Boris Johnson

from Business Enquirer Edition 106 | Market Leaders | Airbus Headline

by Business Enquirer (Internal Use Only Not Downloadable)

Sonnedix

Could this be the end of the Conservatives’ reign?

Whichever way you’re politically persuaded it’s unlikely that UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s list of misdemeanours have gone unnoticed by you.

Results of June’s YouGov survey asking “How well is Boris Johnson doing as UK Prime Minister” showed 69% of voters answering “badly” and just 24% saying “well”. This is a stark but unsurprising comparison to the early days of the pandemic, where in May 2020 the result was practically opposite, with “well” at 66% and “badly” 26%. From Partygate to Wallpapergate, Johnson hasn’t only fallen out of public favour, but with a good percentage of his own party too.

A vote of no-confidence was triggered by Johnson’s own party this June, when 15% of party members submitted no-confidence letters to the chair of the 1922 Committee.

The result of the vote was tight, with 41% of the party voting to remove the leader (211 votes in support of the leader and 148 against).

In typical Johnson pseudo-positivity, he responded to the result by saying that it was an “extremely good, positive, conclusive, decisive result”.

Boris Johnson

However, for some context, Theresa May won her vote of no-confidence battle in December 2018 by a similarly close margin, with 63% in favour of the leader - she resigned just 6 months later.

Although the current ruling states Prime Minister Johnson would be exempt from another vote of no confidence this year, a lot could be hinged on June’s by-elections.

Upcoming by-elections in Wakefield and Honiton and Tiverton, could see current blue areas painted red.

Should Labour win in Wakefield, it will see the reformation of the “Red Wall”, which was dismantled after the 2019 election. Research by Survation predicts Labour winning 56% of the vote, and the Conservatives just 33%.

Meanwhile, in Honiton and Tiverton, a loss for the Tories could see a resurgence for the Liberal Democrats, who have also made gains in opinion polls.

Should the Conservatives lose these seats, it has been made clear by rebels within Johnson’s party that he will face another battle for his leadership. This will also be bolstered by potential findings by the Privilege Committee into Prime Minister Johnson’s parliamentary conduct over Partygate, due to be released in September 2022.

The UK’s next General Election is earmarked for May 2nd 2024, should Johnson not call for a snap election.

The latest YouGov poll (June 2022) shows voting intention swaying towards Labour, who hold 39% of the poll compared to Tory’s 33%. Current Labour leader, Keir Starmer, also comes out favourably by pollers, achieving 33% of the vote in YouGov’s “best Prime Minister” question compared with Boris Johnson at 29%.