We Can't Keep Dodging the Iceberg: Getting Moving on Net Zero

We can't keep dodging the iceberg:

getting moving on Net Zero

- By Michael Powell -

Vice President, Government Relations, Canadian Electricity Association

If it wasn’t for COVID-19, the big news story of 2020 would have been the global natural disasters that climate change is causing.

The year began with a continent literally on fire. The recordbreaking Australian bushfire season razed more than 18 million hectares— an area about 50% larger than Southern Ontario. As the year wore on, the Atlantic hurricane season matched the record with a number of storms so high, they were running out of names. The world tied for the warmest year on record.

In late 2020, Iceberg A-68a, a chunk of ice that had broken away from an Antarctic iceshelf three years earlier, twice the size of Luxembourg, seemed like it was going to run around in the shallow waters around South Georgia Island. Sitting there, the iceberg risked blocking access to food for the hundreds of thousands of penguins, seals and sea birds that reside there. This blockade would have crushed the microscopic sea life that is foundational to other parts of the ecosystem, creating irreversible damage to our planet. Not to worry though – in the end, it broke up and moved elsewhere... this time, at least.

Collectively, we are those penguins, living our lives while a colossal frozen metaphor for anthropogenic climate change lurks just out of sight, ready to threaten us with an existential and catastrophic change. Fortunately, we have some agency and are able to act on it. It seems that we are finally willing to do so.

The big commitment now is “Net Zero by 2050” which means that, on balance, no new greenhouse gases are emitted into the atmosphere.

That doesn’t mean that nothing will emit GHGs, but that those emissions will be offset by GHGs pulled from the atmosphere elsewhere through negative emissions.

In Canada, the federal government has committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050 and has introduced legislation to formalize the target. The Biden administration describes climate change as one of the four converging crises facing America and has committed to building more renewable power to make the United States grid carbon-neutral by 2035.

Industry is also taking up the movement: Shell announced that it expects to have reached peak oil production by 2025, and General Motors – which has historically resisted efforts for more stringent fuel efficiency – has committed to have 30 EV models for sale.

Setting a target is easy, but how do we meet them? At present, Canada emits about 730 Mt of GHGs each year. Definitionally, net zero means reducing that number to zero, even as the population and economy grows. This is no small lift, and the ultimate path to net zero will depend on how and when modern technologies emerge and become economically viable.

Inevitably, that is going to mean using more electricity. Canada already has one of the cleanest electricity grids in the world. More than 80% of Canada’s electricity is already non-emitting, and the sector has reduced emissions by nearly 50% since 2005.

This is a strong starting point, but there remains a long way to go. Right now, electricity only represents about one fifth of Canada’s overall energy mix, according to the Government of Canada’s new climate plan. We have to get started, and we can’t stop once we do.

For the most part, this isn’t a question of developing new technology. The Canadian Institute For Climate Choices, a government-funded think tank, analyzed 60 potential pathways that it said could achieve net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. It characterized a variety of carbonreduction actions as either “safe bets” or “wild cards.” Potential actions related to the increased use of electricity in the near term were generally in the “safe bets” category.

Even those categorized as “wild cards” were uncertain.

“Technically doable” pushes the burden for action back to policy makers. A build-out of the electricity system will require clear and consistent policy from decision makers as electricity companies anticipate substantial capital investments. The Government of Canada has been clear that any postpandemic stimulus efforts will be structured not just to get Canadians back to work, but also to advance broader issues, especially addressing climate change. If we are going to build back, it makes sense to build back better. April’s Federal budget was built on the new climate plan, proposing new programs and upping our 2030 GHG reduction target to 40% or more.

As previously mentioned, the Biden administration is also placing a high priority on GHG emissions, listing climate change as one of the four converging crises facing America. Already, the United States has taken action by re-joining the Paris Climate Accord, a first day Executive Order that directed the federal government to advance climate goals committing to a non-emitting electricity sector by 2035. Infrastructure efforts will also be focused on climate change and making more clean power.

Where should we prioritize investments?

CEA’s 2021 State of the Industry report identifies important actions that need to happen – including the development and commercialization of technologies such as energy storage, small modular reactors, hydrogen, and carbon capture and utilization. We will also need to rethink how we regulate our sector, all while making sure we build a system that isn’t just clean, but also affordable and reliable. At the heart of this should be a comprehensive plan for electrification.

This is a unique opportunity. Government and industry are ready to make choices that can set us on a path to a more sustainable future. Working together, we can build an electricity grid that meets the needs of tomorrow. We should be ready to seize it, and we should work to avoid leaving our fate to matters outside our control without realizing it – just like our well-dressed avian friends in the South Atlantic.