Curious Coachowner

Number 280 of a Series

“The Curious Coachowner” is a question and answer column that provides simple answers to simple questions that are too short to warrant a full article or inclusion in one of our regular columns. We will accept reasonably simple technical or historical questions on commercial coaches or converted coach shells by letter, fax, e-mail or phone. If our staff is unable to answer them, we will call upon our panel of experts. Names and addresses should be submitted with your questions, but we will withhold names from publication on request. We reserve the right to modify questions to make them more useful to our readers.

Q. Howbadoffisthebusindustry? ––SeveralReaders

A. This has been somewhat of a key question lately. From what we hear, I suspect that many people outside of the industry are not aware of how bad things are.

Some people are asking whether the pandemic is worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s. No one has been able to answer that since the bus industry was marketedly different in the 1930s, and it would be difficult to compare with today. Besides, we cannot find anyone in the bus industry who remembers those days.

While city transit bus people have some government money to fall back on, the private coach people have been struggling. The latest statistics we saw indicate that the transportation, leisure and hospitality industries account for 50 percent of the lost jobs during the pandemic. Hence, the bus industry is among the worst affected.

Since things are at least somewhat different between the bus operators and the industry manufacturers and suppliers, we can review each of the separately.

BusOperators While city transit operations have their problems, the private coach operators have been hit very hard. However, a general observation is that while 2020 was a downhill slide for the bus people, 2021 should see some movement back upward again.

Depending on who you talk to, somewhere between 400 and 500 private bus companies went out of business in 2020. This is a significant part of the industry and no one is sure whether any of these operations will be replaced in the future. Hence, it is obvious that the bus industry will not soon return to what it once was.

On the other hand, prospects for 2021 look good. Numerous coaches are back on the road using plastic partitions, safety features and masks. The experts are calling for an increase in travel in the second quarter of 2021 and another increase in the third quarter of 2021.

As we go to press, the vaccine is already out and the medical people have received their shots. Next in line are the seniors, and it is being predicted that many of them will jump on tour buses once they feel safe.

The Curious Coachowner

ManufacturersandSuppliers In contrast, the bus manufacturers and suppliers seem to be having a more difficult time in 2021. To some extent they coasted through 2020 because budgets were set and sales were happening prior to the pandemic.

Now, faced with a lack of sales in 2021, many have cut back their marketing budgets in spite of the fact that the experts recommend continued marketing in a recession. This is what has caused problems for us here at NATIONAL BUS TRADER since it has been the industry advertisers that have paid for printing. Without their advertising, there is no money.

From their standpoint, things will not improve until new bus sales start increasing again. Bus operations should ramp up as we move through 2021 but with so many recent buses on the used market, it may take a while for this to happen. If you want to help the bus industry, go out and buy some new buses.

We have no idea on how long it will take for the situation to improve enough for the manufacturers and suppliers to start marketing again. That is a very key question right now.

Q. WhenwillweseetheRoundupguide tousedbuspricingagain? ––SeveralReaders

A. For those who do not know, the used bus market has been decimated by the pandemic. Even before the pandemic hit, the industry had too many pre-owned coaches on the market. Why? There are several reasons for this. One is that the used coaches usually go to companies first starting in the business that cannot afford new coaches. There are been fewer start-ups lately and increased government regulations have not helped. There are also fewer people buying used coaches for motor home conversions. In addition, since the manufacturers have been adding so many new systems and safety features, the newest coaches have advantages over the older ones.

All of this has combined to cause an over abundance of pre-owned coaches on the market and some manufacturers may not want to take on more trade-ins. As a result, used bus prices are down significantly. Until this situation improves, we will refrain from trying to offer used bus prices that may not be realistic.

Q. Am I mistaken or am I seeing more materialfromEuropeinyourpages? ––NortheastBusOperator

A. The bus industry in Europe appears to be more active lately than it is in the United States and Canada. There may be several reasons for this. One is that the Europeans are a couple years ahead of us in batteryelectric transit buses. There has been a lot of activity in this sector lately with more manufacturers getting on the bandwagon.

What may be a second reason for higher activity in Europe is that they tend to be less concerned with residual value on used coaches. Much of their operations are set up so that residual value is not a big factor for them and hence residual value has a less significant impact on new coach sales.

Q. What will happen with National Bus Traderpaidsubscriptions? ––SeveralReaders

A. Plans are to offer the digital magazine for free for a while and then phase paid subscriptions back in. This may take a while because we are shorthanded in the office and running behind.

We continue to keep track of subscriptions. Subscribers who have not given us their e-mail can send it to readers@busmag.com.

Answers not credited to other individuals are provided by Larry Plachno. q