Historic Hereford Opportunity

When 2023 begins, there will likely be approximately 3% fewer beef cows year over year in the U.S. inventory — about 29.2 million head. That would be 2.5 million fewer cows than the most recent peak of 31.7 million in 2019.

When the current drought ends, supply fundamentals suggest enough economic incentive for cow-calf producers to build back by at least 2.5 million cows. If you figure 30 cows per bull, then the bull supply needs to grow by at least 83,000 head. That’s the opportunity Hereford and other breeds have to expand market share.

For perspective, total registrations through the American Hereford Association (AHA) in fiscal year 2022 (FY22) were 76,762. About 31,000 of those were bulls.

When the last persistent, widespread drought forced significant U.S. beef cow herd liquidation two decades ago, producers restocked with cows capable of producing calves with higher carcass quality. Arguably, they did so mostly with highpercentage and straightbred Angus cattle.

Since then, the percentage of carcasses achieving USDA Quality Grade Choice and higher continues to grow, as does consumer willingness to pay more for more pounds of higher quality beef.

However, based on various data over time, commercial cow herd performance has remained static or declined when it comes to key revenue metrics like reproductive efficiency, weaning weights and weaning weights per cow exposed.

So, Hereford opportunity to expand market share is magnified by the industry’s need to incorporate more heterosis as it rebuilds the cow herd.

Capitalizing on this historic opportunity demands a cohesive breed message, which highlights Hereford’s inherent genetic advantages, trend of genetic improvement and the economic value of direct and maternal heterosis. You will find these and other key messages in this booklet.

Of course, exploiting this opportunity also requires structurally sound bulls with the herd-improving genetic merit demanded by customers, backed by customer service integrity.