www.business-review.eu Business Review | February 2021
22 ECONOMY
Will a prolonged pandemic push recovery back to 2022? There’s finally a light at the end of the COVID-19 tunnel: vaccinations have started, and more types of vaccine are on their way to approval. Millions of people all over the world have already received a vaccine, and the rate will keep growing assuming that producers manage to keep up with demand. Nevertheless, the road ahead remains bumpy. By Aurel Constantin had a mixed performance: after a relatively good period just before the crisis (with the second best growth rate in Europe in Q1 2020), the country’s Q2 GDP decline was close to the EU average, but in Q3, its GDP recorded one of the five largest declines in Europe. If we were to draw a comparison to the previous financial crisis, we’d see that Romania had also started from the highest GDP growth in Europe in 2008, experienced a drop that was close to the EU average in 2009, only to end up among the three worst performers in 2010, when its GDP decline continued even as most EU countries had returned to growth. The time lag between European and Romanian economic phenomena suggests that Romania is dependent on other EU countries and that it is positioned at the lower end of the value chain, which results in economic waves hitting us later. Romanian companies should be proactive and become more agile
T
There are many uncertainties about 2021, but to have a chance of success, Romanian companies should follow a few simple rules:
here are questions that still need to
population has expressed a desire to get the
be proactive, stick to a clear vision, increase
be answered, as Boston Consulting
vaccine as soon as possible. Furthermore, we
demand vitality, become more agile, and
Group (BCG) analysts recently noted.
shall see how efficient future administrative
build enterprise resilience. The post-COVID-19 recovery is impacted
The first one refers to the effectiveness of
measures will be, because the fact that the
vaccine deployment at scale. It remains to be
vaccination campaign has started doesn’t
by government policies as well as business
seen whether pharmaceutical companies will
mean we can get rid of all restrictions.
and public responses, but it is clear that the
The answer to each of these questions
complete return to normal economic activity
with the schedules outlined by governments.
will have a significant impact on the length
can only be achieved if the pandemic comes
For example, Romania should have 10.4 mil-
of the pandemic: optimistically, we could see
under control.
lion people vaccinated by the end of Septem-
it winding down in the second half of 2021,
ber 2021, which requires a supply of over 20
while the pessimistic scenario would take us
like France, Spain, Switzerland, and the UK,
million vaccines; but there are no guarantees
into the second half of 2022, according to the
but are now seeing a strong resurgence. In
that the country will receive all these doses.
BCG report.
other countries, including the US, Argentina,
be able to provide enough doses to keep up
The virus spread had flattened in countries
and Brazil, the curve was never really flat-
There are also issues surrounding people’s willingness to undergo vaccination. So far,
A MIXED ECONOMIC PICTURE
tened, and the battle is still ongoing. Roma-
only around 40 percent of the Romanian
In this context, the Romanian economy has
nia, as well as other SEE countries such as
