‘KEEP ’EM HONEST’

By Lenie Lectura

“ Higher demand during summer lowers the available generating capacity from Weeks 17 (April 24 to 30) to 24 (June 12 to 18) of 2023. The supply can further deplete as forced outages of large baseload power plants can unexpectedly occur in these times, likely pushing the system into yellow alert and near red alert levels. This highlights the need to monitor the compliance of all power plants with the GOMP of the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP),” said ICSC chief data scientist Jephraim Manansala.

Th e Department of Energy (DOE) earlier said there would be 15 weeks of yellow alert for the Luzon grid, with peak demand reaching 13,125 megawatts (MW) to occur towards the end of May, an 8.35-percent increase from the actual 2022 peak load of 12,113MW which occurred on May 12, 2022.

ICSC, in its report entitled “Luzon Power Outlook: Reviewing the Adequacy of Power Supply for April to June 2023,” studied the sufficiency of power supply in Luzon for the second quarter of this year based on the power demand forecasts presented by the

DOE last month. Yellow alerts are issued when the level of power reserve in the grid is low, while red alerts are declared when actual power supply against demand is insufficient and power interruptions are imminent.

To prevent the power supply from falling under red alert levels, leading to rotating power interruptions in Luzon, ICSC noted that the government and power industry players in the country need to ensure that power plants comply with NGCP’s GOMP by minimizing outages during this critical period, as mentioned; ancillary services are sufficient to support power transmission; the Interruptible Load Program (ILP) is effectively implemented by distribution utilities and ILP participants; and committed power projects are completed in time to supplement the capacity needed.

For its part, the NGCP said it will allow the generation and distribution sectors to optimize and rationalize maintenance schedules to ensure sufficiency, at least on paper, of power supply throughout the year. “Unplanned shutdowns, which are outside of the GOMP, may still have a significant impact on the supply demand profile if, as in the past years, several power plants simultaneously shut down outside of their schedule,” NGCP said.

W hile the GOMP is formulated to ensure adequacy of supply especially during the critical months, NGCP said there are instances of forced or unplanned outages of plants, which may disrupt the normal operations of the grid and warrant the issuance of yellow or red alerts. “As transmission service provider, NGCP can only give an overview of the current supply and demand situ - ation, and endeavor to dispatch any and all available grid resources. It cannot intervene on matters concerning power generation,” said NGCP.

M anansala pointed out that more long-term solutions are needed to address the Philippines’s energy challenges.

“ The current grid, centralized on large baseload coal power plants, is unsuitable for the country’s variable load demand and recurring supply shortages. Instead, evidence shows that we urgently need to shift towards flexible and distributed power generation using indigenous and readily available renewable energy sources. This will enable us to achieve affordable, reliable, and secure power for everyone, while reducing our reliance on fossil fuels and promoting sustainable development,” he said.

For the DOE’s part, the agency cited a crucial transmission project that could reduce the number of yellow alerts.

With the import from the Visayas of about 250 MW to provide stability to Luzon’s supply, the number of critical weeks with yellow alerts might be reduced,” said DOE Undersecretary Rowena Cristina Guevara.

S he was referring to the interconnection project that will link the Visayas and Mindanao grids, which was expected at 80-percent completion rate last month. However, there is no word yet if the target date for the MVIP was achieved.

Th e DOE is also banking on the ongoing development of the LNG (liquefied natural gas) terminals that will provide fuel to the Ilijan power plant. If and when this happens, there could be an additional 1,200 MW in - jected into the Luzon grid.

L inseed Field Corp. is set to commission the country’s first LNG import terminal in Batangas this month following the arrival of the first LNG commissioning cargo. According to ICSC, the LNG terminal’s timely operation could potentially augment the power supply this quarter and reduce the risk of power outages.

Th e DOE official explained that the country’s energy sector is market-driven and, as such, it is the private sector, comprising of the generation, transmission and distribution, who will have to work very hard to make this outlook a reality.

Of course, demand-side management [DSM] is expected from our residential, commercial and industrial consumers. We all have to do our part.

“ The DOE family will continue to come up with relevant, timely and fair policies, policy recommendations and programs, in partnership with our stakeholders, to deliver secure, sustainable, sufficient, affordable and environment-friendly energy to all economic sectors,” added Guevara.

M anansala agreed that aside from the government and key power sector players, the cooperation of consumers is needed in ensuring the continuous supply of electricity in Luzon. He said consumers must practice energy-saving measures in their workplace, shift energy-intensive activities to non-peak hours, and upgrade to more efficient technologies in homes, commercial and industrial establishments to help balance the power supply in the grid and reduce the risk of power outages.

Th e DOE has been pushing for DSM programs for vari - ous sectors to soften the impact of any power supply tightness. These are initiatives meant to encourage consumers to optimize their energy consumption. We should not look at demand-side management as only a band-aid solution. Instead, it should be a natural element embedded already in our entire management system,” DOE Secretary Raphael Lotilla said. “If our consumption becomes more efficient, that means we will no longer have to run diesel-fired power plants that are more expensive.”

Th e Manila Electric Company (Meralco), for instance, wants more of its large customers to sign up for its Interruptible Load Program (ILP).

Th e ILP is a DSM program wherein participants will be asked to temporarily de-load from the grid and use their generator sets when there is supply deficiency and power interruptions are imminent.

I n this case, the ILP participants may run their facilities to allow more grid capacity to serve other customers.

A ccording to the DOE, the DSM programs for various sectors focus on the utilization of efficient equipment and appliances, and the promotion and implementation of policies and programs that best fit each industry.

F or the commercial sector, the utilization of energyefficient equipment such as inverter-type air conditioners and LED lightings is promoted. Further, the promotion of the energy-labeling program will ensure informed decisions of households regarding the energy performance and efficiency of all household appliances.