Wind risk

Climate change: Risk for blue and brown water marine insurance markets

Oceangoing international and inland shipping continues to increase, both in cargo volume and dollar value, as consumption and inflation rises. Additionally, given the surge in ocean and inland trade, climate change related risks must be properly accounted for. Michael Venturella, Practice Leader-Marine Group, of Envista Forensics examines the shared risk factors that exacerbate the risk and size of these losses, discusses engagement of retaining the right experts, and technology solutions that can help to prevent many losses, reduce risk exposure and reduce the financial size of losses

Worldwide, cyclone activity trends are increasing both in quantity and intensity. Specifically, North Atlantic cyclone intensity has visibly increased in the last two decades, with eight of the ten most active years since 1950 occurring within the last 25 years.

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) concludes that the increasing sea surface temperatures caused by climate change is a key factor influencing cyclone formation and behaviour and is impacting tropical cyclones. Globally, based on observations since 1980, the intensity and rate of intensification of tropical cyclones has increased similarly. (Source: news.sciencebrief.org)

Inland river navigation can be difficult even without negotiating the complications of strong river currents or storm winds. Larger tows may require a half mile or more to stop in ideal conditions and have blind areas forward of the barges pushed ahead because of line-of-sight problems.

Navigation is typically restricted to narrow marked channels which is further constrained during lock passages. Rivers often have sharp, blind turns which prevent obtaining early visuals of oncoming traffic.

Given the impact of climate change on frequency and intensity of storms, river levels are reaching record highs from the dangerous flooding of heavy rainfalls. Unpredictable and swift river currents brought on by high river levels can be dangerous when near locks and dams. The undercurrents that develop near locks and dams are so strong that they can pull vessels under the water.

The same high water river currents will also result in dangerous moving debris like logs or pieces of damaged docks. The swift currents or storm winds can result in barges breaking free from tows or from fleeting areas causing additional damages through allisions with structures or collisions with vessels on the rivers.

HEAVY WEATHER ROUTING

There has always been pressure on ship masters to provide a timely and economical delivery of cargo. As the timeliness of cargo is often the priority of many vessel operating companies, masters are put in difficult positions in which they often choose to proceed through the path of a storm or on a dangerously high river to avoid delaying the timely arrival of cargo at the next port of call.

The US Coast Guard (USCG) is aware of this risk, which is a causal factor in many of the largest marine casualties and accidents, such as the SS El Faro sinking in Hurricane Joaquin, with the loss of 33 lives in October, 2015.

Flag state guidance was released in 2018 by the USCG that vessel safety management systems should evaluate the risk of heavy weather and provide ships routing procedures related to heavy weather. When it comes to heavy weather routing of ships at sea, it is important to understand that hurricane forecasts can have large-scale track and intensity errors. Weather routing strategies must include frequent weather forecasts from multiple sources and a strategy for storm avoidance.

Storm avoidance strategies often employed by mariners include the 34 Knot (KT) rule and the Mariner 1-2-3 rule. The 34 KT rule is the plotting of ship tracks outside of the 34 KT wind field forecast for the storm. The Mariner 1-2-3 Rule assumes a 100-mile error radius for a 24-hour forecast,

“Given the impact of climate change on frequency and intensity of storms, river levels are reaching record highs from the dangerous flooding of heavy rainfalls. Unpredictable and swift river currents brought on by high river levels can be dangerous when near locks and dams.”

Michael Ventruella, Envista Forensics

200-mile radius for a 48-hour forecast, and a 300-mile radius for a 72-hour forecast. These two methods can combine to ensure plotted tracks account for forecast error and ensure the ship stays outside of the 34 KT wind field.

For inland rivers traffic, this technique cannot be used, as navigation is constrained within the river and locks. Inland rivers traffic may have to wait out a storm to safely avoid the risk of transiting through higher winds but should also watch and plan for heavy weather.

INLAND RIVER ALLISIONS

Dating back to 2019, the US averaged 25 individual vessel marine casualties involving a lock or dam each year. The high came in 2019, when the Upper Mississippi River, Arkansas River, and Missouri River flooded, all of which drain into the Lower Mississippi, resulting in multiple records for the length of time river levels remained at major flood stage. The correlation between flooding and allisions, especially when combined with pressure to ensure cargo arrives at its destination on time, is evident.

CONTAINER SHIP CARGO LOSSES

Container losses at sea often occur during passage of the ship through heavy weather. Heavy weather can result in propulsion loss because of severe rolling that puts many systems beyond their operational limits prescribed by international regulation.

Any loss of propulsion in heavy weather may worsen the rolling by subjecting the vessel to winds and seas directly on the beam. Heavy weather also provides a test for the securing of containers with lashings, often in high stacks. The forces acting on the containers in a storm provide longitudinal, transverse, and vertical accelerations that may exceed anticipated conditions if storm lashings were not applied.

Between 2008 and 2019, there was an average of 1,382 containers lost at sea each year. (Source: World Shipping Council Containers Lost at Sea 2020 Update) Between late 2020 and 2021, the number of containers lost dramatically increased with several larger incidents including One Apus, which lost 1,816 containers in late 2020, Maersk Essen, which lost 750 containers in January, 2021, Maersk Eindhoven, which lost 260 containers in February, 2021, and Zim Kingston, which lost 109 containers in late 2021, among others.

TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS

As vessels and their crews become more reliant on computers used for stability, cargo securing, loading, navigation, and machinery monitoring and control, the paper manuals heavily relied on during classification and flag state reviews may no longer be applicable.

Operators must ensure that requirements are being met, without reduction in safety factors, by use of these technology tools without their respective manuals. This may mean consideration of human factors in software design and eventual changes to international and domestic regulation based on this approach.

Weather routing software is used and often heavily relied upon by vessel masters. Investigations of past weatherrelated marine casualties found that some weather routing software relies on delayed or inaccurate weather forecasts. Given the inherent track and intensity errors in forecasts, which increase with time, reliance on delayed weather reports can result in failed weather routing in which a vessel transits a high wind field.

While reliance on a sole source of weather information is not advisable, a human factors approach would assume that crews would rely more heavily on the tool that provides the best visual display of the weather and routing which is often the weather routing software.

Development of weather routing software that incorporates multiple weather models with real time forecast delivery will reduce risk for the ships and their cargo. In addition, shoreside personnel should also monitor the tropical forecast and offer maritime support for the master’s storm avoidance decisions.

Masters are put in difficult positions in which they often choose to proceed through the path of a storm to avoid delaying the timely arrival of cargo at the next port of call. This risk, is a factor in many of the largest marine casualties and accidents, such as the SS EL FARO (inset) sinking in Hurricane Joaquin, with the loss of 33 lives in October, 2015.

FIND THE RIGHT EXPERTS

Vessel allisions with locks and dams can quickly become complicated, as the damage to the vessel and the impacted structure can present difficult and costly repairs with settlements negotiated with the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE).

It is essential for those involved in vessel allisions with locks and dams to identify and engage early naval architects and marine engineers, civil/structural engineers and building consultants experienced with the process.

Early engagement of these experts will ensure the process is understood, agreed-to and controlled to ensure the cost of repairs is kept to a fair and reasonable amount.

For major container losses, it is essential for insurers to identify naval architects, marine engineers, and digital forensics experts that can properly identify causal factors in the loss, while protecting critical electronic evidence.

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