November Monthly Snapshot – Nifty 50
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CONTENTS Latest Updates Technical Analysis (M.A., PIVOTS, FIBO)
S&P CNX Nifty Bank Nifty Future BSE Sensex
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Latest Updates 10th OctTTK Prestige has reported a rise of 54.6% in net profit of Rs 33.7 crore for the second quarter of FY12. It recorded net profit of Rs 21.8 crore in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal
11th Oct Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) subsidiary CMC today reported a 25% drop in its second quarter consolidated net profit at Rs 32.63 crore, down from Rs 43.63 crore in the year-ago period.
12th Oct Country's second largest software services exporter Infosys has reported a growth of 10.81% in net profit for the quarter ended September 2011, as per IFRS. Wind power company Net profit was at Rs 1,906 crore in second quarter of FY12 as against Rs 1,720 crore in previous quarter
13th Oct Praj Industries has announced its second quarter results. The company's Q2 net profit was up 127.78% at Rs 20.5 crore versus Rs 9 crore, year-on-year, Y/Y Its net sales were up 112.57% at Rs 230 crore versus Rs 108.2 crore, Y/Y.
14th Oct Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services has announced its second quarter results. The company's Q2 net profit was up at Rs 6.05 crore versus Rs 4.3 crore Q/Q
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15th Oct RIL’s July-September quarter net profit rose 15.8% year-on-year, to Rs 5,703 crore. Net turnover for the quarter rose 35% to Rs 80,790 crore.
17th Oct India’s largest mortgage lender Housing Development Finance Corporation’s (HDFC) net profit rose 20% year-on-year to Rs 971 crore in the September quarter. Total income shot up 37% to Rs 4,077 crore from 2,970 crore year-onyear. The performance is on expected lines. Tata Consultancy Services reported a lower-than-expected 15% year-on-year rise in second quarter net profit at Rs 2,439 crore, amid continued uncertainty in global economy. Revenue for July-September quarter rose 25% from a year ago to Rs 11,634 crore, India’s top software services exporter said late Monday
18th Oct HCL Tech has reported a fall of 2.5% Q/Q in consolidated net profit of Rs 497 crore for the quarter ended September 2011. The company had reported a net profit of Rs 510 crore in the previous quarter. EBITDA margin too declined at 17.1% in the first quarter FY12 as against 18.5% (Q/Q). Revenues jumped 8.16% to Rs 4,651 crore from Rs 4,300 crore quarter-on-quarter
Country's largest two-wheeler maker Hero Moto corp has reported better-thanexpected rise of 19.4% Y/Y in net profit of Rs 604 crore in the quarter ended September 2011. The company had posted a profit of Rs 506 crore in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal. Net sales jumped 28% to Rs 5,784 crore from Rs 4,511 crore year-on-year.
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19th Oct Bajaj Finance has announced its second quarter results. The company's Q2 net profit was up at Rs 87 crore versus Rs 53 crore, year-on-year, Y/Y. Its total income was up at Rs 492 crore versus Rs 320 crore, Y/Y. Essar Ports has announced its second quarter results. The company's Q2 net profit was up at Rs 41 crore versus Rs 11 crore. Its total operating income was at Rs 270 crore
20th Oct Bajaj Auto’s net profit for the second quarter rose lower-than-expected 6% yearon-year at Rs 726 crore hurt by a forex loss incurred on forward contracts. However, revenue surged to its highest ever, riding on the back of strong sales of motorcycles and commercial vehicles. Revenue for July-September rose 21% year-on-year at Rs 5,342 crore.
21st Oct – Godrej Consumer Products second quarter consolidated net profit declined 2.6% year-on-year to Rs 127.71 crore as higher tax expense and a foreign exchange loss offset strong sales growth.
22nd OctAxis Bank’s second quarter (July-September) net profit rose more than 25% year-on-year to Rs 920 crore. This is on the back of a robust growth in net interest income the difference between interest earned and interest expended climbed 24% to Rs 2,007 crore, driven by a forecast-beating loan book growth.
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25th Oct – AVT Natural Products has reported a sales turnover of Rs 63.87 crore and a net profit
of
Rs
16.05
crore
for
the
quarter
ended
Sep
'11.
For the quarter ended Sep 2010 the sales turnover was Rs 30.52 crore and net profit was Rs 3.19 crore.
28th OctNational Hydroelectric Power Corporation NHPC has reported a net profit of Rs 966 crore in the second quarter of FY12, a growth of 40% as compared to Rs 690 crore in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal. Net sales jumped 47.66% to Rs 1,831 crore in the July-September period of 2011 versus Rs 1,240 crore in same quarter in the previous year.
31st OctState-owned Bank of Baroda has reported a net profit of Rs 1,166 crore for the quarter ended September FY12, a better-than-expected increase of 14.4% as compared to Rs 1,019.3 crore in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal. Net interest income jumped 26% to Rs 2,567 crore from Rs 2,038.1 crore yearon-year. Provisions in the July-September quarter of FY12 increased to Rs 483 crore from Rs 185 crore in a year ago period. Net non-performing assets (NPAs) stood at 0.47% as against 0.38% and gross NPAs came in at 1.41% versus 1.39% yearon-year
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TECHNICAL VIEW Moving averages Moving Averages
20 Day
50 Day
100 Day
200 Day
Daily Weekly
5054 5204
5015 5471
5216 5423
5390 4789
Fibonacci retracement levels (Weekly) SCRIPT
0.0%
23.6%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
100.0%
NIFTY
4720
5105
5345
5535
5720
6348
Monthly Pivot SCRIPT
R4
R3
R2
R1
P
S1
S2
S3
S4
NIFTY
7177
6506
5834
5598
5163
4926
4492
3820
3149
Weekly Pivot SCRIPT
R4
R3
R2
R1
P
S1
S2
S3
S4
NIFTY
6227
5912
5597
5479
5282
5164
4967
4652
4337
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Weekly Analysis :- S&P CNX NIFTY
Nifty has been in a correction phase for the past one year and presently forming a downtrend channel for the past one year taking support/resistance of two crucial trendline. The month of November will be a crucial one as it is now in its upward trajectory of its channel and global cues will play a crucial role in deciding its next move. Nifty currently has breached its 38.2% retracement level and it may further extend uptrend to test the upward resistance line which is around 5460-5500. Nifty has made a double bottom and a “W” formation break out and if calculate a technical target; it comes at 5500 where it will test the resistance of 50% retracement level of its fall from 6335 to 4720. In coming weeks, If Nifty breaches this upward resistance line and the level of 5550-5570, then a upward trend can be seen and it may retrace to 61.8% - 5740. On the contrary, if it test the level of 5500 and starts to trade below 5300, then cam slide down to 4700-4600 level sharply to complete its downward channel and test its support line.
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November will be a crucial month for Nifty as it will decide its trend for the coming few months as it is on the verge of a break out, if global cues support it will, though it may also slide down to continue its downward channel and any jitters from euro zone will help. For the coming month upward resistance for Nifty will be 5500-5550 and a break above it will lead it to 5700 while on the downside 5300-5280 will be level to watch out and a break below it could take nifty sharply to 4700-4600.
Bank Nifty Moving averages Moving Averages
20 Day
50 Day
100 Day
200 Day
Daily Weekly
9483 10108
9520 10721
10210 10403
10596 8456
Fibonacci retracement levels (Weekly) SCRIPT
0.0%
23.6%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
100.0%
BANK NIFTY
13320
10945
9505
8305
7150
3290
Monthly Pivot SCRIPT
R4
R3
R2
R1
P
S1
S2
S3
S4
BANK NIFTY
13609
12250
10891
10425
9532
9066
8173
6814
5455
Weekly Pivot SCRIPT
R4
R3
R2
R1
P
S1
S2
S3
S4
BANK NIFTY
11777
11105
10433
10196
9761
9524
9089
8417
7745
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Weekly Analysis
As we said last month, Bank Nifty took a support of 200 DMA and breached its 38.2% retracement level of its uptrend from 3370 to 13320 in November 2010. Bank Nifty is now in a short term correction phase and witnessing a pullback rally in the near term. ďƒ˜ Bank Nifty currently has given a closing above its 38.2% retracement level and given a slight positive view on banking space in the near term, it will continue to extend its upward momentum in coming weeks. ďƒ˜ As Bank Nifty has given a comfortable closing above 38.2% level, it may extend the trend and next resistance for it will be 23.6% level which comes at 10945. ďƒ˜ Bank Nifty if breaks this upward resistance line and gives a closing above it then can extend upward momentum to 11400 while if reverses then can correct to 9400 and 8900 in coming month. Bank Nifty this month has given closing above its 38.2% retracement level and is expected to trade above this and if in coming weeks and we can see further upside and it may test the retracement level of 23.6% which comes around 10900. But, If Bank Nifty reverses and start trading below 9700-9600 then can slide down to 8900 level.
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BSE Sensex Moving averages Moving Averages
20 Day
50 Day
100 Day
200 Day
Daily Weekly
16804 17333
16693 18236
17366 18081
17964 15967
Fibonacci retracement levels (Weekly) SCRIPT
0.0%
23.6%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
100.0%
SENSEX
21108
17935
16000
14395
12850
7697
Monthly Pivot SCRIPT
R4
R3
R2
R1
P
S1
S2
S3
S4
SENSEX
23641
21478
19315
18560
17152
16397
14989
12826
10663
Weekly Pivot SCRIPT
R4
R3
R2
R1
P
S1
S2
S3
S4
SENSEX
20567
19557
18547
18175
17537
17165
16527
15517
14507
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Weekly Analysis
Sensex this month is expected to be sustain the consolidation phase or more clearly may dissent to go down due to following reasons: it has made a solid support at 200 DMA which will act as a major support and in the near term may sustain it and continue its upward momentum. Sensex currently is following a channel and facing stiff resistance at 23.6% retracement level of its upward trend from 8K to 21K. If it sustains the level of 18000 in the coming weeks and gives a closing above it then can further extend to 19000 and 19800. While, if it reverses and breaks the level of 17200 and trades below it then can slide back to 16300 and 15400 in the coming month. November will be a crucial month to decide trend for Sensex while global cues will also play a crucial role coupled with FII’s and DII’s activity. Upward resistance for Sensex in the coming month will be 18400 and 18900 and closing above it may see a upward momentum while support will be 17300; breaking of which will lead Sensex to the level of 16300 and 15400 level. www.capitalheight.com
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