The Death of the Conventional Supermarket

VIEWPOINT

The Death Of The Conventional Supermarket

KEVIN COUPE

FOUNDER, MORNINGNEWSBEAT.COM

Are we living out, with apologies to Charles Dickens, a Tale of Two Industries?

Is this the best of times, or the beginning of the worst of times?

I’d argue that the answer to all of these questions is the same. Yes.

I am persuaded in this belief by Scott Moses, the managing director and head of grocery, pharmacy and restaurants at PJ Solomon, who recently joined me on MorningNewsBeat for an extended conversation about the economic and competitive state of the industry. There has been a sense over the past year that, as consumers found the supermarket industry to be essential during the pandemic, that this is a perception that will persist and a reality that will provide the business enormous momentum going forward. It is hard to know how the resurgence of the coronavirus and the emerging threat of the Delta Variant will impact the industry; as I write this, vaccinations are increasing (though too few people still are fully vaccinated) and there is an ongoing debate about mask and vaccination mandates. Lockdowns seem not to be on the table right now, thank goodness. Scott’s position is that there are two different industries – one dominated by Amazon, Walmart, Target, Costco, and Aldi, as well as Dollar General and Family Dollar, which are engaged in almost unprecedented expansion efforts, and another one that includes almost everyone else, most (though not all) of which are at a competitive disadvantage because of simple economics. He’s done a lot of research in this area, and here is the number that most concerns him – between 2010 and 2020, the national supermarket industry lost some 900 conventional stores, a drop of about three percent. Compare that to “discount supermarkets” (up by more than 1,500 units, or 61 percent), dollar stores (up a whopping 12,000 units, or 62 percent), and “natural/gourmet supermarkets,” up more than 500 units, or 133 percent). At the same time, Scott points out, Amazon has a valuation of more than one-and-a-half trillion dollars, way larger than (and this never ceases to amaze me) Walmart, Kroger, Albertsons, Ahold Delhaize, Costco, Target, CVS, Walgreens, and Dollar General. Combined. Which means that Amazon has access to financial resources that most of these companies do not (it can borrow money at lower rates than most countries), which makes it more competitive in almost any category in which it chooses to compete. All of which paints a picture of an industry in which the conventional sector, in some sense, is dying. There is an argument to be had, of course, about whether all this pain has been wreaked upon the conventional supermarket sector, or whether it is self-inflicted.

Once again, my response is: Yes. Both. A couple of things here. First, can we be clear about the definition of “conventional”?

“Concerned with what is generally held to be acceptable at the expense of individuality.” Whoa. That definition reads like an enormous red flag. I think it is fair to suggest that for retailers to succeed in 2022 and beyond, the last thing they ought to think about is acceptability, and the first thing they ought to be focused on is individuality. Isn’t the very definition of competing doing what the other side either cannot do or will not do?

“Can you honestly say that in your business, change is happening faster inside than outside?”

iStock

It is, in fact, the Moneyball argument, as made by Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane (Brad Pitt in the movie): “The problem we’re trying to solve is that there are rich teams, and there are poor teams. Then there’s 50 feet of crap. And then there’s us. It’s an unfair game.” Life is unfair, I always told my kids growing up, when they’d come to me with a complaint. Deal with it.

Jack Welch, the legendary CEO of GE, put it this way: “If change is happening on the outside faster than on the inside, the end is in sight.” Question: Can you honestly say that in your business, change is happening faster inside than outside?

If not, you may shortly have some explaining to do. (Maybe to your banker. Or your realtor.) The thing about change and innovation, though, is that they are not always achieved through some sort of expensive technology. Of course, tech certainly can be the engine of great change, but that’s not the only way to go. There’s that thing about individuality. Doing what the other side cannot do or will not do.

Do you know what those things are? If the competition is offering a new checkout-free store, then your job is to have the best checkout people in town. If the competition (not always a supermarket) is selling tuna fish sandwiches but finds itself questioned by the national media and activists about whether it is actually tuna, then your job is to have the best, freshest, most delicious tuna fish sandwiches in the market. (I’m biased on this one, believing in my heart that a great tuna melt is one of life’s great pleasures.) If the competition is antiseptic in its approach, then your job is make your store smell like fresh baked bread or chocolate chip cookies or whatever else will make folks hungry when they walk through the door. If most folks sell pre-packaged guacamole, then your job is to sell made-to-order guacamole so fresh and good that people will line up to buy it. These are only a few examples of how to compete in the current environment. There are many more. And it won’t be easy. Of course, the battles won’t only be played out on the competitive fields, but also, in all likelihood, in the court system and by both legislators and regulators. Scott Moses argues that this “Tale of Two Industries” narrative will need to be addressed with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and with national lawmakers highly focused on antitrust issues.

The good news is that rigorous antitrust enforcement might mean that big tech companies like Amazon could be broken up, which would at least limit for some period of time it ability to spend any amount wants on any amount it wants. (Though don’t delude yourself that this will blow up Amazon’s business model. Some would suggest that broken into two companies, Amazon actually becomes more valuable, not less so. But that’s a different conversation.

Scott says that one thing the industry must be vigilant about it making sure that the FTC does not apply a re-energized opposition to mergers and acquisitions to the independent/regional/conventional sector, where retailers may need to find new partners and alliances if they are to do the things necessary to survive. (Scott would concede that this sounds like this is a selfserving position to take, since his business is mergers and acquisitions. But I’ve never met a finance guy with as much sincere concern about the long-term vitality of a sector as Scott has for the supermarket industry.) The Death of the Conventional Supermarket. This isn’t just what I hope was an attention-grabbing headline. It is a challenge to never be conventional in thinking, implementation or vision. It is an opportunity to think of your store, your employees and your customers in a far more individualistic framework, thinking in a granular way about being essential. And it is a call to vigilance on all fronts, in what can be an unfair world, to make sure change and innovation are happening more on the inside than the outside. ■