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What Would it Take to Reopen the District?
With Benchmarks Identified, An Expert Looks at Data and Testing by Elizabeth O’Gorek
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e’ve all heard the stories, and some of us are living them. People have lost their jobs, local businesses are worried about paying staff and staying solvent. Restaurants are closing, some temporarily and some for good. People are sick, and people have died. As the COVID-19 crisis continues in the District, the question everyone is asking is: when do we turn a corner? And, who will be at the rudder? Scientists are already trying to map a pathway out of the pandemic. On April 17, experts at Johns Hopkins University released guidance for governors on a phased reopening, which Mayor Muriel Bowser said would guide decisions on the reopening of the District. Most experts agree that the return to something approaching what was once called ‘normal’ will be a slow, phased process.
Slow Phases to Reopening
Right now, the District and most of the nation are in the first phase described in the John Hopkins report, where we try to slow the spread of the disease by staying away from one another, shutting down non-essential businesses and limiting gatherings. District officials say that while there were fewer confirmed cases than expected in late April, with hospitals running at about 75 percent capacity as of April 20, they are still planning for cases to peak in late June. Most experts agree that the District cannot reach the third phase, when restrictions are completely lifted, until there is a coronavirus vaccine. In ear20
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ly March, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) Director Anthony Fauci said even under these urgent conditions a vaccine could take 12 to 18 months to develop. In between, there is the second and most uncertain phase, a gradual reopening on the local level. It is an uncertain phase because it is not clear what metrics or data will be used to determine when each jurisdiction is ready to reopen. It is also uncertain because even a gradual lifting of protective measures is likely to eventually trigger a new rise in cases, forcing leaders to reimpose strict measures. Finally, there is question of what will be allowed to reopen and who will be permitted –or compelled—to step outside the restrictions first. If COVID-19 was taking place outside of social and economic concerns, it may be desirable for social restrictions to remain in place until a vaccine was approved. However, even the DirectorGeneral of the World Health Organization (WHO) acknowledges the real-life conditions that make this impossible. During an April 13th press conference, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus discussed the huge number of people who have lost their jobs and the closure of schools disrupting education for years to come. “This has halted their education, opened some to increased risk of abuse and deprived many children of their primary source of food,” he said.
What to Reopen, and When?
Healthcare Systems Engineer Julie Swann agrees. The A. Doug Allison Distinguished Professor of the Fitts Depart-
