Flipping the script

US writers could strike if issues over streaming-era payment models are not addressed. But their position is potentially precarious as the studios and streamers have never had such broad access to international writing talent and coproduction partners.

By Jordan Pinto

Of all the storm clouds that have gathered above the US content business over the past 12 months, perhaps the biggest is the looming showdown between television writers and Hollywood studios that could lead to the first writers’ strike in 15 years.

Tensions between the Writers Guild of America (WGA) and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP), which represents the major studios, have simmered over the past year. But as the clock ticks down to May 1 – the day the WGA’s Minimum Basic Agreement with the studios expires – it is becoming increasingly clear that US TV scribes are getting ready to make a big noise about streaming-era economic models that they say do not compensate them fairly.

In the pre-streaming era, writers could get staffed on 22-episode-per-season network shows that would provide their annual income, in addition to healthy residuals. However, in a streaming era when short-order seasons –typically anything from six to 10 episodes – have become the norm, a writer often needs to line up two or more jobs per year in order to make a solid wage, and the residual payments are a fraction of what they are in the network TV model.

Outside of economic factors, seeds of distrust have been sown over the past 12 months, especially with the recent trend for networks and studios to cancel shows en masse, often by reversing greenlight decisions.

Warner Bros Discovery (WBD), which officially formed in April 2022 following the merger of Discovery and WarnerMedia, set the tone for the year with deep, sweeping cuts that saw shows and movies canned (most notably the Batgirl film), entire development slates axed, projects ‘un-renewed’ and titles including dystopian sci-fi Westworld removed from its streamer, HBO Max. Other companies have followed suit, among them AMC Networks, which scrapped shows such as 61st Street, starring Courtney B Vance, and sci-fi drama Moonhaven as part of a US$400m content write-down.

Against this chaotic backdrop, whispers of the first writers’ strike since 2007 have gradually grown louder.

Lasting 100 days, the previous strike in many ways altered the course of television history. The stakes are no less high this time around, although given the global nature of today’s content business, the context for a writer/studio dispute is greatly changed.

Throw on top the fact that the Directors Guild of America and SAG-AFTRA’s respective contracts with AMPTP are set to expire on June 30 and the stage is set for bedlam if negotiations hit roadblocks.

Indeed, it was telling that when asked at C21’s Content London event in late 2022 about the biggest challenges of the year ahead, Warner Bros Television (WBTV) chairman Channing Dungey zeroed in on the potential writers’ strike.

“The writers’ strike is a real threat; that is something we’re planning for and trying to be prepared for. I would love to see us avoid a strike. I think there are some very real issues that need to be resolved and if we can try to find a way to resolve them peacefully in advance of a strike, that would be tremendous,” she said.

The WGA is concerned both about the finer details and the bigger pictures as it approaches this round of negotiations.

On the one hand, most members feel the writer payment model needs to be fundamentally realigned for the streaming era (the traditional network model, it should be noted, continues to compensate writers well). There are a handful of writers who have lucrative deals with studios, but they are very much in the minority.

In a broader sense, the WGA has for years been sounding the alarm on the negative consequences of media consolidation and calling for stronger antitrust enforcement. The WBD merger, which resulted in the axing of dozens of shows involving WGA members, was the latest in a string of mega deals that the union feels has concentrated market share and power in the hands of a select few companies.

Moves such as WBD pulling shows from HBO Max in order to avoid residual payments and companies reversing renewal decisions have left a sour taste in the mouths of many, with one WGA source telling C21 “it’s hard to feel good about new projects” in an environment where shows are being axed so ruthlessly.

Many TV scribes also feel the studios are pushing a false narrative that strikes are futile and create loselose outcomes. As one source points out, some of the contractual guarantees that WGA members care about most – like health and pension benefits, and residuals – were won because of strikes. “Strikes don’t happen because people are reckless, they happen because people feel pushed into the corner. I feel like that gets lost in a lot of coverage,” says the source.

Frank Spotnitz Big Light

But writers aren’t the only ones feeling the pinch. After a brutal year that saw media stocks decimated, many studios and streamers find themselves in precarious economic circumstances, making it probable they will be ready to play hardball when WGA-AMPTP negotiations begin.

One key facet in this round of negotiations that didn’t exist 15 years ago is that all the major studios now have relationships with top-tier international writers.

Speaking on background, one top US talent agent tells C21 a work stoppage would mean lost opportunities and pay cheques for American writers – at a time when the streamers have scripts banked and more connections with international writers than ever before.

“Having seen the 2007 strike, I can tell you that the studios figured out how to replace people. They do want the big writers to write, because no one is better than Americans at putting on TV shows. But guess what’s happened in the last 15 years: there are many foreigners who are now just as good at putting on shows,” says the agent.

“The UK writers are just as good as Americans. I would say the Canadians are as well, to a point – there’s just not as many of them. I would even go so far to argue that English-speaking French, Spanish and South Korean [showrunners] are just as capable of putting on a show.

“These companies are all set up to hear pitches and buy foreign projects. Netflix is all set up, Apple is all set up. They buy from these countries anyway. They’re perfectly equipped to make some phone calls and buy some shows.

It was an issue for them in 2007 because people didn’t do that, and the streamers weren’t prolific back then – but now they can do whatever they want.”

The situation in the US is being keenly observed overseas, with European producers anticipating that, should a strike transpire, it will lead to additional business. “It could represent a massive potential upside for European producers and conversations have already started with partners in preparation for this,” says Richard Tulk-Hart, co-CEO of London-based Buccaneer Media.

The 2007 writers’ strike was a pivotal event in modern television history, not least because it helped propel the non-scripted sector to new heights as studios and networks looked for ways to fill their schedules in the absence of scripted content.

One non-scripted producer tells C21 that US networks are preparing for every eventuality. “They’re not directly saying the writers’ strike is coming, but I get the impression that some of the networks and platforms that do both scripted and unscripted are starting to hedge their bets a little bit,” says the producer.

While a strike is a very real possibility, most agree that it would have a detrimental impact.

Frank Spotnitz, CEO of The Man in the High Castle producer Big Light Productions, says “everyone loses” when writers go on strike. “I’m hoping and praying there won’t be a writers’ strike, as it is such a brutal and damaging way to resolve conflict,” he says. “I will obviously support whatever decision is made by the Writers Guild, but I really hope the strike doesn’t happen.”

It remains early days, though, and C21 understands the WGA will begin bargaining closer to the May 1 deadline in order to maximise leverage. This strategy does not sit well with parts of the industry, with some arguing that starting talks later rather than sooner is not the most constructive strategy in this situation.

While writer/studio relations are certainly frayed today, the general sense is that the mood was worse ahead of the 2007 strike, potentially paving the way for constructive talks that could bring a new agreement ahead of May. That might be wishful thinking though, suggests the talent agent, who is betting on a strike. “If I’m in Vegas, I’m putting money that there’s a strike. And by the way, so are most people that I talk to on both sides.”