PBBM admin retains GDP forecast, narrows full-year inflation outlook

By Jasper Emmanuel Y. Arcalas

THE administration of President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. has maintained its economic growth outlook of 6 percent to 7 percent for this year despite a “narrowed” full-year inflation forecast as it took into account the detrimental effects of El Niño and global economic slowdown.

“We have maintained our growth assumptions at 6.0 to 7.0 percent for 2023 and 6.5 to 8.0 percent for 2024 to 2028, taking into account both domestic and external risks,” Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman, who chairs the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC), said in a news briefing on Friday.

“These projections have already taken into account the risks posed by El Niño and other natural disasters, global trade tensions, and value chain disruptions, among other factors,” Pangandaman added.

The DBCC revised downward the upper end of its inflation estimate for this year to 6 percent from its earlier forecast of 7 percent.

This now brings the economic managers’ inflation forecast for 2023 between 5 percent to 6 percent.

The economic managers revised their inflation forecast due to the “consistent” slowdown in the rate of increase of the prices of goods and services in the first four months of the year, Pangandaman explained.

“It is expected that the inflation rate will return to the target range of 2.0 to 4.0 percent by 2024 and 2028 as the administration, through the Inter-Agency Committee on Inflation and Market Outlook [IAC-IMO], provides proactive measures to address the primary drivers of inflation,” she said.

“This, together with appropriate monetary policy actions of the BSP, will help ensure a return to the inflation target over the policy horizon,” she added.

Despite improved inflation outlook this year, the economic managers maintained the same economic growth forecast after they took into consideration the confluence of domestic and external factors, National Economic and Development Authority Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said.

Balisacan explained that the economic managers recognized that there are still external economic factors like the projected slowdown in global economic growth and the El Niño threat this year.

On the domestic front, Balisacan noted the impact of the “lag effects” of high interest rates on the growth of the economy in the succeeding quarters.

“I think overall, putting all these together, we believe that 6 percent to 7 percent growth is very much manageable,” he said.

The DBCC also revised downward its external trade projections for the country for this year.

The DBCC slashed its export growth forecast to just 1 percent from 3 percent and its import growth outlook to 2 percent from four percent.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to a substantial number of overseas Filipinos,” Marcos said.

Deputy Governor Francisco G. Dakila Jr. explained that the revision in terms of the export growth forecast factored in latest trade data of the Philippine Statistics Authority as well as the deceleration in key items like semiconductor, coconut, and mineral products due to decline of commodity prices.

Lower import growth was attributed to “moderation” in commodity prices and tepid raw material demand because of weaker manufacturing and export activities, Dakila added.

Nonetheless, DBCC expressed optimism that despite all the headwinds the country would still achieve upper-middle-income status in the next two years.

“The DBCC is confident that the country can withstand these risks and achieve upper-middleincome status in the next two years through the implementation of near- and medium-term strategies, such as ensuring timely and adequate importation, providing preemptive measures to address El Niño, strengthening biosecurity, enhancing agricultural productivity, and pushing for legislative reforms, including the Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy Competitiveness and Development Act, among others,” it said.

THE Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) seized some 13,784 vape products worth P4.25 million from non-compliant stores across the National Capital Region (NCR).

In a statement on issued on Thursday, Trade Secretary Alfredo E. Pascual reported that as of June 1, 2023, DTI’s monitoring teams monitored 29,167 firms, of which 583 are physical stores and 28,584 are online stores.

O ut of the 583 physical stores monitored, 229 were found compliant to the prohibitions and regulations established by Republic Act No. 11900 or the “Vaporized Nicotine and Non-Nicotine Products Regulations Act.” Meanwhile, 214 were found to be allegedly noncompliant.

As for the 28,584 online st ores monitored, DTI said only 175 were found to be compliant after “physical validation,” while 28,409 were allegedly non-compliant. The DTI said 26,986 online stores are still undergoing physical validation.

As a result of the monitoring, the DTI-Fair Trade Enforcement Bureau (FTEB) issued a Notice of Violation (NOV)/Show Cause Order (SCO) to 72 firms. The DTI said it has confiscated 13,784 products from non-compliant stores with a retail value of P4,252,523.

Strengthening that relationship, he said, is now one of the priorities of his administration.

Part of the said effort, he said, was his talk with Chinese President Xi Jinping in January for better communications and understanding of fishing grounds in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) to address territorial issues.

“We will strive to make it more comprehensive, more strategic, all with a view to advancing the paramount interests of both our nations and our peoples,” Marcos said.

This year’s APPCU Hall of Fame awardees are Former President Duterte and former Special Envoy of the President to the People’s Republic of China, Ambassador Carlos Chan.

The awardees for the APPCU Outstanding Contributions are Ambassador Rigoberto D. Tiglao, a columnist at the Manila Times and the former Philippine Ambassador to Greece and Cyprus, and Dr. Jaime T. Cruz, former Special Envoy to the People’s Republic of China, Trade and Investments. The awardees for the Major Contributions category are Regina Rosa D. Tecson, the Director of the Satellite Office of Vice President Sarah Duterte in Davao City, and Jose Ong Tajan, the former President of APCU Baguio and also the former chairman of the FilipinoChinese Chamber of Commerce of Baguio City.

Samuel P. Medenilla