Quarter 2, 2020
The purpose of this survey is to provide a general market overview only. Although every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate, the BVRLA cannot accept any liability whatsoever for any inaccuracy contained within it, nor for any damage or loss, direct or indirect, which may be suffered as a result of any reliance placed upon the contents provided, whether arising in contract, tort or in any other way. Advice should always be obtained from your own professional advisers before committing to a specific action.
2
Key results 2020 quarter 2 The lockdown quarter The BVRLA Overall Fleet (OF) for cars and LCVs is 2,532,972. This is made up of 83% cars (2,105,429) and 17% LCVs (427,543). The OF has dropped by -1.2% (down 29,711) compared to the preceding quarter. These numbers include all cars and LCVs in the BVRLA fleet except PCP, daily rental & credit hire. Trading during quarter 2 was significantly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing lockdown. Lockdown was announced on 16th March 2020 and came fully into force on 23rd March, one week before the start of the quarter. The loosening of lockdown has been gradual, but significant dates include 10th May when people were permitted to leave their house more than once a day; and on 1st June when a number of non-essential retail including car dealerships were permitted to open, as the UK Government started to establish rules for doing business with reduced risk of infection. It can be assumed therefore that two of the three months in the quarter were directly impacted by Government imposed lockdown, and the third by the consequences of the full lockdown and by emerging new rules for doing business during the pandemic. Additionally the government intervened in the market to enforce forbearance and a halting of repossessions for consumers, and by providing other assistance to businesses including subsidised furloughing of staff, grants and provision of loans on preferential terms. These interventions may be expected to affect the fleet market along with any economic downturn in due course. The clear effect for quarter 2 however is a marked reduction in new registrations between 2020 quarter 2 and preceding quarters of between 30 and 33%. The relatively small drop in OF suggests that there was also a reduction in the number of vehicles de-fleeted during the quarter compared to preceding quarters. The industry in quarter 2 is therefore perhaps best characterized, based on the data, as having been locked-out during lockdown. Notwithstanding low levels of transactions during lockdown, important changes in fleet sales have continued. Uptake of BEVs has continued to increase – with market share of new registrations rising 4.6% year on year. This reflects changes in the retail auto market but not the magnitude - where sales of BEVs increased by 21% and 261% in May and June respectively. Non-plug-in hybrids increased by 10% year on year. Petrol and diesel sales continued to reduce by 5.3% and 7.5% year on year respectively.
3
Introduction and methodology Definition of groups Overall Fleet (OF)
2,532,972 2,105,429
Sample
427,543
A Sample Group (SG) of members are surveyed quarterly (light green left) to calculate a growth multiplier for each finance product and vehicle type which is used to calculate overall volumes for all members (and within a year for any members departing during the year) by finance product and vehicle type.
Group (SG)
Type
Reporting Group (RG)
YES
Business
YES
1,062,003
743,251
318,752
YES
Consumer
YES
298,264
291,734
6,530
NO
Business
YES
417,639
318,137
99,502
NO
Consumer
YES
32,357
32,216
141
NO
ALL
CAR
A new methodology has been used for the last three quarters.
LCV
Figures reported throughout the Quarterly Leasing Report are of a wider group called the Reporting Group (RG), and this includes members who are current at the start of the reporting year, provided they have been members for the preceding three years. Reported trends are therefore the result of market changes rather than changes in membership. Members included in the RG change once a year (and this happened this quarter). Their volumes are collected once per year in the annual membership census.
Business
NO
88,276
85,658
2,618
NO
Consumer
NO
20,433
20,433
0
The third group includes members who have joined within the last three years, and Motability which is excluded from the survey for other reasons.
NO
Consumer
Excluded
614,000
614,000
0
The SG accounted for 75% of the RG. The RG is 71% of the Overall Fleet (OF). The SG is not a true representative sample of the OF because it excludes captives, and it samples disproportionately more large fleets than small. Further work will be carried out to encourage more captives and small fleet providers into the SG.
4
Introduction and methodology Other changes to the Quarterly Leasing Survey are as follows:
Managing compliant publication of members’ data
First, we have removed the concept of risk fleet, focussing instead on consumer and business fleets which are dominated by PCH and BCH respectively. The large PCP fleets, mainly reported by manufacturer captives, are excluded. Salary sacrifice and ECOS are recorded as consumer; and salary sacrifice is reported separately to contract hire. Daily rental and credit hire continue to be excluded from the survey.
The BVRLA have agreed a number of safeguards around disclosure of members’ data. A summary of the rules is as follows:
Second, we have added a range of new measures including a more comprehensive look by contract type at the following: the number of maintained contracts; the number of contracts for new and used cars, and the number of contracts derived from different channels to market. Channels to market categories will require further work because the “Other” group is too large.
Second, data will be only be provided as aggregated totals derived from sufficient members that the performance of individual members is not revealed. In all cases the minimum necessary number of members will be five.
Third the fuel types have been adjusted to categories now in general use focussing on petrol and diesel, plug-in versus non-plug-in hybrids, and BEVs. The distinction between petrol and diesel hybrids has been dropped, and HEV, FCEV and MHEV has been adopted as sub-sets of non-plug-in hybrids.
A copy of the full data compliancy guidelines is available from Phil Garthside at the BVRLA.
These detailed measures are surveyed using the Sample Group but expressed in the proportions found, as volumes for the whole Reporting Group.
First, it has been agreed that the release of any market data from the fleet leasing survey will be withheld for a minimum of three months.
Third, processes for collection and processing of member data have been established to protect the confidentiality of members’ data.
September 2020
5
The BVRLA fleet The BVRLA Overall Fleet including cars and LCVs is 2,532,972 of which 83% are cars and 17% are LCVs. This figure excludes short term rental, credit hire, and PCP finance (the latter predominantly from manufacturer captives). The BVRLA Reporting Group fleet volumes are summarised below. The Reporting Group (RG) contains all members who have reported fleet sizes in all of the last three years. The RG has diminished – 3.6% year-on-year in 2020 Q2 (down – 67,056 to 1,810,263). This comprises a fall of – 5.2% in cars (down -75,740 to 1,385,338) and an increase of +2.1% in LCVs (up +8,684 to 424,925). Vehicle
2017 Q1
2017 Q2
2017 Q3
2017 Q4
2018 Q1
2018 Q2
2018 Q3
2018 Q4
2019 Q1
2019 Q2
2019 Q3
2019 Q4
2020 Q1
2020 Q2
ALL
1,852,049
1,876,361
1,890,590
1,917,054
1,904,337
1,894,286
1,893,953
1,896,308
1,877,413
1,877,319
1,867,880
1,858,650
1,840,079
1,810,263
CAR
1,455,696
1,475,161
1,491,456
1,518,615
1,502,543
1,487,622
1,488,521
1,484,455
1,463,857
1,461,078
1,451,803
1,442,061
1,417,851
1,385,338
LCV
396,353
401,200
399,134
398,439
401,794
406,664
405,432
411,853
413,556
416,241
416,077
416,589
422,228
424,925
% Y/Y
2017 Q1
2017 Q2
2017 Q3
2017 Q4
2018 Q1
2018 Q2
2018 Q3
2018 Q4
2019 Q1
2019 Q2
2019 Q3
2019 Q4
2020 Q1
2020 Q2
ALL
11%
9.3%
7.5%
5.0%
2.8%
1.0%
0.2%
-1.1%
-1.4%
-0.9%
-1.4%
-2.0%
-2.0%
-3.6%
CAR
12%
11%
8.7%
6.0%
3.2%
0.8%
-0.2%
-2.2%
-2.6%
-1.8%
-2.5%
-2.9%
-3.1%
-5.2%
LCV
3.9%
4.1%
3.4%
1.3%
1.4%
1.4%
1.6%
3.4%
2.9%
2.4%
2.6%
1.1%
2.1%
2.1%
6
BVRLA car fleet The BVRLA Overall Fleet for cars is 2,105,429 of which 54% is business fleet and 46% is consumer fleet. This figure excludes short term rental, credit hire, and PCP finance (the latter predominantly from manufacturer captives) and recognises Motability as a consumer finance product. The Reporting Group shrank in 2020 Q1 by -5.2% (down -75,740 to 1,385,338) continuing a trend of reduction which started in Q3 2018. Relatively small reductions in overall fleet size mask larger shifts in business and consumer fleets.
Year-on-year business fleet reduced in size by – 8.1% (-93,788 to 1,061,338) in 2020 Q1 the largest % drop over the period measured, but consumer fleet increased in size by +5.9% (+18,048 to 323,950). Cars by Product Type
2017 Q1
2017 Q2
2017 Q3
2017 Q4
2018 Q1
2018 Q2
2018 Q3
2018 Q4
2019 Q1
2019 Q2
2019 Q3
2019 Q4
2020 Q1
2020 Q2
ALL
1,455,696
1,475,161
1,491,456
1,518,615
1,502,543
1,487,622
1,488,521
1,484,455
1,463,857
1,461,078
1,451,803
1,442,061
1,417,851
1,385,338
BUSINESS
1,223,566
1,237,255
1,243,070
1,256,733
1,241,697
1,221,841
1,207,337
1,189,176
1,169,647
1,155,176
1,138,063
1,124,809
1,097,740
1,061,388
317,252
320,111
CONSUMER
% Y/Y
232,130
2017 Q1
237,906
2017 Q2
248,386
2017 Q3
261,882
2017 Q4
260,846
2018 Q1
265,781
2018 Q2
281,184
2018 Q3
295,279
2018 Q4
294,210
2019 Q1
305,902
2019 Q2
313,740
2019 Q3
2019 Q4
2020 Q1
323,950
2020 Q2
ALL
13%
11%
8.7%
6.0%
3.2%
0.8%
-0.2%
-2.2%
-2.6%
-1.8%
-2.5%
-2.9%
-3.1%
-5.2%
BUSINESS
9.2%
8.5%
6.3%
3.6%
1.5%
-1.2%
-2.9%
-5.4%
-5.8%
-5.5%
-5.7%
-5.4%
-6.1%
-8.1%
CONSUMER
33%
25%
22%
20%
12%
12%
13%
13%
13%
15%
12%
7.4%
% Cross ALL
2017 Q1
2017 Q2
2017 Q3
2017 Q4
2018 Q1
2018 Q2
2018 Q3
2018 Q4
2019 Q1
2019 Q2
2019 Q3
2019 Q4
8.8% 5.9% 2020 Q1 2020 Q2
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
BUSINESS
84%
84%
83.3%
83%
83%
82%
81%
80%
80%
79%
78%
78%
77%
77%
CONSUMER
16%
16%
17%
17%
17%
18%
19%
20%
20%
21%
22%
22%
23%
23%
7
BVRLA car market Business and consumer car fleet by quarter
Percentage growth in business and consumer car fleet 40.0%
1,600,000 1,500,000
30.0%
1,100,000 1,000,000
20.0%
600,000 500,000
10.0% 0.0%
BUSINESS
CONSUMER
Q2 2020 Q2 2020
Q1 2020 Q1 2020
Q4 2019 Q4 2019
Q3 2019 Q3 2019
Q2 2019 Q2 2019
Q1 2019 Q1 2019
Q4 2018 Q4 2018
2018 Q3 2018 Q3
2018 Q2 2018 Q2
2018 Q1 2018 Q1
2017 Q4 2017 Q4
2017 Q3 2017 Q3
2017 Q2 2017 Q2
-400,000
2017 Q1 2017 Q1
100,0000
-10.0%
20172017201720172018201820182018201920192019201920202020 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 BUSINESS
CONSUMER
8
BVRLA LCV fleet 430,000 440,000
The overall size of the BVRLA LCV fleet is 427,543 of which 98% is business fleet.
420,000 420,000 410,000
The Reporting Group ended 2020 Q2 totalling 424,925 (98% of the overall fleet), which increased in 2020 Q2 +2.1% (up +8,684 to 424,925).
400,000 390,000 380,000 380,000 360,000
Over the last two quarters there has been a marked increase in consumer financed LCVs up 41% (+1,923 to 6,671) in 2020 Q2. 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Business Q1 Q2 Q3Consumer Q4 Q1
Business
Product Type ALL
2017 Q1 396,353
BUSINESS CONSUMER % Y/Y
392,943 3,410 2017 Q1
2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
Consumer
2017 Q2 401,200
397,185 4,015 2017 Q2
2017 Q3 399,134
394,686 4,448 2017 Q3
2017 Q4 398,439
393,923 4,516 2017 Q4
2018 Q1 401,794
397,345 4,449 2018 Q1
2018 Q2 406,664
401,986 4,678 2018 Q2
2018 Q3 405,432
400,830 4,602 2018 Q3
2018 Q4 411,853
407,244 4,609 2018 Q4
2019 Q1 413,556
408,850 4,706 2019 Q1
2019 Q2 416,241
411,502 4,739 2019 Q2
2019 Q3 416,077
411,254 4,823 2019 Q3
2019 Q4
2020 Q1
2020 Q2
416,589
422,228
424,925
411,881
416,292
418,254
4,708
5,936
2019 Q4
2020 Q1
6,671 2020 Q2
ALL
3.9%
4.1%
3.4%
1.3%
1.4%
1.4%
1.6%
3.4%
2.9%
2.4%
2.6%
1.1%
2.1%
2.1%
BUSINESS
3.6%
3.8%
3.0%
1.0%
1.1%
1.2%
1.6%
3.4%
2.9%
2.4%
2.6%
1.1%
1.8%
1.6%
CONSUMER
55%
57%
57%
43%
31%
17%
3.5%
2.1%
5.8%
1.3%
4.8%
2.1%
26%
% Cross
2017 Q1
2017 Q2
2017 Q3
2017 Q4
2018 Q1
2018 Q2
2018 Q3
2018 Q4
2019 Q1
2019 Q2
2019 Q3
2019 Q4
2020 Q1
41% 2020 Q2
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
BUSINESS
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
98%
CONSUMER
0.9%
1.0%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.2%
1.1%
1.4%
1.6%
ALL
9
BVRLA car market by finance product Year-on-year, business contract hire reduced by -9.7% (down -85,195 to 793,171), the lowest during the period measured. Personal contract hire increased by +5.7% (up 14,736 to 271,264). Finance Product Business contract hire Finance lease Business other Fleet management only BUSINESS ALL Personal contract hire Salary sacrifice Personal other CONSUMER ALL ALL
2017 Q1 941,477 29,921 17,148 235,020 1,223,566 165,663 32,600 33,867 232,130 1,455,696
2017 Q2 941,116 27,909 19,563 248,667 1,237,255 174,298 29,229 34,379 237,906 1,475,161
2017 Q3 929,962 29,256 19,775 264,077 1,243,070 180,641 33,436 34,309 248,386 1,491,456
2017 Q4 933,682 29,168 17,477 276,406 1,256,733 193,877 32,818 35,187 261,882 1,518,615
2018 Q1 927,051 27,078 17,304 270,264 1,241,697 200,346 32,999 27,501 260,846 1,502,543
2018 Q2 919,231 26,312 16,422 259,876 1,221,841 207,790 31,728 26,263 265,781 1,487,622
2018 Q3 913,563 25,993 16,172 251,609 1,207,337 226,812 29,067 25,305 281,184 1,488,521
2018 Q4 903,880 25,070 15,125 245,101 1,189,176 243,186 28,037 24,056 295,279 1,484,455
2019 Q1 889,471 24,888 16,192 239,096 1,169,647 250,260 26,761 17,189 294,210 1,463,857
2019 Q2 878,366 25,322 16,188 235,300 1,155,176 256,528 25,477 23,897 305,902 1,461,078
2019 Q3 863,500 25,582 14,770 234,211 1,138,063 265,854 23,973 23,913 313,740 1,451,803
2019 Q4 853,986 27,148 15,924 227,751 1,124,809 271,663 23,390 22,199 317,252 1,442,061
2020 Q1 829,861 26,430 15,634 225,815 1,097,740 272,377 24,128 23,606 320,111 1,417,851
2020 Q2 793,171 26,273 14,480 227,464 1,061,388 271,264 23,637 29,049 323,950 1,385,338
% Y/Y Business contract hire Finance lease Business other Fleet management only BUSINESS ALL Personal contract hire Salary sacrifice Personal other CONSUMER ALL ALL
2017 Q1 5.9% 6.6% 15% 24% 9.2% 45% 15.4% 6.7% 33% 12%
2017 Q2 4.6% 2.6% 12% 27% 8.5% 36% -0.8% 4.4% 25% 10.8%
2017 Q3 1.9% 3.5% 38% 24% 6.3% 30% 8.3% 2.8% 22% 8.7%
2017 Q4 -1.1% -2.4% 1% 25% 3.6% 27% 3.1% 2.8% 20% 6.0%
2018 Q1 -1.5% -9.5% 1% 15% 1.5% 21% 1.2% -19% 12% 3.2%
2018 Q2 -2.3% -5.7% -16.1% 4.5% -1.2% 19% 8.5% -24% 12% 0.8%
2018 Q3 -1.8% -11.2% -18.2% -4.7% -2.9% 26% -13% -26% 13% -0.2%
2018 Q4 -3.2% -14.0% -13.5% -11.3% -5.4% 25% -15% -32% 13% -2.2%
2019 Q1 -4.1% -8.1% -6.4% -11.5% -5.8% 25% -19% -38% 13% -2.6%
2019 Q2 -4.4% -3.8% -1.4% -9.5% -5.5% 24% -20% -9.0% 15% -1.8%
2019 Q3 -5.5% -1.6% -8.7% -6.9% -5.7% 17% -18% -5.5% 12% -2.5%
2019 Q4 -5.5% 8.3% 5.3% -7.1% -5.4% 12% -17% -7.7% 7.4% -2.9%
2020 Q1 -6.7% 6.2% -3.4% -5.6% -6.1% 8.8% -9.8% 37.3% 8.8% -3.1%
2020 Q2 -9.7% 3.8% -10.6% -3.3% -8.1% 5.7% -7.2% 21.6% 5.9% -5.2%
% Cross Business contract hire Finance lease Business other Fleet management only BUSINESS ALL Personal contract hire Salary sacrifice Personal other CONSUMER ALL ALL
2017 Q1 65% 2.1% 1.2% 16% 84% 11% 2.2% 2.3% 16% 100%
2017 Q2 64% 1.9% 1.3% 17% 84% 12% 2.0% 2.3% 16% 100%
2017 Q3 62% 2.0% 1.3% 18% 83% 12% 2.2% 2.3% 17% 100%
2017 Q4 62% 1.9% 1.2% 18% 83% 13% 2.2% 2.3% 17% 100%
2018 Q1 62% 1.8% 1.2% 18% 83% 13% 2.2% 1.8% 17% 100%
2018 Q2 62% 1.8% 1.1% 18% 82% 14% 2.1% 1.8% 18% 100%
2018 Q3 61% 1.7% 1.1% 17% 81% 15% 2.0% 1.7% 19% 100%
2018 Q4 61% 1.7% 1.0% 17% 80% 16% 1.9% 1.6% 20% 100%
2019 Q1 61% 1.7% 1.1% 16% 80% 17% 1.8% 1.2% 20% 100%
2019 Q2 60% 1.7% 1.1% 16% 79% 18% 1.7% 1.6% 21% 100%
2019 Q3 60% 1.8% 1.0% 16% 78% 18% 1.7% 1.6% 22% 100%
2019 Q4 59% 1.9% 1.1% 16% 78% 19% 1.6% 1.5% 22% 100%
2020 Q1 59% 1.9% 1.1% 16% 77% 19% 1.7% 1.7% 23% 100%
2020 Q2 57% 1.9% 1.0% 16% 77% 20% 1.7% 2.1% 23% 100%
Personal contract hire
8% 50% 30%
6% 45% 25%
4% 40%
2% 35%
0% 30%
-2% 25%
-4% 20%
-6% 15% 0%
-8% 10% -5%
-10% 5%
-10%
-12% 0%
-15%
2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2
Business contract hire
2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2
2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2
10
BVRLA fleet car market year-on-year growth business and personal contract hire, fleet management Fleet management only
20%
15%
10% 5%
11
BVRLA LCV market by finance product LCV market grew by 2% year on year – largely unchanged from the preceding quarter. Finance Product Business contract hire Finance lease Business other Fleet management only BUSINESS ALL Personal contract hire Salary sacrifice Consumer other CONSUMER ALL ALL
2017 Q1 264,093 70,170 18,741 39,939 392,943 3,402
2017 Q2 272,166 70,692 15,021 39,306 397,185 4,007
2017 Q3 274,610 71,428 12,044 36,604 394,686 4,438
2017 Q4 278,893 70,928 8,245 35,857 393,923 4,506
8 3,410 396,353
8 4,015 401,200
10 4,448 399,134
% Y/Y Business contract hire Finance lease Business other Fleet management only BUSINESS ALL Personal contract hire Personal other CONSUMER ALL ALL
2017 Q1 12.8% 11.5% -56.6% 1.7% 3.6% 55.3% 0.0% 55.1% 3.9%
2017 Q2 13.3% 8.8% -59.9% -2.2% 3.8% 57.1% 0.0% 56.9% 4.1%
% Cross Business contract hire Finance lease Business other Fleet management only BUSINESS ALL Personal contract hire Salary sacrifice Personal other CONSUMER ALL ALL
2017 Q1 67% 18% 4.7% 10% 99% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 100%
2017 Q2 68% 18% 3.7% 9.8% 99% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 100%
2019 Q2 286,862 77,932 7,415 39,293 411,502 4,706 1 32 4,739 416,241
2019 Q3 285,749 78,814 7,328 39,363 411,254 4,790
2019 Q4 286,292 79,538 7,706 38,345 411,881 4,674
2020 Q1 288,895 77,753 9,464 40,180 416,292 5,901
2020 Q2 289,040 78,715 10,271 40,228 418,254 6,636
11 4,609 411,853
2019 Q1 287,505 77,540 7,330 36,475 408,850 4,672 1 33 4,706 413,556
33 4,823 416,077
34 4,708 416,589
35 5,936 422,228
35 6,671 424,925
2018 Q3 2.9% 4.8% -38.9% -1.6% 1.6% 3.4% 10.0% 3.5% 1.6%
2018 Q4 2.6% 7.8% -13.8% 4.6% 3.4% 2.0% 10.0% 2.1% 3.4%
2019 Q1 3.0% 6.6% -9.1% -2.6% 2.9% 5.3% 230.0% 5.8% 2.9%
2019 Q2 1.3% 5.9% -4.4% 4.6% 2.4% 0.8% 220.0% 1.3% 2.4%
2019 Q3 1.1% 5.2% -0.3% 9.2% 2.6% 4.3% 200.0% 4.8% 2.6%
2019 Q4 0.1% 4.0% 8.4% 2.2% 1.1% 1.7% 209.1% 2.1% 1.1%
2020 Q1 0.5% 0.3% 29.1% 10.2% 1.8% 26.3% 6.1% 26.1% 2.1%
2020 Q2 0.8% 1.0% 38.5% 2.4% 1.6% 41.0% 9.4% 40.8% 2.1%
2018 Q3 70% 19% 1.8% 8.9% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%
2018 Q4 70% 19% 1.7% 9.1% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%
2019 Q1 70% 19% 1.8% 8.8% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%
2019 Q2 69% 19% 1.8% 9.4% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%
2019 Q3 69% 19% 1.8% 9.5% 99% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 100%
2019 Q4 69% 19% 1.8% 9.2% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%
2020 Q1 68% 18% 2.2% 9.5% 99% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 100%
2020 Q2 68% 19% 2.4% 9.5% 98% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 100%
2018 Q2 283,071 73,590 7,756 37,569 401,986 4,667 1 10 4,678 406,664
2018 Q3 282,554 74,891 7,353 36,032 400,830 4,591
2018 Q4 286,133 76,492 7,107 37,512 407,244 4,598
10 4,516 398,439
2018 Q1 279,108 72,726 8,064 37,447 397,345 4,437 2 10 4,449 401,794
11 4,602 405,432
2017 Q3 11.7% 6.2% -57.9% -11.5% 3.0% 56.6% 25.0% 56.5% 3.4%
2017 Q4 8.8% 2.4% -63.4% -14.6% 1.0% 43.2% 25.0% 43.2% 1.3%
2018 Q1 5.7% 3.6% -57.0% -6.2% 1.1% 30.4% 25.0% 30.5% 1.4%
2018 Q2 4.0% 4.1% -48.4% -4.4% 1.2% 16.5% 25.0% 16.5% 1.4%
2017 Q3 69% 18% 3.0% 9.2% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%
2017 Q4 70% 18% 2.1% 9.0% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%
2018 Q1 70% 18% 2.0% 9.3% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%
2018 Q2 70% 18% 1.9% 9.2% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 100%
12
Maintenance contracts - cars Despite variations in new registrations, maintenance contracts remained broadly similar to the preceding quarter. 66% of the Sample Group is maintained but the percentage of maintained new registrations in the quarter was again lower than in the total fleet (53%). The uptake of maintenance contracts therefore was lower than average during the quarter. 77% of the business fleet is maintained compared to just 27% of the consumer fleet. 98% of salary sacrifice cars are maintained. Personal contracts are much less likely to be maintained that business contracts (27% compared to 77%) with the only exception being salary sacrifice which is almost entirely maintained. CARS
Product Type
ALL
Maintained
Not maintained
TOTAL
Total maintained
New maintained
909,200
476,138
1,385,338
66%
53%
Business contract hire
Business
575,489
217,682
793,171
73%
68%
Finance lease
Business
11,504
14,769
26,273
44%
68%
Business other
Business
8,116
6,364
14,480
56%
79%
Fleet management only
Business
227,226
238
227,464
100%
100%
822,335
239,053
1,061,388
77%
71%
Business ALL Personal contract hire
Consumer
62,563
208,701
271,264
23%
24%
Salary sacrifice
Consumer
23,129
508
23,637
98%
89%
Personal other
Consumer
1,173
27,876
29,049
4%
57%
86,865
237,085
323,950
27%
26%
Consumer ALL
13
Maintenance contracts - vans 55% of the business fleet for vans is maintained compared to just 12% of the consumer fleet; and 62% of business contract hire compared to just 12% of personal contract hire.
Vans
Product Type
ALL
Maintained
Not maintained
TOTAL
Total maintained
New maintained
229,001
195,924
424,925
54%
51%
Business contract hire
Business
179,928
109,112
289,040
62%
62%
Business other
Business
2,877
75,838
78,715
4%
1%
Finance lease
Business
5,169
5,102
10,271
50%
35%
Fleet management only
Business
40,228
0
40,228
100%
100%
228,202
190,052
418,254
55%
75%
6,636
12%
35%
0%
0%
Business ALL Personal contract hire
Business
799
5,837
Salary sacrifice
Business
0
0
Personal other
Business
0
35
35
0%
0%
799
5,872
6,671
12%
35%
Consumer ALL
14
Regulated contracts - cars 28% of the total BVRLA car fleet is regulated with 95% of consumer contracts regulated and 7% of business contracts. Around one third of salary sacrifice contracts are regulated.
Regulated Cars ALL
Regulated
Not regulated
TOTAL
Total
New
382,572
1,002,766
1,385,338
28%
65%
64,334
728,837
793,171
8%
3%
Business contract hire
Business
Finance lease
Business
639
25,634
26,273
2%
0%
Business other
Business
6,863
7,617
14,480
47%
29%
Fleet management only
Business
3,639
223,825
227,464
2%
5%
75,475
985,913
1,061,388
7%
5%
Personal contract hire
Consumer
269,229
2,035
271,264
99%
100%
Salary sacrifice
Consumer
8,822
14,815
23,637
37%
35%
Business ALL
Personal other
Consumer Consumer ALL
29,046
3
29,049
100%
100%
307,097
16,853
323,950
95%
99%
15
Regulated contracts - vans LCVs are predominantly financed by businesses, and just 11% of contracts are regulated
Product Type
Regulated
Non regulated
2020 Q2
TOTAL
New
Business contract hire
Business
31,291
257,749
289,040
11%
6%
Finance lease
Business
8,077
70,638
78,715
10%
29%
Business other
Business
28
10,243
10,271
0.3%
0%
Fleet management only
Business
1,380
38,848
40,228
3.4%
0%
40,776
377,478
418,254
10%
6%
Regulated Vans
Business ALL Personal contract hire
Consumer
6,615
21
6,636
100%
73%
Salary sacrifice
Consumer
0
0
0
0%
0%
Personal other
Consumer
35
0
35
100%
0%
Consumer ALL
6,650
21
6,671
100%
73%
ALL
47,426
375,537
424,925
11%
6%
16
New versus used car finance Used car finance represents just 2.0% of the total BVRLA fleet, and 2.2% of new registrations. Used car sales are predominantly marketed to consumers. 6.3% of new registrations of consumer finance contracts are for used cars, compared to 0.8% for business finance contracts.
Used car market
Product Type
ALL
Used
New
2020 Q2
Total Used
New reg Used
34,320
1,351,018
1,385,338
2.0%
2.2%
4,571
788,600
793,171
0.6%
0.8%
Business contract hire
Business
Finance lease
Business
17
26,256
26,273
0.1%
0.1%
Business other
Business
3,367
11,113
14,480
23%
20%
Fleet management only
Business
6
227,458
227,464
0.0%
0.0%
7,961
1,053,608
1,061,388
0.8%
0.8%
Personal contract hire
Business ALL Consumer
5,056
266,208
271,264
1.9%
2.2%
Salary sacrifice
Consumer
219
23,418
23,637
0.9%
2.2%
Consumer
21,084
7,965
29,049
73%
82%
26,359
297,591
323,950
8.1%
6.3%
Personal other Consumer ALL
17
New versus used van finance Used van finance represents just 1.2% of the total BVRLA fleet. As a percentage of used car finance, personal contract hire for used vehicles is larger than for business contract hire, and growing (2.2% compared to 0.9%). Overall volumes of consumer contracts for used vans, remain a tiny part of the overall of the market however.
New versus used cars
Used
ALL
New
2020 Q2
Total Used
New Used
5,310
419,615
424,925
1.2%
7.0%
Business contract hire
Business
2,598
286,442
289,040
0.9%
8.8%
Finance lease
Business
700
78,015
78,715
0.9%
0.6%
Business other
Business
691
9,580
10,271
6.7%
74.0%
Fleet management only
Business
1,164
39,064
40,228
2.9%
0.1%
5,153
413,101
418,254
1.2%
7.0%
Personal contract hire
Business ALL Consumer
146
6,490
6,636
2.2%
7.1%
Salary sacrifice
Consumer
0
0
0
0%
0%
Personal other
Consumer
11
24
35
33%
31%
157
6,514
6,671
2.4%
7.1%
Consumer ALL
18
Contract mileage and duration Contract mileage for business cars are significantly higher than for consumer cars. The same effect is seen for LCVs – although the number of PCH LCVs is very low. There is little difference between the mean contract durations between business and consumer, but cars have shorter contracts (around 3 years) compared to LCVs (around 4 years).
Mileage (mile) Fleet Cars
LCVS
Duration (months)
New reg
Fleet
New reg
Business contract hire
51,300
46,200
38
35
Personal contract hire
26,200
24,700
37
35
Business contract hire
59,200
50,400
46
44
Personal contract hire
40,700
38,000
47
43
19
Profile of total car fleet fuel type The percentage of new registration petrol and diesel have declined year on year (-5.3% and -7.6% respectively). The percentage of new registration BEVs is up 4.6% and non plug-in hybrids is up 10%. Volumes for new registrations were low however, and trend figures need to be treated with caution.
CAR – FUEL TYPE
% % TOTAL* CHANGE NEW* CHANGE Y/Y Y/Y
BVRLA Leasing Total Fleet
BVRLA New Deliveries
PETROL
34%
+6.4%
46%
-5.3%
DIESEL
51%
-11%
34%
-7.6%
BEV
1.8%
1.2%
5.5%
+4.6%
52% 51%
PHEV
5.2%
-2.5%
3.4%
-0.1%
37% 34%
HEV
5.7%
MHEV
1.8%
FCEV
0.0%
34% 15% 12%
9.7% +5.8%
2.1%
46%
21%
10%
0.0%
Diesel Diesel
Petrol Petrol
Electric Electric
Diesel
Petrol
Electric
20
Profile of electric vehicles and hybrids
BVRLA Total Fleet Electric and Hybrids
5.7%
BVRLA new registrations electric and hybrids
5.5%
5.2%
3.4%
1.8% Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 BEV
PHEV
Non plug-in hybrids
12%
Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 BEV
PHEV
Non plug-in hybrids
21
Cars by fuel type and finance product Cars by Fuel Type Business contract hire Finance lease Business other Fleet management only Business ALL Personal contract hire Salary sacrifice Personal other Consumer ALL ALL
Petrol
Diesel 24% 38% 49% 33% 27% 58% 54% 56% 57% 34%
BEV 58% 48% 44% 50% 56% 38% 26% 39% 37% 51%
PHEV 2.1% 3.8% 1.6% 1.1% 1.9% 1.1% 5.9% 0.9% 1.4% 1.8%
HEV 7.2% 4.7% 2.1% 3.7% 6.3% 0.6% 12% 1.3% 1.5% 5.2%
MHEV 8.0% 5.9% 2.5% 2.5% 6.7% 2.7% 1.7% 0.7% 2.4% 5.7%
FCEV 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 2.4% 0.3% 1.8%
TOTAL 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
22
Profile of total car and LCVs by CO2 emissions Average CO2 emissions for BVRLA member new car registrations fell from 109g/km to 107g/km in 2020 quarter 2 and average CO2 emissions for the whole BVRLA car fleet dropped from 112.0g/km to 111.3 g/km. Similarly LCVs dropped slightly from 163.0 to 162.5 g/km. National average new registration emissions have not yet been released but have been estimated at 115 g/km. Average emissions for total fleet (g/km) 2020 Q2 BOTH* 2020 Q1 BOTH* 2019 Q4 BOTH* 2019 Q3 BOTH* 2019 Q2 BOTH* 2019 Q1 BOTH* 2018 Q4 BOTH* 2018 Q3 BOTH* 2018 Q2 BOTH* 2018 Q1 BOTH* 2017 Q4 BOTH* 2017 Q3 BOTH* 2017 Q2 BOTH* 2017 Q1 BOTH* 2016 Q4 NEDC 2016 Q3 NEDC 2016 Q2 NEDC 2016 Q1 NEDC 2015 Q4 NEDC 2015 Q3 NEDC 2015 Q2 NEDC 2015 Q1 NEDC 2014 Q4 NEDC 2014 Q3 NEDC
BVRLA
BVRLA
National Average
BVRLA
BVRLA
CARS fleet
CARS New registrations
CARS new registrations
LCVS fleet
LCVS New registrations
111.3 112.0 112.2 112.4 112.1 113.4 113.2 113.0 110.1 112.6 112.6 112.6 112.9 113.1 114.4 115.3 116.0 117.7 117.8 117.8 118.3 119.5 121.2 121.5
107.0 109.0 113.0 116.8 118.5 118.2 118.0 113.0 111.3 112.0 112.7 111.7 111.8 110.8 110.9 110.7 111.0 110.7 112.2 112.6 113.0 112.6 114.7 116.7
115.0 118.3 125.1 126.9 129.7 128.8 128.0 127.0 123.6 122.5 122.3 121.3 121.3 120.5 120.8 120.2 120.4 119.8 120.5 120.8 122.1 122.3 123.1 123.8
162.5 163.0 164.0 164.0 164.0 165.5 165.8 165.3 167.2 169.7 169.0 169.0 169.4 174.5 174.5
156.6 157.0 158.0 159.9 161.3 161.7 165.3 161.4 161.5 163.1 160.7 160.7 162.0 165.9 167.6
Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) was first introduced in Q3 2017. From Q4 2018 all new car registrations have been reporting emissions using WLTP only. The proportion of vehicles using NEDC in the BVRLA fleet will progressively decrease until the end of Q3 2019 after which all emissions will report using WLTP.
23
Profile of cars and LCVs by CO2 emissions Volumes of new registration during the quarter were low – and the effect of substantially lower CO2 emissions from new fleet had little effect on the overall fleet emissions. Notwithstanding this, there are clear indications from both the new registrations of BVRLA members and for the national average that the CO2 emission profile is reducing rapidly.
180
140
170
135
160
BVRLA LCVS Whole fleet
150
130 g/km
130 125
140 130 120 110
BVRLA LCVS New registrations
120
National Average CARS new registrations
110
BVRLA CARS New registrations
100
BVRLA CARS Whole fleet
100
Q4 2012 Q2 2013 Q4 2013 Q2 2014 Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Q4 2015 Q2 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q4 2017 Q2 2018 Q4 2018 Q2 2019 Q4 2019 Q2 2020
g/km
Car CO2 emissions by finance product
Time
115 105
108 g/km
95
96 g/km
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 BCH Whole PCH Whole
BCH Adds PCH Add
24
Business Confidence Indicators Confidence in the UK economy remains low and confidence in the fleet leasing sector deteriorated further – both at their lowest since 2013. Members were more positive about fleet sizes.
100% 50%
UK economy
Fleet leasing sector
100%
BVRLA
50%
CBI
0%
0%
-50%
-50%
-100%
-100%
Fleet size
Q2 2020
Q4 2019
Q2 2019
Q4 2018
Q2 2018
Q4 2017
Q2 2017
Q4 2016
Q2 2016
Q4 2015
Q2 2015
Q4 2014
Q2 2014
Q4 2013
100% 50% 0% -50% -100%
Confidence measures take the form of improve/stay the same/ diminish in relation to the next six months compared to current. Confidence is reported “on balance” ie the percentage quoted is the difference between the percentage of respondents who took the view and the percentage who held the opposing view. CBI confidence index taken c. one month after end of quarter.