In it for the long haul?

The C21 Content Trends Report, a quarterly outline of the biggest trends in the business, continues with the latest on the US writers’ strike, as film sets and writers’ rooms close while fears grow the stoppage could last longer than initially expected. By Jordan Pinto as the writers and studios attempt to navigate the early stages of the strike. For WGA writers, a strike means they cannot pitch new shows or promote their in-development work at industry events or panels. The first industry event impacted by the strike was SeriesFest in Denver in early May, with several showrunners and studio execs pulling out of scheduled appearances. It continued later in the month with the Upfronts, C21’s Content LA and the Cannes Film Festival and the disruption will no doubt continue for the duration of the strike.

Given the strike is still in its infancy, the studios are, for the most part, taking a wait-and-see approach. The AMPTP has been conspicuously quiet throughout, save for a couple of brief statements. However, the organisation might be wise to maintain a low profile given it is also negotiating with the Directors Guild of America (DGA) and preparing to begin talks on June 7 with actors’ union SAG-AFTRA. Both those deals expire on June 30.

Despite the fact a long, drawn-out strike looks likely, the studios are currently assessing the playing field before plotting their next moves, says Wattpad Webtoon Studios head of global entertainment David Madden, who has previously held top posts at Berlanti Productions, AMC Networks and at Fox on both the studio and network side.

“Right now, the strike is still too raw in people’s brains. Most buyers are still in a ‘work out what we’re going to do next’ phase,” he says. “If this is a long strike, buyers will be more and more anxious to find material that they can acquire and work on. But I don’t think we’re there yet, and people are not quite in the headspace.”

Studio chiefs including Netflix coCEO Ted Sarandos and Paramount Global CEO Bob Bakish have insisted they have plenty of finished content to sustain themselves through a protracted strike.

In May, Bakish claimed Paramount Global has “a lot of content in the can” and highlighted the company’s international production capabilities.

“Obviously we’ve been planning for this. We do have many levers to pull, and that will allow us to manage

David Madden, head of global entertainment, Wattpad Webtoon Studios

Right now, the strike is still too raw in people’s brains. Most buyers are still in a ‘work out what we’re going to do next’ phase. If this is a long strike, buyers will be more and more anxious to find material that they can acquire and work on. But I don’t think we’re there yet, and people are not quite in the headspace.

Bob Bakish, CEO, Paramount Global Obviously we’ve been planning for this. We do have many levers to pull and that will allow us to manage through the strike, even through the strike, even if it’s for an extended duration,” he said. “With the exception of things like late-night, consumers really won’t notice anything for a while.”

In terms of the cost of the strike to the studios, credit ratings agency Moody’s estimated the US studios are if it’s for an extended duration. With the exception of things like latenight, consumers really won’t notice anything for a while.

Julie Pizzi, president, Bunim/ Murray Productions

If you go back to the last strike, there were far fewer unscripted shows in the marketplace, so it was an opportunity to lean into that. Now, there’s as much unscripted as there is scripted, so I don’t really see that the writers’ strike will create a surge of unscripted.

Mary Ann Halford, partner at consultancy firm Altman Solon

During the 2007 writers’ strike, there was a lot of ingenuity that came likely to face annual cost increases of between US$250m and US$350m once a new deal has been signed with the WGA.

Other unions such as SAG-AFTRA and the DGA will also achieve improved deals, Moody’s estimated, meaning the US studios will pay out of unscripted programming. Perhaps we’ll see some new things that will come out of this era, so I would expect a few surprises over the next six to eight months. Somebody is going to strike some kind of format that’s going to resonate with audiences.

Ted Sarandos,

co-CEO, Netflix

We have a large base of upcoming shows and films from around the world. We could probably serve our members better than most. We really don’t want this to happen, but we have to make plans for the worst, and so we do have a pretty robust slate of releases.

US$450m-$600m more annually once the current round of negotiations concludes. The report added that some of the increased costs are “likely to be passed on to buyers.”

One important difference between this strike and the 2007/08 stoppage is that most producers are not expecting an uptick in unscripted content commissioning.

“If you go back to the last strike, there were far fewer unscripted shows in the marketplace, so it was an opportunity to lean into that. Now, I think there’s as much unscripted as there is scripted, so I don’t really see that the writers’ strike will create a surge of unscripted,” says Julie Pizzi, president of LA-based unscripted outfit Bunim/Murray Productions (BMP).

Pizzi adds that she has not seen anything from buyers that would suggest a boom is on its way for the US unscripted sector. “BMP, as an individual production studio, produced over 100 hours in 2022 into 2023 that has not yet aired. If you multiply that by all the production companies, there’s probably quite a bit of content that has yet to air,” she says.

That is doubly true on the scripted side, and one key element of the strike will be the degree to which the studios can eek out their finished content before consumers begin to notice that the pipelines are frozen.

Based on the mood in LA and New York, the WGA seems determined to test the AMPTP’s resolve, which could extend this strike into the fall and perhaps beyond.

No sooner has Bill Gates declared artificial intelligence “as fundamental as the creation of the microprocessor, the personal computer, the Internet and the mobile phone” than Elon Musk calls for a six-month moratorium on development of the technology.

Sour grapes from the Tesla and SpaceX boss perhaps, watching as Microsoft’s share price spiked following its recent US$10bn investment in ChatGPT creator OpenAI, which Musk co-founded in 2015 alongside CEO Sam Altman but is now no longer involved with.

But the outgoing ‘Chief Twit’ was not alone in warning of an ‘out-of-control’ AI race threatening the future of humanity, with other signatories of an open letter including Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak.

All the chat these past few months has been about AI and the impact it will have on all aspects of our lives, with a report from Goldman Sachs in March claiming it will affect 300 million jobs worldwide. The creative industries are among those at the sharp end.

AI is already being used by a company called Genius Brands International to create children’s TV shows, while an AI-generated spoof of Seinfeld has grabbed headlines, and simulated Wes Anderson-directed Star Wars, Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings trailers have also surfaced.

Such has been the momentum behind AI it is a key issue in the US writers’ strike, with scribes and the union representing them fearing for the future of their craft, with machines now more than capable of drafting entire scripts.

Among the Writers Guild of America (WGA)’s demands is that studios and streamers “regulate use of material produced using artificial intelligence or similar technologies.” Protestors even flew a light aircraft over Los Angeles trailing a banner that read: “Pay the writers, you AI-holes.”

The debate around the impact of artificial intelligence on everyday life has intensified as software like ChatGPT has gone viral. But the technology is also central to the US writers’ strike, the future of the TV industry and maybe much more.

The arguments are complex and subtle. While the WGA is not opposed to writers making use of AI software to help them devise or hone material, it is eager to guarantee they still receive full artistic credit and their fair share of the associated residuals.

On the other side of the negotiating table, the studios and streamers – represented by the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) – acknowledge that “AI raises hard, important creative and legal questions for everyone.”

But the organisation notes that “writers want to be able to use this technology as part of their creative process, without changing how credits are determined, which is complicated, given AI material can’t be copyrighted. So it’s something that requires a lot more discussion.”

Some doomsayers have warned a future ‘Godlike AI’ could destroy humans or make us obsolete and even the so-called ‘godfather of AI,’ Geoffrey Hinton, quit his job at Google recently so he could talk freely about the dangers of the technology.

Within the TV industry, the debate is already highly existential, with the AMPTP pointing out its previous (though now expired) agreement with the WGA specifies a writer as a “person,” meaning that “AI-generated material would not be eligible for writing credit.”

Things get even deeper when it comes to AIsimulated actors’ performances. Movie stars have few complaints when it comes to the now common practice of using AI to magically de-age them on-screen, but an outright appropriation of

By Jonathan Webdale

their physical form – and without returning them financial reward – is simply a bridge too far.

“Anybody can now recreate themselves at any age they are by way of AI or deep-fake technology,”

Tom Hanks told the Adam Buxton Podcast recently. “I could be hit by a bus tomorrow and that’s it, but my performances can go on and on and on.”

Hence, AI will be a key sticking point also in contract renewal talks between the national board of US actors’ union SAG-AFTRA and the AMPTP, which take place this summer. “The terms and conditions involving rights to digitally simulate a performer to create new performances must be bargained with the union,” the union has already said in a statement.

Meanwhile, fellow labour rights syndicate IATSE, which represents production crew, has launched its own working group to examine AI’s potential impact for its members.

Elsewhere, directors and filmmakers including Steven Spielberg, Seth Rogen and Joe Russo have all sounded off about the technology in the past few months, with the latter suggesting it may be only a couple of years before AI is capable of creating movies.

TV execs at the highest level have also been forced to weigh in on the subject, with Disney CEO Bob Iger saying on the company’s latest earnings call that while he foresees plenty of disruption, he is “bullish overall about the prospects for efficiencies.”

While the Mouse House head honcho was referring to AI as a means of getting closer to consumers, some have suggested the writers’ strike may ironically strengthen the use case for studios investing in the tech. ChatGPT will, after all, never ‘put down its pen’ or pause its generative algorithms unless it is told to do so – until the day it decides to disregard our instructions, of course.