BEEF AT HOME AND ABROAD

EARLY 2021 RED MEAT EXPORTS BELOW 2020 LEVELS AMID PANDEMIC CHALLENGES

from the U.S. Meat Export Federation

U.S. beef and pork exports opened 2021 below the large volumes posted a year ago, according to January data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef exports totaled 105,047 metric tons (mt) in January, down 2 percent from a year ago, while value slipped 3 percent to $653 million. The decline was due mainly to lower beef variety meat shipments, as muscle cut exports were steady with January 2020 at 81,398 mt, valued at $584.4 million (down 1 percent) and accounted for a larger share of production than a year ago.

January pork exports totaled 248,656 mt, down 9 percent from a year ago but slightly above USMEF’s projections. Export value was down 13 percent to $642.8 million. Pork muscle cut exports were down 11 percent in volume (208,234 mt) and 15 percent in value ($551.3 million), while pork variety meat shipments trended modestly higher than a year ago.

USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom said January represented a fairly solid start to 2021, but cautioned that exports still face COVID-related obstacles and significant transportation and labor challenges.

“As key destinations for U.S. red meat roll out COVID vaccination programs, the outlook for 2021 is optimistic, with retail meat demand remaining strong and the expectation that foodservice will rebound in more and more regions,” Halstrom said. “But transportation challenges are currently a dominant concern, particularly the congestion and container shortages at our West Coast ports where shorthanded crews are handling recordlarge cargo volumes. Labor is also at a premium in processing plants, which affects the industry’s ability to fully capitalize on demand for certain laborintensive cuts and variety meat items.

“Although the global foodservice sector still has a long recovery ahead, international demand for U.S. red meat remains impressive and resilient,” Halstrom added. “But a range of logistical challenges must be overcome in order to fully satisfy this demand.”

Korea shines for U.S. beef exports; momentum continues to grow in China

January beef exports equated to $311.78 per head of fed slaughter, up 3 percent from a year ago. Exports accounted for 13.3 percent of total beef production and 11 percent for muscle cuts only, above the January 2020 ratios of 13.1 percent and 10.6 percent, respectively.

Beef exports to South Korea opened 2021 on a very strong note, climbing 20 percent from a year ago in volume (21,355 mt) and 22 percent in value ($158.7 million). On Jan. 1, U.S. beef received another tariff reduction under the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement. The rate is now 13.3 percent – about one-third of the pre-FTA rate of 40 percent – and will decline to zero by 2026. The U.S. has a tariff advantage compared to Australia (18.6 percent) and Canada (21.3 percent) in 2021, and tariffs do not phase to zero for Australia and Canada until 2028 and 2029, respectively, under their free trade agreements with Korea. January was another big month for U.S. beef exports to China, which were up nearly 800 percent from a year ago in both volume (7,862

mt) and value ($58.1 million). In September, the U.S. overtook Australia as China’s largest grain-fed beef supplier. In January Australia’s grain-fed exports to China were 3,345 mt, down 49 percent from 2020.

Japan remained the leading volume market for U.S. beef at 22,018 mt, down 13 percent from a year ago, but slipped to second place in value (behind Korea) at $138.1 million (also down 13 percent). Most of Japan’s major cities have been under a COVID-related state of emergency since early January that includes reduced hours for restaurants and cafes. Restrictions were recently eased in some areas but remain in place in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Japan’s imports of U.S. beef have also been impacted by the U.S.-specific safeguard, which was likely triggered in March even as importers have slowed volumes in an effort to avoid reaching the safeguard threshold. As the safeguard was triggered, the duty on U.S. beef muscle cuts will increase from 25.8 percent to 38.5 percent for 30 days.

Other January highlights for U.S. beef exports include:

Following a big rebound in December, beef exports to Mexico eased to some degree to 18,045 mt (down 18 percent from a year ago) valued at $87.8 million (down 25 percent). However, exports remained well above the low levels posted in mid-2020 during the height of Mexico’s foodservice restrictions and high U.S. prices resulting from supply challenges.

After setting a fifth consecutive volume record in 2020, exports to Taiwan trended lower in January at 3,833 mt (down 27 percent from a year ago) valued at $38.7 million (down 11 percent). The outlook for U.S. beef remains very positive in Taiwan, based on strong retail and foodservice demand.

Beef exports to Canada continued to gain momentum in January, climbing 5 percent from a year ago in both volume (9,905 mt) and value ($61.8 million).

Following a down year in 2020, beef exports to the Middle East rebounded to 6,847 mt, up 6 percent from a year ago, while value jumped 20 percent to $20.4 million. Beef variety meat exports to mainstay market Egypt were steady with last year, while muscle cuts posted impressive growth in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.