Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Current Market: Dysart Dynamo 9/4, Constitution Hill 5/2, Jonbon 5/1, Kilcruit 13/2, Mighty Potter 8/1, Bring On The Night 25/1, Shallwehaveonemore 50/1, Silent Revolution 100/1, JPR One 100/1 Bring On The Night T: Willie Mullins 1
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5 11-7 J: Bryan Cooper
O: Mrs J Donnelly
Easily made a winning hurdling debut following almost 2 years off the track in a Naas maiden hurdle. Flat-bred gelding with 2 wins on the flat in minor races at Deauville and Compiegne in 2020, keeping on well both times. In his Naas run, he blunders at the first hurdle - knocking it flat without losing significant momentum. He flicks over the second in a slightly better fashion and looks quicker still at the third. Coming down towards the last, he displayed significant greenness with an awkward head carriage and a disorganised jump at the last flight of hurdles when asked to quicken. The time of that run was a 3:57.80, 26.8s outside of standard but on soft ground in what looked like relatively testing conditions. The time was very similar to the handicap hurdle where, carrying 11-7, Palace Rock completed in 3:56.00. It was also significantly slower than the earlier Grade 2 BetVictor Novices Hurdle, in which Flame Bearer ran a 3:46.90. The track was deteriorating, with the 2 handicap hurdles before then also both being ran closer to the times of Bring On The Night and Palace Rock’s races. Nevertheless, the time isn’t overly impressive and whilst the proximity of both Smooth Scotch and Junior Alliance suggests that there was probably more in the tank for Bring On The Night. A list of horses with only one run over hurdles coming to the Supreme wouldn’t be a long list. Berkshire Royal tried this as his hurdling debut for Willie Mullins and was the last horse to finish in 2020. Bringing all this together, he has an unappealing profile for the race and while he clearly has potential for the future, this may be aiming a bit too high this early on in his hurdling career. Readily opposed. Suggested Price: 40/1 Constitution Hill T: Nicky Henderson 2-11
5 J: Nico De Boinville
11-7 O: Michael Buckley
Runner up in a point-to-point before impressively winning his first two starts under rules at Sandown, including a 12-length demolition of the Grade 1 Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle. Watching back his Tolworth hurdle win, one thing stands out about this horse and it’s how impressively he jumps every single hurdle. He’s safe and quick every single time at Sandown. At the third and fourth flights, he jumps within a length of Jetoile before being reined back behind the horse who clearly wasn’t capable enough to take him into the race as far as Nico De Boinville would have liked. Even more impressive is how effortlessly he quickens to put the entire field under pressure and puts in a jump at the second last which gains him three lengths on the field. Added to
that, on debut, he showed a sparkling turn of foot to turn away Might I in ready fashion after travelling supremely well the whole way round – a feature of both of his runs. The time of his Tolworth success was 4:22.90, 30.90 seconds slower than standard but on very testing ground. For comparison, He was still 2.7 seconds quicker than the juvenile hurdle that opened the card and was 10.85 seconds quicker than the handicap hurdle dominated by horses carrying low weights at the end of the card. On debut over the same course and distance but on quicker ground, he ran a 4:05.80 – 7 seconds faster than the handicap hurdle that finished the card and 8 seconds faster than the one in the middle of the card – putting him approximately 30 lengths clear of both fields. The visual impression is backed up by the clock. Whilst the level of the form is debatable, it’s certainly no worse than many in this field and the clock backing up his performance is important. Two hurdle runs is probably on the inexperienced side in this race, although this race contains more inexperienced hurdlers than usual. The last one to win after only two runs was Captain Cee Bee, in 2008. Ebaziyan had also managed it in 2007. Shishkin had only completed two hurdles when he took the race in 2020, prevailing by a head. If anything tempers enthusiasm on Constitution Hill, this is it. Suggested Price: 11/4 Dysart Dynamo T: Willie Mullins 1-111
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6 11-7 J: Paul Townend
O: Ms Eleanor Manning
Easily and emphatically won all four starts under rules, two bumpers and two hurdle races. Last time, bolted up in the Moscow Flyer at Punchestown, beating Gringo D’aubrelle by 19 lengths. Last time he was keen to get back from before the race even began, looking keen all throughout the preliminaries and then keenly making all in the actual race. The only minor blemish in that race was his jump 2 out, where he wasn’t quite foot perfect, landing on all fours and a bit disorganised. In a race of this quality, a mistake at a key time such as that could see someone like Constitution Hill just gain a couple of lengths on him at a key stage. Time wise, he ran a 4:06.70, 22.70 outside standard on soft going. One race later, Hiaou was 9.5 seconds slower in the first division of a maiden hurdle, and Supreme Jet was slower still, 12 seconds slower. On the clock, this was a serious performance from Dysart Dynamo. However, he was slower than both Getabird and Douvan who ran the race on similar ground in their Supreme years. Like Constitution Hill, he’s had two runs over hurdles – a bit on the inexperienced side. He’s also seemingly less professional than Constitution Hill, showing an unwillingness to settle. There’s every chance he will be allowed to bowl along in this race, as anything else that could lead lacks the ability he has. The concern would be if multiple horses attempt to lead and with Silent Revolution and Shallewehaveonemore in particular, there are a few keen horses who could decide to take a chance from the front. Suggested Price: 10/3 Jonbon T: Nicky Henderson 11-111
6 11-7 J: Aidan Coleman
O: J P McManus
Unbeaten in 4 races under rules, 1 bumper and 3 hurdle races. Last time out, won the Grade 2 Supreme Trial at Haydock, comfortably, by 3 lengths. The brother to the aforementioned 2015 Supreme winner Douvan, Jonbon has been a divisive figure amongst racing fans. Last time at Haydock, he seems workmanlike until he finally gets on top close to the line. Visually, a lot has been made of how unimpressive it was. Personally, I’m more taken with it. Haydock soft is a test, and he was giving 5lb to the entire field which is not always the easiest task. The one thing I’m taken with is how well he seems to jump on the outside, frequently making ground at the hurdles before being reined back again by Aidan Coleman. He idles in the closing stages when the race is in the bag and looks like he’d be value for much more than the winning margin would suggest. Visually, I don’t think it’s a bad race. On better ground, in races that probably haven’t been run to suit, he’s shown resolution and quickness to stamp his authority on races where he’s had to make his own running against his will. Comparatively, Dysart Dynamo is a free-going sort who would be happy making his own running and Constitution Hill has been given a nice lead. At Haydock, he ran a 3:57.23, 19.23 outside of standard and 5 seconds slower than the time of Tommy’s Oscar in the Grade 2, but 7 seconds faster than the winner of the concluding handicap who finished in 4:04.30. This shows the improvement still required by Jonbon, as Tommy’s Oscar is at best an outside chance in the Champion Hurdle. Collateral form with Might I also shows that Jonbon’s form here probably isn’t quite on the same level as Constitution Hill’s debut, let alone his more impressive Tolworth win – although I don’t think the difference is drastic, as there is an 8lb swing in the weights and Constitution Hill looked every bit the finished article on his debut – a scary proposition. While I really like Jonbon and I think he’s certainly a talented horse, he’s not shown that he’s in the same ballpark as Constitution Hill or Dysart Dynamo of the ones analysed so far. He could take a step forward for racing with better horses who will give him a better lead, but he would have to take a significant one. Suggested Price: 13/2 JPR One T: Colin Tizzard 1210
5 11-7 J: Brendan Powell
O: J P Romans
Winner of two novice hurdles, last time out he was comfortably beaten in the Betfair Hurdle. Seemingly a wildcard entry, JPR One was well beat in a race that is not a good trial for this race even if you win it. Last year, For Pleasure came here and ran a fine front-running third after being well beat in the Betfair Hurdle, but that seems like a one-off, with the race falling apart and For Pleasure being helped by his front-running ability. JPR One does not share that same ability. His time in his novice hurdle at Exeter is the only real time worth taking into account, where he ran a 4:11.50, 8 seconds slower than ordinary handicapper Mack The Man managed later on the card. JPR One is a nice horse, his starting price of 13/2 last time clearly suggests that but he’s flying too high in this race and looks like a back number. Suggested Price: 200/1
Kilcruit T: Willie Mullins 2-1231
t 7 11-7 J: Mr Patrick Mullins
O: Miss M A Masterson
Second in the 2021 Champion Bumper, winner of 2 bumpers and 1 hurdle race. Last time out he cantered home by 21 lengths at Punchestown. Kilcruit is easily the most interesting horse in this race. A fine second to odds-on favourite for the Ballymore Sir Gerhard in the Champion Bumper last year, a race he himself was 10/11 to take and was only beaten by a masterful ride from the inspired Rachel Blackmore is arguably still the best form available in this race despite the fact there were no obstacles in his way. Since putting the obstacles in the way, Kilcruit has found life tougher. However, last time he put it all together and for me that is the only race worth analysing of his, although even before that, both of his odds-on reversals now look like they could have been excusable due to the level of horses beating him. Last time at Punchestown, he ran riot against some ordinary horses. Visually, it’s very taking. His jumping isn’t quite foot perfect, and that’s what the key test will be at this level for him, but there is no doubting the engine that his horse has. Watched side by side with Dysart Dynamo, over the same course and distance, he looks exactly the same – and he was carrying more weight but on slightly quicker ground. On the clock, he ran a 4:05.10, a few lengths quicker than Dysart Dynamo. Based on the runs of the second place, I think he still has approximately 6 lengths to find with Dysart Dynamo but we know how good this horse was expected to be, and we know the engine that’s there from the bumpers. I don’t see any reason why he can’t improve. He rates as a solid chance, with each hurdling experience seemingly making him better – the ceiling is high. Suggested Price: 7/2 Mighty Potter T: Gordon Elliott 1-131
5 11-7 J: Jack Kennedy
O: Caldwell Construction Ltd
A winner of 3 races under rules, including 1 bumper and 2 hurdle races. Last time out he won a Grade 1 at Leopardstown, by 1½ lengths from Three Stripe Life. Of the Irish contingent, he looks the second weakest behind Bring On The Night. I’m not too taken with the form of his two early Grqade 1 runs, where finishing close up were contenders for the County Hurdle and Mares Hurdle. That sort of form leaves him with an awful lot to find in a Supreme. Furthermore, he didn’t seem to jump brilliantly, particularly last time, where he seemed to get a few slightly wrong. Nothing majorly concerning, but he just isn’t as good as the fancied runners in this. Visually, I also don’t think he looks like he quickens as well as some of the others. He ran his Future Novice’s Grade 1 win in 4:00.20, only 3 seconds faster than the handicap that was one race later and won easily, and 5 seconds faster than the 3yo maiden hurdle, dominated by Fred Winter hopefuls.
I think he has enough to find to be competitive here, and while I can see him battling for places with Kilcruit and Jonbon, I think he needs to improve. Suggested Price: 8/1 Shallwehaveonemore 5 11-7 T: Gary Moore J: Joshua Moore 1-2412
O: Steven Packham
Winner of two races, one bumper and one novice hurdle. Last time out, beaten in the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle. Fair play for having a go, but this horse probably has more to find than JPR One. He was well beaten when the main danger to Constitution Hill at Sandown, although on ground that didn’t suit him. Even thin, his own Sandown Good-to-soft win was 5 seconds slower than Constitution Hill’s, showing how much he has left to find. Again, he’s certainly a nice horse but he will be asking a lot to be involved here. Suggested Price: 200/1 Silent Revoultion T: Paul Nicholls 2-131
w2 6 J: Harry Cobden
11-7 O: Colm Donlon
Winner of 1 bumper and 1 hurdle race, beating Broomfield Burg by 1½ lengths last time at Newbury. Not really one for social runners, Paul Nicholls has left Silent Revolution involved in this, which is an interesting marker in itself. However, on the formbook, he’s got everything to find. Last time at Newbury he beat an okay handicapper in Broomfield Burg, who was well beaten in the Betfair Hurdle and has shown slight resolution issues for me. His time wasn’t spectacular, barely beating the race before which was won by another Paul Nicholls horse who has since been beaten from a handicap mark of 118. He has a lot to find, and may only serve to disrupt Dysart Dynamo. Suggested Price: 100/1 Conclusion: The ones at the front of the market clearly appear to hold sway in this and based on the current market, the obvious value for me is Kilcruit. He’s finding his feet over hurdles and whilst he can’t afford to still be finding them in this race, no man is better than Willie Mullins for getting one right for the big day. Constitution Hill is also starting to look like value in the face of unwavering support for Dysart Dynamo since declarations were made. Should start broaching past the 3/1 mark, he will look like a necessary bet. He does, to me, look like the most likely winner.