A flooded road to resilience

] by Solis Norton

farms in the lower South Island, all medium to high performers and none flood damaged. Well eyebrows surely rose as the Farmax results rolled in.

crop to silage. In some instances that investment topped two million dollars.

heartbreak of seeing those endeavours simply washed away.

It makes one wonder. Is it genuinely true that these events will become more common with climate change? And would you rebuild a heavily damaged farm system the same or differently in light of that knowledge?

In the process of rebuilding, would you invest in additional changes for greater resilience and productivity? No time like the present and all that? For better water quality? Or for managing random massive quantities? And at what cost?

Quite independently we just explored some of these questions on five drystock

We’d talked to the owners about what changes would suit them and their business goals, keeping improvements in water quality central to the conversation.

Four options from benign to extreme emerged. Shifting from intensive winter grazing to grass silage for winter feed was fi rst.

Riparian fencing and in some cases planting was second. Building a winter barn to take stock out of the mud on crop was another. Lastly there was improving the efficiency of irrigation by changing from border dykes and flood types to pivots.

Two options were modelled on each farm. All required investment except shifting from

In virtually all cases profit before tax was reduced when these farms invested in these changes. By almost forty percent In one scenario.

Perhaps more importantly, uncertainty around financial conditions for future borrowing were not explored in detail, despite inflation rates shifting markedly recently. Nor did we explore the effect of changing input prices on the amount of borrowing required. Those are changing fast too. Or re-jigging the team on-farm to fit the labour demands of the new system. Knowing full well it’s hard to find good staff.

Two more reality checks were on our mind. Firstly, these endeavours often run into budget blow outs which the famer alone is left to bear. Second, in light of recent events, is the

These modelling results will be a small part in probably a thousand page report written for people who do not understand farming and not read by farmers but used all the same to shape farming conditions in the coming years. I wonder if those readers will grasp the underlying message here.

I’m still trying to get my head around what it really means. Surely It centres on resilience somehow. But how can resilience be both to make changes to improve the environment and not make change because it reduces profit and exposes the farm business to substantial risk. What do you think? Is this another post growth moment? How should we respond?

I’d value your thoughts. Email solisnorton1@gmail.com.