Collision course

“They’ve tricked us into thinking we can’t do it without them, but the truth is they cannot do anything of value without us,” proclaimed Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, Being John Malkovich and I’m Thinking of Ending Things screenwriter Charlie Kaufman to rapturous applause at the Writers Guild of America (WGA) Awards in March.

His comments, directed at Hollywood studio execs, were made as tensions reached boiling point between US scribes, who are represented by the WGA, and US studios, under the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP).

The two sides have been on a collision course for several years, with the writing community feeling the streaming boom has diminished their importance in the creation of TV and film and significantly decreased their earnings potential.

The current contract between the WGA and AMPTP expires on May 1 and negotiations have been ongoing since March 20. Several outcomes are still possible – C21 has heard predictions ranging from a May-September strike, to a four-week strike, to no strike at all – but what’s clear is, at the time of going to press, many in Hollywood believe the US industry is headed for its first writers’ action since 2007-2008, when WGA members walked off the job for 100 days.

Highlights of the ‘pattern of demands’ issued by the WGA in March included a compensation increase to “address the devaluation of writing in all areas” of television, new media and features; expanded “span protection,” so that TV writers are not locked into lengthy contracts that prohibit them from taking other jobs; and a call to “address the abuses of mini-rooms.”

The latter – a practice that sees a small number of writers working with a showrunner or head writer to map out the story ahead of a greenlight decision – has become a focal issue as it has resulted in fewer writers being employed on projects.

In addition, the new world of short-order seasons (the average drama now has between six and 12 episodes per season, compared with 22 in the prestreaming era) has meant a writer often needs to line up two or more jobs per year in order to make a solid wage. At the same time, residual payments –which in the network TV era provided writers with a healthy revenue stream – are a fraction of that in the streaming era.

The potential strike would take place against a very different backdrop to the previous one, however.

Many execs C21 has heard from have pointed out the studios and streamers are better positioned to ride out a long strike this time around, should the situation arise. However, each buyer has different needs and priorities, meaning there is no one-sizefits-all response. For example, streamers like Netflix and Apple are set up to buy internationally, with hits Ted Lasso already being filmed in the UK, while others, such as Disney-owned SVoD service Hulu and broadcast network Fox, are US- ts-all response For e such as You and T in the Disne and bro only.

In addition to stockpiling scripts, US buyers have started tentatively implementing “strike-proofing” measures. Multiple producers, showrunners, add entertainment lawyers, managers and agents have told C21 they have seen the major US commissioners lining up contingency options in the UK and Canada.

“We have seen explicit outreach and interest from US studios specifically interested in engaging with writers who are not with the WGA and could help them prevent a stoppage in their output,” says one US-based exec at a management firm with ties to the UK and US.

One US talent agent says the fact studios and streamers can commission international content, something that wasn’t a factor in 2007, means they are less reliant on American writers than they were previously.

“The Europeans – especially UK writers –Canadians and Australians probably see their value increasing dramatically if there’s an American writers’ strike,” says the agent.

Of course, many high-profile UK and Canadian writers/showrunners are WGA members, meaning they would also be part of the strike. That wouldn’t prevent some of the studios from commissioning international projects as a means of avoiding the challenges created by a strike.

“I bet the Brits will come here and meet with the studios. And maybe the showrunner goes back to England and Netflix buys the show there and it’s the same damn show,” adds the agent. “If I’m Netflix UK, do I buy a few extra shows? Probably.”

The fact studios and streamers are, regardless of a strike, looking to reduce their content slates is an important consideration. Some have even suggested the studios would welcome a short strike, as they are already reducing content-related spending and it would enable them to cancel various talent deals.

“If you look at the major media companies and streamers, two to three years ago they were making ginormous overhead deals for writers – you’re talking about US$5m- to US$10m-a-year deals. Today, the money involved in those deals is probably half to one-third of what it was two years ago,” says the head of one global independent studio.

“Everyone has a lot of those deals, and in a lot of cases they can be cancelled in the event of the strike – outright cancelled. So one theory is that the best thing for many major media companies might be a short strike.”

The potential for a strike is also creating interesting dynamics in the Canadian marketplace. C21 has heard that several Canadian writers, directors and creators who live and work in LA are eyeing a return to Canada and attempting to line up projects with local broadcasters in the event of a strike.

In the first week of negotiations in late March, the word trickling out was that the WGA and AMPTP weren’t as far apart on certain key issues as previously supposed. However, it now appears very little negotiating will take place until closer to the deadline, as the WGA believes that will give it the greatest amount of leverage.

If the WGA and AMPTP are unable to iron out a new deal before May 1, the question becomes how long the strike will last. The consensus is that if it is relatively short, the programming pipelines of networks and streamers will not be too badly disrupted.

However, if the strike goes longer, the studios and streamers will be forced to either meet the writers’ demands – which they are loathe to do due to the shakiness of their financial positions – or find other ways to fill their content pipelines, likely by commissioning unscripted programming, which isn’t covered by WGA contracts, and buying international content.

In many ways, Kaufman’s declaration will be put to the test in the coming weeks and months. He may be correct in saying that the US studios cannot do anything of value without US writers. However, given that the studios have more access than ever to international talent, they might be in a stronger position to prevent their content pipelines from freezing.

Charlie Kaufman

They’ve tricked us into thinking we can’t do it without them, but the truth is they cannot do anything of value without us.

WGA’s pattern of demands, with negotiations being led by lead negotiator Ellen Stutzman

Increase minimum compensation significantly to address the devaluation of writing in all areas of television, new media and features. Address the abuses of minirooms. Ensure appropriate television series writing compensation throughout the entire process of pre-production, production and post-production.

Louise Pedersen, CEO, All3Media International

It certainly felt like a lot of US buyers were planning for the strike at the London Screenings. They were considering acquiring shows from the UK, so I suspect they’re doing a bit of research to put their back-up lists together.

Jens Richter, CEO, International, Fremantle

We’ve discussed this scenario internally and we want to be prepared if the strike goes ahead. If you have shows that could be licensed into America, you have to think about which content to take to certain platforms. Timing is also important – is now the right time to go into that market, or should we wait a few weeks?

Source, agent

The Europeans – especially UK writers –Canadians and Australians probably see their value increasing dramatically if there’s an American writers’ strike.

Source, head of independent studio

[The studios and streamers have] a lot of those [large overall] deals, and in a lot of cases they can be cancelled in the event of the strike –outright cancelled. So one theory is that the best thing for many major media companies might be a short strike.

Frank Spotnitz, founder and CEO, Big Light Productions

I’m hoping and praying there won’t be a writers’ strike, as it is such a brutal and damaging way to resolve conflict. Ultimately, everyone loses when a writers’ strike happens. I will obviously support whatever decision is made by the Writers Guild, but I really hope the strike doesn’t happen.

Executives at The Walt Disney Company (TWDC) and subsidiary Lucasfilm may have felt a disturbance in the Force recently when Jedi master Qui-Gon Jinn (or at least the actor who played him) complained that the Star Wars franchise was being spoiled by too many spin-offs.

Liam Neeson, who was in the cast of the first movie prequels extending the original trilogy, said in an interview in February that despite a cameo in last year’s Disney+ series Obi-Wan Kenobi, reuniting him with The Phantom Menace lead Ewan McGregor, he had no interest in doing more. “There’s so many spin-offs of Star Wars. It’s diluting it to me, and it’s taken away the mystery and the magic in a weird way,” Neeson told a US talkshow.

But this particular Jedi’s opinions are a distant nebula in a galaxy far, far away as the Star Wars ‘universe’ – to borrow a term from TWDC sibling Marvel and now synonymous with the art of franchise management – continues to expand. The Mandalorian, The Book of Boba Fett, Andor, Ashoka and The Acolyte are just some of the serialised properties to come out of Disney’s US$4bn purchase of Lucasfilm a decade ago.

But this is a mere handful compared with the number of titles to emerge from the Mouse House’s acquisition of Marvel for the same amount three years earlier. Since the 2010 release of Iron Man, the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) has grown to more than 40 movies and TV series – the latter category gaining momentum with the 2019 launch of Disney+, spawning the likes of Loki, The Falcon & the Winter Soldier and WandaVision (now gaining its own spin-offs).

The picture is the same at Warner Bros Discovery (WBD), where the US$43bn merger that created the company last year has heaped pressure on the DC Universe (DCU), including Batman, Superman, Wonder Woman and Aquaman, plus associated Greg Berlantibirthed Arrowverse, of Arrow, The Flash, Supergirl, et al, to emulate MCU’s success. New DC Studios chiefs James Gunn