THE YEAR THE GENERAL ELECTION WILL BE DECIDED

This article is written for Business Leader by former MP, businessman and author, Simon Danczuk.

It’s unlikely that the next General Election will be held in 2023 because Rishi Sunak wants time to turn the Conservative’s fortunes around – but it is the year in which it will be decided.

The last election was 12th December 2019 which means the Prime Minister can go as late as, but no later than, 24th January 2025. It’s highly unlikely that he’d leave it until then, not least because it gives him no room to manoeuvre should some major events occur.

If I were a betting man, and I’m not, I’d say he’ll have it pencilled in for May 2024. This gives him the flexibility to call it before or after that. If we enter 2024 and the economy and Conservative polling has improved, he can go to the country in say March. If the situation still hasn’t improved enough by May 2024, he can leave it until the autumn of that year.

All the opinion polling has Labour 20 points ahead but, I would argue, this is due to the Conservative government’s poor performance, rather than Kier Starmer’s top team doing well.

It’s hardly surprising that the public don’t currently have faith in the Conservatives after changing Prime Ministers, Chancellors, and numerous other ministers, several times in the last three years.

The economy is in a terrible state, we’ve got industrial action throughout the country, an energy crisis, and people are feeling the effects of both high inflation and interest rates.

Labour have started making policy announcements, and will use 2023 to continue, but it’s all incredibly cautious, even boring. Late last year they announced reform of the House of Lords, like anyone cares, then in his New Year speech, Starmer said they’d devolve more power to local authorities – is that really a good idea? They’ve recently announced some modest changes to Universal Credit and how to get people back into work, and they’re consulting on what to do with the NHS.

Starmer’s shadow cabinet has got some good performers in it, like Wes Streeting (Shadow Health Secretary) and Rachel Reeves (Shadow Chancellor), but there is also some dross. With a number of former Labour MPs looking to make a comeback at the next election some shadow ministers will be worried that they’ll be replaced by what is known as re-treads.

Douglas Alexander, the former Transport Secretary, is hoping to stand, and even Ed Balls and David Miliband have been rumoured to be interested.

What Starmer needs to do is offer a convincing vision for where he’ll take the country, just not being the Conservatives isn’t enough for him to win the election. He also needs to start winning in Scotland, still no easy feat.

Since becoming Prime Minister in October, Sunak has created some much-needed political and economic stability. Whilst Labour is continuing to suggest there is a psychodrama playing out in the Conservative Party, the truth is Sunak has calmed the situation and most of his MPs are giving him the time and space to get their election chances back on track. I don’t see a comeback for Boris Johnson this year, or next. promises: halving inflation, growing the economy, cutting debt and NHS waiting lists, and stopping migrant boats crossing the Channel. If he delivers on all these, the Conservatives will certainly be in a better place.

If Sunak gets inflation under control, helps reduce mortgage rates, and gets public services into better shape he could improve the Conservative’s chances. He has clearly chosen a fight with striking workers, presumably believing the public are going to back him rather than them. He wants voters to see Labour as being in the pocket of those striking unions.

One significant challenge Sunak has got is the Reform Party. Led by Richard Tice, businessman and former Member of the European Parliament, this party of the right are saying they’ll stand candidates in every parliamentary seat.

They’re currently polling around 10%, like the Liberal Democrats, and if that translates into votes at the election, whilst it wouldn’t mean they will get any parliamentarians elected, it could deprive Conservative MPs of their majorities.

As the year progresses, we will also see attacks on the Labour Party, and its candidates, intensify. Many will be justified, like their inability to define what a woman is, being too close to the trade unions, and not being tough enough on immigration.

Sunak’s New Year speech talked about practicalities, delivering on five key

Whilst many think Labour have got the next general election in the bag, I’d wager that it’s too close to call. I would even have a punt on the Conservatives returning to parliament in 2024 with a small majority.