes to Chinese companies have also fallen in the first four months of this year Umesh Desai
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hina’s small-to-medium companies, already weighed down by massive debt, now also face a funding squeeze as regulators push banks to rein in riskier corporate loans - including the short-term credit on which many depend. While China’s large and statebacked entities maintain access to cash, smaller firms say they are finding it tougher to get loans from state-owned banks, forcing them to think twice about investments and, for some, seek costlier alternatives. In January 2016, short-term bank loans - usually up to one-year - to corporate customers made up China’s fastest growing lending segment to non-financial borrowers at 4.8 per cent year-on-year, data from Moody’s Investors Service and the People’s Bank of China showed. That segment is now registering the slowest growth in the same category of lending, at less than one per cent in March this year, the data showed. For managers like Davis Cai in China’s manufacturing heartland along the Pearl River, the squeeze not only means his masonry company Shenzhen Leeste Industry has to be careful managing its cash, but more and more of its customers are struggling, threatening a vicious cycle of non-payment. “We are afraid to do big projects because of this, we are only doing some small projects instead,” Cai, the firm’s export manager, told Reuters. “If there aren’t any changes, it will be really difficult for us.” The company, whose product line includes statues of angels, Catholic saints and Buddhas for high-end developments, counts the Trump International Hotel and Tower in Vancouver, Canada, and the Doha Metro in Qatar as past projects, as well as Harbin Pharmaceutical’s Renaissance-style offices in northern China. The company has had to resort to borrowing from private lenders,
often through middlemen introduced through friends and contacts, paying rates at least “twice or three times higher” than regular banks, he said. “The pressure is very great ... We need to borrow from these people,” he said. Stephen Chow, a sales manager at Guangzhou Provision Electronics Co. Ltd, which designs and manufactures electronic displays, said that while his company has been able to borrow, the bar at state-run banks has been raised in recent years. “It usually takes a longer timeframe to borrow money from state-owned banks, around 60 days to 90 days. They have to get approval from people with higher authority, so it takes a longer time,” Chow said. “We are being more careful with our investment.”
lenders and other parts of the capital markets. Meanwhile, investors are increasingly demanding greater yield for riskier debt assets. Bond yields for top-rated issuers are up about 75 per cent from their 2016 trough in October. The additional yield that investors demand on lower-rated borrowers has more than doubled since the end of last year to about 36 basis points late last week.
Key Points China’s crackdown on leverage continues Credit squeeze impacts investment decisions Some companies go to nontraditional lenders, markets
Old pain
Borrowing pain is not new to corporate China. Policymakers last year focused on “supply-side reform”, aiming to cut debt in sectors with excess capacity, such as iron and coal production, leading to a spate of bond defaults. But while tighter credit may help bolster corporate China’s overall creditworthiness and remove surplus capacity, it also drives financing activity elsewhere, to non-traditional
Gallup poll
Syndicated offshore loan volumes to Chinese companies have also fallen in the first four months of this year to less than a third of what they were in same period last year. Issuance of perpetual bonds, which do not have a maturity date, has soared this year. The increase has raised concerns that the true debt position of some corporations is being concealed because perpetual bonds
Systemic risks
are considered equity, not debt, for accounting purposes. For policymakers, tighter credit conditions are exactly what the doctor ordered. “In China it is the availability of credit rather than its cost that matters more ... at the end of the day, they have to pass it on (to customers),” said Sean Darby, strategist with Jefferies. At the same time, Darby said, “they allow a lot of companies to service their debt pretty much without pushing them into insolvency.” Analysts and even many business leaders agree regulators’ efforts to limit the availability of credit to riskier borrowers will improve China’s corporate health and remove questionable investment practices. “As long as you have collateral and good standing, I don’t think it is difficult to get corporate financing,” said Huang Yongpeng, president of the Dalang Federation of Industry and Commerce in the Pearl River Delta region of Dongguan. But for Foshan Junjing Industrial, a tile and ceramics manufacturer in Guangdong, the squeeze and softer economic conditions more generally mean a slower pace of expansion. “We are trying to focus on providing services instead of investment,” said Foshan’s sales department manager, Johnny Lee. Reuters
Markets
This is where intolerance is highest China to strengthen supervision Tradeweb to be main offshore trading on religion, culture, race of overseas investment platform for China “Bond Connect” At a time when media headlines point to a spike in global intolerance, here’s some good news: most people around the world don’t say they believe any single race, religion or culture is better than another. That was the finding of a multi-nation WIN/Gallup International poll conducted at the end of last year and published this week. The majority of people and more than half of the 66 countries surveyed say there’s no such thing as racial, religious or cultural superiority. But the issue divides many, and a handful, all of which are troubled nations with developing economies, says superiority does exits. According to the Gallup International survey, national majorities that agreed or strongly agreed that superiority exists were more likely to share that belief across the categories of religion, race and culture. The eight countries where that was most the case were Paraguay, Bangladesh, the Palestinian territories, Ghana, Lebanon, Nigeria, Indonesia and Macedonia. The countries where people most disagreed with the idea that there is superiority in the three categories included Sweden, France, Iceland, Latvia, Spain, Argentina, Canada and Portugal. Bloomberg News
China will strengthen supervision of overseas investment, and establish a system to protect overseas enterprises, the official Xinhua news agency said yesterday, citing a top-level meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping. The meeting also resulted in a call for an improvement in the quality of statistics, after several provincial governments were caught inflating their economic data, Xinhua said. Chinese regulators have been working to control potential systemic financial risks, including those posed by domestic companies acquiring global assets. Last week, sources told Reuters that China’s banking regulator had ordered a group of lenders to assess their exposure to offshore acquisitions by a handful of companies that have been on an overseas buying spree. Xinhua also said yesterday a report from Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli to the country’s political advisory body pledged to steadily push forward with destocking in the property market. China will also push ahead with a debt-to-equity swap programme, and gradually lower the corporate leverage ratio, Xinhua said. Reuters
Tradeweb, a fixed-income trading platform, will connect with China Foreign Exchange Trading System (CFETS) to be the main interface for offshore investors trading in China’s bond market through the country’s upcoming “Bond Connect” scheme, the company said yesterday. Talks between Tradeweb and the Hong Kong exchange were exclusively reported by Reuters last August. Tradeweb, majority-owned by Thomson Reuters, the parent company of Reuters News, matches buyers and sellers of fixed income products across more than 22 international OTC bond markets. In a statement, Tradeweb said that eligible overseas institutional investors from its network of more than 2,000 clients would be able to trade directly with liquidity providers in the CFETS market through Tradeweb’s platform. Investors trading through Tradeweb will be able to use global custodians to settle through a nominee holding arrangement provided by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s Central Moneymarkets Unit, the statement said. Regulators have not yet revealed a launch date for the scheme. Reuters