BVRLA Quarterly Leasing Survey (2020 Q2) Full Report

Page 1

Quarter 2, 2020

The purpose of this survey is to provide a general market overview only. Although every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate, the BVRLA cannot accept any liability whatsoever for any inaccuracy contained within it, nor for any damage or loss, direct or indirect, which may be suffered as a result of any reliance placed upon the contents provided, whether arising in contract, tort or in any other way. Advice should always be obtained from your own professional advisers before committing to a specific action.


2

Key results 2020 quarter 2 The lockdown quarter The BVRLA Overall Fleet (OF) for cars and LCVs is 2,532,972. This is made up of 83% cars (2,105,429) and 17% LCVs (427,543). The OF has dropped by -1.2% (down 29,711) compared to the preceding quarter. These numbers include all cars and LCVs in the BVRLA fleet except PCP, daily rental & credit hire. Trading during quarter 2 was significantly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing lockdown. Lockdown was announced on 16th March 2020 and came fully into force on 23rd March, one week before the start of the quarter. The loosening of lockdown has been gradual, but significant dates include 10th May when people were permitted to leave their house more than once a day; and on 1st June when a number of non-essential retail including car dealerships were permitted to open, as the UK Government started to establish rules for doing business with reduced risk of infection. It can be assumed therefore that two of the three months in the quarter were directly impacted by Government imposed lockdown, and the third by the consequences of the full lockdown and by emerging new rules for doing business during the pandemic. Additionally the government intervened in the market to enforce forbearance and a halting of repossessions for consumers, and by providing other assistance to businesses including subsidised furloughing of staff, grants and provision of loans on preferential terms. These interventions may be expected to affect the fleet market along with any economic downturn in due course. The clear effect for quarter 2 however is a marked reduction in new registrations between 2020 quarter 2 and preceding quarters of between 30 and 33%. The relatively small drop in OF suggests that there was also a reduction in the number of vehicles de-fleeted during the quarter compared to preceding quarters. The industry in quarter 2 is therefore perhaps best characterized, based on the data, as having been locked-out during lockdown. Notwithstanding low levels of transactions during lockdown, important changes in fleet sales have continued. Uptake of BEVs has continued to increase – with market share of new registrations rising 4.6% year on year. This reflects changes in the retail auto market but not the magnitude - where sales of BEVs increased by 21% and 261% in May and June respectively. Non-plug-in hybrids increased by 10% year on year. Petrol and diesel sales continued to reduce by 5.3% and 7.5% year on year respectively.


3

Introduction and methodology Definition of groups Overall Fleet (OF)

2,532,972 2,105,429

Sample

427,543

A Sample Group (SG) of members are surveyed quarterly (light green left) to calculate a growth multiplier for each finance product and vehicle type which is used to calculate overall volumes for all members (and within a year for any members departing during the year) by finance product and vehicle type.

Group (SG)

Type

Reporting Group (RG)

YES

Business

YES

1,062,003

743,251

318,752

YES

Consumer

YES

298,264

291,734

6,530

NO

Business

YES

417,639

318,137

99,502

NO

Consumer

YES

32,357

32,216

141

NO

ALL

CAR

A new methodology has been used for the last three quarters.

LCV

Figures reported throughout the Quarterly Leasing Report are of a wider group called the Reporting Group (RG), and this includes members who are current at the start of the reporting year, provided they have been members for the preceding three years. Reported trends are therefore the result of market changes rather than changes in membership. Members included in the RG change once a year (and this happened this quarter). Their volumes are collected once per year in the annual membership census.

Business

NO

88,276

85,658

2,618

NO

Consumer

NO

20,433

20,433

0

The third group includes members who have joined within the last three years, and Motability which is excluded from the survey for other reasons.

NO

Consumer

Excluded

614,000

614,000

0

The SG accounted for 75% of the RG. The RG is 71% of the Overall Fleet (OF). The SG is not a true representative sample of the OF because it excludes captives, and it samples disproportionately more large fleets than small. Further work will be carried out to encourage more captives and small fleet providers into the SG.


4

Introduction and methodology Other changes to the Quarterly Leasing Survey are as follows:

Managing compliant publication of members’ data

First, we have removed the concept of risk fleet, focussing instead on consumer and business fleets which are dominated by PCH and BCH respectively. The large PCP fleets, mainly reported by manufacturer captives, are excluded. Salary sacrifice and ECOS are recorded as consumer; and salary sacrifice is reported separately to contract hire. Daily rental and credit hire continue to be excluded from the survey.

The BVRLA have agreed a number of safeguards around disclosure of members’ data. A summary of the rules is as follows:

Second, we have added a range of new measures including a more comprehensive look by contract type at the following: the number of maintained contracts; the number of contracts for new and used cars, and the number of contracts derived from different channels to market. Channels to market categories will require further work because the “Other” group is too large.

Second, data will be only be provided as aggregated totals derived from sufficient members that the performance of individual members is not revealed. In all cases the minimum necessary number of members will be five.

Third the fuel types have been adjusted to categories now in general use focussing on petrol and diesel, plug-in versus non-plug-in hybrids, and BEVs. The distinction between petrol and diesel hybrids has been dropped, and HEV, FCEV and MHEV has been adopted as sub-sets of non-plug-in hybrids.

A copy of the full data compliancy guidelines is available from Phil Garthside at the BVRLA.

These detailed measures are surveyed using the Sample Group but expressed in the proportions found, as volumes for the whole Reporting Group.

First, it has been agreed that the release of any market data from the fleet leasing survey will be withheld for a minimum of three months.

Third, processes for collection and processing of member data have been established to protect the confidentiality of members’ data.

September 2020


5

The BVRLA fleet The BVRLA Overall Fleet including cars and LCVs is 2,532,972 of which 83% are cars and 17% are LCVs. This figure excludes short term rental, credit hire, and PCP finance (the latter predominantly from manufacturer captives). The BVRLA Reporting Group fleet volumes are summarised below. The Reporting Group (RG) contains all members who have reported fleet sizes in all of the last three years. The RG has diminished – 3.6% year-on-year in 2020 Q2 (down – 67,056 to 1,810,263). This comprises a fall of – 5.2% in cars (down -75,740 to 1,385,338) and an increase of +2.1% in LCVs (up +8,684 to 424,925). Vehicle

2017 Q1

2017 Q2

2017 Q3

2017 Q4

2018 Q1

2018 Q2

2018 Q3

2018 Q4

2019 Q1

2019 Q2

2019 Q3

2019 Q4

2020 Q1

2020 Q2

ALL

1,852,049

1,876,361

1,890,590

1,917,054

1,904,337

1,894,286

1,893,953

1,896,308

1,877,413

1,877,319

1,867,880

1,858,650

1,840,079

1,810,263

CAR

1,455,696

1,475,161

1,491,456

1,518,615

1,502,543

1,487,622

1,488,521

1,484,455

1,463,857

1,461,078

1,451,803

1,442,061

1,417,851

1,385,338

LCV

396,353

401,200

399,134

398,439

401,794

406,664

405,432

411,853

413,556

416,241

416,077

416,589

422,228

424,925

% Y/Y

2017 Q1

2017 Q2

2017 Q3

2017 Q4

2018 Q1

2018 Q2

2018 Q3

2018 Q4

2019 Q1

2019 Q2

2019 Q3

2019 Q4

2020 Q1

2020 Q2

ALL

11%

9.3%

7.5%

5.0%

2.8%

1.0%

0.2%

-1.1%

-1.4%

-0.9%

-1.4%

-2.0%

-2.0%

-3.6%

CAR

12%

11%

8.7%

6.0%

3.2%

0.8%

-0.2%

-2.2%

-2.6%

-1.8%

-2.5%

-2.9%

-3.1%

-5.2%

LCV

3.9%

4.1%

3.4%

1.3%

1.4%

1.4%

1.6%

3.4%

2.9%

2.4%

2.6%

1.1%

2.1%

2.1%


6

BVRLA car fleet The BVRLA Overall Fleet for cars is 2,105,429 of which 54% is business fleet and 46% is consumer fleet. This figure excludes short term rental, credit hire, and PCP finance (the latter predominantly from manufacturer captives) and recognises Motability as a consumer finance product. The Reporting Group shrank in 2020 Q1 by -5.2% (down -75,740 to 1,385,338) continuing a trend of reduction which started in Q3 2018. Relatively small reductions in overall fleet size mask larger shifts in business and consumer fleets.

Year-on-year business fleet reduced in size by – 8.1% (-93,788 to 1,061,338) in 2020 Q1 the largest % drop over the period measured, but consumer fleet increased in size by +5.9% (+18,048 to 323,950). Cars by Product Type

2017 Q1

2017 Q2

2017 Q3

2017 Q4

2018 Q1

2018 Q2

2018 Q3

2018 Q4

2019 Q1

2019 Q2

2019 Q3

2019 Q4

2020 Q1

2020 Q2

ALL

1,455,696

1,475,161

1,491,456

1,518,615

1,502,543

1,487,622

1,488,521

1,484,455

1,463,857

1,461,078

1,451,803

1,442,061

1,417,851

1,385,338

BUSINESS

1,223,566

1,237,255

1,243,070

1,256,733

1,241,697

1,221,841

1,207,337

1,189,176

1,169,647

1,155,176

1,138,063

1,124,809

1,097,740

1,061,388

317,252

320,111

CONSUMER

% Y/Y

232,130

2017 Q1

237,906

2017 Q2

248,386

2017 Q3

261,882

2017 Q4

260,846

2018 Q1

265,781

2018 Q2

281,184

2018 Q3

295,279

2018 Q4

294,210

2019 Q1

305,902

2019 Q2

313,740

2019 Q3

2019 Q4

2020 Q1

323,950

2020 Q2

ALL

13%

11%

8.7%

6.0%

3.2%

0.8%

-0.2%

-2.2%

-2.6%

-1.8%

-2.5%

-2.9%

-3.1%

-5.2%

BUSINESS

9.2%

8.5%

6.3%

3.6%

1.5%

-1.2%

-2.9%

-5.4%

-5.8%

-5.5%

-5.7%

-5.4%

-6.1%

-8.1%

CONSUMER

33%

25%

22%

20%

12%

12%

13%

13%

13%

15%

12%

7.4%

% Cross ALL

2017 Q1

2017 Q2

2017 Q3

2017 Q4

2018 Q1

2018 Q2

2018 Q3

2018 Q4

2019 Q1

2019 Q2

2019 Q3

2019 Q4

8.8% 5.9% 2020 Q1 2020 Q2

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

BUSINESS

84%

84%

83.3%

83%

83%

82%

81%

80%

80%

79%

78%

78%

77%

77%

CONSUMER

16%

16%

17%

17%

17%

18%

19%

20%

20%

21%

22%

22%

23%

23%


7

BVRLA car market Business and consumer car fleet by quarter

Percentage growth in business and consumer car fleet 40.0%

1,600,000 1,500,000

30.0%

1,100,000 1,000,000

20.0%

600,000 500,000

10.0% 0.0%

BUSINESS

CONSUMER

Q2 2020 Q2 2020

Q1 2020 Q1 2020

Q4 2019 Q4 2019

Q3 2019 Q3 2019

Q2 2019 Q2 2019

Q1 2019 Q1 2019

Q4 2018 Q4 2018

2018 Q3 2018 Q3

2018 Q2 2018 Q2

2018 Q1 2018 Q1

2017 Q4 2017 Q4

2017 Q3 2017 Q3

2017 Q2 2017 Q2

-400,000

2017 Q1 2017 Q1

100,0000

-10.0%

20172017201720172018201820182018201920192019201920202020 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 BUSINESS

CONSUMER


8

BVRLA LCV fleet 430,000 440,000

The overall size of the BVRLA LCV fleet is 427,543 of which 98% is business fleet.

420,000 420,000 410,000

The Reporting Group ended 2020 Q2 totalling 424,925 (98% of the overall fleet), which increased in 2020 Q2 +2.1% (up +8,684 to 424,925).

400,000 390,000 380,000 380,000 360,000

Over the last two quarters there has been a marked increase in consumer financed LCVs up 41% (+1,923 to 6,671) in 2020 Q2. 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Business Q1 Q2 Q3Consumer Q4 Q1

Business

Product Type ALL

2017 Q1 396,353

BUSINESS CONSUMER % Y/Y

392,943 3,410 2017 Q1

2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Consumer

2017 Q2 401,200

397,185 4,015 2017 Q2

2017 Q3 399,134

394,686 4,448 2017 Q3

2017 Q4 398,439

393,923 4,516 2017 Q4

2018 Q1 401,794

397,345 4,449 2018 Q1

2018 Q2 406,664

401,986 4,678 2018 Q2

2018 Q3 405,432

400,830 4,602 2018 Q3

2018 Q4 411,853

407,244 4,609 2018 Q4

2019 Q1 413,556

408,850 4,706 2019 Q1

2019 Q2 416,241

411,502 4,739 2019 Q2

2019 Q3 416,077

411,254 4,823 2019 Q3

2019 Q4

2020 Q1

2020 Q2

416,589

422,228

424,925

411,881

416,292

418,254

4,708

5,936

2019 Q4

2020 Q1

6,671 2020 Q2

ALL

3.9%

4.1%

3.4%

1.3%

1.4%

1.4%

1.6%

3.4%

2.9%

2.4%

2.6%

1.1%

2.1%

2.1%

BUSINESS

3.6%

3.8%

3.0%

1.0%

1.1%

1.2%

1.6%

3.4%

2.9%

2.4%

2.6%

1.1%

1.8%

1.6%

CONSUMER

55%

57%

57%

43%

31%

17%

3.5%

2.1%

5.8%

1.3%

4.8%

2.1%

26%

% Cross

2017 Q1

2017 Q2

2017 Q3

2017 Q4

2018 Q1

2018 Q2

2018 Q3

2018 Q4

2019 Q1

2019 Q2

2019 Q3

2019 Q4

2020 Q1

41% 2020 Q2

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

BUSINESS

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

99%

98%

CONSUMER

0.9%

1.0%

1.1%

1.1%

1.1%

1.2%

1.1%

1.1%

1.1%

1.1%

1.2%

1.1%

1.4%

1.6%

ALL


9

BVRLA car market by finance product Year-on-year, business contract hire reduced by -9.7% (down -85,195 to 793,171), the lowest during the period measured. Personal contract hire increased by +5.7% (up 14,736 to 271,264). Finance Product Business contract hire Finance lease Business other Fleet management only BUSINESS ALL Personal contract hire Salary sacrifice Personal other CONSUMER ALL ALL

2017 Q1 941,477 29,921 17,148 235,020 1,223,566 165,663 32,600 33,867 232,130 1,455,696

2017 Q2 941,116 27,909 19,563 248,667 1,237,255 174,298 29,229 34,379 237,906 1,475,161

2017 Q3 929,962 29,256 19,775 264,077 1,243,070 180,641 33,436 34,309 248,386 1,491,456

2017 Q4 933,682 29,168 17,477 276,406 1,256,733 193,877 32,818 35,187 261,882 1,518,615

2018 Q1 927,051 27,078 17,304 270,264 1,241,697 200,346 32,999 27,501 260,846 1,502,543

2018 Q2 919,231 26,312 16,422 259,876 1,221,841 207,790 31,728 26,263 265,781 1,487,622

2018 Q3 913,563 25,993 16,172 251,609 1,207,337 226,812 29,067 25,305 281,184 1,488,521

2018 Q4 903,880 25,070 15,125 245,101 1,189,176 243,186 28,037 24,056 295,279 1,484,455

2019 Q1 889,471 24,888 16,192 239,096 1,169,647 250,260 26,761 17,189 294,210 1,463,857

2019 Q2 878,366 25,322 16,188 235,300 1,155,176 256,528 25,477 23,897 305,902 1,461,078

2019 Q3 863,500 25,582 14,770 234,211 1,138,063 265,854 23,973 23,913 313,740 1,451,803

2019 Q4 853,986 27,148 15,924 227,751 1,124,809 271,663 23,390 22,199 317,252 1,442,061

2020 Q1 829,861 26,430 15,634 225,815 1,097,740 272,377 24,128 23,606 320,111 1,417,851

2020 Q2 793,171 26,273 14,480 227,464 1,061,388 271,264 23,637 29,049 323,950 1,385,338

% Y/Y Business contract hire Finance lease Business other Fleet management only BUSINESS ALL Personal contract hire Salary sacrifice Personal other CONSUMER ALL ALL

2017 Q1 5.9% 6.6% 15% 24% 9.2% 45% 15.4% 6.7% 33% 12%

2017 Q2 4.6% 2.6% 12% 27% 8.5% 36% -0.8% 4.4% 25% 10.8%

2017 Q3 1.9% 3.5% 38% 24% 6.3% 30% 8.3% 2.8% 22% 8.7%

2017 Q4 -1.1% -2.4% 1% 25% 3.6% 27% 3.1% 2.8% 20% 6.0%

2018 Q1 -1.5% -9.5% 1% 15% 1.5% 21% 1.2% -19% 12% 3.2%

2018 Q2 -2.3% -5.7% -16.1% 4.5% -1.2% 19% 8.5% -24% 12% 0.8%

2018 Q3 -1.8% -11.2% -18.2% -4.7% -2.9% 26% -13% -26% 13% -0.2%

2018 Q4 -3.2% -14.0% -13.5% -11.3% -5.4% 25% -15% -32% 13% -2.2%

2019 Q1 -4.1% -8.1% -6.4% -11.5% -5.8% 25% -19% -38% 13% -2.6%

2019 Q2 -4.4% -3.8% -1.4% -9.5% -5.5% 24% -20% -9.0% 15% -1.8%

2019 Q3 -5.5% -1.6% -8.7% -6.9% -5.7% 17% -18% -5.5% 12% -2.5%

2019 Q4 -5.5% 8.3% 5.3% -7.1% -5.4% 12% -17% -7.7% 7.4% -2.9%

2020 Q1 -6.7% 6.2% -3.4% -5.6% -6.1% 8.8% -9.8% 37.3% 8.8% -3.1%

2020 Q2 -9.7% 3.8% -10.6% -3.3% -8.1% 5.7% -7.2% 21.6% 5.9% -5.2%

% Cross Business contract hire Finance lease Business other Fleet management only BUSINESS ALL Personal contract hire Salary sacrifice Personal other CONSUMER ALL ALL

2017 Q1 65% 2.1% 1.2% 16% 84% 11% 2.2% 2.3% 16% 100%

2017 Q2 64% 1.9% 1.3% 17% 84% 12% 2.0% 2.3% 16% 100%

2017 Q3 62% 2.0% 1.3% 18% 83% 12% 2.2% 2.3% 17% 100%

2017 Q4 62% 1.9% 1.2% 18% 83% 13% 2.2% 2.3% 17% 100%

2018 Q1 62% 1.8% 1.2% 18% 83% 13% 2.2% 1.8% 17% 100%

2018 Q2 62% 1.8% 1.1% 18% 82% 14% 2.1% 1.8% 18% 100%

2018 Q3 61% 1.7% 1.1% 17% 81% 15% 2.0% 1.7% 19% 100%

2018 Q4 61% 1.7% 1.0% 17% 80% 16% 1.9% 1.6% 20% 100%

2019 Q1 61% 1.7% 1.1% 16% 80% 17% 1.8% 1.2% 20% 100%

2019 Q2 60% 1.7% 1.1% 16% 79% 18% 1.7% 1.6% 21% 100%

2019 Q3 60% 1.8% 1.0% 16% 78% 18% 1.7% 1.6% 22% 100%

2019 Q4 59% 1.9% 1.1% 16% 78% 19% 1.6% 1.5% 22% 100%

2020 Q1 59% 1.9% 1.1% 16% 77% 19% 1.7% 1.7% 23% 100%

2020 Q2 57% 1.9% 1.0% 16% 77% 20% 1.7% 2.1% 23% 100%


Personal contract hire

8% 50% 30%

6% 45% 25%

4% 40%

2% 35%

0% 30%

-2% 25%

-4% 20%

-6% 15% 0%

-8% 10% -5%

-10% 5%

-10%

-12% 0%

-15%

2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2

Business contract hire

2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2

2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2

10

BVRLA fleet car market year-on-year growth business and personal contract hire, fleet management Fleet management only

20%

15%

10% 5%


11

BVRLA LCV market by finance product LCV market grew by 2% year on year – largely unchanged from the preceding quarter. Finance Product Business contract hire Finance lease Business other Fleet management only BUSINESS ALL Personal contract hire Salary sacrifice Consumer other CONSUMER ALL ALL

2017 Q1 264,093 70,170 18,741 39,939 392,943 3,402

2017 Q2 272,166 70,692 15,021 39,306 397,185 4,007

2017 Q3 274,610 71,428 12,044 36,604 394,686 4,438

2017 Q4 278,893 70,928 8,245 35,857 393,923 4,506

8 3,410 396,353

8 4,015 401,200

10 4,448 399,134

% Y/Y Business contract hire Finance lease Business other Fleet management only BUSINESS ALL Personal contract hire Personal other CONSUMER ALL ALL

2017 Q1 12.8% 11.5% -56.6% 1.7% 3.6% 55.3% 0.0% 55.1% 3.9%

2017 Q2 13.3% 8.8% -59.9% -2.2% 3.8% 57.1% 0.0% 56.9% 4.1%

% Cross Business contract hire Finance lease Business other Fleet management only BUSINESS ALL Personal contract hire Salary sacrifice Personal other CONSUMER ALL ALL

2017 Q1 67% 18% 4.7% 10% 99% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 100%

2017 Q2 68% 18% 3.7% 9.8% 99% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 100%

2019 Q2 286,862 77,932 7,415 39,293 411,502 4,706 1 32 4,739 416,241

2019 Q3 285,749 78,814 7,328 39,363 411,254 4,790

2019 Q4 286,292 79,538 7,706 38,345 411,881 4,674

2020 Q1 288,895 77,753 9,464 40,180 416,292 5,901

2020 Q2 289,040 78,715 10,271 40,228 418,254 6,636

11 4,609 411,853

2019 Q1 287,505 77,540 7,330 36,475 408,850 4,672 1 33 4,706 413,556

33 4,823 416,077

34 4,708 416,589

35 5,936 422,228

35 6,671 424,925

2018 Q3 2.9% 4.8% -38.9% -1.6% 1.6% 3.4% 10.0% 3.5% 1.6%

2018 Q4 2.6% 7.8% -13.8% 4.6% 3.4% 2.0% 10.0% 2.1% 3.4%

2019 Q1 3.0% 6.6% -9.1% -2.6% 2.9% 5.3% 230.0% 5.8% 2.9%

2019 Q2 1.3% 5.9% -4.4% 4.6% 2.4% 0.8% 220.0% 1.3% 2.4%

2019 Q3 1.1% 5.2% -0.3% 9.2% 2.6% 4.3% 200.0% 4.8% 2.6%

2019 Q4 0.1% 4.0% 8.4% 2.2% 1.1% 1.7% 209.1% 2.1% 1.1%

2020 Q1 0.5% 0.3% 29.1% 10.2% 1.8% 26.3% 6.1% 26.1% 2.1%

2020 Q2 0.8% 1.0% 38.5% 2.4% 1.6% 41.0% 9.4% 40.8% 2.1%

2018 Q3 70% 19% 1.8% 8.9% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%

2018 Q4 70% 19% 1.7% 9.1% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%

2019 Q1 70% 19% 1.8% 8.8% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%

2019 Q2 69% 19% 1.8% 9.4% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%

2019 Q3 69% 19% 1.8% 9.5% 99% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 100%

2019 Q4 69% 19% 1.8% 9.2% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%

2020 Q1 68% 18% 2.2% 9.5% 99% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 100%

2020 Q2 68% 19% 2.4% 9.5% 98% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 100%

2018 Q2 283,071 73,590 7,756 37,569 401,986 4,667 1 10 4,678 406,664

2018 Q3 282,554 74,891 7,353 36,032 400,830 4,591

2018 Q4 286,133 76,492 7,107 37,512 407,244 4,598

10 4,516 398,439

2018 Q1 279,108 72,726 8,064 37,447 397,345 4,437 2 10 4,449 401,794

11 4,602 405,432

2017 Q3 11.7% 6.2% -57.9% -11.5% 3.0% 56.6% 25.0% 56.5% 3.4%

2017 Q4 8.8% 2.4% -63.4% -14.6% 1.0% 43.2% 25.0% 43.2% 1.3%

2018 Q1 5.7% 3.6% -57.0% -6.2% 1.1% 30.4% 25.0% 30.5% 1.4%

2018 Q2 4.0% 4.1% -48.4% -4.4% 1.2% 16.5% 25.0% 16.5% 1.4%

2017 Q3 69% 18% 3.0% 9.2% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%

2017 Q4 70% 18% 2.1% 9.0% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%

2018 Q1 70% 18% 2.0% 9.3% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 100%

2018 Q2 70% 18% 1.9% 9.2% 99% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 100%


12

Maintenance contracts - cars Despite variations in new registrations, maintenance contracts remained broadly similar to the preceding quarter. 66% of the Sample Group is maintained but the percentage of maintained new registrations in the quarter was again lower than in the total fleet (53%). The uptake of maintenance contracts therefore was lower than average during the quarter. 77% of the business fleet is maintained compared to just 27% of the consumer fleet. 98% of salary sacrifice cars are maintained. Personal contracts are much less likely to be maintained that business contracts (27% compared to 77%) with the only exception being salary sacrifice which is almost entirely maintained. CARS

Product Type

ALL

Maintained

Not maintained

TOTAL

Total maintained

New maintained

909,200

476,138

1,385,338

66%

53%

Business contract hire

Business

575,489

217,682

793,171

73%

68%

Finance lease

Business

11,504

14,769

26,273

44%

68%

Business other

Business

8,116

6,364

14,480

56%

79%

Fleet management only

Business

227,226

238

227,464

100%

100%

822,335

239,053

1,061,388

77%

71%

Business ALL Personal contract hire

Consumer

62,563

208,701

271,264

23%

24%

Salary sacrifice

Consumer

23,129

508

23,637

98%

89%

Personal other

Consumer

1,173

27,876

29,049

4%

57%

86,865

237,085

323,950

27%

26%

Consumer ALL


13

Maintenance contracts - vans 55% of the business fleet for vans is maintained compared to just 12% of the consumer fleet; and 62% of business contract hire compared to just 12% of personal contract hire.

Vans

Product Type

ALL

Maintained

Not maintained

TOTAL

Total maintained

New maintained

229,001

195,924

424,925

54%

51%

Business contract hire

Business

179,928

109,112

289,040

62%

62%

Business other

Business

2,877

75,838

78,715

4%

1%

Finance lease

Business

5,169

5,102

10,271

50%

35%

Fleet management only

Business

40,228

0

40,228

100%

100%

228,202

190,052

418,254

55%

75%

6,636

12%

35%

0%

0%

Business ALL Personal contract hire

Business

799

5,837

Salary sacrifice

Business

0

0

Personal other

Business

0

35

35

0%

0%

799

5,872

6,671

12%

35%

Consumer ALL


14

Regulated contracts - cars 28% of the total BVRLA car fleet is regulated with 95% of consumer contracts regulated and 7% of business contracts. Around one third of salary sacrifice contracts are regulated.

Regulated Cars ALL

Regulated

Not regulated

TOTAL

Total

New

382,572

1,002,766

1,385,338

28%

65%

64,334

728,837

793,171

8%

3%

Business contract hire

Business

Finance lease

Business

639

25,634

26,273

2%

0%

Business other

Business

6,863

7,617

14,480

47%

29%

Fleet management only

Business

3,639

223,825

227,464

2%

5%

75,475

985,913

1,061,388

7%

5%

Personal contract hire

Consumer

269,229

2,035

271,264

99%

100%

Salary sacrifice

Consumer

8,822

14,815

23,637

37%

35%

Business ALL

Personal other

Consumer Consumer ALL

29,046

3

29,049

100%

100%

307,097

16,853

323,950

95%

99%


15

Regulated contracts - vans LCVs are predominantly financed by businesses, and just 11% of contracts are regulated

Product Type

Regulated

Non regulated

2020 Q2

TOTAL

New

Business contract hire

Business

31,291

257,749

289,040

11%

6%

Finance lease

Business

8,077

70,638

78,715

10%

29%

Business other

Business

28

10,243

10,271

0.3%

0%

Fleet management only

Business

1,380

38,848

40,228

3.4%

0%

40,776

377,478

418,254

10%

6%

Regulated Vans

Business ALL Personal contract hire

Consumer

6,615

21

6,636

100%

73%

Salary sacrifice

Consumer

0

0

0

0%

0%

Personal other

Consumer

35

0

35

100%

0%

Consumer ALL

6,650

21

6,671

100%

73%

ALL

47,426

375,537

424,925

11%

6%


16

New versus used car finance Used car finance represents just 2.0% of the total BVRLA fleet, and 2.2% of new registrations. Used car sales are predominantly marketed to consumers. 6.3% of new registrations of consumer finance contracts are for used cars, compared to 0.8% for business finance contracts.

Used car market

Product Type

ALL

Used

New

2020 Q2

Total Used

New reg Used

34,320

1,351,018

1,385,338

2.0%

2.2%

4,571

788,600

793,171

0.6%

0.8%

Business contract hire

Business

Finance lease

Business

17

26,256

26,273

0.1%

0.1%

Business other

Business

3,367

11,113

14,480

23%

20%

Fleet management only

Business

6

227,458

227,464

0.0%

0.0%

7,961

1,053,608

1,061,388

0.8%

0.8%

Personal contract hire

Business ALL Consumer

5,056

266,208

271,264

1.9%

2.2%

Salary sacrifice

Consumer

219

23,418

23,637

0.9%

2.2%

Consumer

21,084

7,965

29,049

73%

82%

26,359

297,591

323,950

8.1%

6.3%

Personal other Consumer ALL


17

New versus used van finance Used van finance represents just 1.2% of the total BVRLA fleet. As a percentage of used car finance, personal contract hire for used vehicles is larger than for business contract hire, and growing (2.2% compared to 0.9%). Overall volumes of consumer contracts for used vans, remain a tiny part of the overall of the market however.

New versus used cars

Used

ALL

New

2020 Q2

Total Used

New Used

5,310

419,615

424,925

1.2%

7.0%

Business contract hire

Business

2,598

286,442

289,040

0.9%

8.8%

Finance lease

Business

700

78,015

78,715

0.9%

0.6%

Business other

Business

691

9,580

10,271

6.7%

74.0%

Fleet management only

Business

1,164

39,064

40,228

2.9%

0.1%

5,153

413,101

418,254

1.2%

7.0%

Personal contract hire

Business ALL Consumer

146

6,490

6,636

2.2%

7.1%

Salary sacrifice

Consumer

0

0

0

0%

0%

Personal other

Consumer

11

24

35

33%

31%

157

6,514

6,671

2.4%

7.1%

Consumer ALL


18

Contract mileage and duration Contract mileage for business cars are significantly higher than for consumer cars. The same effect is seen for LCVs – although the number of PCH LCVs is very low. There is little difference between the mean contract durations between business and consumer, but cars have shorter contracts (around 3 years) compared to LCVs (around 4 years).

Mileage (mile) Fleet Cars

LCVS

Duration (months)

New reg

Fleet

New reg

Business contract hire

51,300

46,200

38

35

Personal contract hire

26,200

24,700

37

35

Business contract hire

59,200

50,400

46

44

Personal contract hire

40,700

38,000

47

43


19

Profile of total car fleet fuel type The percentage of new registration petrol and diesel have declined year on year (-5.3% and -7.6% respectively). The percentage of new registration BEVs is up 4.6% and non plug-in hybrids is up 10%. Volumes for new registrations were low however, and trend figures need to be treated with caution.

CAR – FUEL TYPE

% % TOTAL* CHANGE NEW* CHANGE Y/Y Y/Y

BVRLA Leasing Total Fleet

BVRLA New Deliveries

PETROL

34%

+6.4%

46%

-5.3%

DIESEL

51%

-11%

34%

-7.6%

BEV

1.8%

1.2%

5.5%

+4.6%

52% 51%

PHEV

5.2%

-2.5%

3.4%

-0.1%

37% 34%

HEV

5.7%

MHEV

1.8%

FCEV

0.0%

34% 15% 12%

9.7% +5.8%

2.1%

46%

21%

10%

0.0%

Diesel Diesel

Petrol Petrol

Electric Electric

Diesel

Petrol

Electric


20

Profile of electric vehicles and hybrids

BVRLA Total Fleet Electric and Hybrids

5.7%

BVRLA new registrations electric and hybrids

5.5%

5.2%

3.4%

1.8% Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 BEV

PHEV

Non plug-in hybrids

12%

Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 BEV

PHEV

Non plug-in hybrids


21

Cars by fuel type and finance product Cars by Fuel Type Business contract hire Finance lease Business other Fleet management only Business ALL Personal contract hire Salary sacrifice Personal other Consumer ALL ALL

Petrol

Diesel 24% 38% 49% 33% 27% 58% 54% 56% 57% 34%

BEV 58% 48% 44% 50% 56% 38% 26% 39% 37% 51%

PHEV 2.1% 3.8% 1.6% 1.1% 1.9% 1.1% 5.9% 0.9% 1.4% 1.8%

HEV 7.2% 4.7% 2.1% 3.7% 6.3% 0.6% 12% 1.3% 1.5% 5.2%

MHEV 8.0% 5.9% 2.5% 2.5% 6.7% 2.7% 1.7% 0.7% 2.4% 5.7%

FCEV 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 2.4% 0.3% 1.8%

TOTAL 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


22

Profile of total car and LCVs by CO2 emissions Average CO2 emissions for BVRLA member new car registrations fell from 109g/km to 107g/km in 2020 quarter 2 and average CO2 emissions for the whole BVRLA car fleet dropped from 112.0g/km to 111.3 g/km. Similarly LCVs dropped slightly from 163.0 to 162.5 g/km. National average new registration emissions have not yet been released but have been estimated at 115 g/km. Average emissions for total fleet (g/km) 2020 Q2 BOTH* 2020 Q1 BOTH* 2019 Q4 BOTH* 2019 Q3 BOTH* 2019 Q2 BOTH* 2019 Q1 BOTH* 2018 Q4 BOTH* 2018 Q3 BOTH* 2018 Q2 BOTH* 2018 Q1 BOTH* 2017 Q4 BOTH* 2017 Q3 BOTH* 2017 Q2 BOTH* 2017 Q1 BOTH* 2016 Q4 NEDC 2016 Q3 NEDC 2016 Q2 NEDC 2016 Q1 NEDC 2015 Q4 NEDC 2015 Q3 NEDC 2015 Q2 NEDC 2015 Q1 NEDC 2014 Q4 NEDC 2014 Q3 NEDC

BVRLA

BVRLA

National Average

BVRLA

BVRLA

CARS fleet

CARS New registrations

CARS new registrations

LCVS fleet

LCVS New registrations

111.3 112.0 112.2 112.4 112.1 113.4 113.2 113.0 110.1 112.6 112.6 112.6 112.9 113.1 114.4 115.3 116.0 117.7 117.8 117.8 118.3 119.5 121.2 121.5

107.0 109.0 113.0 116.8 118.5 118.2 118.0 113.0 111.3 112.0 112.7 111.7 111.8 110.8 110.9 110.7 111.0 110.7 112.2 112.6 113.0 112.6 114.7 116.7

115.0 118.3 125.1 126.9 129.7 128.8 128.0 127.0 123.6 122.5 122.3 121.3 121.3 120.5 120.8 120.2 120.4 119.8 120.5 120.8 122.1 122.3 123.1 123.8

162.5 163.0 164.0 164.0 164.0 165.5 165.8 165.3 167.2 169.7 169.0 169.0 169.4 174.5 174.5

156.6 157.0 158.0 159.9 161.3 161.7 165.3 161.4 161.5 163.1 160.7 160.7 162.0 165.9 167.6

Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) was first introduced in Q3 2017. From Q4 2018 all new car registrations have been reporting emissions using WLTP only. The proportion of vehicles using NEDC in the BVRLA fleet will progressively decrease until the end of Q3 2019 after which all emissions will report using WLTP.


23

Profile of cars and LCVs by CO2 emissions Volumes of new registration during the quarter were low – and the effect of substantially lower CO2 emissions from new fleet had little effect on the overall fleet emissions. Notwithstanding this, there are clear indications from both the new registrations of BVRLA members and for the national average that the CO2 emission profile is reducing rapidly.

180

140

170

135

160

BVRLA LCVS Whole fleet

150

130 g/km

130 125

140 130 120 110

BVRLA LCVS New registrations

120

National Average CARS new registrations

110

BVRLA CARS New registrations

100

BVRLA CARS Whole fleet

100

Q4 2012 Q2 2013 Q4 2013 Q2 2014 Q4 2014 Q2 2015 Q4 2015 Q2 2016 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q4 2017 Q2 2018 Q4 2018 Q2 2019 Q4 2019 Q2 2020

g/km

Car CO2 emissions by finance product

Time

115 105

108 g/km

95

96 g/km

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 BCH Whole PCH Whole

BCH Adds PCH Add


24

Business Confidence Indicators Confidence in the UK economy remains low and confidence in the fleet leasing sector deteriorated further – both at their lowest since 2013. Members were more positive about fleet sizes.

100% 50%

UK economy

Fleet leasing sector

100%

BVRLA

50%

CBI

0%

0%

-50%

-50%

-100%

-100%

Fleet size

Q2 2020

Q4 2019

Q2 2019

Q4 2018

Q2 2018

Q4 2017

Q2 2017

Q4 2016

Q2 2016

Q4 2015

Q2 2015

Q4 2014

Q2 2014

Q4 2013

100% 50% 0% -50% -100%

Confidence measures take the form of improve/stay the same/ diminish in relation to the next six months compared to current. Confidence is reported “on balance” ie the percentage quoted is the difference between the percentage of respondents who took the view and the percentage who held the opposing view. CBI confidence index taken c. one month after end of quarter.


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