u Trends into Possibilities

ously, the United States had one of the highest growth rates of major countries.

• While the overall population of the United States increased to 331.4 million the rate of growth was only 7.4% compared to the 9.7% increase in the previous decade.

• Population estimates between 2019 and 2020 revealed that the nation grew at a rate of 0.35%. This represents the second smallest growth rate since 1900.

• Some of the decline was due to new immigration restrictions with the deaths endured by the pandemic which all resulted in fewer births, more deaths, and uneven immigration.

An Aging Nation

For a while now demographers have been projecting that our population is aging and this Census reinforces that projection.

• Data show that between 2010 and 2020, the number of people over age 55 grew by 27%

• This increase is 20 times larger than the growth rate of the overall population as the under 55 population increased by 1.3%.

• The largest driver of this divide is the baby boomer generation, who passed the age of 65 during the past decade, increasing the size of the 65- to 74-year-old age group by a half.

• All states, metro areas, and most counties are likely to be impacted by the increase in their 55-and-older populations. Even if you are in a state or community that demonstrates stagnating growth, the aging in place preference of baby boomers will result in greater impact.

• And as shocking as it may seem 2021 will find that the first millennials have already turned age 40.

Landscape architects, park planners, and civil engineers at David Evans and Associates, Inc. (DEA) provide creative and innovative design solutions that balance growth with environmental sensitivity. DEA offers you experienced professionals in multiple disciplines who can quickly form a team to meet your project needs. We work closely with public and private clients to plan and design parks, trails, resorts, residential, and commercial land development projects.

Growing Divide in Racial and Ethnic Backgrounds.

Census Bureau population estimates released last year revealed that more than half of the nation’s total population are now members of the millennial generation or younger. And while these younger generations—born in 1981 or later—are not growing as rapidly as older age groups, they are far more racially diverse.

Immigrants and their children have contributed to both the growth and diversity of the nation’s younger population. However, more recently, natural increase rather than immigration is the primary source of Latino or Hispanic population growth.

The demographic shifts are in about 60% of the U.S. population identifies as white alone; including more than 70% for baby boomers and their elders, but only about half for the combined Gen Z and younger populations, with nearly two-fifths of those groups identifying as “Black or brown.”

Source: William Frey, Brookings Institute

California By the Numbers

California’s Census includes the presence of the three major shifts cited by Frey of the Brookings Institute; the population is stagnating; the older population is increasing; and the state is becoming more diverse.

Stagnation

While California remains the most populated state in the nation, the stagnation mentioned previously is a part of the California picture. Some of the factors to recall or learn about the population of California include the following:

• One in 8 US residents lives in California with a population of over 39 million people making it larger that Texas with 29 million and Florida with 22 million

• California’s population has slowed dramatically recently. From 2010 to 2020, the state’s population grew by 5.8% while the rate of growth for the rest of the country was 6.8%

• It is not that all growth in California is stagnating, but where the growth is occurring is changing. Growth occurred in different areas of the state including the eastern Bay Area, the Inland Empire, and the Sacramento area due to their access to urban job centers and the greater affordability of housing.

This has resulted in California losing a Congressional seat for the first time in its history.

Aging of the Population

California is aging, but it is young compared to the rest of the country. As the baby boom ages so does California.

• By 2030 about one in five Californians will be 65 or older.

• This is offset as California has the eighth youngest population in the country with a median age of 37.3

California’s Population is Diverse

There is no one race or ethnic groups that constitutes a majority of California’s population.

The breakdown of residents in this category:

39% Latino

35% White

15% Asian America or Pacific Islander

5% Black

4% multi-racial less than 1% Native Americans or Alaska Natives

Source: Public Policy Institute of California

More Specific Changes –County Shifts

More than 73% (2,297) of U.S. counties experienced natural decrease in 2021, up from 45.5% in 2019 and 55.5% in 2020.

• In 2021, all counties in Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire and Rhode Island experienced natural decrease.

• Some counties also experienced population declines attributable to migration. Counties with net international migration loss (more people moving out of than into the county), were most frequently found in California (41.4%), Oregon (27.8%) and Mississippi (23.2%).

• States with the highest percentages of counties with net domestic migration loss (people moving from one area to another area within the United States) were Alaska (80.0%), Louisiana (71.9%) and Illinois (65.7%) o Sixty-three percent of metro areas had positive net domestic migration, with Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ (66,850); Dallas-Fort o The largest metropolitan net domestic migration losses were in New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (385,455); Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA (204,776); San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA (128,870); and Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI (106,897).

• Most of the nation’s counties –2,063 or 65.6% -- experienced positive domestic migration overall from 2020 to 2021. Arizona’s Maricopa County gained the most (46,866) residents from domestic migration, followed by Riverside County, California (31,251), and Collin County, Texas (30,191).

• Los Angeles County, California, experienced the greatest net domestic migration loss (179,757 residents), followed by New York County, New York (113,642).

• In many cases, there was a shift from larger, more populous counties to medium and smaller ones. These patterns contributed to population increases in 1,822 counties (58.0%), while 1,313 (41.8%) lost residents, and eight (0.3%) saw no change in population.

• U.S. micro areas, up 0.2% between 2020 and 2021, grew slightly faster than U.S. metro areas, which increased by 0.1%. This is a departure from past trends when metro areas typically grew at a faster rate than micro areas. Among metro areas, 251 (65%) experienced population increases between 2020 and 2021. Of the 543 U.S. micro areas, 287 experienced increases.

• Of the 384 metro areas in the 50 states and District of Columbia, 213 (55.5%) experienced natural decrease in 2021, with Pittsburgh, PA (-10,838); Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL (-9,291); and North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL (-6,643) having the highest levels.

Worth-Arlington, TX (54,319); and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL (42,089) seeing the largest net domestic migration gains.

Growth and decline:

• Five of the top 10 largest-gaining counties in 2021, were in Texas. Collin, Fort Bend, Williamson, Denton and Montgomery counties gained a combined 145,663 residents.

• Los Angeles County, California experienced the largest population loss of any county, losing 159,621 residents in 2021.

• Seventy-one percent of counties (2,218) experienced positive net international migration.

• Four counties crossed the threshold of 100,000 residents in 2021— Cleveland County, North Carolina (100,359), Lancaster County, South Carolina (100,336), Bastrop County, Texas (102,058), and Grant County, Washington (100,297).

• Los Angeles County, California (9,829,544) and Cook County, Illinois (5,173,146), had more than 5 million residents in 2021, Source: USCensus Bureau

Numbers in Your County, City, or Town

The Census Bureau does provide greater specifics and insights into the population you serve, but that information is usually released after the bigger, overall picture of the nation and individual states. Where you can anticipate findings shortly. There may be other sources you can begin to examine now ahead of those releases.

If you need assistance? Creating a community or country profile is just a matter of collecting data. If you have data and are uncertain of its implications for the trends in your community, email me at Ellenosull@gmail.com and I will try to assist you with that effort.

By John Glaeser Director of Communications California Park & Recreation Society